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Two types of heterogeneous investors (momentum and disposition) form a unique difference model to interpret housing price dynamics. Three parameters are crucial: auto-correlation, the rate of mean reversion and the contemporaneous adjustment towards long-term equilibrium price. For Singapore, we examine the dynamic structures that oscillate and/or diverge from equilibrium. Disposition investors predominate although the interaction between momentum and disposition investors acts as a key determinant of private housing price dynamics for a given time in a specific market. Key implication is that Singapore's private housing market is low risk, offering stable returns owing to virtually no divergence even in the speculative 1990s. The best way to invest is to consider the momentum strategy and avoid the herd behavior for profit sustainability. For policy-makers, the Singapore private housing market is over-damped in the long run. Predominating disposition investors contribute to the market mechanism, which automatically adjusts private housing market prices. It is imperative to relax government intervention in Singapore's private housing market to enhance its efficiency.

This paper examines the long-run dynamics and the cyclical structure of various series related to the US stock market using fractional integration. We implement a procedure which enables one to consider unit roots with possibly fractional orders of integration both at the zero (long-run) and the cyclical frequencies. We examine the following series: inflation, real risk-free rate, real stock returns, equity premium and price/dividend ratio, annually from 1871 to 1993. When focusing exclusively on the long-run or zero frequency, the estimated order of integration varies considerably, but nonstationarity is found only for the price/dividend ratio. When the cyclical component is also taken into account, the series appear to be stationary but to exhibit long memory with respect to both components in almost all cases. The exception is the price/dividend ratio, whose order of integration is higher than 0.5 but smaller than 1 for the long-run frequency, and is between 0 and 0.5 for the cyclical component. Also, mean reversion occurs in all cases. Finally, we use six different criteria to compare the forecasting performance of the fractional (at both zero and cyclical frequencies) models with others based on fractional and integer differentiation only at the zero frequency. The results show that the former outperforms the others in a number of cases.

Intro -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1. Stylized Facts -- Trend and Cyclical Components of GDP Growth -- Growth Accounting -- Growth, Investment, and Saving -- Summary -- 2. Determinants of Growth -- Setup -- Growth Determinants -- Transitional convergence -- Cyclical reversion -- Structural policies and institutions -- Stabilization policies -- External conditions -- Sample and Descriptive Statistics -- Estimation Methodology -- Results -- Main results -- Comparison with results under other estimation methods and time horizons -- Growth Explanations -- Explaining changes in growth rates over time -- Explaining differences in growth rates across countries -- 3. Growth in the Future -- Future Growth under Realistic Expectations -- Projections for growth determinants -- Forecasts for the average country in Latin America and the Caribbean -- Country forecasts -- Future Growth under Sharp Reform -- 4. Conclusions -- APPENDIXES -- A. Solow Growth Accounting -- B. Definitions and Sources of Variables Used in Regression Analysis -- C. Sample of Countries -- D. Explaining Changes in Growth by Country -- Bibliography -- LIST OF BOXES -- 1. Literature Review on Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean -- LIST OF TABLES -- 1. Growth Rates of GDP Per Capita by Region, 1961-2000 -- 2. Growth Rates of GDP Per Capita by Country, 1961-2000 -- 3. Growth Rates of Trend GDP Per Capita by Region, 1961-2000 -- 4. Growth Rates of Trend GDP Per Capita by Country, 1961-2000 -- 5. Volatility of GDP Per Capita by Region, 1961-2000 -- 6. Volatility of GDP Per Capita by Country, 1961-2000 -- 7. Simple Growth Accounting, 1961-2000 -- 8. Growth Accounting Adjusted for Human Capital, 1961-2000 -- 9. Growth Accounting Adjusted for Human Capital and Input Utilization, 1971-2000 -- 10. Saving, Growth, and Investment: Bivariate Causality Analysis.

Abstract
This paper examines the impact of the timing of contributions to defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) plans on investment returns. I show that net contributions to DB plans are counter-cyclical, while net contributions to DC plans are uncorrelated with the business cycle. Given the past mean reversion in equity prices, the counter-cyclicality of net contributions to DB plans means that dollar-weighted returns on DB plans are higher than the geometric average of annual returns. Therefore, using dollar-weighted returns as a measure of investment performance, the advantage of DB plans over DC plans is greater than using geometric average returns. Overall, I find that dollar-weighted returns on DB plans are more than one percentage point higher than that on DC plans.

One of the defining features of Turkish politics has been the strong influence of the military in civilian politics. However, since the early 2000s, we have seen unprecedented developments, substantially constraining the political powers of the military. How can we interpret this period from a historical perspective? What are the continuities and discontinuities in Turkish civil–military relations? Do these developments mark the end of military guardianship in the country? Employing the principal–agent framework, this study shows that the path of Turkish civil–military relations has been cyclical, where the status of the military has swung between agent and principal. Such swings have led to a significant degree of variance in the nature of the military guardianship. Thus, this study identifies two distinct stages of military tutelage during the Republican period: symbolic (1924–1960) and overt/ assertive (1960–2001). It is further argued that the recent reversion of the military back to agent of the civilian principals has initiated a post-guardianship era in Turkey.

PurposeThe use of modern portfolio theory (MPT) in the construction real estate portfolios has two serious limitations when used in anex anteframework: the intertemporal instability of the portfolio weights; and the sharp deterioration in performance of the optimal portfolios outside the sample period used to estimate asset mean returns. Both problems can be traced to wide fluctuations in sample means. Aims to prove that the use of a procedure that ignores the estimation risk due to the uncertain in mean returns is likely to produce sub‐optimal results in subsequent periods.Design/methodology/approachThis study extends previousex ante‐based studies by evaluatingex postoptimal portfolio allocations in subsequent test periods by using methods that have been proposed to reduce the effect of measurement error on optimal portfolio allocations.FindingsWhile techniques designed to handle estimation risk in capital market studies have yielded promising results, they are not completely successful in improving out‐of‐sample performance in this case. It is hypothesised that such results are due to the cyclical nature of property and that the contrarian and mean‐reversion effects picked up in studies of stocks and bonds are not captured when an asset such as direct property is examined. This conclusion is also supported by the strong performance of the tangency portfolios, and in particular the classical unadjusted Sharpe portfolio, over the shorter horizons, which would be consistent with a cyclical momentum effect.Originality/valueThe results suggest that the consideration of the issue of estimation risk is crucial in the use of MPT in developing a successful real estate portfolio strategy.

One of the defining features of Turkish politics has been the strong influence of the military in civilian politics. However, since the early 2000s, we have seen unprecedented developments, substantially constraining the political powers of the military. How can we interpret this period from a historical perspective? What are the continuities and discontinuities in Turkish civil-military relations? Do these developments mark the end of military guardianship in the country? Employing the principal-agent framework, this study shows that the path of Turkish civil-military relations has been cyclical, where the status of the military has swung between agent and principal. Such swings have led to a significant degree of variance in the nature of the military guardianship. Thus, this study identifies two distinct stages of military tutelage during the Republican period: symbolic (1924-1960) and overt/assertive (1960-2001). It is further argued that the recent reversion of the military back to agent of the civilian principals has initiated a post-guardianship era in Turkey. [Reprinted by permission; copyright Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society/Sage Publications Inc.]

La reforma reciente de la Constitución económica invita a reflexionar sobre el alcance actual de las relaciones Política-Economía y, en particular, sobre el devenir de la generalizada tendencia inaugurada varias décadas atrás para independizar la toma de decisiones sobre la economía —y, también, para la garantía de derechosfundamentales— mediante la creación de administraciones independientes. Tras el inicial éxito de este modelo, generalizándose y perfeccionándolo, se han producido en los últimos tiempos decisiones de los poderes públicos que evidencian, aun de forma contradictoria y, tal vez, coyuntural, la reversión, crisis y quiebra del paradigma de la independencia de los reguladores. Este trabajo persigue ilustrar la evolución sufrida por las administraciones independientes y destacar los relevantes ejemplos que demuestran el riesgo de quiebra de la independencia de los reguladores.The recent reform of the economic Constitution invites to analyze the current Politics-Economy relationship and, in particular, the evolution of the widespread tendency opened several decades ago for independent decision making on the economy —and, also, for the guarantee of fundamental rights—through the creation of independent agencies. After the initial success of this model, generalizing it and strengthening it, have occurred in recent times decisions of public authorities which demonstrate, even of contradictory form and, perhaps, cyclical, the crisis and breach of the paradigm of the regulator independence. This paper aims to illustrate the evolution suffered by independent authorities and highlights the relevant examples that demonstrate the risk of breaching the regulators independence.

Following the 'Maidan revolution' of February 2014, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) abandoned the exchange rate peg to the US dollar and switched to a flexible exchange rate, which was later formalised within the framework of the newly adopted inflation targeting regime. Our analysis suggests that this move has been questionable and, at the very least, premature. First, the presumed success of inflation targeting as a universally applicable 'magical tool' to reach low and stable levels of inflation in many countries has in reality been largely due to other factors rather than the inflation targeting concept. Second, the NBU's announced inflation target (5% in the medium term) appears to be overly ambitious given Ukraine's development level. Experience from other countries suggests that sticking to this target at all cost will likely require a consistently overly restrictive monetary policy, which will constrain Ukraine's growth prospects. Last but not least, as capital controls are gradually eased, the exchange rate will likely become vulnerable to speculative attacks once again, given the numerous political and geopolitical uncertainties and the 'thinness' of the country's foreign exchange market. Attempts at macroeconomic stabilisation in response to such exchange rate shocks by using 'classical' inflation targeting instruments such as interest rates will have a pro-cyclical impact, given the high degree of dollarisation and the related prevalence of so-called 'balance sheet effects'. The experience of other countries in similar circumstances – both in Central and Eastern Europe and elsewhere – suggests that a preferable strategy would be to smooth exchange rate fluctuations via interventions rather than monetary policy instruments. For this, a certain minimum level of reserves is needed; the latter will not only provide the necessary policy space for interventions should such a need arise, but should discourage speculations against the currency in the first place. Another major reform effort undertaken recently (October 2017) has been a comprehensive pension reform, which envisaged most notably a gradual increase in the effective retirement age. Our analysis suggests that the current situation in Ukraine's pension system hardly justifies such a step. The country's statutory retirement age may be indeed rather low, but it is more than offset by the low life expectancy of Ukrainians, and the share of pensioners in the total population is not particularly high by international standards. Besides, while Ukraine's Pension Fund may be in deficit, this is not very different from the situation observed in other countries, and there are no theoretical arguments why the Pension Fund must be necessarily balanced. Finally, the sustainability of the pension system is not necessarily a cause of major concern either, taking into account the likely future improvements in the labour market. To the extent that any reform of the pension system is needed at all, it should target above all efforts to curb the shadow economy and/or partial reversion of last year's cuts in social security contributions.

The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has seen a decade of remarkable growth and income convergence. Growth has been a key driver for reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. It has been debated how much of this decade of growth has been driven by policy reforms and how much was due to the favorable external conditions. While external factors were supportive and relevant, the effect of domestic policies was just as relevant for explaining LAC's recent growth performance. The emphasis of domestic policy has shifted from stabilization policies to structural policies. In addition, a benchmarking exercise reveals which policy gaps will lead to the highest potential growth-payoffs for each country and helps identify potential trade-offs. The authors analyze growth in LAC using descriptive statistics and growth econometrics. The authors use these results for explaining the pattern of growth in LAC over the last decade, for looking ahead, and to identify potential policy gaps.