Suchergebnisse

Con los cambios demográficos, económicos y geográficos presentes en las ciudades y sus poblaciones, así como en el ambiente y los recursos naturales de los que depende la sociedad, es cada vez más urgente explorar las posibles formas en que se manifiesta la resiliencia urbana.Era urbana Las ciudades que construimos hoy representan las condiciones de vida no solo para sus habitantes actuales, sino para las generaciones por venir. Se espera que la población urbana continúe aumentando; para 2050, 60% de la población mundial podría vivir en ciudades. A menudo son las urbes pequeñas y medianas las que crecen con más rapidez, y son también las que disponen de menos recursos sociales, financieros y de infraestructura para hacer frente al crecimiento. El incremento poblacional humano ocurre principalmente en África y algunos países de Asia y Latinoamérica. Por el contrario, en varios lugares de Europa, América del Norte y Asia (por ejemplo, Japón) las poblaciones en ciertas ciudades han comenzado a disminuir. A medida que comience a estabilizarse la tasa de urbanización en Latinoamérica, se espera que la tendencia de crecimiento de las ciudades disminuya, principalmente en mega ciudades, al mismo tiempo que continúa el crecimiento urbano en ciudades pequeñas y medianas. Entonces, es un hecho que vivimos en una era urbana, y por lo tanto resulta urgente construir ciudades que pueden apoyar adecuadamente la salud y el bienestar de la población. El recién adoptado Objetivo de Desarrollo Sostenible de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) tiene como meta "hacer que las ciudades y los asentamientos humanos sean incluyentes, seguros, resilientes y sostenibles". La palabra resiliencia se utiliza cada vez más en la investigación y la formulación de políticas. Se refiere a la capacidad de un sistema para hacer frente a los cambios y al mismo tiempo seguir desarrollándose. La palabra sistema puede referirse tanto a los sistemas sociales, ecológicos o a la interrelación de ambos en un sistema socioecológico. Con los cambios demográficos, económicos y geográficos presentes en las ciudades y sus poblaciones, así como en el ambiente y los recursos naturales de los que depende la sociedad, es cada vez más urgente explorar las posibles formas en que se manifiesta la resiliencia urbana.Resiliencia de los ecosistemas se refiere a qué tanta perturbación (como tormentas, incendios o contaminantes) un ecosistema puede soportar sin cambiar a un estado cualitativamente diferente. Es la capacidad de autorreconstrucción que tiene un sistema afectado por impactos y eventos inesperados.La resiliencia social es la capacidad de las comunidades humanas para resistir y recuperarse del estrés generado por cambios ambientales, sociales, económicos o políticos.La resiliencia de sociedades y ecosistemas que sustentan la vida es crucial para mantener las opciones que aseguren el desarrollo humano futuro. Fuente: http://www.stockholmresilience.org/21/research/resilience-dictionary.html Sostenibilidad y sistemas socioecológicos Los encargados de tomar decisiones y los habitantes de las zonas urbanas tienen que ser capaces de gestionar los cambios sociales y ecológicos necesarios para que las ciudades continúen desarrollándose sin impactar negativamente ni a los sistemas sociales ni a los ecológicos, es decir, se debe apoyar la resiliencia urbana. La velocidad de urbanización que enfrentamos y el aumento del consumo que acompaña el crecimiento, aunados al cambio climático, son factores que han modificado sustancialmente la configuración de las funciones de los sistemas naturales y sociales, incrementando la presión hacia ellos; en consecuencia, se requiere mayor capacidad de los sistemas para enfrentar los cambios e incertidumbres que se generan. Las ciudades no solo tienen que ser resilientes, también tienen que ser más sostenibles con el fin de asegurar el bienestar social y preservar la naturaleza para las próximas décadas. Los cambios constantes son una realidad tanto para los sistemas sociales (la demografía, la religión o las tasas de empleo) como para los sistemas ecológicos (cambios en los patrones de precipitación, temperaturas, composición de especies). Al estar relacionadas entre sí la sociedad y la naturaleza, el cambio en una provoca efectos en la otra de forma inevitable, lo que a su vez causa reacciones de retroalimentación. Las decisiones políticas, de consumo y el estilo de vida de los ciudadanos suelen conducir a cambios en la cobertura del suelo, o bien, producir emisiones que afectan la calidad del aire o del agua a nivel local o global. Las transformaciones naturales, como son los aumentos de temperatura, pueden afectar la composición biológica, es decir, las especies y los individuos dentro de las especies, las funciones ecológicas de todos y los servicios que la biodiversidad y los ecosistemas proporcionan. Los cambios sociales y naturales pueden ser la causa o el efecto, y en gran medida determinan los requisitos en los que ambos sistemas operan.Los espacios verdes ayudan a aumentar el valor de la propiedad, a revitalizar los barrios deteriorados, mejorar la vida en las calles y la estética de la ciudad, así como brindar opciones de recreación al aire libre. Estos espacios atraen a la gente, hacen que las personas salgan de sus casas, fomentan el sentimiento de comunidad y como consecuencia, la disminución del crimen. Fuente: PNUMA. http://www.unep.org/training/downloads/PDFs/Siting_green_infrastructure.pdfInfraestructura verde y ecosistemas urbanos Los ecosistemas sustentados en la biodiversidad proporcionan servicios esenciales, como la polinización, la comida, la purificación del aire y del agua dulce. Hay un creciente consenso que indica que los elementos de la naturaleza en las ciudades son, y se espera que sean, cada vez más importantes para apoyar el bienestar humano. Estos elementos o "infraestructura verde", son de origen natural o también planeados. Constituyen parte del paisaje al aire libre, por ejemplo, parques, ríos, áreas de bosque o jardines al exterior de los edificios, o bien, pueden ser paisajes de interior, como muros verdes o jardines privados. La infraestructura verde emplea elementos de los sistemas naturales, mientras que la infraestructura gris tradicional es hecha por el ser humano. Ejemplos de infraestructura verde incluyen la creación de arrecifes de ostras para la protección costera y juncales que tratan las aguas residuales industriales. Fuente: The Nature Conservancy. http://www.nature.org/about-us/working-withcompanies/companies-we-work-with/building-aLos paisajes urbanos son un apoyo a los ecosistemas y a la biodiversidad dentro y alrededor de las áreas urbanas. Es el caso de las abejas, que disponen de una dieta más diversa en las ciudades que aquellas que viven fuera de estas, sobre todo en áreas con monocultivos. De igual modo, la presencia de elementos naturales en las urbes hace que el entorno de vida sea más agradable y habitable. Los árboles y zonas verdes proporcionan sombra y retienen aguas pluviales, además de que contribuyen a la purificación del aire. Los parques se consideran espacios para la recreación y el ejercicio, actividades que impactan positivamente la salud mental y física de las personas. Además, sirven como nodos de conexión para los ecosistemas, proporcionando hábitats y rutas de transporte para las especies de plantas y animales dentro y a través de la ciudad. El valor económico de todas estas funciones ambientales es tal que no puede ser estimado. Las personas han desarrollado una serie de soluciones ingenieriles que sustituyen la ausencia de tales funciones, sin embargo, suelen ser alternativas mucho más costosas en su mantenimiento y desarrollo. El valor de la infraestructura verde no solo se encuentra en el monto económico de los bienes suministrados; también reside en el ahorro financiero de mantener o mejorar la salud de las personas, y en la prevención de catástrofes o efectos nocivos de los cambios en los sistemas socioecológicos en las ciudades. Por ejemplo, si los humedales alrededor de Nueva Orleans hubieran quedado intactos, podrían haber contribuido a mitigar significativamente los desastres ocasionados por el huracán Katrina que destruyó gran parte de la ciudad, con enormes costos en salud e infraestructura. La transición a ciudades más verdes, sostenibles y bajas en emisiones de carbono, es rentable. Serían necesarios alrededor de 270 mil millones de dólares al año para acelerar la transición mundial a una economía de bajas emisiones de carbono a través de energías limpias, ciudades más compactas, mejores sistemas de transporte público y un mejor uso de la tierra. Esto se puede comparar con los 6 billones de dólares al año que habrá que derrochar en una economía de alto carbono, como la actual, para la creación de infraestructura dentro de la ciudades que sea útil en la agricultura y la generación de energía durante los próximos 15 años, según el informe "Mejor crecimiento, mejor clima", elaborado en el marco de la Cumbre del Clima de la ONU.La transición a ciudades más verdes, sostenibles y bajas en emisiones de carbono, es rentable. Serían necesarios alrededor de 270 mil millones de dólares al año para acelerar la transición mundial a una economía de bajas emisiones de carbono a través de energías limpias, ciudades más compactas, mejores sistemas de transporte público y un mejor uso de la tierra. Esto se puede comparar con los 6 billones de dólares al año que habrá que derrochar en una economía de alto carbono, como la actual, para la creación de infraestructura dentro de la ciudades que sea útil en la agricultura y la generación de energía durante los próximos 15 años, según el informe "Mejor crecimiento, mejor clima", elaborado en el marco de la Cumbre del Clima de la ONU. La resiliencia y la sostenibilidad en el tiempo y en el espacio Las ciudades tienen que ser cada vez más funcionales y autosuficientes, ya que la demanda de recursos en el mundo va en aumento, mientras que los recursos clave para el sustento humano están en pleno decrecimiento. La infraestructura verde, es decir, la presencia de elementos naturales en las ciudades, jugará un rol cada vez más importante en el apoyo a la capacidad de recuperación urbana y la sostenibilidad en las ciudades del futuro. En lugar de ser puntos aislados en un entorno natural, las ciudades son parte del paisaje que las rodea. El Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo estima que Latinoamérica tendrá que duplicar su infraestructura en la capacidad y generación de energía para el año 2030, a un costo de por lo menos 430 mil millones de dólares. También se ha estimado que la región podría producir más de seis veces la capacidad mundial de energía con la explotación de la energía solar, eólica, marina, geotérmica y de biomasa. https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/5744 El Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo estima que Latinoamérica tendrá que duplicar su infraestructura en la capacidad y generación de energía para el año 2030, a un costo de por lo menos 430 mil millones de dólares. También se ha estimado que la región podría producir más de seis veces la capacidad mundial de energía con la explotación de la energía solar, eólica, marina, geotérmica y de biomasa. https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/5744 La resiliencia y la sustentabilidad demandan que las ciudades sean entendidas como un nodo socioecológico dinámico en el espacio y el tiempo. Por ejemplo, el agua de uso corriente en las ciudades se origina en áreas montañosas rurales, lejos de los centros urbanos en donde es consumida; entonces, los cambios en la estructura de los bosques de donde viene el líquido pueden afectar directamente su acceso en las zonas urbanas. En otro ejemplo, las ciudades en expansión por lo general cubren las tierras agrícolas más fértiles, al mismo tiempo que demandan más alimentos que a su vez necesitan mayores recursos para ser producidos, como ocurre con la producción de carne. Apoyar la agricultura urbana, en donde los habitantes de las ciudades cultiven sus propios alimentos dentro o cerca de las ciudades, puede llegar a ser de suma importancia en la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional de los diferentes sectores de la sociedad. Los agricultores urbanos han demostrado que son capaces de obtener entre el 40 y el 60% de sus alimentos de sus propios jardines. Fuente: http://www.unep.org/training/downloads/PDFs/Siting_green_infrastructure.pdf Actualmente, la expansión de la mancha urbana es uno de los mayores retos de las ciudades, sobre todo por el crecimiento de los asentamientos irregulares que generalmente –no siempre– son habitados por ciudadanos de bajos recursos. Se requieren políticas que satisfagan las necesidades de todos los sectores de la población, buscando incrementar los estándares de vida de los más desprotegidos, en lugar de aumentar los estándares de los que más tienen; acciones que deben atenderse hoy y en el futuro. Ciudades en el entorno integral del paisaje Dado que cada ciudad sigue su propia trayectoria de desarrollo y existe dentro de fronteras socioecológicas determinadas, no hay una solución única que se adapte a todas las zonas para asegurar la resiliencia y sostenibilidad. En lugar de ello, se tienen lineamientos generales sobre que es, cómo se busca y se implementa la resiliencia y la sostenibilidad dentro de un marco de trabajo para cada contexto local, con el fin de aprovechar la capacidad de cada ciudad y región (para más detalles ver el video: Applying Resilience Thinking en el portal web de Sustainable Development Goals). Se reconoce que el aumento de los elementos naturales en las ciudades y el buen estado de salud de los ecosistemas alrededor de ellas, son cruciales para crear urbes que aseguren el bienestar de seres humanos y ecosistemas. Percibir a las ciudades como un sitio donde la naturaleza no es rentable, hace que esta se vea como una prioridad secundaria, por debajo de las construcciones hechas por el ser humano, como edificios de oficinas y carreteras. Esta visión es cada vez más obsoleta conforme el mundo se hace más urbano. El reciente evento Parques para el Planeta - Naturaleza, Salud y la Nueva Generación Urbana (Parks for the Planet - Nature, Health and the New Urban Generation), celebrado en Salzburgo en octubre de 2015,1 es un ejemplo de esta nueva visión de ciudad. Como resultado del foro se publicó el documento El reto de Salzburgo para la naturaleza, salud y una nueva generación urbana (The Salzburg Challenge for Nature, Health and a New Urban Generation) en el cual los participantes de diferentes sectores de la sociedad se comprometieron a trabajar juntos y con los tomadores de decisiones, las empresas, las organizaciones no gubernamentales y el público en general para abordar activamente las funciones y potencialidades de las zonas verdes en las urbes. Ha llegado el momento de considerar a las ciudades como organismos vivos y dinámicos que forman parte integral del paisaje y sus alrededores, entendiendo que sus funciones dependen de los sistemas socioecológicos locales, regionales y mundiales y que sus interacciones afectan tanto a sistemas más grandes como a la salud de los habitantes. Los líderes urbanos y los pobladores que primero se den cuenta del potencial de dicho conocimiento serán quienes definan el camino en la nueva era urbana resistente, sostenible, habitable y segura. 1Foro organizado por la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (IUCN), PNUD, FMAM, ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability (Gobiernos Locales por la Sustentabilidad) y World Urban Parks. Maria Schewenius es académica del Centro de Resiliencia de la Universidad de Estocolmo, Suecia (maria.schewenius@su.se). Ecofronteras, 2016, vol. 20, núm. 57, pp. 2-5, ISSN 2007-4549. Licencia CC (no comercial, no obras derivadas); notificar reproducciones a llopez@ecosur.mx

Vast areas have been subject to an active nature protection policy in Norway over the past decades. Sixteen per cent of the land mass on the mainland is now protected in one way or another, and national parks take up the greatest share of the protected land. In many regions throughout the world, national parks offer excellent opportunities for outdoor recreation and tourism activities. The social values of contact with nature and opportunities for nature-based activities are considered to be a key element of Norwegian /North European culture and tradition. Nature-based tourism is a rapidly growing sector of the tourism industry in many parts of the world. National parks have played a major part in this growth in many countries, because they tend to be associated with relatively pristine nature and beautiful scenery and they attract visitors seeking nature-based experiences. This PhD project explores the social dimension of sustainable tourism development in Norwegian national parks. The study reflects the paradigmatic shift in national park management policy, where the traditional view of protecting nature from human use is gradually being replaced by a vision of safeguarding both nature conservation and recreation/tourism interests. The increasing emphasis on the interests of visitors and local communities related to tourism activities suggests that social values are moving to the forefront of discourses on sustainable tourism development in national parks. The political backdrop for this new integrated management philosophy is rooted in the assumption that nature-based tourism in and around Norwegian national parks (which are typically located in remote mountain regions), represents promising opportunities for rural areas that are affected by the marginalisation of traditional industries, such as agriculture and forestry. Increasing visitation and more nature-based tourism products can potentially generate local jobs and income, and tourism therefore represents a way of stemming the outmigration of the resident populations. The integration of broader social interests in the emerging management regime has also arisen from criticisms of the traditional, expertdriven, segregated and top-down national park management strategies. The inclusion of local, experience-based knowledge, the involvement of community stakeholder interests and the anchoring of management processes and solutions at the local level are now being given political attention. In examining the social preconditions for sustainable tourism development in national parks, this PhD project analyses tourism interests in various ways: Visitor desires and concerns and the viewpoints of local tourism entrepreneurs are taken into consideration, as well as the views of other rural interests with a stake in the utilisation of national parks. Nasjonalparkriket ("The National Park Realm") was chosen as the case study area for the empirical study. This mountainous region is situated in the northern part of Oppland County in Norway. It comprises six municipalities with very high land coverage of protected areas, including six national parks. Visitors' Nature Orientations were examined through two surveys to achieve a detailed understanding of their main types of nature appreciation. The findings illustrate tourists' nature-related motives, values and attitudes and also their behavioural preferences in a nature setting. German, Dutch and Danish motor tourists visiting Norway were surveyed when leaving the country by ferry and four vital dimensions of Nature Orientations were identified: Inspiration, Recreation, Challenge and Sightseeing. Inspiration represents existential values and a strong emotional connectedness with landscape and nature; Recreation signifies the desire for tranquillity, peacefulness and physical relaxation in natural surroundings; Challenge represents the desire for demanding physical exercise and risk taking, and Sightseeing refers to interests in seeing sights and the appreciation of comfort aspects. An additional visitor survey among actual visitors in Nasjonalparkriket, supported these findings but the Sightseeing dimension was re-labelled Comfort due to the relative importance of the comfort aspect in the fourth dimension. Tourism facilities (and visitors' 'quests' for such facilities) in and around national parks can potentially match the different Nature Orientations, and the border survey showed that each of the four identified principal Quest for Facilities dimensions related to distinct nature interests: The Nature Orientations Challenge and Sightseeing supported the expressed wishes for extension and upgrading of "Tracks & signposts" within national parks. The desire for more grand scale "Infrastructure & services" was upheld by Nature Orientations Challenge and Sightseeing but was contested by Recreation. Moreover, "Food & accommodation" products mainly located outside parks were found to be particularly appealing to the Nature Orientation Sightseeing. The expansion of "Tours & interpretation" services and facilities in natural surroundings was supported by the Inspiration or Sightseeing orientations. Tourists who seek pleasures in natural surroundings tend to express great concern for the environment. In the survey among actual visitors in Nasjonalparkriket, respondents generally expressed a very low degree of acceptance for negative ecological impacts resulting from tourism activities and installations in the national parks. The Nature Orientation dimension Inspiration was associated with a particularly great concern for the wild reindeer habitat, raptor nesting and attrition on vegetation. On the other hand, both Comfort (Sightseeing) and Challenge orientations showed less environmental concern compared to visitors in general. The Quest for Facilities dimensions "Infrastructure & service" and "Food & accommodation" (i.e. tourism product interests upheld by Comfort (Sightseeing) and Challenge according to the border survey) fell into the latter domain, and were also (in relative terms) related to a higher degree of acceptance of negative ecological impacts. Tourists' Nature Orientations, Quest for Facilities and views on potential nature destruction (as revealed in the two surveys) represent important knowledge for managers who are looking to develop national parks into viable tourism attractions. In addition, local tourism entrepreneurs need to be aware of their guests' interests and concerns if they want to succeed. Local tourism stakeholders are often totally dependent on the natural resources contained in the protected areas. National park management policies and regulations represent opportunities and constraints for tourism activities, and thus have a direct influence on the prospects for tourism expansion. Qualitative interviews with local tourism stakeholders in Rondane and Jotunheimen national parks (within Nasjonalparkriket) revealed that, despite their general support for national parks status, they felt that the management planning processes and outcomes left a lot to be desired. First, the tourism representatives reported only minor involvement in the national park planning processes, and that they had very little input into the final planning arrangements. Second, they felt that management rules and regulations restricted opportunities for tourism related business operations within the parks. Third, respondents perceived a lack of competence among managers concerning business management and tourism development issues. In Rondane National Park, doubts were expressed about the necessity of the measures implemented to protect the wild reindeer, and the scientific evidence supporting these measures. In Jotunheimen National Park, respondents thought that sustainable tourism development should be more explicitly included in management visions and goals for the national park, and they called for a visitor strategy to be implemented. They also expressed a desire to be involved in the co-management of the park. Considerable investment in communication and relationship-building is likely to be required in these two parks to foster durable social links and trustworthy planning partnerships between responsible managers and local tourism stakeholders. Similar opinions were identified among local tourism stakeholders in a focus group study in the two national parks mentioned above. The traditional rural users (i.e. local landowners, farmers, etc.) of the national parks are social interests defining the freedom of action with respect to existing tourism activities and also new tourism industry initiatives. When exploring the opinions of both groups (i.e. local tourism entrepreneurs and traditional rural users) about tourism in the protected areas, there were few direct clashes of interest. However, contradictory views were evident amongst groups when discussing the need for genuine tourism growth in the area. The local tourism entrepreneurs demonstrated an 'openness to change' in order to sustain their businesses and the local community, whereas the traditional rural user interests had a more sceptical attitude and were afraid that new developments could change the character of their countryside and undermine rural lifestyles and the integrity of their local community. Viable directions for tourism development should therefore be negotiated between the two stakeholder interests. The main contribution of this dissertation is to highlight social preconditions for sustainable tourism development in a Norwegian national park setting. Both 'outsider' and 'insider' social perspectives (i.e. visitor and local stakeholder interests), are equally taken into consideration. Existing opportunities and constraints are discussed and issues of crucial importance for tourism advancement in the national parks are identified. ; Store naturområder er blitt vernet av norske myndigheter i de siste tiårene. 16 prosent av landarealene på Norges fastland er nå vernet i en eller annen form, og nasjonalparkene utgjør den største andelen av disse verneområdene. I mange land er nasjonalparkene svært godt tilrettelagte for rekreasjons- og turistaktiviteter. De sosiale verdiene som er knyttet til befolkningens nærhet til natur og mulighetene for naturbaserte aktiviteter og opplevelser blir ofte ansett som et kjerneelement i norsk/skandinavisk kultur og tradisjon. Naturbasert turisme er en raskt voksende sektor i mange deler av verden, og nasjonalparkene blir gjerne assosiert med godt bevart, verdifull natur og vakre landskaper, som tiltrekker seg et økende antall besøkende i mange land. I dette PhD-prosjektet rettes søkelyset mot den sosiale dimensjonen ved bærekraftig reiselivsutvikling i norske nasjonalparker. Studien reflekterer det pågående paradigmatiske skiftet i nasjonalparkpolitikken, der det klassiske naturvernet mot menneskelig bruk og påvirkning gradvis blir erstattet av forestillinger om at naturforvaltning i denne typen områder bør handle om å ivareta både naturhensyn og reiselivsinteresser. Den voksende oppmerksomheten omkring de besøkendes behov og den økende vektleggingen av lokalsamfunnsinteressene som er relatert til turistaktivitetene indikerer at de sosiale aspektene gradvis får større betydning i diskusjoner om bærekraftig reiselivsutvikling i nasjonalparkene. Det generelle politiske bakteppet for denne nyere, sosialt integrerte forvaltningsfilosofien er knyttet til en antakelse om at norske nasjonalparker, som gjerne er lokalisert i relativt perifere fjellregioner, representerer næringsmuligheter for bygdesamfunn som er blitt marginalisert i økonomisk henseende som følge av tilbakegang i tradisjonelle næringer som jordbruk og skogbruk. Mer besøk i nasjonalparkene og tilpassede naturbaserte reiselivstilbud kan potensielt skape arbeidsplasser lokalt og tilføre lokalsamfunnene nye inntekter. Utvikling av reiselivet fremstår derfor som et egnet redskap for å motvirke utflytting fra disse områdene. Innlemmingen av bredere sosiale interesser i det nye forvaltningsregimet kan også ses på som et svar på kritikken av den dominerende naturvitenskapelige, ekspertpregede og top-downorienterte forvaltningstradisjonen. Inkludering av både lokal og erfaringsbasert kunnskap, involvering av lokalsamfunnsinteresser og sikring av lokalt forankrede forvaltningsprosesser og -beslutninger blir nå i stadig større grad viet politisk oppmerksomhet. I denne studien av sosiale aspekter ved bærekraftig reiselivsutvikling i nasjonalparker rettes søkelyset både mot de besøkendes tilretteleggingsønsker og mot deres omtanke for naturmiljøet. I tillegg analyseres synspunktene på reiselivsutvikling i nasjonalparkene blant lokale reiselivsentreprenører og andre lokale brukerinteresser. Nasjonalparkriket i Nord-Gudbrandsdalen ble valgt som case for den empiriske undersøkelsen. Denne fjellregionen ligger i den nordlige delen av Oppland fylke, og omfatter seks kommuner med seks nasjonalparker, der en svært stor andel av arealet består av vernede landområder. Gjennom to surveyundersøkelser ble turistenes såkalte naturorienteringer belyst. Resultatene illustrerer turistenes naturrelaterte motiver, verdier og holdninger samt deres atferdspreferanser i et naturmiljø. Tyske, nederlandske og danske bilturister ble i den første surveyundersøkelsen bedt om å besvare et spørreskjema ved utreise fra Norge med ferge, og fire typer av naturorienteringer ble identifisert i denne grenseundersøkelsen: Inspirasjon, Rekreasjon, Utfordring og Sightseeing. Inspirasjon representerer eksistensielle verdier og en sterk emosjonell tilknytning til natur og landskaper. Rekreasjon står for ønsker om stillhet, ro og fysisk avkobling i naturomgivelser. Utfordring gjenspeiler ønsker om fysisk krevende aktiviteter og en viss risikoorientering. Sightseeing reflekterer interessen for å se attraksjoner og understreker betydningen av komfort på reisen. Den andre surveyundersøkelsen, en spørreundersøkelse blant faktisk besøkende i Nasjonalparkriket, bekreftet disse funnene, men her ble Sightseeing omskrevet til Komfort pga den sterke betydningen av komfortaspektene på den fjerde dimensjonen. De besøkendes uttrykte ønsker om tilrettelegginger av fasiliteter i og rundt nasjonalparkene kan i utgangspunktet tenkes å være knyttet til de ulike naturorienteringene. Grenseundersøkelsen blant de utenlandske bilturistene viste at hver av de fire identifiserte typene av fasilitetsønsker var relatert til hver av de fire typene av naturinteresser: Naturorienteringene Utfordring og Sightseeing understøttet ønskene om å utvide og oppgradere "Stier & skilter" inne i nasjonalparkene. Ønskene om mer storskala "Infrastruktur & service" ble opprettholdt av naturorienteringene Utfordring og Sightseeing, men var i liten grad relatert til Rekreasjon. Tilrettelagte turistprodukter innen "Mat & overnatting" utenfor nasjonalparkenes grenser hadde først og fremst appell til naturorienteringen Sightseeing, mens "Organiserte turer & formidling" i naturomgivelser var relatert til naturorienteringene Inspirasjon og Sightseeing. Turister som søker seg til naturområder er gjerne opptatt av vern av naturmiljøet. I undersøkelsen blant besøkende i Nasjonalparkriket uttrykte respondentene generelt sett lav grad av aksept for negative økologiske konsekvenser som følge av turistaktiviteter og turistmessig infrastruktur i nasjonalparkene. Naturorienteringsdimensjonen Inspirasjon var forbundet med en spesielt restriktiv holdning til negativ påvirkning av villreinhabitatet, rovfuglenes redebygging og slitasje på vegetasjonen. På den andre siden viste både orienteringene knyttet til Komfort (Sightseeing) og Utfordring større grad av aksept for negative økologiske virkninger. De som ønsket "Infrastruktur og service" og "Mat & overnatting" (dvs. fasilitetsønsker opprettholdt av Komfort /Sightseeing og Utfordring i følge grenseundersøkelsen) falt inn i den siste kategorien, der det var en relativt sett høy grad av aksept for negative økologiske virkninger. Turisters naturorienteringer, fasilitetsønsker og oppfatninger av potensielle naturødeleggelser, slik det ble avdekket i de to surveyundersøkelsene, er viktig kunnskap for forvaltningsmyndigheter som ønsker å utvikle nasjonalparkene til bærekraftige turismeattraksjoner. I tillegg må lokale reiselivsentreprenører ha kjennskap til gjestenes interesser og innsikt i deres miljøengasjement dersom de skal kunne overleve. De lokale næringsaktørene er dessuten helt avhengige av naturressursene som finnes inne i nasjonalparkene. Forvaltningspolitikk og -reguleringer representerer muligheter og begrensninger for turismeaktiviteter og har dermed direkte betydning for utviklingen av reiselivet i nasjonalparkene. Kvalitative intervjuer med lokale reiselivsaktører i Rondane og Jotunheimen nasjonalparker (som begge er lokalisert innenfor Nasjonalparkriket) viste at disse entreprenørene så fundamentale mangler ved både forvaltningsplanprosesser og - bestemmelser, til tross for at de generelt støttet nasjonalparkstatusen for disse fjellområdene: For det første rapporterte aktørene om bare minimal, reell involvering i nasjonalparkenes forvaltningsplanprosesser, og de uttrykte at de hadde hatt liten innflytelse på de endelige vedtakene som ble fattet. For det andre opplevde de at reguleringene begrenset mulighetene for turistaktiviteter inne i nasjonalparkene. For det tredje pekte de på at forvaltningen mangler kompetanse både på forretningsvirksomhet og reiselivsutvikling. I Rondane ble det uttrykt tvil om nødvendigheten av de strenge tiltakene for å beskytte villreinen og det vitenskapelige grunnlaget for disse initiativene. I Jotunheimen mente de lokale reiselivsaktørene at bærekraftig reiselivsutvikling burde bli eksplisitt inkludert i forvaltningens visjoner og målsettinger for nasjonalparken, og de ønsket iverksetting av en besøksstrategi for dette verneområdet. De ville også gjerne bli delaktige i forvaltningen av parken. Betydelige investeringer i kommunikasjon og relasjonsbygging er trolig påkrevd i disse to parkene for å utvikle tillitsfulle og varige sosiale bånd mellom forvaltningsmyndighetene og de lokale reiselivsaktørene. Liknende synspunkter ble identifisert blant lokale reiselivsentreprenører i en fokusgruppeundersøkelse i de to nevnte nasjonalparkene. De tradisjonelle bruksinteressene (dvs. lokale grunneiere, bønder etc.) i nasjonalparkene er sosiale interesser som kan tenkes å sette rammer for reiselivsaktivitetene og dermed også påvirke nye initiativ i reiselivsnæringen. Analysene av alle fokusgruppene (dvs. både blant de lokale reiselivsaktørene og de tradisjonelle brukerinteressene i de to parkene) viste at det var få eksisterende konflikter mellom de ulike interessene. Men ulike synspunkter kom til uttrykk når behovet for fortsatt vekst i turismen i området ble diskutert. De lokale reiselivsaktørene viste en "åpenhet for forandring" for å videreutvikle reiselivet og livskraften i lokalsamfunnet, mens de tradisjonelle brukerinteressene hadde en mer skeptisk holdning og var engstelige for at rask reiselivsvekst kunne endre områdets karakter og underminere lokal livsstil og bygdesamfunnets integritet. Bærekraftige løsninger for videre reiselivsutvikling i området bør derfor framforhandles mellom disse ulike lokale brukerinteressene. Det viktigste bidraget i dette PhD-prosjektet har vært å analysere de sosiale forutsetningene for bærekraftig reiselivsutvikling i norske nasjonalparker. De sosiale aspektene er belyst gjennom både "utenfra"- og "innenfra"-perspektiver, dvs. at interessene til så vel besøkende turister som lokale næringsutøvere er inkludert i denne avhandlingen. ; Norges Bondelag ; Nasjonalparkriket

Among the various natural hazards, mass movements (MM) are probably the most damaging to the natural and human environment in the Mediterranean countries, including Lebanon which represents a good case study of mountainous landscape. Although affecting vast areas in the country, the phenomenon was not studied at regional scale, and related maps are still lacking. Therefore, this research deals with the use of remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques in studying MM in Lebanon. In this context, the first part reviews existing knowledge on the topics of mass movements (MM) specifically in the Mediterranean region, and defines research gaps. It exposes the diverse types of MM, their magnitudes, the causative agents and their bad consequences. It clarifies confusions related to MM-terms (hazard, susceptibility, risk, etc.), and compares the efficiencies of the most used methods for MM susceptibility/hazard zonation. It includes also a statement on remote sensing and GIS benefits and constraints in mass movement studies, pointing out possible ways of research. The second part is dedicated to the detailed description of the study area "the Mediteranean slopes of central to north Lebanon" within Lebanon. Physical/morphodynamic and socioeconomic characteristics of the area are exposed, as well as the natural hazards, MM events, their socio-economic impacts and mitigation measures. All previous studies about MM hazard in Lebanon are reviewed. The studied area, extending from the Mediterranean coast to around 3000 m elevation, covers ~36% of the total area of Lebanon. It represents the geoenvironmental diversity of this country in terms of geology, soil, hydrography, land cover and climate. It is characterized by problematic human activities (e.g., chaotic urban expansion, artificial recharge of groundwater, overgrazing, forest fire) enhancing environmental decline and inducing MM, with minimal government control. The third part compares the applicability of different satellite sensors (Landsat TM, IRS, SPOT4) and preferred image processing techniques (False Color Composite "FCC", Pansharpen, Principal component analysis "PCA", Anaglyph) for the mapping of MM recognized as landslides, rock/debris falls and earth flows. Results from the imagery have been validated by field surveys and analysis of IKONOS imagery (1 m) acquired in some locations witnessing major MM during long periods. Then, levels of accuracies of detected MM from satellite imageries were plotted. This study has demonstrated that the anaglyph produced from the two panchromatic stereo-pairs SPOT4 images remains the most effective tool setting the needed 3-D properties for visual interpretation and showing maximum accuracy of 69%. The PCA pan-sharpen Landsat TM-IRS image gave better results in detecting MM, among other processing techniques, with maximum accuracy level of 62%. The errors in interpretation fluctuate not only according to the processing technique, but also due to the difference in MM type. They are minimal once 3D anaglyph SPOT4 is considered, varying between 31% (landslides), 36% (rock and debris falls) and reaching 46% in the case of earth and debris flows. The fourth part explores relationships between MM occurrence and different factor terrain parameters. Parameters expressed by: 1- preconditioning factors, like: elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, slope curvature, lithology, proximity to fault line, karst type, distance to quarries, soil type, distance to drainage line, distance to water sources, land cover/use, and proximity to roads, and 2- triggering MM factors, like: rainfall quantity, seismic events,floods and forest fires, were correlated with MM using GIS-approaches. This study indicates, depending on bivariate remote sensing and GIS statistical correlations (Kendall Tau-b correlation), that lithology is the most influencing on MM occurrence, having the highest correlation with other parameters (i.e. 7 times correlated at 1% level of significance and 3 times at 5%). It also shows that statistical correlations to mass movements exist best between parameters at the following decreasing order of importance: soil type/distance to water sources (acting similarly on MM occurrence), karst/distance to quarries/land cover-use, proximity to faults, slope gradient/proximity to roads/floods, seismic events, elevation/slope aspect/forest fires. These correlations were verified and checked through field observations and explained using univariate statistical correlations. Therefore, they could be extrapolated to other Mediterranean countries having similar geoenvironmental conditions. The fifth part proposes a mathematical decision making method - Valuing Analytical Bi- Univariate (VABU) that considers two-level weights for mapping MM susceptibility/hazard (1:50,000 cartographic scale) within the study area. The reliability of this method is examined through field surveys and depending on a GIS comparison with other statistical methods - Valuing accumulation Area (VAA) (depending on one weight level) and Information Value (InfoVal) (requiring detailed measurements of MM areas). Three susceptibility maps were derived using preconditioning parameters, while hazard maps were produced from triggering ones. The coincidence values of overlapping susceptibility maps were found to be equal to 47.5% (VABU/VAA), 54% (VABU/InfoVal) and 38% (VAA/InfoVal). The agreement between hazard maps showed closer values than susceptibility ones, oscillating between 36.5% (VAA/InfoVal), 39% (VABU/VAA), and 44 % (VABU/InfoVal). Field verification indicates that the total precision of the produced susceptibility maps ranges from 52.5% (VAA method), 67.5% (InfoVal method) and 77.5% (VABU method). This demonstrates the efficiency of our method, which consequently can be adopted for predictive mapping of MM susceptibility/hazard in other areas in Lebanon and may be easily extrapolated using the functional capacities of GIS. The sixth part predicts the geographic distribution and volume of block falls (m3) across the study area using GIS decision-tree modelling. Such mapping was unavailable in Lebanon, but also in many other countries putting effort on landslide research rather than other types of MM. Several decision-tree models were developed using (1) all terrain parameters, (2) topographic parameters only, (3) geologic parameters only, and adopting various processing techniques (pruned and unpruned trees). The best regression tree model combined all parameters and explained 80% of the variability in field blocks falls' measurements. The unpruned model built using four geological parameters (lithology, soil type, proximity to fault line, and karst type) seems also interesting, classifying 68% of block falls and referring to a small amount of input data (4 parameters). The produced predictive quantitative block falls' map at 1:50,000 appears extremely useful for decision-making, helping adoption of mitigation measures to reduce the occurrence of harmful block falls. The seventh part focuses on monitoring MM activity through integrating space borne radar data and Global Positioning System (GPS) techniques. ERS radar imageries were processed using InSAR and permanent scatters techniques. The analysis showed difficulties in detecting ground deformations due to MM. Nevertheless, the analysis is still in its preliminary stage and future planned work will take into consideration other manipulating procedures for detecting the displacements. On the other hand, a GPS installation in Hammana area; one of the Lebanese villages lying in a major landslide, was conducted. Two campaigns were raised, but results are still lacking since there is not enough data accumulation. More observations are still needed to build up a comprehensive picture on the direction and velocity of the movement. ; Parmi les aléas naturels, les mouvements de terrain (MT) sont probablement les plus nuisibles à l'environnement naturel et humain, notamment dans les pays méditerranéens, incluant le Liban qui représente un bon cas d'étude de région montagneuse. Ce phénomène n'a pas été étudié à l'échelle régionale bien qu'il affecte de vastes zones dans ce pays, et les cartes d'aléa manquent encore. La recherche présentée ici est consacrée à l'utilisation des techniques de télédétection et des systèmes d'informations géographiques (SIG), pour l'étude des MT au Liban. La première partie passe en revue les connaissances existantes sur le thème des mouvements de terrain (MT), plus spécifiquement dans la région méditerranéenne, et définit les lacunes de recherche. Elle expose les divers types existants de MT, leurs magnitudes, les agents causatifs, et leurs effets. Elle clarifie la terminologie utilisée pour les MT (aléa, susceptibilité, risque, etc.), et compare les méthodes les plus utilisées pour la cartographie de l'aléa/susceptibilité aux MT. Elle présente aussi un état des avantages et problèmes de la télédétection et du SIG dans les études de mouvements de terrain, en insistant sur les voies possibles de recherche. La deuxième partie est consacrée à la description détaillée de la région d'étude qui couvre les versants méditerranéens du nord du Liban central. Les caractéristiques physiques/morphodynamiques et socio-économiques de cette région sont exposées, ainsi que les aléas naturels, les événements de MT, les impacts socio-économiques et les mesures de conservation. Toutes les études sur l'aléa MT au Liban sont revisitées. La région d'étude, s'étendant de la côte méditerranéenne jusqu'à 3000 m d'altitude, couvre à peu près 36 % de la superficie totale du Liban. Elle est représentative de la diversité géo-environnementale de ce pays en termes de géologie, sol, hydrographie, occupation du sol et climat. Elle se caractérise par des activités humaines problématiques (par exemple une expansion urbaine chaotique, la recharge artificielle des eaux souterraines, un surpâturage, des incendies de forêt), accroissant la dégradation de l'environnement et induisant les MT, avec un contrôle gouvernemental minime. La troisième compare l'efficacité de différents capteurs satellitaires à résolutions variées (Landsat TM, IRS, SPOT4) et diverses techniques de traitement d'image (composition colorée, fusion, analyse en composantes principales ACP, vision stéréoscopique) pour la détection visuelle des mouvements de terrain classés en glissements, éboulements de blocs rocheux et de débris, et coulées de boue. Les résultats ont été validés sur le terrain et en analysant des images IKONOS (1 m) acquises en certaines localités menacées par des MT sur de longues périodes. Ensuite, les niveaux de précision de la détection des MT à partir des images satellitaires ont été calculés. Cette étude a montré que l'anaglyphe produit à partir des images panchromatiques stéréo SPOT4 reste l'outil le plus efficace grâce aux caractéristiques 3D jouant un rôle essentiel dans l'interprétation visuelle et montrant un niveau de précision (pourcentage des MT détectés et vérifiés sur le terrain) maximal de 69 %. De plus, l'image de fusion Landsat TM-IRS, calculée par ACP, fournit des résultats de détection des MT meilleurs que les autres techniques, avec un niveau de précision de 62 %. Les erreurs d'interprétation fluctuent non seulement en fonction de la technique de traitement utilisée, mais aussi en fonction des types de MT. Elles sont minimes quand l'anaglyphe (3D) SPOT4 est pris en considération, variant de 31 % (glissements), 36 % (éboulements de blocs rocheux et de débris) à 46 % dans le cas des coulées de boue. La quatrième partie explore les relations entre l'occurrence de MT et les paramètres du terrain. Ces paramètres sont: 1- les facteurs de prédisposition, comme l'altitude, la pente en gradient, l'aspect de pente, la courbure de pente, la lithologie, la proximité aux failles, le type de karst, la distance aux carrières, le type de sol, la distance aux réseaux de drainage, la distance aux sources, l'occupation/utilisation du sol et la proximité aux routes, et 2- les facteurs déclenchants, comme la quantité de pluies, les événements sismiques, les inondations et les incendies de forêt, qui ont été corrélés avec les MT en utilisant les approches SIG. Cette étude montre, en se basant sur les corrélations statistiques bi-variées satellitaires et SIG (corrélation Kendal Tau-b), que la lithologie est ce qui influence le plus l'occurrence des MT, puisqu'elle a la corrélation la plus élevée avec les autres paramètres (7 fois corrélée à un niveau de signification de 1 %, et 3 fois à 5 %). Elle montre aussi que les corrélations statistiques entre ces paramètres et les mouvements de terrain existent suivant l'ordre d'importance décroissant suivant : type de sol/distance aux sources (agissant de manière similaire sur l'occurrence des MT), karst/distance aux carrières/occupation/utilisation du sol, proximité aux failles, gradient de pente/proximité aux routes/inondations, événements sismiques, altitude/aspect de pente/incendies de forêt. Ces corrélations sont vérifiées sur le terrain et expliquées en utilisant des corrélations statistiques uni-variées. Par conséquent, elles peuvent être extrapolées à d'autres pays méditerranéens caractérisés par des conditions géoenvironnementales similaires. La cinquième partie propose une méthode mathématique décisionnelle (méthode analytique bi-univariée d'évaluation ou "Valuing Analytical Bi-Univariate (VABU)") qui considère deux niveaux de pondération pour la cartographie de l'aléa/susceptibilité des MT (échelle 1/50000) dans la région d'étude. La fiabilité de cette méthode est examinée sur le terrain et en la comparant avec d'autres méthodes statistiques - Valuing accumulation Area (VAA) (un seul niveau d'évaluation) and Information Value (InfoVal) (nécessitant des mesures détaillées des MT). Trois cartes de susceptibilité sont dérivées en utilisant les facteurs conditionnant l'occurrence des MT, tandis que les cartes d'aléa sont produites à partir des facteurs déclenchants. Les valeurs de coïncidence de superposition des cartes de susceptibilité sont de 47,5 % (VABU/VAA), 54 % (VABU/InfoVal) et 38% (VAA/InfoVal), respectivement. L'accord entre les cartes d'aléas montre des valeurs proches de celles des cartes de susceptibilité, variant entre 36,5 % (VAA/InfoVal), 39 % (VABU/VAA), et 44 % (VABU/InfoVal). La validation sur le terrain indique que la précision totale des cartes de susceptibilité produites varie entre 52,5% (méthode VAA), 67,5% (méthode InfoVal) et 77,5% (méthode VABU). Cela démontre l'efficacité de notre méthode qui peut être adoptée pour une cartographie prédictive de l'aléa et de la susceptibilité des MT dans d'autres régions au Liban, et peut être aussi aisément extrapolée en utilisant les capacités fonctionnelles du SIG. La sixième partie prédit la distribution géographique et le volume des blocs rocheux (m3) dans la région d'étude en utilisant la modélisation suivant un arbre décisionnel. Une telle cartographie est indisponible au Liban, mais aussi dans d'autres pays qui portent plutôt leur effort sur la recherche des glissements plutôt que les autres types de MT. Plusieurs modèles d'arbres décisionnels ont été développés en utilisant, (1) tous les paramètres de terrain, (2) les paramètres topographiques uniquement, (3) les paramètres géologiques, et en adoptant plusieurs techniques de traitement. Le meilleur arbre de régression combine tous les paramètres et explique 80 % de la variabilité dans les mesures des blocs rocheux sur le terrain. Le modèle construit en utilisant les quatre paramètres géologiques (lithologie, type de sol, proximité aux failles et type de karst) parait aussi intéressant car il classe 68 % des blocs rocheux tout en se référant à un petit nombre de données d'entrée (4 paramètres). La carte produite de 'prédiction quantitative des blocs rocheux' à l'échelle du 1/50 000 apparait extrêmement utile pour la décision, aidant à l'adoption des mesures de conservation afin de réduire l'occurrence de movements nuisibles de blocs rocheux. La septième partie s'intéresse à la surveillance de l'activité des MT à travers l'intégration des données spatiales radar et des techniques GPS (Système de positionnement global). Les données radar ERS sont traitées en utilisant les techniques InSAR et des réflecteurs permanents. Cette analyse montre des difficultés pour la détection des MT. Cependant, elle est jusqu'à présent préliminaire, et un plan de travail futur prendra en considération d'autres traitements pour la détection des déplacements. D'un autre côté, une installation GPS a été effectuée dans la région de Hammana, un village libanais menacé par un grand glissement. Deux campagnes ont été rassemblées, mais les résultats manquent encore puisqu'il n'y a pas des données accumulées suffisantes. Plus d'observations sont nécessaires afin de construire une représentation compréhensive de la direction et de la vitesse du mouvement.

Among the various natural hazards, mass movements (MM) are probably the most damaging to the natural and human environment in the Mediterranean countries, including Lebanon which represents a good case study of mountainous landscape. Although affecting vast areas in the country, the phenomenon was not studied at regional scale, and related maps are still lacking. Therefore, this research deals with the use of remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques in studying MM in Lebanon. In this context, the first part reviews existing knowledge on the topics of mass movements (MM) specifically in the Mediterranean region, and defines research gaps. It exposes the diverse types of MM, their magnitudes, the causative agents and their bad consequences. It clarifies confusions related to MM-terms (hazard, susceptibility, risk, etc.), and compares the efficiencies of the most used methods for MM susceptibility/hazard zonation. It includes also a statement on remote sensing and GIS benefits and constraints in mass movement studies, pointing out possible ways of research. The second part is dedicated to the detailed description of the study area "the Mediteranean slopes of central to north Lebanon" within Lebanon. Physical/morphodynamic and socioeconomic characteristics of the area are exposed, as well as the natural hazards, MM events, their socio-economic impacts and mitigation measures. All previous studies about MM hazard in Lebanon are reviewed. The studied area, extending from the Mediterranean coast to around 3000 m elevation, covers ~36% of the total area of Lebanon. It represents the geoenvironmental diversity of this country in terms of geology, soil, hydrography, land cover and climate. It is characterized by problematic human activities (e.g., chaotic urban expansion, artificial recharge of groundwater, overgrazing, forest fire) enhancing environmental decline and inducing MM, with minimal government control. The third part compares the applicability of different satellite sensors (Landsat TM, IRS, SPOT4) and preferred image processing techniques (False Color Composite "FCC", Pansharpen, Principal component analysis "PCA", Anaglyph) for the mapping of MM recognized as landslides, rock/debris falls and earth flows. Results from the imagery have been validated by field surveys and analysis of IKONOS imagery (1 m) acquired in some locations witnessing major MM during long periods. Then, levels of accuracies of detected MM from satellite imageries were plotted. This study has demonstrated that the anaglyph produced from the two panchromatic stereo-pairs SPOT4 images remains the most effective tool setting the needed 3-D properties for visual interpretation and showing maximum accuracy of 69%. The PCA pan-sharpen Landsat TM-IRS image gave better results in detecting MM, among other processing techniques, with maximum accuracy level of 62%. The errors in interpretation fluctuate not only according to the processing technique, but also due to the difference in MM type. They are minimal once 3D anaglyph SPOT4 is considered, varying between 31% (landslides), 36% (rock and debris falls) and reaching 46% in the case of earth and debris flows. The fourth part explores relationships between MM occurrence and different factor terrain parameters. Parameters expressed by: 1- preconditioning factors, like: elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, slope curvature, lithology, proximity to fault line, karst type, distance to quarries, soil type, distance to drainage line, distance to water sources, land cover/use, and proximity to roads, and 2- triggering MM factors, like: rainfall quantity, seismic events,floods and forest fires, were correlated with MM using GIS-approaches. This study indicates, depending on bivariate remote sensing and GIS statistical correlations (Kendall Tau-b correlation), that lithology is the most influencing on MM occurrence, having the highest correlation with other parameters (i.e. 7 times correlated at 1% level of significance and 3 times at 5%). It also shows that statistical correlations to mass movements exist best between parameters at the following decreasing order of importance: soil type/distance to water sources (acting similarly on MM occurrence), karst/distance to quarries/land cover-use, proximity to faults, slope gradient/proximity to roads/floods, seismic events, elevation/slope aspect/forest fires. These correlations were verified and checked through field observations and explained using univariate statistical correlations. Therefore, they could be extrapolated to other Mediterranean countries having similar geoenvironmental conditions. The fifth part proposes a mathematical decision making method - Valuing Analytical Bi- Univariate (VABU) that considers two-level weights for mapping MM susceptibility/hazard (1:50,000 cartographic scale) within the study area. The reliability of this method is examined through field surveys and depending on a GIS comparison with other statistical methods - Valuing accumulation Area (VAA) (depending on one weight level) and Information Value (InfoVal) (requiring detailed measurements of MM areas). Three susceptibility maps were derived using preconditioning parameters, while hazard maps were produced from triggering ones. The coincidence values of overlapping susceptibility maps were found to be equal to 47.5% (VABU/VAA), 54% (VABU/InfoVal) and 38% (VAA/InfoVal). The agreement between hazard maps showed closer values than susceptibility ones, oscillating between 36.5% (VAA/InfoVal), 39% (VABU/VAA), and 44 % (VABU/InfoVal). Field verification indicates that the total precision of the produced susceptibility maps ranges from 52.5% (VAA method), 67.5% (InfoVal method) and 77.5% (VABU method). This demonstrates the efficiency of our method, which consequently can be adopted for predictive mapping of MM susceptibility/hazard in other areas in Lebanon and may be easily extrapolated using the functional capacities of GIS. The sixth part predicts the geographic distribution and volume of block falls (m3) across the study area using GIS decision-tree modelling. Such mapping was unavailable in Lebanon, but also in many other countries putting effort on landslide research rather than other types of MM. Several decision-tree models were developed using (1) all terrain parameters, (2) topographic parameters only, (3) geologic parameters only, and adopting various processing techniques (pruned and unpruned trees). The best regression tree model combined all parameters and explained 80% of the variability in field blocks falls' measurements. The unpruned model built using four geological parameters (lithology, soil type, proximity to fault line, and karst type) seems also interesting, classifying 68% of block falls and referring to a small amount of input data (4 parameters). The produced predictive quantitative block falls' map at 1:50,000 appears extremely useful for decision-making, helping adoption of mitigation measures to reduce the occurrence of harmful block falls. The seventh part focuses on monitoring MM activity through integrating space borne radar data and Global Positioning System (GPS) techniques. ERS radar imageries were processed using InSAR and permanent scatters techniques. The analysis showed difficulties in detecting ground deformations due to MM. Nevertheless, the analysis is still in its preliminary stage and future planned work will take into consideration other manipulating procedures for detecting the displacements. On the other hand, a GPS installation in Hammana area; one of the Lebanese villages lying in a major landslide, was conducted. Two campaigns were raised, but results are still lacking since there is not enough data accumulation. More observations are still needed to build up a comprehensive picture on the direction and velocity of the movement. ; Parmi les aléas naturels, les mouvements de terrain (MT) sont probablement les plus nuisibles à l'environnement naturel et humain, notamment dans les pays méditerranéens, incluant le Liban qui représente un bon cas d'étude de région montagneuse. Ce phénomène n'a pas été étudié à l'échelle régionale bien qu'il affecte de vastes zones dans ce pays, et les cartes d'aléa manquent encore. La recherche présentée ici est consacrée à l'utilisation des techniques de télédétection et des systèmes d'informations géographiques (SIG), pour l'étude des MT au Liban. La première partie passe en revue les connaissances existantes sur le thème des mouvements de terrain (MT), plus spécifiquement dans la région méditerranéenne, et définit les lacunes de recherche. Elle expose les divers types existants de MT, leurs magnitudes, les agents causatifs, et leurs effets. Elle clarifie la terminologie utilisée pour les MT (aléa, susceptibilité, risque, etc.), et compare les méthodes les plus utilisées pour la cartographie de l'aléa/susceptibilité aux MT. Elle présente aussi un état des avantages et problèmes de la télédétection et du SIG dans les études de mouvements de terrain, en insistant sur les voies possibles de recherche. La deuxième partie est consacrée à la description détaillée de la région d'étude qui couvre les versants méditerranéens du nord du Liban central. Les caractéristiques physiques/morphodynamiques et socio-économiques de cette région sont exposées, ainsi que les aléas naturels, les événements de MT, les impacts socio-économiques et les mesures de conservation. Toutes les études sur l'aléa MT au Liban sont revisitées. La région d'étude, s'étendant de la côte méditerranéenne jusqu'à 3000 m d'altitude, couvre à peu près 36 % de la superficie totale du Liban. Elle est représentative de la diversité géo-environnementale de ce pays en termes de géologie, sol, hydrographie, occupation du sol et climat. Elle se caractérise par des activités humaines problématiques (par exemple une expansion urbaine chaotique, la recharge artificielle des eaux souterraines, un surpâturage, des incendies de forêt), accroissant la dégradation de l'environnement et induisant les MT, avec un contrôle gouvernemental minime. La troisième compare l'efficacité de différents capteurs satellitaires à résolutions variées (Landsat TM, IRS, SPOT4) et diverses techniques de traitement d'image (composition colorée, fusion, analyse en composantes principales ACP, vision stéréoscopique) pour la détection visuelle des mouvements de terrain classés en glissements, éboulements de blocs rocheux et de débris, et coulées de boue. Les résultats ont été validés sur le terrain et en analysant des images IKONOS (1 m) acquises en certaines localités menacées par des MT sur de longues périodes. Ensuite, les niveaux de précision de la détection des MT à partir des images satellitaires ont été calculés. Cette étude a montré que l'anaglyphe produit à partir des images panchromatiques stéréo SPOT4 reste l'outil le plus efficace grâce aux caractéristiques 3D jouant un rôle essentiel dans l'interprétation visuelle et montrant un niveau de précision (pourcentage des MT détectés et vérifiés sur le terrain) maximal de 69 %. De plus, l'image de fusion Landsat TM-IRS, calculée par ACP, fournit des résultats de détection des MT meilleurs que les autres techniques, avec un niveau de précision de 62 %. Les erreurs d'interprétation fluctuent non seulement en fonction de la technique de traitement utilisée, mais aussi en fonction des types de MT. Elles sont minimes quand l'anaglyphe (3D) SPOT4 est pris en considération, variant de 31 % (glissements), 36 % (éboulements de blocs rocheux et de débris) à 46 % dans le cas des coulées de boue. La quatrième partie explore les relations entre l'occurrence de MT et les paramètres du terrain. Ces paramètres sont: 1- les facteurs de prédisposition, comme l'altitude, la pente en gradient, l'aspect de pente, la courbure de pente, la lithologie, la proximité aux failles, le type de karst, la distance aux carrières, le type de sol, la distance aux réseaux de drainage, la distance aux sources, l'occupation/utilisation du sol et la proximité aux routes, et 2- les facteurs déclenchants, comme la quantité de pluies, les événements sismiques, les inondations et les incendies de forêt, qui ont été corrélés avec les MT en utilisant les approches SIG. Cette étude montre, en se basant sur les corrélations statistiques bi-variées satellitaires et SIG (corrélation Kendal Tau-b), que la lithologie est ce qui influence le plus l'occurrence des MT, puisqu'elle a la corrélation la plus élevée avec les autres paramètres (7 fois corrélée à un niveau de signification de 1 %, et 3 fois à 5 %). Elle montre aussi que les corrélations statistiques entre ces paramètres et les mouvements de terrain existent suivant l'ordre d'importance décroissant suivant : type de sol/distance aux sources (agissant de manière similaire sur l'occurrence des MT), karst/distance aux carrières/occupation/utilisation du sol, proximité aux failles, gradient de pente/proximité aux routes/inondations, événements sismiques, altitude/aspect de pente/incendies de forêt. Ces corrélations sont vérifiées sur le terrain et expliquées en utilisant des corrélations statistiques uni-variées. Par conséquent, elles peuvent être extrapolées à d'autres pays méditerranéens caractérisés par des conditions géoenvironnementales similaires. La cinquième partie propose une méthode mathématique décisionnelle (méthode analytique bi-univariée d'évaluation ou "Valuing Analytical Bi-Univariate (VABU)") qui considère deux niveaux de pondération pour la cartographie de l'aléa/susceptibilité des MT (échelle 1/50000) dans la région d'étude. La fiabilité de cette méthode est examinée sur le terrain et en la comparant avec d'autres méthodes statistiques - Valuing accumulation Area (VAA) (un seul niveau d'évaluation) and Information Value (InfoVal) (nécessitant des mesures détaillées des MT). Trois cartes de susceptibilité sont dérivées en utilisant les facteurs conditionnant l'occurrence des MT, tandis que les cartes d'aléa sont produites à partir des facteurs déclenchants. Les valeurs de coïncidence de superposition des cartes de susceptibilité sont de 47,5 % (VABU/VAA), 54 % (VABU/InfoVal) et 38% (VAA/InfoVal), respectivement. L'accord entre les cartes d'aléas montre des valeurs proches de celles des cartes de susceptibilité, variant entre 36,5 % (VAA/InfoVal), 39 % (VABU/VAA), et 44 % (VABU/InfoVal). La validation sur le terrain indique que la précision totale des cartes de susceptibilité produites varie entre 52,5% (méthode VAA), 67,5% (méthode InfoVal) et 77,5% (méthode VABU). Cela démontre l'efficacité de notre méthode qui peut être adoptée pour une cartographie prédictive de l'aléa et de la susceptibilité des MT dans d'autres régions au Liban, et peut être aussi aisément extrapolée en utilisant les capacités fonctionnelles du SIG. La sixième partie prédit la distribution géographique et le volume des blocs rocheux (m3) dans la région d'étude en utilisant la modélisation suivant un arbre décisionnel. Une telle cartographie est indisponible au Liban, mais aussi dans d'autres pays qui portent plutôt leur effort sur la recherche des glissements plutôt que les autres types de MT. Plusieurs modèles d'arbres décisionnels ont été développés en utilisant, (1) tous les paramètres de terrain, (2) les paramètres topographiques uniquement, (3) les paramètres géologiques, et en adoptant plusieurs techniques de traitement. Le meilleur arbre de régression combine tous les paramètres et explique 80 % de la variabilité dans les mesures des blocs rocheux sur le terrain. Le modèle construit en utilisant les quatre paramètres géologiques (lithologie, type de sol, proximité aux failles et type de karst) parait aussi intéressant car il classe 68 % des blocs rocheux tout en se référant à un petit nombre de données d'entrée (4 paramètres). La carte produite de 'prédiction quantitative des blocs rocheux' à l'échelle du 1/50 000 apparait extrêmement utile pour la décision, aidant à l'adoption des mesures de conservation afin de réduire l'occurrence de movements nuisibles de blocs rocheux. La septième partie s'intéresse à la surveillance de l'activité des MT à travers l'intégration des données spatiales radar et des techniques GPS (Système de positionnement global). Les données radar ERS sont traitées en utilisant les techniques InSAR et des réflecteurs permanents. Cette analyse montre des difficultés pour la détection des MT. Cependant, elle est jusqu'à présent préliminaire, et un plan de travail futur prendra en considération d'autres traitements pour la détection des déplacements. D'un autre côté, une installation GPS a été effectuée dans la région de Hammana, un village libanais menacé par un grand glissement. Deux campagnes ont été rassemblées, mais les résultats manquent encore puisqu'il n'y a pas des données accumulées suffisantes. Plus d'observations sont nécessaires afin de construire une représentation compréhensive de la direction et de la vitesse du mouvement.

La calidad de los alimentos consumidos por el ser humano y por los animales está determinada, entre otros, por dos factores que tienen lugar al inicio de la cadena de producción. Por un lado, la expansión agrícola influye como consecuencia del gran número de plaguicidas que se utilizan en la agricultura como herramientas para el control de plagas y para incrementar los rendimientos de los cultivos. Por otro lado, los procesos de intensificación de la producción animal requieren de disponer gran cantidad de alimentos conservados que se almacenan en condiciones muy variables y son propensos al desarrollo fúngico y la producción de un gran número de micotoxinas. La combinación de ambos, los plaguicidas y las micotoxinas, puede afectar no solamente la salud y la producción de los animales que son los primeros expuestos, sino eventualmente también a las personas que consumen alimentos producidos por esos animales, como la leche. El control de materias primas y productos en la etapa inicial de la cadena de producción es, por lo tanto, de importancia fundamental.Las actividades desarrolladas para la concreción de la presente tesis estuvieron enmarcadas en dos proyectos de investigación interdisciplinares. Uno denominado ?Residuos y contaminantes en cadenas de agroalimentos prioritarias de la región central santafesina? (Proyecto ANPCyT-PICT) cuyo objetivo principal era generar y perfeccionar métodos avanzados para la determinación de plaguicidas y contaminantes fúngicos, y aplicarlos en estudios de residualidad en muestras de leche cruda y alimentos vegetales para ganado. El otro fue un proyecto de cooperación binacional Argentina-República Checa denominado ?Técnicas analíticas innovadoras para la evaluación de inocuidad de alimentos y piensos? (Proyecto MINCyT-MEYS) uno de cuyos objetivos era la aplicación de metodologías multi-residuo multi-clase de amplio espectro para efectuar estudios de campo sobre la transferencia de micotoxinas y plaguicidas desde los alimentos consumidos por el ganado hacia la leche.En ese contexto, luego de una introducción general el presente manuscrito se organizó en 4 capítulos principales. Los Capítulos 2 y 3 tienen una componente principal de índole químico-analítica centrada en la matriz leche destinada a la obtención de métodos multi-residuo multi-clase para la determinación de micotoxinas y plaguicidas en ese alimento y su aplicación en un estudio de campo (Proyecto ANPCyT-PICT). Los Capítulos 4 y 5, centrados en piensos como matrices de estudio, no focalizan en el desarrollo de metodologías analíticas sino en la aplicación de métodos de amplio espectro para evaluar la incidencia de la residualidad de dichos contaminantes en una diversidad de alimentos que componen la dieta del ganado lechero en la zona central de Argentina (Proyecto MINCyT-MEYS).El Capítulo 2 describe, en una primera parte, la optimización y validación de una metodología basada en columnas de inmunoafinidad con cromatografía líquida acoplada a espectrometría de masa (IAC-UHPLC-MS/MS) para la determinación de aflatoxina M1 en leche y su aplicación para el análisis de 160 muestras de leche tomadas de 40 establecimientos productores de la zona central de la Provincia de Santa Fe durante 4 estaciones climáticas a lo largo de un año. Se encontró una prevalencia de AFM1 en las muestras analizadas cercana al 50% con niveles medios de concentración de 0,038 y un máximo de 0,293 µg/L. Aunque no se registraron excesos en el límite máximo establecido en Argentina (0,5 µg/L) se verificaron violaciones al LM de la Unión Europea (0,05 µg/kg) en el 8% de las muestras. En la segunda parte del Capítulo se describe la optimización de una metodología alternativa al método IAC basada en el enfoque QuEChERS para integrar la determinación de AFM1 con la de residuos de plaguicidas en un mismo método de extracción. Tras varias etapas de optimización, el método propuesto mostró un desempeño analítico con cifras de mérito compatibles con las normativas de Mercosur y la Unión Europea.El Capítulo 3 describe la optimización y validación de una metodología QuEChERS-UHPLC-MS/MS para la determinación multi-residuo multi-clase de residuos de plaguicidas y micotoxinas en leche, y su posterior aplicación en al análisis de 80 muestras de leche tomadas de los mismos establecimientos referidos anteriormente durante dos períodos climáticos. El método optimizado demostró parámetros de desempeño que satisfacen los requerimientos de las normativas de Argentina y de otros países. En el análisis de muestras de leche se encontró mayor prevalencia de insecticidas organofosforados como clorpirifos y diazinon, y en menor medida otros como atrazina, acetamiprid, carbendazim, pirimifos-metilo, entre otros. Adicionalmente, la posterior incorporación de un instrumento GC-MS/MS en las instalaciones del PRINARC permitió analizar los extractos de las mismas muestras ampliando así el conjunto de compuestos determinados. De esa forma, se encontraron también residuos de plaguicidas organoclorados como heptacloro o isómeros de DDT, prohibidos hace más de dos décadas, y una alta ocurrencia de endosulfán-sulfato, de prohibición más reciente en Argentina.En el Capítulo 4 se describe la determinación de residuos de plaguicidas en una amplia variedad de piensos que componen las dietas del ganado lechero. La estrategia analítica orientada a enfoques de amplio espectro consistió en la determinación de 350 compuestos mediante una metodología analítica QuEChERS-UHPLC-MS/MS (análisis realizado en República Checa) y la posterior determinación de 160 plaguicidas en las mismas muestras replicando el procedimiento de extracción pero con determinación por GC-MS/MS (análisis realizado en Argentina). De los 420 plaguicidas estudiados en total 50 se encontraron en las muestras analizadas, siendo el 62% insecticidas, el 20% herbicidas y el 18% restante fungicidas. Clorpirifos, metolacloro y difenilamina fueron los plaguicidas de mayor ocurrencia entre los insecticidas, herbicidas y fungicidas, respectivamente. Respecto al análisis de muestras, en el 72% de las mismas se encontraron residuos de plaguicidas (n=54), siendo los alimentos balanceados y las semillas de algodón las matrices con mayor cantidad de compuestos detectados. La concentración más alta de un plaguicida hallado fue para el insecticida piretroide deltametrina en un alimento balanceado (532 µg/kg).En el Capítulo 5 se describe la determinación de micotoxinas en el mismo set de muestras de alimentos vegetales analizadas en el Capítulo 4 y a partir del mismo procedimiento de extracción, integrando así la determinación simultánea de gran cantidad de compuestos (multi-residuo) de diferente origen (multi-clase). A partir del mismo extracto QuEChERS utilizado en el análisis de residuos de plaguicidas, se determinó un conjunto de 56 metabolitos fúngicos incluyendo micotoxinas tradicionales, conjugadas o enmascaradas, y micotoxinas emergentes. Se encontró que el 100% de las muestras analizadas contenía al menos 1 micotoxina, y del total de compuestos incluidos en el alcance del método se identificaron 38 (68%). Además de las micotoxinas con incidencia histórica en este tipo de alimentos en la región (aflatoxinas, fumonisinas, zearalenona, deoxinivalenol), se hallaron micotoxinas emergentes como eniantinas, toxinas de Alternaria y beauvericina que no habían sido previamente estudiadas. En algunos casos de verificaron excesos a los límites máximos establecidos por la UE para micotoxinas en piensos, como AFB1 en granos de maíz (LM=5 µg/kg), FB1 en gluten de trigo (LM=6000 µg/kg) y ZEA en silaje de maíz (LM=3000 µg/kg). Los resultados obtenidos en este trabajo constituyen un aporte importante para un mayor conocimiento sobre la residualidad de plaguicidas y micotoxinas en la primer etapa de la cadena de producción, y pueden ayudar a asistir a los productores respecto al mejoramiento del manejo de sus cultivos y productos almacenados destinados a la alimentación animal, para perfeccionar los programas de monitoreo y control necesarios para la evaluación de riesgo, y para asegurar las medidas de protección de la salud tanto animal como humana relacionadas con la inocuidad de los alimentos. ; Among several factors, food and feed quality for human and livestock consumption is determined by two main circumstances occurring at the beginning of the food chain. On one hand, agricultural expansion demands a high number of pesticides to be used for crop protection and to improve crops yields and this might impact on food and feed quality. On the other hand, farm feeding intensification in livestock production demands higher amounts of conserved forages and concentrated feeds which may be exposed to fungal development and mycotoxin contamination as a consequence of inappropriate storage conditions. Combination of both pesticide residues and mycotoxins could affect not only animal health and production, but eventually human health also, due to consumption of contaminated products of animal origin. The control of commodities and raw primary foods at the beginning of the food supply chain is, hence, of priority importance. The activities involved in the realization of this thesis where framed under two interdisciplinary research projects. One of them, named "Residues and contaminants in priority agrifood supply chains from Santa Fe central region" (ANPCyT-PICT Project) was aimed to develop and perfect advanced analytical methods for the determination of pesticides and fungal contaminants, and to apply them in residuality studies on raw milk and feedstuff samples for dairy cattle. The second project named "Novel analytical techniques for food and feed safety assessment" was a binational cooperation project between Argentina and the Czech Republic and was aimed to the application of wide-scoped multi-residue multi-class methodologies for field studies assessments regarding mycotoxin and pesticide transfer from feed consumed by dairy cattle to milk. In this context, this manuscript was organized in 4 main chapters after a general introduction about the different addressed topics. Chapters 2 and 3 have a main chemical-analytical component focused on milk as the studied matrix and are aimed to the development of multi-residue multi-class methods for the determination of mycotoxins and pesticide residues with further application to field studies (ANPCyT-PICT Project). Centered in vegetal origin feedstuffs analysis, Chapters 4 and 5 are not focused on analytical methodologies developments but on their application of wide-scoped approaches to assess mycotoxin and pesticide residuality on a great variety of typical feed that constitute dairy cattle diets in Argentinean central regions (MINCyT-MEYS Project). Chapter 2 describes, at a first stage, the optimization and validation of an immunoaffinity-based extraction method with liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry determination (IAC-UHPLC-MS/MS) for aflatoxin M1 determination in raw milk and its application for the analysis of 160 milk samples obtained from 40 different milk farms located in Santa Fe province central region throughout four climate season in a one-year field study. AFM1 prevalence in the analyzed samples was close to 50% with mean and maximum concentration levels of 0.038 and 0.293µg/L, respectively. Although no maximum limits violations to Argentinean legislation (0.5µg/L) were observed, European Union ML (0.05µg/L) exceedances were observed in 8% of the cases. Chapter 2 second part describes the optimization of a QuEChERS-based approach as an alternative to the IAC method to integrate AFM1 and pesticide residues determination in a single extraction method. After several optimization steps, the proposed method was validated demonstrating appropriate analytical performance to fulfill Mercosur and European Union legislations. Chapter 3 describes the optimization and validation process of a QuEChERS-UHPLC-MS/MS for the multiresidue multi-class determination of pesticides and mycotoxins in milk, and its later application to the analysis of 80 milk samples obtained from the same above mentioned dairy farms. The optimized method demonstrated good performance characteristics to fulfill analytical requirements set by legislation from Argentina and other countries. The analysis of milk samples revealed a higher prevalence of organophosphate insecticides (mainly chlorpyrifos and diazinon) and to a less extent other compounds such as atrazine, acetamiprid, carbendazim and pirimifos-methyl were also found. In addition, the later incorporation of a GC-MS/MS system to the PRINARC analytical platforms allowed the analysis of the same sample extracts to enhance the determined compounds scope. Thus, residues of some organochlorine pesticide that have been banned for over 2 decades were found such as heptachlor and DDT isomers, and also high occurrence of endosulfan-sulfate which has been more recently banned. Chapter 4 describes the pesticide residues determination in a wide variety of feed samples used in dairy cattle diets. In this case the analytical strategy was focused on wide-scoped approaches and it implied the determination of 350 compounds my means of a QuEChERS-UHPLC-MS/MS analytical methodology (analysis performed in the Czech Republic) together with the further determination of 160 pesticides in the same samples by replicating the extraction procedure but with final determination by GC-MS/MS (analysis performed in Argentina). From the total 420 different pesticides studied 50 of them were found in the analyzed samples, being 62% of them insecticides, 20% herbicides and 18% fungicides. Chlorpyrifos, metholachlor and diphenylamine were the pesticides with major occurrence from the insecticide, herbicide and fungicide families, respectively. Regarding sample analysis, pesticide residues were found in 72% of them (n=54), being compound feeds and cotton seeds the feed types with higher amount of detected compounds. The highest concentration of a single pesticide in an individual sample was due to the pyrethroid insecticide deltamethrin in a compound feed sample (532µg/kg). Chapter 5 describes the mycotoxin determination in the same set of feed samples analyzed in Chapter 4, using the same extraction procedure thus integrating simultaneous determination of a great amount of compounds (multi-residue) from different classes and origin (multi-class). From the same sample extracts used for pesticide residues analysis, 56 fungal origin metabolites were determined, including traditional mycotoxins, conjugated or masked mycotoxins and emerging mycotoxins. All of the analyzed samples (100%) evidenced contamination with at least one mycotoxin, and from the total compound included in the analytical scope 38 different mycotoxins were identified (68%). Besides mycotoxins with historical incidence in this types of feed from the studied region (like aflatoxins, fumonisins, zearalenone and deoxynivalenol), other emerging mycotoxins that had not previously been studied were found, such as enniatins, Alternaria toxins and beauvericin. In some cases violations to EU maximum levels for mycotoxins in feeds were observed, as the case of AFB1 in maize grains (ML=5 µg/kg), FB1 in wheat gluten (ML=6000 µg/kg) and ZEA in maize silage (ML=3000 µg/kg). The results obtained from this work constitute an important contribution for a better knowledge about mycotoxin and pesticide residuality in the first stage of the food production chain, and can help to assist producers on the improvement of crops and feed managements, to improve monitoring and control programs for risk assessment and to guarantee safe food and feeds for human and animal health protection. ; Fil: Michlig, Nicolás. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Ingeniería Química. Programa de Investigación y Análisis de Residuos y Contaminantes Químicos; Argentina

[SPA] El crecimiento demográfico, el desarrollo industrial, la expansión de la agricultura de regadío y el aumento de la calidad de vida han dado lugar en los últimos años a una fuerte presión sobre los recursos hídricos. En climas áridos y semiáridos se presentan frecuentes situaciones de déficit hídrico que afectan principalmente a la agricultura, que con un 75% de la demanda total de recursos hídricos representa el mayor consumidor de agua. Por tanto, actualmente es de gran interés el desarrollo de técnicas y herramientas para optimizar el uso de agua, especialmente en la agricultura. Las pérdidas por evaporación en embalses pueden representar una importante pérdida de agua en zonas áridas y semiáridas. Varios estudios a escala mundial señalan la importancia de estas pérdidas de agua. Gökbulak y Özhan (2006) estiman que la evaporación anual en lagos y embalses de Turquía es mayor que la suma del consumo urbano e industrial de dicho país. Craig et al. (2005) indicaron que hasta un 40% del agua almacenada en embalses se pierde por evaporación en muchas regiones de Australia. En el sureste español, la continua expansión de las zonas regables durante las últimas décadas ha dado lugar a un gran aumento de la demanda de recursos hídricos. En la cuenca del Segura (CS), este desarrollo de las zonas de regadío ha supuesto un déficit hídrico estructural de 460 hm3, que afecta a 3,5?105 ha de regadío (Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, 2000). Gran parte de los recursos hídricos de la CS proceden de trasvases de agua desde otras cuencas, dependiendo por tanto de la disponibilidad hídrica en la cuenca de origen, y están sujetos a decisiones políticas que son difíciles de predecir, especialmente en situaciones de sequía. Las comunidades de regantes de la CS reciben sus dotaciones de agua en función de la disponibilidad de recursos y, generalmente, la distribuyen a sus usuarios mediante una organización por turnos. Cada regante debe disponer de un embalse de riego en el que almacenar el agua suministrada durante su turno, para poder regar cuando resulte oportuno y poder hacer frente a periodos sin disponibilidad de recursos. Este tipo de organización en la distribución de las dotaciones, junto a la elevada incertidumbre en el suministro, ha conllevado la construcción masiva de pequeños embalses o balsas de regulación de riego en la CS. La pérdida de agua por evaporación que se produce en estos numerosos embalses no había sido estudiada rigurosamente con anterioridad a este trabajo de investigación. Para poder evaluar la importancia de las pérdidas de agua por evaporación de los embalses de riego de la CS, se ha realizado un estudio detallado. El primer paso ha sido la identificación del número, localización y dimensión de cada uno de los embalses de riego existentes en la CS, que se ha realizado mediante la fotointerpretación de la imagen aérea del vuelo SIGPAC 2003 (http://sigpac.mapa.es/fega/visor/) con el Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG) ArcGis 9.2. Esta imagen ha permitido estimar el área de cada embalse. Además, se ha tenido en cuenta que los embalses se encuentran normalmente por encima de un tercio de su capacidad total con el fin de mantener un cierto nivel de seguridad en caso de periodos de sequía prolongados. Por tanto, a efectos de considerar una superficie evaporante representativa, se ha considerado en los cálculos que los embalses están a dos tercios de su capacidad, S2/3, lo que equivale aproximadamente al 85% de su superficie total, ya que los embalses tienen generalmente taludes con pendiente 1/1. Una vez conocida la localización y dimensión de los embalses, el siguiente paso ha sido la determinación de la evaporación en cada uno de ellos, para posteriormente agregar esta información y obtener el valor de evaporación regional. Un método sencillo para estimar la demanda evaporativa es el uso de tanques evaporímetros estándar Clase A. Para estimar la evaporación de un embalse, E, a partir de datos de evaporación en tanque, Ep, es necesario aplicar un coeficiente de conversión (Kp = E/Ep). Para determinar Kp, hay que tener en cuenta las condiciones climáticas locales y las dimensiones geométricas del cuerpo de agua. Martínez-Álvarez et al. (2007) mostraron que el valor anual de Kp dependía principalmente de la superficie del embalse, no afectando significativamente su profundidad, mientras que la variación espacial de Kp a nivel de cuenca estaba relacionada con el valor anual del déficit de presión de vapor (DPV). La metodología propuesta por Martínez-Álvarez et al. (2007) se ha aplicado para calcular el valor anual de Kp en cada embalse, considerando su superficie (S2/3) y el DPV local de su localización. Se han elaborado mapas de Ep y VPD de la CS para calcular el Kp y la superficie evaporante de cada embalse y, mediante la combinación de toda esta información, estimar su evaporación. En la determinación de la evaporación total en la cuenca y en las distintas zonas hidrológicas se han utilizado técnicas de agregación espacial con GIS. El total de pérdidas por evaporación en los embalses de riego en la CS se ha estimado en 58,5 hm3, lo que corresponde a una lámina de agua evaporada de 1.404 m anuales. Esta cifra representa el 8,3% del agua distribuida para riego durante el periodo de estudio, es más del doble del consumo industrial, equivale a un 27% del consumo urbano y es igual la demanda medioambiental. Teniendo en cuenta el señalado déficit hídrico de la CS, estas cifran ponen de manifiesto la importancia de las pérdidas de agua por evaporación en embalses de riego y la necesidad de plantear posibles soluciones. A escala mundial, los pequeños embalses son muy numerosos y se destinan a usos tan diferentes como la acuicultura, la jardinería, el uso recreativo, el riego, los abrevaderos de ganado, etc. Se estima que cubren en conjunto 77.000 km2 (Downing et al., 2006). A pesar del creciente interés en optimizar el uso de los recursos hídricos, apenas se han realizado trabajos de investigación sobre la evaporación en estos pequeños embalses, basándose los pocos estudios disponibles en datos escasos y de baja calidad (Rosenberry et al., 2007). Tampoco existen trabajos relevantes centrados en el proceso de evaporación y la evolución de las componentes del balance de energía en pequeños embalses, cuyo conocimiento es fundamental para poder modelizar y predecir adecuadamente las pérdidas por evaporación. En el presente trabajo de investigación se ha llevado a cabo la cuantificación y análisis detallado de las componentes del balance de energía de un embalse de riego de la CS, basado en datos experimentales. Para ello se ha monitorizado un embalse de riego típico de la CS durante un año (2007), registrándose datos de evaporación, del perfil de temperatura y de las variables meteorológicas relacionadas, que han dado lugar a datos diarios de gran calidad no disponibles con anterioridad a este estudio. A partir de estos datos, se han descrito y cuantificado todos los flujos del balance de energía, así como la distribución de la energía disponible para la evaporación a escala mensual, poniéndose de manifiesto la importancia de considerar la inercia térmica del cuerpo de agua para el cálculo de la evaporación a una escala inferior a la anual. Los resultados muestran que la radiación neta y la evaporación (principales términos del balance de energía) se encuentran desfasados temporalmente debido a la acumulación de calor en el cuerpo de agua. Como consecuencia de este desfase se producen importantes errores en la estima de la evaporación a partir de relaciones lineales con la radiación neta, en las que no se considera el calor almacenado en el cuerpo de agua. Además se ha propuesto una ecuación simplificada que permite estimar el calor almacenado a escala mensual a partir de datos de temperatura del aire, dado que habitualmente no se dispone de la información sobre la temperatura del agua requerida para su cálculo. Los valores anuales y la evolución mensual del coeficiente de advección de Priestley-Taylor y de las componentes advectiva y radiativa del método de Penman también han sido estudiados y se dan simplificaciones y recomendaciones para el uso de estos métodos. En general, este trabajo representa una referencia fundamental para el estudio de evaporación en pequeños cuerpos de agua, especialmente para aquellos ubicados en zonas de clima semiárido. Otro objetivo fundamental de la tesis ha sido el estudio de la mitigación de las pérdidas por evaporación. Para reducir la evaporación en superficies de agua existen diferentes alternativas, que pueden clasificarse en los siguientes grupos: métodos físicos, métodos operacionales, coberturas químicas y métodos estructurales (Brown, 1988). Los métodos físicos son aquellos que modifican las propiedades físicas del agua, como la des estratificación artificial del agua. Los métodos operacionales hacen referencia a las buenas prácticas de manejo orientadas a la prevención de la evaporación. Las coberturas químicas se forman aplicando productos químicos en la superficie del agua, que crean una capa reductora de la evaporación. Por último, los métodos estructurales incluyen las coberturas y módulos flotantes, que reducen los intercambios de masa y energía entre la superficie de agua y el aire circundante, los cortavientos, que protegen la superficie del agua de la exposición al viento y las coberturas de sombreo suspendidas, que minimizan el paso de la radiación solar y protegen de la acción directa del viento. Entre todos estos métodos, las coberturas de sombreo suspendidas parece ser una de las técnicas más prometedora para la reducción de la evaporación. (Craig et al., 2005; Martínez-Álvarez et al., 2006). ; [ENG] Current global population growth, industrial development, sustained increase of living standards and the trend towards irrigated agriculture have produced a strong competition for water resources. In arid and semiarid climates, this causes water shortages that mainly affect agricultural users. There is an urgent need to improve water management by developing new water-saving technologies, especially in agriculture, whose water consumption accounts for 75% of the human water use. In arid and semiarid regions, evaporation loss from agricultural water reservoirs (AWRs) for irrigation can be potentially large. Several studies have pointed out the importance of evaporation losses. Gökbulak and Özhan (2006) estimated that annual evaporation from lakes and dams in Turkey is greater than the water used for domestic and industrial purposes. Craig et al. (2005) estimated that in many areas of Australia up to 40% of the stored water in on-farm storages can be lost through evaporation. In the semiarid region of south-eastern Spain, sustained development of new irrigated lands over the last few decades has led to an important increase in water demand. This has caused a dramatic water deficit, estimated at 460 hm3 in the Segura River Basin (SRB), affecting 3.5·105 ha of irrigated farmlands (Ministry of Environment, 2000). Agricultural allotments in the SRB mainly come from adjacent basins and its quantity and temporal availability mainly depends on political decisions that are difficult to anticipate, especially in drought periods. The collective irrigation schemes, which have intermediate infrastructures for medium-term storage of allotted water, distribute water to farms generally by turn. Due to the water distribution system by turn and in order to deal with irregular water allotment and extended periods without water supply, many farms and collective irrigation schemes built and now use AWRs. These reservoirs guarantee water throughout the year and therefore have an important impact on agriculture productivity and revenues of farming systems. To assess the actual importance of evaporation loss in the SRB, a detailed study was carried out. The first step was to identify the number, location and dimensions of all irrigation reservoirs in the SRB. The aerial orthophoto SIGPAC (http://sigpac.mapa.es/fega/visor/) of 2003 was meticulously photointerpreted, using ArcGIS 9.2 Geographical Information System (GIS), to identify all extant AWRs in the SRB. The usual practice in south-eastern Spain is to keep AWR water level above one third of its total depth, in order to maintain some level of insurance against the uncertain and poorly timed delivery of irrigation water to farms. For this reason, a floodable area (S2/3) corresponding to two thirds of the total depth of each AWR was considered a realistic value for determining the average annual evaporative area, which represents about 85% of the floodable area for most cases since embankments usually have an inner slope of 1/1. Once the extension and location of all evaporating area were known, the next step was to estimate evaporation from each reservoir and then aggregate the information to obtain the regional evaporation. The simplest way to estimate evaporation from AWRs is to use Class-A pan evaporation data, Ep. This method is commonly used to derive the evaporation rate, E, of a water surface, for hydrological applications. An empirical pan coefficient, Kp (defined as the ratio of E to Ep), is to be applied to estimate E. To determine Kp, local climate conditions and the geometric dimensions of the water body need to be considered. Martínez-Alvarez et al. (2007) found that, at a given location in the SRB, annual Kp values mostly depend on the AWR flooded area, S, and depend loosely on depth, D, and that spatial variation of annual Kp at a regional or catchment scale is related to the annual air vapour pressure deficit, VPD. In this study, the methodology proposed by Martínez-Alvarez et al. (2007) was applied to calculate Kp, taking into account the surface of reservoirs (S2/3) and the local VPD. Regional maps of Ep and VPD were produced and then combined with evaporating area and Kp of each reservoir in order to calculate the evaporation of each reservoir. To calculate the regional evaporation loss, spatial aggregation GIS techniques were used. Results indicated that annual water loss at a basin scale reaches 58.5 hm3, which corresponds to 1,404 m of water depth over the flooded area. To assess the importance of total evaporation loss within the water budget of the Segura River Basin, the evaporation loss was compared to the rest of the water demands in the basin. The total regional loss corresponds to 8.3% of irrigation water use, it is higher than the industrial demand, similar to the environmental demand, and it is equivalent to 27% of the domestic water use. Considering that the SRB, like most of semiarid basins, presents a marked water deficit, the latter figures underline the need of further research on evaporation from water storages and alternatives to reduce this water loss. Accurate estimates of free water evaporation from on-farm water storages are essential for assessing storage efficiency and for evaluating the use of mitigation measures. Small water storages for livestock, fishing, irrigation or recreational activities are estimated to cover about 77,000 km2 worldwide (Downing et al., 2006). In spite of the increasing interest in optimizing storage efficiency in irrigation districts, detailed evaporation studies of these numerous small water bodies are scarce and often based on sparse or remotely collected data (Rosenberry et al., 2007). To our knowledge, there are very few studies that provide a detailed insight into the dynamics of the energy balance components and evaporation loss of on-farm water reservoirs. There is a need to study in detail the dynamics of small storages. A thorough quantification and analysis of the components of the energy balance of a typical AWR based on detailed experimentation is of main interest. The second part of this research work was focused on the mitigation of evaporation from on-farm water storages. To reduce evaporation losses, a wide variety of methods have been proposed, which can be classified into the following groups: physical, operational, chemical and structural methods. Among these methods, suspended shade cloth covers (SSCCs) have been pointed out as one of the most promising techniques from a technical point of view (Craig et al., 2005; Martinez-Alvarez et al., 2006). ; Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena

Máster Universitario en Ingeniería Industrial ; El objetivo principal del documento es presentar las tendencias y características actuales de la industria de la automoción, y con foco en los fabricantes de componentes, entender la importancia de la competitividad e identificar y cuantificar los factores críticos de éxito que les permitirían obtener una huella industrial competitiva, en este caso, en el sector de estampación en caliente. La industria de la automoción es un pilar clave para la economía global, pues representa un 3% de PIB mundial, y contribuye enormemente a la creación de puestos de trabajo, desarrollo industrial y fomento del I+D. Dentro del sector, los fabricantes de componentes se están convirtiendo gradualmente en un elemento clave en la elaboración de valor añadido, dado que la producción de vehículos se está haciendo progresivamente más compleja y su integración en la cadena de valor es crítica. OEMs, fabricantes de componentes y el sector en general han disfrutado de un periodo de crecimiento y rentabilidad relativamente alto desde la recesión en 2008 y 2009. No obstante, la industria está empezando a enfrentarse a una serie de retos que seguramente condicionen sus ingresos, siendo de especial relevancia los retos en materia de reducción de costes, peso y regulaciones. El afán por la reducción de costes y peso obliga a los OEMs y resto de fabricantes a prodcir coches cada vez más ligeros, económicos y que cumplan con las regulaciones medioambientales y de seguridad. Por este motivo, la carrocería y el chasis se vuelven elementos clave, pues representan casi un 40% del peso de un vehículo, y se estima que albergarán el 15% de la inversión necesaria para cumplir con los objetivos de eficiencia energética. Con el objetivo de fabricar componentes ligeros, la industria ha desarrollado una serie de tecnologías y materiales para remplazar el tradicional acero dulce. Entre ellos, destacan los aceros de ultra alta resistencia (UHSS) y de estampación en caliente, y el aluminio y los composites. El uso de estas dos últimas tecnologías, a pesar de ofrecer las mayores reducciones de peso, no ha sido ampliamente extendido, dado que aun suponen un coste de fabricación muy alto. Dada la competitividad y relevancia del sector, este documento se centra en una de estas tecnologías de innovación, la estampación en caliente, y trata de generar valor mediante la identificación y cuantificación de los factores críticos de éxito que ofrecerían una ventaja competitiva sostenida. Como respuesta al crecimiento global de la industria, los fabricantes de componentes han expandido sus operaciones, y la optimización de su huella industrial es clave de cara a convertirse en competidores feroces. Si este documento se quedase en el plano descriptivo, su utilidad sería limitada. Por ello, la influencia de las palancas identificadas y su impacto sobre el coste total de fabricación se han cuantificado a través de un modelo de costes. El modelo identifica los principales factores de costes y destaca una serie de iniciativas potenciales para la mejora del rendimiento, que son contextualizadas en el marco de un caso práctico. Para llevar a cabo esta tarea, se desarrollan los siguientes análisis: Caracterización del sector de la automoción y los fabricantes de componentes Papel de los componentes de carrocería y chasis Entorno competitivo en carrocería y chasis Identificación y evaluación de los factores críticos de éxito para la competitividad de una planta de estampación en caliente Modelado de la competitividad mediante un caso práctico Caracterización del sector de la automoción y los fabricantes de componentes El sector de la automoción constituye una palanca básica para el progreso económico y la estabilidad, y fomenta el desarrollo tecnológico en países desarrollados y en vías de desarrollo. El gran crecimiento en los últimos años ha ayudado a la industria en la creación de puestos de trabajo, recaudación de impuestos y desarrollo industrial. La producción desde la recesión ha crecido con una tasa compuesta anual de 8,3%, especialmente favorecida por el crecimiento del mercado chino y la recuperación de los mercados europeos y americanos. La rentabilidad desde 2009 ha sido relativamente más alta para los fabricantes de componentes, especialmente aquellos enfocados en neumáticos y sistemas de propulsión, y aquellos centrados en innovación de producto. A pesar del crecimiento experimentado en años previos, el sector afrontará una serie de retos que condicionarán futuras rentabilidades. Las OEMs y resto de fabricantes se enfrentarán a una intensificación de la complejidad y la reducción de peso y costes, un movimiento continuado del centro de gravedad hacia mercados emergentes, un incremento de la demanda digital y un cambio en el panorama de la industrial, requiriendo una mayor porción de valor añadido por parte de los fabricantes de componentes. Papel de los componentes de carrocería y chasis Los retos en materia de reducción de coste y peso que afronta la industria guían hacia la fabricación de componentes más económicos, ligeros y conformes con las regulaciones medioambientales y de seguridad. Con el fin de lograr este objetivo, los componentes de carrocería y chasis juegan un papel clave pues representan casi el 40% del peso del vehículo y se espera que acaparen un 15% de la inversión necesaria para alcanzar las metas de eficiencia de combustible. Con el objetivo de fabricar componentes ligeros, la industria ha desarrollado una serie de tecnologías y materiales para remplazar el tradicional acero dulce. Entre ellos, destacan los aceros de ultra alta resistencia (UHSS) y de estampación en caliente, y el aluminio y los composites. El uso de estas dos últimas tecnologías, a pesar de ofrecer las mayores reducciones de peso, no ha sido ampliamente extendido, dado que aun suponen un coste de fabricación muy alto. Los UHSS y aceros de estampación en caliente ofrecen límites elásticos significativamente más altos con una reducción en peso del 20%, y un incremento de los costes de facturación del 15%. El aluminio por su parte, que necesita ser aleado para su uso en elementos estructurales, ofrece una reducción de peso del 40%, además de una alta reciclabilidad y reducción de las emisiones. Los composites ofrecen una reducción de peso aún mayor, 50%, y una reducción de la complejidad de fabricación. No obstante, están tecnologías suponen un incremento de coste del 30% y 47% respectivamente. Entorno competitivo en carrocería y chasis El mercado de la carrocería y chasis está dominado por pocos actores que han logrado el liderazgo a través de una cobertura global y una amplia línea de productos. Dentro del sector de estampación, destacan Cosma (empresa de Magna International), Gestamp Automoción, Benteler Automotive y Tower International. Presentan unos ingresos en el rango entre 2.000 y 8.000 millones de dólares, y tienes unas rentabilidades operativas del 10% de margen de EBITDA de media. A pesar de la existencia de muchos pequeños competidores locales con foco en una región específica, y la internalización de la actividad por parte de algunas OEMs, el sector está tendiendo hacia la consolidación, y los sectores de carrocería y chasis representan un 40% de toda la actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones en la industria de la automoción actualmente.Identificación y evaluación de los factores críticos de éxito para la competitividad de una planta de estampación en caliente Como ya se ha manifestado, el sector de carrocería y chasis, y más concretamente, de estampación en caliente, es altamente competitivo, por lo que la identificación de los factores críticos de éxito para la competitividad se vuelve un aspecto clave. El sector de la automoción se ha convertido en una industria global en las últimas décadas, lo que ha llevado a los fabricantes a expandir sus operaciones y tratar de optimizar su huella industrial. Por ello, una de las vías para lograr convertirse en un competidor feroz y llevar a cabo una estrategia difícilmente imitable por competidores es mediante el desarrollo de una huella industrial feroz. Los cuatro factores críticos de éxito identificados para la obtención de una huella industrial competitiva incluyen: Alto conocimiento tecnológico sobre el proceso de estampación en caliente, productos, materiales… Se ha llevado a cabo una profunda investigación de cara a la definición propiedades de los materiales, procesos, maquinaría y alternativas potenciales, además de la amplia gama de posibles productos estampados en caliente y la demanda creciente que afronta la tecnología Una ubicación estratégica que permita beneficiarse de producción JIT con el cliente, un suministro de materias primas apropiado y un coste logístico reducido La proximidad a la planta de ensamblaje del OEM afecta positivamente tanto a funciones 'hard' como JIT y costes logísticos, como funciones 'soft' como imagen y choque cultural. Además, diferencias potenciales en el precio de materias primas se pueden explicar parcialmente con la ubicación y su influencia en los factores de coste Una mano de obra adecuada, que muestre un balance correcto entre coste de personal, capacidades, productividades y educación Se ha desarrollado un análisis detallado sobre la variación de las características de los trabajadores del sector entre países, y su impacto en las diferencias de coste y rendimiento Alta eficiencia operativa basada en técnicas lean y buenos rendimientos en términos de OEE y TPM Se presentan los grandes beneficios de una estrategia de OEE y TMP y más particularmente, comparativas de estampación en caliente con tecnologías alternativas Modelado de la competitividad mediante un caso práctico Si este documento se quedase en el plano descriptivo, su utilidad sería limitada. A través del diseño de un modelo para cuantificar el impacto de los factores de competitividad identificados, se logra construir otra perspectiva desde un caso práctico real. El caso define un fabricante de componentes de estampación en caliente, que debe fabricar la producción de pilares B para un OEM desde una de sus plantas. Para averiguar cuál de sus ubicaciones ofrece la mayor competitividad de costes, el modelo ofrece un desglose de costes detallado, y estudia los principales palancas de coste de cada planta a la luz de los factores de de éxito identificados. El modelo y su aplicación a un caso práctico son de gran utilidad de cara a subrayar iniciativas de mejora, y su impacto en coste y rendimiento. Propone una serie de medidas que logran una mejora del OEE de 11pp y una reducción del 50% de los costes de mantenimiento, en materia de capacidad y organización de la planta; establecimiento de estandarización del trabajo, 5S y gestión visual; reducción del mantenimiento no planificado de maquinas y herramientas; y eficiencia y consistencia transiciones mediante SMED. Asimismo, la aplicación de un caso práctico permite evaluar el rendimiento en fabricación desde un punto de vista de financiación, e incluir conceptos como margen operativo, coste de capital y retorno de la inversión anual medio. Por último, su uso también permite llevar a cabo análisis de sensibilidades y evaluar el impacto de otras capacidades de tipos soft como coordinación, impacto cultural e imagen. Conclusiones Los primeros aspectos más analíticos del documento otorgan un entendimiento de la situación actual y los retos que afrontan OEMs y fabricantes de componentes, y subraya la relevancia que los componentes de carrocería y chasis juegan de cara a conseguir los objetivos de reducción de costes y peso. Asimismo, sirve como una introducción de las características de estos componentes, y recalca la importancia de la competitividad. No obstante, el mayor valor añadido del documento recae sobre la identificación y cuantificación de los factores críticos de éxito que permiten a una planta de estampación en caliente obtener una huella industrial feroz. Mediante este análisis, se definen las palancas más importantes para hacerse competitivo. Por un lado, se describen en detalle factores ajenos y no controlados por los fabricantes como las características de la mano de obra, costes logísticos y de materias primas…Una descripción tan detallada pretende ser de utilidad para fabricantes de cara a decisiones sobre su huella industrial. Por otro lado, se realiza un profundo examen de la tecnología, con enfoque en materiales, procesos y productos y sus alternativas, y una definición de las reglas que ofrecen una excelencia operativa y de mantenimiento. Por medio de estas palancas, se identifican claras iniciativas para la mejora del rendimiento y la competitividad de costes. Además, la aplicación de estos factores de éxito identificados en un caso práctico permite la contextualización en un escenario de fabricación real. La definición del modelo de costes ayuda a ilustrar el impacto de estas palancas sobre el coste total, y su influencia de cara a la mejora de la competitividad. La cuantificación de estas medidas, asimismo, permite la aplicación de evaluaciones de tipo financiero y análisis de sensibilidad. ; The main goal of the document is to present the trends and circumstances that the automotive industry is currently experiencing, and with focus on the supplier sector, understand the importance of competitiveness and identify and quantify the critical success factors that would provide a component manufacturer, in this case, in hot stamping, with a ruthless manufacturing footprint. The automotive industry is a main pillar for the global economy, accounting for 3% of the world's GDP and heavily contributing to job creation, industrial development and fostering of R&D. Within the sector, component manufacturers are gradually becoming a key element towards value addition, as vehicle production is becoming increasingly complex and integration of suppliers within OEM's value chain is critical. OEMs, component manufactures and the sector as a whole, have been enjoy a period of relatively strong growth and profitability since the recession in the 2008-2009 period. Nevertheless, the industry is starting to face a series of challenges which will definitely condition their future returns, especially meaningful regarding cost-pressure, weight and regulations. This intensification of cost-pressure and weight focus forces OEMs and suppliers to manufacture increasingly light-weight vehicles, that are cost-effective and comply with environmental and safety regulations. For this purpose, body in white and chassis components become critical, as they represent almost 40% of a car's weight, and it is expected that 15% of the investment towards achieving fuel efficiency goals will rely on them. In order to tackle the need to produce light components, the industry has come up with new technologies and materials to replace traditional mild steel which allow for a significant weight reduction. These innovative materials encompass Ultra High Strength Steel (UHSS) and hot stamped steel, and aluminium and composites. These last two technologies, although offering the highest weight reduction, are still under development and their high manufacturing costs hinder their general expansion. Given the relevance and competitiveness of the sector, this document focuses on one of these innovative technologies, hot-stamping, and generates value by identifying and quantifying the critical success factors that would provide a hot stamping manufacturer's plant with a sustained competitive advantage. As a result of global growth, suppliers have had to expand its operations, and in order to tackle future industry challenges, manufacturers must search to become ruthless competitors by means of an optimized footprint. If this document just held on to a descriptive level, the utility of it would be limited. Therefore, the influence of the identified levers and their impact on overall manufacturing costs are quantified through a cost model. The model identifies the main cost drivers and highlights potential performance improvement initiatives, which are then contextualized through a case study. In order to carry out this task, the following analysis will be developed: Characterization of the automotive and supplier industry Role of body in white and chassis Competitive landscape in the body in white and chassis stamping sector Identification of success factors for the competitiveness of a hot stamping plant Modelling of competitiveness through a case study Characterization of the automotive and supplier industry The automotive industry constitutes a main driver of macroeconomic expansion and stability, and forces technological advancement in both developed and developing countries. Its strong growth in past years has allowed the industry to robustly contribute to job creation, government revenue and industrial and research development. Production since the recession has grown with a 8,3% CAGR, especially pulled by the growth in the Greater China market and the recovery of Europe and North America. Profitability since 2009 have been relatively higher for component manufacturers, especially those focused on tires and power train, and enhancing product innovation. Despite the growth experienced in previous years, the sector will encounter a series of challenges which will condition future profitability. OEMs and suppliers will encounter an intensification of complexity, cost-pressure and weight focus, they will experience a shift of the centre of gravity towards emerging markets and an increase in the digital demands, and they will face a change in the industry landscape, as component manufacturers will be required to add increasing value to the final product.Role of body in white and chassis The challenges regarding cost pressure and weight faced by OEMs and component manufacturers forces the industry to produce increasingly lighter cars, which are cost effective and meet environmental and safety regulation. Towards achieving this goal, a car's body in white (BIW) and chassis play a critical role as they account for almost 40% of the vehicle's weight, and are expected to require 15% of the investment needed to accomplish the fuel efficiency targets. In order to tackle the need to produce light components, the industry has come up with new technologies and materials to replace traditional mild steel which allow for a significant weight reduction. These innovative materials encompass Ultra High Strength Steel (UHSS) and hot stamped steel, and aluminium and composites. These last two technologies, although offering the highest weight reduction, are still under development and their high manufacturing costs hinder their general expansion. UHSS and hot-stamped steels allow offer significantly higher yield strengths with a 20% weight reduction, while increasing manufacturing costs by 15%. Aluminium, which needs to be alloyed to be used in structural components, besides reducing 40% weight, offers high recyclability and emission reduction. Composites offer even further weight reduction, 50% and reduced manufacturing complexity. Nevertheless, these technologies respectively increase manufacturing costs by 30% and 470%. Competitive landscape in the body in white and chassis stamping sector The body in white and chassis market is dominated by a few players who have achieved leadership through global coverage and breath of capabilities. Within the stamping sector, Cosma (company of Magna International), Gestamp Automoción, Benteler Automotive and Tower International are the largest competitors. They present revenues ranging from 2.000 to 8.000 million dollars, and have an operational efficiency averaging 10% EBITDA margin. Although there are many local players present with focus only on a certain region, and some OEMs internally develop stamping activities, the industry is turning towards higher consolidation, as body and chassis account for 40% of all the current M&A activity in the industry. Identification of success factors for the competitiveness of a hot stamping plant As it has been highlighted, the stamping of body in white and chassis, and more precisely, hot stamping, is highly competitive, which makes the identification of competitiveness success factor very important. The automotive industry has become a greatly global industry in the past decades and hence, automotive suppliers have had to expand their operations and try to optimize their manufacturing footprint.Therefore, one of the ways an automotive supplier could become a ruthless competitor and build up a strategy that wouldn't be able to be imitated by its competitors is by developing a ruthless footprint. The four identified critical success factors to achieve footprint competitiveness encompass: The technological know-how of the hot-stamping processes, products, materials. Research is carried out in order to define material properties, processes, machinery and future developments, as well as the wide range of products possibly manufactured with hot stamping and the increasing demand faced by the technology. A strategic location that would allow benefiting from Just in Time (JIT) production with the customer, appropriate raw material sourcing and reduced logistic and shipping costs Proximity to OEM plant is proved to positively affect both hard features like JIT and shipping costs and soft features like image and cultural impact. Besides, potential raw material price difference are partially explained by the location and its influence on cost drivers An adequate work-force, which shows a successful balance of personnel cost, skills, productivity and education. Detailed analysis performed evidences how worker characteristics vary along different countries and can explain cost and performance differences High operational efficiency based on lean techniques and good Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) and Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) performances Presentation of the vast benefits enhanced through the implementation of OEE and TPM strategies together with benchmarks on hot stamping and other comparable technologies Modelling of competitiveness through a case study If this document just held on to a descriptive level, the utility of it would be limited. By means of designing a model to quantify the impact of the identified competitiveness success factors, it allows to build a further perspective, a real case scenario. The case study defines a supplier of hot stamping components, which must manufacture the Bpillar production for a vehicle from one of its plants. In order to find out which location offers the biggest cost competitiveness, the model illustrates detailed cost breakdowns and studies the main cost drivers in each plant in light of the identified success factors. The model and its application to a case study are very useful in order to highlight improvement initiatives, and their potential impact on cost and performance. It proposes a series of initiatives which prove to achieve an 11pp OEE increase and a 50% reduction in maintenance costs, regarding the fields of plant capacity and organization improvement; establishment of standard work, 5S and visual management; reduction of unplanned machine and tool maintenance; and efficiency and consistency of changeovers through SMED. Furthermore, the application to a case study allows to contextualize manufacturing performances within a financial evaluation and to come across with concepts such as operational profit, required cost of capital and average annual ROCE, which in the auto-component industry are standardized to be >12%, 8,1% and >15% respectively. Finally, the employment of a model allows to carryout sensitivity analysis and to evaluate the impact of other potential soft skills such as coordination, culture impact or image. Conclusions The first analytical topics of the document grant an understanding of the current situation and challenges faced by OEMs and suppliers, and highlight the big relevance that body and chassis components will have towards achieving cost and weight reduction goals. Furthermore, it serves as an introduction on the characteristics of the BIW and chassis components and technologies, and remarks the importance of competitiveness. Nevertheless, the biggest value addition of this document mainly relays on the identification and quantification of the success factors that make a hot stamping plant achieve a ruthless footprint. Through this analysis, the most important levers towards becoming competitive are defined and evaluated. On the one hand, the situation of outside and uncontrolled conditions such as country labour characteristics, shipping costs and raw material cost drivers are described in depth. Such detailed description intents to be positively valued by manufacturers before leveraging and deciding on their footprint decision. On the other hand, in depth research of the technology, with focus on materials, processes and products, and their alternatives, and definition of rules towards achieving excellent operational and maintenance performances are defined. By means of these levers, clear and detailed initiatives are proposed to improve performance and become more cost competitive. Moreover, the application of these identified success factors in a case study allows contextualizing them within a real manufacturing scenario. The definition of a cost model helps to illustrate the impact on overall cost of the identified levers and their influence towards competitiveness improvement. The quantification of the impact of the success factors allows, furthermore, to apply financial evaluations and sensitivity analysis.

C ontents -- Part 1. Theory -- To Understand Economics, Follow the Money: To Understand Ecosystems, Follow the Energy -- Two Views of Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation -- Why I Wrote this Book -- Dualities Still Impede Conservation Efforts -- The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform of Biodiversity -- Targets for Conservation -- Evolving Objectives -- Literature Review -- Updating Ecosystem Ecology -- References -- What Can We Learn by Studying Ecosystems that We Can't Learn from Studying Populations? -- The Predator-Prey Conundrum -- The Serengeti Ecosystem -- Evolution in the "Ecological Theater" -- Predator-Prey Interactions Tell Only Part of the Story -- Evolution in the "Thermodynamic Theater" -- References -- A Thermodynamic Definition of Ecosystems -- Ecosystems in the 20th Century -- Cycling of Strontium-90 -- Cesium-137 in Food Chains -- Recycling of Isotopes in Norwegian Sheep -- Ecological Energetics -- Is it Time to Bury the Ecosystem Concept? -- A Thermodynamic Definition of Life -- A Thermodynamic Definition of Ecosystems -- The Phase Transition between Order and Chaos -- References -- Thermodynamic Characteristics of Ecosystems -- Equilibrium -- The Equilibrium Law -- Thermodynamic Equilibrium -- Open Thermodynamic Systems -- Ecosystems are Thermodynamically Open Non-Equilibrium Systems -- Work is Performed by Non-equilibrium Systems -- Advantage of a Thermodynamically Open System -- 4.3 Ecosystems are Entropic -- 4.4 Ecosystems are Cybernetic -- Cybernetic Systems -- Economic Systems are Cybernetic Ecosystems are Cybernetic -- The Ecosystem Feedback Function -- Indirect vs. Direct Feedback -- Deviation Dampening and Amplifying Feedback -- Set Points -- Ecosystems are Autocatalytic -- Ecosystems have Boundaries -- Ecosystems are Hierarchical -- Hierarchy in Physical Systems -- Hierarchy in Ecological Systems -- Common Currencies -- Macro-and Micro-System Models -- Why an Ecosystem Model that Includes Everything is not Possible -- A Nested Marine Community -- Ecosystems are Deterministic -- Ecosystems are Information Rich -- An Engineering Definition of Information -- Information to Facilitate Exchange -- High Energy Information -- Low Energy Information -- Information Theory -- Genetic Information -- Ecosystems are Non-Teleological -- Criticisms of Ecosystem Models -- References -- Ecosystem Control: A Top-Down View -- Two Ways to Look at Systems -- Composing and Decomposing Trophic Webs -- Decomposers in Soil Organic Matter -- Decomposers in Marshes and Mangroves -- Control of Systems -- Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up -- Top-Down Exogenous Control -- Exogenous Impacts and Stability -- Top-Down Endogenous Control -- Endogenous Control through Nutrient Recycling -- Autocatalysis -- Control of Microbial Activity -- Inhibition of Microbial Activity by Leaf Sclerophylly -- Inhibition of Microbial Activity Chemical Defenses -- Inhibition of Microbial Activity by Ecological Stoichiometry -- The Synchrony Principle -- The Decay Law -- Direct Nutrient Cycling -- The Role of Animals -- Indirect Interactions -- Marine Systems -- Nutrient and Energy Recycling -- Exogenous Control -- Control in Lakes -- Control in Managed Ecosystems -- References -- Ecosystem Control: A Bottom-Up View -- Species as Arbitrageurs of Energy -- Relation Between Rate of Flow and Mass in Hydraulic Systems -- Relation Between Population Biomass and Rate of Energy Flow -- Equilibrium -- Mechanisms of Adjustment -- Adjustments and Climate Change -- Bird Populations -- Dis-equilibrium -- Population Instability vs. Ecosystem Instability -- Control by Interactions: Direct vs. Indirect -- Indirect Interactions -- Direct Interactions -- Predator – Prey -- Mutualisms -- Competition -- Decomposition -- Parasitism and Disease -- Commensalism and Amensalism -- Persistence of Negative Interactions -- References -- Ecosystem Stability -- Background -- A Thermodynamic Definition -- Regime Shift -- Metastability -- Pulsed Stability -- Resistance and Resilience -- Species Richness and Functional Stability -- Species Richness and Cultural Values -- Keystone Species, and Population and Ecosystem Stability -- 7.5.1 Keystone Species in the Yellowstone region of Wyoming -- References -- 8. Case Studies of Ecosystem Control and Stability -- Walden -- "Harmony in Nature" -- Feedback Produces Nature's "Harmony" -- Feedback Mechanisms -- Perturbations in Amazon Rain Forests -- Top-Down Control -- The San Carlos Project: A Small-scale, Low Intensity, Short Duration Disturbance -- 8.3.2 The Jarí Project: A Large-scale, High Intensity, Long Duration Disturbance -- Bottom-Up Control -- The El Verde Project -- The Long-Term Ecological Research Project in Puerto Rico -- The Lago Guri Island Project -- The Biological Dynamics of Tropical Rainforest Fragments Project -- What have Case Studies Taught us about Stability of Tropical Ecosystems? -- Tropical Ecosystems are Stable -- Tropical Ecosystems are Unstable -- Energy Flow in Tropical Savannas and Rain Forests -- Insects in Tropical Ecosystems -- Application of Lessons to Other Regions -- Relevance to Temperate Zones -- Relevance to Aquatic Ecosystems -- The Experimental Lakes Project (Ecosystem Control of Species) -- Lake Mendota Studies (Species Control of Ecosystems) -- 8.7 Case Studies as Tests of Thermodynamic Theory -- References -- Entropy and Maximum Power -- Entropy -- 9.2 Entropy in a Steel Bar -- Thermodynamic Equilibrium -- Entropic Gradients -- Capturing and Storing Entropy -- Evapotranspiration and Entropy Reduction -- Life is a Balance between Storing and Releasing Entropy -- The Law of Maximum Entropy Production -- Energy for Metabolism as well as Growth -- Unassisted Entropy Capture is a Unique Characteristic of Life.-9.6Entropy Storage by Ecosystems -- 9.6.1 What Causes Entropy to be Stored? -- 9.7 Capturing Pressure -- 9.8 Entropy and Time -- 9.8.1 Time's Speed Regulator -- Efficiency of Energy Transformations -- Passage of Time for Cats -- 9.9The Maximum Power Principle.-9.10 Optimum Efficiencies for a Truck and its Driver.-9.11 Sustainability -- References -- A Thermodynamic View of Succession -- 10.1 The Population View -- 10.2 The Thermodynamic View -- 10.2.1 Leaf Area Index and Succession -- 10.2.2 Power Output as a Function of Leaf Area Index -- 10.2.3 What Causes Changes in Leaf Area Index? -- 10.2.4 Maximum Entropy Production Principle -- 10.2.5 Successional Ecosystems Move Further from Thermodynamic Equilibrium -- 10.2.6 Entropy Storage by Animals -- 10.3 The Strategy of Ecosystem Development -- A Problem with Odum's Strategy -- Why Power Output Continues to Increase -- Revised Definition of Maximum Power -- Costs of Ecosystem Stabilization -- Transactional Costs -- Succession, Power Output, and Efficiency -- 10.5.1 Kleiber's Law -- Are Ecosystems Spendthrifts? -- Interactions Between Species Facilitate Increase in Power Output -- Facilitation -- Tolerance -- Inhibition -- Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis -- Nutrient Use Efficiency during Succession -- Succession Following Logging vs Following Agriculture -- 10.10 Thermodynamic View of Succession: Implications for Resource Management -- References -- Panarchy -- The Universal Cycle of Systems -- Panarchy -- Thermodynamic Interpretation of the Sacred Rules -- 11.2.1 Growth and Consolidation -- 11.2.2 Collapse -- Renewal -- Sub-systems -- Panarchy over 2 Billion Years of Evolution -- Consolidation, Bureaucracy and System Collapse -- Bureaucracy in Action (Case Studies) -- Case Study: Panarchy in the Georgia Piedmont -- Thermodynamic Interpretation -- References -- 12. A Thermodynamic View of Evolution -- 12.1 Life – A Physicist's View -- 12.1.1 Life is Produced by Capturing Entropy -- 12.1.2 The Origin of Life -- 12.2 Two Approaches to Evolution -- 12.2.1 The Eco-Evo-Devo View -- 12.2.2 The Thermodynamic View -- 12.2.3 Fitness -- 12.2.4 The "Goal" of Evolution -- 12.3 The Relationship between Species and Environment -- 12.3.1 Evolution's "Theater" -- 12.3.2 Is Evolution Stochastic or Deterministic? -- 12.4 Ecosystem Evolution -- 12.4.1 Succession was the Clue -- 12.4.2 Ecosystems Moved away from Equilibrium -- 12.4.3 Thermodynamic Mechanisms -- 12.4.4 Biological Mechanisms -- 12.4.5 Ecosystem Fitness -- 12.4.6 Ecosystems Evolve One Step at a Time -- 12.5. The Origin of Ecosystems -- 12.5.1 Origin of Feedback Loops -- 12.5.2 Origin of Trophic Levels -- 12.5.3 Why are there Trophic Levels? -- 12.6 The "Goal" of Ecosystem Evolution -- 12.6.1 Conflicting Goals? -- 12.6.2 "Motivations" of Species -- 12.6.3 The Earth Ecosystem -- 12.6.4 Why is there Resistance to the Idea of Ecosystem Evolution? -- 12.6.5 Evolution of Economic Systems -- 12.7 A Thermodynamic Model of Ecosystem Evolution -- 12.7.1 Network Models -- 12.7.2 Increase in Complexity of Trophic Webs -- 12.7.3 Evolution of Trophic Webs -- 12.7.4 Life Moves Ashore -- 12.8 Biodiversity and the Five Great Extinctions -- 12.8.1 The Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) Boundary Extinction -- 12.8.2The Amazing Sustainability of Trophic Chains -- 12.8.3 A Test of Thermodynamic Theory -- 12.9 Panarchy and Evolution -- 12.10 Thermodynamic Requirements for Living Systems on Other Planets -- References -- -- Why is Species Diversity Higher in the Tropics? -- 13.1 Tropical Explorations -- 13.2 A Few Theories -- 13.3 A Thermodynamic Explanation -- 13.3.1 The Latitudinal Energy Gradient -- 13.3.2 The Latitudinal Productivity Gradient -- 13.3.3 The Data -- 13.3.4 Other Factors Affecting Productivity -- 13.4 Empirical Evidence for a High Productivity High Diversity Correlation -- 13.5 Humboldt's Enigma -- 13.5.1 Are Productivity and Species Richness Correlated on Tropical -- Mountains? -- 13.6 The Mechanism Linking Productivity and Diversity -- 13.7 Answer to "Why is Species Diversity Higher in the Tropics?" -- 13.7.1 Differences within the Tropics -- 13.8 Why is Species Diversity Low at High Latitudes? -- 13.9 An Economic Perspective on D.

Inhaltsangabe:Einleitung: Relevanz des Themas: Galileo, Wunderwelt Wissen, Planetopia, Abenteuer Wissen… - diese Aufzählung von Wissenssendungen im deutschen Fernsehen ließe sich gefühlt noch unendlich weiterführen. Nicht erst seit gestern erleben solche Fernsehformate einen regelrechten Hype. Mit dem Anspruch unserer Gesellschaft nach ständiger Weiterbildung, nach 'lebenslangem Lernen', sieht sich heutzutage jeder konfrontiert. In dieser Zeit scheint das Konzept des 'Lernen mit dem Fernsehen' ein kluger und durchaus lohnenswerter Schachzug zu sein. Information wird in den Mantel der Unterhaltung gepackt und da der gemeine Konsument bekanntlich dazu neigt stets den geringsten Weg des Widerstandes zu gehen, scheint diese Marketingstrategie durchaus aufzugehen: Das Angenehme -der Fernsehkonsum- wird mit dem Nützlichen -dem Lernen- verbunden. Bernd Gäbler, Geschäftsführer des Adolf Grimme Institut, erscheint 'die Situation paradox: Während viele Bildungseinrichtungen über mangelnde Lernmotivation klagen, lässt sich im Fernsehen eine neue Bildungskonjunktur mit neuartigen medialen Wissensangeboten beobachten.' Für das Fernsehen spricht in diesem Zusammenhang die Möglichkeit mithilfe einer Vielzahl von filmischen Darstellungsmitteln komplexe Inhalte anschaulich darzustellen, sie dem Zuschauer buchstäblich vor Augen zu führen. Doch dieser Vorteil wird in einigen Fällen zum Nachteil, da 'Fernsehjournalisten mittlerweile einem regelrechten Visualisierungszwang unterliegen - es müssen auch an den Stellen Bilder gezeigt werden, wo es eigentlich kein einschlägiges Bildmaterial gibt'. Auch wenn das Genre der Wissenssendungen lange Zeit ein Privileg der öffentlich-rechtlichen Sender mit Sendungen wie dem Telekolleg war, bedienen sich seit der zweiten Hälfte der 1990er Jahre auch die privaten Sender dieser Gattung. Gerade 'die Bedeutung der Themen und ihre Vernetzung mit fast allen gesellschaftlichen Bereichen verursachte den Boom der Wissenschaftsberichterstattung im Fernsehen und die wachsende Anzahl an Wissensformaten'. Die Konzeptionen der Sendungen beziehen sich dabei auf ganz unterschiedliche Bereiche: Während die Einen versuchen, komplexe Sachverhalte wissenschaftlich vertieft und korrekt darzustellen bzw. zu erläutern, verfolgen andere vielmehr die Taktik 'Wissenschaft light', indem mehr alltagsnahe Inhalte thematisiert und Tipps gegeben werden. Ob für Kinder oder Erwachsene, für jeden scheint etwas Passendes dabei zu sein. Dies wirft jedoch zugleich die Frage auf, ob wirklich für jeden etwas Passendes dabei ist? Bei der genaueren Betrachtung der Bandbreite an Wissenssendungen fällt auf, dass es zwar eine Vielzahl an Sendungen gibt, die explizit für Kinder konzipiert wurden, doch lässt sich dies nicht auf die jugendliche Zielgruppe übertragen. Es stellt sich die Frage, ob Wissenssendungen für Erwachsene auch für Jugendliche in Punkto Themen und Aufmachung interessant und ansprechend sind und ob vermittelte Wissensinhalte von Jugendlichen auch verstanden werden. Inwiefern wirken sich hierauf beispielsweise das Vorwissen und der Bildungshintergrund von jungen Rezipienten aus und inwieweit wird die Vermittlung von Wissen durch Parameter, wie die Art der Ansprache, die Präsentation von Lerninhalten und die Aufmachung der Sendung für jugendliche Rezipienten beeinflusst? Bemerkung: Die Grundlage der Arbeit bildet eine qualitative und quantitative Rezeptionsstudie, die im Jahr 2008 im Rahmen eines Praktikums beim Internationalen Zentralinstitut für das Jugend- und Bildungsfernsehen beim Bayerischen Rundfunk (IZI) konzipiert und durchgeführt wurde. Der Untersuchungsgegenstand der Studie besteht aus den beiden Sendungen Quarks Co. (WDR) und Mythbusters–Die Wissensjäger (RTL2). Untersucht wird damit je ein Repräsentant des öffentlich-rechtlichen und einer des privaten Fernsehens mit einer Sendelänge von ca. 45 Minuten. Beide Sendungen sind nicht speziell für Jugendliche konzipiert. So kommen beispielsweise keine jugendlichen Hauptpersonen vor. Die Beliebtheit der Sendung wurde über Screenings mit knapp 200 Jugendlichen im Alter von 14 bis 17 erhoben. Die Intention beider Formate ist es, Wissenschaft möglichst attraktiv darzustellen und Wissen –im weitesten Sinne- zu vermitteln. Sie bedienen sich zweier unterschiedlicher Konzepte: Quarks Co. beruht auf Wissenschaftsnähe, Experimenten und Faktenwissen, das mithilfe von Experten weitergegeben wird. Mythbusters–Die Wissensjäger dagegen setzt praxisnahe Personalisierung ein und stützt sich -mehr oder weniger- auf die Vermittlung einer Lernstrategie. Bei der Auswahl der jeweiligen Folge wurde besonderes Augenmerk auf die naturwissenschaftliche Verankerung gelegt. Beide Folgen wurden auf Grund der behandelten physikalischen Thematik ausgesucht. Die Quarks Co.-Folge ausgestrahlt am 8. Juli 2008, behandelt das Thema Blitze. Die untersuchte Folge der Serie Mythbusters–Die Wissensjäger vom 9. Dezember 2007 überprüft zwei 'populäre Mythen' zum Thema Auftrieb. In Form einer quantitativen und qualitativen Studie wurde untersucht, welches Konzept bei den Jugendlichen besser ankommt und welches Konzept das Verständnis der vermittelten Wissensinhalte mit größerem Erfolg erreicht. Die Daten der Studie werden im empirischen Teil der Arbeit verwendet und die Ergebnisse sollen auszugsweise vorgestellt werden. Wegen der geringen Fallzahl sind die Ergebnisse lediglich als Trendaussagen zu werten. Teile der Studie wurden bereits in TelevIZIon 21/2008/2 veröffentlicht. Zielsetzung: Das Ziel der Arbeit soll eine vergleichende Darstellung zweier aktueller Wissenssendungen im deutschen Fernsehen sein. Gerade auf Grund der Tatsache, dass beide Sendungen nicht für Jugendliche gemacht wurden, besteht der Anspruch herauszuarbeiten, auf welche Weise mit der Vermittlung von Wissen umgegangen wird und wie diese von jugendlichen bildungsnahen und –fernen Rezipienten angenommen wird. Vor dem Hintergrund, dass Aufmerksamkeit im Verstehens- und Lernprozess eine basale Rolle spielt, sollen ferner Momente aus beiden Sendungen abstrahiert werden, die sich aufmerksamkeitsgewinnend bzw. –verlierend auswirken. Darüber hinaus ermöglicht die Programmauswahl eine vergleichende Analyse der Wissensvermittlung eines öffentlich-rechtlichen und eines privaten Programms.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Inhaltsverzeichnis: I.Einleitung4 1.Relevanz des Themas4 2.Bemerkung5 3.Zielsetzung6 II.Theorie7 4.Wissenssendungen im TV – eine Programmeinordnung7 4.1Wissensberichterstattung im Rahmen des Bildungsfernsehens7 4.2Wissensberichterstattung – ein Überblick8 5.Mediennutzung Jugendlicher10 5.1Medien als Informanten11 5.2Rezeption von Wissensformaten12 6.Medienanalyse14 6.1Analyse der Sendung Quarks Co.15 6.2Analyse der Sendung Mythbusters-Die Wissenjäger19 7.Lernen mit dem Fernsehen24 7.1Der Begriff des Lernens24 7.2Charakteristika des Lernprozesses25 7.3Formale Elemente der medialen Aufbereitung27 7.3.1Schlüsselmoment Aufmerksamkeit28 7.3.2Verstehen mit Hilfe konstruierter Lernräume30 7.3.3Darstellung der Lernräume am Beispiel32 III.Empirie41 8.Beschreibung des Studiendesigns und der Stichprobe41 8.1Methode und Studiendesign41 8.1.1Fragebogen41 8.1.2Gruppendiskussion42 8.1.3Ablauf der Erhebung43 8.1.4Untersuchungszeitraum und Stichprobe43 9.Ergebnisse48 9.1Aufmerksamkeitsgewinnende Momente in den Lernräumen48 9.2Gebrauchswert der Sendung und Verstehen der Lernmomente57 9.2.1Lerneinschätzung aus der Sendung und Gebrauchswert für naturwissenschaftliche Fächer in der Schule57 9.2.2Fragen zum Verständnis der Lernmomente59 9.3Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse64 IV.Interpretation und Ausblick66 V.Bibliographie70 VI.Abbildungsverzeichnis74 VII.Anhang75Textprobe:Textprobe: Kapitel 7., Lernen mit dem Fernsehen: Wie der Begriff der Wissenssendung bereits unmissverständlich verdeutlicht, unterliegen diese Formate dem Anspruch, dem Rezipienten in irgendeiner Weise Wissen zu vermitteln. In den folgenden Ausführungen soll einleitend der Begriff des Lernens definiert werden und diverse Kennzeichen des Lernens besprochen werden. Lernen wird in diesem Zusammenhang insbesondere anhand seiner konstitutiven Teilaspekte, der Aufmerksamkeit und dem Verstehen, behandelt. Folglich steht nicht im Vordergrund, einzelne Lerntheorien wiederzugeben, sondern vielmehr soll Lernen auf den Ebenen aufmerksamkeitsgenerierende Momente und Verstehen der vermittelten Wissensinhalte, auch hinsichtlich der audiovisuellen Beschaffenheit, betrachtet werden. […] 7.3, Formale Elemente der medialen Aufbereitung: Vor dem Hintergrund des konstruktivistischen Lernbegriffs stellen sich im Folgenden die Fragen, wie Verstehen und Lernen bzw. wie Verstehen und Aufmerksamkeit zusammenhängen. Aufmerksamkeit konstituiert sich in diesem Zusammenhang als Vorbedingung für das Verstehen, wobei das Verstehen Vorbedingung für das Lernen ist. Für die Aufmerksamkeit und das Verstehen gibt es jeweils formale Elemente im Fernsehtext, die dies fördern oder auch verhindern. 7.3.1, Schlüsselmoment Aufmerksamkeit: Einen zentralen Faktor bei der audiovisuellen Informationsverarbeitung stellt die Aufmerksamkeit dar. Sie spielt in der Auseinandersetzung insbesondere mit fernsehmedialen Inhalten in doppelter Hinsicht eine wichtige Rolle: Zum einen liegt die Wahl eines Fernsehprogramms zu 100% in den Händen des Rezipienten, genauso wie die Fernbedienung. Sobald Langeweile aufkommt, wird binnen von Sekunden weitergezappt – der Zuschauer geht dem Programm verloren. Zum anderen spielt die Aufmerksamkeit auch hinsichtlich der Informationsverarbeitung, neben der Wahrnehmung, der Motivation und der Emotion, eine basale Rolle im Verstehens- und Lernprozess. Gelingt es einer Information nicht Aufmerksamkeit auf sich zu ziehen oder Konzentration hervorzurufen, wird sie auch keiner weiteren Verarbeitung unterzogen. Doch soll an dieser Stelle auch genannt werden, dass 'in einer Zeit, in der dicke Schlagzeilen und packende Bilder die Aufmerksamkeit der Menschen erregen, mit Information umso bewusster umgegangen werden muss'. Ganz allgemein wird unter Aufmerksamkeit 'ein kognitiver Prozess verstanden, bei dem nicht nur beobachtet wird, sondern aktiv darauf geachtet wird, was vor unseren Augen passiert'. Hervorgerufen wird Aufmerksamkeit dadurch, dass sich das Geschehen nicht mehr mit bestehenden Erwartungen anhand vorheriger Erfahrung deckt. Unerwartetes, Neues und Überraschendes vermag es folglich Aufmerksamkeit auf sich zu ziehen. In diesem Zusammenhang ist auch das Phänomen der Aufmerksamkeitsträgheit von Bedeutung. Mit der Länge der Aufmerksamkeitszuwendung des Rezipienten steigt die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass er bei dieser Sendung verharrt. Im Umkehrschluss bedeutet dies auch, sobald der Rezipient seine Aufmerksamkeit abgewandt hat, ist es umso schwieriger, ihn wieder für die Sendung zu begeistern. Die Bedingungen, die die Aufmerksamkeit verringern könnten, müssen folglich im Vorhinein aus dem medialen Text herausgearbeitet werden. Da Aufmerksamkeitsdetermination vor allem durch mediale Produktions- und Darstellervariablen sowie Inhalten geschieht, wird auf audiovisueller Ebene ständig gezielt versucht diese –möglichst dauerhaft- zu erregen und zu steuern: Auf visueller Ebene sind es u.a. überraschende Bildeffekte durch Kameraschwenks, Zooms, schnelle Schnitte, visuelle Spezialeffekte oder auch die Ästhetik einer Sendung. Akustische Darstellungsmittel sind Musik, Toneffekte, häufige Sprecherwechsel, Art der Ansprache und Humor. Vor allem Kinder reagieren stark auf diese Mittel. Doch gilt es stets zu beachten, dass auch erfolgreiche Stilmittel mit der Zeit an Wirkung verlieren, da sie, wiederum insbesondere von Kindern, schnell erlernt werden und somit das Neue, Fesselnde verloren geht. Von zahlreichen medienpsychologischen Befunden wird belegt, dass audiovisuelle Medien auf Verstehensprozesse einwirken und –insbesondere in Form des Fernsehens- 'eine große Wirkung auf ihre Zuschauer ausüben, die unter gewissen Umständen zu Lerneffekten führen können'. Dies gilt besonders für die auditive Komponente, weil die Aufmerksamkeitssteuerung stark über diesen Kanal abläuft. Auditive Reize können zu einer Steigerung der Aufmerksamkeit beitragen, was eine Grundvoraussetzung für effektive Lernprozesse ist. Häufig problematisch für den Verstehensprozess weist sich in diesem Zusammenhang das Zusammenspiel von Text und Bild auf. Viele Bildsequenzen rekrutieren zwar auf Grund technischer Möglichkeiten beim Zuschauer Aufmerksamkeit, ohne dabei jedoch irgendeine inhaltliche Korrelation aufzuweisen. Strittmatter und Niegemann führen abschließend zu diesem Punkt an, dass 'Aufmerksamkeit eine nur notwendige, nicht aber hinreichende Bedingung für das Verstehen darstellt'. Da die Aufmerksamkeit in jedem Fall aber subjektiv und Sache des Rezipienten ist, wird im empirischen Teil anhand der Aussagen der Jugendlichen nochmals verstärkt auf diesen Aspekt eingegangen. 7.3.2, Verstehen mit Hilfe konstruierter Lernräume: Einschränkend für die Relevanz von Darstellungsmitteln sind Strittmatter und Niegemann der Meinung, dass 'die Inhalte einer Fernsehsendung für die Art der Rezeption und das Verstehen einer Sendung von größerer Bedeutung sind als deren formale Merkmale'. Vor diesem Hintergrund spielt auch die strukturelle und inhaltliche Aufbereitung von Wissensinhalten für das Verstehen eine wichtige Rolle. Lernen durch Begleiten und Faktenlernen anhand modellhafter Erklärungen sind nach Götz die beiden Vermittlungsarten, denen sich Wissenssendungen bedienen, wobei von jeder Sendung eine spezifische Lernumgebung, ein Lernraum, angeboten wird. Das Lernen durch Begleiten lebt von Personalisierung, wobei die Abläufe im Vordergrund stehen. Der Protagonist erlebt und oder begleitet das zu Vermittelnde, wobei Fehler stets korrigiert und revidiert werden können und zudem Anknüpfungspunkte zum Alltag bestehen. Mittels der Strategie des 'Story Telling' sollen die 'Zuschauer miterleben, wie die Wissenschaftler sich der Antwort auf die Frage bzw. der Lösung des Rätsels nähern und sich neue, auch überraschende Zusammenhänge auftun'. Der Lernraum konstruiert sich hauptsächlich auf dem Protagonisten. Mit ihm/ihr werden Abläufe angeschaut und einzelne Stationen kennengelernt. Diese Art der Vermittlung findet sich in Mythbusters-Die Wissensjäger: Im Zentrum der Sendung steht die Vorgehensweise des wissenschaftlichen Experimentes, das von den Protagonisten erarbeitet und begleitet wird. Auch hier lebt die Sendung von den Experten Jamie Hyneman und Adam Savage, mit denen die Rezipienten die Stationen von der Idee bis zur schlussendlichen Durchführung des Experimentes miterleben. Fehler, die während der Erarbeitung oder Durchführung auftreten, werden von den beiden überdacht und revidiert. Darüber hinaus ist die Vermittlungsweise in der Sendung neben der ausgeprägten Personalisierung auch sehr stark emotionalisiert. Adam und Jamie machen aus ihren Gefühlen keinen Hehl, was zur Authentizität beiträgt und Anknüpfung zum eigenen Selbst ermöglicht. Dies wirkt sich dann wiederum auf die kognitiven Prozesse und die Erinnerungsleistung aus. Beim Faktenlernen anhand modellhafter Erklärungen wird angestrebt, dem Rezipienten Fakten mit Hilfe von aufmerksamkeitserregenden Bildern zu vermitteln. Oft verursachen außergewöhnliche Bilder in Kombination mit unerwartet hohen oder niedrigen Zahlenangaben beim Rezipienten eine anregende Wirkung. Ein wichtiger Bestandteil bei dieser Form der Vermittlung ist der Einsatz von didaktisierten Momenten, in denen explizit Fragen benannt werden, Erklärungen gesucht und gefunden werden, sowie die Erklärung mittels von Modellen stattfindet. Auch die Lernräume kennzeichnen sich durch eine maßgeblich didaktisierte Beschaffenheit. Daneben sind die Verwendung von Modellen und Animationen konstituierende Elemente, 'sie können den Aufbau mentaler Modelle unterstützen, wenn sie die exakte Simulation eines kognitiven Prozesses sind und so das Arbeitsgedächtnis entlasten'. Die Art und Weise der Wissensvermittlung in der Sendung Quarks Co. lässt sich vor diesem Hintergrund als Vermittlung von Faktenwissen anhand modellhafter Erklärung beschreiben. Kennzeichnend für die Sendung ist die Verwendung aufwändiger Simulationen und Animationen zur Verdeutlichung der wissenschaftlichen Inhalte. Der häufige Einsatz von Experimenten ermöglicht auch das begleitende Moment der Informationsvermittlung. Der Moderator nimmt die Rolle der Erklärinstanz ein, bleibt als Experte vorwiegend sachlich und kühl. Insbesondere am Beispiel der ausgewählten Folge 'Blitze – faszinierend und gefährlich' findet sich der Einsatz beeindruckender Bilder, beispielsweise von Blitzaufnahmen, in Kombination mit unerwarteten Zahlen, wie der Wahrscheinlichkeit von einem Blitz getroffen zu werden, wieder. Der Lernraum zeichnet sich in der Sendung durch eine starke Didaktisierung aus. Die Einrichtung des Studios mit einer Vielzahl an wissenschaftlichen Gerätschaften zum Beispiel vermittelt unmissverständlich den Eindruck einer Lernumgebung. Nach Bullion gilt für die Sendung aber auch, 'wer bei laufender Sendung Lernerfolge haben will, muss sich anstrengen, denn die Informationsdichte ist hoch - trotz lockerer und unterhaltender Präsentation'.

This year, CEGA was recognized by the American Economic Association (AEA) for our efforts to promote diversity and inclusion in the field of economics and within our center. In this post, Maya Ranganath, Associate Director of Global Networks and Inclusion, reflects on CEGA's inclusion strategy, pointing to unequal power dynamics in global development research and discussing how CEGA ensures that our work — externally and internally — is consistently aligned with our core values.CEGA Fellows, from left to right: Jaah Mkupete, Fola Aina, Hellen Namawejje, Caroline Sitienei Koech, Arnold Musungu, Ojiri Enahoro Innocent, and Muthoni Ng'ang'a, alongside Maya Ranganath at PacDev 2024 | Credit: CEGAAt CEGA, we regularly reflect on what it means to produce evidence for decision-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from our position at an elite academic institution in the United States. In recent years, we have increasingly focused on how scientific narratives are "owned" by privileged groups and have updated our diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice (DEIJ) strategy to address this dynamic. While inclusion has always been core to CEGA, we have consistently updated our strategies to match evolutions in the development research ecosystem.CEGA's theory of change centers our DEIJ goals: our third pillar is to "make the evidence ecosystem more inclusive." We pursue three interlocking objectives in support of this:To center the voices of underrepresented groups — including researchers, decision-makers, and study participants in LMICs — in social science research and policy debates.To ensure that rigorous evidence exists to help decision-makers in LMICs address injustices in society.To create a diverse and welcoming community at CEGA, respect and reflect the communities in which we live and work, and encourage the broader evidence-informed policy ecosystem to seek the same.We pursue these objectives by investing in LMIC scholars and institutions, supporting inclusive and equitable research, promoting ethics in research, diversifying our networks and team, and creating an environment where our staff and researchers feel a sense of belonging. Below we highlight some of the most important aspects of our DEIJ strategy.Investing in LMIC Scholars and InstitutionsSince 2008, CEGA's Global Networks initiative has bolstered the leadership of scholars from Africa, South Asia, and other low-income regions by equipping them with the tools, skills, networks, and funding they need to thrive. We organize short-course workshops, host semester-long fellowships, and provide extensive follow-on support. To date, CEGA has hosted 85 scholars at UC Berkeley, Northwestern University, and virtually. The fellowships provide the opportunity to audit relevant courses, present work in seminars, apply to competitive funding calls, receive mentorship, and network with faculty members and students. These scholars have received nearly $2 million in grant funding to promote their independent research activities and mainstream of development research globally. Program alumni started the Network of Impact Evaluation Researchers in Africa (NIERA) in 2018, an independent organization of former fellows that works to advance decision-focused evaluations in sub-Saharan Africa.Importantly, the capacity-strengthening support we provide to LMIC scholars is designed to meet the demand for training and mentorship in the short- and medium-term. Longer term, we are eager to support the transfer of ownership of these types of programs to LMIC institutions, to leverage their growing capacity and resources to train and mentor the next generation of African scholars.As a learning organization, CEGA is committed to pursuing open inquiry and debate about the barriers to — and opportunities for — inclusion across the evidence-informed policy ecosystem. Through our Collaboration for Inclusive Development Research (CIDR), we are working with NIERA to develop an evidence-based theory of change for inclusion that delineates which stakeholders are best placed to add value at various stages of the research-to-policy pipeline.Supporting Inclusive and Equitable ResearchMany research approaches in development economics reinforce Western notions of "epistemic superiority" over indigenous ways of knowing. CEGA has long encouraged an inclusive approach and a plurality of methods and disciplines that, together, make our research more accessible and more relevant to a broader range of stakeholders. While we continue to prioritize the use of impact evaluations where feasible and appropriate, we also support studies that leverage quasi-experimental methods, qualitative methods, data science, and mixed-methods approaches.As a re-granting institution, we recognize our power to fund research equitably and inclusively and support research that challenges unequal power structures. Our research granting policy formalizes how and when research teams should consider DEIJ criteria when awarding new grants. Typically, when evaluating research proposals, we include criteria that assess the diversity of the research team and of the larger portfolio. We have also developed a "co-authorship statement" with our grant awards outlining how researchers should be credited for their contributions, encouraging greater equity within research teams.CEGA prioritizes research activities that address persistent inequities and injustices in society. This means moving beyond sub-group analysis and conducting research with transformational potential for traditionally disadvantaged groups. For example, CEGA recently established a "Gender & Agency" theme to support gender transformative research aimed at dismantling harmful power structures and promoting gender equity. Additionally, our domestic-facing portfolio, the Opportunity Lab, hosts an initiative on "Racial Equity in the Labor Market," which examines the role of state and federal wage and employment policy in reducing racial disparities and promoting greater equity of economic opportunity in the United States.CEGA's Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences (BITSS) works to democratize the way social science is produced, scrutinized, and shared by realigning incentives for knowledge generation and use. For example, the BITSS catalyst program invests in scholars from LMICs to encourage transparent and reproducible research. Tools and standards that foster open access to data, code, and published research make it easier for LMIC researchers to access and advance new research. Additionally, the Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP) provides a tool for sourcing input from community members, amplifying local knowledge, and helping to inform better research.Diversifying our Network and TeamCEGA continues to pursue a more diverse staff and network of affiliates. We have audited and refined our hiring processes, writing more inclusive job descriptions, disseminating them to diverse institutions, and developing a more equitable interview process. While the work of diversifying our organization will never be "finished," our efforts have yielded some progress: currently, 27% of our staff come from underrepresented backgrounds (as defined by UC Berkeley), up from 9% only three years ago. To track our progress, we conduct annual demographic surveys with staff, measure staff perceptions of the Center's equity and inclusivity, and enable anonymous feedback mechanisms. Meanwhile, we recently revamped our compensation framework to ensure that staff of different backgrounds are compensated equitably and transparently. We also audited and adapted our affiliate nomination process to ensure it is equitable and conducive to a diverse network. Importantly, we maintain a variety of staff forums to discuss our positionality in development research and reflect on current events in our communities.CEGA's DEIJ work is managed by a dedicated working group that I lead as the Associate Director of Global Networks and Inclusion, and guided by an internal DEIJ strategy and set of key performance indicators. We are energized by the AEA's recognition of our efforts over the years, while acknowledging that we have a long way to go to achieve our DEIJ goals. In this spirit, we welcome your comments and feedback on our approach. We further commit to sharing our learnings, including our challenges and failures, openly and transparently. Please stay tuned for more updates on DEIJ in the near future.CEGA's Award-Winning Approach to Promoting Diversity and Inclusion was originally published in CEGA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered his starkest warning yet about the need for new military aid from the United States."It's important to specifically address the Congress," Zelensky said. "If the Congress doesn't help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war."Unfortunately for Zelensky, Congress does not appear to be listening. In fact, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is now on the verge of losing control of the House due to deep Republican disagreements over Ukraine aid and a host of other issues. If Johnson fails to rein in his colleagues, the House may be unable to pass much of anything for the rest of the year.As Kyiv's ammunition shortage worsens, a Wednesday dispute revealed just how weak of a hold the speaker has on his caucus. Johnson is trying to renew a spying authority before it expires on April 19, but a last-minute intervention from former President Donald Trump led Republicans to kill his bill before it even reached the floor.Ukraine and its allies seem to have internalized the lesson that Johnson is now learning: As the presidential election season gets into gear, the center of gravity in Republican politics has shifted southward. Hence why British Foreign Minister David Cameron's pro-Ukraine charm tour made its first stop in Palm Beach, Florida.Cameron met with Trump Monday at Mar-a-Lago, where he pushed the Republican candidate on aid. "[I]t's in everybody's interest that Ukraine is in a strong position and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is in a weak position at the end of this year," Cameron said following the meeting. "Whoever is president wants to be able to push forward in a way that is backing success and not trying to overturn failure."The former British prime minister then went to Washington, where he met with congressional leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Cameron did not, however, sit down with Johnson. A British source told Politico that there were scheduling issues, though the symbolism is hard to ignore.The Biden administration, for its part, has made some efforts to bridge the gap in hopes that the House will eventually pass a new aid package. The White House authorized a $138 million weapons sale on Tuesday, and it followed up by sending Ukraine thousands of Iranian guns and ammunition that the U.S. had seized en route to Yemen last year. But this pales in comparison to the billions of dollars worth of weapons that Kyiv received each month in the early stages of the war.All of this is further complicated by the fact that corruption in Ukraine has led to price gouging on some items purchased by Ukraine's Defense Ministry. "Corruption has been deeply ingrained in Ukraine's defense sector since Soviet times, with manufacturers routinely bribing officials to purchase equipment at inflated prices," the Wall Street Journal reported. "Changing those practices would be hard enough in peacetime, let alone in the midst of war."This leaves Ukraine in its weakest position since the early weeks of the war. Without new aid, Kyiv risks losing both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table, with Moscow holding an apparent advantage in each domain.This wasn't always the case. In late 2022, when Ukrainian forces pushed Russia from the outskirts of Kyiv all the way back to the Donbas, Ukraine had the momentum in every domain. As George Beebe of the Quincy Institute wrote at the time, "Ukraine's successes on the battlefield have provided it with substantial leverage to shape the terms of any settlement.""This success story does not mean that either Russia or Ukraine is yet ready for serious negotiations," Beebe, who previously led Russia analysis at the CIA, argued. "But it offers a window of opportunity for the United States to prepare the diplomatic ground for an eventual settlement of the conflict — a window that may get smaller over time if we do not act now."Beebe's prediction has proved prescient. Russia, now in a much stronger position, has far fewer reasons to grant concessions to Ukraine than it did a year ago. This does not necessarily mean that all is lost. If Congress can pass a new Ukraine aid package, then Kyiv may be able to at least hold onto the stalemate that has prevailed for much of the past year. This would create an opportunity to sue for peace, though likely on less favorable terms than were previously possible.But it does mean that maximalist goals — including the reconquest of Crimea, which Russia has held since 2014 — are that much less realistic now than they were in 2022. Even some mainstream Democrats are coming around to this position, as exemplified by recent comments from Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee."Realistically, Crimea is not coming back to Ukraine, and we can absolutely win this war and absolutely make a difference even in that reality," Smith said in a hearing Wednesday."We do not have to have Crimea to make it 1000% worth it to give Ukraine the money," he argued. "We need a sovereign democratic Ukraine that can survive."In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:— Three drones slammed into a Russian-occupied nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Sunday, reigniting fears that the war could spark a nuclear accident, according to the BBC. Russia blamed Ukraine for the strikes, while Ukrainian officials argued that the Kremlin may have staged it as a "false flag" attack. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the attack was the first direct hit on the plant since late 2022 but noted that there are "no indications of damage to critical nuclear safety or security systems."— European states penned a new deal to enhance cooperation on protecting undersea infrastructure in the North Sea, according to Reuters, which noted that attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022 has focused attention on security issues along Europe's northern coast. Not noted in the Reuters report is the increasingly popular view that Ukraine or pro-Ukrainian forces were behind the attack. The pact — signed by Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom — mostly focuses on sharing information about threats to underwater cables and pipelines, with a focus on potential Russian malfeasance.— The European Union tightened restrictions on imports of Ukrainian produce in an effort to stem concerns that European farmers are being undercut by cheap goods from Ukraine, according to Politico. The issue has taken on particular salience in the run-up to the EU elections, with politicians anxious to avoid political costs from drawn-out fights with farmers, who have staged major protests in Poland and France. As Politico notes, the short-term tug of war over Ukrainian imports signals a larger problem: If Ukraine joins the EU, then farmers across the continent risk being put out of business by Kyiv's massive agricultural sector.— In The Hill, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) argued that "peace talks remain the only viable option" to end the war in Ukraine. "No hard power endgame is viable for the U.S. in Ukraine, and the terms for Ukrainians get worse every minute the U.S. enables the continuation of this war," Lee wrote. "Our best hope to stop the bleeding is at the negotiating table. The blank checks must end, and American statecraft must start."U.S. State Department news:In a Monday press conference, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller renewed the U.S. call for Russia to withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia power plant following this week's attacks. "Russia is playing a very dangerous game with its military seizure of Ukraine's nuclear power plant, which is the largest in Europe," Miller said. "We continue to call on Russia to withdraw its military and civilian personnel from the plant, to return full control of the plant to the competent Ukrainian authorities, and refrain from taking any actions that could result in a nuclear incident at the plant."

In the weeks leading up to President Joe Biden's announcement that U.S. forces and a group of allies launched a series of strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, major media outlets were acutely aware of the risk that Israel's war on Gaza could grow into a wider regional conflict. Yet, in the breadth of stories that covered the Biden administration's desire and efforts to avoid such an escalation, mainstream media rarely mentioned the clearest non-military pathway to easing regional tensions: helping to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The Houthi leadership in Yemen has said their attacks will not cease until Israel's "crimes in Gaza stop and food, medicines and fuel are allowed to reach its besieged population" according to Houthi spokesman Mohammed al-Bukhaiti in December. Who can tell if that's true, but evidence suggests that the attacks in the Red Sea and in Iraq and Syria all but stopped during an earlier brokered "pause" in Gaza in November.But this is never discussed. In the first weeks of January, major media outlets maintained that the Biden administration was grappling with how best to manage the conflict and ensure that it did not extend beyond Gaza. Between October 7 and January 14, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal ran over 60 articles that focused on some aspect of the threat of escalation in the Middle East. At least 14 of them focused on the Biden administration's decision-making process. "Attacks Heighten Fears of a Wider War for the Middle East and U.S.," reported the New York Times. "Tensions in the Middle East are rising beyond Israel. Here's where," said the Washington Post."U.S. Steps Up Diplomatic Push to Avert Broader Middle East War," added the Wall Street Journal. Even following the Jan. 13 strikes in Yemen, media reports contended that the Biden administration was committed to avoiding escalation. "Mr. Biden and his top aides have been loath to take steps that could draw the United States into a wider war in the region, according to the New York Times. But of those 14 articles, only five mention the demands of U.S. adversaries in the region, namely that Israel allow food and medicine into Gaza and end its bombing campaign. In most cases, the articles only briefly note that the Houthi attacks were being carried out "in solidarity" with suffering Gazans. But nowhere in the series of stories about the potential crisis was the pursuit of a ceasefire mentioned as an option.Instead, the articles mostly framed the options as maintaining the status quo or pursuing a military solution."Senior officials said they must decide whether to strike Houthi missile and drone sites in Yemen, or wait to see whether the Houthis back off after the sinking of three of their fast boats and the deaths of their fighters," reported the New York Times on December 31, after a U.S. helicopter sunk three Houthi boats in the Red Sea. "Mr. Biden and his top aides have sought since the Oct. 7 attacks to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas to the Gaza Strip," reads the New York Times' January 3 story on the Biden team's efforts. "The Pentagon dispatched two aircraft carriers and doubled the number of American warplanes to the Middle East to deter Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq from widening the war." If there were critics of the Biden administration, they always preferred a more aggressive path. "Critics of the administration's approach have called the retaliatory strikes insufficient," said the Washington Post on November 8, following U.S. strikes in Syria. Meanwhile, the reports ignored experts who have been pointing to ceasefire as an option for weeks.In making an argument for Washington to take the lead in pushing for an end to violence in November 2023, three fellows at the Century Foundation offered that a ceasefire would "reduce tensions regionally, lessening the risk—currently increasing daily—of a broader war that draws in the United States."A few hours before the strikes in Yemen on Jan. 11, RAND Corporation researcher Alex Stark made the case that pushing for an end to the war in Gaza was the most effective way for Washington to de-escalate tensions with the Houthis. "Like it or not, the Houthis have linked their aggression to Israel's operations in Gaza and have won domestic and regional support for doing so," she wrote in Foreign Affairs. "Finding a sustainable, long-term approach to both conflicts will be critical to de-escalating tensions across the region and getting the Houthis to call off their attacks on commercial vessels."Following the U.S. operations, the New York Times did note that countries like Qatar and Oman "had warned the United States that bombing the Houthis could be a mistake, fearing that it would do little to deter them and would deepen regional tensions. They have argued that focusing on reaching a cease-fire in Gaza would remove the Houthis' stated impetus for the attacks." Experts have said that the inability to link Houthi aggression with the ongoing war is a strategic miscalculation. "That refusal to see the linkage between Gaza and the Red Sea means we also fail to see the overriding security-strategic imperative here: to avoid a further escalation regionally, and to move towards possibilities that are de-escalatory," wrote the Carnegie Endowment's H. A. Hellyer on X."[I]t's about avoiding a situation that gets out of control quickly and easily, and which could have the potential to drag much of the region into a destructive war. We have a number of clear good pathways in that regard, but we've rejected them."To be sure, it is unclear how the Houthis or militias in Iraq and Syria would respond to a pause in hostilities in Gaza. But the short-term humanitarian pauses in Gaza in mid-November led to the only period of relative calm in the region since the outbreak of the war, particularly in terms of attacks on U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria.According to a tracker from The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, as of January 16, there have been 152 anti-U.S. strikes since October 18 in those two countries. None of them took place between November 23, when the short-term ceasefire was announced, and December 3, two days after the truce expired. There was also a notable decrease in Houthi attacks in the Red Sea during that timeframe, according to a timeline compiled by the maritime risk intelligence firm Ambrey Analytics."During the ceasefire that was in place in November their attacks dramatically decreased, providing a degree of empirical evidence that the ceasefire had a strong likelihood of being an effective option to stop the attacks," said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute. "The media never had to endorse this option. And they could also rightfully be scrutinizing and be skeptical about it. But by not mentioning it at all, they deprived the American public awareness that the option even existed, leaving Americans with the false impression that the only option was to do nothing or to escalate by bombing Yemen."Meanwhile, momentum in the push for a ceasefire in official Washington also appears to have hit a snag after Congress's return from the holiday recess. In the weeks following the start of Israel's offensive, perhaps influenced by polls that showed strong public support, the number of members who explicitly called for a ceasefire increased steadily, reaching a total of 62 by December 21.Since then, however, only one new member has joined the calls. Several lawmakers from both parties did criticize the White House for not consulting Congress before bombing Yemen. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) took it a step further, drawing the direct link between Washington's unwillingness to call for a ceasefire and the potential for escalation in the region. "This is why I called for a ceasefire early. This is why I voted against war in Iraq," Lee wrote on X. "Violence only begets more violence. We need a ceasefire now to prevent deadly, costly, catastrophic escalation of violence in the region."

A senior Democratic lawmaker recently said that its easier to back Israeli government policy, in many instances at the expense of the Palestinians, because pro-Israel lobbyists have a relatively more influential presence on Capitol Hill. "The Palestinians have very legitimate claims" and have been "subject to brutal injustice," Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, said in a meeting with constituents on October 23. But he added, pro-Israel groups — including J Street and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) — make many members of Congress reflexively pro-Israel simply because it is "the path of least resistance." While polling shows that most Americans consider themselves pro-Israel, their support is not entirely unconditional when it comes to how the Israelis are waging the war against Hamas in Gaza.A recent survey of likely American voters found that 61% support the call for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, where weeks of intense bombing by the Israel Defense Forces have caused widespread devastation. Despite this widespread support, only 14% of the U.S. House of Representatives have come out publicly in favor of a ceasefire.But pro-Israel groups make significant campaign contributions, visit members of Congress frequently, and pressure them to back the activities of the Israeli government, critics who spoke with RS say. Rep. Himes held an online meeting to discuss the Israel-Palestine conflict with constituents on October 23, led by the Connecticut chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations. According to a recording of the event obtained by Responsible Statecraft, when asked about his tendency to reflexively begin his statements with support for Israel, Himes responded with several answers, one of which addressed the near-constant presence of pro-Israel lobbyists:"[I]n this office, I get 6-8 visits a year by AIPAC, which is a fairly right-wing pro-Israeli group, and J Street, which is a left-leaning pro-Israeli group. I have never had a visit — never once, I've been doing this for 15 years — by a pro-Palestinian group. And again, I'm not criticizing anybody, I'm just sort of explaining the facts as they appear. And I think, therefore, the path of least resistance for an awful lot of members of Congress is to be reflexive the way you were concerned about. And the reason I would love to talk more about that is because, you know, the Palestinians have very legitimate claims, and in times and places have been subject to brutal injustice, and yet there is nobody telling their story."Himes pointed to the influence of AIPAC to help explain the lopsided support for Israel in congress: "AIPAC has been doing this for 60 years. They come in and they sit in the office, and they say, you know, 'Here's three things that we would really like you to consider doing, are you going to do it?' And I'm not saying AIPAC is good or bad, I'm just saying that I know what is effective in educating members of Congress, and honestly it breaks my heart that there isn't a Palestinian group that comes in and says, 'Look, let us tell you what our aspirations are, let us tell you some stories, let us tell you what the settlers are doing outside of, you know, Ramallah.'""I'd be curious to know what he means by 'path of least resistance,'" Foundation for Middle East Peace President Lara Friedman told Responsible Statecraft. "Does he mean, 'this is the path that gets me rewarded in terms of campaign support,' or, on the other hand, 'how I avoid other possible negative consequences like someone giving massive support to my primary opponent?'"Rep. Himes has not traditionally received much financial support from pro-Israel groups. However, last year saw the most campaign spending by pro-Israel donors of any congressional cycle in the last 30 years. Amid this wave of money, the largest contributor to Himes' campaign committee in 2022 was AIPAC. The group has recently clashed publicly with several critics in Congress, ranging from Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wisc.) to Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). Next year, AIPAC-affiliated groups are expected to spend upwards of $100 million on primary elections in an effort to oust Democratic lawmakers they view are insufficiently supportive of Israel or too vocal about Palestinian rights. The influence of this campaign spending is well-known among congressional insiders. "Any member of Congress knows that AIPAC is associated indirectly with significant amounts of campaign spending if you're with them, and significant amounts against you if you're not with them," former Rep. Brian Baird (D-Wash.) told The New Yorker in 2014. "When key votes are cast, the question on the House floor, troublingly, is often not 'What is the right thing to do for the United States of America?' but 'How is AIPAC going to score this'"?In his congressional votes and public statements, Rep. Himes has charted a course in between his party's biggest supporters and biggest critics of Israel. He explained during the Oct. 23 meeting his reasons for not supporting the calls for a lasting ceasefire. "Unless somebody can convince me that there is an alternative mechanism for bringing these terrorists that perpetrated this grave, grave crime against Israel… to justice, I will not do that," Himes said in reference to Hamas's attacks on October 7. Yet the congressman also opposed the move to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) for her advocacy on the issue."My theme has been two-fold," said Himes, "which is that we will support Israel in the face of this disgusting attack, and number two, that we need to make sure that the Israeli response is moderated, that they abide by the laws of armed conflict, that they come off of their rhetoric of leveling Gaza, of a siege, and that everything be done with an eye towards what is right from a humanitarian standpoint."The eight-term congressman attended Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to a joint session of Congress in 2015 where he bashed President Obama's diplomacy with Iran and received a standing ovation. But Rep. Himes had harsh words for the controversial leader during the Oct. 23 constituent meeting."This problem will not go away until there is a two-state solution," he said. "Very sadly, the current Israeli prime minister has been doing pretty much everything he can to make that an impossibility. And, of course, that's a part of the reason why the rage and anger rose to the levels that it did" prior to Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks. More than two months after the attacks, members of Congress are increasingly voicing concern about Israel's bombardment of Gaza and President Biden called Israel's bombing campaign "indiscriminate," positions that appear to have become more acceptable weeks after the call in which Himes referred to pro-Israel positions as the "path of least resistance."Friedman credits that shift, at least partially, to growing engagement by voters concerned about the civilian death toll in Gaza."Constituent engagement matters, especially since the Gaza war started," said Friedman. "Members are now talking about ceasefire and other things we didn't hear in the first few weeks. Members are starting to show a bit more empathy and concern for what is happening in Gaza."Rep. Himes' office did not respond to requests for comment.

A recent essay from Israeli writer Gadi Taub in Tablet makes clear that Israel's war in Gaza is not its last. Israel is going "to shed its defensive strategy and go on the offensive." That means taking out Hezbollah and then taking on "a multifaceted struggle against Iran over its drive for regional hegemony and its nuclear weapons program."Taub, whose hawkish views in many ways reflect the vital center of Israel opinion, sees the Biden administration as following a longstanding Democratic policy of appeasing Iran. In sharp contrast to Henry Kissinger, whose 1970s diplomacy he lauds, Taub finds Secretary of State Antony Blinken's policy to be a disaster. "By empowering the Iranians, Blinken's policy will inevitably also further the penetration of the region by Iran's patrons, the Russians and the Chinese, at America's expense. Kissinger's policy was focused on pushing America's great power rivals out. American policy today is inviting them in."The Dream Palace of the IsraelisThe most extraordinary feature of Taub's essay is its unreal portrait of the regional forces arrayed for and against Israel. Iran, Taub writes, "is at war with the old American regional alliance system — which includes Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. But Secretary Blinken and President Biden are appeasing the new radicals, not containing them."In this imaginary tableau, shared by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel is in an unspoken but deep alliance with the Sunni Arab states, who want to see Hamas crushed and Iran and its proxies relentlessly attacked. What these rulers say in public, so the story goes, is miles apart from what they say in private. In public, of course, Arab leaders are breathing fire about Israel's mad amplification of the Dahiya Doctrine in Gaza. In private, these Arab leaders are reportedly telling U.S. and Israeli insiders (but seemingly no one else) that they heartily approve Israeli's operations. This Israeli view of Arab leaders is delusional. Yes, Arab leaders have big issues with Hamas. But they also think, as do their people, that Israel's extreme violence in Gaza may open the gates of hell, as the 2003 Iraq War once did. They don't think it's possible to pulverize Hamas into oblivion, because new defiant leaders will inevitably emerge. Israel, in their view, is not solving anything, but rather magnifying insecurity in the region. The (feeble) attempt by Blinken to put restraints on Israel's conduct of the war in Gaza is said by Taub to invite Russia and China into the region, but in fact it is Israel's policy that does so. That policy pushes Iran and America's traditional Arab coalition into one another's arms, making them realize that they have congruent interests in opposing Israeli plans. These interests, in turn, are likewise simpatico with those of Russia and China right now. Taub believes that Israel's coming offensives would break the new relations between the Saudis and the Sino-Russian bloc. No, these relations would be strengthened. This Islamic consensus — which joins Arabs, Iranians, and Turks and is supported by Russia and China — would be given further impetus if Israeli ambitions in the West Bank are fully realized. Another Nakba in Gaza and in the West Bank is anathema to America's Arab friends. Yet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks of the Palestinian Authority just as harshly as Hamas or Hezbollah. He has rejected U.S. proposals to bring the PA into Gaza after the war. Netanyahu maintains within his coalition powerful ministers (National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich) who have big plans for the West Bank and Temple Mount. In this regard there appears to be a fourth security front in the West Bank and Jerusalem, distinct from Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Washington as Enabler and RestrainerTaub hangs his essay on a comparison between Henry Kissinger's Middle East diplomacy in the 1970s and Antony Blinken's policy today. Kissinger, Taub relates, taught a masterclass in diplomacy. Arab leaders, Kissinger saw, "would understand that only the U.S. could deliver Israeli concessions, and that the price–peace with Israel and breaking with the Soviet orbit–would be worth it. It worked."Fast forward to today. If the United States cannot or will not deliver Israeli concessions, surely its leverage with the Arab states is sharply diminished. Israel is totally dependent on U.S. arms for the conduct of its current and projected operations. "The Israelis are playing with house money," as one U.S. official puts it. As of December 1, transfers loaded on to U.S. cargo planes included 15,000 bombs and 57,000 artillery shells. More is on the way. The Biden administration has lots of leverage over Israel. They are just unwilling to use it. The Biden administration has rightly warned Israel against a big offensive operation in Lebanon. Hezbollah is in a use-it-or-lose-it situation with respect to its offensive systems, with Hezbollah reportedly having 100,000 to 150,000 missiles and rockets, far superior to Hamas's force. The evacuation after October 7 of some 80,000 Israelis from communities bordering Lebanon is undoubtedly an unacceptable outcome for Israel, but Israel cannot seek to eliminate Hezbollah without incurring grave risks to its own population. It would be far better for Israelis to reoccupy the northern towns under the auspices of the mutual deterrence that prevailed before October 7, rather than to launch a big war against Hezbollah. However, the Israelis clearly think otherwise. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has promised a military campaign to drive Hezbollah beyond the Litani River unless Hezbollah heeds Israel's ultimatum to evacuate the border region. The horrifying risk from such an escalation is that Israel would turn Beirut and southern Lebanon into Gaza. If Taub's views are a reliable guide, the Israelis have totally given up on Biden and the Democrats. The putative "appeasement" of Iran is not "an offhand mistake of the Democratic Party" but "a premeditated strategy designed to strengthen Iran at the expense of America's traditional allies." At a time when Arab Americans and their allies are livid with Biden and Blinken, it is curious to find Taub and the Israelis joining in the execration. The former group hates B&B for giving Israel the greenest of green lights, the other for the bright red lights (stop with the civilian killing, don't invade Lebanon) that Taub discerns. The administration's position is unenviable. On one side is the geopolitical disaster that follows from a blank check to Israel, on the other the domestic perils of having a gigantic fight with Netanyahu and the whole Israeli nation. In this acute battle between the national interest and personal political survival, will President Biden do a John Adams and choose country over party? I do not have an answer to this question. One thing is crystal clear. Supporting Israel means supporting a grand design that calls for a war on all fronts, financed and enabled by the United States. The Israelis seem to have no consciousness of the fact that previous uses of force in Lebanon and Palestine didn't solve their security problem. Instead, they believe that more destruction, on a Dresden-like scale, will do this time around what it has not done in the past. Given Israel's lonely existence in a sea of Muslims, this belief seems irrational to me. Israel cannot get rid of its security problem or its enemies by the massive use of force. Escalation imperils Israelis as much as it imperils their neighbors. But the Israelis hold to their belief in force with theological conviction, and the belief should be taken with the utmost seriousness. Thus far, this irresistible force has not encountered an immovable object.

The alliance system of the United States is frequently called an empire, and for good reason. But it is a peculiar form of empire, in which the metropolitan center seems directed and ruled by the periphery. In the classic idea of empire, rule flowed from the top down. Not in this one. This inversion is nowhere more evident than in the relationship between the United States and Israel. Biden responded to the October 7 attacks by giving Israel total support for its aim of destroying Hamas. The same pattern is apparent in policy toward Ukraine. For 18 months, the Biden administration did not dare to set limits on Ukraine's war aims, though these anticipated, absurdly, total victory over Russia, with Vladimir Putin in the dock at the end. These certitudes, however, have begun to shake. Within the administration, there seems to have been a great awakening over the last few weeks that neither course is sustainable. The gist of recent reporting is as follows: the Ukrainians are losing the war and have to acknowledge that fact, better now than later. The Israelis are behaving barbarically and have got to be reined in, else our reputation in the world is ruined. On the Ukraine front, there were two bombshells. One was an NBC story that painted a dire picture of the military situation and reported that U.S. and European diplomats were telling Ukraine of the need to restrict its aims. It's too late in the day to hope for anything other than a stalemate, said one former administration official: "it's time to do a deal." The other was a long essay in Time that characterized Zelensky as a messianic and fanatical figure, out of touch with Ukraine's worsening prospects. Corruption is even worse than alleged. The West is scraping the bottom of the barrel for key military items. Ukraine's military can't find new recruits. More appropriations from Congress, even the $61 billion requested by the administration, can solve none of these problems.For 18 months, the Biden administration insisted that Ukraine's aims were wholly its own to determine and that the United States would support them regardless. With Ukraine's summer offensive having met with almost total failure, the administration appears to be getting cold feet. This is all very hush-hush, with "quiet" discussions reputedly going on behind the scenes. It's probable, indeed, that Biden's advisers are divided. Though official policy hasn't changed a whit, the impetus to do so is clearly there. The bind over Israel is yet more acute. According to widespread reports, Biden and his advisers believe that Israel is embarked on a mad project in Gaza. They see that the United States — having given Israel a green light, a blank check, and tons of bombs — will be held directly responsible for the awful humanitarian consequences. They don't think Israel has defined a coherent endgame. They fear they are presiding over a moral enormity. They see a precipitous collapse in support from others. Over the past month, Biden has warned the Israelis not to act out of anger and vengeance in retaliation for October 7, advised against a ground invasion of Gaza, and insisted that Israel seek to avoid civilian deaths as much as possible. Use smaller bombs, say Biden's military advisers. Eroding support, his administration told the Israelis, "will have dire strategic consequences for Israel Defense Forces operations against Hamas." Last weekend, Secretary of State Antony Blinken went to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with these ideas and with a request for a "humanitarian pause." Bibi's response: ain't gonna happen. I have an idea. The United States could threaten to suspend military shipments to Israel if it failed to agree to a ceasefire. That might make an impression. Defying Israel, however, is something that no president since George H.W. Bush has been willing to do. The U.S. approach over the last 30 years, as now, has been in the voice of a steadfast friend: "This is really for your own good, but we wouldn't dare demand it of you." Hug the Israelis tight and reassure them endlessly of your undying commitment; that was the way to win an argument with them. There have been some Israeli leaders who responded to this approach, but Benjamin Netanyahu was never one of them. Bill Clinton's comment after first meeting with Netanyahu in 1996 — "Who's the fucking superpower here? — reflects Bibi's considered judgment that he can call forth domestic opposition in the United States that will nullify any threat from a U.S. president. Today, 66% of Americans want a ceasefire, according to one poll, but less than five percent of the House of Representatives does, so maybe Bibi knows whereof he speaks. AIPAC is busy with attack ads against the few brave congresspeople who have criticized Israel and called for a ceasefire. But Biden has to worry about America's larger role in the world and is alive to the likelihood that what is coming in Gaza will wreck America's legitimacy. Who in the non-West could ever bear again a lecture from the United States on its zealous commitment to human rights? What would this do to America's case against Russia? On present trends — no exit to the Sinai for the mass of Gaza's population, the complete collapse of the health and sanitation systems, relentless Israeli military pressure and economic blockade, 1.5 million already displaced — it is difficult to see how the total casualty count among Gazans avoids numbers in the hundreds of thousands. Probably many more will die from disease and epidemics than from bullets and bombs. The experience, as Netanyahu has said, will be remembered "for decades to come." What if it registers in world public opinion as an historic crime? Incredibly, advocates of total war against Hamas invoke Dresden, Hiroshima, and other atrocities to justify their course, neglecting that neither Germany nor Japan had anyone to weep for them after the war, whereas Palestinians have 1.8 billion Muslims to weep over them today. The obvious fact is that Israel cannot pursue to the end its aim of destroying Hamas without causing death on a biblical scale. There is no reason whatsoever for the United States to embrace these aims.Biden's choice is to get tough with the Israelis or to go along with what he fears is going to be a gigantic catastrophe. There are precedents for getting tough, but they are admittedly distant ones. Dwight Eisenhower did it in 1956 over the Anglo-French-Israeli Suez adventure. Bush I did it in 1991 over loan guarantees to Israel. But the most resonant example is 1982, when Ronald Reagan told Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin to cease Israeli's bombardment of Beirut. "Menachem," Reagan said, "this is a holocaust." To Reagan's surprise, his threat of an agonizing reappraisal worked. "I didn't know I had that kind of power," he told his aide Mike Deaver. At the time of Reagan's threat, the death toll from two and a half months of war approached 20,000, of which nearly half were civilians.Can Biden summon the will to confront Netanyahu? Will his administration force Ukraine to the bargaining table? In our weird empire, where dependents call the shots, deeply embedded tendencies dictate a negative answer to both questions, though wise policy would dictate positive ones. Perhaps the time is ripe for a new policy in which America consults its own national interests rather than theirs.