Version of trend for the future: events of wild cards as a result of the American strategy of China's congagement ; ВАРІАНТ ТРЕНДУ НА МАЙБУТНЄ: ПОДІЇ ДИКИХ КАРТ ЯК НАСЛІДОК АМЕРИКАНСЬКОЇ СТРАТЕГІЇ СТРИМУВАННЯ ТА ЗАЛУЧЕННЯ КИТАЮ
The genesis of the U.S. congagement strategy toward China falls on the end of XX - beginning of XXI century, when members of the RAND corporation arranged to join the polar tactics – containment and engagement – into one strategy. Strategic partnership relations between the USA and China are developing by ascending line because of engagement policy when politics of the United States acquires the features of MFN for China. Then the Celestial Empire is gaining strength, beginning to threaten the U.S. national interests. Accordingly, the vector of American policy is changing, it goes into a stage of containment. At this time, activization of partnership between the PRC and other big powers, in particular with Russia, becomes logical. Due to this, the official Beijing gets profit, including the necessary technology already from the other partners, viz., from the key allies of the United States. Such U.S. pendulum policy may cause the wild cards events when Americans fail, or vice versa – China loses due to the collapse.The ultimate goal of the congagement strategy developer will not be achieved under the conditions both win of the Celestial Empire and its decline. The purpose of the strategy – to restrain China's growth at a safe level for the USA, not destroy it because of its need for economy of the United States. However, pursuing policy of congagement, playing in contrast, the USA and the PRC could lose their key positions because they do not notice the weak signals of new powers. ; У статті розглянуто один з ймовірних майбутніх трендів, а саме, події диких карт як наслідок американської стратегії стримування та залучення Китаю. Розкрито основні причини появи неочікуваних стратегій та окреслено деякі слабкі сигнали, котрі вказують на можливість зміни міжнародної системи.