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Online Communities and Social Media -- Stock BBS Factor Model Using Principal Component Score -- How Consumer-Generated Advertising Works: An Empirical Agent-Based Simulation -- Understanding Citizens' Channel Choice of Public Service Delivery: An Agent-Based Simulation Approach -- Cyclical Pattern of the Rise and Fall of an Online Community Due to a Troll -- Economic and Social Networks -- On the Indeterminacy of the Clearing Payment Vectors in Numerical Simulations on Financial Networks -- Three-State Opinion Formation Model on Adaptive Networks and Time to Consensus -- Achieving Consensus with Segregation in Multiple Social Contexts -- Behavioral Finance and Macroeconomics -- How Does Overconfidence Affect Asset Pricing, Volatility, and Volume? -- Analyzing the Validity of Passive Investment Strategies Under Financial Constraints -- Macroeconomic Forecasting with Agent-Based Models: Prediction and Simulation of the Impact of Public Policies on SMEs -- Influence of the Corporation Tax Rate on GDP in an Agent-Based Artificial Economic System -- Demographics, Health Care, Linguistics, and Sociology -- Semi-Artificial Models of Populations: Connecting Demography with Agent-Based Modelling -- An Agent-Based Approach for Patient Satisfaction and Collateral Health Effects -- Complex Evolutionary Pathways in Interacting Linguistic Communities -- Socio-Cognitive Influences on Social Stratification -- Participatory Modeling -- A Computational Study of Rule Learning in "Do-It-Yourself Lottery" with Aggregate Information -- Agent-Based Social Simulation as an Aid to Communication Between Stakeholders -- Hybrid Approach of Agent-Based and Gaming Simulations for Stakeholder Accreditation -- Methodology -- When Does Simulated Data Match Real Data? -- Towards Validating a Model of Households and Societies in East Africa -- Social Simulation Comparison in Arbitrary Problem Domains: First Steps Towards a More Principled Approach.

Award winning system developer explains how to create, test, and implement a profitable trading system/b Traders have long been drawn to the idea of translating their strategies and ideas into trading systems. While successful trading systems have been developed, in most cases, they work very well for a period of time in specific markets, but perform less well across all markets in all time frames. Nobody understands this better than author Keith Fitschen'a thought-leader in trading system development'and now, with iTrading Strategy Generation + Website/i, he shares his extensive experience in this field with you. iTrading Strategy Generation/i skillfully explains how to take market insights or trading ideas and develop them into a robust trading system. In it, Fitschen describes the critical steps a trader needs to follow, including: translating the market insight into a rules-based approach; determining entry and exit points; testing against historical data; and integrating money management and position sizing into the system.ulliWritten by an award winning system developer who has actively traded his systems for thirty years/liliIntroduces new ideas on money management and position sizing for different markets/liliDetails exactly what it takes to build, test, and implement a profitable technical trading systemliliA companion Website contains supplementary material, including Excel spreadsheets designed to rate the strength of entry signals and provide money management guidance based on market volatility and portfolio correlations/ul Written with the serious trader in mind, iTrading Strategy Generation/i is an accessible guide to building a system that will generate realistic returns over time

Intro -- ENERGY INITIATIVES AND STRATEGIES IN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE -- ENERGY INITIATIVES AND STRATEGIES IN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- Chapter 1 DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE ENERGY INITIATIVES: BACKGROUND AND ISSUES FOR CONGRESS* -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- BACKGROUND -- DOD's Use of Fuels -- In General -- The Services -- Air Force -- Navy and Marine Corps -- Army -- Operational Energy vs. Installation Energy -- How DOD Buys Fuels -- Defense Logistics Agency-Energy (DLA-E) -- Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel -- Contractor Fuel Costs -- Challenges and Risks Associated with DOD's Use of Fuels -- Financial -- Possible Longer-Term Trend of Increasing Fuel Costs -- Shorter-Term Volatility of Fuel Costs -- Operational -- Diversion of Resources -- Restraint on Mobility and System Effectiveness -- Vulnerability of Fuel Supply Lines -- Strategic -- Getting Fuel to the Area of Operations -- Ensuring the Global Free Flow of Oil -- DOD's Energy Initiatives -- DOD Office of Operational Energy Plans and Programs -- Air Force -- Navy -- Marine Corps -- Army -- Past Legislation on DOD Energy Use -- Installation Energy -- Operational Energy -- Position of Assistant Secretary of Defense for Operational Energy Plans and Programs -- DOD Policy on Fuel Efficiency of Weapon Platforms -- Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel As An Acquisition Consideration -- Annual DOD Reports Relating to DOD Energy Use -- Annual Energy Performance Master Plan -- Annual Report Related to Operational Energy -- Other Annual Reports -- ISSUES FOR CONGRESS -- DOD Coordination of Service Operational Energy Initiatives -- Data and Metrics For Evaluating DOD's Initiatives -- DOD Estimate of Future Fuel Costs -- DOD Role in Federal Energy Initiatives -- Navy Role in Developing Advanced Biofuels -- Implications of Changes in Strategy -- APPENDIX A. DOD BUDGET DEFLATION FACTORS

Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Table of Contents -- List of Tables -- List of Figures and Exhibits -- List of Abbreviations -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- 1. Introduction: The International Monetary System -- 2. Money in Economics of the Open Economy -- 2.1 Introduction: What is Money? -- 2.2 David Hume and the Quantity Theory of Money -- 2.3 Purchasing Power Parity Theory -- 2.4 The Monetarist Arithmetic -- 2.5 Balance of Payments Adjustment -- 2.6 The Absorption Model of the Balance of Trade -- 2.7 The Monetary Approach -- 2.8 Classical and Keynesian Models: A Comparison -- 2.9 Money in New Open Economy Models -- 2.10 Extension of OB-RO Model -- 2.11 The Steady State Again -- 2.12 Uncertainity and Stochastic Nature -- 2.13 Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Pass-through -- 2.14 More on Micro Structure of Exchange Rate -- 2.15 Stabilization Programme in Crisis Economies: Monetarist Approach and Polak Model -- 2.16 G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility -- 3. Money Growth, Inflation and Seigniorage -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Measurement of Seigniorage -- 3.3 Broader Definition of Seigniorage -- 3.4 Seigniorage and Exchange Rate -- 3.5 Dynamic Effects -- 3.6 Cost of Seigniorage -- 3.7 Conclusion -- 4. Multinational Corporations and Emerging Economies -- 4.1 Greenfield Investment and Merger and Acquisition: A Comparison -- 4.2 Technology Issue -- 4.3 Indian Case -- 4.4 Market Structure and Competition -- 4.5 Sequential Market Entry: A Case Study of Sony Corporation in the United States -- 5. International Financial System: A Historical Evolution -- 5.1 The Gold Standard -- 5.2 The Demise of Classical Gold Standard -- 5.3 The Bretton Woods International Monetary System -- 5.4 Multilateral Payments Mechanism -- 5.5 Resources of IMF -- 5.6 The Structure of Organization

The global financial crisis triggered a broad reassessment of economic integration policies in developed and developing countries worldwide. The crisis-induced collapse in trade was the sharpest ever since World War II, affecting all countries and all product categories. A huge shock to the trading system, combined with severe macroeconomic instability, makes it natural for policymakers to call into question the basic underlying assumptions of trade liberalization and openness. In particular, outward-oriented or export-led growth strategies are being reassessed as openness is increasingly associated with greater volatility. However, it is crucial not to lose sight of the dynamic benefits that openness can offer. Examples include technology transfer, increased competitive pressure that reduces markups and improves efficiency, and economies of scale. The real question is how to manage outward-oriented strategies so as to maximize the benefits of openness while minimizing risks. This book aims to contribute to this important and ongoing policy debate, bringing together recent empirical work on the trade collapse, its causes and consequences, and the broader trade policy agenda in the post-crisis environment. It addresses critical policy issues revolving around the topic of outward-oriented growth strategy, including policy instruments that help manage risks associated with outward-orientation, lessons learned from the crisis for particular countries and regions, and how emerging trade policy issues such as climate change, commodities, global production networking, and migration affect the prospects for recovery and outward-oriented growth.

A comprehensive guide to the world's largest financial market. Foreign exchange is the world's largest financial market and continues to grow at a rapid pace. As economies intertwine and currencies fluctuate there is hardly a corporate entity that doesn't need to use options on foreign exchange to hedge risk or increase returns. Moreover, currency options, both vanilla and exotic, are part of standard toolkit of professional portfolio managers and hedge funds. Written by a practitioner with real-world experience in this field, the Third Edition of Options on Foreign Exchange opens with a substantive discussion of the spot and forward foreign exchange market and the mechanics of trading currency options. The Black-Scholes-Merton option-pricing model as applied to currency options is also covered, along with an examination of currency futures options. Throughout the book, author David DeRosa addresses the essential elements of this discipline and prepares you for the various challenges you could face... Updates new developments in the foreign exchange markets, particularly regarding the volatility surface. Includes expanded coverage of the currency crises and capital controls, electronic trading, forward contracts, exotic options, and more. Employs real-world terminology so you can a firm understanding of this dynamic marketplace. The only way to truly succeed in today's foreign exchange market is by becoming more familiar with currency options. The Third Edition of Options on Foreign Exchange will help you achieve this goal and put you in better position to make more profitable decisions in this arena.

Intro -- Table of Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Selected Abbreviations -- Overview and Policy Messages: Mobilizing Finance and Managing Vulnerability -- Capital flows to developing countries continued to recover, but at a slower pace -- The world economy is slowing -- Growing global imbalances pose risks for emerging market economies -- The complexity of developing-country debt poses new challenges -- Meeting poor countries' financing needs requires recognition of the countries' special challenges -- Chapter 1 Financial Flows to Developing Countries: Recent Trends and Near-Term Prospects -- Capital flows to developing countries -- Capital flows from the private sector -- Capital flows from the official sector -- Annex: Recent trends in workers' remittances to developing countries -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 2 Global Outlook and the Developing Countries -- Global growth -- Global imbalances, currencies, and inflation -- World trade -- Commodity markets -- Risks and policy priorities for the global economy -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 3 Global Imbalances and Emerging Market Economies -- The mixed effect of exchange-rate fluctuations -- Global monetary tightening: higher interest rates -- Potential volatility in emerging-market spreads -- Capital flows and reserve accumulation -- Promoting stability in global capital flows -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 4 Complex Challenges in Developing-Country Debt -- The change since the 1990s -- External debt trends in emerging markets -- The rise of domestic debt markets -- Balancing external and domestically financed debt -- No room for complacency, despite improvements -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 5 Meeting the Financing Needs of Poor Countries -- The external financing environment in poor countries -- Other developing countries as a source of finance for poor countries.

Intro -- Contents -- Tables and Figures -- Introduction -- A Theoretical Review of the Keynesian and Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments -- Full Employment, Balance of Payments and Adjustments in Unified (Fixed) Exchange Rate Regimes -- A Survey of the Monetary Approach to International Finance -- An Empirical Review of the Keynesian and Monetary Theories to the Balance of Payments -- Empirical Evidence for the Traditional Approach to the Capital Account -- The Traditional Theory to the Current Account: An Empirical Examination -- Empirical Evidence for the Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments Adjustments -- Criticisms of the Keynesian and Monetary Views of Balance of Payments Determination -- A Critique of the Traditional Approach to International Finance -- The Monetary Theory of the Balance of Payments: A Retrospective Analysis -- A Theoretical Comparison of the Keynesian and Monetary Theories to the Balance of Payments -- Keynesian and Monetary Approaches to the Balance of Payments -- Empirical Comparisons of the Keynesian and Monetary Theories of Balance of Payments Determination -- International Adjustment for Kenya: The Relevance of the Traditional and Monetary Approaches -- A Comparison of the Monetary and Traditional Approaches to International Competitiveness -- The Keynesian and Monetary Approaches to International Accounts Adjustment: Some Heuristics for Germany -- The Role of Exogeneity, Causality and Exchange- Rate Volatility in the Modeling of U. S. Export- Demand Function: Some New Evidence -- A Review of the Theoretical Literature on Exchange Rate Determination -- The Traditional Approach to Balance of Payments Adjustment under Flexible Exchange Rates -- Doctrinal Views on Exchange Rate Determination: An Eclectic Approach -- Empirical Evidence on Exchange Rate Determination.

Technological, economic, and regulatory changes are some of the driving forces in the modern world of finance. For instance, financial markets now trade twenty-four hours a day and securities are increasingly being traded via real-time computer-based systems in contrast to trading floor-based systems. Equally important, new security forms and pricing models are coming into existence in response to changes in domestic and international regulatory action. Accounting and risk management systems now enable financial and investment firms to manage risk more efficiently while meeting regulatory concerns. The challenge for academics and practitioners alike is how to keep themselves, and others, current with these changing markets, as well as the technology and current investment and risk management tools. Applications in Finance, Investments, and Banking offers presentations by twelve leading investment professionals and academics on a wide range of finance, investment and banking issues. Chapters include analysis of the basic foundations of financial analysis, as well as current approaches to managing risk. Presentations also include reviews of the means of measuring the volatility of the underlying return process and how investment performance measurement can be used to better understand the benefits of active management. Finally, articles also present advances in the pricing of the new financial assets (e.g., swaps), as well as the understanding of the factors (e.g., earnings estimates) affecting pricing of the traditional assets (e.g., stocks). Applications in Finance, Investments, and Banking provides beneficial information to the understanding of both traditional and modern approaches of financial and investment management

Biodiversity dynamics: niche preemption and saturation in diversity equilibria / Michael L. McKinney -- Do taxa persist as metapopulations in evolutionary time? / Susan Harrison -- Geographic range fragmentation and the evolution of biological diversity / Brian A. Maurer and M. Philip Nott -- Detecting ecological pattern in phylogenies / J.L. Gittleman, C.G. Anderson, S.E. Cates, H-K. Luh, and J.D. Smith -- Testing models of speciation and extinction with phylogenetic trees of extant taxa / Jody Hey, Holly Hilton, Nicholas Leahy, and Rong-Lin Wang -- Dynamics of diversification in state space / Daniel W. McShea -- Diversification of body sizes: patterns and processes in the assembly of terrestrial mammal faunas / Douglas A. Kelt and James H. Brown -- The role of development in evolutionary radiations / Gunther J. Eble -- Evolutionary turnover and volatility in higher taxa / Norman L. Gilinski -- Scaling the ecosystem: a hierarchical view of stasis and change / Kenneth M. Schopf and Linda C. Ivany -- Nested patterns of species distribution: processes and implications / Alan H. Cutler -- Equilibrial diversity dynamics in North American mammals / John Alroy -- Scales of diversification and the Ordovician radiation / Arnold I. Miller and Shuguang Mao -- Preston's ergodic conjecture: the accumulation of species in space and time / Michael L. Rosenzweig -- An intermediate disturbance hypothesis of maximal speciation / Warren D. Allmon, Paul J. Morris, and Michael L. McKinney -- Turnover dynamics across ecological and geological scales / Gareth J. Russell -- Catastrophic fluctuations in nutrient levels as an agent of mass extinction: upward scaling of ecological processes? / Ronald E. Martin -- Scale-independent interpretations of macroevolutionary dynamics / Richard B. Aronson and Roy E. Plotnick

This article constitutes a new contribution to the analysis of overlapping instruments to cover the same emission sources. Using both an analytical and a numerical model, we show that when the risk that the CO2 price drops to zero and the political unavailability of a CO2 tax (at least in the European Union) are taken into account, it can be socially optimal to implement an additional instrument encouraging the reduction of emissions, for instance a renewable energy subsidy. Our analysis has both a practical and a theoretical purpose. It aims at giving economic insight to policymakers in a context of increased uncertainty concerning the future stringency of the European Emission Trading Scheme. It also gives another rationale for the use of several instruments to cover the same emission sources, and shows the importance of accounting for corner solutions in the definition of the optimal policy mix.

The need for financial stability became apparent after the devastating events of the 2008 financial crisis. It was around this time that central banks around the world started to construct and implement scientific methods to assess financial stability. This research gives a comprehensive understanding of financial stability and makes use of scientific methodology by constructing the financial stress index for South Africa from periods 2006 through 2015 to predict and attain financial stability. After the 2008 global financial crisis, South African policymakers have put in place some policies and tools to enhance financial stability. To complement these policies, a new financial framework was developed, that is, the twin peaks model to continuously gather data and asses financial stability on a continuous basis. To put this framework into practice the financial stress indicator or index acted as a single comprehensive tool to measure and monitor stability. Included in this index are indicators that capture the different dimensions of the banking sector. The results gathered from this index contribute to the understanding of financial stability and how it is measured. It was found that the volatility or patterns of the financial stress index could be used as predictions and early warning tools for policymakers or the Central Bank to step in and contain potential risks. Moreover, from the empirical data collected the financial stability policies in South Africa are effective, as the financial stability index after the period of crises remained stable.

The article analyzes the configuration, ideology, program and electorate of two national-populist parties in Poland — "Kukiz'15" and "KORWiN", which showed significant results in the 2015 and 2019 elections and thereby demonstrated society has a demand for change. Further, the possible reasons for the populist success are considered in terms of the increase in the amount of demand because of the socioeconomic situation, the problem of migration and the high volatility of the party system. And from the point of view of increasing the quality of the proposal the article deals with the development of communication channels "party — voter", the use of the Internet in electoral campaigns and adaptation to the policies pursued by the ruling party "Law and Justice" (Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc). The 2015 Polish parliamentary elections were characterized by the successful debut of the right-wing populist and anarchist "Kukiz'15". Nearly a quarter of her voters in 2015 voted for the left-wing populist "Palikot Movement" in 2011, when it debuted in elections and entered parliament. However, ideologically these are diametrically opposite forces. They are related only by aggressive and irreconcilable discourse and, of course, populism. Thus, the success of these parties did not come so much from the ideologies and programs they proposed, but from the fact that in recent years the Polish voter is consciously ready to choose any non-systemic radical alternative protest force, which is expected to be populists, as opposed to the established party establishment.

One of the tasks of applied econometrics and statistics is the estimation of the conditional mean function of the assumed model. The available methods for estimating such a function and the estimation results depend mostly on the a priori assumptions about the population or process that generates the data. The aim of the research presented in this paper is to apply single-index semiparametric econometric model to measure investment risk on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). Such a model is characterised by some assumptions less restrictive than in the case of other parametric models for the conditional mean function, such as a linear model or a binary probit model. At the same time, a single-index model retains many of the desirable features of a linear model and a least squares method. The presented model was used to measure investment risk for 10 IT companies quoted on the WSE in the period from 2018 to 2021. The data came from the Bloomberg financial service. Rates of return of two stock market indices, WIG20 (Poland) and S&P 500 (USA), were adopted as risk factors. The results indicate that the Polish market determines the volatility of returns of the analysed companies to a much larger extent than is the case with the US market. Furthermore, semiparametric models proved more flexible than the parametric ones regarding theoretical assumptions, which in the event of a large inflow of information might facilitate making correct investment decisions.

Between 16 and 20% of perinatal women in low- and middle-income countries experience depression. Addressing postpartum depression (PPD) requires an appreciation of how it manifests and is understood in different cultural settings. This study explores postpartum Mongolian women's perceptions and experiences of PPD. We conducted interviews with 35 postpartum women who screened positive for possible depression to examine: (1) personal experiences of pregnancy/childbirth; (2) perceived causes and symptoms of PPD; and (3) strategies for help/support for women experiencing PPD. Unless extreme, depression was not viewed as a disease but rather as a natural condition following childbirth. Differences between a biomedical model of PPD and local idioms of distress could explain why awareness about PPD was low. The most reported PPD symptom was emotional volatility expressed as anger and endorsement of fear- or anxiety-related screening questions, suggesting that these might be especially relevant in the Mongolian context. Psychosocial factors, as opposed to biological, were common perceived causes of PPD, especially interpersonal relationship problems, financial strain, and social isolation. Possible barriers to PPD recognition/treatment included lack of awareness about the range of symptoms, reluctance to initiate discussions with providers about mental health, and lack of PPD screening practices by healthcare providers. We conclude that educational campaigns should be implemented in prenatal/postnatal clinics and pediatric settings to help women and families identify PPD symptoms, and possibly destigmatize PPD. Healthcare providers can also help to identify women with PPD through communication with women and families.