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Cover -- CONTENTS -- BACKGROUND -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- OUTLOOK AND POLICIES -- ROLE OF THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE ARRANGEMENT -- A. Benefits of the FCL -- B. Evolution of Risks -- C. Access Considerations under an Adverse Scenario -- D. Exit Strategy -- E. Review of Qualifications -- F. Impact on Fund Finances, Risks, and Safeguards -- G. Staff Appraisal -- BOXES -- 1. Reserve Adequacy for Commodity Exporters: the Case of Colombia -- 2. External Economic Stress Index -- 3. Illustrative Adverse Scenario -- FIGURES -- 1. Recent Economic Developments -- 2. Macroeconomic Policies -- 3. Recent Macro-Financial Developments -- 4. FCL Qualification Criteria -- 5. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective -- 6. Colombia and Selected Countries: Comparing Adverse Scenarios -- 7. Indicators of Doing Business and Institutional Quality -- 8. Oil Price Fan Chart -- 9. Public DSA-Composition of Public Debt and Alternative Scenarios -- 10. Colombia: External Debt Sustainability: Bound Test -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators -- 2a. Summary of Balance of Payments -- 2b. Summary Balance of Payments -- 3. External Financing Requirements and Sources -- 4a. Operations of the Central Government -- 4b. Operations of the Central Government -- 5a. Operations of the Combined Public Sector -- 5b. Operations of the Combined Public Sector -- 6. Monetary Indicators -- 7. Medium-Term Outlook -- 8. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 9. Indicators of External Vulnerability -- 10. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)-Baseline Scenario -- 11. External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2011-20 -- 12. FCL Arrangement for Colombia-Impact of GRA Finances -- 13. Indicators of Fund Credit, 2014-20 -- APPENDIX -- Letter from the Authorities Requesting FCL.

This paper discusses Colombiaâ??s Review Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) Arrangement. Growth is projected to remain robust in 2014 and beyond, although risks are tilted to the downside. Real GDP is projected to grow at around potential in 2014 and over the medium term, with inflation remaining within the target range of 2â??4 percent. However, Colombia remains vulnerable to external risks, including a sharp decline in oil prices and a surge in global financial market volatility. The IMF staff assesses that Colombia continues to meet the qualification criteria for access to FCL resources

Cover -- CONTENTS -- MONETARY AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IN COLOMBIA -- A. Introduction -- B. Neutral Interest Rate -- C. Monetary Conditions Index -- D. Financial Conditions Index -- E. Macro-Risk Premium -- F. Conclusion -- FIGURES -- 1. Exchange Rate Depreciation, Inflation, and Monetary Policy Rate -- 2. Monetary Conditions Index -- 3. FCI and GDP Growth, 2001Q3-2015Q3 -- 4. Contributions to FCI, 2008Q1-2015Q4 -- 5. Factor Loadings in FCI -- 6. MRP and Real GDP Growth -- 7. EMBI Spreads versus Lending Spreads -- TABLES -- 1. Estimates of the Neutral Interest Rate

Cover -- CONTENTS -- ABBREVIATIONS -- PREFACE -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- FISCAL REPORTING -- 1.1. Coverage of Fiscal Reports -- 1.2. Frequency and Timeliness -- 1.3. Quality -- 1.4. Integrity -- 1.5. Conclusions and Recommendations -- FISCAL FORECASTING AND BUDGETING -- 2.1. Comprehensiveness of Budget Documentation -- 2.2. Orderliness and Timeliness of the Budget Process -- 2.3. Policy Orientation -- 2.4. Credibility -- 2.5. Conclusions and Recommendations -- FISCAL RISKS -- 3.1. Disclosure and Analysis -- 3.2. Risk Management -- 3.3. Fiscal Coordination -- 3.4. Conclusions and Recommendations -- BOXES -- 1. The Colombian Pension System -- 2. The Comptroller General of the Republic (CGR) -- 3. Possible Structure and Content of an Annual Fiscal Risk Statement -- 4. State-Owned Financial Institutions -- 5. Legal Form of Colombian SOEs -- FIGURES -- 1. Summary Assessment -- 2. Fiscal Transparency Evaluation Scores - International Comparison -- 3. OBI Score (2015 Survey) -- 4. Coverage of Public Sector Institutions in Fiscal Reports -- 5. Public Sector Balance Sheet Coverage in Fiscal Reports, 2015 -- 6. Public Sector Net Worth in Selected Countries -- 7. Public Sector Gross Liabilities in Selected Countries -- 8. Tax Expenditures, 2015 -- 9. Tax Expenditures in Selected Countries -- 10. Evaluation of Macroeconomic and Fiscal Forecasts, 2009-2016 -- 11. Unsolicited PPP Proposal in Colombia in Comparative Perspective -- 12. Distribution of Public Procurement by Modality, 2016 -- 13. GDP Volatility -- 14. Payments Under Legal Claims -- 15. Forecast Transfers from the Budget to the Pension Scheme -- 16. Government Guarantees in Selected Countries 2015 -- 17. PPP Projects by Type and Contingent Exposure, 2016-27 -- 18. Fogafin Reserve Developments -- 19. A Layered Approach to Disaster Risk Financing -- 20. SOE Portfolio

Cover -- CONTENTS -- BACKGROUND -- CONTEXT: THE COLOMBIAN ECONOMY AT A TURNING POINT -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS: A RECOVERY IN THE MAKING -- POLICY ISSUES -- A. Structural Reforms to Support Inclusive Medium-Term Growth -- B. Fine Tuning Monetary Policy Decisions -- C. Continuing Near-Term Fiscal Consolidation -- D. Preserving Financial Stability -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Macroeconomic Forecast Errors -- 2. Governance and Transparency -- 3. Recent Progress on the 4G Infrastructure Agenda -- 4. Labor Informality -- 5. Central Bank Transparency and Communication Frameworks in Colombia -- 6. Colombian Pension System: Diagnosis and Reform Options -- 7. Non-Performing Loans Forecast to Decline with Recovery -- FIGURES -- 1. Recent Economic Developments -- 2. External Sector Developments -- 3. Macroeconomic Policies -- 4. Recent Macro-Financial Developments -- 5. Corporate Developments -- 6. Structural Bottlenecks -- 7. Social Indicators -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators -- 2a. Summary Balance of Payments (In millions of US) -- 2b. Summary Balance of Payments (In Percent of GDP) -- 3. Operations of the Central Government -- 4. Operations of the Combined Public Sector -- 5. Monetary Indicators -- 6. Medium-Term Outlook -- 7. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 8. Indicators of External Vulnerability -- 9. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) - Baseline Scenario -- 10. Public DSA - Composition of Public Debt and Alternative Scenarios -- 11. External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2012-23 -- 12. External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests -- ANNEX -- I. External Sector Assessment -- CONTENTS -- FUND RELATIONS -- WORLD BANK RELATIONS -- INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK RELATIONS -- STATISTICAL ISSUES.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- Glossary -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- KEY FINDINGS -- DETAILED ASSESSMENT REPORT -- ML/TF RISKS AND CONTEXT -- A. ML/TF Risks and Scoping of Higher-Risk Issues -- NATIONAL AML/CFT POLICIES AND COORDINATION -- A. Key Findings -- B. Recommended Actions -- C. Immediate Outcome 1 (Risk, Policy and Coordination) -- LEGAL SYSTEM AND OPERATIONAL ISSUES -- A. Key Findings -- B. Recommended Actions -- C. Immediate Outcome 6 (Financial Intelligence ML/TF) -- D. Immediate Outcome 7 (ML Investigation and Prosecution) -- E. Immediate Outcome 8 (Confiscation) -- TERRORIST FINANCING AND FINANCING OF PROLIFERATION -- A. Key Findings -- B. Recommended Actions -- C. Immediate Outcome 9 (TF Investigation and Prosecution) -- D. Immediate Outcome 10 (TF Preventive Measures and Financial Sanctions) -- E. Immediate Outcome 11 (PF Financial Sanctions) -- PREVENTIVE MEASURES -- A. Key Findings -- B. Recommended Actions -- C. Immediate Outcome 4 (Preventive Measures) -- SUPERVISION -- A. Key Findings -- B. Recommended Actions -- C. Immediate Outcome 3 (Supervision) -- LEGAL PERSONS AND ARRANGEMENTS -- A. Key Findings -- B. Recommended Actions -- C. Immediate Outcome 5 (Legal Persons and Arrangements) -- INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION -- A. Key Findings -- B. Recommended Actions -- C. Immediate Outcome 2 (International Cooperation) -- BOXES -- 1. Implications of FARC Peace Proces -- 2. UIAF Case -- 3. Cash Couriers and ML -- 4. Examples Where the Asset Forfeiture Mechanism was Successfully Applied in High-Value Cases -- 5. Azafatas Case -- 6. Providing Weapons to the FARC -- 7. Example Where the International Cooperation Sought by Colombia Played a Key Role -- TABLES -- 1. Types of Financial Institutions -- 2. Other Reporting Entities by Sector -- 3. AML/CFT Preventive Measures -- 4. Number of Entities Registered as of May 2017.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- POLICIES -- REVIEW OF QUALIFICATION -- SAFEGUARDS ASSESSMENT -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOX -- 1. Updated External Economic Stress Index -- FIGURES -- 1. Recent Economic Developments -- 2. External Sector Developments -- 3. Recent Financial Developments -- 4. Non-Resident Investors in Local Currency Government Debt -- 5. FCL Qualification Criteria -- 6. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective -- 7. External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators -- 2a. Summary Balance of Payments (In millions of US) -- 2b. Summary Balance of Payments (In percent of GDP) -- 3. Operations of the Central Government -- 4. Operations of the Combined Public Sector -- 5. Monetary Indicators -- 6. Medium-Term Outlook -- 7. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 8. Indicators of External Vulnerability -- 9. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis - Baseline Scenario -- 10. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis - Composition of Public Debt and Alternative Scenarios -- 11. External Debt Sustainability Framework -- 12. Indicators of Fund Credit.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- REVIEW OF QUALIFICATION -- SAFEGUARDS ASSESSMENT -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOX -- 1. Updated External Economic Stress Index -- FIGURES -- 1. Recent Economic Developments -- 2. External Sector Developments -- 3. FCL Qualification Criteria -- 4. Reserve Coverage in International Perspective -- 5. Indicators of Institutional Quality -- 6. External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators -- 2A. Summary Balance of Payments (In millions of US) -- 2B. Summary Balance of Payments (In percent of GDP) -- 3. Operations of the Central Government -- 4. Operations of the Combined Public Sector -- 5. Monetary Indicators -- 6. Medium-Term Outlook -- 7. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 8. Indicators of External Vulnerability -- 9. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) - Baseline Scenario -- 10. Public DSA - Composition of Public Debt and Alternative Scenarios -- 11. External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2012.22 -- 12. Indicators of Fund Credit, 2016.22.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- OUTLOOK AND POLICIES -- ROLE OF THE FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE ARRANGEMENT -- A. Benefits of the FCL -- B. Evolution of Risks and Exposures -- C. Access Considerations Under an Adverse Scenario -- D. Exit Strategy -- E. Assessment of Qualification -- F. Impact on Fund Finances, Risks, and Safeguards -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Foreign Investors' Participation in Local Government Debt -- 2. External Economic Stress Index -- FIGURES -- 1. FCL Qualification Criteria -- 2. Reserve Coverage in an International Perspective -- 3. Colombia and Selected Countries: Comparing Adverse Scenarios -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators -- 2a. Summary Balance of Payments (In millions of US) -- 2b. Summary Balance of Payments (In Percent of GDP) -- 3. External Financing Requirements and Sources, 2016-19 -- 4. Operations of the Central Government -- 5. Operations of the Combined Public Sector -- 6. Monetary Indicators -- 7. Medium-Term Outlook -- 8. Financial Soundness Indicators -- 9. Indicators of External Vulnerability -- 10. Public Sector Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) - Baseline Scenario -- 11. Public DSA - Composition of Public Debt and Alternative Scenarios -- 12. Indicators of Fund Credit, 2017-23 -- 13. External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2013-24 -- 14. External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests -- APPENDIX -- I. Written Communication -- CONTENTS -- INTRODUCTION -- BACKGROUND -- THE PROPOSED FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE ARRANGEMENT― RISKS AND IMPACT ON FUND FINANCES -- ASSESSMENT -- TABLES -- 1. Total External Debt, 2012-17 -- 2. Capacity to Repay Indicators -- 3. FCL Arrangement-Impact on GRA Finances -- ANNEX -- History of IMF Arrangements.