Suchergebnisse

The crisis of 2001 & 2002 & the recovery from the crisis are an excellent example of the cyclical nature of Argentine politics & economics. The analysis of the evolution of the crisis is important in order to compare it with the key issues of regional development in Latin America in the 1980s, namely the "double transition" from authoritarianism to democracy & from state interventionism to market economy. Graphs, References. Adapted from the source document.

The article discusses Strategic Studies from its beginnings in support of the plea of its central role in National Defense affairs. It discusses why such an 'interdiscipline' came into being, the cyclical character of its application in civilian & military education & research & the capital role of Clausewitzs Theory of War in its development. It shares, as conclusions, some concerns about the current state of Strategic Studies. Adapted from the source document.

The present wave of privatization and the relative success of the neoliberal criticism against the economic role of the state are part of the cyclical character of state intervention. Brazil is now in the downturn of the cycle. During the upturn, state intervention, measured in terms of nationaliziations and increase in regulation, is initially successful, but after some time it runs in increasing distortions which lead to a reduction and to a change in the patterns of state intervention

China's rise is one of the hottest issues among international relations scholars & experts. However, China's rise is an event with some centuries. The future is unknown but the past may give us some clues because China's history is cyclical. Some are worried about China's rise, others fear it will collapse in the future. From the analysis of the past examples & from the policies adopted by the third & forth generation leaders, we may examine whether the rise of China as a major power will be peaceful. Tables, Graphs, 1 Diagram, References. Adapted from the source document.

This paper reviews the principal neo-liberal policy measures implemented in Latin America in the last decade and their impact on equity. It first emphasizes the difficulty of separating the repercussions of liberalization measures from the necessary fiscal adjustments of the 1980s, and their transitional versus long run effects, and then places the observed tendencies in distribution in a global and cyclical context. The second part looks at neo-liberal innovations in historical perspective and argues that their overall impact is unlikely to be regressive. Over the long run, developments in factor markets will prove to be of overriding importance in determining the evolution of the distribution of income. (Rev Econ Polit/DÜI)

This paper provides new evidence for the empirical literature that investigates the presence of political cycles in public investments in Brazil. This approach differs from most of the studies for applying the state-space modeling whose greatest benefit is estimating the cyclical component endogenously and with greater precision. Another difference is that it considers the presence of cycles in central, states and local investments and central government capital transfers allowing a wider vision of the general government sector and of the intergovernmental relations. The main contributions come from the identification of qualitative differences among the political cycles of each government level - pointing to a smaller degree of direct influence of local elections as it progresses from local to state and central levels - and the close relation between the two-year cycles of central government transfers and of the investment of state and local levels.

This is a personal account of the definition of "new developmentalism" - a national development strategy alternative to the Washington consensus -, and of a "structuralist development macroeconomics": the sum of models that justifies theoretically that strategy. It is personal account of a collective work involving Keynesian, institutionalist and structuralist economists in Brazil that are forming a new school of thought in Brazil: a Keynesian-structuralist school. It is Keynesian because it emphasizes the demand side or the investment opportunities' side of economic growth. It is institutionalist because institutions obviously matter in achieving growth and stability. It is structuralist because it defines economic development as a structural change from low to high value added per capita industries and because it is based on two structural tendencies that limit investment opportunities: the tendency of wages to grow below productivity and the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate. (Rev Econ Polit/GIGA)

The purpose of this article is to analyze the principal aspects of the new regulation, the so-called "Lei de Responsabilidade na Gestão Fiscal" using the framework of the budget imbalance as a government failure. The principle of the new regulation is that if the government planning is highly detailed and the deficit is under control, we will observe neither inflation nor debt pressures. There are two great issues of control: limits to expenditures with personnel salaries and the amount of debt. The new regulation restrains the public action during the last year of mandate and deals with the importance of spreading information on fiscal issues and the public participation on the budgetary practices. Despite the good aspects of the regulation - especially on the last year of a given government's expenditures, there are still some problems: the lack of discussion on the adequate size and functions of the government and the anti-cyclical component of the government action which is despised by the law. (Rev Econ Pol/DÜI)

This article presents a comparative analysis of two concepts proposed and developed in two very different areas: the concept of themata, proposed by Gerald Holton in the area of ​​the history of science and related to the processes of production and diffusion of scientific knowledge, and the concept of Pathosformeln, proposed by Aby Warburg in the area of history of art and related to some important historical and epochal continuities of artistic production. Despite the very different disciplinary contexts in which they were proposed, and despite the specificities that naturally ensure the identity of each of the concepts, it is shown in this article how themata and Pathosformeln have undeniable and important affinities. In fact, both correspond to entities that have a long historical persistence, a cyclical nature, and a great disciplinary, cultural and epochal transversality, in conjunction with a great capacity to assume specific forms at a given time and in a given context. Despite the roots in very different areas, the affinities are strong enough to recognize that themata and Pathosformeln belong to a conceptual network with great potential for understanding, not only the science and art, but also the historical and transdisciplinary dynamics of culture in general.

This paper estimates a fiscal reaction function for Brazil and investigates how thegovernment´s fiscal reaction has changed over time when controlling for cyclical variationsin output and the relative participation of indexed debt. Using monthly datasince 1991, we estimate a rolling reaction function with a one observation step and asample-window of 12 observations. Our results indicate that the government´s fiscalresponse has been such that a one percent increase in the debt-GDP ratio can be associatedto an average increase in the primary surplus of approximately 0.096% over GDPor 9.6 basis points; the government´s fiscal reaction has become more stable but lessresponsive to the debt-income level after 2000 and assumed a declining trend after 2006. ; O artigo revisita a questão da sustentabilidade da política fiscal brasileira analisando asrespostas fiscais do governo a alterações na razão dívida-PIB, com vistas a avaliar qualtem sido a resposta fiscal média do governo brasileiro, e como essa resposta fiscal temvariado ao longo do tempo. Utilizando dados mensais e controlando para variaçõesno produto e participação relativa de títulos indexados, estimamos funções de reaçãosequenciais com uma janela móvel de 12 observações. Os resultados indicam que apolítica fiscal no período foi sustentável, com uma resposta fiscal média do governoconsolidado de 0.096 pontos percentuais no superávit primário para um aumento deum ponto percentual na relação dívida-PIB. Verificamos ainda que a função de reaçãotornou-se mais estável, porém menos sensível a aumentos da relação dívida/PIB apóso ano de 2000 e assumiu uma tendência declinante após 2006.