Suchergebnisse

Recent state and local elections in Louisiana
essentially confirmed
that Republicans as expected would pick up a seat in each chamber in the
Legislature, but produce a more conservative Senate beyond that.

Before any votes were cast, Republicans already
had sewed up majorities in both legislative chambers. In the Senate, 12 were
elected unopposed (including those who originally had opponents later
disqualified) while another 10 featured all-GOP contests. In the House, 31 eventually
faced no opposition and 25 were all-GOP affairs. Democrats were guaranteed 8
Senate seats and 29 in the House. This meant fewer than half of Senate seats
had any competition at all, and in the House just over half did.

Of the remaining 9 Senate and 20 House contests –
meaning inter-party competition in only 23 percent in the Senate and 19 percent
in the House – 4 in the Senate were heads-up matches between the two major
parties and 5 such in the House, although in another couple a Republican went
head-to-head with a non-Democrat (and another with multiple Republicans running),
so party composition of these would be resolved with certainty. In all, the Senate
had 5 party-contested races in GOP-leaning districts and in 3 leaning to
Democrats, while in the House this occurred in 12 with a tilt to Republicans
and in 5 tilting to Democrats.

When the dust settled, Republicans not only had
retained supermajorities in each chamber, but increased the size of these. In the
Senate, parties picked up their expected wins and sent only two races to a runoff,
one each contested only by members of each major party, leaving the GOP with a
seat increase and 28-11 advantage. Only one incumbent, Republican Robert Mills, lost, to another
Republican after four years ago having become only one of three Senate newcomers
to defeat an incumbent.

GOP gains look similar in the House. Of the 18
contests going to a runoff, 5 were all-Democrat and 8 all-Republican, with an
additional Democrat/no party matchup. Of the 17 competitive contests with both
major parties involved, Democrats won 3 of their 5 and Republicans (outright or
with both in the runoff) won 9 of their 12, including its true tossup District
85. By general election results, the GOP is heavily favored to win its remaining
competitive districts, and the Democrat/no party contest tilts well to the favor
of Democrats.

The only district leaning to one party that the
other might take is Democrats' true tossup, HD 105, where Democrat incumbent
Mack Cormier substantially trailed Republican Jacob
Braud. Barely missing the runoff was Democrat Joanna Capiello-Leopold, but
as the wife of Republican former Rep. Chris Leopold who Cormier beat four years
ago – the only House incumbent to lose last cycle – don't look for fellow Democrats
to unite on the runoff, giving Braud the edge. If he does win, that gives the
GOP a 72-33 advantage, up a seat currently.

And if so, he may join the solitary incumbent to lose
in the House, HD 31's Republican Jonathan Goudreau
to Republican Troy Hebert. In remaining races featuring an incumbent, two involve
Democrats only and two Republicans only and in HD 70 Republican Barbara Freiberg faces
Democrat challenger Steve Myers, but all incumbents had led significantly heading
into the runoff.

Viewing the ideological composition of each
chamber taking into account existing legislators and retirements, the House
should creep a bit to the right, mainly because of the HD 85 outcome that may
be strengthened by the eventual HD 105 resolution. Both targeted consistent
conservatives and moderate Republicans survived (with HD 18 Jeremy LaCombe's, a Democrat-turned-Republican,
contest pending).

That wasn't the case in the Senate, where disproportionately
GOP moderates retired and ended up replaced with more conservative Republicans
from the House, which could ease it closer to the House's existing more conservative
tint. If incoming
governor Republican Atty. Gen. Jeff
Landry lobbies for it with attention paid to new House members in particular,
there should be enough sentiment in each chamber to select a leadership willing
to break the logjam of conservative legislation stalled over the past few years.

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The vanguard of American conservatism is Florida — at least, according to its governor. The state is on "the front lines in the battle for freedom," Gov. Ron DeSantis said to the Florida legislature in March, telling lawmakers that "we have the opportunity and indeed the responsibility to swing for the fences so that we […]

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In my first post (here) on Mary Harrington's (2023) Feminism Against Progress, I focused on her views on the family and suggested that not unlike Yoram Hazony (in his (2022) book, Conservatism: A Rediscovery), she rejects the patriarchic 'nuclear family' embraced by American, Christian-ethno-nationalists. Instead they both defend what they call the 'traditional family,' which in Harrington's argument […]

Inspired by the stacks of books in her parents' home, Republican strategist Sarah Longwell once thought she might become a poet. But at Kenyon College, she found herself more captivated by political science than writing. Sarah joined David to talk about coming out as gay in a very conservative professional environment, her work to keep Donald Trump from winning in 2020, the struggle to separate true conservatism from the current culture wars, why she believes Joe Biden shouldn't run for reelection, and what happens if Trump wins in 2024.
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That was fast. On 8 June, only 11 days after the Polish so-called 'Lex Tusk' was signed into force, the Commission launched an infringement procedure against Poland. For the first time, the Commission is relying on the principle of democracy in Art. 10 TEU as an autonomous plea, dropping another bombshell shortly after the first direct invocation of Art. 2 TEU in infringement proceedings against Hungary earlier this year. This contribution discusses both the perks and potential perils of the direct enforcement of the principle of democracy in Art. 10 TEU. On the one hand, a shift from what is arguably better called 'militant rule of law' towards more literally EU militant democracy is a positive development, as it better captures the nature and range of the principles which are de facto under threat in several EU Member States. On the other hand, the present infringement action illustrates the principled challenge of militant democracy to preserve the possibility of democratic regime change, all whilst not lapsing into a form of institutional conservatism.

With Louisiana
state elections complete for the next four years (outside of rolling Public
Service Commission contests), state government partisan balance changed in just
one significant way, but the political dynamics transformed a lot.

That's as Republican Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry last month won the
governorship, flipping the post from term-limited Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards.
This had the additional impact of assuring essentially a 9-2 advantage on the
Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, as the governor appoints three
members to it, along with election results that returned a 6-2 GOP advantage.

This means the slim majority held by reformers
becomes quite safe, in that with the elections of Republicans Stacey Melerine
and Kevin Berken this added two more to their ranks. One consequence will be substantial
change to a policy just implemented, where a term-limited Republican defector was
the deciding vote in putting through a weak and subjective appeal mechanism to
the requirement of low standardized test scores to graduate. Expect that soon
to be tossed out, or at least toughened into something meaningful.

Republicans also swept easily the remaining three
statewide offices, Nancy Landry for secretary of state, Liz Murrill for
attorney general, and John Fleming for treasurer. Actually, Landry's and
Murrill's ascensions are promotions from within, and Fleming has extensive
government experience from time in Congress and the White House.

After the dust settled, Republicans ended up
adding a seat-holder in each chamber of the Legislature, flipping the only interparty-competitive
seat in the House (there had been one picked up with independent state Rep. Joe Marino's retirement
decided last month, and no interparty-competitive seats in the Senate). That
makes for final totals of 72-33 in the House and 28-11 in the Senate, with GOP
supermajorities in both instances. Within those are 34 newcomers in the House
and 10 in the Senate, although only two were true rookies who hadn't served in
the House this term (in fact, two-thirds of senators have preceded Senate seats
with House service). In all, of incumbents who ran only a couple of House incumbents
and one from the Senate lost.

The House will see a slightly more conservative
body, through the defeat of Democrat Mack Cormier
by Republican Jacob Braud, Marino replaced by Republican Vincent Cox, and
Republican Mary
DuBuisson losing to Republican Brian Glorioso. The Senate will see more change
towards conservatism, with term-limited Democrat Gary Smith replaced by
Republican Gregory
Miller and four other conservative Republicans defeating more moderate
Republicans for open seats.

And that trend towards more conservatism likely will
continue if the Legislature pursues a course many of its members and Landry
have supported: instituting closed primary elections. The blanket primary
system now disproportionately assists moderates such as recent GOP convert Jeremy LaCombe,
who switched from Democrat as an electoral aid without showing any real ideological
change in floor voting but who managed as a result to win reelection against a
more conservative challenger. By creating primary elections limited to party
registrants, in districts where a Republican will win Democrats and other
non-party members won't be able to influence which GOP candidate comes out on
top.

With the more moderate contingent of Republicans who
would resist this having dwindled further as a result of these elections, and
with a governor who won't veto such a measure, the votes likely are there not only
to make federal, local, and PSC elections subject to closed primaries for 2026,
but also including all state elections for 2027. There's much pent-up demand for
not only conservative policies but also for excising embedded liberal policies
that Edwards as governor served as a regressive force against, that Landry and
the Legislature will tackle over the next four years, but beyond that they may
wish to set the stage to prevent the wasted last eight years ever from occurring
again by reforming the primary process.