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There has been a long debate about whether speculators are stabilizing or not. We consider a model where speculators have a stabilizing role in normal times, but may also provoke large risk panics. The very feature that makes arbitrageurs liquidity providers in normal times, namely their tolerance of risk, enables a large increase in asset price risk during a financial panic. We show that a policy that discourages balance sheet risk reduces the magnitude of financial panics, as well as asset price risk in both normal and panic states.

During the 15 years prior to the global financial crisis the volume of securitized assets transacted in the US grew substantially, reflecting a change in the nature of the financial intermediation process. Together with increased securitization of assets, financial entities, who participate more heavily in the asset-backed security (ABS) market and hold a diversified portfolio of assets, have also become more relevant. As a result, the volume of securitization, although traditionally associated with credit markets, influences the outcomes of other asset markets. We investigate the link between securitization and asset prices and show that increases in the growth rate of the volume of ABS issuance lead to a decline in both the bond and equity premia. We then build a model of bank portfolio choice where the creation of synthetic securities may occur. The pooling and tranching of credit assets relaxes both the funding and the risk constraints financial entities face allowing them to increase balance sheet holdings. This increase in asset demand depresses the compensation for undertaking risk in the economy, confirming our empirical results. Crucially, we show that declines in the compensation for risk taking in equity and bonds due to securitization may not be related to a decline in actual risk.

Este trabajo analiza la relación entre el volumen de titulización de activos de crédito y los precios de bonos y acciones. Se muestra que aumentos en la tasa de crecimiento de titulización generan una disminución considerable en primas en el mercado de bonos y de renta variable. En un modelo teórico se demuestra que cuando los bancos seleccionan su cartera de activos y crean activos sintéticos, la compensación por la exposición al riesgo en la economía disminuye en la medida que aumenta la titulización. La agregación y la división en tramos de activos crediticios relajan tanto los costes de financiación como la exposición al riesgo de los bancos, lo que permite aumentar la cartera de activos a bancos que mantienen una cartera diversificada. Por tanto, es posible que la disminución de la prima de riesgo no identifique la verdadera disminución en la exposición al riesgo de los activos en el mercado de bonos y de renta variable ; We investigate the link between securitization and asset prices and show that increases in the growth rate of the volume of ABS issuance lead to a sizable decline in bond and equity premia. Furthermore, we show that in a model where banks select their portfolio of assets and create synthetic securities, the compensation for undertaking risk decreases as securitization increases. The pooling and tranching of credit assets relaxes both the funding and the risk constraints banks face allowing them to increase balance sheet holdings. Accordingly, the drop in risk premium may be unrelated to a decline in actual risk

We present a simple model of asset pricing in which payoff salience drives investors' demand for risky assets. The key implication is that extreme payoffs receive disproportionate weight in the market valuation of assets. The model accounts for several puzzles in finance in an intuitive way, including preference for assets with a chance of very high payoffs, an aggregate equity premium, and countercyclical variation in stock market returns.

We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. As a result, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to: (i) a contractionary effect of fiscal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding-out effects; (ii) a weakening of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in recent times; (iii) significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts; and (iv) an increase of the sensitivity of asset prices to fiscal policy shocks following the process of financial deregulation and mortgage liberalization. Finally, the evidence suggests that changes in equity prices may help governments towards consolidation of public finances. ; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - Programa Operacional Ciência e Inovação 2010 (POCI 2010) ; Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional ...

We assess the role played by scal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive scal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the e¤ect of scal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. As a result, the attempts of scal policy to mitigate stock price developments may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical ndings also point to: (i) a contractionary e¤ect of scal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding-out e¤ects; (ii) a weakening of the e¤ectiveness of scal policy in recent times; (iii) signi cant scal multiplier e¤ects in the context of severe housing busts; and (iv) an increase of the sensitivity of asset prices to scal policy shocks following the process of nancial deregulation and mortgage liberalization. Finally, the evidence suggests that changes in equity prices may help governments towards consolidation of public nances. ; COMPETE; QREN; UE Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia ...