Suchergebnisse

The mid-term review of the WTO Doha Round of trade negotiations held recently in Cancun was concluded in a premature fashion by the hosts. Participants were not moving forward towards a process that would see the talks move towards a final agreement in 2004. This was a disappointment for New Zealand because we rely strongly on the WTO multilateral framework to further liberalise world trade. This is especially so in agricultural products where it was hoped that after the modest beginnings of the Uruguay Round, signed in 1994, progress could be made more quickly. The stop/start negotiations of the Uruguay Round were not dissimilar. Cancun stumbled on the Singapore issues, and before agricultural proposals had been dealt with. This fortuitous situation provides an important opening for New Zealand agriculture but a great deal of work will need to be done. The other positive feature coming out of Cancun is that the slippage in timing is likely to be great (see below), so New Zealand has the time even with its modest resources, to influence the direction of the agricultural talks. NZIER hosted a Roundtable discussion on the opportunities and challenges that now confront New Zealand, yesterday in Wellington. Participants included representatives from private sector organisations, government ministries and research organisations. This short paper is a précis of the views expressed at that meeting and the valuable background material of the Washington based International Policy Council which Dr Thompson chairs. The discussion was aimed specifically at agricultural trade liberalisation efforts and focuses on the broad geo-political issues that are likely to be in play in the future.

Croatia recently signed several trade liberalisation agreements. The cornerstones of its trade policy are WTO membership, the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU and Croatia's application of membership as well as bilateral free trade agreements within the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impact of Croatia's agricultural trade policy on the agri-food sector. For the analysis, a partial equilibrium model based on 1999/2000 data is used. Trade between Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Slovenia, the EU-15 and the rest of the world is modelled for 12 product groups. Three liberalisation scenarios are analysed for the years 2002 and 2005. The scenarios differ with regard to the tariff changes. In general, the model results indicate that reciprocal trade liberalisation is welfare improving for Croatia. The increase in consumer welfare is larger than the decline in farmers' profits and the loss of governmental tariff revenues. In conclusion, the continuation of trade liberalisation is to be recommended. However, trade policy alone will not solve the existing problems of the agri-food sector, and transitional compensation measures could be considered to avoid unacceptable hardship. The benefits of trade liberalisation are primarily to be seen in an improved access to international markets, which probably enables Croatian food processors to realise economies of scale. In addition, internationally binding commitments such as trade agreements are likely to foster the internal and international political credibility and reduce political risks.