Suchergebnisse

The topic is time-relevant, since today there is a strong need to find indicators showing a development path for countries after the pandemics of 2020 in specific regions of the world. This paper makes an attempt to create an indicator that is different and more representative of the BRICS than the indexes already in existence. The BRICS index offered here is a capitalisation-weighted average of daily quotations for the listed stocks which dynamics highly correlate with each other. The purpose of developing such an index is to monitor a general growth pattern of the BRICS' economies and their corporations on the financial markets, both domestically and regionally, since they are at the core of the regions, they are in. The introduction of the BRICS index to the financial market can help increase investors' appetite for the assets. It will make it easier to analyze the stock markets of the BRICS as well. The significance of such a rating is that it may lay the foundation for working out a trading strategy to deal in the stocks of the BRICS companies to get optimal returns. The BRICS stocks index can also be an indicator of regional development for countries dependent on the BRICS, as well as the product of financial engineering which may help attract investors and other professionals working on the financial market to accumulate growth and recovery funds for the trouble countries of the region

Purpose of this study: In the aggregate industrial sector, government intervention to influence demand within the economy is generally counterproductive, while the optimal policy is to concentrate on supply-side reforms that help the economy become efficient. The objective of this study was to construct a unique industry cycle indicator for Bangladeshi aggregate firms within this industrial sector. The specific objectives were to assemble a unique industry cycle indicator which recommends early signals of a firm's industrial vulnerability, identify industry cycle indicator turning points and evaluate the predictive performance of the industry. The industry cycle indicator model demonstrates the macroeconomic fluctuations in the industrial sector. Methodology: The industry cycle indicator was constructed following the approach of the Conference Board (2000). The result wasthen tested for robustness with a macro-stress test. Lagged independent variables were used in this study to allow early predictions by the ICI for the year in which the financial crisis happened. Main Findings: The industry cycle indicator model underplays the role of aggregate industrial efficiency in influencing the economic cycle. By forecasting directional changes, this leading indicator allows policymakers to be made aware of revolutions in the financial industry and to undertake early precautionary steps to prevent vulnerability. Here, the constructed industry cycle indicator demonstrates a remarkable lead time of around 6 months for predictions and outperforms by the leading against the reference series. Research Limitations/Implications: The industry cycle indicator model rejects the Keynesian approach and also rejects monetarism. It tends to be associated with neo-classical economics. The ICI generally assumes that shocks to productivity lead to economic fluctuations. In other words, a temporary fall in output is an inevitable consequence of a drop in productivity within the industrial sector. It also leads to adjustments to this new ...

Abstract
Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. Using data on more than 100 million births from 1988 to 2014, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, there is a large and rapid fall in the growth rate of conceptions several quarters prior to economic decline. This newly emerging pattern appears in the aggregate data, as well as within individual states and in many European countries. Our findings suggest that fertility behaviour is more forward looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.

This paper attempts to evaluate the information content of money for the forecast of inflation, output, investment and consumption in the euro zone. It considers M1 and M3; a number of modifications to these aggregates is also proposed to enhance their forecast performance. The evaluation employs Granger-causality tests, stability tests and historical out-of-sample forecasts. On balance the information content of money appears to be rather limited. An improvement of the forecast is confined to the real variables and to the second half of the nineties. For the first half of the nineties the forecast performance of money is generally poor.

The article studies the dynamics of different macroeconomic indicators from the point of view of their forecasting ability in the Russian economy in the period of 2012-2016. The article considers the changes in such macro-indicators as benchmark interest rates, the curve of zero-coupon yield, government stock rates spread and inflation-adjusted money supply. In so doing, the article compares these indicators with their American analogues. The main point was to study the way the indicators were changing, the accuracy of their reflecting the economic situation and whether they should be applied to the Russian economy on the basis of foreign experience (for example, the "Index of Leading Indicators" published by the Conference Board). This issue has been in the focus of Russian and foreign authors as they try to construct the system of economic forecasting. The revealing of these forecasting instruments is a difficult process allowing for the significant number of various indicators and differing market conditions. As a result of the study, the authors uncovered that some of the proposed indicators reflect basic changes in economy as well they have significant forecasting abilities and can be 1-2 quarters ahead of the general situation on the market.

The efficiency of agricultural enterprises is determined by the synergistic influence of an entire set of various factors. Improvement and testing of methodological support for factor-complementary diagnostics of the level of economic efficiency of business entities in modern conditions is still an urgent issue. The purpose of this study was to comprehensively monitor the level of economic efficiency of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine and measure the degree of influence of priority factors on the aggregate efficiency indicator. The study involved several methods: abstract-logical, comparative analysis, tabular, statistical, matriX-coordinate method, calculation-constructive, monographic, factor analysis. It was established that during 2015 and 2021, this aggregate indicator increased by 47% – from 15.07 to 22.13 points. Among the factors that had a positive effect on the established growth of the overall indicator of economic efficiency, the largest rating coefficients have: an increase in labour productivity (1.5852), a more than two-fold increase in the amount of net profit of agricultural enterprises (1.0931), a 2.2-fold increase in the coefficient financing (0.905), a 1.9-fold increase in the loan capital turnover ratio (0.8754) and an almost 3-fold increase in its profitability (0.8587), an increase in the receivables turnover indeX (0.7899) and a two-fold increase in the absolute liquidity indeX (0.7500). The following influencing factors had the most negative effect on the level of the overall efficiency indicator: a 23% decrease in the fund return indicator (-0.6005), a 17% decrease in the quick liquidity ratio (-0.4944), a 26% deterioration in the profitability of fiXed assets (-0. 4642), a decrease in turnover and profitability of the equity capital of agricultural enterprises (-0.4653 and -0.4426, respectively). The practical significance of this study is determined by the improvement of methodological tools for measuring and diagnosing the aggregate level of economic efficiency of business entities, which can be useful in the management practice of organizing monitoring and developing areas for improving the economic efficiency of agricultural enterprises

Economic sentiment surveys are carried out by all European Union member states and are often seen as early indicators for future economic developments. Based on these surveys, the European Commission constructs an aggregate European Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). This paper compares the ESI with more sophisticated aggregation schemes based on statistical methods: dynamic factor analysis and partial least squares. The indicator based on partial least squares clearly outperforms the other two indicators in terms of comovement with economic activity. In terms of forecast ability, the ESI, constructed in a rather ad hoc way, can compete with the other indicators.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of monetary aggregate on economic indicators in the Eurozone. Cointegration this selected indicator monetary aggregate M3 is demonstrated in relation to the development of HICP, GDP, commodity prices and credits using Granger causality. Quarterly data between the years 1996 – 2017 are included in the analysis. Because we did not confirm the long-term relationship of the selected indicators, we continue with Granger causality. We found causal relationships between monetary aggregate M3 and GDP, HICP, commodity prices and credits. In all cases, the selected indicators have the opposite effect in Granger causality too. We also cannot definitely evaluate the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's monetary policy and cannot confirm the use of monetary aggregate M3 as an economic indicator of future economic development in the Eurozone. ; Cílem práce je analyzovat vliv peněžního agregátu M3 na ekonomické ukazatele v eurozóně. Kointegrace vybraného indikátoru měnového agregátu M3 je demonstrována ve vztahu k vývoji HICP, HDP, cen komodit a poskytnutých úvěrů za použití testů Grangerovy kauzality. V analýze jsou zahrnuty čtvrtletní údaje v letech 1996 - 2017. Na základě provedených testů jsme zjistili kauzální vztahy mezi měnovým agregátem M3 a HDP, HICP, cenami komodit a úvěry. Proto není možné hodnotit měnovou politiku Evropské centrální banky jako účinnou a nelze potvrdit použití měnového agregátu M3 jako vhodného ekonomického ukazatele pro predikci budoucího hospodářského vývoje v eurozóně.

We analyze several identification frameworks based on operating procedures to measure monetary policy in a small open economy. We use a two-stage non-recursive VAR model to identify monetary shocks. We construct then various overall monetary policy indicators based on different residuals treatments and report them as weighted sums of monetary policy variables. Finally, our model is applied to the Swiss National Bank. Our main indicator reveals that the exchange rate was the dominant variable at the end of the seventies. During the eighties, aggregates had their golden age, while in the nineties, the call rate showed up as operating variable.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the behaviour of the rate of increase in the money stock as a leading indicator of the Canadian economy over the period 1924–58. The study was suggested by work done by Milton Friedman for the United States showing that changes in the rate of increase in the stock of money lead changes in economic activity. Section I presents the theoretical framework underlying the concept of "leading monetary indicator." Section II presents the specific cycles of the seasonally adjusted rate of change in the Canadian stock of money and the relation of this series to Canadian reference cycles. Section III presents the conclusions. An appendix discusses the sources of the Canadian stock of money and its components.The quantity theory of money is the theoretical framework underlying the "leading monetary indicator" approach. This theory argues that the stock of money is an important determinant of economic activity. On this view individual non-bank holders of money cannot change its nominal quantity, but they can in the aggregate change the real value of their cash balances. Thus, holders of money may decide that they are holding excessive cash balances which they may individually attempt to reduce by an increase in their rate of spending. In the aggregate, however, they cannot do so for the money disposed of by one holder will be acquired by another so that the nominal stock of money will remain unchanged. The attempts by holders of money to reduce their nominal cash balances will raise the flow of expenditures and so money income and prices.