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ABSTRACT* * *In a recent paper, Cohen and Felson argue that changes in our routine activities since World War 11 have contributed to the increase in predatory crime by creating additional opportunities for it. In particular, they found that a measure of the dispersal of activities away from the home‐the household activity ratio‐has had a significant effect on crime rate trends since 1947. The aim of the present research is twofold: (1) to determine if this relationship occurs across space as well as over time, and (2) to see i f economic inequality may be an intervening variable between the household activity ratio and the crime rate. The sample consists of 93 nonsouthern cities of over 50,000 population in 1960. Data are drawn from the 1970 Census und the U n i f m Crime Reports. Using path analysis, it is determined that the effects of the household activity ratio cm rates of predatory crime are entirely indirect, and are transmitted by income inequality.

During & after WWII & until fairly recent years, most US cities experienced rapid aging & physical decay, resulting in an exodus by Mc residents to the suburbs, & the attendant erosion of cities' tax bases that made it impossible to cope effectively with a wide range of social problems. At present, however, there is considerable evidence of a rebirth of our central cities, the single most important contributing factor being the federal government's encouragement of their economic development. Differential investment & employment tax credits, expanded Economic Development Administration & Ur Development Action Grant funding, & related proposals in the new national Ur policy of 1978 are intended to offset job & revenue losses resulting from central cities' outmoded manufacturing facilities & transportation. This new Ur policy emphasizes the importance of state governance & tax policies for the well-being of cities. Most experts agree, however, that it takes at least twenty years to effect significant changes in Ur development patterns, & the ultimate test of our new Ur policy will be the degree of momentum it achieves & sustains over time. Modified HA.

During and after World War II and until fairly recent years, most American cities experienced rapid aging and physical decay, resulting in an exodus to the suburbs of their middle-class residents and in the attendant erosion of their tax bases, which made it impossible to cope effectively with a wide range of social problems. At present, however, there is considerable evidence of a rebirth of our central cities, the single most important factor contributing to this trend being the federal government's enouragement of their economic development. The differential investment and employment tax credits, expanded Economic Development Administration (EDA) and Urban Development Action Grant (UDAG) funding, and related proposals in our new national urban policy promulgated in 1978 are intended to help offset the job and revenue losses resulting from central cities' outmoded manufacturing facilities and transportation systems. Moreover, this new urban policy emphasizes the importance of state governance and tax policies for the well-being of cities. Most experts agree, however, that it takes at least 20 years to effect significant changes in urban development patterns, and the ultimate test of our new urban policy will be the degree of momentum it is able to achieve and sustain over time.

A consortium of Syracuse City and Onondaga County governments along with a number of local area non-profit organizations have recently organized a commission on Local Government Modernization for the Syracuse area. The Report makes three major recommendation to strengthen the local public sector in the Syracuse region: seek opportunities to share public services across local jurisdictions to reduce costs, adopt the Minneapolis region model for sharing revenues from new commercial and industrial development across localities, and work toward merging Syracuse City government with Onondaga County government. At the same time, current non-city residents would not have responsibility for the city or school district's legacy debts or post-employment benefit obligations. The working paper reviews the urban economics and local public finance literature in the context of fiscal viability of central cities. Central cities form the heart of knowledge-based economies and those benefits redound to the entire region in the form of higher property values and incomes. In addition, suburban enclaves have developed in part through discriminatory policies and practices at the federal and local levels and they have weakened the fiscal viabilities of central cities. It also reviews the relevant local public finance literature on city annexation and government mergers, optimally sized jurisdictions, non-profit entities' payments in lieu of taxes in cities, efficient local government taxes, and related topics. Based on the review, the economic development of a region depends on the economic and fiscal sustainability of its central city. Suburban resident benefit in tangible ways from the economic activities in their respective cities and suburban areas could reasonably devote a portion of their tax base to enhance the resources available to the city to service the city's legacy debts and other obligations. The working paper concludes with fiscal implications for Syracuse City and its metropolitan area.