Suchergebnisse

The Philippines undergoes a tariff reform program. After more than a decade of implementation, significant achievements have been attained in terms of changes in the tariff structure. For example, quantitative restrictions on important commodities have been tariffied. The tariff structure has been simplified from a multi-layered one into a structure with fewer tariff rates. Furthermore, tariff rates have been substantially reduced. The objective of the paper is to analyze the effects of the tariff reform program using a computable general equilibrium model calibrated using Philippine data. The primary focus is on the change in the tariff structure and its impact on efficiency, resource movements, income distribution, and welfare.

This dissertation is concerned with tax rates for the use of commodities in general, and energy in particular. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are used to analyze the normative question of whether the tax rate for intermediate use by firms should be the same as the tax rate for final consumption by households. To answer this question, a distinction needs to be made between fiscal taxes for the purpose of raising revenue for the government, and Pigovian taxes for the purpose of changing behaviour. Concerning fiscal taxes, firms should not pay taxes on their use of inputs if the tax rates in final consumption are at their optimal level. If the tax rate for households is above the optimal level, intermediate use in firms should be taxed in order to increase the price of other commodities and reduce the distortion of relative prices. Essay 1 ascertains what factors determine the optimal relation between the tax rate for final consumption by households and intermediate use by firms. Essay 2 analyses Swedish energy taxes from the perspective of reducing global emission of CO2. It is found that the welfare maximizing tax rates are equal for households and firms not participating in emission trading, while firms that participate in emission trading should have a zero tax rate. Essays 3 and 4 deal with methodological issues. Essay 3 derives a new method for estimation of symmetric input-output tables from supply and use tables. This method solves the problem of negative coefficients, makes it possible to use both the industry and commodity technology assumptions simultaneously and enables the commodity technology assumption to be used even when the number of commodities is larger than the number of industries. Essay 4 describes the model used in the first two essays. The price structure developed here makes it possible to take into account price differences between different purchasers other than differences in tax rates. This essay also makes a comparison between the Swedish implementation of this model and other Swedish CGE-models used to analyse climate policy and energy taxation.

This paper studies energy bias in technical change. For this purpose, we develop a computable general equilibrium model that builds on endogenous growth models. The model explicitly captures links between energy, the rate and direction of technical change, and the economy. We derive the equilibrium determinants of biased technical change and show the importance of feedback in technical change, substitution possibilities between final goods, and general-equilibrium effects for the equilibrium bias. If the feedback effect is strong, or the substitution elasticity large, or both, our model tends to a corner solution in which only technologies are developed that are appropriate for production of non-energy intensive goods.

This paper studies energy bias in technical change. For this purpose, we develop a computable general equilibrium model that builds on endogenous growth models. The model explicitly captures links between energy, the rate and direction of technical change, and the economy. We derive the equilibrium determinants of biased technical change and show the importance of feedback in technical change, substitution possibilities between final goods, and generalequilibrium effects for the equilibrium bias. If the feedback effect is strong, or the substitution elasticity large, or both, our model tends to a corner solution in which only technologies are developed that are appropriate for production of non-energy intensive goods.

The quantitative restriction (QR) on rice will last until the end of 2004. The paper employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the possible poverty and distributional effects of the removal of QR and the reduction in tariff on rice imports. Policy experiments indicate that while market reforms in rice lead to a reduction in the overall headcount poverty index, both the poverty gap and the squared poverty gap indices increase. The Gini coefficient increases as well. In general, these results imply that the poorest of the poor are adversely affected. In particular, while market reforms in rice bring about a reduction in consumer prices that is favorable to all, imports of rice surge and generate displacement effects on poor households that rely heavily on agriculture for factor incomes, particularly on palay rice production and other related activities. Palay production and its output price decline. This translates to lower demand for factor inputs in the sector, lower factor prices in agriculture, and lower factor incomes for these households. Thus, poverty in these groups, as well as the general income inequality, deteriorates. However, the results of the experiments involving various poverty-offsetting measures indicate that an increase in direct government transfers to these household groups can provide a better safety net.

The quantitative restriction (QR) on rice will last until the end of 2004. The paper employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the possible poverty and distributional effects of the removal of QR and the reduction in tariff on rice imports. Policy experiments indicate that while market reforms in rice lead to a reduction in the overall headcount poverty index, both the poverty gap and the squared poverty gap indices increase. The Gini coefficient increases as well. In general, these results imply that the poorest of the poor are adversely affected. In particular, while market reforms in rice bring about a reduction in consumer prices that is favorable to all, imports of rice surge and generate displacement effects on poor households that rely heavily on agriculture for factor incomes, particularly on palay rice production and other related activities. Palay production and its output price decline. This translates to lower demand for factor inputs in the sector, lower factor prices in agriculture, and lower factor incomes for these households. Thus, poverty in these groups, as well as the general income inequality, deteriorates. However, the results of the experiments involving various poverty-offsetting measures indicate that an increase in direct government transfers to these household groups can provide a better safety net.

The quantitative restriction (QR) on rice will last until the end of 2004. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the possible poverty and distributional effects of the removal of the QR and the reduction in tariffs on rice imports. Policy experiments indicate that while market reforms in rice lead to a reduction in the overall headcount poverty index, both the poverty gap and the squared poverty gap indices increase. The Gini coefficient rises as well. In general, these results imply that the poorest of the poor are adversely affected. In particular, while market reforms in rice bring about a reduction in consumer prices that is favorable to all, imports of rice surge and generate displacement effects on poor households that rely heavily on agriculture for factor incomes, particularly on palay rice production and other related activities. Palay production and its output price decline. This translates to lower demand for factor inputs in the sector, lower factor prices in agriculture, and lower factor incomes for these households. Thus, poverty in these groups, as well as general income inequality, deteriorates. However, the results of the experiments involving various poverty-offsetting measures indicate that an increase in direct government transfers to these household groups can provide a better safety net.

AbstractThe paper analyzes the economic impacts of climate change-induced fluctuations on the performance of Ethiopia's agriculture, using a countrywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We model the impacts on agriculture using a Ricardian model, where current agricultural production is modelled as a function of temperature and precipitation, among other things, and where future agriculture is assumed to follow the same climate function. The effect of overall climate change is projected to be relatively benign until approximately 2030, but will become considerably worse thereafter. Our simulation results indicate that, over a 50-year period, the projected reduction in agricultural productivity may lead to reductions in average income of some 20 per cent compared with the outcome that would have prevailed in the absence of climate change. This indicates that adaptation policies – both government planned and those that ease autonomous adaptation by farmers – will be crucial for Ethiopia's future development.