Suchergebnisse

U okviru borbe protiv negativnih posljedica globalne financijske krize iz 2008. godine Europska središnja banka (ECB) je pored tradicionalnih instrumenta monetarne politike u svrhu oporavka gospodarstva relativno rano počela provoditi i nestandardne mjere. Istodobno nakon krize dolazi do intenzivnog proučavanja makroprudencijalne politike i implementiranje njenih instrumenata. S druge strane, HNB je koristio makroprudencijalne instrumente i prije krize, međutim prvu nestandardnu mjeru monetarne politike implementirao je u ožujku 2020. Provedenim istraživanjem potvrdilo se kako je provedba monetarne politike i implementacija nestandardnih mjera pozitivno utjecala na oporavak gospodarstva. Analiza s primjenom deskriptivne statistike na razini EU pokazala je kako postoji značajna negativna korelacija između monetarnih agregata i stope nezaposlenosti. Provedena analiza u Hrvatskoj također pokazuje statistički značajnu negativnu korelaciju između ponude novca i stope nezaposlenosti. Međutim, analizirajući na razini EU i RH M2 monetarni agregat umanjen za novčanu masu M1 i stopu nezaposlenosti, vidljiva je jaka pozitivna korelacija, što znači da povećavanje štednje dovodi do porasta stope nezaposlenosti. Odnosi između inflacije i duga u BDP-u s ostalim varijablama su statistički nesignifikantni, kako na razini EU tako i u RH. ; As part of the fight against the negative consequences of the 2008 global financial crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB), in addition to traditional monetary policy instruments for the purpose of economic recovery, began to implement non-standard measures relatively early. At the same time, after the crisis, there is an intensive study of macroprudential policy and the implementation of its instruments. On the other hand, the Croatian National Bank (CNB) used macroprudential instruments even before the crisis, but the first non-standard monetary policy measure was implemented in March 2020. Proven research confirmed that the implementation of monetary policy and the implementation of non-standard measures had a positive impact on economic recovery. An analysis using descriptive statistics at EU level showed that there is a significant negative correlation between monetary aggregates and the unemployment rate. The conducted analysis in Croatia also shows a statistically significant negative correlation between the money supply and the unemployment rate. However, analyzing at the EU and Croatian level M2 the monetary aggregate reduced by the money supply M1 and the unemployment rate, a strong positive correlation is visible, which means that the increase in savings leads to an increase in the unemployment rate. The relations between inflation and debt in GDP with other variables are statistically insignificant both at the EU level and in the Republic of Croatia.

Svrha ovog rada je analizirati strukturalne i produktivne promjene zemalja srednje i istočne Europe (CEE). Razdoblje istraživanja obuhvaća godine nakon pristupanja Europskoj uniji, od 2004. do 2018. godine. Ova studija želi odgovoriti na sljedeće pitanje: Koji su učinci rezultat integracije s Europskom unijom u području produktivnosti? Analiza pokriva dvije glavne kategorije rasta produktivnosti rada: čisti rast produktivnosti rada i strukturalni rast produktivnosti rada. Nadalje, ispituju se čimbenici koji mogu utjecati na čiste i strukturne promjene produktivnosti. Glavne metode istraživanja primijenjene u ovom radu su analiza pomaka udjela i metode panel podataka. Analiza pokazuje da su se u promatranom razdoblju sve zemlje središnje i istočne Europe poboljšale i u smislu čiste i strukturalne produktivnosti. Međutim, utjecaj čiste produktivnosti rada bio je znatno manji od utjecaja strukturalne produktivnosti rada; to znači da se glavna promjena na razini produktivnosti više može pripisati promjenama u zapošljavanju između sektora, nego li modernizaciji tehnoloških procesa. Produktivnost se povećala u svim sektorima, ali najznačajniji rast dogodio se u uslužnim sektorima, posebno u financijskim i osiguravajućim djelatnostima i nekretninama. Istodobno, smanjila se zaposlenost u manje produktivnim sektorima, poput poljoprivrede, šumarstva i ribarstva. Nadalje, rezultati analize panel podataka potvrđuju značajan utjecaj procijenjenih faktora na čisti i strukturalni rast produktivnosti. Stoga, ukupna promjena produktivnosti na području Srednje i Istočne Europe može imati pozitivan utjecaj na oba oblika rasta produktivnosti. I strukturalni i čisti rast produktivnosti potiču ulaganje u istraživanje i razvoj, uvoz roba informacijske i komunikacijske tehnologije (IKT) i otvorenost trgovine. Nadalje, ovo istraživanje potvrđuje pozitivan utjecaj koje ima povećanje ulaganja u istraživanje i razvoj poslovnih poduzeća i porast broja istraživača na omjer radne snage na produktivnost sektora, iako postoje bitne razlike između sektora. Ovo istraživanje mogu koristiti vladine agencije u izradi politika industrijskog razvoja. ; The purpose of this paper is to analyse the structural and productivity changes of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The research period covers the years following accession into the European Union, from 2004 until 2018. This study aims to answer the following question: What effects have resulted from the integration with the European Union in terms of the sphere of productivity? The analysis covers two main categories of labour productivity growth: pure labour productivity growth and structural labour productivity growth. Moreover, factors that may affect both pure and structural productivity changes are examined. The main research techniques are shift-share analysis and panel data methods. The analysis shows that all the CEE countries in the studied period improved in terms of both pure and structural productivity. The impact of pure labour productivity, however, was much smaller than that of structural labour productivity; this means that the main change in productivity level was more attributable to changes in employment between sectors than to the modernisation of technological processes. Productivity increased in all sectors, but the most significant growth occurred in service sectors, specifically in financial and insurance activities and real estate activities. Simultaneously, employment decreased in less productive sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, and fishing. Furthermore, the results of the panel data analysis confirm a significant impact of the evaluated factors on pure and structural productivity growth. Thus, aggregate productivity change in the CEE area can have a positive impact on both forms of productivity growth. Both structural and pure productivity growth are stimulated by research and development expenditures, information and communication technology (ICT) goods imports, and trade openness. Moreover, this research confirms the positive impacts of business enterprise research and development expenditure growth and an increase in the number of researchers to the workforce ratio on sector productivity, although there are substantial differences between sectors. This research can be used by government agencies in establishing industrial development policies.

The Belt and Road Initiative proclaimed by President Xi in 2013, a strategy developed by the Chinese government, is very important to China but is not confined to China. In order for the initiative to be successful it needs to be embraced by the countries on the terrestrial and maritime route indicated in the plan. In the late 1980s Deng Xiaoping proposed to integrate Socialism with Chinese Characteristics (Zhongguo Tese Shehui Zhuyi,中国特色社国主国) into global capitalism and in the 1990s the Jiang Zemin leadership initiated the Going out policy (Zouchuqu Zhanlue, 走出去国略) – the current Belt and Road Initiative is China's continuation in implementing those policies into actual deeds. China's accession to WTO in 2001 marked China's full integration into the global economy and since then the People's Republic of China (PRC) has become the largest trading partner for more than 180 countries. The Xi-Li administration has been extremely proactive since it was established in 2012; from that year on, Chinese behavior in international affairs has gained an ever-growing role as a forger of economic and diplomatic ties between countries. The primary example of this behavior is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As every serious foreign policy plan, the BRI is an accumulation of various other initiatives. For example, the cooperation mechanism "16+1", with which the PRC has approached Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), can be integrated under the BRI. This paper analizes the "16+1" China-CEEC cooperation mechanism in the context of the bigger BRI initiative, and tries to comprehend the economic and political factors intertwined with its implementation. ; The Belt and Road Initiative proclaimed by President Xi in 2013, a strategy developed by the Chinese government, is very important to China but is not confined to China. In order for the initiative to be successful it needs to be embraced by the countries on the terrestrial and maritime route indicated in the plan. In the late 1980s Deng Xiaoping proposed to integrate Socialism with Chinese Characteristics (Zhongguo Tese Shehui Zhuyi,中国特色社国主国) into global capitalism and in the 1990s the Jiang Zemin leadership initiated the Going out policy (Zouchuqu Zhanlue, 走出去国略) – the current Belt and Road Initiative is China's continuation in implementing those policies into actual deeds. China's accession to WTO in 2001 marked China's full integration into the global economy and since then the People's Republic of China (PRC) has become the largest trading partner for more than 180 countries. The Xi-Li administration has been extremely proactive since it was established in 2012; from that year on, Chinese behavior in international affairs has gained an ever-growing role as a forger of economic and diplomatic ties between countries. The primary example of this behavior is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As every serious foreign policy plan, the BRI is an accumulation of various other initiatives. For example, the cooperation mechanism "16+1", with which the PRC has approached Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), can be integrated under the BRI. This paper analizes the "16+1" China-CEEC cooperation mechanism in the context of the bigger BRI initiative, and tries to comprehend the economic and political factors intertwined with its implementation.

Austro-Ugarska Monarhija, stvorena austrijsko-mađarskim kompromisom 1867. godine, bila je i za ondašnje pravnike neobična pojava, koja se nije uklapala u onodobnu državnopravnu tipologiju "složenih država". Bio je to rezultat stalnih sukobljavanja između austrijskih političkih krugova, koji su težili što jačoj integraciji pod habsburškim žezlom sjedinjenih entiteta s jedne strane, a s druge mađarskih političkih krugova, koji su težili što većoj, a neki i potpunoj državnoj samostalnosti Ugarske. Kako Ugarska nije smogla snage osnovati svoju nacionalnu banku (a koja bi tiskala i vlastite novčanice), to je Austrijska nacionalna banka 1878. postala Austro-ugarska banka, te je kao zajednička središnja banka imala skrbiti o zajedničkoj valuti, najprije austrijskoj forinti, a zatim austro-ugarskoj kruni, te tiskati zajedničke novčanice. Što zbog političkih razmimoilaženja, što zbog državnopravnih nejasnoća, zajedničke austrougarske novčanice bile su predmet sporova jer su im obje strane pridavale veliko simbolično značenje, a i po reakcijama javnosti vidljivo je koliko je važno bilo ovo pitanje. Kako bi predmet rada bio što razumljiviji, u uvodu je objašnjena problematika državnopravne prirode austro-ugarske državne sveze, a zatim su analizirane novčanice po kronološkom redu njihova puštanja u optjecaj (tri novčanice austrijskih forinti te devetnaest austro-ugarskih kruna). Ondje gdje je to bio slučaj opisane su katkad i burne reakcije javnosti kao pokazatelj političkih sukoba, koji su se javljali u Monarhiji, kojom je dominirao austrijsko-mađarski dualizam. ; Created by the Austro-Hungarian Compromise in 1867, the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy was an unusual construct even for the lawyers of that time, and did not fit into the then state-law typology of "complex states". It was the result of constant confrontations between Austrian political circles, which wanted to increase the integration of entities unified under the Habsburg crown, on the one hand, and on the other of Hungarian political circles, which aspired to the maximum, even to the complete state independence of Hungary. As Hungary did not have the strength to found its own national bank (which would issue its own banknotes), in 1878 the Austrian National Bank became the Austro- Hungarian Bank, and as the common central bank it was in charge of and issued the common currency, first the Austrian forint, and then the Austro-Hungarian krone. Partly because of political differences, partly because of constitutional vagueness, the common Austro-Hungarian banknotes were a subject of disputes because both sides gave them a great symbolical importance, and the reactions of the public show how important this issue was.

Prijetnja koja dotiče sadašnju Srednju Europu vezana je uz dvije skupine uzroka. Kao prvo, s politikom Rusije koja traži novo mjesto za sebe na globalnoj razini. Kao drugo, s krizom unutar same Unije, koja se većinom tiče zemalja Srednje Europe kao najmlađeg njezinog člana i onoga koji nosi postkomunistički teret. Geostrateški, ideološki i kulturološki aspekti povezani s prethodno spomenutim kompleksima prijetnje bit će predmet izlaganja na konferenciji. ; The threat that Central Europe faces nowadays is connected with two sets of causes. The first cause is Russian politics that attempts to establish a new position on a global level. And the second is the crisis within the Union, which has mainly affected Central European countries, their youngest members that still bear the post-communist burden. The paper focuses on geostrategic, ideological and cultural aspects regarding the abovementioned complex threat.

This paper considers the role of money, particularly the role of monetary analysis in monetary policy-making. During the last three decades, many central banks changed their monetary policy considerably. In the late 1970s, money & the long-run effects of its movements on inflation were in the center-stage of economic policy. Given the breakdown of the relationship between monetary aggregates & goal variables such as inflation, many countries in the world have recently adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy regime. The direct control of money supply lost importance. Central bankers operate in an environment of high uncertainty regarding the functioning of the economy. In such a complex environment, a single model or a limited set of indicators is not a sufficient guide for monetary policy. Monetary aggregates continue to be an important indicator variable, concludes the author. References. Adapted from the source document.

Rad istražuje suprotstavljenost geostrategija i geoekonomija u Središnjoj Aziji i regiji Kaspijskog jezera. Regije imaju stratešku važnost kad su posrijedi zalihe nafte i plina, koje predstavljaju i ugrozu regionalnoj sigurnosti. Nakon stoljeća ruske dominacije Središnja Azija postala je regijom s pet neovisnih država. Ruski je utjecaj u devedesetima oslabio; postupno se vratio, no dobio je suparnike. SAD i NR Kina počeli su natjecanje za zalihe nafte i plina u Središnjoj Aziji i regiji Kaspijskog jezera. Prisutnost SAD-a u Iraku i Afganistanu, vojne baze SAD-a, ruska prisutnost i vojne baze, rastući utjecaj Kine, blizina Irana i Turske regiji te vojna i ekonomska savezništva pokazuju da je Središnja Azija predmet suparništva velikih sila. Ravnoteža snaga, nestabilnost i borba za kontrolu nad zalihama nafte i plina znače da je počela nova "velika igra". ; The paper studies rivalry of geostrategies and geoeconomies in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region. These regions have strategic value, particularly considering oil and gas reserves, which also represent a peril to the regional security. After centuries of Russian dominance, Central Asia became a region with five independent states. The Russian influence declined in the 1990s, only to return gradually, but its rivals have shown up. The USA and China started a quest for Central Asian and Caspian Sea oil and gas. The US presence in Iraq, the US and NATO's presence in Afghanistan, US military bases, Russian presence and military bases, China's rising influence, Iran's and Turkey's proximity to the region, and military and economic alliances, show that Central Asia is an arena of great power rivalry. The balance of power, instability and struggle for control over oil and gas reserves mean that the new Great Game has started.

The post-communist NATO member states from Central and South-Eastern Europe (CSEE) comprise a group of 11 NATO/EU member states, from the Baltic to the Adriatic and Black Sea. The twelfth and thirteenth NATO member states from the region are Albania and Montenegro. The afore-mentioned NATO/EU member states have mostly shown a similar stance towards the Eastern Partnership Policy. However, since 2014, these states have shown more diverse stances, albeit declaratively supporting the anti-Russian sanctions. Due to the difference in stances towards Russia, the "New Cold Warriors" (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania) and the "Pragmatics" (Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Bulgaria), will maintain a mostly common course towards Russia and the Eastern Partnership states because they have to. The Czech Republic, although hosting a part of the US anti-ballistic missile shield, is not a genuine "New Cold Warrior", while in 2016 Croatia effectively became one. ; The post-communist NATO member states from Central and South-Eastern Europe (CSEE) comprise a group of 11 NATO/EU member states, from the Baltic to the Adriatic and Black Sea. The twelfth and thirteenth NATO member states from the region are Albania and Montenegro. The afore-mentioned NATO/EU member states have mostly shown a similar stance towards the Eastern Partnership Policy. However, since 2014, these states have shown more diverse stances, albeit declaratively supporting the anti-Russian sanctions. Due to the difference in stances towards Russia, the "New Cold Warriors" (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania) and the "Pragmatics" (Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Bulgaria), will maintain a mostly common course towards Russia and the Eastern Partnership states because they have to. The Czech Republic, although hosting a part of the US anti-ballistic missile shield, is not a genuine "New Cold Warrior", while in 2016 Croatia effectively became one.

Autor polemizira s nekoć utjecajnim teorijama transformacije – najistaknutiji predstavnici kojih su Jon Elster i Claus Off e – koje su se temeljile na teoremu o tome kako je nemoguća istodobna uspješna privredna i politička – a negdje i državna – transformacija u Istočnoj Europi. Suprotno tim teorijama, u većini postkomunističkih država Istočne Europe demokracija se konsolidirala brzo. Tu postavku autor dokazuje mjereći konsolidiranost novih demokracija Bertelsmannovim indeksom transformacije (BTI) na četiri razine: na ustavnoj i predstavničkoj razini, te na razinama ponašanja aktera i političke kulture. Promašaje u analizi transformacijskih procesa pripisuje teorijama djelovanja koje su "tranzicijsku paradigmu" iz Južne Europe i Latinske Amerike naprosto presadile u Istočnu Europu. Teorije aktera su, pak, nastojale krajnje kompleksne promjene sustava u toj regiji izvesti iz vrlo formaliziranih i pojednostavnjenih konstelacija aktera, zanemarujući vrlo različite demokratizacijske potencijale pojedinih zemalja. U "teorijskom mraku" tako su ostale tri varijable – modernost, državnost i vanjski akteri – koje teorije modernizacije, teorije sustava i strukturalističke teorije stavljaju u središte svojih razmatranja, a koje su se pokazale iznimno važnima za razumijevanje transformacijskih procesa u Istočnoj Europi. ; The author polemises with once infl uential theories of transformation – whose greats are Jon Elster and Claus Off e – which were based on the theorem that a simultaneous successful economic and political – and, somewhere, state – transformation in Eastern Europe is not possible. Contrary to these theories, in most post-communist countries of Eastern Europe democracy has consolidated rather quickly. The author demonstrates this proposition by measuring the consolidation of new democracies according to Bertelsmann's transformation index (BTI) at four levels: the constitutional and representative level, and the levels of behaviour of actors and political culture. Failures in the analysis of transformation ...

The post-communist NATO member states from Central and South-Eastern Europe (CSEE) comprise a group of 11 NATO/EU member states, from the Baltic to the Adriatic and Black Sea. The twelfth and thirteenth NATO member states from the region are Albania and Montenegro. The afore-mentioned NATO/EU member states have mostly shown a similar stance towards the Eastern Partnership Policy. However, since 2014, these states have shown more diverse stances, albeit declaratively supporting the anti-Russian sanctions. Due to the difference in stances towards Russia, the "New Cold Warriors" (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania) and the "Pragmatics" (Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Bulgaria), will maintain a mostly common course towards Russia and the Eastern Partnership states because they have to. The Czech Republic, although hosting a part of the US anti-ballistic missile shield, is not a genuine "New Cold Warrior", while in 2016 Croatia effectively became one. ; The post-communist NATO member states from Central and South-Eastern Europe (CSEE) comprise a group of 11 NATO/EU member states, from the Baltic to the Adriatic and Black Sea. The twelfth and thirteenth NATO member states from the region are Albania and Montenegro. The afore-mentioned NATO/EU member states have mostly shown a similar stance towards the Eastern Partnership Policy. However, since 2014, these states have shown more diverse stances, albeit declaratively supporting the anti-Russian sanctions. Due to the difference in stances towards Russia, the "New Cold Warriors" (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania) and the "Pragmatics" (Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Bulgaria), will maintain a mostly common course towards Russia and the Eastern Partnership states because they have to. The Czech Republic, although hosting a part of the US anti-ballistic missile shield, is not a genuine "New Cold Warrior", while in 2016 Croatia effectively became one.