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The Air Force estimates military construction (MILCON) costs early in a project's development as a part of the funding approval process. However, many of the initial cost estimates deviate significantly more than expected from the actual project costs, hindering funding allocation efforts. There is a need for improved estimation techniques. This research examines a cost estimation model for the initial programming stages of a project when only general scope information is available. This study develops a Monte Carlo simulation based on historical construction cost data to predict project costs base on facility type. For a given facility type, the research identified distributions and associated correlations to model major cost elements from the historical data. The Monte Carlo simulation uses these distributions and correlations to estimate the total cost of separate validation projects. The results reveal a histogram, showing the probability range of possible costs for each project. This research compares these results to the actual costs and cost estimates for the same projects along with additional estimated costs derived from standard Air Force cost estimation guides. The results highlight the level of accuracy for current estimation techniques and validate the utility of this model. The Air Force can use this model to improve initial cost estimates, better predicting expected costs in addition to revealing the uncertainty inherent in those costs.

Defence date: 15 October 2003 ; Examining Board: Victoria De Grazia (EUI, Firenze); Gérard Delille (EUI, Firenze, supervisor); Gabriella Gribaudi (Università Federico II, Napoli); Marco Palla (Università di Firenze) ; First made available online on 23 October 2014. ; Questa ricerca nasce dal recente ritrovamento, presso gli eredi del pittore fiorentino Giovanni Colacicchi, di lettere e documenti appartenuti a Carlo Levi, risalenti al periodo in cui il pittore e scrittore torinese tenne aperto uno studio a Firenze: dalla fine del 1941 alla fine del 1945. Durante questi anni, accadono molte cose che un biografo definirebbe "fondamentali". Dalla Questura di Firenze parte l'ordine di arresto che costa a Levi la terza carcerazione della sua vita: dalla fine del giugno 1943 sarà detenuto al carcere delle Murate, da cui uscirà il 26 luglio. Tra il 1943 e il 1944, nascosto in piazza Pitti, scrive Cristo si è fermato ad Eboli, che resterà il suo libro più celebre. A Firenze Levi aderisce al Partito d'Azione, e quindi lo rappresenta, dall'agosto 1944, nella direzione interpartitica della "Nazione del Popolo", il quotidiano pubblicato a cura del Comitato Toscano di Liberazione Nazionale. Tra i cinque condirettori, Levi si ritaglia un ruolo di assoluto primo piano: ha un peso molto rilevante nella scelta dei collaboratori, a lui si devono la presenza di certi temi e prese di posizione sulle pagine della "Nazione del Popolo". Levi interviene direttamente – sono almeno trenta i suoi articoli di fondo, concentrati soprattutto nei primi mesi di vita del giornale –, oppure commissiona alcuni pezzi ad hoc ai suoi collaboratori più stretti.

Tal como ha destacado Carlo Galli, las menciones a Nicolás Maquiavelo en la obra de Carl Schmitt responden a un uso instrumental por parte del jurista, hecho que denota la influencia secundaria del florentino en el pensamiento schmittiano. El presente trabajo ahonda en dicho trasfondo sosteniendo que existe un desacuerdo irresoluble entre ambos autores que no debe buscarse en la diferencia entre "lo político" schmittiano y "la política" maquiaveliana —tal como señala Galli apoyándose en una supuesta influencia mayor de El Príncipe sobre Schmitt—, sino en una discusión sobre la forma política moderna que se deriva de la lectura de los Discursos ; As Carlo Galli has emphasized, references to Machiavelli in Carl Schmitt's work respond to an instrumental use, which shows the secondary influence of the Florentine on Schmitt's thought. This paper delves into this background, showing that there is an unsolvable disagreement between the two authors that must not be found in the difference between Schmitt's concept of the political and Machiavelli's concept of politics —like Galli claims relying on a supposed major influence of The Prince on Schmitt's thought— but in a discussion about the modern political formation that comes from reading the Discourses ; Fil: Laleff Ilieff, Ricardo Jesús. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina

Non è facile ricostruire il pensiero ideologico di A.C. Jemolo (1891-1981). Tra il 1912 e il 1914 assume posizioni nazionaliste e reazionarie in opposizione alle idee socialiste e massoniche. Alla vigilia della prima guerra mondiale aderisce a "Italia nostra", un gruppo di intellettuali neutralisti. L'esperienza della guerra e l'incontro con Ernesto Buonaiuti provocano il suo distacco dal nazionalismo. In un primo momento respinge decisamente il fascismo come movimento sovvertitore dello Stato ma, dopo che esso si è consolidato, Jemolo è obbligato a scegliere una linea di condotta che difenda i suoi princìpi. Tra il 1927 e il 1938 loda la figura di Mussolini e la sua politica ecclesiastica in diversi scritti. Dopo la caduta del regime, Jemolo reinterpreta il suo atteggiamento verso il fascismo come un "conflitto di fedeltà" tra lo Stato e il dovere d'ufficio, tra la propria etica e la coscienza cristiana. Nel 1947 la sua riflessione sfocia nella critica al formalismo giuridico e nell'affermazione dei limiti della funzione del giurista nella società.It is not easy to reconstruct the ideological thinking of Arturo Carlo Jemolo (1891-1981). Between 1912 and 1914 he takes reactionary and nationalist positions in opposition to socialist and Masonic ideas. On the eve of World War, he adheres to "Italia nostra", a group of intellectuals neutralist. The experience of the war and the meeting with Ernesto Buonaiuti cause its detachment from nationalism. At first, he firmly rejects fascism considering it as a movement subversive state movement. Anyway, after it was consolidated, Jemolo was obliged to choose a position in defence of its principles. Between 1927 and 1938 he praises the figure of Mussolini and his ecclesiastical policy in several writings. After the fall of the regime, Jemolo reinterprets his attitude toward fascism as a "conflict of loyalty" between the state and the official duty, between its individual ethics and the Christian conscience. In 1947 his reflection leads to the critique of legal formalism and to the affirmation of the limits of the function of the lawyer in society.

Motivated by the changing nature of the natural gas industry in the European Union driven by the liberalization process, we focus on pricing of gas swing options. These options are embedded in typical gas sales agreements in the form of offtake flexibility concerning volume and time. The gas swing option is actually a set of several American puts on a spread between prices of two or more energy commodities. This fact together with the fact that the energy markets are fundamentally different from traditional financial security markets is important for our choice of valuation technique. Due to the specific features of the energy markets, the existing analytic approximations for spread option pricing are hardly applicable to our framework. That is why we employ Monte Carlo methods to model the spot price dynamics of the underlying commodities. The price of an arbitrarily chosen gas swing option is then computed in accordance with the concept of risk-neutral expectations. Finally, our result is compared with the real payoff from the option realized at time of the option execution and the maximum ex-post payoff the buyer could generate in case he knew the future, discounting to the original time of the option pricing.

International audience ; Numerical accuracy of floating point computation is a well studied topic which has not made its way to the end-user in scientific computing. Yet, it has become a critical issue with the recent requirements for code modernization to harness new highly parallel hardware and perform higher resolution computation. To democratize numerical accuracy analysis, it is important to propose tools and methodologies to study large use cases in a reliable and automatic way. In this paper, we propose verificarlo, an extension to the LLVM compiler to automatically use Monte Carlo Arithmetic in a transparent way for the end-user. It supports all the major languages including C, C++, and Fortran. Unlike source-to-source approaches, our implementation captures the influence of compiler optimizations on the numerical accuracy. We illustrate how Monte Carlo Arithmetic using the verificarlo tool outperforms the existing approaches on various use cases and is a step toward automatic numerical analysis.

International audience ; Numerical accuracy of floating point computation is a well studied topic which has not made its way to the end-user in scientific computing. Yet, it has become a critical issue with the recent requirements for code modernization to harness new highly parallel hardware and perform higher resolution computation. To democratize numerical accuracy analysis, it is important to propose tools and methodologies to study large use cases in a reliable and automatic way. In this paper, we propose verificarlo, an extension to the LLVM compiler to automatically use Monte Carlo Arithmetic in a transparent way for the end-user. It supports all the major languages including C, C++, and Fortran. Unlike source-to-source approaches, our implementation captures the influence of compiler optimizations on the numerical accuracy. We illustrate how Monte Carlo Arithmetic using the verificarlo tool outperforms the existing approaches on various use cases and is a step toward automatic numerical analysis.

Numerical accuracy of floating point computation is a well studied topic which has not made its way to the end-user in scientific computing. Yet, it has become a critical issue with the recent requirements for code modernization to harness new highly parallel hardware and perform higher resolution computation. To democratize numerical accuracy analysis, it is important to propose tools and methodologies to study large use cases in a reliable and automatic way. In this paper, we propose verificarlo, an extension to the LLVM compiler to automatically use Monte Carlo Arithmetic in a transparent way for the end-user. It supports all the major languages including C, C++, and Fortran. Unlike source-to-source approaches, our implementation captures the influence of compiler optimizations on the numerical accuracy. We illustrate how Monte Carlo Arithmetic using the verificarlo tool outperforms the existing approaches on various use cases and is a step toward automatic numerical analysis.

This article, through an analysis of Venetian ambassadors reports to the Senate concerning Charles V and his Empire, focus on the evolution of the emperor's image in these diplomatic reports according to the various historical conjunctures and to the evolution of the Venetian political strategy, considering also the influence exerted by the ideological background of every ambassador. It emerges the progressive decline of politic humanism initially prevailing among the emperor's counsellors just as the Venetian politics slowly evolves in an anti-Spanish and anti-papal direction. ; L'articolo prende lo spunto dall'analisi delle Relazioni degli ambasciatori veneziani al Senato riguardanti Carlo V e il suo Impero, e si concentra sull'evoluzione dell'immagine dell'imperatore nei resoconti dei diplomatici rientrati in patria secondo le varie congiunture del momento e l'evolversi degli orientamenti della politica veneziana, tenendo ben presente anche il filtro costituito dall'ideologia e dalla formazione dei singoli ambasciatori. Emerge il progressivo declino dell'umanesimo politico inizialmente dominante tra i consiglieri dell'imperatore, mentre l'orientamento della politica veneziana si evolve lentamente in senso antispagnolo e antipapale.

This article, through an analysis of Venetian ambassadors reports to the Senate concerning Charles V and his Empire, focus on the evolution of the emperor's image in these diplomatic reports according to the various historical conjunctures and to the evolution of the Venetian political strategy, considering also the influence exerted by the ideological background of every ambassador. It emerges the progressive decline of politic humanism initially prevailing among the emperor's counsellors just as the Venetian politics slowly evolves in an anti-Spanish and anti-papal direction. ; L'articolo prende lo spunto dall'analisi delle Relazioni degli ambasciatori veneziani al Senato riguardanti Carlo V e il suo Impero, e si concentra sull'evoluzione dell'immagine dell'imperatore nei resoconti dei diplomatici rientrati in patria secondo le varie congiunture del momento e l'evolversi degli orientamenti della politica veneziana, tenendo ben presente anche il filtro costituito dall'ideologia e dalla formazione dei singoli ambasciatori. Emerge il progressivo declino dell'umanesimo politico inizialmente dominante tra i consiglieri dell'imperatore, mentre l'orientamento della politica veneziana si evolve lentamente in senso antispagnolo e antipapale.

This article, through an analysis of Venetian ambassadors reports to the Senate concerning Charles V and his Empire, focus on the evolution of the emperor's image in these diplomatic reports according to the various historical conjunctures and to the evolution of the Venetian political strategy, considering also the influence exerted by the ideological background of every ambassador. It emerges the progressive decline of politic humanism initially prevailing among the emperor's counsellors just as the Venetian politics slowly evolves in an anti-Spanish and anti-papal direction. ; L'articolo prende lo spunto dall'analisi delle Relazioni degli ambasciatori veneziani al Senato riguardanti Carlo V e il suo Impero, e si concentra sull'evoluzione dell'immagine dell'imperatore nei resoconti dei diplomatici rientrati in patria secondo le varie congiunture del momento e l'evolversi degli orientamenti della politica veneziana, tenendo ben presente anche il filtro costituito dall'ideologia e dalla formazione dei singoli ambasciatori. Emerge il progressivo declino dell'umanesimo politico inizialmente dominante tra i consiglieri dell'imperatore, mentre l'orientamento della politica veneziana si evolve lentamente in senso antispagnolo e antipapale.

This article, through an analysis of Venetian ambassadors reports to the Senate concerning Charles V and his Empire, focus on the evolution of the emperor's image in these diplomatic reports according to the various historical conjunctures and to the evolution of the Venetian political strategy, considering also the influence exerted by the ideological background of every ambassador. It emerges the progressive decline of politic humanism initially prevailing among the emperor's counsellors just as the Venetian politics slowly evolves in an anti-Spanish and anti-papal direction. ; L'articolo prende lo spunto dall'analisi delle Relazioni degli ambasciatori veneziani al Senato riguardanti Carlo V e il suo Impero, e si concentra sull'evoluzione dell'immagine dell'imperatore nei resoconti dei diplomatici rientrati in patria secondo le varie congiunture del momento e l'evolversi degli orientamenti della politica veneziana, tenendo ben presente anche il filtro costituito dall'ideologia e dalla formazione dei singoli ambasciatori. Emerge il progressivo declino dell'umanesimo politico inizialmente dominante tra i consiglieri dell'imperatore, mentre l'orientamento della politica veneziana si evolve lentamente in senso antispagnolo e antipapale.

This article, through an analysis of Venetian ambassadors reports to the Senate concerning Charles V and his Empire, focus on the evolution of the emperor's image in these diplomatic reports according to the various historical conjunctures and to the evolution of the Venetian political strategy, considering also the influence exerted by the ideological background of every ambassador. It emerges the progressive decline of politic humanism initially prevailing among the emperor's counsellors just as the Venetian politics slowly evolves in an anti-Spanish and anti-papal direction. ; L'articolo prende lo spunto dall'analisi delle Relazioni degli ambasciatori veneziani al Senato riguardanti Carlo V e il suo Impero, e si concentra sull'evoluzione dell'immagine dell'imperatore nei resoconti dei diplomatici rientrati in patria secondo le varie congiunture del momento e l'evolversi degli orientamenti della politica veneziana, tenendo ben presente anche il filtro costituito dall'ideologia e dalla formazione dei singoli ambasciatori. Emerge il progressivo declino dell'umanesimo politico inizialmente dominante tra i consiglieri dell'imperatore, mentre l'orientamento della politica veneziana si evolve lentamente in senso antispagnolo e antipapale.

The study of the three dimensional structure of the earth is limited by the uneven distribution of earthquake sources and seismic stations. The distribution of the earthquakes is fixed as most earthquakes occur along the plate boundaries. The use of artificial sources can improve the distribution of seismic sources but such experiments are not popular as they require sources with the strength of a nuclear explosion in order to probe the mantle. The distribution of seismic stations is mainly concentrated in regions with a significant earthquake risk. In Europe the availability of seismic data has also been restricted by political borders. The politically changes in the 1980's and 1990's in Eastern Europe lead to increased scientific communication which has resulted in the NARS-DEEP (Network of Autonomously Recording Seismographs Deployed on the East European Platform) project. The NARS-DEEP project has been initiated to increase the data coverage in Eastern Europe and to investigate the geodynamic history of the region. Starting in the summer of 1995 eleven modern digital seismic stations have been installed in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Finland, see Figure 1.1. Other organizations such as IRIS and GEOFON also installed several seismic stations in the region. In this thesis the velocity structure of Eastern Europe is investigated using these newly available data.

The study of the three dimensional structure of the earth is limited by the uneven distribution of earthquake sources and seismic stations. The distribution of the earthquakes is fixed as most earthquakes occur along the plate boundaries. The use of artificial sources can improve the distribution of seismic sources but such experiments are not popular as they require sources with the strength of a nuclear explosion in order to probe the mantle. The distribution of seismic stations is mainly concentrated in regions with a significant earthquake risk. In Europe the availability of seismic data has also been restricted by political borders. The politically changes in the 1980's and 1990's in Eastern Europe lead to increased scientific communication which has resulted in the NARS-DEEP (Network of Autonomously Recording Seismographs Deployed on the East European Platform) project. The NARS-DEEP project has been initiated to increase the data coverage in Eastern Europe and to investigate the geodynamic history of the region. Starting in the summer of 1995 eleven modern digital seismic stations have been installed in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Finland, see Figure 1.1. Other organizations such as IRIS and GEOFON also installed several seismic stations in the region. In this thesis the velocity structure of Eastern Europe is investigated using these newly available data.