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The key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, in light of today's employment release, is discussed here. However, several alternative indicators have been proposed (some of dubious usefulness, like Vehicle Miles Traveled and gasoline consumption). Here's a graph over the corresponding time period, normalized to 2022M11. Figure 1: Heavy truck sales (blue, […]

With industrial production coming in, we have the following picture of some key business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC. Also included is GDPNow as of today. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ […]

With industrial production slightly under consensus (0% vs. 0.1% m/m), we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee (with heaviest weight on nonfarm payroll employment and personal income excluding transfers). Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income […]

Industrial production and manufacturing production both beat Bloomberg consensus (+0.1% vs 0%). Here's the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow (latter up today to 2.4% vs. 2.2% SAAR on 1/10). Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), implied level […]

Industrial production under consensus (+0.2% [corrected 12/16] m/m vs +0.3% Bloomberg consensus). Here's the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), implied level using Bloomberg consensus as of 12/4 (blue +), civilian employment […]

Industrial production is out, -0.6% m/m vs. consensus -0.3%. Here's the picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER's BCDC, along with SPGMI's (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2017$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales […]

Industrial production continues to rise, while February monthly GDP erased January's decline. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, […]

Industrial production comes in under consensus (-0.1% vs +0.2%). Here's a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating benchmark revision (bold dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption […]

Industrial and manufacturing production surprise on the upside (0.3% m/m vs. 0.1% consensus, 0.4% vs. 0.1% respectively), with August growth revised up. Here is a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC as well as monthly GDP (SPGMI) and GDPNow (at 5.4% q/q SAAR as of today). Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating […]

With personal income, consumption, and manufacturing and trade industry sales released, no downturn yet. If consensus holds, the momentum continues into August. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP and GDPNow. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding […]

Personal spending comes in at consensus, personal income above. Here's a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment (bold dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ […]

With today's spending and income release, we have this picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (consumption, income, sales), along with monthly GDP. Atlanta Fed has also released a new nowcast of GDP. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding […]

Industrial production near consensus, while manufacturing surprises on upside (+0.8% vs. +0.3% m/m). Here's a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with SPGMI's monthly GDP (formerly from Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS-Markit). Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment from CES (bold blue), from Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (teal), civilian employment […]

On the back of yesterday's GDP release (discussed by Jim), real personal consumption continues to rise, beating consensus (+0.5% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), while nominal personal income hits consensus at +0.3%. Here's the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating […]

With nonfarm payroll employment in November released (+199K vs. +180K consensus), we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (plus monthly GDP). The employment series below incorporates the preliminary benchmark revision. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), implied level using Bloomberg consensus as of 12/4 […]