Suchergebnisse

Data from the 1977 national election survey of Dutch voters are used to test a hypothetico-deductive model of party preference formation, based on the supposition that voters tend to express a preference for the parties with which their views on a particular set of issues are most consistent. The parties examined are the PvdA (Labor), CDA (Christian Democratic), & VVD (Conservative-Liberal). Multiple-regression analysis allows explanation of about 40% of differences in party preference between voters on the basis of voters' stands on issues. Comparison of voters' stands & perceived party stands appears to predict expressed party preference adequately in 69% of cases. These results give support for the view that human behavior is not blindly mechanistic, but involves some minimal level of reflection. Consideration of methodological problems leads to the conclusion that relatively simple models resting on clear theoretical assumptions are preferable to more sophisticated models, which have less solid theoretical foundations & do not gain in explanatory or predictive power. 11 Tables, 1 Graph, Appendix. Modified HA.

While Christian Democratic parties in several Western European countries are often said to be in crisis, the European People's Party holds the largest parliamentary group in the European Parliament since 1999. This paradox relies on the specificity of the different 'national' electoral logics, on the one hand, & the realization of a long-term 'European' majority strategy, on the other. The alliance with Conservatives & Conservative parties has to overcome an absolute electoral decline in 'old' EU countries & a relative decline through the accession of 'new' member states without Christian Democratic parties. The EPP majority strategy is realized through various ways: the key position of the transnational party & party group, the role of political leadership, the way of decision making, the cooperation with side organizations, the problem solving of ideological conflicts, etc. Our analysis proves how the majority strategy of the European Christian Democrats realizes its ultimate 'survival strategy' despite (or thanks to) several national party crises. 2 Tables. Adapted from the source document.