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학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 국제대학원 국제학과(국제지역학전공), 2020. 8. 한정훈. ; 2010 년 케냐 헌법의 공표 후, 혁명 정부 시스템은 케냐 중앙 정부의 반독립 총재들이 이끄는 47 개의 분리 된 부대를 설립했다. 카운티 정부가 관할 지역 및 지역 사회에서 서비스를 제공하는 데 최적으로 운영 되려면 정부로부터 공평한 지분을 보충하기 위해 자체 소스 수익 (OSR)을 생성해야합니다. 카운티의 자체 소스 수익 향상은 케냐 헌법 제 209 조 제 3 항에 의해 제재 된 재정적 의무를 충족시키는 데 핵심입니다. 이로 인해 카운티는 중앙 정부로부터 더 많은 재정적 자율권을 갖게 될 것입니다. 케냐에서 14 개 카운티의 OSB C.o.B, OSR 보고서는 2013/2014 회계 연도에 소외된 지방 정부가 설정 한 수준 아래로 떨어졌으며 또한 47 개 카운티 중 OSR의 편차가 있음을 강조했습니다. 이 연구의 이론은 다른 정부 정부의 지역 사회 경제 발전에 미치는 영향과 지역에 서비스를 제공하려는 욕구를 고려하여 중앙 정부에서 케냐에서 케냐의 카운티 정부 재정 자율의 중요성에 의해 주어진다 관할 지역 내 커뮤니티 커뮤니티. 이 연구는 알려진 소스에서 분산 소스로서의 사회적 현상 인 범죄의 알려지지 않은 영향에 이르기까지 카운티 자체 소스 수익 (OSR)의 분산 소스를 평가하기 위해 설정되었습니다. 그 중점은 2013 년부터 2019 년까지 47 개 카운티 정부에서 혁명이 시작된시기입니다. 범죄의 경제적, 사회적 비용에 특히 중점을두고 목표는 다른 카운티의 범죄 유병률이 OSR (자신의 소스 수익) 동원에 영향을 미치는지 확인하는 것입니다. 케냐의 OSR (카운티 소유 소스 수익)과 관련하여 범죄율 유병률과 재정 자율성 (재정 자율성)의 연계는이 연구 분야에 대한 작은 문헌에서 알 수 있듯이 덜 탐구되는 분야입니다. 이 연구는 범죄 유병률이 개별 케냐 카운티 자체 소스 수익 동원에 미치는 영향을 다룰 것입니다. 둘째, 카운티 자신의 소스 수익의 세 번째 변화 원인은 무엇입니까? 셋째, 국가가 분리 된 지배 구조 시스템을 채택하도록 자극 한 이유는 무엇이며 범죄 통제와 관련하여 카운티 정부의 역할은 무엇입니까. 이 프로젝트는 카운티마다 다른 정도의 재정적 자율성과 OSR과 관련하여 재정적 자율성 수준의 불일치의 원인을 식별 할 수 있다는 점을 고려해야합니다. 연구 데이터는 예산 케냐 (CoB) 국가 경찰 서비스국 (NPS), 케냐 수익 할당위원회 (CRA)의 2 차 데이터 보고서에서 얻은 것입니다. 이번 조사 결과에 따르면 각 카운티의 범죄 유병률은 경제 및 사회 범죄 비용의 부정적인 영향으로 인해 자체 소스 수익 (OSR) 동원에 부정적인 영향을 미칩니다. 이 연구는 케냐의 범죄 유병률을 줄이기위한 두 수준의 정부의보다 강력한 협력을 제안한다. 범죄의 유병률이 높을수록 OSR이 낮아져 카운티들 사이에 재정적 스트레스가 발생하고 중앙 정부에 대한 재정적 자율성 상실로 이어지기 때문에 재정 자율성 상실로 이어진다. 범죄 확산이 카운티 운영에 영향을 미치기 때문에 적절한 범죄 예방 정책을 채택하고 더 많은 보안 역할을 분담해야합니다 ; Following the promulgation of the Kenyan Constitution in 2010, a Devolutionary system of government was establishing 47 devolved units led by semi-independent governors from the central government of Kenya. For the County Governments to operate optimally in delivery of services in their areas of Jurisdiction and local community, they are required to generate their Own Source Revenue (OSR) to supplement the equitable share from the National Government. Enhancement of Own Source Revenue in counties is core to meeting their financial obligation which is sanctioned by article 209 (3) of the constitution of Kenya. This will give counties a more degree of fiscal autonomy from the central government. Reports from C.o.B, OSR from the 14 counties in Kenya fell below the level set by defunct local governments in 2013/2014 FY and also underscored the existence of variance of OSR among the 47 counties. The theory of this research is given by the importance of the Kenyan devolved County Government Fiscal Autonomy in Kenya from the Central Government, taking into consideration its impact on the economic development of the local communities at different County Governments and the urge to deliver services to local community communities within their jurisdictions. The research is set to assess the sources of variance of Counties Own Source Revenue (OSR) from the known sources to the unknown effect of Crime, a social phenomenon as a source of variance. The focus is the period since year 2013 to year 2019 when devolution came to effect among all the 47 county governments. Specific focus is on the economic and social cost of crime and objectives is to ascertain whether crime prevalence in different counties is a factor on Own Source Revenue (OSR) mobilization. The nexus between crime rate prevalence and Fiscal Autonomy with reference to Counties Own Source Revenue (OSR) in Kenya is a field that is less explored as shown by little literature on this area of research. This research will address the effects of crime prevalence on individual Kenyan Counties Own Source Revenue mobilization. Second, what are the other know sources of variance in Counties Own Source Revenue ,third, what triggered the country to adopt a devolved system of governance, and finally, what are the roles of County Governments with reference to control of crime. My consideration is that this project will be able to identify the different degrees of fiscal autonomy among counties and possible causes of discrepancy of levels of fiscal autonomy with reference to OSR among them The research Data were sourced from secondary data reports from Controller of budget Kenya (CoB) National police service (NPS), Commission of Revenue Allocation, Kenya (CRA) The findings shows that crime prevalence in different Counties to a great extent have a negative effect on Own source Revenue (OSR) mobilization because of the negative effect of the Economic and Social cost of crime This study proposes stronger cooperation of the two levels of governments in reducing crime prevalence in Kenya, since the more the prevalence of crime the lower the OSR hence causing fiscal stress among counties and over dependence on the central government leading to loss of Fiscal Autonomy. Proper crime prevention policy ought to be adopted and more security roles should be devolved since crime prevalence affect the counties operations. ; CHAPTER ONE: GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Problem statement 6 1.2 Study Objective 8 1.2.1 General Objective 8 1.2.2 Specific Objectives. 8 1.3 The study setting and justification 9 CHAPTER TWO: DEVOLUTION IN KENYA 11 2.0 Devolved Governance in Kenya 11 2.1 Structure of devolution in Kenya 13 2.2 Path to Devolution 13 2.3 Financing of County Governments. 16 2.4 Achievements and challenges of devolution policy in Kenya 19 2.5 Role of County Governments in containing crime 21 CHAPTER THREE: LITERATURE REVIEW 25 3.0. Autonomy of County Governments 25 3.1 Fiscal autonomy 28 3.2 Fiscal stress 30 3.3 Variance of Own Source Revenue 32 3.4 Crime and Own Source Revenue (OSR) 33 3.5 Classification of Crimes. 34 3.5.1 International Classification of Crime 34 3.5.2 Classification of crime in Kenya 35 3.6 Theoretical framework of crime 38 3.6.1 Anomie Theory 38 3.7 Economic cost of crime 41 3.8 Conclusion 44 CHAPTER FOUR: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 45 4.0 Introduction 45 4.1 Data Sources 45 4.2 Data Analysis 47 4.3 Unit of Analysis and Scope of the Study 48 4.4 Problems Encountered 48 CHAPTER FIVE: DATA ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION 49 5.0 Introduction to data analysis and presentation 49 5.1 Conceptual Framework 49 5.2 Revenue Administration and Own Source Revenue (OSR) 53 5.3 Resource endowment and Own Source Revenue 55 5.4 Urbanization and Own Source Revenue 60 5.5 Crime rate and Own Source Revenue (OSR) 61 CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 63 6.0 Conclusions 63 6.1 Study Recommendations 64 6.2 Recommendations for further research 71 REFERENCES 72 추상 76 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 79 ; Master

학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 국제대학원 국제학과(국제지역학전공), 2020. 8. 한정훈. ; 2010 년 케냐 헌법의 공표 후, 혁명 정부 시스템은 케냐 중앙 정부의 반독립 총재들이 이끄는 47 개의 분리 된 부대를 설립했다. 카운티 정부가 관할 지역 및 지역 사회에서 서비스를 제공하는 데 최적으로 운영 되려면 정부로부터 공평한 지분을 보충하기 위해 자체 소스 수익 (OSR)을 생성해야합니다. 카운티의 자체 소스 수익 향상은 케냐 헌법 제 209 조 제 3 항에 의해 제재 된 재정적 의무를 충족시키는 데 핵심입니다. 이로 인해 카운티는 중앙 정부로부터 더 많은 재정적 자율권을 갖게 될 것입니다. 케냐에서 14 개 카운티의 OSB C.o.B, OSR 보고서는 2013/2014 회계 연도에 소외된 지방 정부가 설정 한 수준 아래로 떨어졌으며 또한 47 개 카운티 중 OSR의 편차가 있음을 강조했습니다. 이 연구의 이론은 다른 정부 정부의 지역 사회 경제 발전에 미치는 영향과 지역에 서비스를 제공하려는 욕구를 고려하여 중앙 정부에서 케냐에서 케냐의 카운티 정부 재정 자율의 중요성에 의해 주어진다 관할 지역 내 커뮤니티 커뮤니티. 이 연구는 알려진 소스에서 분산 소스로서의 사회적 현상 인 범죄의 알려지지 않은 영향에 이르기까지 카운티 자체 소스 수익 (OSR)의 분산 소스를 평가하기 위해 설정되었습니다. 그 중점은 2013 년부터 2019 년까지 47 개 카운티 정부에서 혁명이 시작된시기입니다. 범죄의 경제적, 사회적 비용에 특히 중점을두고 목표는 다른 카운티의 범죄 유병률이 OSR (자신의 소스 수익) 동원에 영향을 미치는지 확인하는 것입니다. 케냐의 OSR (카운티 소유 소스 수익)과 관련하여 범죄율 유병률과 재정 자율성 (재정 자율성)의 연계는이 연구 분야에 대한 작은 문헌에서 알 수 있듯이 덜 탐구되는 분야입니다. 이 연구는 범죄 유병률이 개별 케냐 카운티 자체 소스 수익 동원에 미치는 영향을 다룰 것입니다. 둘째, 카운티 자신의 소스 수익의 세 번째 변화 원인은 무엇입니까? 셋째, 국가가 분리 된 지배 구조 시스템을 채택하도록 자극 한 이유는 무엇이며 범죄 통제와 관련하여 카운티 정부의 역할은 무엇입니까. 이 프로젝트는 카운티마다 다른 정도의 재정적 자율성과 OSR과 관련하여 재정적 자율성 수준의 불일치의 원인을 식별 할 수 있다는 점을 고려해야합니다. 연구 데이터는 예산 케냐 (CoB) 국가 경찰 서비스국 (NPS), 케냐 수익 할당위원회 (CRA)의 2 차 데이터 보고서에서 얻은 것입니다. 이번 조사 결과에 따르면 각 카운티의 범죄 유병률은 경제 및 사회 범죄 비용의 부정적인 영향으로 인해 자체 소스 수익 (OSR) 동원에 부정적인 영향을 미칩니다. 이 연구는 케냐의 범죄 유병률을 줄이기위한 두 수준의 정부의보다 강력한 협력을 제안한다. 범죄의 유병률이 높을수록 OSR이 낮아져 카운티들 사이에 재정적 스트레스가 발생하고 중앙 정부에 대한 재정적 자율성 상실로 이어지기 때문에 재정 자율성 상실로 이어진다. 범죄 확산이 카운티 운영에 영향을 미치기 때문에 적절한 범죄 예방 정책을 채택하고 더 많은 보안 역할을 분담해야합니다 ; Following the promulgation of the Kenyan Constitution in 2010, a Devolutionary system of government was establishing 47 devolved units led by semi-independent governors from the central government of Kenya. For the County Governments to operate optimally in delivery of services in their areas of Jurisdiction and local community, they are required to generate their Own Source Revenue (OSR) to supplement the equitable share from the National Government. Enhancement of Own Source Revenue in counties is core to meeting their financial obligation which is sanctioned by article 209 (3) of the constitution of Kenya. This will give counties a more degree of fiscal autonomy from the central government. Reports from C.o.B, OSR from the 14 counties in Kenya fell below the level set by defunct local governments in 2013/2014 FY and also underscored the existence of variance of OSR among the 47 counties. The theory of this research is given by the importance of the Kenyan devolved County Government Fiscal Autonomy in Kenya from the Central Government, taking into consideration its impact on the economic development of the local communities at different County Governments and the urge to deliver services to local community communities within their jurisdictions. The research is set to assess the sources of variance of Counties Own Source Revenue (OSR) from the known sources to the unknown effect of Crime, a social phenomenon as a source of variance. The focus is the period since year 2013 to year 2019 when devolution came to effect among all the 47 county governments. Specific focus is on the economic and social cost of crime and objectives is to ascertain whether crime prevalence in different counties is a factor on Own Source Revenue (OSR) mobilization. The nexus between crime rate prevalence and Fiscal Autonomy with reference to Counties Own Source Revenue (OSR) in Kenya is a field that is less explored as shown by little literature on this area of research. This research will address the effects of crime prevalence on individual Kenyan Counties Own Source Revenue mobilization. Second, what are the other know sources of variance in Counties Own Source Revenue ,third, what triggered the country to adopt a devolved system of governance, and finally, what are the roles of County Governments with reference to control of crime. My consideration is that this project will be able to identify the different degrees of fiscal autonomy among counties and possible causes of discrepancy of levels of fiscal autonomy with reference to OSR among them The research Data were sourced from secondary data reports from Controller of budget Kenya (CoB) National police service (NPS), Commission of Revenue Allocation, Kenya (CRA) The findings shows that crime prevalence in different Counties to a great extent have a negative effect on Own source Revenue (OSR) mobilization because of the negative effect of the Economic and Social cost of crime This study proposes stronger cooperation of the two levels of governments in reducing crime prevalence in Kenya, since the more the prevalence of crime the lower the OSR hence causing fiscal stress among counties and over dependence on the central government leading to loss of Fiscal Autonomy. Proper crime prevention policy ought to be adopted and more security roles should be devolved since crime prevalence affect the counties operations. ; CHAPTER ONE: GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Problem statement 6 1.2 Study Objective 8 1.2.1 General Objective 8 1.2.2 Specific Objectives. 8 1.3 The study setting and justification 9 CHAPTER TWO: DEVOLUTION IN KENYA 11 2.0 Devolved Governance in Kenya 11 2.1 Structure of devolution in Kenya 13 2.2 Path to Devolution 13 2.3 Financing of County Governments. 16 2.4 Achievements and challenges of devolution policy in Kenya 19 2.5 Role of County Governments in containing crime 21 CHAPTER THREE: LITERATURE REVIEW 25 3.0. Autonomy of County Governments 25 3.1 Fiscal autonomy 28 3.2 Fiscal stress 30 3.3 Variance of Own Source Revenue 32 3.4 Crime and Own Source Revenue (OSR) 33 3.5 Classification of Crimes. 34 3.5.1 International Classification of Crime 34 3.5.2 Classification of crime in Kenya 35 3.6 Theoretical framework of crime 38 3.6.1 Anomie Theory 38 3.7 Economic cost of crime 41 3.8 Conclusion 44 CHAPTER FOUR: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 45 4.0 Introduction 45 4.1 Data Sources 45 4.2 Data Analysis 47 4.3 Unit of Analysis and Scope of the Study 48 4.4 Problems Encountered 48 CHAPTER FIVE: DATA ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION 49 5.0 Introduction to data analysis and presentation 49 5.1 Conceptual Framework 49 5.2 Revenue Administration and Own Source Revenue (OSR) 53 5.3 Resource endowment and Own Source Revenue 55 5.4 Urbanization and Own Source Revenue 60 5.5 Crime rate and Own Source Revenue (OSR) 61 CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 63 6.0 Conclusions 63 6.1 Study Recommendations 64 6.2 Recommendations for further research 71 REFERENCES 72 추상 76 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 79 ; Master

Nicht-erneuerbare oder erschöpfbare Ressourcen beziehen sich auf die Ressourcen, deren Gesamtbestand in der Erde über den für die menschliche Planung relevanten Zeitraum konstant ist. Aufgrund ihrer begrenzten Verfügbarkeit und wichtigen Anwendungen in der Entwicklung der menschlichen Gesellschaft ist ihrer Versorgungssicherheit immer mehr Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt worden. Darüber hinaus sind schlimme Umweltauswirkungen und riesige Mengen an Abfällen während der Produktions- und Verbrauchsprozesse nicht-erneuerbarer Ressourcen und Materialien entstanden. Recycling ist ein wirksamer Weg gegen diese Probleme. Ein Recyclingprozess setzt sich normalerweise aus zwei Teilen zusammen: zuerst werden die verwertbaren Materialien am Ende der Produktlebensdauer wiederverarbeiet und dann in die Lieferkette zurückgeschickt. Diese Arbeit befasst sich überwiegend mit dem Gleichgewicht eines erschöpfbaren Ressourcenmarktes mit Recyclingaktivitäten. Boyce (2012) baut ein solches Modell, das auf der berühmten Hotelling-Regel basiert. Diese Regel besagt, dass der Nettopreis, auch als Knappheitsprämie bezeichnet, einer erschöpfbaren Ressource im Laufe der Zeit mit der Zinsrate in einem wettbewerblichen Marktgleichgewicht anwachsen sollte. Seiner Ansicht nach sind Sammlungsaktivitäten nur dann wirtschaftlich, wenn der aktuelle Wert der erschöpfbaren Ressourceneinheiten die Sammlungskosten übersteigt. Die externe Validität dieses Modells wird dann durch ökonomische Laborexperimente verifiziert. In jeder Session des Basis-Treatments werden zwei exakt identische Runden (oder Märkte) zum Testen der Lerneffekte durchgeführt. In den Perioden, in denen Sammlung theoretisch wirtschaftlich ist, erscheint in den beiden Märkten die Recyclingperformance mit der Standardentwicklung übereinzustimmen. In den Perioden, in denen sich Sammlung theoretisch nicht lohnt, ist jedoch die Recyclingperformance der zweiten Märkte schlechter als die der ersten Märkte. Darüber hinaus spiegelt sich die Knappheit der erschöpfbaren Ressource in den frühen Perioden der beiden Märkte nicht wider. Die unbefriedigenden experimentellen Ergebnisse lassen sich durch "rolling planning horizons" erklären. Jeder Agent machte einen Plan für eine begrenzte Anzahl von Perioden und aktualisierte ihn regelmäßig. Nur die erste Periode wurde durchgeführt und dann ein neuer Plan für eine ebenso lange Zukunft gemacht. Da der verbleibende Ressourcenbestand in den frühen Perioden hoch war und seine Handelsentscheidungen für den Planungshorizont immer erfüllt werden konnten, war in den frühen Perioden die Ressourcenbeschränkung nicht bindend und es bestand kein Zusammenhang zwischen der Preisentwicklung und dem Zinssatz. Mit weiteren Transaktionen wurde der Ressourcenbestand jedoch schließlich so klein, dass er innerhalb des Planungshorizonts erschöpft sein könnte. Die neuen Pläne mussten die bindende Ressourcenbeschränkung berücksichtigen und die Knappheit der erschöpfbaren Ressource wurde schließlich Teil ihres Preises. Obwohl die Probanden die Knappheit ihrer Ressourceneinheiten seit der letzten Phase der ersten Märkte bemerkt und berücksichtigt haben könnten, trafen sie in den fühen Perioden der zweiten Märkte sogar höhere Recyclingentscheidungen. Das Sammlungskriterium von Boyce (2012) erhielt in den beiden Märkten keine Unterstützung. Das komplexe Design des Basis-Treatments könnte die dynamische Optimierung erschweren, da die Probanden in einem intertemporalen Kontext Preis-, Handels- und Recyclingentscheidungen treffen mussten. In einem neuen Treatment, nämlich dem Recycling-Treatment, wird mehr Aufmerksamkeit auf Recyclingentscheidungen gelenkt werden. In diesem Treatment sollten Sammlungsaktivitäten nur dann stattfinden, wenn der Transaktionspreis einer recycelten erschöpfbaren Ressourceneinheit die durch Recycling- und Produktionsaktivitäten entstehenden Gesamtkosten übersteigt. Damit der Einfluss sozialer und ökologischer Präferenzen auf Recyclingentscheidungen untersucht werden kann, müssen die Probanden ihr eigenes Umweltbewusstsein im Fragebogen nach dem Experiment bewerten. Die Experimente des Recycling-Treatments zeigten bessere Recyclingperformance, aber nur in den profitablen Perioden für Recycling hatten soziale und ökologische Präferenzen einen klaren positiven Effekt auf Recyclingentscheidungen. Die stark umweltbewussten Probanden wagten sich in den beiden Märkten daran, mit den steigenden vorgegebenen Transaktionspreisen ihre Recyclingmengen stark zu erhöhen. Im Gegensatz dazu könnten die Probanden mit geringerem Umweltbewusstsein mehr auf ihre Payments achten und daher konservative Recyclingstrategien durchgeführt haben. Sie trafen relativ niedrigere Recyclingentscheidungen, um große Verluste zu vermeiden, und erst spät in den zweiten Märkten erhöhten sie ihr Recycling deutlich. ; Non-renewable or exhaustible resources refer to the resources whose total stocks provided by the earth are constant over the period relevant to human planning. Due to their limited availability and important applications in human society development, their supply security has been widely concerned by the public. Moreover, severe environmental impacts and huge amounts of waste have been generated during the extraction, processing and use of these resources and materials. Recycling, a process of reprocessing recoverable materials at the end of product life and sending them back into the supply chain, seems to be an effective way to alleviate the above problems. Although there are technical, economical and practical obstacles to recycling, efforts have been made in the product design stage, the separate collection systems, the cooperation between developing countries and industrialized countries and the effective application of political instruments. The economic models of most interest in this work are those that focus on the competitive equilibrium of an exhaustible resource market with recycling activities. Based on the famous Hotelling rule which argues that the net price (also called the scarcity rent) of a non-renewable resource should rise over time at the rate of interest in a competitive market equilibrium, Boyce (2012) provides a typical model of this kind. In his view, sorting activities are economic only when the current value of the non-renewable resource units exceeds the sorting cost. The external validity of this model is then verified by economics laboratory experiments. Two same rounds (or markets) are conducted in each session of the basic treatment to see whether learning happens. The experimental results, however, "polarize". The recycling performance shown in the periods when sorting is theoretically worthwhile seems to be in line with the standard development in both markets, while the recycling performance of the second markets is even worse than that of the first markets in the periods when sorting is theoretically not economic. Moreover, the scarcity of the non-renewable resource is not reflected in the early periods in both markets. The unsatisfactory experimental results can largely be explained by rolling planning horizons. Each agent made a plan for a finite number of periods and updated it regularly. Only the first period was carried out and a new plan was then made for an equally long future. Since the remaining resource stock was high in the early periods and his trading decisions for the planning horizon could always be met, the resource constraint was not binding and there was no connection between the price development and the interest rate in the early periods. When the resource stock finally became so small that it could be exhausted within the planning horizon, the new plans had to take the binding resource constraint into account and the scarcity of the exhaustible resource finally became a component of its price. However, even though the subjects may have realized and taken the resource scarcity into account since the latter phase of the first markets, they still made even higher recycling decisions in the early periods of the second markets. The subjects did not realize the sorting criterion proposed by Boyce (2012) in both markets. The complex design of the basic treatment makes it difficult for the subjects to do dynamic optimization, since they had to make pricing, trading and recycling decisions in an intertemporal context. A much simplified treatment which focuses on recycling decisions is then proposed. In this new treatment, sorting activities should occur only when the transaction price of a recycled non-renewable resource unit exceeds the total costs incurred by recycling and production activities. In addition, to verify whether and to what extent social and environmental preferences can affect recycling decisions, the subjects are required to evaluate their environmental awareness in the post-experiment questionnaire. Better recycling performance was shown in the experiments of the new treatment. However, environmental awareness had a clear positive impact on recycling decisions only in the periods when recycling is theoretically profitable. The highly environmentally conscious subjects dared to greatly increase their recycling quantities with the increasing predetermined transaction prices in both markets. The subjects with lower environmental awareness might value their payments more and thus haven taken conservative recycling measures. They maintained a relatively low recycling level to avoid big losses and only dared to greatly increase their recycling in the later periods of the second markets.

[eng] This Ph.D. dissertation contributes by shedding new light on three topics that significantly impact housing in urban areas, using fine-grained data. Chapter 2 studies how Airbnb affects a city's housing market. For that, we apply several regression-based approaches that exploit the timing and geography of the entry of Airbnb in Barcelona to estimate the effects of this platform on housing markets. We use high-quality microdata on both rents and prices and combine these data with information on the location of Airbnb activity within the city. The results show that Airbnb activity in Barcelona has increased both rents and housing prices, with larger effects for prices than for rents. Results indicate that, for a neighborhood with the average Airbnb activity in the city, rents have increased by 1.9\%, while transaction prices have increased by 4.6\% and posted prices by 3.7\%. However, in the most touristy parts of the city, the effects of Airbnb are substantially higher. In neighborhoods in the top decile of the Airbnb activity distribution, rents are estimated to increase by as much as 7\%. In contrast, increases in transaction and posted prices are as high as 17\% and 14\%, respectively. Chapter 3 estimates the long-term effects of an increase in the unemployment rate at graduation time on housing tenure and affordability. I exploit the unemployment rate at the time of college graduation as an exogenous income shock to the individual, for a large sample of college graduates since 1960 across Europe. This strategy has been explored extensively for career outcomes, but so far, not for housing tenure and affordability. These two outcomes are essential, as they are key determinants of an individual's welfare. The results show that a one percentage point rise in the unemployment rate at the time of graduation leads to a 1.5 percentage point increase in the probability of living with parents one year after graduation. Additionally, it decreases the probability of renting by 1.02 percentage point and of home-ownership by 0.45 percentage point. Worse initial labor market conditions translate into worse affordability ratios for homeowners and renters due to lower household income and stable rents or prices. Effects are persistent over time and are still present ten years after graduation. I develop an overlapping generations model to link income shocks to younger cohorts to housing tenure and affordability changes. This model provides several predictions. Mainly, that rigidity on the rental market is largely responsible for whether the labor market's welfare shock is absorbed or amplified by the housing market. This rigidity will result from an outside option for landlords, a feature widely documented in the literature. In particular, if rental markets are rigid, an income shock to young agents will create a shift away from renting and ownership in favor of the parental home. Additionally, this shock worsens affordability for both renters and owners, as their income drops while housing costs do not. This scenario leads to significant welfare losses for young cohorts, while older agents become relatively wealthier and are better off. I find that housing aid policies such as the \textit{Aide Personnalisée au Logement} (APL) in France can help mitigate the income shock by enabling young agents to afford to rent. However, these policies only improve young agents' welfare when implemented in rigid rental markets, pointing towards the importance of identifying the correct conditions for applying these policies. Chapter 4 studies the dynamics of land development in Spanish municipalities having experienced a flood over the last 30 years. For that, we use changes in surface, distance to flood zones and water bodies, and elevation of new development compared to the year before a flood event. Our empirical strategy relies on the assumption that conditional on municipality and year fixed-effects, the timing and the extent of a flood is as good as random. We also study the impact of floods on several other economic indicators, including employment and migration patterns. Our main results indicate that, on average, experiencing a flood does not affect new development. Development takes place at a pace similar to that of the year previous to the flood. Additionally, we find that new construction does not take place farther away from the flood zones nor on higher ground. When analyzing development's final use, we find that residential buildings are being built at the same rate as before the flood. A flood event does not significantly affect other key economic variables, such as unemployment or migration. Nonetheless, municipalities with low development levels in the decade before the flood experience a housing boom after the event. New development increases permanently by 25\% compared to the year previous to the flood for these cities. Cities having experienced high levels of development before the flood experience a 27\% permanent drop in new construction compared to before the event. Finally, we study an EU directive mandating EU member states to identify flood-prone areas, named ARPSIs. In the Spanish case, this directive identified areas that were not previously considered dangerous. Still, it was not accompanied by any regulation designed to restrict future development. We compare areas that were newly declared as potentially hazardous to areas close to water bodies but were not affected by the policy. Overall, signaling areas as potentially high-risk does not deter development from taking place near such areas. We can draw three main lessons from this research in terms of policy design. First, home-sharing platforms can increase housing prices in cities like Barcelona, particularly in the most touristy neighborhoods. This points towards the potential effects that regulating these platforms' activities can have on housing affordability. Second, the success of policies directed to improving housing affordability and accessibility for young people can depend heavily on the rental market conditions. In particular, even when policies are targeted towards the young and least well-off population, benefits can still be captured by wealthier and older landlords, leaving the targeted population worse off. Third, signaling certain areas as potentially dangerous is not enough to deter development from taking place near such areas. In particular, if restrictions are not enforced after signaling areas as high-risk, it can lead to overdeveloping close to these zones, exposing more construction to potential flood risks.

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Nurses in Sri Lanka attend to their work. Photo: Dominic Sansoni/World Bank






















The COVID-19 pandemic is prompting a fresh look at options to ensure reliable power for health facilities , including the Vavuniya General Hospital in Sri Lanka's Northern Province. In line with an overall push to boost the share of renewables, the government of Sri Lanka is pursuing new power solutions for Vavuniya and about 20 other hospitals across the nation.

The World Bank is assisting as part of a multi-sectoral pandemic response in Sri Lanka. Similar initiatives are underway in other countries around the world, including Afghanistan, Madagascar, and Nigeria, to name a few.

Parts of a solution

Distributed photovoltaics (DPV), installed on rooftops or open spaces near buildings, are proliferating as a low-cost option for emergency power supplies. Many developing countries already use DPV as a long-term primary or secondary power source for health care facilities in rural and urban settings. While operating costs are minimal, average investment costs are dramatically lower today than even a few years ago, making DPV more economically attractive. When coupled with batteries, which are also becoming cheaper, DPV systems can contribute to reliable power around the clock.

With these solutions, diesel generators can become more of a last resort, instead of being the main or only source of essential back-up power when the grid is unavailable. Less use of diesel generators helps avoid the high cost of fuel, vulnerability to shortages, and toxic emissions.

Diverse technology options are available for distributed renewables. They range from individual components to pre-packaged "box" solutions which combine DPV, batteries and generators of varying sizes, including up to mini-grid level for larger sites. Under the auspices of the Energy Storage Partnership facilitated by the World Bank, a survey of suppliers has found that significant inventory is available despite logistics disruptions.

Electrical devices are also increasingly available in more energy efficient models, which can help avoid oversized power systems in new health care units. Correct system sizing is crucial where financial resources are limited, but many variables need to be considered.

For example, the electricity needs of intensive care units (ICU) differ greatly depending on how many beds are occupied: temporary ICU wards need significant power, but only for a limited time period. Another key factor to consider is that electricity demand from certain medical services may drop while stay-at-home measures are in force. For instance, some hospitals are deferring elective surgeries during the crisis. System sizing strategies need to examine such factors when addressing the health care sector's power needs in response to the pandemic.

Bringing the parts together

Given all the options, what tools are available to design power solutions for hospitals without full grid electricity? One resource is the HOMER Powering Health Tool, a free online model to help simplify the design process for distributed generation systems for health care facilities. Standing for Hybrid Optimization Model for Multiple Energy Resources, HOMER is a leading resource for mini-grid analyses.

Originally commissioned for USAID's Powering Health program, the HOMER Powering Health Tool has recently been updated to reflect typical COVID-19 response needs with support from the World Bank's Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). Users enter the electrical needs manually or select default values for pre-listed devices from one of four health facility tiers as a starting point. The tiers include, for example, a small rural dispensary that would typically screen and refer serious cases to larger facilities such as a district hospital. Based on user inputs, the tool calculates least-cost combinations of batteries, PV, and diesel generators sets – including as back-up to grid electricity if this is available for some hours each day.

The tool runs entirely online and can be used an unlimited number of times with no need to sign in or to download a software. It's kept simple for non-specialists to use without requiring special training. This comes with limitations, of course. For certain advanced needs, other products are available, such as the full, licensed software of HOMER Energy by UL or the free System Advisor Model (SAM) of the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The latter is especially useful for systems that may feed DPV power to the grid when it is not needed on site. In Sri Lanka, the World Bank is applying these tools to optimize solutions to strengthen power for Vavuniya and other hospitals.

From one to many

With a standard lifetime of 20 years, DPV systems can supply clean energy to the national grid. They can also become the backbone of community mini-grids. The value of both options goes well beyond the pandemic. DPV can help not only the consumers who host the systems but also a power system that it feeds. DPV can reduce grid congestion and energy losses for utilities. It can also displace more costly generation from wholesale sources while promoting resilience.

Sri Lanka has already been promoting DPV such as through its Rooftop Solar Power Generation Project, in partnership with the Asian Development Bank. Nationwide, rooftop installations are on track to reach a total of 200 megawatts capacity by the end of 2020, equivalent to around 7 percent of system peak demand. Northern Province alone has added over 3 megawatts since 2017, including 17 projects in Vavuniya for businesses and households. Consumers with DPV can choose to feed some or all the power generated into the national grid through the utility providers. In all cases, the DPV significantly reduces consumers' bills while providing clean energy to the system at a lower cost than fuel-based generation for grid.

Sri Lanka's initiative shows that solutions to the current crisis can also address longer-term challenges. With a strategic approach, health care facilities can be well-positioned to combat COVID-19 while preparing for the "new normal."

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https://www.linkedin.com/in/alandlee/




Alan David Lee
Senior Energy and Climate Change Specialist
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https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrea-arricale/




Andrea Arricale
Energy Access Consultant
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Background as of March 2019As a result of the health monitoring carried out by the members of ANSES's Expert Committee and our ANSES employees, we became aware of an alert concerning an emerging tomato virus: tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV).Tomato brown rugose fruit virus is an emerging tobamovirus first reported in 2014 in Israel and 2015 in Jordan on greenhouse tomatoes. In 2018, it was also reported in Mexico (where its eradication is under way), and in the United States where it was eradicated in the same year. Within the European Union (EU), it was reported in Germany in 2018 (North Rhine-Westphalia where its eradication is under way) and in Italy (Sicily) in early 2019. This virus was also the subject of an alert in the Bulletin de Santé du Végétal (BSV) for the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA) region in December 2018. It was added to the alert list of the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO) in January 2019 and was the subject of an alert sheet issued by ANSES's Laboratory for Plant Health (LSV_2019_03_0027).The main host plants of ToBRFV are tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) and pepper (Capsicum annuum). The damage observed on greenhouse tomato plants includes chlorosis, mosaic and mottling on the leaves and necrotic spots on peduncles, calyces and flower stalks. Fruits show yellowor brown spots with characteristic rugose symptoms, and may be deformed and ripen irregularly, making them non-marketable. The incidence of the disease varies between 10 and 100% of fruit depending on the site. Similar symptoms have also been observed on Capsicum annuum fruits inMexico. Viruses belonging to the genus Tobamovirus have a particularly effective means of spread. Transmission is mechanical, through simple direct contact between plants or via hands, work tools, clothing, pollinating insects, birds or irrigation water. Seeds can also transmit tobamoviruses. Lastly, these viruses are highly stable and can survive for several months on inert media without any loss of infectivity. These epidemiological characteristics make tobamoviruses a formidable threat to highdensity crops such as those grown in greenhouses.The long-lasting resistance carried by the Tm-2 and Tm-2 2 genes deployed in tomato varieties in production since the 1970s has led to a considerable reduction in the negative impacts associated with other tobamoviruses (tomato mosaic virus and tobacco mosaic virus). However, these genes are ineffective against ToBRFV. The lack of resistance in tomatoes therefore particularly jeopardises this production sector, which has so far been spared.1.2 Purpose of the requestIn view of the importance of the greenhouse tomato production sector in France, the high infectivity of this virus and the susceptibility of the tomato, the succession of reports at production sites on several continents and especially within the EU, and the lack of regulatory measures against thisvirus, which could lead to certain high risk pathways, you are asked to carry out an express risk assessment of ToBRFV in order to:(i) assess the probability of introduction and spread of ToBRFV and the scale of the potential economic impacts in metropolitan France, (ii) propose possible management measures in the event of an unacceptable risk to the production sector. ; Contexte en mars 2019Grâce à la veille sanitaire réalisée par les membres du Comité d'Experts Spécialisé de l'Anses et nos agents Anses, une alerte nous est parvenue concernant un virus émergent de la tomate : le Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV).Le Tomato brown rugose fruit virus est un tobamovirus émergent dont les premiers signalements datent de 2014 en Israël et de 2015 en Jordanie sur des tomates produites sous serre. En 2018, il a été également signalé au Mexique (où il est en cours d'éradication) et aux Etats-Unis où il a étééradiqué la même année. Au sein de l'Union européenne (UE), il a été signalé en Allemagne en 2018 (Rhénanie-du-Nord-Westphalie, où il est en cours d'éradication) et en Italie (Sicile) début 2019.Ce virus a fait également l'objet d'une alerte dans le bulletin de santé du végétal (BSV) – ProvenceAlpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA) en décembre 2018. Il a été ajouté à la liste d'alerte de l'OEPP (Organisation Européenne et Méditerranéenne pour la Protection des Plantes) en janvier 2019 et ila fait l'objet d'une fiche d'alerte émise par le Laboratoire de la Santé des Végétaux (LSV_2019_03_0027).Les plantes hôtes principales du ToBRFV sont la tomate (Solanum lycopersicum) et le piment (Capsicum annuum). Les dégâts observés sur tomate en production sous serre incluent des chloroses, des mosaïques et des marbrures sur les feuilles, ainsi que des taches nécrotiques sur les pédoncules, calices et pédoncules floraux. Les fruits présentent des taches jaunes ou brunes, avec des symptômes de rugosité caractéristiques, et peuvent être déformés et avoir une maturation irrégulière, et ainsi devenir non commercialisables. L'incidence de la maladie varie entre 10 et 100%de fruits atteints selon les sites. Des symptômes similaires ont également été observés sur les fruits de Capsicum annuum au Mexique.Le mode de dissémination des virus appartenant au genre Tobamovirus est particulièrement efficace. La transmission est mécanique par simple contact direct entre les plantes ou via les mains, les outils de travail, les vêtements, les insectes pollinisateurs, les oiseaux et l'eau d'irrigation. Lessemences peuvent également transmettre les tobamovirus. Enfin, ces virus sont très stables : ils peuvent en effet survivre plusieurs mois sur des supports inertes sans perte de pouvoir infectieux. Ces caractéristiques épidémiologiques rendent les tobamovirus redoutables dans les cultures à haute densité de plantation comme les cultures conduites sous serre.La résistance durable portée par les gènes Tm-2 et Tm-22 et déployée dans les variétés de tomates de production depuis les années 1970 a permis une réduction considérable des impacts négatifs liés à d'autres tobamovirus (tomato mosaic virus et tobacco mosaic virus principalement). Or, ces gènes sont inefficaces contre le ToBRFV. L'absence de résistance chez la tomate met donc particulièrement en péril cette filière de production jusque-là épargnée.Objet de la saisine : Compte tenu de l'importance de la filière de production de tomates sous serre en France, du fort caractère infectieux de ce virus et de la sensibilité de la tomate, de la succession des signalements dans des sites de production sur plusieurs continents et plus particulièrement au sein de l'UE et de l'absence de mesure réglementaire vis-à-vis de ce virus qui pourrait engendrer des filières d'entrée à risque, il vous est demandé de réaliser une évaluation de risque simplifiée du ToBRFV afin de : (i) évaluer la probabilité d'introduction et de dissémination du ToBRFV et l'ampleur des impacts économiques potentiels sur le territoire français métropolitain,(ii) proposer des options de mesures de gestion en cas de risque inacceptable pour la filière de production.

Das Tibet-Plateau mit seinen angrenzenden Gebirgszügen (TP) ist eines der markantesten geologischen Merkmale auf der Erde. Es spielt eine wesentliche Rolle als beeinflussender Faktor der globalen atmosphärischen Zirkulation, auf ihm entspringen mehrere der größten asiatischen Flüsse und große Mengen Eis, Schnee und Permafrost sind auf ihm gespeichert. Das Klima auf dem TP unterliegt sowohl dem Einfluss der Westwinde der mittleren Breiten, als auch des asiatischen Monsuns. Allerdings ist die Interaktion dieser beiden Faktoren und ihr jeweiliger Beitrag zu regionaler Klimavariabilität und Klimawandel noch ungenügend verstanden. Der beobachtete Rückgang von Gletschern und Seespiegelschwankungen deutet auf einen möglichen Klimawandel hin, aber die starke räumliche Variabilität dieser Phänomene erschwert die Interpretation bezüglich klimatischer Antriebe. Trotz dieser Relevanz ist das Wissen über Klima und Wasserkreislauf des Tibet-Plateaus stark begrenzt. Aus geschichtlichen und politischen Gründen sind direkte Messdaten aus der Region spärlich und für die hohen Lagen des Tibet-Plateaus kaum vorhanden. In dieser Arbeit stelle ich einen Lösungsansatz für dieses Problem vor: einen neuen hochaufgelösten atmosphärischen Datensatz, die High Asia Reanalysis (HAR). Die HAR wurde mittels dynamischem Downscaling globaler Analysedaten unter Verwendung des Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Modells für die Periode 2001-2011 generiert. Dieser neue Datensatz liefert bodennahe und atmosphärische Variablen in hoher räumlicher (bis zu 10 km) und zeitlicher (stündlich) Auflösung. Um eine geeignete Modellkonfiguration zur Erstellung der HAR zu ermitteln, wurden verschiedene Konfigurationen getestet und mit Beobachtungen während eines Starkniederschlagsereignisses auf dem TP verglichen. Dies ging mit der Entwicklung neuer Evaluierungsmethoden einher, um die unbekannte Genauigkeit und die mangelhafte räumliche Repräsentation der Verhältnisse auf dem TP durch Beobachtungen zu berücksichtigen. Zusätzlich wurde eine automatische Wetterstation (AWS) auf dem Zhadang-Gletscher (südzentrales TP) in 5600 m ü.NN installiert. Diese AWS liefert einmalige Daten aus großer Höhe für diese Region. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass HAR bekannte räumliche Niederschlagsmuster und deren Saisonalität reproduziert. Zudem liefert sie im Vergleich zu bereits existierenden Datensätzen auf Grund ihrer hohen Auflösung wichtige Zusatzinformationen im Bereich der Schneefalleigenschaften, Niederschlagsfrequenzen oder orographischen Niederschläge. Die Muster der Niederschlagssaisonalität auf dem TP sind komplex und durch ein Winterregime im Westen, ein Frühlingsregime im nördlichen und südlichen TP und ein Sommerregime in den übrigen Regionen bestimmt. Zusammenhänge zur Interpretation der Gletscherveränderungen werden durch eine neue Klassifikation von Gletscherakkumulationsregimen veranschaulicht. Zusätzlich treten Regionen mit höherer interannueller Variabilität und Anfälligkeit für Starkniederschlagsereignisse hervor. Ein weiteres Ziel der HAR ist die Bereitstellung von Antriebsdaten für Wirkmodelle (z.B. hydrologische und glaziologische Modelle). Daher wird das Potenzial der HAR als "Ersatz" für Beobachtungen am Beispiel der komplexen räumlichen Begebenheiten am Zhadang-Gletscher gezeigt. Es ist von besonderem Interesse die starke räumliche Variabilität des Niederschlags und seiner Charakteristika im Hinblick auf sowohl (i) großskalige Antriebsfaktoren des Klimasystems wie die Westwinde und den Asiatischen Monsun, als auch (ii) lokale Einflüsse wie Seen und Topographie zu analysieren. In diesem Zusammenhang präsentiert die Arbeit interdisziplinäre Projekte, die neue Herangehensweisen entwickeln und die HAR mit Feldmessungen, Fernerkundungsmethoden und glaziologischer Modellierung kombinieren. Aus Satellitenbildern gewonnene Flächenänderungen zeigen, dass der Zhadang Gletscher mindestens seit 1976 zurückgeht. Eine physikalisch basierte Modellkette ermöglicht es, die Massenbilanz am Zhadang mit der Dynamik des Asiatischen Monsuns in Verbindung zu bringen. Sie zeigt, dass der Zeitpunkt des Monsunbeginns einen deutlichen Fußabdruck auf dem Gletscher durch den Albedoeffekt hinterlässt. Je später im Jahr sich die Monsunzirkulation einstellt, desto höher ist der resultierende Massenverlust auf dem Gletscher. Unter Verwendung der HAR und idealisierter Modellexperimente wurde der nahegelegene Nam Co See als ein weiterer wichtiger Faktor identifiziert, der den lokalen Niederschlag durch Abschwächung der Konvektion im Sommer und Verstärkung des Schneefalls im Herbst beeinflusst. Die meisten Seen auf dem TP frieren im Winter zu. Der Zeitpunkt des Zufrierens und weitere Eisphänologiemaße enthalten nützliche Informationen zur Klimavariabilität. In diesem Sinn bringt eine weitere Studie die HAR Temperaturdaten mit satellitengestützten Eisphänologiemaßen in Zusammenhang. Die vorliegende Arbeit bietet ein solides wissenschaftliches Gerüst für ähnliche Projekte, die sich mit regionaler Reanalyse befassen. Der HAR Datensatz ist für die wissenschaftliche Community frei verfügbar und schafft eine neue Grundlage zum besseren Verständnis von atmosphärischen, kryosphärischen und hydrologischen Prozessen auf dem TP. ; The Tibetan Plateau and adjacent mountain ranges (TP) is one of the most prominent geological features on Earth. It plays a significant role in influencing global atmospheric circulation, is the source of several major Asian rivers, and stores large amounts of ice, snow and permafrost. The climate on the TP is described as being under the influence of both the mid-latitude westerlies and the Asian Monsoon, but their contributions to regional climate variability and change, as well as their interactions, are not yet understood in detail. Observed glacier retreat and lake level fluctuations are indicators of climate change, but the strong spatial variability of these indicators make interpretations difficult in terms of climatic drivers. Despite its crucial importance, knowledge about the TP's climate and hydrology is still limited. For historical, political and logistical reasons, in situ observations are scarce and biased towards lower elevations. To address this issue, I present a new high-resolution atmospheric dataset: the High Asia Reanalysis (HAR), generated by dynamical downscaling of global analysis data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the period of 2001-2011. The new dataset provides three-dimensional meteorological variables at high spatial (up to 10 km) and temporal (hourly) resolution. In order to find a suitable design for HAR, several model designs and configurations were tested and compared to observations during a strong precipitation event on the TP. New methods of evaluation were developed to address issues related to the unknown accuracy and the low spatial representativeness of available observations. Additionally, an automatic weather station was installed at 5600 m a.s.l. on Zhadang Glacier, south-central TP, which provides exceptional observations of a high-altitude environment. Results show that HAR reproduces previously reported spatial patterns and seasonality of precipitation. The high resolution of HAR adds value to existing datasets regarding snowfall retrieval, precipitation frequency and orographic precipitation. Precipitation seasonality patterns on the TP are complex and characterised by a winter regime in the west, a spring regime in northern and southern TP, and a summer regime elsewhere. Implications for the interpretation of glacier changes are illustrated with a new classification of glacier accumulation regimes. Additionally, regions with higher inter-annual variability and/or that are prone to severe precipitation events are identified. Since an additional goal of HAR is to provide forcing data for impact models (e.g. hydrological or glaciological models), the potential of HAR as a "replacement" for observations is demonstrated, focusing on the Zhadang Glacier. The strong spatial variability of precipitation features is of particular interest, in light of (i) large-scale drivers of the climate system like the westerlies and the Asian Monsoon, as well as (ii) local influences, such as lakes and topography. In this respect, multidisciplinary projects are presented, which develop new approaches combining HAR with field measurements, remote sensing techniques and glaciological modelling. Area changes acquired from satellite imagery show that the Zhadang Glacier is retreating since at least 1976. A physically based modelling chain permits the mass balance at Zhadang to be linked to Asian Monsoon dynamics, and reveals that the timing of monsoon onset leaves a clear footprint on the glacier through the albedo effect. The later the monsoon is established in a particular year, the higher the resulting mass loss on the glacier. Using HAR and idealised model experiments, the nearby Nam Co lake is identified as another important factor affecting local precipitation, by weakening convection in summer and enhancing snowfall in autumn. Most lakes on the TP freeze in winter. The timing of freezing and other ice phenology metrics hold useful information about climate variability, as shown in a further study linking HAR temperature data with ice phenology metrics obtained from satellite observations. This thesis provides a robust scientific framework for related regional reanalysis projects at TU Berlin or elsewhere. The HAR dataset, which is freely available to the scientific community, provides a valuable basis for improving our understanding of atmospheric, cryospheric and hydrospheric processes on the TP.

The present cumulative dissertation comprises four research articles dealing with different aspects of landscape development and land use change in two marginalized regions of Europe. In order to explore the limitations and potentials regions with traditional cultural landscapes face in their regional development and which changes the landscapes undergo in the process, two case study regions were investigated exemplarily. Gyimes in the Eastern Carpathians of Romania and Las Hurdes in Extremadura, Spain, were chosen to test three initially formulated hypotheses. Firstly, it was assumed that traditional cultural landscapes in Europe today have been preserved due to reasons that can be generalized across the continent. The first set of research questions dealt with what these reasons are and whether the remaining cultural landscapes of Europe have a common denominator. Secondly, the empirical fact that many of the traditional cultural landscapes in Europe are facing changes and decline, was supposed to occur mainly due to outside influences. Taking Gyimes and Las Hurdes as concrete examples, the ongoing changes and their underlying reasons were explored, questioning whether the land use systems that once created the landscapes still persisted. Thirdly, out of the various outside influencing factors two were isolated – regulatory policies and the outside perception – and it was attempted to draw casual relationships from the sources of these influencing factors to their impacts on the field level. The investigation was carried out using literature review, a questionnaire survey of tourists, an interview survey of households and expert interviews for data collection from 2006 to 2010. The generated data was then utilized for a livelihood analysis of households in Gyimes and Las Hurdes and a policy analysis of the regulatory framework of agricultural, rural and regional development policies aimed at the regions. It could be shown that the studied traditional cultural landscapes have survived due to isolation, difficult site conditions for agricultural production and a population that often differed from the surrounding national mainstream. The biased outside perception that characterized both regions in former times, continued to play a role in their current development. This observation was more evident in the case of Gyimes, where inhabitants reacted to the expectations of Hungarian tourists and started to arrange the landscape according to the outside perception. The complex land use systems that once created the still visible landscape features were in decline and loosing complexity and importance as a source of income in both regions. A small number of households continued with agriculture, mainly for household consumption, and only a fraction of them invested in modernized forms of production. The households that were found to most likely maintain the traditional cultural landscape were also frequently the ones not eligible for any rural development support. The assumption was made that Las Hurdes, were agricultural transformation had taken place decades ago, could be a future scenario for Gyimes as regards the shift away from the primary sector, land abandonment and simultaneous agricultural intensification and depopulation leading to the loss of the traditional cultural landscape. The analyzed policies affecting the regions have not been able to stop these developments, although they were partly specifically aimed at them, as in the case of Spanish rural development programs. CAP direct payments were found to have mainly negative impacts on Gyimes and Las Hurdes, together with a few positive indirect ones. Rural development measures on the other hand had a slight positive effect that was difficult to quantify. Finally, the conclusion was drawn that European rural development policy would best be able to support marginalized rural areas if restructured and aimed more specifically at areas in real need of public support. Taking into account global agricultural challenges and the fact that rural development today requires much more than the support of agriculture, the present study finally suggests a reorientation of agricultural policy in favor of bottom-up, regional solutions that combine traditional production systems well adapted to local site conditions with modern technology to provide local livelihoods, good quality food and ecological sustainability. ; Die vorliegende kumulative Dissertation besteht aus vier Forschungsartikeln, die sich mit verschiedenen Aspekten der Landschaftsentwicklung und des Landnutzungswandels in zwei marginalisierten Gebieten Europas befasst. Um zu erkunden, welche Hemmnisse und Potentiale Regionen mit traditionellen Kulturlandschaften in ihrer Regionalentwicklung haben und welchem Wandel sie in dem Prozess unterworfen sind, wurden exemplarisch zwei Fallbeispiele untersucht. Gyimes in den rumänischen Ostkarpaten und Las Hurdes in der spanischen Extremadura wurden ausgewählt, um drei eingangs formulierte Hypothesen zu testen. Als erstes wurde vorausgesetzt, dass heutige traditionelle Kulturlandschaften in Europa aus Gründen erhalten geblieben sind, die für den europäischen Kontinent verallgemeinbar sind. Die erste Gruppe von Forschungsfragen suchte nach diesen Gründen und fragte nach dem eventuellen gemeinsamen Nenner der erhaltenen europäischen Kulturlandschaften. Zweitens wurde von der empirischen Tatsache, dass sich viele der traditionellen Kulturlandschaften verändern und verschwinden, angenommen, dass sie auf äußere Faktoren zurückzuführen ist. Anhand der konkreten Beispiele Gyimes und Las Hurdes wurde geprüft, welche die Veränderungen und ihre Ursachen waren und ob die Landnutzungssysteme, die die Landschaften einst hervorgebracht hatten, heute noch Bestand haben. Drittens wurden aus den vielfältigen äußeren Einflussfaktoren zwei herausgewählt – der regulative Rahmen und die äußere Wahrnehmung – und es wurde versucht, Wirkungsketten von der Quelle der Einflussfaktoren bis zu ihren Auswirkungen in den Regionen zu ziehen. Die Untersuchung beinhaltete eine Literaturrecherche, eine Fragebogenbefragung von Touristen, eine Interviewbefragung von Haushalten und Experteninterviews zur Datenerfassung im Zeitraum 2006-2010. Die generierten Daten wurden dann für eine Livelihood-Analyse der Haushalte in Gyimes und Las Hurdes und einer Politikfeldanalyse des regulativen Rahmens im Bereich der Landwirtschafts-, ländliche Entwicklungs- und Regionalentwicklungspolitik verwendet. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass die untersuchten traditionelle Kulturlandschaften aufgrund von Isolation, ungünstigen Standortbedingungen für landwirtschaftliche Produktion und einer in vielen Fällen vom nationalen Mainstream abweichenden Bevölkerung überlebt haben. Die vorurteilsbehaftete Wahrnehmung, die beide Gebiete charakterisiert hatte, spielte weiterhin eine Rolle in ihrer jetzigen Entwicklung. Diese Beobachtung war eindeutiger im Falle von Gyimes, wo Einwohner auf die Erwartungen von ungarischen Touristen reagierten und begannen, die Landschaft entsprechend der äußeren Wahrnehmung zu arrangieren. Die komplexen Landnutzungssysteme, die einst die immer noch sichtbaren Landschaftsstrukturen geschaffen hatten, waren im Rückgang begriffen und verloren an Komplexität und Bedeutung als Einkommensquelle. Eine geringe Anzahl von Haushalten führte die Landwirtschaft vor allem als Subsistenzwirtschaft fort und nur ein Bruchteil investierte in moderne Formen der Produktion. Die Haushalte, die der Untersuchung nach am ehesten die traditionelle Kulturlandschaft erhielten, waren auch oft diejenigen, die keinerlei ländliche Entwicklungsförderung erhielten. Die Annahme wurde gemacht, dass Las Hurdes, wo die landwirtschaftliche Transformation vor Jahrzehnten stattgefunden hatte, ein mögliches Zukunftsszenario für Gyimes darstellt, hinsichtlich der Verlagerung weg vom Primärsektor, der Landnutzungsaufgabe mit gleichzeitiger landwirtschaftlicher Intensivierung und der Entvölkerung, die zum Verlust der traditionellen Kulturlandschaft führt. Die die Regionen betreffenden analysierten politischen Maßnahmen konnten diese Entwicklung nicht aufhalten, obwohl sie teilweise explizit dafür gemacht wurden, wie im Falle der spanischen ländlichen Entwicklungsprogramme. GAP Direktzahlungen hatten hauptsächlich negative und einige positive indirekte Auswirkungen auf Gyimes und Las Hurdes. Maßnahmen der ländlichen Entwicklung hingegen hatten der Untersuchung zufolge einen geringen positiven Effekt, der schwer zu quantifizieren war. Letztlich wurde die Schlussfolgerung gezogen, dass ländliche Entwicklungspolitik marginalisierte ländliche Gebiete am besten unterstützen könnte, wenn sie umstrukturiert und gezielter an Gebiete mit einem realen Bedarf an öffentlichen Hilfsleistungen geleitet würde. Vor dem Hintergrund der Herausforderungen globaler Landwirtschaft und der Tatsache, dass ländliche Entwicklung heutzutage viel mehr erfordert, als die Unterstützung der Landwirtschaft, schlägt die vorliegende Arbeit abschließend eine Neuorientierung landwirtschaftlicher Politik vor. Regionale Lösungen, die traditionelle, gut an lokale Standortbedingungen angepasste Produktionssysteme mit modernen Technologien verbinden und lokale Einkommensquellen, qualitativ hochwertige Nahrungsmittel und ökologische Nachhaltigkeit sichern, sollten gefördert werden.

AbstractThe Point of a Politeia: Changing Conceptions of Regimen and Regime from 450 to 350 BCEbyDerin Bennet McLeodDoctor of Philosophy in ClassicsUniversity of California, BerkeleyProfessor G.R.F. (John) Ferrari, Chair This dissertation provides a conceptual history of politeia from its origins in the second half of the fifth century BCE down through the middle of the fourth century BCE. In the period under consideration, politeia shows a wide range of meanings. It can describe the function or condition of a politēs ('citizenship') or his activities ('daily life of a citizen') but also the 'government or administration' of a city or the 'constitution' or 'form of government' of a city. In order to explain this pattern of usage, building on the methodological insights Reinhart Koselleck, Quentin Skinner, and R.G. Collingwood as discussed in the introduction, I explain why and to what ends people began and continued to talk about politeia. In chapter one, I suggest that people first began talking about politeia in the context of descriptions of the supposedly unusual features of the Spartan way of life, which they said were part of the Spartan politeia. Building on tropes of sympotic literature that discussed sympotic practices as a mode of ethical orientation, they sought to intervene in ubiquitous debates about the merits of nomos as opposed to physis. Politeia, and more particularly Lacedaimoniōn Politeia—the "title" for such works—provided a third banner in such debates and a way of responding to the individualist concern with control and independence associated with praise of physis. They did so by pointing out the importance of things outside a person's control, especially his breeding and education, in forming that person and making him and all those like him best and strongest in the way those praising physis claimed to want to be. In chapter two, I argue that precisely such controversies lie behind Herodotus' unexpected use of the term politeia in his stories of the seers Teisamenos and Hegesistratus (Hdt. 9.33-37). The stories, read alongside other passages in the History, reflect Herodotus' skepticism about both the unmitigated drive for control and independence associated with physis and the notion that a person could only be shaped by an extended, arduous process outside his control. Furthermore, details in the story of Teisamenos direct our attention to the similarity between the promises of the Lacedaimoniōn Politeiai and the position of the dual Spartan kings, each of whom would be superlative. I argue that the Spartan kings help us see a problem with the promises of the Lacedaimoniōn Politeiai: for one person to be the best or the strongest he must be better than others. I finally argue that the Constitutional Debate (Hdt. 3.80-82), though decidedly not conceived as being about politeiai, suggests the importance of having a ruling entity that is at once both unified and plural. In chapter three, I consider how politeia as a heading for descriptions of all the features of Spartan life came also to center more particularly on who ruled in a city. I suggest that in the Old Oligarch we can see a plausible explanation: when the question at the heart of the Lacedaimoniōn Politeiai—how did these people become so powerful—was asked about the people of Athens, the answer couldn't be in virtue of their breeding or education because aristocratic audiences assumed that the Athenian dēmos lacked any sort of breeding or education. The answer therefore had to be that they were powerful just in virtue of their position in the city; from that position they could shape all the elements of civic life at issue in the Lacedaimoniōn Politeiai but would not be shaped by them. By contrast, the funeral oration that Thucydides puts in Pericles' mouth (Th. 2.35-46) encourages the people of Athens to focus on their power but to conceive their power not in terms of ruling or setting the terms of civic life but rather in realizing their interests. It further tries to help them see those interests not just as material advantage but as realized by becoming better versions of themselves through conscious love for the city and its empire rather than unconscious subjection to civic norms as in the Lacedaimoniōn Politeiai. In the remainder of the history, and especially in book eight, Thucydides suggests that by 411 the Periclean vision had been supplanted by the promise of one group ruling over others to its own advantage. This matches what we can see of thinking about politeia in oratory from around 411. In chapter four, I argue that Aristophanes' Acharnians, Knights, and Wasps take up the appeal of ruling for members of a group such as the Athenian dēmos and humorously exploitation of the tension between the appeal of the dēmos as a group ruling and of the members of the dēmos severally doing so. While only the dēmos as a collective could rule, these plays stage fantasies of each member of the dēmos himself ruling, either by identifying with the corporate person of the dēmos or, more preposterously, by imagining himself taking on that role in his own person. In chapter five, I explore the continuation into the fourth century of the focus on the ruling group in talking about politeia. I first argue that fourth-century Attic oratory continues the pattern, identified in book eight of Thucydides and in late fifth-century oratory, of talking about politeia as the power of ruling, the fact of a particular group wielding that power, or the group of individuals wielding that power. I also argue that this focus makes sense in the context of the orators' concern, described especially by Josh Ober, to create an ideology that levels on the political field the imbalance between speakers and jurymen or members of the assembly on the social field. I also demonstrate that there is a similar pattern of use in treaties from the first half of the fourth century and suggest that the importance of treating the contracting parties as much like natural people as possible explains the tendency to talk of politeia as just the group in charge of a city. I finally discuss the use of politeia to describe the honorary status conferred on foreigners, which, while it falls outside the dissertation's main narrative of political reflection and activity would be prominent down through the Hellenistic and Roman times. Finally, in chapter six, I take up Plato's response, in his Republic (Politeia) to these earlier traditions. I argue that the motivating challenges of the Republic—above all Thrasymachus' statements about civic structure and how people should behave within that structure as well as their restatement in Glaucon's challenge—represent for the reader the danger of the focus on the ruling group and its connection to the selfish individualism of those who praised physis as a guide for action. I further suggest that the response to these challenges—the politeia described in the central books—is best understood as elaborating or repurposing elements of thinking about politeia already in the air. The focus on the musical education of the guards helps us further see the importance of forces working on people unawares. And the description of the creation and civic situation of the philosopher-rulers amounts to a recommitment to the importance of who rules but with an entirely new sense of what should make someone a ruler and of what the activity of ruling properly consists. I finally argue Isocrates' later epideictic speeches explicitly argue against Plato's new vision of rulers and for something like the popular conception of politeia.

Biome shifts caused by climate and land use change threaten global dryland ecosystems and the provision of services needed to sustain human livelihoods. The overarching drivers of early 20th century dryland degradation in South Africa have been attributed to high stocking rates and overgrazing by domestic livestock. Predictions of an eastward encroachment of shrublands into the semiarid grasslands, and resultant declines in productivity, emerged in the 1950s based on concerns that livestock overgrazing would persist. In response to these concerns, appropriate research and government interventions were implemented to address rangeland and livestock mismanagement. However, the role of long-term climate as a driver of semiarid vegetation change was poorly understood, particularly for changes occurring at the interface of the NamaKaroo and Grassland biomes where shrubland encroachment could be detected along a gradient of increasing annual rainfall. It is this gradient that controls the natural biome transition from shrub-dominance to grass-dominance. However, the prediction of shrubland encroachment was refuted when research in the early 1990s revealed that the vegetation of this region (known as the 'eastern Karoo') had undergone an increase in grass cover; a trend that persisted into the early 2000s. Questions around the influence of changing rainfall patterns on driving this increase in grassiness have since been investigated at a single location in the eastern Karoo. Findings indicated that an increase in annual rainfall drove the increase in grass cover, but the generality of this relationship across the broader rainfall gradient of the biome transition has not been examined. In addition to rainfall, grazing by domestic livestock has had a significant influence on the relative proportion of grasses and shrubs in the eastern Karoo. While other studies have alluded to changes in land use, few data have been presented and the relative influence of land use change has usually been under-estimated. The availability of historical data from past vegetation surveys, climate station records and magisterial district livestock censuses makes it possible to develop a more comprehensive synthesis of how vegetation has changed across the rainfall gradient in order to address questions around biome shifts. This thesis, therefore, aimed to determine whether a biome shift is related to a broader shift in the climate regime through the assessment of long-term vegetation change along the rainfall gradient, in relation to climate and land use change since the early 20th century. Annual and seasonal trend analysis was applied to monthly rainfall, temperature, pan evaporation, evapotranspiration and wind speed data. Trends indicated that 32% of sites in the eastern Karoo showed an increase in annual rainfall between 1874 and 2019, which was also defined by a significant shift to increasing early summer rainfall. A concomitant trend of decreasing annual, and late summer rainfall, was detected at 32% of sites located on the mesic end of the rainfall gradient. Monthly maximum temperature between 1971 and 2019 also increased by 1.0 °C at a rate of 0.04 ± 0.06 °Cy-1 and monthly minimum temperature decreased by 0.3 °C at a rate of -0.03 ± 0.11 °Cy-1 . Wind speed, an important driver of evaporative processes, decreased at 44% of sites since 1971 and decreasing trends in A-Pan evaporation were found at all sites. No discernible trends in evapotranspiration were detected. Declines in wind speed and evaporation were suggested to promote an increase in vegetation cover which may restore ecosystem processes and improve rangeland productivity. An analysis of multidecadal wet-dry phases in the climate record was also undertaken using the Standardised Precipitation Index. Through this, it was observed that the rainfall regime over the eastern Karoo is defined by three significant phases over the last century: an early wet phase (1886- 1902), a 70-year long dry phase (1902-1970), followed by the recent wet phase (1970-2014) that commenced with heavy rains in the mid-1970s across the summer rainfall region of southern Africa. Long-term changes in the cover and composition of plant species and growth forms were compared between 1962 and 2018 at 27 sites using the point intercept method. Changes in species composition were determined from Bray-Curtis similarity distances. The dominant growth forms were organised along a rainfall-edaphic gradient and plant communities were further defined by altitude. Hierarchical clustering of species cover per site recognised this underlying gradient. Thus, sites were categorised into three vegetation units: 'Karoo', 'Escarpment' and 'Grassland'. Results showed that vegetation cover increased, and bare ground cover decreased, significantly at all but one site. Perennial grasses increased by 20%, 24% and 35% at Karoo, Escarpment and Grassland sites, respectively. Palatable dwarf shrubs increased by 15% at Karoo sites. These growth form changes translated to a broader-scale shift in the relative dominance of dwarf shrubs to grasses at 59% of sites in the Nama-Karoo biome, coinciding with the spatial pattern of increasing early summer rainfall and temperature. However, a multivariate analysis provided minimal evidence of species shifts between vegetation units or biomes, suggesting that compositional stability was maintained across the rainfall gradient. Percent changes in the cover of grasses and dwarf shrubs were analysed in relation to the climatic and edaphic parameters using multiple regression analysis, but no significant linear relationships were found. However, summer rainfall and temperature combined explained 26% of the variation in the percent change in grass cover. The effect of these changes on rangeland grazing capacity (ha/Large Stock Unit) was also evaluated using the ecological index method of the assessment of veld condition. There was a fivefold improvement in grazing capacity at Karoo sites and a twofold improvement at Escarpment and Grassland sites. Changes in the cover of grasses, dwarf shrubs and trees were additionally determined through fixed-point repeat photography at 85 sites on two different landforms, plains and hillslopes. A shift towards grass dominance relative to dwarf shrubs was estimated at 90% of sites located on the plains and at 100% of sites located on the hillslopes in the NamaKaroo. Variable trends were found at Grassland sites in both landforms. Tree cover remained unchanged in both biomes. Agricultural livestock census data at the magisterial district-level showed a fivefold decrease in sheep numbers between 1911 and 2017 while the number of cattle and equine animals remained largely unchanged. Goat numbers fluctuated over time in response to the demands for Angora mohair. Supporting perceptions of significant reductions in livestock numbers since the 1960s were conveyed by 18 local landowners as derived from semi-structured interviews. The introduction of conservation-friendly grazing systems, seasonal rainfall shifts, and increased drought frequency were also perceived as important drivers of vegetation change. However, a number of socio-ecological challenges, for example, livestock losses to theft, vermin, or fire, emerged as having significantly influenced management decisions. Therefore, the persistent structural shift in growth forms across the rainfall gradient since the 1960s has largely coincided with significant climatic shifts in rainfall and temperature. A secondary influence of long-term reductions in livestock numbers, and a change to conservation-friendly management practices, is suggested to have supported the recovery of vegetation, especially that of perennial grasses, and rangeland productivity.

Tourism, as the third largest export sector in the world, is of great importance to global communities (UNWTO, 2018). Global Wellness Institute (2018) until 2022 predicted for the medical tourism industry an average of ≈8% of annual growth; however, with one of the highest risks, i.e. disease risk (in this case COVID-19), since April 6 2020, 96% of the world's countries have travel restrictions: About 43 percent of states have closed all or part of their borders. About 21 percent of states have introduced travel bans for passengers from certain countries affected by COVID-19. About 27 percent of states have suspended all or part of their international flights to their The remaining 9% of states have applied the following travel restrictions: (i) the requirement to immediately dissociate or quarantine, normally within 14 days since the arrival at destination; (ii) annulment or revocation of the visa upon arrival; (iii) travel bans for passengers arriving from certain regions (UNWTO, 2020). As a result, the tourism industry, alongside with medical tourism, is experiencing a major recession and the GWI (2018) forecast for 2022 loses its meaning. As a new form of tourism, medical tourism has become one of the fastest growing sectors of the tourism industry. Medical tourism can be defined as a "purposeful trip abroad to receive medical care" (Keckley and Underwood, 2008). Medical tourism can be viewed from two perspectives (Plianbangchang, 2018): Reactive means medical care that pays special attention to the treatment or elimination of existing diseases; Rehabilitation of the disabled is a conventional medicine that is sometimes called the sickness Proactive approach to health ensures/preserves the well-being, these services are focused on health promotion and disease Heung et al. (2011), Ganguli and Ebrahim (2017), Tham (2018), Nilashia et al. (2019) found that the development of medical tourism in Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore is mainly influenced by the following factors: competence/human capital, infrastructure andsuperstructure, government approach/policy/regulation, the range of developed services, communication between different market segments, investment opportunities, lack of strategic planning, underdeveloped public-private partnerships and international cooperation, shortcomings in marketing and branding strategies, lack of a unified accreditation and certification system. However, the authors did not single out and assess one of the most important phenomena hindering development – the consequences caused by risk factors. Lithuanian researchers studied the risk in various aspects: patient safety, adverse event management, risk factor management and assessment (Kaleininkaitė and Trumpaitė, 2007; Buškevičiūtė and Leškevičiūtė, 2008; Kanapeckienė and Jurkuvėnas, 2009; Staliūnienė, 2009; Mekšriūnaitė and Rudaitis, 2013; Paškevičius, 2014; Stasytytė and Aleksienė, 2016; Jankauskienė and Kostereva, 2019; Babinskas and Kanapeckienė, 2019, etc.), however, the management of tourism risk factors has not been sufficiently studied yet. The following authors have examined the risk management of medical tourism in foreign literature: Wybo, 2004; Camillo, 2015; Mutalib et al., 2016; Winsena et al., 2016; Hasan et al., 2017; Plianbangchang, 2018; Ravulakollu et al., 2018; Nilashia et al., 2019; Lubowiecki-Vikuk and Dryglas, 2019; Hyder et al., 2019. The problem of the research is how to effectivelymanage the risk factors of medical tourism. The aim of the research is to develop a management model after analysing the risk factors of medical tourism. Objectives of the study: (1) to define medical tourism risk factors; (2) to analyse risk managementalgorithms. Research methods: comparative logical analysis ofscientific literature, modelling, generalization. Medical tourism organizations can be called complex socio-technical organizations that operate in a complex dynamic environment. As a result, these organizations are exposed to external and internal risk factors that need to be identified, analysed, assessed, prioritized, and managed. In this work, the author solved the problem: how to effectively manage the risk factors of medical tourism. During the analysis of the performed scientific literature, it was found that we can ensure a successful risk cleaning process by keeping with the following consistency: risk analysis, anticipation of possible accidents/factors, strategic planning, ensuring control and feedback, risk profiling, during which all possible risk factors are classified and prioritized. The risk of medical tourism involves two stages: first, when patients are abroad and second, when patients leave the hospital and return to their place of residence. Lack of information and insufficient communication between the doctor abroad and in the home country is another negative effect of medical tourism as the continuity of patient care is interrupted. Health information is not transferred from foreign hospitals to the home country, which can lead to several consequences, such as the inability to identify potential complications in a timely manner and the toxicity caused by the drugs used (Carrera and Lunt, 2010). Cammillo (2015) has attributed the emergence of medical tourism risk to the lack or scarcity of strategic managementskillsatthedestination.Strategicmanagement is a dynamic process in which the current situation is constantly assessed and each step is planned/forecasted. This requires a strong understanding of the organization as well as an understanding of the global environment in which the organization operates. This includes situation analysis SWOT. In this context, strategic management is forced to include risk assessment, risk management, crisis management and prevention strategies, and effective interdepartmental communication. The above-mentioned author singles out the following risk factors that have to be assessed during strategic risk management:1. Human error; 2. Office error; 3. Trust in the wrong person; 4. Unauthorized procedures; 5. Unlimited access to electronic data; 6. Unrestricted access for third parties; 7. Improper maintenance; 8. Insufficient control; 9. Misuse of confidential information; 10. Errors of court; 11. Improper standard operating procedures. Conclusions After examining the risk factors of medical tourism, they can be divided into two categories: external and internal risk Based on the research of tourism risk aspects conducted by researchers in recent years, tourist/patient risk perceptions are often summarized from five to seven aspects. Five aspects of risk covered financial/economic risk, psychological risk, operational risk, equipment or technical risk, health risk, accident/physical risk and social risk. In addition to these dimensions, six dimensions of risk included one more risk, i.e. time risk, and seven aspects of risk included loss of opportunity. After analysing risk management systems/algorithms/ models, it was determined that the most significant preconditions for a successful medical tourism risk management process are the following: risk analysis/ forecasting; identification of accidents/factors; strategic planning; ensuring control and feedback; risk profiling, during which all possible risk factors are classified and ; Medicinos turizmo organizacijas galima vadinti kompleksinėmis sociotechninėmis organizacijomis, kurios veikia sudėtingoje dinaminėje aplinkoje. Todėl šios organizacijos yra veikiamos išorinių ir vidinių rizikos veiksnių, kuriuos reikia identifikuoti / analizuoti / vertinti / prioretizuoti ir valdyti. Šiame straipsnyje autorius sprendė problemą – kaip veiksmingai valdyti medicinos turizmo rizikos veiksnius. Analizuodamas mokslinę literatūrą autorius nustatė, kad užtikrinti sėkmingą rizikos valdymo procesą galima laikantis šio nuoseklumo: rizikos analizė; galimų nelaimingų įvykių / veiksnių numatymas; strateginis planavimas; kontrolės ir grįžtamojo ryšio užtikrinimas; rizikos profilio sudarymas, kurio metu visi galimi rizikos veiksniai yra klasifikuojami ir prioretizuojami.

Метою дослідження було проаналізувати перебіг травматичної хвороби при бойовій травмі, висвітлити причини ускладнень та обґрунтувати шляхи їх лікування і запобігання. Матеріали та методи. За 2014–2015 роки у Військово-медичному клінічному центрі Західного регіону проліковано 1566 пацієнтів із бойовою хірургічною травмою. 709 (45 %) осіб мали мінно-осколкові поранення, 323 (21 %) — мінно-вибухові травми, 127 (8 %) — кульові поранення, 367 (23 %) — бойову невогнепальну травму і 40 (3 %) — комбіновані опікові ураження. Множинні поранення були в 161 (10 %) особи і поєднані — у 386 (25 %) пацієнтів. Поранені і травмовані надходили шляхом медичної евакуації повітряним і наземним транспортом із закладів ІІ та ІІІ рівнів надання медичної допомоги, де їм були виконані невідкладні операційні втручання та проведена інтенсивна терапія травматичного шоку і крововтрати. 153 (9,7 %) поранені після транспортування потребували госпіталізації у відділення інтенсивної терапії та реанімації. Результати. 819 (52,3 %) постраждалих із пошкодженням живота, грудей та кінцівок, які надійшли у Військово-медичний клінічний центр Західного регіону, потребували етапних операційних втручань, а також хірургічних операцій із приводу ранніх і пізніх ускладнень перенесеної бойової травми. У 102 (6 %) осіб ефективною була консервативна терапія. Ускладнення бойової хірургічної травми розподілили на дві групи: прогнозовані та ті, яких можна було б уникнути. До прогнозованих ускладнень віднесли постгеморагічну анемію, гіпопротеїнемію, синдром абдомінальної компресії, інфікування післяопераційної рани, післяопераційні грижі після програмованих релапаротомій, плевролегеневі ускладнення після поєднаної торакоабдомінальної травми, інфекційно-запальні процеси сечовидільної системи, що спричинені тривалою постійною катетеризацією сечового міхура. Ускладнення, яких можна було б уникнути, залежали від термінів лікувально-евакуаційних заходів, рівня підготовки медичного персоналу щодо лікування бойової хірургічної травми, матеріально-технічного забезпечення та виконання адекватного обсягу лікування на відповідному рівні медичної допомоги. Висновки. Передумови для незадовільних результатів лікування бойової хірургічної травми створюють поранення сучасною високоенергетичною зброєю, особливості бойової ситуації на фронті, тривалий період стабілізації життєво важливих функцій організму, неадекватна корекція крововтрати та гіпопротеїнемії, неоптимальний вибір обсягу першого операційного втручання, відсутність підготовки медичного персоналу з лікування бойової хірургічної травми та недостатнє медичне матеріально-технічне забезпечення ; Целью исследования было проанализировать течение травматической болезни при боевой травме, осветить причины осложнений и обосновать пути их лечения и предупреждения. Материалы и методы. За 2014–2015 годы в Военно-медицинском клиническом центре Западного региона пролечено 1566 пациентов с боевой хирургической травмой. 709 (45 %) лиц имели минно-осколочные ранения, 323 (21 %) — минно-взрывные травмы, 127 (8 %) — пулевые ранения, 367 (23 %) — боевую неогнестрельную травму и 40 (3 %) — комбинированные ожоговые поражения. Множественные ранения были у 161 (10 %) лица и сочетанные — у 386 (25 %) пациентов. Раненые и травмированные поступали путем медицинской эвакуации воздушным и наземным транспортом из учреждений II и III уровней оказания медицинской помощи, где им были выполнены неотложные операционные вмешательства и проведена интенсивная терапия травматического шока и кровопотери. 153 (9,7 %) раненых после транспортировки нуждались в госпитализации в отделение интенсивной терапии и реанимации. Результаты. 819 (52,3 %) пострадавших с повреждением живота, груди и конечностей, поступивших в Военно-медицинский клинический центр Западного региона, нуждались в этапных оперативных вмешательствах, а также в хирургических операциях по поводу ранних и поздних осложнений перенесенной боевой травмы. У 102 (6 %) лиц эффективной была консервативная терапия. Осложнения боевой хирургической травмы разделили на две группы: прогнозируемые и те, которых можно было бы избежать. К прогнозируемым осложнениям отнесли постгеморрагическую анемию, гипопротеинемию, синдром абдоминальной компрессии, инфицирование послеоперационной раны, послеоперационные грыжи после программируемых релапаротомий, плевролегочные осложнения после сочетанной торакоабдоминальной травмы, инфекционно-воспалительные процессы мочеполовой системы, вызванные длительной постоянной катетеризацией мочевого пузыря. Осложнения, которых можно было бы избежать, зависели от сроков лечебно-эвакуационных мероприятий, уровня подготовки медицинского персонала по лечению боевой хирургической травмы, материально-технического обеспечения и выполнения адекватного объема лечения на соответствующем уровне медицинской помощи. Выводы. Предпосылки для не-удовлетворительных результатов лечения боевой хирургической травмы создают ранения современным высокоэнергетическим оружием, особенности боевой ситуации на фронте, длительный период стабилизации жизненно важных функций организма, неадекватная коррекция кровопотери и гипопротеинемии, неоптимальный выбор объема первого операционного вмешательства, отсутствие подготовки медицинского персонала по лечению боевой хирургической травмы и недостаточное медицинское материально-техническое обеспечение. ; Background. The purpose of the study was to analyses the traumatic diseases in injured and wounded patients with combat surgical trauma, to characterize the causes of complications and to explain the ways of their treatment and prevention. Materials and methods. 1566 patients with combat surgical trauma were treated in the Military Medical Clinical Centre of the Western Region (MMCCWR) in 2014–2015. 709 (45 %) of them had missile injuries, 323 (21 %) — mine blast trauma, 127 (8 %) — gunshot injuries, 367 (23 %) — combat non-gunshot damages and 40 (3 %) — combined burning injuries. Multiple injuries were diagnosed in 161 (10 %) and associated — in 386 (25 %) wounded soldiers. Wounded and injured patients were admitted to the hospital by aeromedical and land transport evacuation of II and III levels of care after emergency surgical procedure and antishock intensive care. 153 (9.7 %) of wounded patients were admitted to the intensive care unit immediately after transportation. Results. 819 (52.3 %) of wounded and injured combatants hospitalized in MMCCWR required stage surgical procedures and surgical treatment of combat trauma early and late complications. Conservative therapy was effective in 102 (6 %) patients. Combat trauma complications were divided into two groups: predicted complications and those that could have been avoided. Predicted complications include posthemorrhagic anemia, hypoproteinemia, abdominal compartment syndrome, postoperative wound infection and postoperative hernia after program relaparotomy, pulmonary inflammatory complications, inflammatory urinary processes after bladder catheterization. Complications that could have been avoided depended on the time of evacuation and medical support, medical teams experience in combat surgical trauma treatment, medical material and technical resources and realization of the appropriate medical care. Conclusions. The main causes for the unsatisfactory combat surgical trauma treatment results are wounds caused by modern high-energy weapon, specific battlefront situation, continuous unstable patient's condition, inadequate blood loss and hypoproteinemia compensation, inadequate capacity of the first surgical procedure, poor training of the medical personnel for the combat surgical trauma treatment and limited medical resources.

The project aims to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the government's irrigation program with focus on the technical, physical, and institutional aspects of performance of communal irrigation systems (CIS). Cycle 1 involved the assessment of 66 communal irrigation systems (CIS) from 11 provinces in Luzon, while Cycle 2 covered 12 CIS from 4 provinces in the Visayas, and 12 CIS from 4 provinces in Mindanao. Provinces were selected based on the total FUSA served by CIS, while the selection of sample CIS per province were based on size category of service areas: small (50 ha and below), medium (between 50 and 100 ha), and large (above 100 ha). They were then characterized based on water source, type of extraction/ distribution technology (gravity, pump), FUSA, operational status and cropping intensity. Primary and secondary data were collected. Key informant interviews (KII) of the RIO or IMO Managers, as well as other key actors such as NIA-IDOs and the IA President, were conducted using a structured questionnaire. Focus group discussions with IA officers/ members were likewise carried out. Walkthroughs to gauge the physical conditions of the systems were conducted in 2 of the 6 selected CIS from the 11 provinces in Luzon for a total of 22, and in all the 24 CIS selected in Visayas and Mindanao. Majority of the selected CIS are gravity systems except in some provinces where there are more pump irrigation systems. Water sources of the CIS are lakes, rivers, creeks, springs, runoff and ground water. While some rivers tapped have adequate flows for irrigation even during the dry seasons, unreliable water supply is a major problem for majority of the CIS who tap water from less dependable small rivers and creeks, or rely on springs and runoff. In most of the CIS visited, farmers resort to conjunctive use of STWs with their CIS especially during long dry periods. Many CIS where found to be in slope greater that 3%, and as such, it is recommended to include all areas within 8% slope, minus the built-up and other protected areas as potential irrigable areas. The presence of a dependable surface water source and a good shallow aquifer, as well as the soil type and its suitability to different type of crops, should also be used as major criteria for irrigation development. On the problem of water supply sources, there should be a concerted and united effort on the part of concerned government agencies like NWRB, NIA, BSWM, and the academe to identify potential sites for diversion dams and storage reservoirs. The estimation of dependable (low) water supply and flood (high) discharges for rivers is very important. As such, the shelved proposal for the institution of the National Water Resources Management Office under the Office of the President should be revived and reformulated. The institution of Water Resources Centers in selected state colleges and universities (SCUs), who can continuously gather, analyze and manage water resources data would be significant in building hydrologic database. All accumulated water resources data should be housed in a database center within the proposed super body. There are a host of technical problems that confronts the IAs and the performance of their CIS. Most run-of-the-river type dams are old, and some with sediments almost at the crest level. Damaged sluice and intake gates are usually replaced with wooden flashboards, sand bags or stones, and defective lifting mechanisms are either left open or fitted with chain blocks. Sedimentation due to catchment denudation, mining, lahar, among others, is a major problem decreasing dam storage potential and canal carrying capacity. A positive aspect is that most CIS have concrete-lined main canals and laterals, and their conditions depend on the IA O&M and cleanup mechanisms. At any rate, sediment discharge estimation should be a prerequisite in feasibility studies and provision of silt control devices should be included in the design for sediment laden rivers. Control structures include simple cross regulators, check gates, drop structures, division boxes and farm turnouts most of which uses wooden flashboards for water level control. Most service roads are in bad conditions with some dams accessible only by walking or by motorcycles. As in most irrigation systems, flow measurements are not conducted and there are no specific drainage canals at the CIS leading to flooding problems in some systems during the rainy season. Water distribution is usually from paddy to paddy, with few farm ditches contributing to large application losses. Rehabilitation works have been performed through NIA's technical assistance and mostly done to correct damaged dams and headworks, lining of canals, and dredging of sediments. With the recent availability of low-cost HDPE pipes, the feasibility of using these materials for subsurface conveyance of irrigation to the fields, should be looked into. Most IAs believe that they receive adequate water at the right time though frequent delays and inequitable flow distribution still abound. The IAs also generally rate their systems high in terms of water delivery, flexibility, reliability and equitability, and themselves in terms of water distribution and canal maintenance, indicating the high relative impact of NIA to the farmers. There is no distinct pattern based on size of FUSA on the performance of CIS and functionality of IAs. Crucial is the capacity of each IA to harness its organizational capacity to build human, financial, social capital, thus, the need for continuous capacity building. CIS development remains dependent on government (i.e., NIA) assistance and the planned management transfer to LGUs based on AFMA is rarely implemented, if at all. Problems of sustainability of irrigation infrastructure loom due to persistent environmental problems (watershed degradation, siltation, extreme climate-related events). IAs apparently have none or limited role in watershed management but these can serve as partners in watershed management programs. The role of IDOs is very crucial but even with a heavy workload they are not getting adequate incentives (e.g. security of tenure and other benefits. Most often, IDOs are hired on job order basis with salaries drawn from CIS project budget. All of the IAs interviewed were grateful for the FISA since they are relieved from paying the cost of their CIS. The IAs continued to collect fees from their members for their O&M, referring to them as irrigation management fee (IMF) or association service charge (ASC). However, some IA members are reluctant to pay any fee citing the implementation of FISA. IA's concerns in O&M and inadequate funds are persistent. FISA declared that O&M cost shall be provided by the national government. Therefore, there should be clear guidelines or provisions on this. FISA maintains the significant role of NIA in providing technical support to IAs and in building IAs' capacity to sustain their functionality. Thus, linkage between NIA and IAs should be sustained.

To explain the existing harmony between the legal and pastoral dimensions of the social reality of the Church is a difficult task, especially when one takes into consideration the ambiguity of the term pastoral which, apart fron its technical significance, has been the object of tactical, vulgarized and equivocal use. In any case, the author not only shares the view that this term makes reference to the order of actions through which the Church finds its place in History by fulfilling its mission, but also accepts the most widely accepted meanings of the term: a) material meanings: pastoral action is synonymous with ecclesiastical o christian action, ministerial or priestly actionand introductory or leading action. b) formal meanings: pastoral action is synonymous with efficacious action, an intermediary action between God and man, an action shaped by the condiyionings of the hie et nune and a planned action. Subsequently the importance of the meanings accepted in the historical and doctrinal evolution of pastoral Theology is analysed so as to detect what the conception of Canon Law, in the minds of the members of the pastorate, is. In order not to fall into «cientifismo» on analysing the «edifying actions of the Church» one has to start from the authentic nature of the pastorate, that ¡s, from the pastorate as a manifestation of the nature of the Church . because it is in this way that the reality of the «pastoral» concept is found; thus the pastorate refers to the very and exclusive dynamics of the priestly ministry, in such a way that Pastoral Theology ought to make itself, as far as science is concerned, into a reflection on «the ministerial actions of the priestly hierarchy». Nevertheless, as the term has today come to be used as a purely scientific concept (and not as a concept per se), three orders of realities have clearly been distinguished to show that there is nonexus of efficient and formal causality; the scientific order (pastoral theology), ontological and sacramental personal realities (pastorate) and the acquisition of the salus animarum. (pastoral efficacy); but one conclusión is crystal clear: that in the transplantation of technical notions and methods of the profane sciences into the Church, the prevalant and absolute principie is the respect for the nature of the Church and the peculiar characteristics of her realities. With these explanations the point of convergente of the Pastora te and Canon Law is delimited; the Canon Law is the nature of the Church, because pastorate and legality are dimensions of the only reality which is the Church, rather than separate realities. The real contribution of Law to the historical edification of the Church is the dimension of justic;e, which affects the entire «Mysterium Ecclesiae», so that it cannot be said that before the legis'lature of the human ecclesiastical Law there exists an «ajuridical camp a priori»; likewise there doesn't exist an «adivine camp a priori»; and neither do the historical and concrete realities appear void of all norms and all exlgencies of justice. The author next writes about the hypertrophy which the term pastoral has undergone in the attempt to understand and solve all the facets of the mystery of the Church exolusively and solely under thls perspective; thls pastorate has led to confusion and the violation of the very formalities of other sciences among which Canon Law needs a special mentlon. Later on, the characteristic traits of the actual patarate are described: substitution of orthodoxy for orthopraxls, loss of clarity in the essential difference between the common priest and the ministerial prlest, hlstorlclty and sociology in the appreciation of the efficacy, In History, of the salvation found in the Church. Finally, the author deduces the following conclusions, concerning the analysis of the relatlonship between Pastorate and Law: 1) in order that a pastoral action might be authentically an action which edifies the Church, It has to be a just action a priori. 2) Canon Law, as a guardianship of Identity, unity and social order of the Church, Is a necessary leit motiv of pastoral activity. ; Dilucidare armoniam iuridicae dimensionis et pastorales realitatis socialis Ecclesiae difficile evenit cum valde aequivocum sit verbum «pastoralis», quod praeter eius significationes technicas utitur etiam sensu tactico, vulgari et aequivoco. Cum quoquomodo referat ad ordinem actionum quibus Ecclesia in perficiendo suo munere autoefficitur in Historia, auctor finit significaciones latiores verbi: a) Significationes materiales: actio pastoralis cognominata fit actionis ecclesialis vel christianae, actionis ministerialis vel sacerdotalis, et actionis hodegeticae vel regiminis; b) Significationes formales: actio pastora lis cognominatafit actionis efficacis, actionis mediatricis Dei hominumque, actionis hic et nunc configuratae, et actionis iam designatae. Examinatur deinde locus quem significationes finitae implent in evolutione historica-doctrinale lheologiae pastoralis ut detectetur quae sit conceptio luris Canonici in mente pastoralistarum. Ut non incurratur in «cientifismum» quoddam cum examinentur actiones aedificantes Ecclesiae, proficiscendumest a natura vera pastoralis, id est, in quantum manifestatio naturae Ecclesiae, in quo consistit realiter notio «pastoralis»; sic pastoralis refert ad dynamicam propriam et exclusivam sacerdotii ministerialis, ita ut scientia lheologiae pastoralis constituenda erit tanquam cogitatio de actionibus ministerialibus sacerdotii hierarchici. lamen, cum verbum «pastoralis» nunc maxi me utatur ut notio pure scientifica et non notio realis, distinguendi sunt nitide tres ordines realitatum ad concludendum non esse inter eos nexum causalitatisefficientis et formalis: ordo scientificus (lheologia pastoralis), realitates personales onticae sacramentalesque (indoles pastoris)atque consecutio salutis animarum (efficacitas pastoralis); ac aliqua potests prominere conclusio: in transponendis Ecclesiae notionibus, technicis atque rationibus scientiarum profanarum, reverentia naturae Ecclesiae et esse proprio rius realitatum est praevalens principiumabsolutum. His suppositis delimitatur punctum convergentiae Pastoralis et luris Canonici, quod est natura Ecclesiae, quia pastorale iuridica cumque potius qua m disiunctae realitates sunt dimensiones unius realitatis quae est Ecclesia. Apportatio propria luris aedificationi historicae Ecclesiae est dimensio iustitiae, aspectus attingens totum mysterium Ecclesiae, Ita ut non possimus dicere «campo ajurídico» praevium es se dationi legislativae luris humani ecclesiastici, sicut non est in Ecclesia «campo a divino» praevium neque eius realitates historicae eculiaresque apparent orbae omni norma omnique exigentia iustitiae. tDeinde poste a agitur de deformatione qua m verbum -pastoralis. passum est in conatu intelligendi et resolvendi omnes species mysterii Ecclesiae unice sub hoc prospectu; hic .pastoralismus» ducit ad inumbrandas et frangendas formalitates proprias aliarum scientiarum, et specialiter luris Canonici ratione significata. Describuntur postea tactus proprii praesentis «pastoralismi»: substituit orthodoxiam pro orthopraxl, amittitclarltatem distinctionis essentialis sacerdotii communis et ministerialis, historicismi et sociologismi in aestimatione efficacitatis salvificae Ecclesiae in Historia. Denique ex analysi relationum Pastoralis etluris auctor infert insequentes conclusiones: 1) Actlo pastoralis ut sit vere actio aedificans Eccleslae, prlus debet esse actio iusta. 2) lus Canonicum, quod est tutela identitatis, unitatis ordinisque social¡s Eccleslae, est suppositum et basis necessaria activitatis pastora lis

The public pension system in Lithuania was founded in 1990 when a social insurance fund, autonomous from the state budget, was established. The economic decline, high inflation, rising unemployment, the high number of those not participating in social insurance during the 1992-2000 period imposed hardships on the pension system. From the beginning of 1994, the non-governmental organisation libertarian Lithuanian Free Market Institute and Lithuanian business organisation of the Industrialists Confederation started advocating for the private pension provision. Most commonly referred arguments came from the World Bank edition Averting the Old Age Crisis. The main argument was: due to the ageing of population Lithuania, like other industrial countries, is facing challenges in providing income security for the elderly.The public pension fund financing difficulties and low pension benefits turned the Government away from social insurance towards private pension funds, beginning with the partial privatisation of the social insurance. All political parties have backed the privatisation. although with varying levels of enthusiasm (Liberals showed the highest and Social Democrats the least enthusiasm). The actual implementation of the reform was undertaken in 2004 by Social Democrats as the major partner in the coalition with Social Liberals. They chose a moderate pace and began with a small contribution and supported a voluntary switchover from social insurance to private pension funds. So, Lithuania, like some Eastern European and Latin American countries, implemented the so-called structural pension reform.The main official objective of the pension reform was to change the pension system in such a way that persons of pension age could get higher income than previously, meanwhile to ensure that the redistribution would not be increased but reduced, and to ensure the long-term financial sustainability of the system which will cover all the inhabitants. Additionally, it was expected that introduction of the private pension scheme due the pension reform will increase savings and investment and thus will promote the growth of the national economy.The key element of the reform was the transfer of 5.5 percentage points of social insurance contributions into private pension funds. However, unlike some other Eastern and Central European countries, Lithuania made its private pension system optional for employees. Persons of any age, insured by the social insurance, got the opportunity to accumulate part of their social insurance contributions in a personal account of private pension funds.During the first four years of the pension reform, by the end of2007, there were signed more than 800 thousand pension accumulation contracts between employees and managers of private pension funds. Thus, already at the beginning of the reform, almost 70 per cent of the insured for the full social insurance pension decided to participate in private pension funds. There are six assets managers and three private insurance companies in the Lithuanian pension market. They have accumulated the pension capital close to 1.7 billion Litas. Annual money transfer from the Social Insurance Fund to private pension funds (transitional costs of the reform) has reached I per cent of the GDP in 2008.Financing pension reform transitional costs comes into conflict with the financing of current pensions. High transitional costs have a negative impact on the social insurance pension budget, and it will last for several decades. If these resources were left for the financing of the social insurance pensions, they would have been higher by 20 per cent. These are implicit costs of the pension reform, which that are paid by the present generation of pensioners.Alternatively, without a reform social insurance contributions could have been decreased from the current 34 per cent to 28.5 per cent. In this sense, the costs of the reform will fall on all working population and employers, meanwhile only part of employees participate in the reform.The pension reform history' is too short for evaluation of its benefit for the private pension fund participants. Nevertheless, capital returns from pensions' assets hardly overcome inflation during the first four years of the reform. Because the high private pension fund administration costs erode participants' savings, the government needs to place a tighter control on administrative costs.The earning-related part of the social insurance pension will be reduced for participants of the private pension funds proportionally to the reduced part of the contribution for the social insurance (about 30 per cent) due to the fact that part of the contribution has been transferred to the private pension fund. Because of a rapid increase of public pensions, the loss of the reform participants will be substantial. In this respect, the State's commitments and the scope of social security to the future pensioners will be reduced by the part of the privatised pension. It is not in line with the ILO Convention N 102 which says that the State must take responsibility for the social security benefit.Prior to the reform, one of the arguments was the necessity to increase investment into the national economy. However, 90 per cent of pensions' assets are invested abroad, and there are very few investments into shares of domestic companies. Moreover, heavy investments in public versus private assets, high administrative costs, the oligopolistic pension industry, and low competition because of consumers' myopia have a negative impact on the future pensions' benefits.All the parties involved in the reform designing argued for the necessity of reform implementation by referring to the current problems which cannot be resolved by the reform. Moreover, they set objectives that may hardly be obtained by the reform in its implementation. The content of the reform is very narrow if compared with what was planned at the beginning of the reform discussion and what the initial reform documents mentioned. On the contrary, the reform has a list of negative consequences on the current and future pensioners' welfare. ; Šiame straipsnyje analizuojama prieš penkerius metus pradėta Lietuvos socialinio draudimo senatvės pensijų struktūrinė reforma, kurios metu dalis socialinio draudimo įmokų pervedama į gyventojų pasirinktus privačius pensijų fondus. Šio straipsnio tikslas - apžvelgti reformos pradžioje jai keltus tikslus, įvertinti jų pagrįstumą socialinės apsaugos ekonomikos teorijos požiūriu, išanalizuoti pradinius pensijų reformos rezultatus. Siekiant šio tikslo išanalizuotas pensijų reformų regione pobūdis, socialinio draudimo pensijų dalinio privatizavimo Lietuvoje ypatybės, kelti privatizavimo tikslai ir besiformuojanti privačių pensijų rinką Lietuvoje. Straipsnyje remiamasi pasaulyje gerai žinomų pensijų ekonomikos tyrėjų publikacijomis, pensijų reformą reglamentuojančiais Lietuvos Respublikos įstatymais, Lietuvos valstybės institucijų skelbiama ekonomine ir socialine statistika.Autoriaus atlikta analizė rodo, kad privačių pensijų fondų klientų asmeninėse kaupiamosiose pensijų sąskaitose kaupiamo turto investicijų grąža nepadengia nuostolių, kuriuos jie patirs dėl dalinio pasitraukimo iš socialinio draudimo pensijų sistemos. Straipsnyje taip pat parodyta minėtos pensijų reformos našta, kuri tenka dabartiniams pensininkams. Pagrindinė straipsnio išvada - reformos tikslai buvo per daug ideologizuoti, o pirminiai rezultatai nepalankūs nei dabartiniams, nei būsimiems pensininkams. Lietuvoje 2004 metais įvykdytos pensijų reformos analizė akademinėje literatūroje pateikiama pirmą kartą.