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Introduction --. - 1. IBN KHALDUN'S 'ASABIYYA AND THE CYCLE OF FEAR. A Definition of 'Asabiyya and its Sectarian Dimension; How a Group Develops High 'Asabiyya; The Nature and Influence of a Group with High 'Asabiyya; How a Dynasty Maintains 'Asabiyya; Variables for the Success of a Dynasty; How a Group's 'Asabiyya Declines --. - 2. ORIGINS. Foundations of the Sect; Golden Period; Becoming Ibna' al-Jabal (Sons of the Mountain); Fatwas and Officialdom; Ottoman Rule: Continued Alawite Marginalization --. - 3. INTEGRATION. Saving Alawite 'Souls'; New Horizons; Resistance and Receptivity; Artificial Integration; Genuine Integration?; Independent Syria and the 'Problem' of Pluralism; Suspicions of Sectarianism; Alawites Ascendant --. - 4. APOGEE & DECLINE. Early Asad Rule; The Muslim Brotherhood Rebellion; The Hama Tragedy; The Spoils of Power; Struggle for the Asad Dynasty; The Alawite-Iranian Axis; Preparing for Succession --. - 5. RAPID DESCENT. A Modernising Reformer?; New Challenges; Losing Lebanon; Regime Consolidation and Isolation; Alawite Socio-Economic Conditions under Bashar al-Asad; The 'Precarious' Security of the Lebanese Alawites --. - 6. RUMBLINGS OF REVOLUTION. Regime Restoration; Elite Infighting; A Confident Bashar al-Asad; Rising Internal Challenges; A Rising Islamic Tide?; Integration at Last? --. - Conclusion --

Samar Yazbek, a Syrian writer and TV presenter, was detained -- kidnapped, she would say -- not long after the outbreak of the Syrian uprising. She was brought to one of the prisons run by the Mukhabarat intelligence service, blindfolded and taken down to the bowels of the building. Adapted from the source document.

An independent Croatia is now a reality and soon to become a member of the European Union. For that matter we also have states of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo. And the Former Soviet Union has broken up into its constituent republics. Could we then see similar developments in the Arab world? As someone who has lived in the Balkans and the Middle East, and served the United Nations in both regions, I would not rule it out. Adapted from the source document.