This paper aims at examining how democratization in post-uprising Egypt remains flawed and the reasons for this failure. As a background, democratization in post-Arab Spring Egypt has collapsed and it seems now merely an illusion. The situation worsened since Egypt's democratically elected President Morsi was expelled from office through a coup, following mass protests demanding Morsi's discharge. Egypt's democratization is hard to achieve due to the shadow of the Pharaoh in Egypt, that is, entrenched ruling elites; Egypt's democratization process can never succeed while Egypt's old ruling elites are reluctant to allow this to happen. ; This paper aims at examining how democratization in post-uprising Egypt remains flawed and the reasons for this failure. As a background, democratization in post-Arab Spring Egypt has collapsed and it seems now merely an illusion. The situation worsened since Egypt's democratically elected President Morsi was expelled from office through a coup, following mass protests demanding Morsi's discharge. Egypt's democratization is hard to achieve due to the shadow of the Pharaoh in Egypt, that is, entrenched ruling elites; Egypt's democratization process can never succeed while Egypt's old ruling elites are reluctant to allow this to happen.
Članak problematizira demokratski karakter Države Izrael i uspoređuje ga sa stvarnim stanjem stvari. Proturječnost određenja Izraela kao "židovske i demokratske" države već je u samom začetku stvaranja prouzročila određene karakteristike koje su teško usporedive sa zapadnim liberalnim demokracijama. Izrael se takvim pokušava prikazati usprkos očiglednom nepovoljnom položaju arapske manjine koja danas čini približno 20 posto stanovništva. Taj se položaj izraelskih Arapa odražava ne samo na status manjine u Izraelu već i na geopolitičku situaciju na prostoru Izraela i Zapadne Obale. Status Palestinaca može se iščitati iz svakodnevne političke prakse, ali i iz temeljnih dokumenata i zakonodavstva Države Izrael. Segregacija stanovništva prema vjerskom određenju čini nevidljivi zid unutar samog izraelskog društva. ; The article deals with the declared democratic character of the State of Israel and compares it with the real state of affairs. The contradiction present in the definition of Israel as "Jewish and democratic" has from its very beginning created certain characteristics of the State that are hardly comparable with western liberal democracy. Israel is striving to present itself as such despite the obvious adverse position of the Arab minority, comprising around 20 per cent of the population. This position of the Israeli Arabs reflects itself not only on the status of the minority, but also on the entire geopolitical situation in Israel and the West Bank as well. The status of the Palestinians in Israel can be deducted from the everyday political practice as well as from the fundamental documents and legislation of the State of Israel. The segregation of population according to religion makes for an invisible wall within the Israeli society.
U članku su opisane ključne ranoislamske tradicije prema kojima se Jeruzalem smatra trećim po važnosti svetim gradom u islamu. Iz perspektive vjerskih, međuvjerskih, političkih i povijesnih okolnosti analiziran je njihov sadržaj te su razmotreni mogući razlozi za nastanak tih tradicija. Pozornost je posvećena tekstualnim i materijalnim vrelima, razini njihove autentičnosti, datiranju, te njihovu tumačenju od strane uglednih orijentalista i povjesničara umjetnosti. U članku su obrađene pojedinačne teme, kao što je Jeruzalem u islamskim kanonskim tekstovima, Muhamedovo noćno putovanje u el-Aksu, legende o Omarovu osvajanju Jeruzalema, imena Jeruzalema u djelima ranoislamskih ljetopisaca, uloga Židova i židovskih obraćenika u nastanku ranoislamskih tradicija te izgradnja, ukrasi, inskripcije i simbolika Kupole nad Stijenom. Autor u zaključku razmatra pitanje u kolikoj je mjeri religijsko čašćenje Jeruzalema u islamu povezano s autohtonim ranoislamskim vjerskim tradicijama, a u kojoj s ranom muslimansko-židovskom interakcijom te političkim procesima, od unutarislamskoga raskola u vrijeme prelaska rašidunske vlasti na umajadsku i Abdul-Malikova sukoba s hidžaskim kalifom el-Zubeirom, preko Križarskih ratova, do današnjega arapsko-izraelskog sukoba. ; The article describes major early Islamic traditions in which Jerusalem has been designated as the third holiest city in Islam. Their content has been analyzed based on the historical context and religious, inter-religious and political circumstances in which they were forged. Particular attention has been paid to textual and material sources, their authenticity, dating and their interpretation by prominent orientalists and art historians. The article addresses specific themes, such as Jerusalem in Islamic canonical texts, Muhammad's Night Journey to al-Aqṣā, the legends of Caliph 'Umar's conquest of Jerusalem, names for Jerusalem in Early Islamic chronicles, the influence of Jews and Jewish converts on early Islamic traditions, and the construction, symbolism, ornaments, and inscriptions of the Dome of the Rock. In the concluding remarks the author considers the question of to what degree attributing holiness to Jerusalem in Islam has been based on autochthonous early Islamic religious traditions, and to what degree on Muslim-Jewish interaction in Palestine, political processes, such as fitnah during early Umayyad rule, 'Abd al-Malik's struggle with Caliph Ibn al-Zubayr in the Hejaz, the Crusades, and the present-day Arab-Israeli conflict.
Iako je demokracija u Izraelu održiva i stabilna, ne odgovara ni jednoj od postojećih zapadnih vrsta demokracije. Izrael je tipično podijeljeno društvo čiji su politički sustav i društvena struktura ostatku svijeta često slabo razumljivi. Ovaj rad predstavlja kratku analizu, utemeljenu na teorijskim okvirima i tipološkome smještaju demokracije koja je u uskoj svezi s društvenim rascjepima izraelskoga društva. U radu se ispituje je li se demokracija u Izraelu razvijala tako da olakša upravljanje društvenim podjelama te jesu li se njome ublažili ili ojačali društveni rascjepi. ; Although democracy in Israel is sustainable and stable, it does not match any of the western types of democracy. Israel is a typical divided society whose political system and social structure do not often make a great deal of sense for the rest of the world. This paper represents a brief analysis, based on theoretical frameworks and typological placement of democracy which is closely connected to social rifts of the Israeli society. The paper investigates if democracy in Israel was being developed in order to facilitates the social divisions management and if it alleviated or strengthened social rifts.
U ovom radu istražuje se veza između gospodarskog rasta i razvoja tržišta dionica u regiji GCC, a to je Vijeće za suradnju arapskih država Zaljeva, odnosno Saudijske Arabije, Bahreina, Ujedinjenih Arapskih Emirata, Omana, Kuvajta i Katara u razdoblju od 2000. do 2017. godine. Generalizirani linearni mješoviti model (GLMM) primjenjuje se kako bi se utvrdila povezanost i priroda odnosa. U usporedbi s konvencionalnim regresijskim modelima, GLMM pruža pouzdanije rezultate uzimajući u obzir podatke koji nedostaju i uklanja razlike specifične za pojedine zemlje. Ovim istraživanjem se potvrđuje značajna pozitivna povezanost između likvidnosti na burzi (SML) i realnog bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP) po stanovniku, kao i da je negativna povezanost između tržišne kapitalizacije (SMC) i BDP-a dugoročno beznačajna. Rezultati također ukazuju da su SML i SMC značajno i pozitivno povezani. Uzimajući u obzir da uspješne burze mogu povećati nacionalno bogatstvo, smanjiti preveliku ovisnost o nafti kao glavnom faktoru gospodarskog rasta, rezultati sugeriraju da bi kreatori politike u regiji trebali imati aktivniju ulogu u stimuliranju svojih tržišta dionica uključujući i globalnu integraciju. ; This paper attempts to test the relationship between economic growth and equity market development in GCC region which is the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, namely, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar over the period of 2000 and 2017. The Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) is adopted to find the nexus and the nature of the relationship. Compared to the conventional regression models, GLMM provides a more reliable conclusion accounting for the missing data and eliminate the country specific differences. The study finds a significant positive association between stock market liquidity (SML) and per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) but insignificant negative association between stock market capitalization (SMC) and GDP in the long run. The results also indicate that SML and SMC are significantly and positively correlated. Considering well-performing stock markets can enhance the nation's wealth, reduce the over-dependence on oil as a major contributor to the economic growth, the results suggest that policy makers in the region ought to play more active role to stimulate their equity markets together with global integration.
Temeljno pitanje na koje ovaj rad pokušava dati odgovor jest zašto je demokratska transformacija bila uspješna u Tunisu, a u Egiptu i Alžiru nije. Istraživanju je primarno pristupljeno sa stajališta deskriptivno-empirijskih teorija aktera, iako su korištene i kulturalističke teorije kako bi se bolje razumjele političke ideje i stavovi islamističkih aktera. Strategija istraživanja je fokusirana komparativna studija triju slučajeva – Tunisa, Egipta i Alžira – odnosno intraregionalna komparativna studija, budući da je riječ o zemljama koje pripadaju podregiji Sjeverne Afrike kao podsustavu regije Bliskog istoka. Komparativna studija ima različite ishode na ovisnoj varijabli kako bi se izbjegla neprirodna selekcijska pristranost te postigao kvazieksperimentalan efekt. Hipoteza koja je ponuđena glasi da je Tunis imao mekši civilni autoritarni režim koji je dopuštao interakciju i suradnju oporbenih i režimskih elita, a što je rezultiralo političkim dogovorom te, posljedično, uspješnom demokratskom tranzicijom. U slučaju Egipta i Alžira interakcija oporbenih i režimskih elita imala je prvenstveno oblik sukoba te je izostao politički dogovor, a time i demokratska tranzicija. Neovisne varijable koje su izolirane u teorijskoj raspravi jesu: karakter prethodnog autoritarnog režima, uloga vojske, tip opozicije i vlasti, obrasci interakcije opozicije i vlasti, obrasci tranzicije u demokraciju. Uz te varijable, analiza obuhvaća i kolonijalno razdoblje koje je bitno zato što pokazuje jesu li te zemlje imale neko prethodno demokratsko iskustvo, je li ono imalo neki utjecaj na kasniju demokratizaciju, kakve su političke elite nastale u tom razdoblju i, konzekventno, kakav su oblik autoritarnog sustava kasnije izgradile. Iz analize proizlazi zaključak da je glavna hipoteza potvrđena. Tunis je bio "mekši" autoritarni režim, što je omogućilo suradnju starih i novih elita koja je rezultirala političkim dogovorom, a time i uspješnom demokratskom tranzicijom. U Egiptu i Alžiru je sukob starih i novih elita onemogućio uspješnu demokratizaciju. ; The main question this thesis tries to provide an answer to is why democratic transformation was successful in Tunisia, but not in Egypt and Algeria. The research approach is primarily rooted in descriptive-empirical actor theories, although culturalist theories were used as well, as to better understand the political ideas and stances of Islamist actors. The research strategy is a focused comparative three-case-study – comprising Tunisia, Egypt, and Algeria – i.e. an intra-regional comparative study since these countries belong to the subregion of North Africa, which is a subsystem of the Middle Eastern region. The comparative study has different outcomes on the dependent variable, in order to avoid unnatural selection bias and achieve a quasi-experimental effect. The proposed hypothesis claims that Tunisia had a softer civilian authoritarian regime which permitted interaction and cooperation of opposition and regime elites, which resulted in a political agreement and, subsequently, a successful democratic transition. In the cases of Egypt and Algeria, the interaction of opposition and regime elites primarily took the form of conflict, with a lack of a political agreement, and thus democratic transition. The independent variables which were isolated in the theoretical discussion were the following: the character of the previous authoritarian regime, the role of the army, opposition and government type, patterns of opposition-government interaction, patterns of transition to democracy. In addition, the analysis encompasses the colonial period as well, which is important because it demonstrates whether these countries had the previous democratic experience, whether it had some influence on later democratization, what kinds of political elites emerged in that period and, consequently, what form of an authoritarian regime they later established. The analysis provides the conclusion that the main hypothesis was confirmed. Tunisia was a "softer" authoritarian regime, which had enabled the cooperation of old and new elites, which resulted in a political agreement, and thus a successful democratic transition. In Egypt and Algeria, the conflict of old and new elites prevented successful democratization.
Hibridno ratovanje ne predstavlja nov i revolucionaran pristup u ostvarivanju političkih ciljeva. Navedeno je temeljna pretpostavka ove doktorske disertacije koja je potvrĎena kroz znanstveno istraţivanje i komparativnu analizu tri studije slučaja. Pokušaj stvaranja Velike Srbije, zbog činjenice da se relativno nedavno odvijao na teritoriju Republike Hrvatske, najrelevantniji je slučaj kada govorimo o aktualnim vanjskopolitičkim i obrambenim izazovima Republike Hrvatske. Izraelsko-libanonski rat iz 2006. godine smatra se oglednim primjerkom hibridnog rata izmeĎu drţavnog i nedrţavnog aktera. Rat Rusije i Ukrajine i aneksija Krima najrecentniji je primjer hibridnog rata izmeĎu dva drţavna aktera, i katalizator koji je aktualizirao pojam hibridnog rata, pokrenuo meĎunarodnu zajednicu i NATO savez da preispitaju svoj pristup suvremenom ratovanju. Ova disertacija temelji na se razmatranju ratova s vojnopolitičkog stajališta, a kombiniranjem tri teorijska okvira odabrano je 16 čimbenika koji karakteriziraju hibridnog aktera. Teorijskom analizom sve tri studije slučaja potvrĎeno je da hibridnom ratu prethodi period političkih, ideoloških ili sličnih neslaganja izmeĎu suprotstavljenih strana, tijekom kojeg hibridni akter nastoji širiti vlastiti narativ i otvoreno ili prikriveno provodi aktivnosti koje će mu dati prednost u ratu. Provedbom istraţivanja u tri rata testirana je prisutnost svakog pojedinog čimbenika hibridnog modela, a komparacijom rezultata utvrĎeno je da su odreĎeni čimbenici bili, u većoj ili manjoj mjeri, prisutni u sva tri rata. Unatoč činjenici da slučajevi pripadaju različitom geopolitičkom kontekstu, da su se odvijali u različitom vremenskom razdoblju i na različitoj zemljopisnoj lokaciji, prisutnost čimbenika u sva tri rata potvrĎuju pretpostavku da hibridni rat nije ništa novo. ; Hybrid warfare does not represent a new and revolutionary approach to the realization of political goals. This is the central hypothesis of this doctoral dissertation which has been tested by scientific research and comparative analysis of three post Cold War, geographically and chronically dispersed case studies. The first case study encompasses the initial attempt to create a Greater Serbia at the territorial expense of the Republic of Croatia which occurred in the early 1990's within the context of Yugoslavia's dissolution. The second case study details the Israeli - Hezbollah war of 2006 which is considered by many to be a textbook example of a state versus non-state actor conflict. Finally, the third case study analyzes the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine (including the Russian annexation of Crimea) which has popularized the term "hybrid warfare" and acted as a catalyst in initiating NATO re-examination of its approach to contemporary security threats. This dissertation analyzes the manifestation of hybrid war from a military and political perspective, and to characterize hybrid actors, it makes use of sixteen individual factors derived from three established theoretical frameworks. Theoretical analysis of the three case studies suggests that in all three cases open warfare was preceded by a period of political, ideological or other conflict between the opposing parties. In all instances, the hybrid actor made use of this period to promulgate its narrative, while at the same time covertly or overtly undertaking activities designed to ensure an advantage upon the onset of violence. The presence of each individual factor of the combined theoretical framework was determined through research, and a comparison of the results proves that certain characteristics are present, in varying degree, in all three conflicts. Despite occurring in different geopolitical circumstances, in different chronological periods, and in different geographical locations, the presence of hybrid factors in all three conflicts confirms the initial hypothesis that hybrid warfare is not a new phenomenon.
