Suchergebnisse

La presente Tesis Doctoral tiene como finalidad realizar un estudio exploratorio sobre la innovación tecnológica en los servicios de las bibliotecas públicas municipales de Lima (Perú). Asimismo, realizar un diagnóstico y diseñar líneas estratégicas para su desarrollo. Las bibliotecas municipales de Lima, se ubican en la capital del Perú. Estas instituciones tienen un escaso apoyo, lo que ocasiona un desaprovechamiento de su potencial en el acceso al conocimiento, igualmente, tienen un insuficiente desarrollo en el ámbito tecnológico y de gestión, por consiguiente, carece de innovación tecnológica en sus servicios. Por tanto, para alcanzar los objetivos trazados y describir la situación, la investigación está constituida en cinco partes esenciales. En primer lugar, se presenta el estado de cuestión, donde se muestran conceptos y características primordiales que se utiliza para el análisis del objeto de estudio, que son: sociedad del conocimiento, innovación tecnológica, innovación bibliotecaria y el futuro de la biblioteca pública. Dentro de la innovación bibliotecaria, se contemplan tipos de innovaciones, elementos de innovación, áreas de innovación; así también, se muestra las tendencias en el ámbito bibliotecario. En relación con el futuro de la biblioteca pública, se indica los nuevos escenarios y el entorno de cambio al que se enfrenta. En segundo lugar, se describe las áreas de innovación tecnológica en bibliotecas públicas con sus respectivas herramientas, siendo para esta investigación siete categorías, donde se aprecia tanto el concepto, antecedentes, las funciones, sus aplicaciones y prácticas realizadas por bibliotecas públicas alrededor del mundo, estas son las siguientes: Los servicios basados en la Web Social (2.0) y sus herramientas blogs, microbloggings, wikis, sindicación de contenidos – RSS, plataformas de documentos, fotografías y videos, redes sociales, catálogo social, podcasting, geoaplicaciones, mashup, chat, entre otras aplicaciones; los servicios basados en el entorno móvil y sus herramientas, aplicaciones móviles, códigos QR, realidad aumentada, mensajería instantánea móvil, balizas (en inglés, beacons) y tecnología de comunicación de campo cercano (en sus siglas en inglés, NFC); sedes web de bibliotecas, uso y acceso a Internet, servicio de autopréstamo y circulación documental, servicios basados en plataformas para gestión de contenidos y; los servicios basados en nuevas tecnologías y sus herramientas realidad virtual, inteligencia artificial, impresoras tridimensionales, robots, drones y cartelería virtual. En tercer lugar, se describe el entorno de las bibliotecas públicas municipales de Lima, a partir, de las cifras de sociedad del conocimiento del Perú y aspectos, como el proceso histórico, políticas públicas, acceso a las TIC, características del usuario de Internet, la lectura digital y uso de redes sociales. Seguidamente, se expone aspectos legales e históricos de la biblioteca pública municipal en el Perú y características generales de la ciudad de Lima. Para luego, realizar un análisis cuantitativo que aborda datos de cobertura, 21 colección, servicios, personal, infraestructura, equipos tecnológicos y usuarios con datos proporcionados por el Registro nacional de Municipalidades (RENAMU) (2013-2018). Así también, se realiza una medición del desempeño de las bibliotecas públicas municipales de Lima, a través de los "Estándares para bibliotecas públicas municipales" diseñado por la "Biblioteca Nacional del Perú" y un análisis comparativo entre las bibliotecas de Lima y Madrid basado en los indicadores de rendimiento de las "Comunidades Autónomas" y el "Ministerio de Cultura y Deporte" (MECD). En cuarto lugar, se presenta los resultados del estudio sobre innovación tecnológica en Bibliotecas Públicas Municipales de Lima aplicando un cuestionario para la recolección de datos elaborado para este estudio, donde se demuestra el bajo nivel de uso de tecnologías, lo cual ocasiona un insuficiente desarrollo de innovación en las bibliotecas entre 2017-2018. En esta parte, se examina los escasos servicios innovadores que tienen las bibliotecas de la ciudad en las siete categorías propuestas, asimismo, se manifiesta las percepciones de los encargados de estas unidades de información sobre el tema de innovación, como la labor de la biblioteca en el contexto actual y el aprovechamiento de las tecnologías. Además, se expone una serie de buenas prácticas realizadas por las bibliotecas, y se demuestra que a pesar de las limitaciones se pueden realizar diversas actividades para sus comunidades. Por último, en quinto lugar, se presenta un diagnóstico de las bibliotecas públicas municipales de Lima y las líneas estratégicas para iniciar la renovación de estas instituciones. Dentro del diagnóstico prevalecen tres asuntos que son: la escasa visibilidad de las bibliotecas dentro de los gobiernos locales, asimismo, la carencia de tecnologías en los servicios y la escasez de profesionales de la Información dirigiendo estos centros. Por tanto, se muestra una serie de temas fundamentales que son considerados en este diagnóstico, que son: La posición de las bibliotecas de Lima en el Siglo XXI, personal especializado ausente, la tecnología fuera del alcance de las bibliotecas, los usuarios jóvenes, la experiencia de la meta 27 y 06 en la promoción de la lectura, la ausencia de la red de bibliotecas en la ciudad, recursos limitados, bibliotecas escasamente inclusivas, necesidad de un marco legal adecuado, la inclusión de las bibliotecas en la agenda nacional y la cultura de la participación en las bibliotecas. De este diagnóstico, se diseñaron una propuesta de cinco líneas estratégicas con sus respectivos objetivos, acciones e indicadores que son las siguientes: Red de bibliotecas públicas municipales de Lima, personal capacitado e innovador, presencia digital de la biblioteca, diversificación de servicios y espacios, y biblioteca centrado en la comunidad. ; The aim of this doctoral thesis is to realize an exploratory study on the technological innovation of the services in Lima's (Peru) public municipal libraries. Also, purpose a diagnostic is undertaken and strategic lines for its development are designed. The municipal libraries of Lima, are located in the capital of Peru. These institutions have little support, which leads to a waste of their potential with regards to access to knowledge. Also, their development in the technological and administrative field is insufficient, which is the reason for a lack of technological innovation regarding their services. Therefore, to achieve the objectives set and to describe the situation, the investigation consists of five essential parts. In the first place, the state of the art is presented, referencing fundamental concepts that are used for the analysis of the object of study. They encompass: knowledge society, technological innovation, library innovation and the future of the public library. Within library innovation, types of innovations, elements of innovation, and areas of innovation are reflected upon; likewise, current trends in the field of library studies are pointed out. With respect to the future of the public library, new scenarios and the changing environment it faces are indicated. Secondly, areas of technological innovation in public libraries with their respective tools are described, for this research referencing seven categories in which the concept, background, functions, applications and practices carried out by public libraries around the world are recognized. These are the following: the specific services on the Social Web (2.0) and its tools blogs, microblogging, wikis, content syndication – RSS, document platforms, photographs and videos, social networks, social catalogue, podcasting, Geoapplications, mashup, chat, among other applications; the services specified in the mobile environment and its tools, mobile applications, QR codes, augmented reality, mobile instant messaging, beacons and near-field communication technology (NFC); library web sites, use and access to the Internet, automatic loan service and document circulation, controlled services on platforms for content management and; the services identified in new technologies and their tools virtual reality, artificial intelligence, three-dimensional printers, robots, drones and virtual signage. Thirdly, the environment of the Lima public municipal libraries is described, based on Peru's knowledge society indicators and aspects such as the historical process, public policies, access to ICTs, characteristics of the Internet user, digital reading and use of social networks. Next, legal and historical aspects of the municipal public library in Peru and general characteristics of the city of Lima are presented. Then, a quantitative analysis is performed that addresses coverage, collection, services, personnel, infrastructure, technological equipment and user data, relying on data provided by the Registro Nacional 23 de Municipalidades (RENAMU) (2013-2018). Likewise, a measurement of the performance of the municipal public libraries of Lima is carried out, through the "Estándares para bibliotecas públicas municipales" designed by the "Biblioteca Nacional del Perú" as well as a comparative analysis between the libraries of Lima and Madrid based on the performance indicators of the "Comunidades Autónomas" and the "Ministerio de Cultura y Deporte" (MECD). Fourth, the results of the study on technological innovation in Lima's Municipal Public Libraries are presented applying a questionnaire for data collection prepared for this study, which demonstrates the low level of use of technologies, which causes an insufficient development of innovation in libraries between 2017 and 2018. In this part, we examine the few innovative services that the city's libraries exhibit in the seven proposed categories, as well as the perceptions of those persons responsible for these information units on the topic of innovation, such as the work of the library in the current context and the use of technologies. In addition, a series of good practices carried out by libraries is shown, and it is demonstrated that despite the limitations, various activities can be carried out for their communities. Finally, in the fifth place, a diagnosis of the municipal public libraries of Lima and the strategic lines to initiate the renovation of these institutions is presented. Within the diagnosis, three issues prevail: the limited visibility of libraries within local governments, the lack of technology in services and the shortage of information professionals directing these centres. Therefore, a series of fundamental issues can be observed that are specific for this diagnosis, namely: The position of the libraries of Lima in the 21st century, lack of specialized personnel, technology outside the reach of libraries, young users, the experience of goal 27 and 06 in the promotion of reading, the absence of a library network in the city, limited resources, poor performance in terms of inclusiveness, the need for an adequate legal framework, the inclusion of libraries in the national agenda and the culture of participation in libraries. From this diagnosis, a proposal of five strategic lines was designed with the following strategic objectives, actions and indicators: Network of public libraries in Lima, trained and innovative personnel, digital presence of the library, diversification of services and spaces, and community-centered library. ; Programa de Doctorado en Documentación: Archivos y Bibliotecas en el Entorno Digital por la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid ; Presidente: José Antonio Moreiro González.- Secretario: Juan Carlos Marcos Recio.- Vocal: Martín Alonso Estrada Cuzcano

This set of three case studies explores the intersection of openness, digital governance, andhigh quality information in Estonia,1 Finland, and Norway with the aim of identifying lessonsthat will support the same objectives in lower resource countries. Openness, a key aspect ofthe international agenda for increasing transparency and accountability, for reducing public sectorcorruption, and for strengthening economic performance, rests on the principle that citizenshave a right to know what their governments are doing and to benefit from using governmentinformation. Goals for open, accountable, and inclusive governance rest on the assumption thattrustworthy information is available and can be shared meaningfully through strategies for digitalgovernance. This assumption needs to be examined. Does reliable and complete informationexist across lower resource countries? Can it be accessed readily? Will it survive through time?

For the 2014-2020 programming period, the Government of Romania (GoR) is considering a new approach proposed by the European Commission (EC) - Community-Led Local Development (CLLD). CLLD comes with a unique set of challenges. These include making sure that the process is truly inclusive, community-led, transparent, and focused on peer-to-peer learning across communities and other stakeholders. The GoR should carefully weigh potential benefits and risks of applying the CLLD approach and put in place an adequate implementation framework with sufficient risk mitigating measures before pursuing CLLD. The World Bank undertook this advisory activity to help the GoR put in place an implementation framework for CLLD in Romania, should it want to go ahead with this approach. It includes a proposed definition of urban marginalized communities, the population group that the GoR wants to target by CLLD. The definition is based on a review of the Romanian literature on (urban) marginalization and on qualitative research in ten cities. It also includes guidelines for CLLD implementation based on EC guidance, extensive field work, and an assessment of lessons learned of similar programs in Romania and elsewhere. Moreover, detailed maps of urban marginalized areas across Romania are presented. These are based on a set of indicators, for which data are available in the 2011 Population and Housing Census dataset. Six conceptual pilots have been prepared that are based on simulated CLLD processes and can serve as examples for municipalities/NGOs that could be applying for EU funding through the CLLD approach, during the 2014-2020 programming period. This extensive summary brochure presents a synopsis of all findings and messages across the outputs produced under this activity.

Una emergencia es una situación imprevisible que requiere de acciones de respuesta para minimizar posibles daños humanos y materiales. La gestión de emergencias consiste en un conjunto de actividades para la mitigación, preparación, respuesta y recuperación de una situación de emergencia que involucra a agencias gubernamentales, organizaciones no gubernamentales, comunidades de voluntarios, comunidades de práctica, el sector privado y los ciudadanos. Durante las 4 fases de la gestión de emergencias se requiere una comunicación constante entre las personas y organizaciones afectadas e involucradas con el objetivo de coordinar acciones de respuesta, informar de actividades llevadas a cabo, conocer el estado de la situación y dar asistencia a solicitudes de ayuda, entre otras. Las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones (TIC) proporcionan los mecanismos para dar soporte al intercambio, almacenamiento, procesamiento y distribución de la información generada en este contexto. Los medios sociales establecen un canal de comunicación complementario para habilitar una participación activa de los ciudadanos en la gestión de situaciones de emergencia. Uno de los medios sociales más utilizados son las redes sociales, que permiten a los usuarios compartir información de manera textual o multimedia con una red de contactos, así como valorar, responder o compartir un contenido publicado de manera sencilla a través de páginas Web, aplicaciones de escritorio y aplicaciones móviles. En los últimos años, las redes sociales han generado un interés en constante aumento con respecto a su utilización por agencias gubernamentales durante la gestión de situaciones de emergencia, con el objetivo de hacer más eficiente la comunicación e interacción entre los ciudadanos, las comunidades y el personal de las agencias gubernamentales involucradas. Se considera que las redes sociales pueden ser utilizadas como un canal de comunicación bidireccional que permita la publicación y monitorización de información. Sin embargo, se han identificado dificultades y carencias para la utilización eficiente de las redes sociales por agencias gubernamentales en este contexto. Los problemas principales son: (1) escasez de recursos humanos y tecnológicos para llevar a cabo una actividad constante durante todas las fases de la gestión de situaciones de emergencia; (2) una sobrecarga de la información generada, en especial durante las fases de respuesta y recuperación de una situación de emergencia específica; y (3) la desconfianza en la veracidad de la información, debido a contenido falso y rumores que se suelen generar alrededor de una situación de emergencia. Para ayudar a resolver estos problemas principales identificados, se define un conjunto de 16 requerimientos específicos de las agencias gubernamentales para la utilización de las redes sociales en la gestión de situaciones de emergencia. Estos requerimientos están basados en la literatura, en particular en 3 estudios de investigación llevados a cabo con personal de las agencias gubernamentales, y un estudio de la actividad y el comportamiento de las agencias gubernamentales en la red social Twitter durante una situación de emergencia real. En esta tesis doctoral se describe el diseño y desarrollo de una arquitectura tecnológica que tiene como objetivo facilitar la utilización de las redes sociales por agencias gubernamentales como un canal de comunicación bidireccional durante situaciones de emergencia a partir del cumplimiento de los requerimientos identificados. Esta arquitectura está compuesta por un modelo de datos y un lenguaje de procesos para el almacenamiento y procesamiento de la información generada en las redes sociales durante la gestión de situaciones de emergencia. La base de la arquitectura desarrollada es un modelo de datos común e interoperable entre las distintas plataformas de redes sociales. El modelo de datos se define utilizando un diagrama de clases UML que toma en cuenta la estructura general de las redes sociales más comunes utilizadas actualmente y la estructura necesaria para almacenar los datos relacionados con el cumplimiento de los requerimientos de las agencias gubernamentales. Con el objetivo de proporcionar interoperabilidad, se incluye un esquema de datos utilizando el lenguaje estándar XSD que describe las clases, atributos, operaciones y relaciones de los elementos del modelo de datos. El segundo componente principal de la arquitectura es un lenguaje de procesos que permite la incorporación de módulos de procesos que cubren las necesidades de las agencias gubernamentales en este contexto. Los procesos se definen utilizando la notación BPMN (Business Process Modeling Notation) que describe las tareas, eventos, datos, mensajes y contextos involucrados en el cumplimiento de los requerimientos de las agencias gubernamentales. Los procesos incluidos pueden definirse como componentes reutilizables que llevan a cabo una tarea o actividad específica relacionada con el uso de las redes sociales en la gestión de situaciones de emergencia. Para medir el desempeño de la arquitectura desarrollada, se lleva a cabo una evaluación analítica compuesta por 2 estudios complementarios: (1) evaluación del cumplimiento por parte de la arquitectura desarrollada de los requerimientos identificados; y (2) comparativa del cumplimiento de los requerimientos con respecto a un conjunto de herramientas existentes de sindicación y agregación de contenido y la arquitectura. La evaluación demuestra que la arquitectura proporciona los mecanismos tecnológicos para el cumplimiento de los requerimientos identificados que ayudan a resolver los problemas principales de la utilización de las redes sociales por agencias gubernamentales en la gestión de situaciones de emergencia, en comparación con las herramientas generales existentes de sindicación y agregación de contenido. A partir del diseño y desarrollo de la arquitectura tecnológica en esta tesis doctoral, se proporciona una solución que facilita la utilización de las redes sociales por las agencias gubernamentales en la gestión de situaciones de emergencia, a través del cumplimiento de los requerimientos específicos de las agencias gubernamentales que ayudan a resolver los problemas principales de escasez de recursos humanos y tecnológicos, la sobrecarga de la información generada y la desconfianza en la veracidad de la información recibida. ; An emergency is an unexpected situation that requires response actions to minimize possible human and material damage. Emergency management is a set of activities for mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery of an emergency situation that involves governmental agencies, non-governmental agencies, communities of practice and volunteers, the private sector and citizens. During the four phases of emergency management, a constant communication is required between people and organizations affected and involved to coordinate response actions, inform about activities being performed, know the status of the situation and respond to help requests, among others. Information and Communications Technology (ICT) provide mechanisms to support the exchange, storage, processing and distribution of the information generated in this context. Social media provides an additional communication channel to enable active participation from citizens in emergency management. One of the most used social media platforms are social networks that allow users to share information in a textual or multimedia way with a user network, and to assess, respond or share a published content through the use of Web pages, desktop and mobile applications. In recent years, social networks have generated an increasing interest for their use by government agencies for emergency management in order to make more efficient the communication and interaction between citizens, communities and staff of government agencies involved. In general, social networks are considered as bidirectional communication channels that allow the publication and monitorization of information. However, some difficulties and shortcomings have been identified for the efficient use of social media by government agencies in this context. The main problems are: (1) limited human and technological resources to enable a continuous activity in social networks during all phases of emergency management; (2) an overload of information generated, especially during the response and recovery phases of an emergency event; and (3) distrust in the accuracy of the information, due to false content and rumors that usually appear during an emergency situation. In order to help solving these identified problems, a set of 16 specific requirements is defined for the use of social media by government agencies in emergency management. These requirements are based on the literature, particularly in 3 research studies conducted with personnel of government agencies, and a study of the activity and behavior of governmental agencies in Twitter during a real emergency event. In this thesis is presented the design and development of a technological architecture that aims to facilitate the use of social media by government agencies as a bidirectional communication channel during emergencies based on the fulfillment of the requirements identified. This architecture consists of a data model and a process language for the storage and process of information generated in social networks during emergency management. usually appear during an emergency situation. In order to help solving these identified problems, a set of 16 specific requirements is defined for the use of social media by government agencies in emergency management. These requirements are based on the literature, particularly in 3 research studies conducted with personnel of government agencies, and a study of the activity and behavior of governmental agencies in Twitter during a real emergency event. In this thesis is presented the design and development of a technological architecture that aims to facilitate the use of social media by government agencies as a bidirectional communication channel during emergencies based on the fulfillment of the requirements identified. This architecture consists of a data model and a process language for the storage and process of information generated in social networks during emergency management. viii The basis of the architecture developed is a data model interoperable between the various social networking platforms. The data model is defined using a UML class diagram that considers the overall structure of the most common social networks currently used and the structure needed to store information related to the fulfillment of the requirements of government agencies. In order to provide interoperability, a database schema is created using the XSD standard language for describing the classes, attributes, operations and relationships of all the elements in the data model. The second component of the architecture is a process language that allows the incorporation of process modules that meet the needs of government agencies in this context. The process language is defined using the BPMN notation (Business Process Modeling Notation) and describe the tasks, events, data, messages and contexts involved in meeting the requirements of government agencies. The processes included are defined as reusable components that perform a specific task or activity related to the use of social media in emergency management. To assess the performance of the architecture, an analytical evaluation is carried out that consists of two complementary studies: (1) an assessment of the fulfillment by the architecture of the requirements identified; and (2) a comparative between a set of existing syndication and aggregation tools and the architecture with respect to the fulfillment of the requirements identified. The evaluation demonstrates that the architecture provides the technological mechanisms to fulfill the identified requirements in order to help solving the main problems of the use of social media by government agencies in emergency management, in comparison to existing syndication and aggregation tools. The technological architecture designed and developed in this doctoral thesis provides a solution that facilitates the use of social media by government agencies during emergency management through the fulfillment of specific requirements identified in this context that help solving the main problems of limited human and technological resources, information overload and distrust in the information received. ; Programa Oficial de Doctorado en Ciencia y Tecnología Informática ; Presidente: Jesús Hilario Canós Cerdá.- Secretario: Telmo Agustín Zarraonandía Ayo.- Vocal: Víctor Amadeo Bañuls Silvera

Kenya's textile and apparel sector has the potential to play a key role in anchoring the country's deeper movement into middle income status and in serving as a source of gainful employment for its fast growing, young population. As a manufactured good, it offers opportunities for increased value capture and streamlined trade logistics and for the building of skills and experience from the factory floor to management level. Based on these foundations, it therefore serves as a potential gateway to other manufactured goods, offering opportunities for Kenya to capture an increasing share of global trade and to advance economic diversification. The report is structured as follows: chapter two describes global and regional market trends in textile and apparel. Chapter three reviews the evolution, growth, and performance of the apparel sector in Kenya and then analyzes the sector in terms of markets, products, and stakeholders. Chapter four focuses on Kenya's performance in terms of relevant macro indicators and highlights the critical constraints faced by apparel manufacturers and exporters in Kenya. Chapter five concludes with recommendations. Where possible, chapters end with a summary of key points and conclusions.

This study is part of the ongoing dialogue on reforming trade logistics, and facilitating trade and transportation in Central and South Asian countries. It presents key findings from several rounds of first-hand observations and interviews conducted with multiple stakeholders to measure the performance of key road transport corridors across the region, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and to some extent, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The study identifies obstacles that hinder efficient movement of goods along transport corridors, and offers recommendations for short- and medium-term reforms for participating country governments with particular emphasis on the performance of border crossings. The overall objective of this study is to provide basic information on transport corridor performance so that national policy makers and private sectors have a basis to open discussions on how they might cooperate to facilitate international trade and transport by addressing infrastructure and operational bottlenecks in the region.

One of the problems in discussing one-stop shops is that everyone seems to have a different idea of what one is. There have been one-stop shops since at least the 1920s, mostly in the retail trade, epitomized by the development of supermarkets and, in recent years, internet sales outlets. This book is about one particular type of service, namely, business registration, and the various one-stop shops that exist now and might exist in the future. If there is confusion about what constitutes a one-stop shop, there are also a variety of views about business registration. In some countries all businesses have to be registered, in others, only those companies with a legal existence separate from their owners. In some countries, registration is the responsibility of the courts; in others, it is an administrative function handled by a government ministry, semi-autonomous agency, or chamber of commerce. Registration may be a function of a central institution or may be affected at a local level. In all these areas, there is change when it comes to implementing a one-stop shop. It is hardly surprising therefore that there are many different views about what constitutes, or should constitute, a one-stop shop.

Chile is increasingly looking to innovation as a pillar of its competitiveness and an engine of growth to close the income gap with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) economies. The country has doubled its per capita income since the 1990s. The growth slowdown in the late 1990s and early 2000s, however, raised concerns about that the old sources of growth. While the rate of growth has picked up again, spurred by a favorable external environment, there is an increased awareness of the importance of innovation to growth and a desire to move toward a more diversified and knowledge-based economy, following the example of other successful resource-rich economies such as Australia and Finland. Higher government commitments to innovation have raised new challenges. The remaining of the report is structured as follows. Chapter two discusses the importance of innovation to Chile's economy and highlights the need to define innovation policy within a comprehensive framework that encompasses the entire production system. Chapter three organizes thinking around some basic governance principles for innovation systems drawing form the public governance literature, the broader innovation literature, and international experiences. Chapter four applies those principles to Chile's public institutions and agents that will be responsible for defining and implementing innovation policies. Chapter five examines the rationale and guiding principles of regional innovation policies and offers recommendations for Chile's regional innovation systems and their governance framework. Chapter six summarizes the main conclusions.

University and industry (U-I) are the main sources of knowledge and innovation which are increasingly becoming the main pillar of competitiveness at micro and macro level. Despite potential synergies and benefits for the involved agentes, economies and society, communication between university and industry in the scope of innovation remains limited for decades. While a number of tools exists to stimulate U-I communication for innovation and the recognition for the need to ensure crossfertilising academic and industrial resources is increasing, currently implemented strategies rarely translate into long-term U-I engagement into co-innovation. Literature recognises i/organisational barriers, ii/ lack of adjustments of the strategies to stakeholders needs and local socio-economic conditions, and iii/ lack of tolls and strategic measures modernisation among the main reasons for poor results of the support strategies (Al-Agtash & Al-Fahoum, 2008, Vries et al., 2019). Therefore, better understanding how to address those challenges is needed. As a reaction to the current state, our study is centred on the main research question – How to build effective strategies for U-I communication for innovation? To contribute to the solution, we are looking at specific tools and measures with potential to enable effective U-I communication for innovation across the barriers and the tools applicability. We approach the issue by means of systematic literature review, multiple regression and structural equation modelling. Within initial systematic review we map the existing knowledge to define which tools could be applied to bridge the main identified U-I communication barriers, such as differences in pourpose, standards and procedures or culture or language gaps. That process allowed us to from one side define which tools can be used to bridge each of the identified gaps and from the other side reviled a broad number of gaps in the current body of knowledge that do not allow decision makers design effective knowledge based strategies. In our empirical studies we address a limited number of the identified gaps, specifically: i/ lack of clear empirical evidence regarding different impact of policy measures within different economic contexts; ii/ lack of modern studies on information and communication technology (ICT) influence on U-I communication, iii/highly limited amount of quantitative and comparative studies in the scope of U-I communication, iv/ lack of studies regarding international scope of U-I communication for innovation. In the first place, in chapter 3 we analyse how applicability of macro-level tools may differ in countries at different development levels and whether the impact of U-I communication on economic development differs. Furtherly, in chapters 4 and 5 we analyse applicability of computer mediated communication (CMC) in the scope of cross-organisational communication with engagement of university and industry. We specifically look at the potential of a groupware system to build social capital (that was previously shown to have the ability to bridge U-I communication barriers) and how specific functions can support usefulness of such a tool to enable effective U-I communication for innovation. Our main findings show empirically that the level of U-I communication is insufficient to significantly stimulate economic development. Countries at all development levels struggle to reach a critical mass of effective U-I communication for innovation and need to adjust their strategies to support U-I communication. Supporting increase in quality of research institutions and private R&D invetments is relevant at all development levels, while staff training related with absorptive capacity is relevant at lower development levels. However, our results suggest that, creating effective strategy for fostering U-I communication requires its adjustment to economic environment as the governmental mechanism can result in both, positive and negative influence on U-I communication. Meanwhile, on cross-organisational level, such a communication and its sustainability may be supported by providing effective means for computer mediated communication at the interface between organisations. To generate such a result, information and communication technology needs to provide social usefulness and mechanisms for building social capital. Functionalities enhancing participatory character and transparency of cross-organisational communication and providing interactivity within computer mediated communication shown enabling character for overcoming cross-organisational barriers. ; Em 1987, num estudo da comunicação dentro do sistema sueco de inovação Höglund e Persson (1987), baseando-se no estudo da literatura dos últimos 15 anos, mostraram que a comunicação entre a indústria e a universidade (U-I) no âmbito da inovação é extremamente limitada. O nosso estudo dos 32 anos seguintes sobre área sugere claramente que, apesar do crescente do reconhecimento dos potenciais benefícios da comunicação U-I na inovação e das tentativas dos agentes governamentais e sociais para incentivar o envolvimento mútuo das universidades e da indústria na investigação e inovação, o progresso alcançado não foi significativo. Höglund e Persson (1987), embora reconhecessem a falta de conhecimento sobre a génese do problema, especularam que as possíveis razões para tal estado se encontrariam na relevância limitada da investigação básica com aplicações práticas e na generalizada falta de contacto entre diferentes agentes do sistema de I&D. Desde então, a literatura estudou a questão em detalhe, mostrando que, por um lado, o problema está nas barreiras organizacionais da comunicação U-I (Gera, 2012; Vries et al., 2018) e, por outro, na falta de ferramentas e sistemas adequados para que a comunicação U-I para a inovação ocorra de forma natural e não mediada (Bayne et al., 2016; Suomi et al., 2019). A literatura destaca especialmente que a comunicação U-I é fortemente obstruída por diferenças de objectivos, culturais e linguísticas, lacunas de incentivos ou diferenças de procedimentos e padrões de qualidade (Plewa et al., 2013a; D'Hooghe 2017; Vries et al., 2019). Enquanto isso, postula-se que uma comunicação eficaz na inovação traz benefícios significativos não apenas para os agentes envolvidos, mas também para a economia e para a sociedade (Martins, 2016; Suomi et al., 2019). A importância da comunicação entre universidade e indústria está a aumentar especialmente devido à mudança do mercado global em direção à concorrência baseada no conhecimento e à crescente importância de tecnologias inteligentes e inovação que, devido à sua complexidade, exigem o envolvimento de uma ampla gama de conhecimentos multidisciplinares. Neste ambiente económico, a falta de envolvimento de diferentes agentes com experiência em inovação e em múltiplas disciplinas exclui as economias de competir eficazmente nos principais sectores, gera custos através de oportunidades perdidas e duplicação de esforços, pode levar a uma maior marginalização das regiões menos desenvolvidas (MacLead et al., 1997 ; Sheen & MacBryde, 1995; Hotaling et al., 2012; Kopczynska & Ferreira, 2018). Enquanto isso, a falta de comunicação U-I eficiente no âmbito da inovação tem sido relatada não apenas em regiões menos desenvolvidas na área da inovação (Hassen, 2018), mas também entre os líderes em inovação (Suomi et al., 2019; Kim & Jang, 2019). Apesar da popularização recente de conceitos como universidade empreendedora e modelo de hélice tripla ou quádrupla, apesar dos investimentos governamentais significativos em estratégias que incentivam a comunicação U-I ou aumentam o reconhecimento da terceira missão da universidade, o problema da comunicação U-I insuficiente continua a ser um problema global. Embora atualmente o conhecimento sobre as barreiras da comunicação U-I seja extenso, falta entender como usar efetivamente ferramentas e estratégias para as superar (Kim & Jang, 2019). A literatura mostra especialmente que, enquanto países de todo o mundo investem em medidas para apoiar a comunicação e a colaboração U-I (Cooke, 2002; Peng et al., 2017), os seus esforços geralmente levam a resultados altamente limitados e insustentáveis (Lissoni, 2010; Suomi et al., 2019; Kim & Jang, 2019). Isto sugere que a compreensão atual das complexidades relacionadas com as estratégias para promover a comunicação U-I para inovação é limitada e a sua melhoria poderia contribuir para melhores estratégias de suporte e melhor capitalização dos recursos de conhecimento. A literatura enfatiza especialmente que as questões estão relacionadas com i/ a tendência de transferir ingenuamente práticas bem-sucedidas entre países, com diferentes contextos económico e culturais, sem a devida compreensão e / ou adaptação (Macleod et al., 1997; Salem & Amjed, 2008; Sandberg et al. al., 2015; Kim & Jang, 2019), ii / falta de modernização das medidas aplicadas aos desafios e oportunidades atuais (Paslowski et al., 2015; Kim & Jang, 2019), iii / foco na transferência unidirecional de conhecimento, em vez de na comunicação baseada em ciclos de feedback e dialogo para inovação (Kodama, 2002; Peng et al., 2017; Hayden et al., 2018). Nesse âmbito, o nosso estudo tem como objetivo contribuir para a discussão e a resolução de problemas, analisando, em primeiro lugar, a literatura académica para integrar o corpo de conhecimentos existente a uma abordagem mais holística, procurando entender 1 / como as ferramentas e mecanismos específicos podem contribuir para superar as barreiras existentes entre a comunicação U-I e quais são as aplicações, os fatores de transferência e as condições; e 2 / identificar lacunas e deficiências no corpo de conhecimento que devem ser abordadas para permitir que quem deve tomar decisões e partes interessadas envolvidas gerem estratégias eficazes para maximizar a comunicação U-I para inovação. Além disso, a literatura geralmente sugere que a resolução requer estratégias modernas e a vários níveis, permitindo que a comunicação U-I ao nível macro - o nível relacionado ao sistema de políticas e inovação (Lee & Yoo, 2007; Ranga et al., 2008; D'Hooghe 2017; Hassen, 2018), e micro – o nível organizacional e de ferramentas relacionadas (Ranga et al ., 2008; Korzhenevskaya, 2014; Howarth & Monasterolo, 2016; Martins, 2016). Assim, seguimos com estudos empíricos de estratégias de nível macro e ferramentas facilitadoras de nível micro que permitem a comunicação U-I. Especificamente, abordamos a questão da necessidade postulada pela literatura de ajustes de estratégias aplicadas às condições socioeconómicas de regiões e nações (Vick & Nagano, 2018; Kim & Jang, 2019), analisando se as diferenças no impacto da comunicação U-I no desenvolvimento económico difere entre países a diferentes níveis de desenvolvimento, e se o potencial de intervenções específicas para estimular a comunicação U-I difere entre países dependendo com o seu desenvolvimento. Por outro lado, abordamos a necessidade de modernização das abordagens atuais, não apenas analisando mais estratégias, mas estratégias direcionadas, também analisando empiricamente o potencial e as condições do uso de soluções de grupos de trabalho (groupware) na comunicação entre organizações para não servir apenas como canal eficaz de comunicação, mas como ferramenta de facilitação para superar as barreiras organizacionais existentes. Reconhecendo a necessidade da inovação aberta para o modelo bidirecional e não linear de interação da U-I (Butcher & Jeffrey, 2005; Lauder & Atkinson-Grosjean 2011), a tese geral visa contribuir para estratégias de envolvimento dialógico da U-I no âmbito da inovação. A literatura atual concentra-se no problema da questão da comunicação da UI para inovação na fase de envolvimento até o primeiro projeto ser concluído (Plewa et al., 2013a). Enquanto isso, a inovação é um processo complexo que resulta de interações não lineares, processos de aprendizagem e colisões entre diferentes ideias, agentes, visões ou sistemas (Leydesdorff & Etzkowitz, 1998; Fields, 2006; Tidd & Bessant, 2014). Precisa, por um lado, de integrar os produtores de conhecimento e inovação e os proprietários de produtos - indústria e/ou universidade; com agentes responsáveis pelo ambiente e suporte à inovação - agentes de políticas, intermediários e cadeia de suplementos. Por outro lado, precisa de um fluxo constante e não linear de comunicação e interações para alimentar o mecanismo de inovação, considerando que a inovação geralmente acontece como resultado de interações inesperadas (Tidd & Bessant, 2014). Conforme apresentado por Levallois et al. (2019) o caso da criação de um novo campo de pesquisa de programas de neuromarketing, os benefícios postulados das interações U-I aumentam não apenas na comunicação U-I estruturada. Também a comunicação pura do progresso ou feedback básico pode estimular o desenvolvimento nas áreas de pesquisa e inovação. Por outro lado, a comunicação estruturada não pode ocorrer sem sistemas eficazes para estabelecer contactos iniciais e fornecer informações claras sobre os recursos potencialmente disponíveis entre parceiros (Ranga et al., 2008; Venditti et al., 2013). A comunicação tem forte inter-relação com a inovação, influenciando-a em todas as etapas. Desde colisões, convergência e divergência de ideias (Pendergast & Hayne, 1999; Shinn, 2005) até a fase de envolvimento contínuo, resultando em comunicação U-I sustentável para a inovação (Plewa et al., 2013a; Plewa et al., 2013b). Tal demonstra ser de importância crítica para qualquer forma ou estágio de interações inter-organizacionais. O que está a mudar é apenas a forma, formalidade e tópicos trocados (Plewa et al., 2013b). [.]

Evidence from progressive deterioration of the urban building stock is well known. This brings about a large social and economic impact due to maintenance costs and associated personal hazards. This thesis explores ways to tackle these phenomena by means of predictive methodologies from a big urban areas point of view. To this end, we propose a predictive system about the deterioration of urban building areas. In this thesis we contribute to the existing theories of durability and life cycle analysis by introducing survival analysis prediction techniques in the durability analysis of the urban building stock. The dissertation is divided into three parts. In Part I, we present a literature review regarding the theoretical and legislative framework. After that, we address the following issues: a) classification of the observed phenomena, b) architectonical typologies emerging from the study, c) their location in the urban network, d) their relationship with climatological phenomena and pollution and finally, e) identification of the causes of deterioration and related structural damages, creating a classification according to its extent and its severity. Part II covers the methodology of inspections, the statistical analysis and the implementation of a SIG application. The template file for façade inspections has been revised by experts and it has been optimized by using multicriteria methods. We study as well the reliability of the inspection teams. In Chapter 5 we describe the survival analysis techniques employed in the nonparametric modeling for interval-censored data. The Turnbull estimator has been used as an alternative to parametric analysis due to the structure of the information available. This is a novel approach compared to the state of the art in prediction modeling. The inspection methodology and survival analysis have been integrated in a SIG management framework. The statistical application in QGIS allows for an exploration of the urban building stock analyzing the landscape, the morphology and the damages using the R libraries. The plugin, programmed in Python, is a relevant contribution as a tool for decision-making, as it allows making inferences about the deterioration process of the building stock. Then we apply the proposed prediction methodology to the analysis of a case study. The city that has been chosen for the study is L¿Hospitalet de Llobregat. In part III we describe the inspections conducted in order to select the neighborhoods that allow for maximum data coverage. The research has avoided parametric assumptions and it has been focused on the topics that are more interesting from the point of view of the data collected in terms of orientation, territorial impact, percentage of damages in the representative parts of the façade and percentages of different types of damages. These descriptive statistics of the sample guide the sample selection in the following stages of the survival analysis study. Specifically, we propose and describe non-parametric techniques for the determination of the significant variables in the process of façade deterioration. Results from the case study show how to draw relevant information in order to conduct an effective prevention management. We conclude showing the validity of the predictive system for the prevention of the building stock deterioration. The final chapter also suggests advice for the improvement of inspections, such as ICT and inspector¿s training, and for incorporating dynamic data about the landscape exploiting the QGIS tool and the statistical analysis of the FAD plugin. The PhD candidate postulates that such initiatives require a supporting infrastructure from institutions and he advocates the creation of a commission to implement predictive systems that improve the management of the urban building stock. ; És contrastable l'evidència de l'envelliment progressiu del parc edificat de les ciutats, al costat del fort impacte social i repercussió econòmica en termes de manteniment que aquest representa, així com el risc per a les persones que porta associat. En aquest context, la Tesi Doctoral explora vies per intercedir davant aquests fenòmens mitjançant metodologies predictives que abordin la problemàtica sota una perspectiva de grans àrees urbanes. Per aconseguir aquest objectiu, la recerca proposa un sistema predictiu a multiescala de la degradació dels fronts urbans edificats de la ciutat. La Tesi Doctoral planteja incorporar a les teories existents de durabilitat, cicle de vida i anàlisi del cicle de vida una aportació innovadora fonamentada en la introducció de tècniques d'anàlisi de supervivència predictives, al llarg del temps, en els estudis de durabilitat a les façanes del front urbà. La recerca, per tal d'abastar tota la problemàtica, s'ha estructurat en tres parts en què es contribueix de manera específica i directa a la investigació principal. A la Part I, Introducció al marc teòric i al laboratori urbà, s'exposen les conclusions a les que ens ha portat la revisió de la bibliografia científica i de la legislació existent, sobre els temes que han suscitat interès per al progrés de la investigació. Un cop presentat el Laboratori Urbà, es justifica i defineix com estructurar els elements objecte d'observació, quines tipologies arquitectòniques resulten de l'estudi, com se situen dins d'una trama urbana, quines relacions s'estableixen amb els fenòmens climàtics i de contaminació mediambientals, quins són els principals agents de degradació i a quin tipus de lesions corresponen, incloent una escala de representació i de gravetat. Amb això definim l'element unitari d'estudi amb les seves característiques morfològiques, d'entorn i d'afectació deixant introduïts els elements bàsics per a la realització d'estudis de seguiment de grans àrees urbanes. La metodologia d'inspecció, les tècniques d'anàlisi estadística i la implementació d'un aplicatiu en SIG s'investiguen i proposen a la Part II de la Tesi. Pel que fa al model de fitxes per a realitzar les inspeccions de façanes, el document proposat ha estat revisat per experts i optimitzat via mètodes comparatius multicriteri. També s'ha estudiat la fiabilitat dels equips d'inspecció que ha conduït a propostes concretes d'actuació, així com a futures línies d'investigació. Al Capítol 5 es descriuen les tècniques emprades dins el model d'anàlisi estadística de supervivència aplicant models no paramètrics per a dades amb censura en un interval. S'introdueix l'estimador de Turnbull per a aquest tipus d'anàlisi, com a alternativa a les anàlisis paramètriques. La raó del model respon al tipus d'informació disponible i que aquesta sempre es troba censurada en un rang temporal molt ampli. Les tècniques presentades són fonamentals pel que representen un canvi de paradigma en les estratègies de modelització preventiva La metodologia d'inspecció i d'anàlisi de supervivència que es proposen s'han integrat en un entorn de gestió SIG. Per això s'ha implementat un aplicatiu estadístic en QGIS que permet l'exploració territorial, morfològica i de lesions del front urbà i el modelatge dels temps fins a la lesió fent ús de llibreries de R. L'aplicatiu s'ha elaborat en col·laboració amb el Dr. Jacek Rapinski de l'Institut de Geodèsia de la Facultat de Geodèsia i Enginyeria de la Universitat de Warmia and Mazury a Olsztyn (Polònia), el Laboratori d'Edificació i l'IEMAE de l'EPSEB, i ha estat programat en llenguatge Python. Aquesta integració representa una rellevant aportació com a eina de suport a la presa de decisions sobre el parc edificat, quant al coneixement que s'infereix sobre el procés de deteriorament dels fronts urbans. Amb la metodologia del sistema predictiu disponible s'ha procedit a l'exploració i obtenció de resultats sobre un cas d'estudi. La ciutat escollida ha estat la de L'Hospitalet de Llobregat. A la Part III es descriuen les diferents campanyes d'inspecció que s'han realitzat per tal de millorar la informació disponible i quins barris han estat seleccionats. La investigació ha relaxat hipòtesis prèvies de manera que ha permès que siguin les dades que marquin els focus d'interès més significatius arran de consultar el mòdul d'anàlisi que permet mostrar orientacions, impactes territorials, percentatges d'afectació sobre les parts més representatives de la façana i percentatges basats en els tipus de lesió. Aquests resultats descriptius de l'estat general de la mostra estudiada, són la base de la selecció per a les anàlisis de supervivència i modelització posteriors. En particular, també es proposen i il·lustren tècniques de modelització no paramètriques per determinar quines variables intervenen de forma significativa en el procés d'aparició de les lesions sobre les façanes. Els resultats parcials del cas d'estudi demostren com es pot disposar d'informació rellevant per a una gestió preventiva eficaç. Les conclusions de la Tesi Doctoral reafirmen la validesa del sistema predictiu plantejat i que es postula com un model eficaç per a la prevenció en la degradació dels fronts urbans. El capítol final també incorpora aspectes de millora de les inspeccions com els mitjans TIC i la formació dels inspectors, i al seu torn apunta propostes per a incorporar dades dinàmiques sobre el territori aprofitant el potencial de QGIS i dotar de més anàlisi estadística a l'aplicatiu FAD. El doctorand argumenta que aquest tipus d'iniciatives requereixen un suport de les institucions encarregades de vetllar per la sostenibilitat del que s'ha construït i proposa la creació de comissions per a la implantació futura de sistemes predictius que millorin i optimitzin la gestió del parc urbà. ; Es contrastable la evidencia del envejecimiento progresivo del parque edificado de las ciudades, junto al fuerte impacto social y repercusión económica en términos de mantenimiento que éste representa, así como el riesgo para las personas que lleva asociado. En este contexto, la Tesis Doctoral explora vías para interceder ante estos fenómenos mediante metodologías predictivas que abordan la problemática bajo una perspectiva de grandes áreas urbanas. Para conseguir este objetivo la investigación propone un sistema predictivo a multiescala de la degradación de los frentes urbanos edificados de la ciudad. La Tesis Doctoral plantea incorporar a las teorías existentes de durabilidad, ciclo de vida y análisis del ciclo de vida una aportación innovadora fundamentada en la introducción de técnicas de análisis de supervivencia predictivas. Para ello la investigación se ha estructurado en tres partes que contribuien al objetivo principal. En la Parte I, Introducción al marco teórico y al laboratorio urbano, se exponen las conclusiones a las que nos ha llevado la revisión de la bibliografía científica y de la legislación existente. Una vez presentado el Laboratorio Urbano, se justifica y define cómo estructurar los elementos objeto de observación, qué tipologías arquitectónicas resultan, la sitúan dentro de la trama urbana, qué relaciones se establecen con los fenómenos medioambientales, principales agentes de degradación y a qué tipo de lesiones corresponden. La metodología de inspección, las técnicas de análisis estadístico y la implementación de un aplicativo en SIG se investigan y proponen en la Parte II. En cuanto al modelo de fichas para realizar las inspecciones de fachadas, el documento propuesto ha sido revisado por expertos, optimizado vía métodos comparativos multicriterio, y estudiado la fiabilidad de los equipos de inspección. En el Capítulo 5 se describen las técnicas empleadas dentro del modelo de análisis estadístico de supervivencia aplicando modelos no paramétricos para datos con censura en un intervalo. Se introduce el estimador de Turnbull para este tipo de análisis, como alternativa a los análisis paramétricos. Las técnicas presentadas son fundamentales en cuanto representan un cambio de paradigma en las estrategias de modelización preventiva. La metodología de inspección y de análisis de supervivencia propuestos se ha integrado en un entorno de gestión SIG. Por ello se ha implementado un aplicativo estadístico en QGIS que permite la exploración territorial, morfológica y de lesiones del frente urbano y el modelado de los tiempos hasta la lesión haciendo uso de librerías de R. El aplicativo ha sido programado en lenguaje Python y representa una relevante aportación como herramienta de soporte a la toma de decisiones sobre el parque edificado, en cuanto al conocimiento que infiere sobre el proceso de deterioro de los frentes urbanos. Con la metodología del sistema predictivo disponible se procede a la exploración y obtención de resultados sobre un caso de estudio. La ciudad escogida ha sido la de L'Hospitalet de Llobregat. En la Parte III se hallan descritas las distintas campañas de inspección. La investigación ha relajado hipótesis previas de manera que ha permitido que sean los datos quienes marquen los focos de interés más significativos. También se proponen e ilustran técnicas de modelización no paramétricas para determinar qué variables intervienen en el proceso de aparición de las lesiones sobre las fachadas. Las conclusiones de la Tesis Doctoral reafirman la validez del sistema predictivo planteado y que se postula como un modelo eficaz para la prevención en la degradación de los frentes urbanos. El capítulo final incorpora aspectos de mejora de las inspecciones y la formación de los inspectores, y apunta propuestas para incorporar datos dinámicos sobre el territorio y dotar de mayor análisis estadístico al aplicativo FAD. ; Postprint (published version)

Evidence from progressive deterioration of the urban building stock is well known. This brings about a large social and economic impact due to maintenance costs and associated personal hazards. This thesis explores ways to tackle these phenomena by means of predictive methodologies from a big urban areas point of view. To this end, we propose a predictive system about the deterioration of urban building areas. In this thesis we contribute to the existing theories of durability and life cycle analysis by introducing survival analysis prediction techniques in the durability analysis of the urban building stock. The dissertation is divided into three parts. In Part I, we present a literature review regarding the theoretical and legislative framework. After that, we address the following issues: a) classification of the observed phenomena, b) architectonical typologies emerging from the study, c) their location in the urban network, d) their relationship with climatological phenomena and pollution and finally, e) identification of the causes of deterioration and related structural damages, creating a classification according to its extent and its severity. Part II covers the methodology of inspections, the statistical analysis and the implementation of a SIG application. The template file for façade inspections has been revised by experts and it has been optimized by using multicriteria methods. We study as well the reliability of the inspection teams. In Chapter 5 we describe the survival analysis techniques employed in the nonparametric modeling for interval-censored data. The Turnbull estimator has been used as an alternative to parametric analysis due to the structure of the information available. This is a novel approach compared to the state of the art in prediction modeling. The inspection methodology and survival analysis have been integrated in a SIG management framework. The statistical application in QGIS allows for an exploration of the urban building stock analyzing the landscape, the morphology and the damages using the R libraries. The plugin, programmed in Python, is a relevant contribution as a tool for decision-making, as it allows making inferences about the deterioration process of the building stock. Then we apply the proposed prediction methodology to the analysis of a case study. The city that has been chosen for the study is L¿Hospitalet de Llobregat. In part III we describe the inspections conducted in order to select the neighborhoods that allow for maximum data coverage. The research has avoided parametric assumptions and it has been focused on the topics that are more interesting from the point of view of the data collected in terms of orientation, territorial impact, percentage of damages in the representative parts of the façade and percentages of different types of damages. These descriptive statistics of the sample guide the sample selection in the following stages of the survival analysis study. Specifically, we propose and describe non-parametric techniques for the determination of the significant variables in the process of façade deterioration. Results from the case study show how to draw relevant information in order to conduct an effective prevention management. We conclude showing the validity of the predictive system for the prevention of the building stock deterioration. The final chapter also suggests advice for the improvement of inspections, such as ICT and inspector¿s training, and for incorporating dynamic data about the landscape exploiting the QGIS tool and the statistical analysis of the FAD plugin. The PhD candidate postulates that such initiatives require a supporting infrastructure from institutions and he advocates the creation of a commission to implement predictive systems that improve the management of the urban building stock. ; És contrastable l'evidència de l'envelliment progressiu del parc edificat de les ciutats, al costat del fort impacte social i repercussió econòmica en termes de manteniment que aquest representa, així com el risc per a les persones que porta associat. En aquest context, la Tesi Doctoral explora vies per intercedir davant aquests fenòmens mitjançant metodologies predictives que abordin la problemàtica sota una perspectiva de grans àrees urbanes. Per aconseguir aquest objectiu, la recerca proposa un sistema predictiu a multiescala de la degradació dels fronts urbans edificats de la ciutat. La Tesi Doctoral planteja incorporar a les teories existents de durabilitat, cicle de vida i anàlisi del cicle de vida una aportació innovadora fonamentada en la introducció de tècniques d'anàlisi de supervivència predictives, al llarg del temps, en els estudis de durabilitat a les façanes del front urbà. La recerca, per tal d'abastar tota la problemàtica, s'ha estructurat en tres parts en què es contribueix de manera específica i directa a la investigació principal. A la Part I, Introducció al marc teòric i al laboratori urbà, s'exposen les conclusions a les que ens ha portat la revisió de la bibliografia científica i de la legislació existent, sobre els temes que han suscitat interès per al progrés de la investigació. Un cop presentat el Laboratori Urbà, es justifica i defineix com estructurar els elements objecte d'observació, quines tipologies arquitectòniques resulten de l'estudi, com se situen dins d'una trama urbana, quines relacions s'estableixen amb els fenòmens climàtics i de contaminació mediambientals, quins són els principals agents de degradació i a quin tipus de lesions corresponen, incloent una escala de representació i de gravetat. Amb això definim l'element unitari d'estudi amb les seves característiques morfològiques, d'entorn i d'afectació deixant introduïts els elements bàsics per a la realització d'estudis de seguiment de grans àrees urbanes. La metodologia d'inspecció, les tècniques d'anàlisi estadística i la implementació d'un aplicatiu en SIG s'investiguen i proposen a la Part II de la Tesi. Pel que fa al model de fitxes per a realitzar les inspeccions de façanes, el document proposat ha estat revisat per experts i optimitzat via mètodes comparatius multicriteri. També s'ha estudiat la fiabilitat dels equips d'inspecció que ha conduït a propostes concretes d'actuació, així com a futures línies d'investigació. Al Capítol 5 es descriuen les tècniques emprades dins el model d'anàlisi estadística de supervivència aplicant models no paramètrics per a dades amb censura en un interval. S'introdueix l'estimador de Turnbull per a aquest tipus d'anàlisi, com a alternativa a les anàlisis paramètriques. La raó del model respon al tipus d'informació disponible i que aquesta sempre es troba censurada en un rang temporal molt ampli. Les tècniques presentades són fonamentals pel que representen un canvi de paradigma en les estratègies de modelització preventiva La metodologia d'inspecció i d'anàlisi de supervivència que es proposen s'han integrat en un entorn de gestió SIG. Per això s'ha implementat un aplicatiu estadístic en QGIS que permet l'exploració territorial, morfològica i de lesions del front urbà i el modelatge dels temps fins a la lesió fent ús de llibreries de R. L'aplicatiu s'ha elaborat en col·laboració amb el Dr. Jacek Rapinski de l'Institut de Geodèsia de la Facultat de Geodèsia i Enginyeria de la Universitat de Warmia and Mazury a Olsztyn (Polònia), el Laboratori d'Edificació i l'IEMAE de l'EPSEB, i ha estat programat en llenguatge Python. Aquesta integració representa una rellevant aportació com a eina de suport a la presa de decisions sobre el parc edificat, quant al coneixement que s'infereix sobre el procés de deteriorament dels fronts urbans. Amb la metodologia del sistema predictiu disponible s'ha procedit a l'exploració i obtenció de resultats sobre un cas d'estudi. La ciutat escollida ha estat la de L'Hospitalet de Llobregat. A la Part III es descriuen les diferents campanyes d'inspecció que s'han realitzat per tal de millorar la informació disponible i quins barris han estat seleccionats. La investigació ha relaxat hipòtesis prèvies de manera que ha permès que siguin les dades que marquin els focus d'interès més significatius arran de consultar el mòdul d'anàlisi que permet mostrar orientacions, impactes territorials, percentatges d'afectació sobre les parts més representatives de la façana i percentatges basats en els tipus de lesió. Aquests resultats descriptius de l'estat general de la mostra estudiada, són la base de la selecció per a les anàlisis de supervivència i modelització posteriors. En particular, també es proposen i il·lustren tècniques de modelització no paramètriques per determinar quines variables intervenen de forma significativa en el procés d'aparició de les lesions sobre les façanes. Els resultats parcials del cas d'estudi demostren com es pot disposar d'informació rellevant per a una gestió preventiva eficaç. Les conclusions de la Tesi Doctoral reafirmen la validesa del sistema predictiu plantejat i que es postula com un model eficaç per a la prevenció en la degradació dels fronts urbans. El capítol final també incorpora aspectes de millora de les inspeccions com els mitjans TIC i la formació dels inspectors, i al seu torn apunta propostes per a incorporar dades dinàmiques sobre el territori aprofitant el potencial de QGIS i dotar de més anàlisi estadística a l'aplicatiu FAD. El doctorand argumenta que aquest tipus d'iniciatives requereixen un suport de les institucions encarregades de vetllar per la sostenibilitat del que s'ha construït i proposa la creació de comissions per a la implantació futura de sistemes predictius que millorin i optimitzin la gestió del parc urbà. ; Es contrastable la evidencia del envejecimiento progresivo del parque edificado de las ciudades, junto al fuerte impacto social y repercusión económica en términos de mantenimiento que éste representa, así como el riesgo para las personas que lleva asociado. En este contexto, la Tesis Doctoral explora vías para interceder ante estos fenómenos mediante metodologías predictivas que abordan la problemática bajo una perspectiva de grandes áreas urbanas. Para conseguir este objetivo la investigación propone un sistema predictivo a multiescala de la degradación de los frentes urbanos edificados de la ciudad. La Tesis Doctoral plantea incorporar a las teorías existentes de durabilidad, ciclo de vida y análisis del ciclo de vida una aportación innovadora fundamentada en la introducción de técnicas de análisis de supervivencia predictivas. Para ello la investigación se ha estructurado en tres partes que contribuien al objetivo principal. En la Parte I, Introducción al marco teórico y al laboratorio urbano, se exponen las conclusiones a las que nos ha llevado la revisión de la bibliografía científica y de la legislación existente. Una vez presentado el Laboratorio Urbano, se justifica y define cómo estructurar los elementos objeto de observación, qué tipologías arquitectónicas resultan, la sitúan dentro de la trama urbana, qué relaciones se establecen con los fenómenos medioambientales, principales agentes de degradación y a qué tipo de lesiones corresponden. La metodología de inspección, las técnicas de análisis estadístico y la implementación de un aplicativo en SIG se investigan y proponen en la Parte II. En cuanto al modelo de fichas para realizar las inspecciones de fachadas, el documento propuesto ha sido revisado por expertos, optimizado vía métodos comparativos multicriterio, y estudiado la fiabilidad de los equipos de inspección. En el Capítulo 5 se describen las técnicas empleadas dentro del modelo de análisis estadístico de supervivencia aplicando modelos no paramétricos para datos con censura en un intervalo. Se introduce el estimador de Turnbull para este tipo de análisis, como alternativa a los análisis paramétricos. Las técnicas presentadas son fundamentales en cuanto representan un cambio de paradigma en las estrategias de modelización preventiva. La metodología de inspección y de análisis de supervivencia propuestos se ha integrado en un entorno de gestión SIG. Por ello se ha implementado un aplicativo estadístico en QGIS que permite la exploración territorial, morfológica y de lesiones del frente urbano y el modelado de los tiempos hasta la lesión haciendo uso de librerías de R. El aplicativo ha sido programado en lenguaje Python y representa una relevante aportación como herramienta de soporte a la toma de decisiones sobre el parque edificado, en cuanto al conocimiento que infiere sobre el proceso de deterioro de los frentes urbanos. Con la metodología del sistema predictivo disponible se procede a la exploración y obtención de resultados sobre un caso de estudio. La ciudad escogida ha sido la de L'Hospitalet de Llobregat. En la Parte III se hallan descritas las distintas campañas de inspección. La investigación ha relajado hipótesis previas de manera que ha permitido que sean los datos quienes marquen los focos de interés más significativos. También se proponen e ilustran técnicas de modelización no paramétricas para determinar qué variables intervienen en el proceso de aparición de las lesiones sobre las fachadas. Las conclusiones de la Tesis Doctoral reafirman la validez del sistema predictivo planteado y que se postula como un modelo eficaz para la prevención en la degradación de los frentes urbanos. El capítulo final incorpora aspectos de mejora de las inspecciones y la formación de los inspectores, y apunta propuestas para incorporar datos dinámicos sobre el territorio y dotar de mayor análisis estadístico al aplicativo FAD. ; Postprint (published version)

2007/2008 ; La sicurezza nazionale ed internazionale è il principale obiettivo a cui tendono le politiche nazionali e sovranazionali delle moderne società. La complessità dell'organizzazione sociale, se da un lato consente standard di vita di qualità elevata, dall'altro implica l'utilizzo di complessi apparati infrastrutturali che consentono di semplificare e velocizzare le principali attività umane. Il tema della sicurezza, negli ultimi anni, riveste particolare importanza a causa del diffondersi dell'allarme legato al terrorismo internazionale. Tale fattore ha contribuito a generare un diffuso senso di insicurezza, avvertito in modo generalizzato dalla maggior parte dei cittadini degli Stati industrializzati. Per tali ragioni gli Stati e le Organizzazioni internazionali e sovranazionali, al fine di tutelare la sicurezza delle società, si preoccupano di affrontare le principali minacce che possono provenire sia da attentati terroristici che da catastrofi, calamità naturali o semplici errori umani. In Europa la politica comunitaria in tema di sicurezza ha conosciuto varie tappe che hanno portato la Comunità europea (poi Unione europea) ad elaborare forme di cooperazione intergovernativa limitate ad ambiti settoriali. In una prima fase nel settore della Giustizia e Affari interni è stato impiegato il metodo intergovernativo. Solo con il Trattato di Amsterdam si ottiene una parziale apertura verso l'impiego del metodo comunitario, che vede la partecipazione diretta delle Istituzioni comunitarie nell'adozione di decisioni vincolanti per tutti gli Stati membri. Successivamente, la Costituzione dell'Unione europea ha fatto enormi passi in avanti, prevedendo il totale impiego del metodo comunitario nella materia. La mancata ratifica della Costituzione europea, però, ha bloccato l'applicazione di questa impostazione innovativa. E' emersa, a quel punto, l'esigenza di adottare un nuovo Trattato che supplisse la mancata ratifica della Costituzione europea. Il nuovo "Trattato di riforma", il così detto Trattato di Lisbona ripropone l'impiego del metodo comunitario in tutta la materia della sicurezza interna, prevedendo, però, delle limitazioni a favore di alcuni Stati. In tal modo si dimostra che le pregiudiziali degli Stati membri in merito a restrizioni della propria sovranità nazionale in materia di sicurezza, ancora oggi, non sono del tutto superate. Si punta, pertanto, a combattere le principali minacce che minano la sicurezza interna europea con una visione nazionale, quando, al contrario, la principale minaccia stessa, ovvero il terrorismo internazionale, ha una dimensione sovranazionale. La difesa della sicurezza interna, inoltre, passa per la protezione dell'apparato infrastrutturale che governa il meccanismo di funzionamento delle società moderne. Anche in questo campo si pone un problema di governance della materia e di compatibilità delle misure di protezione offerte da singoli Stati, rispetto a standard di protezione che dovrebbero essere omogenei ed uniformemente applicati in tutto il territorio comunitario. Infatti, l'adozione di standard differenziati di misure di protezione rispetto ad infrastrutture che hanno una dimensione sovranazionale farebbe sì che gli Stati che spendono di più per offrire maggiori garanzie di sicurezza, vedrebbero vanificati i loro sforzi se, ad esempio, lo Stato vicino, che utilizza la medesima infrastruttura o rete infrastrutturale, adottasse standard di protezione più bassi. Standard di protezione omogenei, a livello europeo, sono richiesti in particolare nel campo delle infrastrutture critiche, ovvero apparati infrastrutturali destinati ad erogare servizi o prestazioni in settori vitali. Le infrastrutture critiche sono le arterie grazie alle quali si mantengono in vita le moderne società. L'acqua, l'energia, la salute, ma anche il trasporto, la comunicazione e l'economia vengono assicurati e garantiti grazie a infrastrutture primarie e insostituibile che, se venissero meno in modo improvviso e senza la possibilità di adottare contromisure, potrebbero causare non solo danni economici, ma anche la morte di migliaia di persone. L'Unione europea ha predisposto interventi legislativi in detto settore a partire dalla sottoscrizione del Trattato di Amsterdam del 2 ottobre 1997, con il quale l'Unione europea ha sancito la creazione di uno "Spazio di libertà, sicurezza e giustizia". L'art. 1, comma 5, del Trattato di Amsterdam prevede tra gli "Obiettivi" dell'Unione europea quello di "conservare e sviluppare l'Unione quale spazio di libertà, sicurezza e giustizia in cui sia assicurata la libera circolazione delle persone insieme a misure appropriate per quanto concerne i controlli alle frontiere esterne, l'asilo, l'immigrazione, la prevenzione della criminalità e la lotta contro quest'ultima". Con la Comunicazione n. 184 della Commissione al Consiglio e al Parlamento europeo del 10 maggio 2005, la Commissione dell'Unione europea propone l'adozione del "Programma dell'Aia: dieci priorità per i prossimi cinque anni. Partenariato per rinnovare l'Europa nel campo della libertà, sicurezza e giustizia". Il Programma dell'Aia, adottato dal Consiglio europeo nel novembre 2004, elenca dieci priorità dirette a rafforzare lo spazio di libertà, sicurezza e giustizia nei successivi cinque anni (2005-2010). Le priorità riguardano, fra l'altro, il rafforzamento dei diritti fondamentali e della cittadinanza, la lotta contro il terrorismo, la definizione di una gestione integrata delle frontiere esterne dell'Unione, l'elaborazione di un'impostazione strategica per far fronte alla criminalità organizzata, la condivisione della responsabilità e degli interventi di solidarietà. Partendo da tali premesse l'Unione europea individua le linee strategiche del suo intervento legislativo nel settore della protezione della sicurezza interna. Ed è in tale sede che l'Unione europea considera, come elemento fondamentale per la garanzia della sicurezza europea, la protezione dell'apparato infrastrutturale europeo. Risulta evidente, però, il fatto l'Unione europea si preoccupa di disciplinare la protezione delle infrastrutture europee esclusivamente nell'ambito della lotta al terrorismo. Tale approccio non risulta essere pienamente soddisfacente poiché le cause di default di un'infrastruttura critica potrebbero scaturire da un attacco terroristico, ma anche da un malfunzionamento, da un errore umano o da una calamità naturale. La stretta interconnessione delle infrastrutture critiche europee le rende maggiormente vulnerabili rispetto ad eventuali attacchi terroristici, ma anche rispetto a catastrofi o a calamità naturali. Gli eventi calamitosi e catastrofici hanno spesso ripercussioni a livello transfrontaliero, cosicché risulta necessario che gli Stati membri dimostrino solidarietà reciproca e pongano in essere un sistema di risposta a livello comunitario. Una strategia efficace deve puntare sia sulla prevenzione che sulla gestione delle conseguenze di attacchi e catastrofi, così come prevede il Programma dell'Aia. Per essere efficiente, il sistema europeo di protezione delle infrastrutture critiche deve favorire lo scambio di informazioni sulle minacce comuni e mettere a punto adeguate misure e strategie per ridurre il rischio, soprattutto, ma non solo, di attentati a sfondo terroristico. A livello europeo, diventa necessaria l'istituzione di un sistema di analisi dei rischi, onde garantire l'interoperatività dei principali soggetti coinvolti a diverso titolo nella dimensione della sicurezza. È fondamentale che le norme, le regole e la loro applicazione pratica siano ovunque le stesse, anche se non è necessario che tutti i Paesi dispongano di sistemi identici. L'Unione europea, dunque, nel settore della protezione delle infrastrutture critiche è chiamata ad assumere un ruolo di coordinamento, poiché in molti casi l'efficacia delle misure nazionali dipende dalle attività di collaborazione a livello transfrontaliero. Per tali ragioni, nel dicembre 2008 è stata adottata la Direttiva 2008/114/CE da parte del Consiglio dell'Unione europea relativa "all'individuazione e alla designazione delle infrastrutture critiche europee e alla valutazione della necessità di migliorarne la protezione", finalizzata alla predisposizione di una disciplina quadro in materia di infrastrutture critiche europee. Lo scopo di tale intervento legislativo concerne l'individuazione delle infrastrutture critiche con una dimensione europea (ICE). L'individuazione delle ICE potrà avvenire soltanto mediante una procedura comune volta alla valutazione della necessità di migliorarne la protezione. Ciò che preoccupa maggiormente le Istituzioni comunitarie è il fenomeno che viene definito ridondanza dei sistemi infrastrutturali. Tale fenomeno comporta che un guasto (di natura accidentale o dolosa) in un'infrastruttura possa facilmente propagarsi, con un effetto domino, ad altre infrastrutture amplificando i suoi effetti e provocando disfunzioni e malfunzionamenti anche ad utenti remoti, sia dal punto di vista geografico che funzionale, rispetto al punto ove si è verificato il guasto iniziale. Questo anche in considerazione del fatto che, soprattutto in seguito alla diffusione delle nuove tecnologie, le infrastrutture hanno sviluppato una crescente interdipendenza per cui azioni svolte in un settore possono avere immediate ripercussioni su altri settori anche non correlati ai primi. Nel settore dell'energia, l'interconnessione delle reti, in realtà, consente di diminuire i fenomeni di dipendenza da fornitori unici e, dunque, garantisce l'alternatività degli approvvigionamenti con enormi vantaggi in termini di sicurezza, qualità ed economicità del servizio. Per tali ragioni l'Unione europea ha predisposto, nell'ambito della sua politica volta allo sviluppo delle reti trans europee (TEN), la creazione di ulteriori infrastrutture di collegamento detti "connettori" in grado di collegare il territorio europeo ad altri mercati da cui attingere risorse energetiche in modo da diminuire la sua dipendenza rispetto alle aree da cui tradizionalmente si rifornisce. Le infrastrutture energetiche presentano, a causa della loro estesa diramazione territoriale e a causa della importanza economica che rivestono, un'importanza strategica che richiede necessariamente una gestione della sicurezza realizzata a livello sovranazionale. Inoltre, tali infrastrutture essendo collocate parzialmente anche in territori esterni all'Unione europea, richiederebbero interventi europei maggiormente incisivi e volti a ottenere maggiori garanzie circa la loro messa in sicurezza. Allo stato attuale, l'Unione europea ha realizzato notevoli passi in avanti in merito allo sviluppo e al potenziamento delle reti transeuropee nei diversi campi del trasporto, dell'energia e delle comunicazioni. Tali infrastrutture risultano di prioritaria importanza per la creazione di uno spazio comunitario fortemente integrato ed interconnesso, ma richiedono un approccio sovranazionale in termini di gestione, di finanziamento degli interventi e in termini di governance della sicurezza. I provvedimenti emanati e il modello organizzativo adottato dagli Stati membri per la salvaguardia della sicurezza interna e per la protezione delle infrastrutture critiche collocate sui territori sono differenti. Da un'analisi comparatistica risulta, infatti, che alcuni Paesi si specializzano e si concentrano su determinati settori ritenuti particolarmente sensibili, altri preferiscono affidarsi ad organi singoli a cui affidano una competenza generale in tema di infrastrutture critiche, altri Paesi, al contrario, preferiscono attribuire ulteriori funzioni relative alla protezione delle infrastrutture critiche ad enti già esistenti ed operanti in specifici settori. Alcuni progetti finanziati dall'Unione europea e predisposti da un partenariato internazionale, a cui hanno aderito anche alcuni enti di ricerca italiani, quali l'ENEA (Ente per le Nuove Tecnologie l'Energia e l'Ambiente) e il CRIAI (Consorzio Campano di Ricerca per l'Informatica e l'Automazione Industriale) affrontano temi importanti in materia di infrastrutture critiche. In particolare, il progetto "DIESIS" (Design of an Interoperable european federated Simulation network for Critical Infrastructures) affronta il tema dell'analisi delle interconnessioni e delle interdipendenze mediante l'impiego di tecniche di modellazione e simulazione informatiche. In tale contesto vengono proposte tecniche volte a realizzare l'integrazione di diversi software impiegati per la protezione di infrastrutture operanti in diversi settori. Il progetto "Governo e sicurezza delle reti tecnologiche ed energetiche" si concentra, invece, sulla tematica della protezione delle infrastrutture critiche ad estesa ramificazione territoriale, come le infrastrutture energetiche (elettriche e petrolifere). Tale progetto analizza il concetto di rete infrastrutturale e di interdipendenze geografiche o territoriali. Le conseguenze e i rischi correlati vengono analizzati sotto diverse angolazioni. Si prevede l'impiego delle analisi delle interdipendenze, ad esempio, grazie alle quali è possibile realizzare le così dette "analisi di scenari", ovvero prefigurazioni virtuali volte ad anticipare gli effetti negativi causati da sospensioni o arresti dell'erogazione di un servizio. Le analisi di scenario sono finalizzate allo studio di contromisure che possano evitare o mitigare gli effetti dannosi di malfunzionamenti di infrastrutture, cagionati da comportamenti umani dolosi o colposi, da calamità naturali o da semplici guasti tecnici. Infatti, le reti che connettono i diversi apparati infrastrutturali devono permettere l'operatività delle infrastrutture in normali condizioni di funzionamento, ma anche e soprattutto garantire un'adeguata capacità operativa in caso di eventi critici (attività di business continuity). Per il loro funzionamento, tali infrastrutture si basano sempre di più su sistemi di telecomunicazione. Per tali ragioni il progetto prevede la creazione di tre nuovi Centri di ricerca, denominati "Dimostratori", proprio per il ruolo innovativo che intendono rivestire. Il primo è il Centro Nazionale di Analisi e Simulazione di Infrastrutture Critiche, da realizzare presso il Centro ENEA di Portici che sarà messo a disposizione degli operatori delle diverse infrastrutture ed in particolare del Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, per la creazione di un "Centro di Competenza" sul tema della protezione infrastrutture critiche. Il secondo Dimostratore è il Laboratorio di integrazione e prova (Testbed), da realizzare presso il Centro ENEA di Casaccia (con sede in Roma), per lo sviluppo, l'integrazione e il test delle tecnologie e delle soluzioni ICT sviluppate allo scopo di diminuire la vulnerabilità delle Grandi Reti Tecnologiche e prevenire i fenomeni di caduta in cascata attraverso la condivisione di informazioni in tempo reale. Il terzo Dimostratore sarà istituito presso il Centro ENEA Trisaia, (con sede in Rotondella, MT), e sarà finalizzato a realizzare un sistema di Early Warning per la protezione delle reti di distribuzione di olio combustibile, gas metano, elettricità ed acqua potabile, con un'applicazione pilota per l'area dei pozzi petroliferi situati nella Val D'Agri, in Basilicata. ; XXI

Under a Creative Commons license.-- Review.-- et al. ; Targeted therapies and the consequent adoption of >personalized> oncology have achieved notablesuccesses in some cancers; however, significant problems remain with this approach. Many targetedtherapies are highly toxic, costs are extremely high, and most patients experience relapse after a fewdisease-free months. Relapses arise from genetic heterogeneity in tumors, which harbor therapy-resistantimmortalized cells that have adopted alternate and compensatory pathways (i.e., pathways that are notreliant upon the same mechanisms as those which have been targeted). To address these limitations, aninternational task force of 180 scientists was assembled to explore the concept of a low-toxicity >broad-spectrum> therapeutic approach that could simultaneously target many key pathways and mechanisms. Using cancer hallmark phenotypes and the tumor microenvironment to account for the various aspectsof relevant cancer biology, interdisciplinary teams reviewed each hallmark area and nominated a widerange of high-priority targets (74 in total) that could be modified to improve patient outcomes. For thesetargets, corresponding low-toxicity therapeutic approaches were then suggested, many of which werephytochemicals. Proposed actions on each target and all of the approaches were further reviewed forknown effects on other hallmark areas and the tumor microenvironment. Potential contrary or procar-cinogenic effects were found for 3.9% of the relationships between targets and hallmarks, and mixedevidence of complementary and contrary relationships was found for 7.1%. Approximately 67% of therelationships revealed potentially complementary effects, and the remainder had no known relationship. Among the approaches, 1.1% had contrary, 2.8% had mixed and 62.1% had complementary relationships. These results suggest that a broad-spectrum approach should be feasible from a safety standpoint. Thisnovel approach has potential to be relatively inexpensive, it should help us address stages and types ofcancer that lack conventional treatment, and it may reduce relapse risks. A proposed agenda for futureresearch is offered. ; Amr Amin was funded by Terry Fox Foundation Grant # TF-13-20 and UAEU Program for Advanced Research (UPAR) #31S118; Jack Arbiser was funded by NIHAR47901; Alexandra Arreola was funded by NIH NRSA Grant F31CA154080; Alla Arzumanyan was funded by NIH (NIAID) R01: Combination therapies for chronic HBV, liver disease, and cancer (AI076535); Work in the lab of Asfar S. Azmi is supported by NIH R21CA188818 as well as from Sky Foundation Inc. Michigan; Fabian Benencia was supported by NIH Grant R15 CA137499-01; Alan Bilsland was supported by the University of Glasgow, Beatson Oncology Centre Fund, CRUK (www.cancerresearchuk.org) Grant C301/A14762; Amancio Carnero was supported by grants from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivity, ISCIII (Fis: PI12/00137, RTICC: RD12/0036/0028) co-funded by FEDER from Regional Development European Funds (European Union), Consejeria de Ciencia e Innovacion (CTS-6844 and CTS-1848) and Consejeria de Salud of the Junta de Andalucia (PI-0135-2010 and PI-0306-2012). His work on this project has also been made possible thanks to the Grant PIE13/0004 co-funded by the ISCIII and FEDER funds; Stephanie C. Casey was supported by NIH Grant F32CA177139; Mrinmay Chakrabarti was supported by the United Soybean Board; Rupesh Chaturvedi was supported by an NIH NCCAM Grant (K01AT007324); Georgia Zhuo Chen was supported by an NIH NCI Grant (R33 CA161873-02); Helen Chen acknowledges financial support from the Michael Cuccione Childhood Cancer Foundation Graduate Studentship; Sophie Chen acknowledges financial support from the Ovarian and Prostate Cancer Research Trust, UK; Yi Charlie Chen acknowledges financial support from the West Virginia Higher Education Policy Commission/Division of Science Research, his research was also supported by NIH grants (P20RR016477 and P20GM103434) from the National Institutes of Health awarded to the West Virginia IDeA Network of Biomedical Research Excellence; Maria Rosa Ciriolo was partially supported by the Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC) Grants #IG10636 and #15403; Helen M. Coley acknowledges financial support from the GRACE Charity, UK and the Breast Cancer Campaign, UK; Marisa Connell was supported by a Michael Cuccione Childhood Cancer Foundation Postdoctoral Fellowship; Sarah Crawford was supported by a research grant from Connecticut State University; Charlotta Dabrosin acknowledges financial support from the Swedish Research Council and the Swedish Research Society; Giovanna Damia gratefully acknowledges the generous contributions of The Italian Association for Cancer Research (IG14536 to G.D.); ; Santanu Dasgupta gratefully acknowledges the support of the University of Texas Health Science Centre at Tyler, Elsa U. Pardee Foundation; William K. Decker was supported in part by CPRIT, the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas; Anna Mae E. Diehl was supported by NIH National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK), the NIH National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA), Gilead and Shire Pharmaceuticals; Q. Ping Dou was partially supported by NIH/NCI (1R01CA20009, 5R01CA127258-05 and R21CA184788), and NIH P30 CA22453 (to Karmanos Cancer Institute); Janice E. Drew was supported by the Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division; Eyad Elkord thanks the National Research Foundation, United Arab Emirates University and the Terry Fox Foundation for supporting research projects in his lab; Bassel El-Rayes was supported by Novartis Pharmaceutical, Aveo Pharmaceutical, Roche, Bristol Myers Squibb, Bayer Pharmaceutical, Pfizer, and Kyowa Kirin; Mark A. Feitelson was supported by NIH/NIAID Grant AI076535; ; Dean W. Felsher was supported by NIH grants (R01CA170378, U54CA149145, and U54CA143907); Lynnette R Ferguson was financially supported by the Auckland Cancer Society and the Cancer Society of New Zealand; Gary L. Firestone was supported by NIH Public Service Grant CA164095 awarded from the National Cancer Institute; Christian Frezza "would like to acknowledge funding from a Medical Research Council CCU-Program Grant on cancer metabolism, and a unique applicant AICR project grant"; Mark M. Fuster was supported by NIH Grant R01-HL107652; Alexandros G. Georgakilas was supported by an EU Marie Curie Reintegration Grant MC-CIG-303514, Greek National funds through the Operational Program 'Educational and Lifelong Learning of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF)-Research Funding Program THALES (Grant number MIS 379346) and COST Action CM1201 'Biomimetic Radical Chemistry'; Michelle F. Green was supported by a Duke University Molecular Cancer Biology T32 Training Grant; Brendan Grue was supported by a National Sciences Engineering and Research Council Undergraduate Student Research Award in Canada; Dorota Halicka was supported by by NIH NCI grant NCI RO1 28704; Petr Heneberg was supported by the Charles University in Prague projects UNCE 204015 and PRVOUK P31/2012, by the Czech Science Foundation projects 15-03834Y and P301/12/1686, by the Czech Health Research Council AZV project 15-32432A, and by the Internal Grant Agency of the Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic project NT13663-3/2012; Matthew D. Hirschey wishes to acknowledge Duke University Institutional Support, the Duke Pepper Older Americans Independence Center (OAIC) Program in Aging Research supported by the National Institute of Aging (P30AG028716-01) and NIH/NCI training grants to Duke University (T32-CA059365-19 and 5T32-CA059365); ; Lorne J. Hofseth was supported by NIH grants (1R01CA151304, 1R03CA1711326, and 1P01AT003961); Kanya Honoki was supported in part by the grant from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (No. 24590493); Hsue-Yin Hsu was supported in part by grants from the Ministry of Health and Welfare (CCMP101-RD-031 and CCMP102-RD-112) and Tzu-Chi University (61040055-10) of Taiwan; Lasse D. Jensen was supported by Svenska Sallskapet for Medicinsk Forskning, Gosta Fraenkels Stiftelse, Ak.e Wibergs Stiftelse, Ollie och Elof Ericssons Stiftelse, Linkopings Universitet and the Karolinska Institute, Sweden; Wen G. Jiang wishes to acknowledge the support by Cancer Research Wales, the Albert Hung Foundation, the Fong Family Foundation, and Welsh Government A4B scheme; Lee W. Jones was supported in part by grants from the NIH NCI; W Nicol Keith was supported by the University of Glasgow, Beatson Oncology Centre Fund, CRUK (www.cancerresearchuk.org) Grant C301/A14762; Sid P. Kerkar was supported by the NIH Intramural Research Program; Rob J. Kulathinal was supported by the National Science Foundation, and the American Cancer Society; Byoung S. Kwon was supported in part by National Cancer Center (NCC-1310430-2) and National Research Foundation (NRF-2005-0093837); Anne Le was supported by Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Fund Grant 80028595, a Lustgarten Fund Grant 90049125 and Grant NIHR21CA169757 (to Anne Le); Michael A. Lea was funded by the The Alma Toorock Memorial for Cancer Research; Ho-Young Lee. ; This work was supported by grants from the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (MSIP), Republic of Korea (Nos. 2011-0017639 and 2011-0030001) and by a NIH Grant R01 CA100816; Liang-Tzung Lin was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Education of Taiwan (TMUTOP103005-4); Jason W. Locasale acknowledges support from NIH awards (CA168997 and AI110613) and the International Life Sciences Institute; Bal L. Lokeshwar was supported in part by United States' Public Health Services Grants: NIH R01CA156776 and VA-BLR&D Merit Review Grant No. 5I01-BX001517-02; Valter D. Longo acknowledges support from NIH awards (P01AG034906 and R01AG020642) and from the V Foundation; Costas A. Lyssiotis was funded in part by the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network as a Pathway to Leadership Fellow and through a Dale F. Frey Breakthrough award from the Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation; Karen L. MacKenzie wishes to acknowledge the support from the Children's Cancer Institute Australia (affiliated with the University of New South Wales, Australia and the Sydney Children's Hospital Network); Maria Marino was supported by grant from University Roma Tre to M.M. (CLA 2013) and by the Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC-Grant #IG15221); ; Ander Matheu is funded by Carlos III Health Institute (AM: CP10/00539), Basque Foundation for Science (IKERBASQUE) and Marie Curie CIG Grant (AM: 2012/712404); Christopher Maxwell was supported by funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, in partnership with the Avon Foundation for Women (OBC-134038) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research New Investigator Salary Award (MSH-136647); Eoin McDonnell received Duke University Institutional Support; Kapil Mehta was supported by Bayer Healthcare System G4T (Grants4Targets); Gregory A. Michelotti received support from NIH NIDDK, NIH NIAAA, and Shire Pharmaceuticals; Vinayak Muralidhar was supported by the Harvard-MIT Health Sciences and Technology Research Assistantship Award; Elena Niccolai was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and the University of Italy; Virginia R. Parslow gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the Auckland Cancer Society Research Centre (ACSRC); Graham Pawelec was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, BMBF) Grant number 16SV5536K, and by the European Commission (FP7 259679 "IDEAL"); Peter L. Pedersen was supported by NIH Grant CA-10951; Brad Poore was supported by Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Fund Grant 80028595, the Lustgarten Fund Grant 90049125, and Grant NIHR21CA169757 (to Anne Le); Satya Prakash was supported by a Canadian Institutes of Health Research Grant (MOP 64308); Lizzia Raffaghello was supported by an NIH Grant (P01AG034906-01A1) and Cinque per Mille dell'IRPEF–Finanziamento della Ricerca Sanitaria; Jeffrey C. Rathmell was supported by an NIH Grant (R01HL108006); Swapan K. Ray was supported by the United Soybean Board; Domenico Ribatti received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under Grant agreement n°278570; Luigi Ricciardiello was supported by the AIRC Investigator Grants 10216 and 13837, and the European Community's Seventh Framework Program FP7/2007–2013 under Grant agreement 311876; Francis Rodier acknowledges the support of the Canadian Institute for Health Research (FR: MOP114962, MOP125857), Fonds de Recherche Québec Santé (FR: 22624), and the Terry Fox Research Institute (FR: 1030); ; Gian Luigi Russo contributed to this effort while participating in the Fulbright Research Scholar Program 2013–14; Isidro Sanchez-Garcia is partially supported by FEDER and by MICINN (SAF2012-32810), by NIH Grant (R01 CA109335-04A1), by Junta de Castilla y León (BIO/SA06/13) and by the ARIMMORA project (FP7-ENV-2011, European Union Seventh Framework Program). Isidro Sanchez-Garcia's lab is also a member of the EuroSyStem and the DECIDE Network funded by the European Union under the FP7 program; Andrew J. Sanders wishes to acknowledge the support by Cancer Research Wales, the Albert Hung Foundation, the Fong Family Foundation, and Welsh Government A4B scheme; Neeraj K. Saxena was supported by grant funding from NIH NIDDK (K01DK077137, R03DK089130); Dipali Sharma was partially funded by NIH NCI grants (R01CA131294, R21 CA155686), the Avon Foundation and a Breast Cancer Research Foundation Grant (90047965); Markus David Siegelin received funding from National Institute of Health, NINDS Grant K08NS083732, and the 2013 AACR-National Brain Tumor Society Career Development Award for Translational Brain Tumor Research, Grant Number 13-20-23-SIEG; Neetu Singh was supported by funds from the Department of Science and Technology (SR/FT/LS-063/2008), New Delhi, India; Carl Smythe was supported by Yorkshire Cancer Research and The Wellcome Trust, UK; Carmela Spagnuolo was supported by funding from Project C.I.S.I.A., act n. 191/2009 from the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance Project CAMPUS-QUARC, within program FESR Campania Region 2007/2013, objectives 2.1, 2.2; Diana M. Stafforini was supported by grants from the National Cancer Institute (5P01CA073992), IDEA Award W81XWH-12-1-0515 from the Department of Defense, and by the Huntsman Cancer Foundation; John Stagg was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Pochi R. Subbarayan was supported by the University of Miami Clinical and Translational Science Institute (CTSI) Pilot Research Grant (CTSI-2013-P03) and SEEDS You Choose Awards; Phuoc T. Tran was funded by the DoD (W81XWH-11-1-0272 and W81XWH-13-1-0182), a Kimmel Translational Science Award (SKF-13-021), an ACS Scholar award (122688-RSG-12-196-01-TBG) and the NIH (R01CA166348); Kathryn E. Wellen receives funding from the National Cancer Institute, Pancreatic Cancer Action Network, Pew Charitable Trusts, American Diabetes Association, and Elsa U. Pardee Foundation; Huanjie Yang was partially supported by the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Oversea Scholars, State Education Ministry and Scientific and Technological Innovation Project, Harbin (2012RFLXS011); ; Paul Yaswen was supported by funding from the United States National Institutes of Health (ES019458) and the California Breast Cancer Research Program (17UB-8708); Clement Yedjou was supported by a grant from the National Institutes of Health (Grant # G1200MD007581), through the RCMI-Center for Environmental Health; Xin Yin was supported by NIH/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Training Grant T32HL098062.; Jiyue Zhu was supported by NIH Grant R01GM071725; Massimo Zollo was supported by the European FP7-TuMIC HEALTH-F2-2008-201662, the Italian Association for Cancer research (AIRC) Grant IG # 11963 and the Regione Campania L.R:N.5, the European National Funds PON01-02388/1 2007-2013. ; Peer Reviewed

Aus der Einleitung: 4.500 Mitarbeiter, zehn Länder, drei Kontinente und fünf Zeitzonen: Das ist die Bilanz der Produktion der elektrischen Zahnbürste "Sonicare Elite 7000" der Firma Philips aus den Niederlanden (vgl. Abb. 1). Bis zu der Verpackung in Seattle haben die Komponenten zwei Drittel des Erdumfangs zurückgelegt. Die "Weltbürste" ist nur eines von zahllosen Beispielen, welches auf die weltumspannenden Produktionsnetze hinweist. Die Ausweitung der internationalen Arbeitsteilung ist der Motor der Weltwirtschaft, die sich laut Weltbank in der "revolutionären Phase" der Globalisierung befindet. Unter Globalisierung versteht man gemeinhin die Zunahme weltweiter Verflechtungen infolge der Ausbreitung und Vertiefung ökonomischer, ökologischer, politischer und kultureller Prozesse. Aus ökonomischer Perspektive steht die Ausbildung weltweiter Märkte im Mittelpunkt, "auf denen Waren und Dienstleistungen gehandelt, Investitionen getätigt, Technologien übertragen und Informationen ausgetauscht werden". Mit zunehmender Interdependenz der Weltwirtschaft hängt das ökonomische und soziale Wohl der Nationen, Regionen und Städte von komplexen Interaktionen auf globaler Ebene ab. Mit anderen Worten, "what happens in any given country or locality is broadly determinedby its role in systems of production, trade and consumption which have become global in scope". Jeder Ort, jede Region oder Nation übernimmt somit innerhalb des von Konkurrenz geprägten Weltsystems eine spezifische Rolle. Der gegenwärtige Strukturwandel im Zeichen der Globalisierung fordert die "Rollenverteilung" des "modernen Weltsystems", dessen Ursprung unter anderem im Europa des 15. Jahrhunderts zu suchen ist, heraus. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist der "ökonomische Auf- bzw. Abstieg von Ländern und Regionen" zu sehen, das heißt es gibt Gewinner und Verlierer des Strukturwandels. Dubai bietet die moderne Version von Tausendundeiner Nacht: es sind vor allem Projekte der Superlative, wie zum Beispiel das einzige Sieben-Sterne Hotel der Welt und aufgeschüttete Inseln in Form einer Palme, die das Bild von Dubai nachhaltig prägen. Künstliche Welten, internationale Sportereignisse, Gesundheitstourismus und an erster Stelle Shopping-Tourismus – Dubai ist in vielfältiger Weise für Touristen aus aller Welt attraktiv. Jedoch beginnt die große Erfolgsgeschichte der Moderne nicht erst mit dem Touristenaufkommen der 1990er Jahre. Dubai konnte sich früh als Dienstleistungs- und Handelszentrum in der Golfregion etablieren, bis in die dreißiger Jahre des 20. Jahrhunderts spielte der Perlenhandel die entscheidende Rolle. Zollfreiheit und Steuervergünstigungen zogen bereits damals zahlreiche Händler an – heute gilt Dubai als einer der bedeutendsten Umschlagplätze für den Goldhandel. Die Erlöse aus den Petrodollars nutzte die Führung seit den 1960er Jahren, um den Standort Dubai durch groß angelegte Infrastrukturprojekte, wie beispielsweise die beiden Tiefseehäfen Jebel Ali und Port Rashid, kontinuierlich zu stärken und für die Nach-Erdöl-Zeit zu sorgen. Zu Beginn des Jahres 2006 machte Dubai mit Schlagzeilen auf sich aufmerksam, die als Menetekel für die etablierten Industrieländer gedeutet werden können: Zum einen der Vorstoß der Dubai Ports World sechs Häfen an der Ostküste der USA zu übernehmen, zum anderen die neu gegründete internationale Börse DIFX (Dubai International Financial Exchange), die Unternehmen aus einem Raum anziehen will, in dem ein Drittel der Weltbevölkerung lebt. Innerhalb von nur 50 Jahren ist Dubai vom verschlafenen Fischerdorf zur "cosmopolitan regionally dominant twenty-first century city" aufgestiegen und hat somit eine einzigartige Entwicklung vollzogen. Auf der Suche nach einer Position in der Weltwirtschaft im Zeitalter der Globalisierung gibt man sich nicht mit der "reaktiven Mittlerrolle" eines "globalisierten" Ortes zufrieden, sondern strebt die aktive Funktion eines "globalen Ortes" an.m Could Dubai become the most important city on earth?" – fragt Nicolson im Online-Angebot der Khaleej Times vom 13. Februar 2006 und bringt damit das Selbstbewusstsein und die Ambitionen der Regierung Dubais auf den Punkt. Scheinbar erwacht hier eine Region, die bisher kaum jemand auf dem "Globalisierungsradar" hatte. Die Globalisierungsdebatte vermittelt oftmals den Eindruck von einem zeitlich "isoliert" auftretenden Phänomen. Der zweite zentrale Begriff des Titels der Arbeit - Weltwirtschaftssystem - wurde gewählt, um den Globalisierungsansatz in einen systematischen (historischen) Zusammenhang zu stellen. Welchen Beitrag leistet die geographische Perspektive? Die Weltwirtschaftlichen Vorgänge und die mit diesen zusammen-hängenden Transporte von Personen sowie von materiellen und immateriellen Gütern und Leistungen sind nicht nur an sich wirtschafts-geographische Arbeitsfelder, sondern ihre Wirkungen auf das innere Gefüge der an den Außenbeziehungen beteiligten Staaten machen sie zu einem wirtschaftsgeographischen Kernbereich. Ein Autor beklagt, dass die Beschäftigung der Geographen mit dem Welthandel immer spärlich ausfiel und seit Mitte des 20. Jahrhunderts zum Stillstand kam. Der Hauptgrund ist der kleine Maßstab, das heißt Übersee- und Welthandel sind mit geographischen Methoden nur schwer fassbar. Ferner hätte man versäumt eine "tragfähige Brücke zur Außenhandelstheorie der Nationalökonomie zu schlagen." Zehn Jahre später greift ein anderer die Problematik wieder auf und stellt sie gleichzeitig in den größeren Zusammenhang der Globalisierungsdiskussion. Obwohl die Prozesse und die Folgen, die mit dem Begriff Globalisierung verbunden sind, Gegenstandsbereich der Geographie sind, seien die Geographen an den zentralen Streitfragen nicht beteiligt: "Geography is rather like the small child in the school playground who always gets missed out when the big children are picking teams". Darüber hinaus moniert er, dass sich die geographische Forschung in großem Maße mit dem Zu- und Abfluss von ausländischen Direktinvestitionen beschäftige, während Handelsströme wenig beachtet würden: "in the case of international trade, what matters are not so much changes in volume - although they are important - as changes in composition". Mit eben jener "composition" in zeitlicher und räumlicher Dimension beschäftigt sich das nachfolgende Kapitel. Eine explizite "Theorie der Weltwirtschaft" existiert nicht. Dennoch sollen die vorgestellten Konzepte1 mit ihren verschiedenen Aspekten in der Gesamtansicht eine erste systematische Annäherung an das Weltwirtschaftssystem darstellen. Den aktuellen Entwicklungen und der Struktur der Weltwirtschaft im Kontext der Globalisierung widmet sich das dritte Kapitel, welches zusammen mit dem zweiten Kapitel einen "theoretischen Rahmen" bildet, innerhalb dessen schließlich die Bedeutung von Dubai herausgearbeitet werden soll.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Inhaltsverzeichnis: 1.EINLEITUNG1 1.1Von der "Weltbürste" zur Weltwirtschaft1 1.2Warum Dubai?2 1.3Forschungsstand und Fragestellung3 2.WELTWIRTSCHAFTSSYSTEM4 2.1Weltsystem-Theorie und "Weltwirtschaften"5 2.1.1Das Weltsystem nach WALLERSTEIN5 2.1.1.1Die Analyse des Weltsystems5 2.1.1.2Das moderne Weltsystem6 2.1.2Die "Weltwirtschaften" nach BRAUDEL8 2.2Die Wirtschaftsräume nach OTREMBA10 2.3Tripolarität der Weltwirtschaft11 2.3.1Die Triade nach OHMAE11 2.3.2Regionale Theorie des Welthandels nach GROTEWOLD12 2.3.3Weltstädte, Global Cities und Steuerungszentralen14 2.4Zusammenfassung16 3.GLOBALISIERUNG DER WELTWIRTSCHAFT19 3.1Problematisierung der Globalisierung19 3.1.1Der problematische Begriff Globalisierung20 3.1.2Das Problem Globalisierung21 3.2Konzeption von Globalisierung22 3.2.1Globalisierung als neue Epoche23 3.2.2Globalisierung als Prozess24 3.2.3Voraussetzungen der Globalisierung24 3.2.3.1Technologische Innovationen24 3.2.3.2Institutionelle Veränderungen26 3.2.3.3Die Integration neuer Märkte27 3.2.4Akteure der Globalisierung27 3.2.4.1Der Nationalstaat als Akteur28 3.2.4.2Global agierende Unternehmen28 3.2.4.3Der Konsument29 3.3Erscheinungsformen der Globalisierung30 3.3.1Globalisierung des Handels30 3.3.1.1Entwicklung der Rahmenbedingungen des Welthandels30 3.3.1.2Entwicklungen im Handel mit Waren und Dienstleistungen31 3.3.1.3Regionale Struktur des Welthandels34 3.3.2Globalisierung der Produktion44 3.3.2.1Von der klassischen zur neuen internationalen Arbeitsteilung44 3.3.2.2Transnationale Unternehmen46 3.3.2.3Ausländische Direktinvestitionen47 3.3.3Globalisierung der Finanzmärkte52 3.3.3.1Das Bretton Woods-System52 3.3.3.2Spekulation versus Effizienz53 3.3.4Globale Transportnetze54 3.3.4.1Die Herausbildung von Transportnetzen55 3.3.4.2Containerlinienschifffahrt55 3.3.4.3Luftverkehr61 3.4Fazit – das globalisierte Weltwirtschaftssystem64 3.4.1Globalisierung versus Regionalisierung65 3.4.2Globale Vernetzung68 3.4.2.1Global Cities als Nodalpunkte von globalen Netzwerken68 3.4.2.2Verbindung der Nodalpunkte69 4.DUBAI IM WELTWIRTSCHAFTSSYSTEM71 4.1Die Golfregion72 4.1.1Die Golfküste unter europäischem Einfluss72 4.1.2Beginn der Öl-Ära73 4.1.3Eine Region hängt am Öltropf74 4.1.3.1Die Ausgangsbedingungen74 4.1.3.2Die Organisation erdölexportierender Länder (OPEC)76 4.1.4Die Golfregion – Dependenz versus internationale Profilierung80 4.2Überblick über die VAE81 4.2.1Politisches System der VAE82 4.2.2Außenwirtschaftspolitik der VAE84 4.2.3Sozio-ökonomische Betrachtung der VAE87 4.2.3.1Entwicklung im Zeichen des Ölreichtums87 4.2.3.2Entwicklung im Zeichen der Diversifizierung91 4.3Dubai – Wirtschaftsstruktur und Standortfaktoren94 4.3.1Der Aufschwung Dubais nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg96 4.3.2Ölinduzierte Entwicklung und Diversifizierungstendenzen98 4.3.2.1Immobilienboom in Dubai101 4.3.2.2Freihandelszonen als Schnittpunkte der Diversifizierungsstrategie 102 4.3.2.3Wer investiert in Dubai?104 4.3.3Handel105 4.3.4Transportwesen108 4.3.4.1Die Häfen Dubais108 4.3.4.2Dubai International Airport 113 4.3.5Tourismus118 4.3.6Finanzen122 4.3.7Produzierendes Gewerbe123 4.4Fazit: Dubais Sonderweg in der Golfregion 124 5.DUBAIS BEDEUTUNG IM GLOBALISIERTEN WELTWIRTSCHAFTS-SYSTEM126 5.1Gewinner und Verlierer der Globalisierung126 5.2Dubai als "Hub" der Golfregion128 5.3Dubai – ein überregionales Steuerungszentrum?131 6.LITERATURVERZEICHNIS132Textprobe:Textprobe: Kapitel 4.3.2; Ölinduzierte Entwicklung und Diversifizierungstendenzen: 1963 begann man in Dubai mit den Bohrungen nach Öl, 1966 stieß man auf Öl und drei Jahre später schließlich wurde das erste Rohöl aus Dubai exportiert. Boomartig strömten Menschen, Güter und finanzielle Mittel nach Dubai. Die Ausweitung der Rohölföderung in den 1970er Jahren und die starke Anhebung des Weltmarktpreises für Rohöl in den Jahren 1973 und 1979 bescherten dem Emirat über die Zahlungen der Ölgesellschaften reiche Finanzmittel. Daraufhin erlebte die Stadt einen beispiellosen "Bau-Boom". Schulen, Krankenhäuser, Straßen und moderne Telekommunikationsnetzwerke wurden aufgebaut. Ein neuer Hafen (Port Rashid) wurde gebaut, der Dubai International Airport (DIA) wurde um einen Terminal erweitert und mit einer erweiterten Landebahn ausgestattet, die für jeden Flugzeugtyp geeignet ist. Mit Jebel Ali baute man den größten künstlichen Hafen der Welt. Um ihn herum wurde die Jebel Ali Freihandelszone (JAFZ) eingerichtet, heute eine unter vielen Freihandelszonen, mit denen Dubai Investoren anlockt. Für die zahlreichen Projekte brauchte man bereits Ende der 1960er Jahre möglichst billige Arbeitskräfte, die man insbesondere in Indien und Pakistan fand. Viele kamen auch aus dem Iran, Europa und arabischen Ländern. 1968 betrug der Anteil der ausländischen Arbeitskräfte 50% der Gesamtbevölkerung Dubais. Zwar hatten die "expatriates" oder "non-nationals" einen beträchtlichen kulturellen Einfluss auf die einheimische Gesellschaft, aber ihr politischer Einfluss in der Zivilgesellschaft war und ist beschränkt, so dürfen sie beispielsweise keine Gewerkschaften bilden. Den entscheidenden Anstoß für den Aufstieg Dubais lieferten die Öleinnahmen, eine weitere entscheidende Antriebskraft waren die lokalen Kaufleute mit ihrem Netzwerk aus internationalen Kontakten. Schon früh diversifizierten sie ihre Geschäftstätigkeiten, finanzierten große Projekte, agierten als Berater und investierten als Aktionäre in private Unternehmen, beispielsweise in die Dubai Telephone Company. Im ersten Golfkrieg bewiesen die Kaufleute ein feines Gespür für Unternehmertum, als sie in den sehr lukrativen Handel mit dem Iran eingebunden waren. Der Handel mit Konsumgütern und Ausrüstungsgegenständen jeglicher Art brachte ihnen und der gesamten Wirtschaft hohe Gewinne ein. Auch die Häfen und angeschlossene Dienstleistungen profitierten von dem Krieg, da die internationale Schifffahrt die sichereren Trockendocks in Dubai den Häfen von Kuwait und Iran vorzog. Seit den frühen 1980er Jahren ist der Handel mit den anderen GCC-Staaten kontinuierlich angewachsen, so dass die Häfen Dubais zu den geschäftigsten der ganzen Region wurden. Seit den 1970er Jahren machte Dubai durch den Bau von Trockendocks, von See- und Flughäfen sowie von Luxushotels, die Einrichtung von Freihandelszonen, das zollfreie Angebot von Uhren, Fotoartikeln, Goldschmuck und Perlen, aber auch das Angebot von Alkohol und Night Life (in Maßen) auf sich aufmerksam. Das moderne Dubai mit seinem Ruf als Handelsplatz steht damit in einer Linie mit dem Dubai vor der Öl-Ära und kann damit auf etwas aufbauen, das SALLOUM als "inherited ability for commerce by its people" bezeichnet. Dubai besitzt nur einen kleinen Anteil von 4% am Erdölvorkommen und 1,9% am Erdgasvorkommen der VAE. Die Lebensdauer beider Ressourcen wird auf 30 bis 40 Jahre geschätzt. Angesichts dessen bestimmte von Beginn an die Notwendigkeit zu alternativen Einkommensquellen für die "Nach-Erdöl-Zeit" das Handeln der Verantwortlichen. Einseitig auf den Industriesektor zu bauen kam aufgrund der nationalen und regionalen Marktenge nicht in Frage. Die politischen Entwicklungen nach dem 11. September 2001 brachten zusätzlich Unsicherheiten bezüglich der Investitionen und Anlagen im Ausland – vor allem in den USA – mit sich. Die Verantwortlichen in Dubai erkannten die Zeichen der Zeit und setzten auf die Privatisierung der Wirtschaft, die Öffnung des Landes für den internationalen Tourismus, die Liberalisierung der Immobilienmärkte sowie des Waren- und Finanzverkehrs. Flankierend dazu wurden Transportwesen, Infrastruktur und IT-Kommunikation den neuen Gegebenheiten angepasst, günstige Arbeits-, Aufenthalts- und Lebensbedingungen für alle Fachkräfte, Investoren und Besucher geschaffen. Im Zeitraum von 1975 bis 1981 verzeichnete das Emirat ein Wachstum des BIP von durchschnittlich 17% pro Jahr. Infolge des Verfalls des Ölpreises und der instabilen Verhältnisse in der Region während des ersten Golfkrieges stagnierte das BIP weitestgehend bis Ende der 1980er Jahre. Von 1990 bis 2000 verzeichnete Dubai ein Wachstum des BIP (in nominalen Preisen) zum Vorjahr von durchschnittlich 7.7%. Für das Jahr 2004 wird das BIP bei KKP mit 30 Mrd. US-$ angegeben. Das Wachstum wurde dabei primär über eine stabile Entwicklung außerhalb des Rohölsektors ("Nicht-Öl-Sektor") erreicht, welcher im Zeitraum von 1990 bis 2000 ein durchschnittliches Wachstum von 11.1% erzielte. Der Rohölsektor hingegen verzeichnete im gleichen Zeitraum einen durchschnittlichen Rückgang von -2.4% pro Jahr. Der Rohölsektor verlor demnach Anteile am BIP zugunsten des Nicht-Öl-Sektors (vgl. Abb. 26). In den 1970er und 1980er Jahren wurde knapp die Hälfte des BIP außerhalb des Rohölsektors erwirtschaftet, ab den 1990er Jahren stieg der Anteil des Nicht-Öl-Sektors am BIP deutlich: Im Jahr 1990 betrug er 65.2% des BIP, 2000 90% und 2004 bereits mehr als 93%. Die Werte belegen die von der Regierung erfolgreich eingeleiteten Diversifizierungsprozesse, insbesondere seit Beginn der 1990er Jahre, so dass die Vulnerabilität des BIP gegenüber Ölpreisschwankungen bedeutend reduziert werden konnte. Der Anteil des Rohöls am BIP Dubais ist mit 7% signifikant geringer als im Landesdurchschnitt, der einen Anteil von 33% verzeichnet (vgl. Abb. 27). Bei einem Anteil von 28% der Bevölkerung steuert Dubai alleine 31% des gesamten Nicht-Öl-Sektors der VAE bei. Besonders dynamisch entwickelten sich die Sektoren Handel, Finanzen, Transport- und Kommunikationswesen, Restaurant- und Hotelgewerbe und das produzierende Gewerbe. Zwischen 1994 und 2000 wuchs das im Hotel- und Gastronomiegewerbe erwirtschaftete BIP um 165.2%, was zu einem Großteil auf die geographische Erschließung der touristisch attraktiven Strandgebiete zurückzuführen ist. Es folgen im gleichen Zeitraum das produzierende Gewerbe (+129.6%), Transport- und Kommunikationswesen (+101.6%) und das Finanz- und Versicherungswesen (+92.2%) (VAN DE BUNT 2003: 31f.). Die neuesten Zahlen zeigen die Fortsetzung der Trends. 2004 wuchs das reale BIP Dubais um 13.3%, die Hauptanteile am Zuwachs hatten dabei: Immobilien (19.8%), produzierendes Gewerbe (15.5%), Bauindustrie (12.6%), Finanz- und Versicherungswesen (12.6%), Handel (10.7%) sowie Transport- und Kommunikationswesen (9.6%). Der Anteil des Transport- und Kommunikationswesens von Dubai ist für über 55% des gleichen Sektors der VAE verantwortlich. Des Weiteren entspricht Dubais Finanzsektor 47% des VAE–Finanzsektors. Kapitel 4.3.2.1, Immobilienboom in Dubai: Der hohe Anteil des Immobiliensektors am BIP-Zuwachs Dubais verweist auf den Boom im Immobiliensektor. Der Wert der geplanten Projekte für die nächsten fünf Jahre wird auf 30 Mrd. US-$ geschätzt. 2004 hatte die Bauindustrie einen Anteil von 13% am Nicht-Öl-BIP. Seit 2000 ist sie mit einer durchschnittlichen jährlichen Rate von 24% gewachsen, was den Bau-Boom widerspiegelt, der sich im Jahre 2003 im Bau von über 2000 Gebäuden niederschlug. Der Bausektor gilt auch als größter Arbeitgeber, 24% aller Arbeitskräfte sind hier beschäftigt, hauptsächlich aus dem Ausland stammende Arbeitnehmer. Spektakuläre Projekte, zum Beispiel "The Palm Jumeirah", "The Palm Jebel Ali" und "The World", locken Käufer schon vor Beginn der Bautätigkeiten an, so dass in Dubai die Immobilien "fast vollständig bereits vom Reißbrett verkauft" werden. Die Käufer spekulieren auf die enormen Wertsteigerungen am Immobilienmarkt Dubais – in keinem anderen Land der Welt sind Immobilien nach Fertigstellung 20% teurer geworden. Initiator und Träger der Projekte ist letztlich das Herrscherhaus beziehungsweise die von ihm kontrollierten Finanzgesellschaften – beispielsweise EMAAR, die 1997 gegründet wurde oder NAKHEEL, 2003 gegründet. In sehr viel geringerem Maße übernehmen auch Privatpersonen und Banken die (Vor-)Finanzierung der "Megaprojekte", wie sie von manchen Offiziellen bezeichnet werden. Nach der Fertigstellung werden sie meist privatisiert, das heißt vollständig oder teilweise an Einheimische vergeben. Im Sinne des Rentierstaates werden somit die Pfründe an die lokale Bevölkerung verteilt, doch die Einkommen werden erst dann erzielt, wenn die Objekte über Immobilienagenturen vermietet, verpachtet oder auch verkauft werden. Die Akteure müssen sich dazu mit einer verschärften Wettbewerbssituation auseinandersetzen. Die vielfältigen Bauaktivitäten generieren ein enormes, qualitativ und preislich hochwertiges Angebot, das die Erschließung des globalen Marktes geradezu herausfordert. Wie bereits angedeutet, sind die meisten Projekte, obwohl noch teilweise in Planung, verkauft, verpachtet oder vermietet. Die Käufer stammen überwiegend aus der Golfregion (40-46%), zu je 15-22% aus Russland und anderen GUSStaaten sowie beispielsweise aus Indien, Japan oder Südkorea. Kapitel 4.3.2.2, Freihandelszonen als Schnittpunkte der Diversifizierungsstrategie: In der Nachkriegszeit setzte die Regierung Dubais auf einen liberalen, "unternehmensfreundlichen" ökonomischen Kurs mit geringen Steuerabgaben und politisch stabilem Rahmen, in der Hoffnung, dadurch Investitionen anzuziehen. Diese Haltung drückt sich besonders in der 1985 gegründeten Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZ) aus, die erste in der Region gegründete Freihandelszone. Das Areal wurde unmittelbar im Bereich des schon existierenden Tiefsee-hafens Jebel Ali eingerichtet, der gleichzeitig mit der Gründung ausgebaut wurde. Das Konzept sieht vor, dass innerhalb der "Enklave" Geschäftstätigkeiten frei von Zoll und gesetzlichen Beschränkungen durchgeführt werden können. Unternehmen, die sich in der Freihandelszone niederlassen, nutzen nicht nur die niedrigen Arbeitskosten und Visum-freie Anheuerung der nicht-organisierten Arbeitskräfte, sondern vor allem die Möglichkeit, sich zu 100% an Kapitalgesellschaften zu beteiligen. Für Ausländer ist das außerhalb der Freihandelszonen sonst nicht möglich, es dürfen nach geltendem Recht maximal 49% einer Unternehmung in ausländischen Besitz übergehen. Die Geschäftsleute genießen noch weitere Privilegien: es ist kein Sponsor erforderlich, es ist kein Service Agent bei Zweigniederlassungen erforderlich, zwischen 15-30 Jahre garantierte Steuerbefreiung (Körperschafts- und Einkommenssteuer), freier Kapital- und Gewinntransfer. Grundsätzlich ist die aktive Teilnahme am Wirtschaftsleben der VAE erlaubt, es können Waren importiert und exportiert werden. Die Lizenzen sind jedoch nur auf das Gebiet der jeweiligen Freihandelszone beschränkt, mit der Folge, dass diese Niederlassungen gesellschaftlich als nicht in den VAE niedergelassen gelten. Deshalb erfordert der Export in die VAE einen Handelsvertreter, Importeur oder auch ein Joint Venture in Form einer Vertriebsgesellschaft. Die Entscheidung, sich in innerhalb der VAE oder in einer Freihandelszone niederzulassen, hängt somit wesentlich von dem angestrebten Zielmarkt ab. Ist dieser nicht auf die VAE beschränkt, stellt die Niederlassung in einer Freihandelszone eine sinnvolle Alternative zu einem Standort innerhalb der VAE dar. Seit der Gründung flossen über 2,5 Mrd. US-$ an Investitionen in die JAFZ, in der 2003 2.350 Firmen aus 97 Ländern angesiedelt waren. Neben japanischen Firmen (Nissan, Mitsubishi, Honda, Sony) sind vor allem auch europäische multinationale Unternehmen vertreten, beispielsweise ABB, Shell, BASF und Unilever. In den 1980er Jahren fungierte die JAFZ überwiegend als Lagerungs- und Verteilerzentrum für die multinationalen Unternehmen. In den letzten Jahren ließen sich dort auch Unternehmen des produzierenden Gewerbes nieder, dennoch dominiert der Handel mit 80% die Aktivitäten in dem Areal. Der Erfolg der JAFZ war ausschlaggebend dafür, dass in der Folgezeit noch weitere Freihandelszonen – nicht nur in Dubai – eingerichtet beziehungsweise noch in Planung gegeben wurden. Bemerkenswert sind auch die Bemühungen der Führung, Dubai als IT- und Medienstandort zu positionieren. Die Dubai Internet City stellt die notwendige Infrastruktur bereit, "that enables ICT enterprises to operate locally, regionally and globally from Dubai, with significant competitive advantage". Namhafte Unternehmen wie Microsoft, Oracle und Canon nutzen bereits dieses Angebot. Die Dubai Media City zielt auf internationale Medienunternehmen ab, die sich in den speziell eingerichteten Studios und Bürogebäuden niederlassen sollen. CNN und Reuters haben hier beispielsweise Zweigstellen etabliert. 2004 wurde die erste Produktionsstätte für Chips, CDs, DVDs und Software, das Dubai Silicon Oasis gegründet, das zusammen mit dem Knowledge Village das "knowledge-economy-system" komplettiert. Der Mix aus Industrie und Dienstleistungen in den meisten Freihandelszonen kennzeichnet ebenfalls die Diversifizierung der Wirtschaft Dubais. Zusätzlich zu produzierendem Gewerbe und Logistikunternehmen werden heute auch moderne Dienstleistungen aus dem Bereich Bankwesen, Versicherung und Recht angeboten. Dubais zukünftige Entwicklung ist durch die Entwicklung des Dienstleistungssektors determiniert. Die strukturelle Verschiebung zu einem Dienstleistungszentrum par excellance zeigt sich in den breit gefächerten Dienstleistungsaktivitäten: Handel-, Reparatur-, Restaurant- und Hoteleinrichtungen, Transport- und Kommunikationswesen, Immobiliendienstleistungen, soziale und Personaldienstleistungen, Finanz- und Versicherungswesen, staatliche Leistungen sowie Haushaltsdienstleistungen. Der Anteil des Dienstleistungssektors am BIP Dubais ist von 38% im Jahre 1985 auf 71% 2003 gestiegen (vgl. Abb. 28). Die "Wasserscheide" zu Beginn der 1990er Jahre ist mit dem im gleichen Zeitraum rapide wachsenden BIP in Verbindung zu bringen (vgl. Abb. 26) und bestätigt darüber hinaus die erfolgreiche Diversifizierungsstrategie in den 1990er Jahren. Kapitel 4.3.2.3, Wer investiert in Dubai?: Insbesondere seit den Terroranschlägen von New York und Washington sind die Rückflüsse arabischer Geldanlagen aus Amerika und Europa beträchtlich. Es existieren keine genauen Zahlen über die Privatvermögen im Ausland. Dennoch gilt als sicher, dass allein im Jahr 2002 ein dreistelliges Milliardenvermögen aus Amerika abgezogen wurde, wo Untersuchungen der Finanzbehörden ebenso drohen wie Schadenersatzprozesse im Zusammenhang mit der Finanzierung von Terrornetzwerken wie Al Qaida. Das Geld für die Milliardeninvestitionen stammt demnach vor allem von Investoren der Region, die "heute noch von den Anschlägen vom 11. September 2001 und dem US-amerikanischen Krieg gegen islamisch fundamentalistischen Terror" profitiert. Laut des Global Business Policy Council20 sehen asiatische Investoren Dubai an neunter Stelle der attraktivsten Investitionsstandorte, während Europäer es an 20. Stelle nennen. Unter japanischen und indischen Investoren rangiert Dubai auf dem 6. Platz, Investoren aus der Schweiz setzen Dubai auf den dritten Rang der attraktivsten Investitionsstandorte. ADI in Dubai sind im Jahr 2004 enorm angestiegen, auf 840 Mio. US-$, gegenüber 30 Mio. US-$ im Jahr zuvor21. Investoren des Chemie- und Elektronikbereichs äußern sich sehr zuversichtlich über die Entwicklung des produzierenden Gewerbes der Region. Insbesondere die Freihandelszonen – wie die JAFZ – sind für die Investoren aufgrund der Zoll- und Steuerprivilegien als Standort attraktiv. Die im Jahr 2005 eröffnete Industrial City in Dubai, die Investitionsanreize für die Schwerindustrie bietet, fördert das Interesse der Investoren zusätzlich. Die Direktinvestitionen in das Ausland fallen dagegen gering aus, sie werden auf 1% des BIP geschätzt. Im Vergleich dazu steuern Direktinvestitionen im Ausland zu dem BIP Hongkongs 24%, dem Singapurs 10% und dem der Schweiz 7,9% bei. Die Vorteile der Freihandelszonen-Strategie liegen auf der Hand, doch nicht alle Investoren teilen diese Euphorie. So gibt es beispielsweise Bedenken hinsichtlich der lokalen Geschäftspraktiken und geistigen Eigentumsrechte, da vertrauliche Informationen auf dem engen Raum einer Freihandelszone möglicherweise reibungsloser zu den umgebenden Wettbewerbern diffundieren. Die Bedenken haben jedoch scheinbar eine kulturelle Komponente: Asiatische Unternehmen scheinen sich weniger um mögliche Beeinträchtigungen zu sorgen als europäische oder amerikanische Firmen, wie die Entwicklung des Dragon Mart aufzeigt. Hier können sich bis zu 4.000 chinesische Firmen niederlassen, denen 15.000m² Lagerungseinrichtungen zur Verfügung gestellt werden. Darüber hinaus ist der Aufbau einer "special China Town" vorgesehen, die bis zu 20.000 Händler anziehen möchte. Von den Unternehmensclustern versprechen sich die Verantwortlichen die Stärkung des komparativen Vorteils von Dubai – insbesondere im Hinblick auf asiatische Händler – "as a gateway to serve the Middle East and European Markets". Durch die geplante Erhöhung der Anzahl der Direktflüge in die USA, ausgehend von dem Dubai International Airport, wird auch dieser Markt in stärkerem Maße berücksichtigt werden. Für die Einordnung von Dubais Rolle im Weltwirtschaftssystem ist es notwendig auf einzelne Sektoren näher einzugehen. Nachfolgend werden die Entwicklungen in den Wirtschaftssektoren Handel, Transportwesen, produzierendes Gewerbe, Finanzen sowie Tourismus aufgezeigt.

This book builds on the lessons from public institutions and programs to support innovation, both successful and failed, from Europe and Central Asia (ECA) as well as China, Finland, Israel, and the United States. Field visits to these countries were hosted by the innovation and scientific agencies of the respective governments, strengthening the international experiences presented here. This book is a culmination of ten years of analytic and operational work led by the private and financial sector development department and the chief economist's office of the ECA region of the World Bank. Several regional reports and country policy notes exploring these issues have been published over the years. The book also reflects the lively discussion in the ongoing series of flagship events to promote knowledge based economies in the region. The most recent knowledge economy forum was held in Berlin in 2010, hosted by the fraunhofer center for Central and Eastern Europe. The book identifies policies that have an adverse affect on innovation. It also identifies policy gaps that, if filled, could have a catalytic effect on private sector innovation.