Suchergebnisse

As the Arab Spring unfolded and political unrest spread across the Arab world, Jordan faced an adverse economy as well. Fundamental to the economic challenge was high and rising energy prices, already heavily subsidized for consumers. With the government intent on staving off emerging political unrest through a series of measures, buffering consumers from increased energy prices being a key action, fiscal costs mounted. By 2012, subsidies on petroleum products alone were about 2.8 percent of GDP and 8.8 percent of government expenditures. At the same time, political unrest disrupted the supply of natural gas from Egypt and Jordan abruptly had to switch to using imported oil products (heavy fuel oil and diesel) to produce electricity. Consequently, the cost of producing electricity increased several folds. As the increased cost was not passed on to the consumers, National Electric Power company (NEPCO), bore all the increases in fuel prices and accumulate debt as a result. At approximately 17 percent of government expenditures and 5.5 percent of GDP in 2011, this was twice the amount of the petroleum subsidies. The chapter is organized as follows. Section two traces the evolution of subsidies in Jordan in recent times. The distributional impacts of reform would depend on how important the subsidized items are to consumers in terms of their expenditures on those items. Section three discusses this question from the perspective of richer and poorer households. The distributional impacts of reform would of course not only depend on how much consumers spend on the subsidized items but also on the extent of price changes. Sections four and five simulate direct and indirect impacts of potential reform scenarios across the income distribution. From this discussion, in section six the chapter moves onto considering how reforms are weighed down by vexing political economy constraints. In MENA countries, universal subsidies have been in place as part of the government's role in ensuring stability in the lives of the people and doing away with them is not straightforward.

Agglomeration economies are among the most important factors in increasing firm productivity. However, there is little evidence supportive of this in Africa. Using the firm registry database in Tanzania, this paper examines a new application of the logit approach with two empirical issues taken into account: spatial autocorrelation and endogeneity of infrastructure placement. The paper finds significant agglomeration economies. It is also found that firms are more likely to be located where local connectivity and access to markets are good. The paper finds that dealing with infrastructure endogeneity and spatial autocorrelation in the empirical model is important. According to the exogeneity test, infrastructure variables are likely endogenous. The spatial autoregressive term is significant. As expected, therefore, there are positive externalities of firm location choice around the neighboring areas.

Income growth in emerging economies has often been cited as a key driver of the past decade's com-modity price boom—the longest and broadest boom since World War II. This paper shows that income has a negative and highly significant effect on real food commodity prices, a finding that is consistent with Engel's Law and Kindleberger's thesis, the predecessors of the Prebisch-Singer hypothe-sis. The paper also shows that, in the long run, income influences real food prices mainly through the manufacturing price channel (the deflator), hence weakening the view that income growth exerts strong upward pressure on food prices. Other (short-term) drivers of food prices include energy costs, inventories, and monetary conditions.

Despite recent calls in support of cash transfers, there is little rigorous evidence of the relative impacts of cash versus in-kind transfers, especially in humanitarian contexts, where a majority of such programs take place. This paper uses data from a randomized experiment in the Democratic Republic of Congo to assess the relative impacts and costs of equivalently valued cash and voucher transfers. The voucher program distorted households' purchases along both the extensive and intensive margin as compared with unconstrained cash households. Yet there were no differences in food consumption or other measures of well-being, in part due to the fact that voucher households were able to resell part of what they purchased. As there were no significant benefits to vouchers, cash transfers were the more cost effective modality for both the implementing agency and program recipients in this context.

Facing a fiscal crisis, Jordan initiated substantial petroleum subsidy reforms in 2012. The government has also long contemplated how to cut electricity subsidies, which surpass the fiscal burdens imposed by the petroleum subsidies. This paper estimates the impacts of the 2012 petroleum subsidies reform on household welfare and government revenues. It also simulates the distributional and fiscal impacts from ending subsidies in the electricity sector, where the pricing structure is more complex than petroleum prices. The paper looks at the direct and indirect impacts of reform. Moreover, the paper discusses the political economy considerations of reform. While the full removal of petroleum subsidies would have increased poverty, the compensatory cash transfer program the government instituted is estimated to have fully offset the negative impact for the poorer population. The impact of reforms in the electricity sector will depend significantly on the implementation method chosen. A flat increase of tariffs toward cost recovery will put a huge burden on the poorest households. However, a progressive increase in tariffs will generate substantial savings for the government, even with compensatory mechanisms to mitigate the strong negative impact on the vulnerable population. The immediate compensation of the losers from reform appears to be a crucial factor in the successful implementation of reforms in Jordan.

Legislation based on international standards and harmonized between trade partners facilitates trade and enables products from developing countries to be competitive in the international market. Countries looking to export to the EU should aim to harmonize legislation with EU rules. If exporting to EU markets is not a priority, countries should follow requirements of the WTO SPS agreement and thus ensure that their products can access markets of all WTO member states. Both the EU and WTO legislative models for food safety require a risk-based approach to food safety controls, prioritizing funds and activity on the most risky areas. Reforms in this area should be primarily focused on ensuring food safety, although ensuring that consumers are receiving the quality of food that they expect is also a consideration. When planning legislative reform, the burden on business should be carefully considered, and consultation with the business community is strongly recommended to obtain a good understanding of the business perspective. Public awareness on the need for reforms can be important and it is essential to outline the benefits of improved food safety legislation to consumers and their representative bodies as they can help to support reforms and sustain their results.

This policy paper records the outcome of a strategic analysis of investment requirements in the water sector in Zimbabwe as of December 2013. The work, entitled Zimbabwe water sector investment analysis, was undertaken in close collaboration with senior officials in Zimbabwe as an exercise in determining where World Bank investments may be most effective in the future, and to assist the government of Zimbabwe to develop its own investment strategies. The analysis was framed around two key questions: (1) what immediate investments are required to ensure that water in sufficient quantity and at adequate quality will be available to underpin recovery? This is in order to ensure that water availability would not constitute a constraint to future growth and development; and (2) where in the water sector should the next dollar be best spent? This paper summarizes the context of the water sector in Zimbabwe at the time of the study and reflects the key elements of policy advice derived from the analysis. It is important to record and recognize the key elements of policy advice provided by the World Bank through the water sector investment analysis.

This report, produced within the framework of a 2011 agreement between the Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement (MEDDTL) and the Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), provides an overview and economic and geologic outlooks of the global lithium market. It is in line with both the economic issues around the access of European and French companies to raw materials -whose prices have experienced a worrying global uptrend for a decade-, and less cyclically with the authorities' demand for information about current developments in the world of raw materials (thereby, the Committee for Strategic Metals-COMES during its inaugural thematic seminar in December 2012 had chosen lithium as the substance and this report had then provided a exchanges between participants). The report begins with a summary. After a presentation of the substance, the subject of a second section, it deals in turn with the state of current and future uses and global demand for lithium. The fourth section lays out the state of current and future global lithium supply. Supply issues are inseparable from the examination of lithium production sources and processes, resources and reserves as well as their spatial distribution, technical substitutions and recycling. In a fifth section, we examine lithium prices, their evolution and, for information, the financialization around this substance. A sixth section recaps the current and possible global and French industrial players in the production, recycling and use of lithium for the production of semi-final or final goods. In the seventh section, the data from the Ministry of the Economy and Finance concerning French international trade in lithium as well as semi-final or final lithium-based products are reproduced. Finally, on the basis of a survey by the Compagnie Européenne d'Intelligence Stratégique (CEIS) a qualitative assessment of the issue of criticality of the substance for the French economy is provided. Additional quantitative ...

This report, produced within the framework of a 2011 agreement between the Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement (MEDDTL) and the Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), provides an overview and economic and geologic outlooks of the global lithium market. It is in line with both the economic issues around the access of European and French companies to raw materials -whose prices have experienced a worrying global uptrend for a decade-, and less cyclically with the authorities' demand for information about current developments in the world of raw materials (thereby, the Committee for Strategic Metals-COMES during its inaugural thematic seminar in December 2012 had chosen lithium as the substance and this report had then provided a exchanges between participants). The report begins with a summary. After a presentation of the substance, the subject of a second section, it deals in turn with the state of current and future uses and global demand for lithium. The fourth section lays out the state of current and future global lithium supply. Supply issues are inseparable from the examination of lithium production sources and processes, resources and reserves as well as their spatial distribution, technical substitutions and recycling. In a fifth section, we examine lithium prices, their evolution and, for information, the financialization around this substance. A sixth section recaps the current and possible global and French industrial players in the production, recycling and use of lithium for the production of semi-final or final goods. In the seventh section, the data from the Ministry of the Economy and Finance concerning French international trade in lithium as well as semi-final or final lithium-based products are reproduced. Finally, on the basis of a survey by the Compagnie Européenne d'Intelligence Stratégique (CEIS) a qualitative assessment of the issue of criticality of the substance for the French economy is provided. Additional quantitative ...

This report, produced within the framework of a 2011 agreement between the Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement (MEDDTL) and the Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), provides an overview and economic and geologic outlooks of the global lithium market. It is in line with both the economic issues around the access of European and French companies to raw materials -whose prices have experienced a worrying global uptrend for a decade-, and less cyclically with the authorities' demand for information about current developments in the world of raw materials (thereby, the Committee for Strategic Metals-COMES during its inaugural thematic seminar in December 2012 had chosen lithium as the substance and this report had then provided a exchanges between participants). The report begins with a summary. After a presentation of the substance, the subject of a second section, it deals in turn with the state of current and future uses and global demand for lithium. The fourth section lays out the state of current and future global lithium supply. Supply issues are inseparable from the examination of lithium production sources and processes, resources and reserves as well as their spatial distribution, technical substitutions and recycling. In a fifth section, we examine lithium prices, their evolution and, for information, the financialization around this substance. A sixth section recaps the current and possible global and French industrial players in the production, recycling and use of lithium for the production of semi-final or final goods. In the seventh section, the data from the Ministry of the Economy and Finance concerning French international trade in lithium as well as semi-final or final lithium-based products are reproduced. Finally, on the basis of a survey by the Compagnie Européenne d'Intelligence Stratégique (CEIS) a qualitative assessment of the issue of criticality of the substance for the French economy is provided. Additional quantitative ...

This report, produced within the framework of a 2011 agreement between the Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable, des Transports et du Logement (MEDDTL) and the Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), provides an overview and economic and geologic outlooks of the global lithium market. It is in line with both the economic issues around the access of European and French companies to raw materials -whose prices have experienced a worrying global uptrend for a decade-, and less cyclically with the authorities' demand for information about current developments in the world of raw materials (thereby, the Committee for Strategic Metals-COMES during its inaugural thematic seminar in December 2012 had chosen lithium as the substance and this report had then provided a exchanges between participants). The report begins with a summary. After a presentation of the substance, the subject of a second section, it deals in turn with the state of current and future uses and global demand for lithium. The fourth section lays out the state of current and future global lithium supply. Supply issues are inseparable from the examination of lithium production sources and processes, resources and reserves as well as their spatial distribution, technical substitutions and recycling. In a fifth section, we examine lithium prices, their evolution and, for information, the financialization around this substance. A sixth section recaps the current and possible global and French industrial players in the production, recycling and use of lithium for the production of semi-final or final goods. In the seventh section, the data from the Ministry of the Economy and Finance concerning French international trade in lithium as well as semi-final or final lithium-based products are reproduced. Finally, on the basis of a survey by the Compagnie Européenne d'Intelligence Stratégique (CEIS) a qualitative assessment of the issue of criticality of the substance for the French economy is provided. Additional quantitative ...

In the past two decades, research on the informal sector has emphasized the heterogeneity of this part of the economy, example in terms of entry costs, firm size, and access to credit, forward- and backward linkages as well as human and physical capital endowments. Yet, not much research has investigated the causes of this heterogeneity and the implied inefficiencies. This is true in particular for Sub-Saharan Africa, where informality dominates urban labor markets. Understanding these causes and the implied inefficiencies is however necessary to design policy interventions that are able to remove the most binding constraints for informal entrepreneurs. This note summarizes the main findings and policy conclusions from a research project that analyzes the quantitative importance of various constraints to informal enterprises in West Africa and Madagascar.

The rebound in tourism experienced since August 2009 seems to have been sustained, auguring well for a sizeable recovery this year from the slump of 2009. Despite having posted better-than-expected fiscal results in the first half of the year, the country will be hard-pressed to sustain this in the medium term. However, despite the challenges, the government remains steadfastly committed to fiscal consolidation. Monetary policy has been made more conducive to sustaining both domestic stability and external stability. Inflation pressures remain modest, with the introduction of non-monetary financing of the deficit. However, the country's turbulent political environment persists, complicating forecasts of future outcomes. The ambitious task of fiscal consolidation and the establishment of macro stability require much political bi-partisanship and cooperation.

The recent worsening of the financial crisis in the United States and the contagion to the world real economy are adding pressures for Mongolia to address macroeconomic imbalances. In particular, the fall in copper prices and the shortage of liquidities worldwide will imply a slowdown of global economic growth, lower copper prices, and reduced foreign direct investment (FDI). The implications for Mongolia, a larger current account deficit, much lower government revenues, and continued large investment needs, will pose significant policy challenges for the new government to maintain growth while lowering inflation. Fiscal tightening will be a key to prevent inflation from permanently affecting expectations and to reduce the current account deficit. This includes no further increase in public wages, no further increase in universal cash transfers, and a prioritized investment program limited to what the absorptive capacity of the economy can bear. Fiscal space should be kept for a targeted social safety net to protect the most vulnerable. Reducing inflation is always painful, but the slower the authorities react, the more protracted the process is, with deeper impact in economic activity, employment and poverty.