Suchergebnisse

AbstractThe main objective of this article is to investigate how national culture and sociopolitical environment influence the level of wine consumption in a representative panel of countries. Culture is defined as the consumption practices related to economic, social, and cultural aspects and institutional factors. A single equation analysis is based on a cross section of countries representing 90% of wine consumption in the world for the period 2003–2017. In order to draw a final model explaining wine consumption through the cultural peculiarities of a country and to avoid multicollinearity among independent variables, a principal component analysis is performed and a random‐effects GLS regression model is applied to determine the set of cultural variables which are the most significant in affecting wine consumption.

AbstractOutput fluctuations in the G7 are characterized using a VAR model of countries' actual and expected outputs and uncertainty over these. New measures are developed to quantify the relative importance of economic prospects‐versus‐uncertainty, global‐versus‐national effects and fundamentals‐versus‐sentiment for countries' persistent output movements. National and global contributions are found to be equally important across the G7 although considerable differences exist between countries. Uncertainty, and especially cross‐country uncertainty, is important in propagating the effects of shocks and generates around 20% of countries' persistent output movements on average. Fundamentals dominate output movements although, with an 80:20 split, sentiment plays a non‐negligible role.RésuméLe rôle de l'incertitude, du sentiment, et des interactions entre pays dans la dynamique de production du G7. Les fluctuations du produit agrégé dans le G7 sont caractérisées par un modèle vectoriel autorégressif des produits observés et anticipés des pays, ainsi que de l'incertitude qui entoure ces mesures. De nouvelles mesures sont développées pour quantifier l'importance relative des perspectives‐versus‐l'incertitude, des effets globaux‐versus‐nationaux, et des fondamentaux‐versus‐croyances et sentiments dans l'explication des mouvements persistants dans la production des pays. Il appert que les contributions des dimensions globales et nationales sont également importantes à travers le G7, même si des différences considérables existent entre pays. L'incertitude, et particulièrement l'incertitude entre pays, est importante dans le processus de propagation des effets des chocs, et génère environ 20 % en moyenne des mouvements de production persistants des pays. Les fondamentaux dominent les mouvements de la production, mais avec un rapport 80–20, le sentiment joue un rôle non‐négligeable.

Abstract.  Sticky price models based on menu costs predict that countries with high trend inflation should have (i) smaller impact effects of demand shocks on output and (ii) less persistent output fluctuations, relative to low‐trend inflation countries. These predictions are tested, controlling for changes in trend inflation, using a country‐specific approach. The results do not support the second prediction. That prediction is also not robust to a modified measure of trend inflation that excludes episodes of hyperinflation. These findings suggest that while price stickiness is important for understanding short‐run impact effects, real propagation mechanisms may drive persistence in output fluctuations.

This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using input-output data on real-world inter-sectoral dependencies for several European countries before the Great Depression. We show that the impact of economic shocks strongly depends on the nature of the shock and country size. Shocks that impact on final demand without changing production and the technological relationships between sectors have on average a large but very homogeneous impact on the economy. Conversely, when shocks change also the magnitudes of input-output across-sector interdependencies (and possibly sector production), the economy is subject to predominantly large but more heterogeneous avalanche sizes. In this case, we also find that: (i) the more a sector is globally central in the country network, the largest its impact; (ii) the largest European countries, such as those constituting the core of the European Union's economy, typically experience the largest avalanches, signaling their intrinsic higher vulnerability to economic shocks.