Trafficking in persons has become a category of crimes that increasingly concerns the authorities with powers in the field of combating acts of an antisocial nature, but the shock wave that this type of criminal acts produces is of a much greater amplitude, causing social disturbances, psychological-behavioral, economic including financial, with a harmful impact on the defense system of national and international public order and safety.
1. Introduction: Multilateralism under attack from nationalism 2. International society and the diffusion of power in complexity 3. Nationalism, multilateralism and institutions of International society 4. Critical junctures on the pathway to European integration 5.European integration or disintegration in an era of nationalism 6. From Confucianism to nationalism in North East Asia 7. China, Japan, Korea trilateral cooperation: No way to regionalism? 8. Financial crises in the EU and NE Asia 9. The EU, NE Asia and polycentric governance of climate change: Live and let die? 10. Nationalism, multilateralism and role relationships in international polycentric governance
Forecasts and alternative scenarios of COVID-19 mortality have been critical inputs for pandemic response efforts, and decision-makers need information about predictive performance. We screen n = 386 public COVID-19 forecasting models, identifying n = 7 that are global in scope and provide public, date-versioned forecasts. We examine their predictive performance for mortality by weeks of extrapolation, world region, and estimation month. We additionally assess prediction of the timing of peak daily mortality. Globally, models released in October show a median absolute percent error (MAPE) of 7 to 13% at six weeks, reflecting surprisingly good performance despite the complexities of modelling human behavioural responses and government interventions. Median absolute error for peak timing increased from 8 days at one week of forecasting to 29 days at eight weeks and is similar for first and subsequent peaks. The framework and public codebase (https://github.com/pyliu47/covidcompare) can be used to compare predictions and evaluate predictive performance going forward.
Forecasts and alternative scenarios of COVID-19 mortality have been critical inputs into a range of policies and decision-makers need information about predictive performance. We identified n=386 public COVID-19 forecasting models and included n=8 that were global in scope and provided public, date-versioned forecasts. For each, we examined the median absolute percent error (MAPE) compared to subsequently observed mortality trends, stratified by weeks of extrapolation, world region, and month of model estimation. Models were also assessed for ability to predict the timing of peak daily mortality. The MAPE among models released in July rose from 1.8% at one week of extrapolation to 24.6% at twelve weeks. The MAPE at six weeks were the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa (34.8%), and the lowest in high-income countries (6.3%). At the global level, several models had about 10% MAPE at six weeks, showing surprisingly good performance despite the complexities of modelling human behavioural responses and government interventions. The framework and publicly available codebase presented here ( https://github.com/pyliu47/covidcompare ) can be routinely used to compare predictions and evaluate predictive performance in an ongoing fashion.
I. The West. By R. Congreve.--II. England and France. By F. Harrison.--III. England and the sea. By E.S. Beesly.--IV. England and India. By E.H. Pember.--V. England and China. By J.H. Bridges.--VI. England and Japan. By C.A. Cookson.--VII. England and the uncivilised communities. By H.D. Hutton. ; Mode of access: Internet.
Expropriation is a hotly debated issue in international investment law. This is the first study to provide a detailed analysis of its norm-theoretical dimension, setting out the theoretical foundations underlying its understanding in contemporary legal scholarship and practice. Jörg Kammerhofer combines a doctrinal discussion with a theoretical analysis of the structure of the law in this area, undertaking a novel approach that critically re-evaluates existing case-law and writings. His approach critiques the arguments for a single expropriation norm based on custom, interpretation and arbitral precedents within international investment law, drawing also on generalist international legal thought, to show that both cosmopolitan and sovereigntist arguments are largely political, not legal. This innovative work will help scholars to understand the application of theory to investment law and help specialists in the field to improve their arguments.
Quatre organisations internationales européennes, une organisation à vocation universelle et trois organisations de caractère « occidental », s'efforcent de promouvoir ou de consolider la « détente » en développant les relations commerciales, culturelles ou techniques entre l'Europe de l'Ouest et l'Europe de l'Est. Chaque organisation a ses méthodes, ses objectifs et sa composition géographique. Mais toutes ces organisations ont un but commun : mettre en œuvre une coopération internationale qui atténue ou même efface les effets de la division de l'Europe. L'auteur dresse le bilan des résultats obtenus : ceux-ci dépendent de la nature de chaque organisation. Au printemps de 1968, des possibilités intéressantes commençaient à se dessiner, après des années de « guerre froide ». Au lendemain de l'affaire tchécoslovaque, que peut-il se passer ? Le développement des contacts techniques entre l'Est et l'Ouest a l'avantage de ne pas trop dépendre du contexte politique général. On peut donc en attendre, même dans des circonstances difficiles, une amélioration des relations entre les deux parties de l'Europe. L'Est ne peut y voir systématiquement des tentatives d'infiltration ou de subversion. Les efforts des organisations internationales européennes ne sont-pas toujours spectaculaires ; ils n'en sont pas moins nécessaires à la « détente ».
Teaching IR in the Philippines can best be understood in terms of an evolving process that has been significantly influenced by the country's colonial experience under the United States. The development of the field is largely contextualized as a part of the discipline of Political Science. The latter in turn was situated less as an academic field and more as preparatory course for those pursuing a law degree or a career in the colonial bureaucracy. However, greater attention is now being paid to academic pursuit as an objective of higher education in the Philippines—and the consequent attention to more theoretical research and the teaching of IR as a field of study not completely beholden to the need to produce bureaucrats and technocrats for foreign policy work. There is an increasing diversity in the types of research interests pursued by IR scholars in the country. This diversity ranges from the expansion of the issues being explored to a special focus on widening the theoretical and methodological approaches that local scholars adopt. At the same time, however, the field continues to be embedded in its antecedent purpose of providing training for aspiring diplomats and foreign-policy bureaucrats. The evolution of IR in the Philippines, and the subsequent direction of the field, continue to be influenced by its historical antecedents and its emphasis on a pragmatic appreciation of what needs to be understood through the study of IR. (Contemp Southeast Asia/GIGA)
