決定美國外交政策的因素是多樣的,有國內因素與國外因素。概括而言,影響其外交決策的國內政治力量有總統、國務院及國務卿,國防部、國會,利益集團同媒體等等,而上述各個權力體都會受到公眾輿論的限制。可以說,公眾輿論是美國這個民主政體的外交行為不可忽視的影響力量。早至上世紀中葉,以沃爾特李普曼為代表的一批國際關係專家曾掀起研究公眾輿論的熱潮,李普曼、阿爾蒙德等持現實主義理論的學者認為公眾輿論不具有穩定性和理性,其情緒化,變幻莫測還容易收到外界影響,不應影響一國的外交決策。爭鋒相對的,自由主義理論的支持者則堅持公眾有權利參與外交決策,也有能力從國家利益出發理性地參與外交問題。 ; 自由主義和現實主義理論關於公眾輿論的認識是從不同角度出發去理解公眾輿論在外交決策領域的作用,因此二者難分上下,也不分對錯,一再糾纏與兩種理論的爭鋒不利於我們瞭解美國公眾輿論和外交決策的真實關係。本研究即是從此出發點考慮,跳出理論之爭,而將研究的重點集中於分析公眾輿論是如何在具體的情境中與政府互動的。筆者將通過對1940年代這一政策調整頻繁時期《紐約時報》對華新聞報導的分析,來考察在宋美齡訪美、重慶談判、承認中華人民共和國等歷史事件中美國民眾、媒體態度的變化以及政府在其中的角色如何。本研究的創新之處則在於從小處,即《紐約時報》的新聞報導著手看公眾輿論與美國外交決策這一宏觀互動關係的具體形式,希望有助於美國政治文化的研究。 ; Over the past six decades since the founding of the People's Republic of China, our understanding of the Sino-U.S. relations has undergone considerable revisions. From the beginning of the Cold War to President Nixon's visit to China, U.S. and China had been from enemies to friends, rivals to partners, later with the rise of China as one important power of world politics as well as economy, the balance between relations of U.S. and China flows with the distinguished definition of national interests. Therefore, the images of China in American eyes were never belonged to any stable type, public opinion in the U.S. has developed many different perspectives on China. ; Public Opinion plays an interesting role in shaping U.S. foreign policy, and the academic community and political observers have repeatedly debated on elaborations of its influence. To examine whether public opinion has participated in the policy making process of U.S. diplomacy is one good way to investigate if the development and expansion of government institutions would undermine the operation of liberal democracy and infringe on personal liberties. ; In order to answer the question in how Public Opinion influences the Government in foreign policy making and how the government, the media and Public interacted, I will conduct empirical studies and News analysis to interpret the New York Times News reports concerning U.S. Foreign Policy towards China in the ...
When the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) was created half a century ago in 1961, its members accounted for the lion's share of the world economy and that remained the case for almost three decades. Major international developments occurred from the late 1980s like the end of the Cold War; and the return of stability, open markets and democracy to Latin America. But the OECD countries' global economic predominance was only really challenged by the rise of East Asia through its export-oriented growth strategies. The OECD responded to all these developments by inviting countries to join the Organisation and participate in outreach activities. But what is striking in this opening of the OECD membership is the lack of a visible presence of Asia and a growing "eurocentricity". The OECD's membership has grown by 10 countries (to 34) over the past 17 years, but only one of these new members (Korea) comes from Asia. Based on current trends, the OECD seems condemned to represent an ever declining share of the world economy. As the OECD enters its second half century, it is very much at a crossroads. This paper argues that for the OECD to be a more effective and legitimate player in global governance, it needs to make a major and immediate effort to recruit large Asian countries as members, even if it means adopting a more flexible approach to membership criteria and adapting the organisation. While Asia's leading economies would have much to gain from joining the OECD and accepting and committing to the Organisation's policy standards, the OECD has to recognize that the global financial crisis has brought the "Western brand" (which the OECD represents) into serious disrepute. This underlines the argument for greater flexibility with respect to membership criteria. As major beneficiaries of globalization, Asia's leading economies arguably have a responsibility to adopt more of the OECD's values-based culture in terms of good governance and transparency. Just as importantly Asia can contribute to this organizational culture which has always evolved and needs to evolve further. This would ultimately be beneficial to them and the global economy, and they would thereby become more responsible stakeholders in the global system. ; Cuando la OCDE fue creada hace medio siglo, en 1961, sus miembros representan la mayor parte de la economía mundial y esa proporción se mantuvo durante las tres décadas siguientes. Algunos acontecimientos internacionales tuvieron importancia durante la década de 1980, como el final de la Guerra Fría, el inicio de una nueva fase de estabilidad y apertura de los mercados y la instauración de la democracia en América Latina. Pero el predominio de los países de la OCDE en economía mundial fue tan sólo desafiado por las economías de Asia Oriental, como resultado de sus estrategias de crecimiento orientado a la exportación. La OCDE respondió a todos estos acontecimientos, invitando a los países a integrarse en la organización y participar en algunas de sus actividades de difusión. Pero lo que sorprende en esa apertura de la OCDE es la falta de presencia relevante de Asia y un creciente "eurocentrismo". En los últimos 17 años, los países miembros de la OCDE han aumentado en diez (34), pero sólo uno de estos nuevos miembros (Corea) proviene de Asia. Sobre la base de las tendencias actuales, la OCDE parece condenada a representar un porcentaje cada vez menor de la economía mundial. La OCDE entra así en su segundo medio siglo en una encrucijada. Este documento sostiene que para que la OCDE sea un agente más eficaz y legítimo en la gobernanza mundial, es necesario que haga un esfuerzo importante e inmediato para integrar grandes países asiáticos como miembros de pleno derecho, incluso si esto significa la adopción de un enfoque más flexible de los criterios de ampliación y adaptación de la organización. Mientras que las principales economías de Asia tienen mucho que ganar al integrarse a la OCDE, aceptando y comprometiéndose con las normas de política de la organización, la OCDE tiene que reconocer que la crisis financiera mundial tiene un claro carácter "occidental" (representativa de la OCDE) que implica un grave descrédito. Esto pone de relieve el argumento que exige una mayor flexibilidad con respecto a los criterios de adhesión Como principales beneficiarios de la globalización, las principales economías de Asia tendrían la responsabilidad de adoptar una la cultura basada en los valores de la OCDE, tanto en términos de buen gobierno como de transparencia. Asimismo, estos países pueden contribuir a una cultura que ha permitido evolucionar a la organización. En última instancia, esto sería beneficioso para Asia y la economía mundial, y constituiría a los países asiáticos en agentes más responsables en el sistema global.
Tourist flows from certain regions of origin to certain destinations display a surprising amount of historical persistence in spite of profound changes in the type of tourism, touristic and transport infrastructure and touristic trends. This might be explained by geographic proximity, complementarity as regards leisure facilities, similarity of languages, cultural affinity etc. One of the most striking examples is the "return" of Czechs as tourists to the Croatian coast. The exceptional in this case is that a traditional flow has regenerated after four decades of almost a break, caused by the global political situation of a Cold War and an Iron Curtain. Czechs, in the first line inhabitants of Prague and other urban centers of the Czech Lands, used to frequent the spas of the northern Croatian coast before World War I in large numbers. Baska on the island of Krk, e.g., owed its development to a seaside resort mainly to Czech interest and Emil Geistlich, a publisher from Prague, who set the first touristic initiatives there. In 1910 the resort was officially titled "Croatian-Czech seaside and health resort" and 3 out of 4 guests originated from the Czech Lands (Sersic, 1994, p. 83). But there were other "national" Czech resorts too. In the interwar period the influx from Czechia became less prominent, albeit it was still remarkable. Even in Opatija, although at that time under Italian administration, in 1929 Czech guests ranked second after German tourists. Yet, Opatija hosted more Czech guests than tourists from Austria or even Italy (Statistica delle stazioni di cura . 1929). During the communist period the flow of tourists from Czechia to the Croatian coast followed quite closely the ups and downs of political liberalization and rigidity oscillating between figures near to zero in the 1940s, 1950s and early 1960s and relative highs in the late 1960s (Prague Spring) and in the mid- 1980s. But immediately after the break-down of Communism in 1989 the flow of Czechoslovakian (actually mainly Czech) tourists to the Croatian coast increased significantly taking advantage of the (due to the wars in Slovenia and Croatia) low prices and easily available accommodation facilities. In 1994 tourists from the Czech Republic held the highest share in foreign overnight stays (Croatian Tourism Figures 1995, p. 24). Already in 1992 Czechoslovakian tourists had spent the relative or absolute majority of foreign tourist nights in 14 resorts statistically documented (Promet turista u primorskim opcinama 1992,1993). Among them were Baska, Krk, Njivice, Rabac, Rab, Kampor and Medveja. ; Turistički promet iz nekih regija prema određenim destinacijama pokazuje iznenađujuće veliku povijesnu postojanost usprkos dubokim promjenama u turizmu, turističkoj i prometnoj infrastrukturi i turističkim trendovima. To se može objasniti geografskom blizinom, komplementarnošću pogodnosti za odmor, sličnošću jezika, kulturnim afinitetom itd. Jedan od iznenađujućih primjera je "povratak" čeških turista na hrvatski Jadran. Posebnost u ovom slučaju je u tome da se tradicionalni dolazak regenerirao nakon četiri desetljeća gotovo potpunog prekida uzrokovanog sveopćom političkom situacijom "hladnog rata" i "željezne zavjese". Česi, u prvom redu stanovnici Praga i drugih urbanih centara bili su u velikom broju česti gosti turističkih mjesta (toplica) na sjevernoj hrvatskoj obali prije Prvog svjetskog rata. Baška na Krku zapravo duguje razvoj u turističko mjesto češkom ulaganju i Emilu Gristlichu, publicisti iz Praga, koji je tu uspostavio prvu turističku inicijativu. Godine 1910. mjesto se zvanično nazivalo "Hrvatsko-češko kupalište i lječilišno mjesto", a tri od četiri gosta bila su iz čeških zemalja (Seršić, 1994:83). Ali, bilo je i drugih "čeških kupališta". Između dva rata dolazak Čeha bio je znatno smanjen iako još uvijek značajan. Čak u Opatiji, iako u to vrijeme pod talijanskom administracijom, 1929., Češki su gosti bili drugi poslije njemačkih turista. Opatijski su hoteli ugostili više čeških turista nego turista iz Austrije ili čak iz Italije (Statistica delle stazioni di cura . 1929.). Za vrijeme komunističkog razdoblja promet turista iz Češke mijenjao se (padao i rastao) u skladu s oscilacijama političke liberalizacije i stege, između brojeva blizu nule u godina 1940-im, 1950-im i ranim 1960-im, i relativno visokih brojeva u kasnijim 1960-im (Praško proljeće) i sredinom 1980-ih. Ali odmah nakon pada komunizma, 1989., promet čehoslovačkih (sada uglavnom Čeha) turista prema hrvatskoj obali značajno se povećao korištenjem prednosti (zbog rata u Sloveniji i Hrvatskoj), niskih cijena i vrlo pogodnih smještajnih usluga. Godine 1994. turisti iz Češke Republike bili su na najvišem mjestu stranih noćenja (Croatian Tourist Figures 1995:24). Već u 1992. godini češki su turisti ostvarili relativnu i apsolutnu većinu stranih turističkih noćenja u 14 mjesta koja su statistički obrađena (Promet turista u primorskim općinama, 1992, 1993). Među njima bili su: Baška, Krk, Njivice, Rabac, Rab, Kampor i Medveja.
Osady interglacjału mazowieckiego w Boczowie występują pod dwoma poziomami glin zwałowych zlodowaceń: północnopolskiego i środkowopolskiego. Z osadów z głęb. 81,5-89;7 m wykonano analizę pyłkową oraz oznaczono owoce, nasiona i megaspory, z czego uzyskano obraz sukcesji roślinnej odpowiadający interglacjałowi. Do interglacjału mazowieckiego zaliczono te osady na podstawie fauny i sytuacji geologicznej oraz korelacji ze stanowiskami interglacjału holsztyńskiego z NRD.INTERGLACIAL DEPOSITS FROM BOCZÓW NEAR RZEPIN (WESTERN POLAND)In the profile of the Quaternary from the vicinities of Boczów (Fig. 1) the deposits of the North and Middle Polish Glaciations are best developed. The thickness of the Quaternary changes from 40 to over 100 m depending on morphology of both the terrain surface and the top surface of the Tertiary. The latter is characterized by large denivellations as Tertiary deposits are glacitectonically piled up to about 140 m a.s.l. on one hand and incised by valleys to 120 m below s.l. on the other hand.At Boczów the deposits of the Masovian Interglacial were penetrated by drilling at depths ranging from 66.5 to 94.0 m below terrain surface (from 21.0 m a.s.l. to 6.5 m below s.l.) so they are 27.5 m thick.The Interglacial series comprises silts, silty sands and gyttja, that is deposits of stagnant and very slowly flowing waters. The list of molluscans identified (Tab. 1) mainly comprises species inhabiting stagnant waters.The profile of Interglacial deposits may be divided into 2 parts: lower, highly variable in lithology and yielding fauna of molluscans, and upper, more monotonous in lithology and usually without faunal remains. They are separated by a cocquina layer about 7 cm thick and mainly consisting of shells of gastropod Paludina diluviana K u n t h (depth interval from 87.53 to 87.60 m). The subdivision into lower and upper parts is further supported by results of palynological studies as the boundary between the phytophases II and III was delineated at the depth of 87.6 m.The pollen analysis covered Interglacial deposits derived from depth interval 81.5-89.7 m (Fig. 2). The results of the analysis as well as identifications of fruits, seeds and megaspores (Tab: 2) made it possible to reconstruct vegetational succession corresponding to Interglacial period.During the first part of this Interglacial (period I) the climate was cold, boreal. Vegetation predominating in these times was forming pine-birch forests. The share of herbaceous plants ,(NAP) was initially fairly high, equal 25010 (Tab. 3). Grasses (Gramineae) and sedges (Cyperaceae) were most common here. There were also :present Chenopodiaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Compositae, Ranunculaceae, Artemisia and other plants. Herbaceous plants were presumably forming wide meadows among pine-birch forests at the beginning of the first period of development of vegetation from Boczów. Pines and birches were accompanied by spruce (Picea) and, sometimes alder (Alnus) whilst stenothermal deciduous trees (Quercus, Ulmus, Tilia) appeared in negligible amounts.The second period was characterized by retreat of birch and a drop in share of pine. Spruce (Picea) and alder (Alnus) were predominating at these times as their share increased up to 34.5% and 32% at the most, respectively. The share of other trees was almost negligible and that of herbaceous plants was also low. This period displayed a marked warming up of climate in relation to the former.A further amelioration of climate took place in the third period which corresponds to the climatic optimum. The resulting climate was of the temperate type. Forests from this period were characterized by predominance of fir (Abies), the share of which was equal 52.5% at the most. The share of alder (Alnus) was equal about 20%. From these times there are also recorded the highest shares of trees such as oak (Quercus - 10.5%), lime-tree (Tilia - 5.0%), hazel (Corylus - 8.0%) and hornbeam (Carpinus - 10.0%). The shares of these stenothermal deciduous trees are not very high as for the climatic optimum but, nevertheless, it may be stated that the whole floral assemblage from this period and shares of its particular components make it possible to allocate the pollen spectrum from Bocz6w in interglacial period.The climate deteriorated during the fourth period, following the climatic optimum. Fir (Abies) as well as hazel (Corylus) and hornbeam (Carpinus) gradually disappeared and the share of oak (Quercus) and alder (Alnus) decreased at the advantage of pine (Pinus) and birch (Betula). The share of herbaceous plants (NAP) also increased, up to 26.5%. The climate predominating at the end of the fourth period was rather cool, boreal.The results of palynological, paleozoological and lithological analyses evidence that this is interglacial deposit. Its age is indicated by the presence of gastropod Paludina diluviana K u n t h. Some conclusions concerning its stratigraphic position may be also grawn from geological setting and correlations with profiles of the Holstein Interglacial in eastern parts of the German Democratic Republic (M. Hannemann, 1964; A. G. Cepek, 1968).
European Foreign and Security Policy The EU represents one in a series of efforts to integrate Europe since World War II, and to achieve, inter alia, diplomatic stability and military security. In 1957 the Treaty of Rome established the European Economic Community (EEC), that was renamed European Communities (EC) by the Maastricht Treaty in 1993. A series of further international treaties and treaty revisions based largely on this model led eventually to the creation of the EU. In the early 1970s the European Political Cooperation (EPC; renamed the Common Foreign and Security Policy by the Maastricht Treaty), consisting of regular meetings of the foreign ministers of each country, was established to coordinate foreign policy. As part of the second pillar of the Maastricht Treaty, members undertook to define and implement common foreign and security policies. Members agreed that, where possible, they would adopt common defense policies, which would be implemented through the Western European Union (WEU), a security organization that included many EU members. The WEU, that run from 1955 until 2011, was made up of 10countries, and operated as a forum for the coordination of matters of European security and defense. The WEU became the primary defense institution of the EU in the 1990s, though it gave up that role in 2001. The assembly of the WEU consisted of the delegates of the member countries to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). The Council of Europe (CoE) is an older and wider circle of nations than the 28-member European Union —it includes, for example, Russia and Turkey among its member states. The WEU contributed to the creation of the NATO and worked in cooperation with the Atlantic Alliance. NATO and the EU currently have 22 member countries in common. Relations between NATO and the EU were institutionalized in 2001, building on steps taken during the 1990s to promote greater European responsibility in defense matters. The 2002 NATO-EU Declaration on a European Security and ...
