Manufacturing visions, integrating diverse perspectives into pan-European foresight (ManVis): Delphi interpretation report; deliverable D15
In: ManVis report 3
42 Ergebnisse
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In: ManVis report 3
In: International journal of social science research and review, Band 5, Heft 8, S. 115-129
ISSN: 2700-2497
In recent years, violence among learners has escalated in many schools in South Africa. This has raised concern in society on whether the measures put in place to address the problem works. For this reason, we set to investigate the cause and measures to curb school violence in two schools in a disadvantaged community of Mabopane, Gauteng Province. We selected a township setting as the context of our research. This choice is informed by frequent occurrences of violence in high schools. We used a qualitative research approach to collect data through semi-structured interviews with twelve learners (n=6) from two high schools in the township of Mabopane. The findings Suggest that lack of control of learners, as demontrated by learners loitering around during clases, gambling, and drug abuse are the primary causes contributing to violence.
In: JBF-D-24-00012
SSRN
We estimate the effect of grant aid on poor college students' attainment and earnings using student-level administrative data from four-year public colleges in Texas. To identify these effects, we exploit a discontinuity in grant generosity as a function of family income. Eligibility for the maximum Pell Grant significantly increases degree receipt and earnings beginning four years after entry. Within 10 years, imputed taxes on eligible students' earnings gains fully recoup total government expenditures generated by initial eligibility. To clarify how these estimates relate to social welfare, we develop a general theoretical model and derive sufficient statistics for the welfare implications of changes in the price of college. Whether additional grant aid increases welfare depends on (1) net externalities from recipients' behavioral responses and (2) a direct effect of mitigating credit constraints or other frictions that inflate students' in-school marginal utility. Calibrating our model using nationally representative consumption data suggests that increasing grant aid for the average college student by $1 could generate negative externalities as high as $0.50 and still improve welfare. Applying our welfare formula and estimated direct effects to our setting and others suggests considerable welfare gains from grants that target low-income students.
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Wage inequality in Chile has remained high for decades and it is currently at the center of the political agenda. Increasing education of workers is expected to contribute to reduce wage inequality. Based on historical trends of age, education, and returns to education, this paper attempts to forecast wage inequality. Despite an increase in average earnings due to higher levels of education of workers, high levels of wage inequality within age groups and within education groups produce that forecasted wage inequality remains high for the next 10-year period. The structure of the Chilean labor market appears to imply that there is a high level of underlying wage inequality. Nevertheless, the good news are that the labor market structure seems to prevent further deteriorations of wage inequality.
BASE
Introduction Military training loads may induce different physiological responses in garrison and field training and only a little is known about how short-time recovery, lasting a few days, affects neuromuscular fitness and hormonal profile. This study aimed to investigate the effects of garrison and field military service on neuromuscular performance and hormonal profile and to evaluate the effects of a 3-day recovery on those factors. Methods Twenty healthy male soldiers (20 ± 1 years) participated in the study, which consisted of 4 days of garrison training [days (D) 1–4] and 7 days of military field training (Days 5–12) followed by a 3-day recovery period (Day 15). Serum hormone concentrations [testosterone (TES), cortisol (COR), sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG), free thyroxine (T4)] were assessed at D1, D5, D8–12, and D15. Handgrip strength was measured in 10 participants at D1, D5, D8, D12, and D15. Maximal isometric force, electromyography, and rate of force development (RFD) of the knee extensors and arm flexors were also measured at D5, D12, and D15. Results The maximal force of both the arm flexors and knee extensors was not affected by the garrison or field training, whereas the RFD of the knee extensors was decreased during the field training (D5: 383 ± 130 vs. D12: 321 ± 120 N/s, p < 0.05). In addition, handgrip strength was mostly no affected, although a significant difference was observed between D8 and D12 (531 ± 53 vs. 507 ± 43 N, p < 0.05) during the field training. TES decreased already during the garrison training (D1: 18.2 ± 3.9 vs. D5: 16.2 ± 4.0 nmol/L, p < 0.05) and decreased further during the field training compared to baseline (D8: 10.2 ± 3.6 - D11: 11.4 ± 5.4 nmol/L, p < 0.05) exceeding the lowest concentration in the end of the field training (D12: 7.1 ± 4.1 nmol/L, p < 0.05). Similar changes were observed in free TES (D1: 72.2 ± 31.4 vs. D12: 35.1 ± 21.5 nmol/L, p < 0.001). The TES concentration recovered back to the baseline level and free TES increased after the recovery period compared with the baseline values (D15: 19.9 ± 5.3 nmol/L, D15: 99.7 ± 41.1 nmol/L, respectively). No changes were observed in the COR or SHBG concentrations during the garrison period. COR was decreased in the end of the field training (D12: 388 ± 109 nmol/L) compared with baseline (D1: 536 ± 113 nmol/L) (p < 0.05–0.001) but recovered back to the baseline levels after the recovery period (D15: 495 ± 58 nmol/L), whereas SHBG linearly increased towards the end of the field training (p < 0.05–0.001). Conclusions The present findings demonstrate that neuromuscular performance can be relatively well maintained during short-term garrison and field training even when a clear decrease in hormonal profile is evident. In addition, hormonal responses during field training seem to be greater compared to garrison training, however, the recovery of 3-day in free-living conditions seems to be sufficient for hormonal recovery. Therefore, a short-term recovery period lasting few days after the military field training may be required to maintain operational readiness after the field training. ; peerReviewed
BASE
We measure consumers' readiness to face emergency expenses. Based on data from a representative survey of US consumers, we find that financial readiness varies widely across consumers, with lowest-income, least-educated, unemployed, and black consumers most likely to have $0 saved for emergency expenses. For these consumers, even a temporary financial shock, either an unexpected negative income shock (such as a layoff or a short-term government shutdown) or an unexpected expenditure (such as a medical expense or a car repair), could have severe financial consequences. The literature likely underestimates the consequences, because consumers who are not financially prepared to cover unexpected expenses are more likely to borrow on their credit cards, adding to their existing debt. Thus the cost of relying on credit cards is likely very high for consumers who are already financially vulnerable. We use panel data to examine whether consumers who experienced a substantial drop in income from one year to the next, like one resulting from a layoff or a government shutdown, increased their credit card borrowing. We do not find evidence that a negative income shock raises consumers' likelihood of revolving on credit cards or increasing the amount borrowed.
BASE
In: ZUMA-Methodenbericht, Band 2007/06
Inhaltsverzeichnis: Andrea Lengerer/ Julia H. Schroedter/ Tobias Hubert: Kapitel A Übersicht (A1-A19); Andrea Lengerer: Kapitel B Methodische Variablen (B1-B34); Andrea Lengerer: Kapitel C Standardvariablen (C1-C28); Tobias Hubert: Kapitel D Regionalangaben (D1-D15); Tobias Hubert: Kapitel E Erwerbstätigkeit (E1-E48); Julia H. Schroedter/ Tobias Hubert: Kapitel F Bildung (F1-F42); Andrea Lengerer/ Mara Boehle: Kapitel G Einkommen (G1-G35); Julia H. Schroedter/ Andrea Lengerer: Kapitel H Haushalt und Familie (H1-H40); Julia H. Schroedter: Kapitel I Nationalität und Migration (I1-I22).
Elderly households hold most of their wealth in housing, maintain high levels of wealth throughout retirement, and often leave bequests. The value of their houses are subject to large shocks. To what extent do these shocks affect their savings, consumption, and bequests? Answering this question requires separating precautionary savings, bequest motives, and the desire to remain in one's home. I develop and estimate a structural model of retirement savings decisions with realistic risks, housing, and heterogeneity in bequest preferences. I exploit policy changes to the taxation of housing and bequests to separately identify the different motives for holding wealth. Estimates show approximately half of retirees have no bequest motive. House price changes are quantitatively important, with 1/4 of increases passed on to future generations. I use the estimated model to evaluate means-tested programs insuring retirees' LTC expenses. I find exemptions providing marginal liquidity have larger insurance value than fully eliminating LTC expense risk per pound it costs the government.
BASE
Pension schemes have a significant influence on the saving and consumption decisions of households. Similarly, contributions to pension arrangements are substantial expenditures for national governments and also for corporations, depending on the prevailing pension system. Beyond this, pension schemes play an important role in the economy, channelling savings into investments through capital markets. However, demographic factors and the macroeconomic environment (low interest rates, low growth and low productivity) are raising concerns about the sustainability of pension schemes over the long term, in particular for those of a defined benefit type. Their impact on pension schemes and the way to adjust to them have been under the consideration of national and international institutions for some time. In principle, Pillar 1 pension schemes (i.e. those sponsored by the government) would be more affected by demographic factors, whereas the macroeconomic environment would pose a larger challenge to Pillar 2 and 3 pension schemes (i.e. those where the employer and employees contribute to the scheme, and the residual category, respectively). While these vulnerabilities are expected to materialise slowly, they can potentially endanger the sustainability of pension schemes, particularly those operating under a defined benefit structure. The likely outcome of the materialisation of these sources of vulnerabilities implies that, over a long-term horizon, the gap between the income which households expect to receive at retirement and the income which pension schemes are effectively able to pay may become significant. This gap is starting to become visible, in particular for defined benefit occupational pension funds. Actually, for both defined benefit and defined contribution schemes, the macroeconomic environment may lead to effective returns that are lower than expected. In this report, we discuss pension schemes and the related vulnerabilities in terms of their macroeconomic and financial stability impact in the European Union (EU).
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A tighter monetary policy is generally associated with higher real interest rates on deposits and loans, weaker performance of equities and real estate, and slower growth in employment and wages. How does a household's exposure to monetary policy vary with its age? The size and composition of both household income and asset portfolios exhibit large variation over the life cycle in Japanese data. We formulate an overlapping-generations model that reproduces these observations and use it to analyze how household responses to monetary policy shocks vary over the life cycle. Both the signs and the magnitudes of the responses of a household's net worth, disposable income, and consumption depend on its age.
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In: American economic review, Band 111, Heft 3, S. 787-830
ISSN: 1944-7981
We study experimentally when, why, and how people intervene in others' choices. Choice Architects (CAs) construct opportunity sets containing bundles of time-indexed payments for Choosers. CAs frequently prevent impatient choices despite opportunities to provide advice, believing Choosers benefit. They violate common behavioral welfare criteria by removing impatient options even when all payoffs are delayed. CAs intervene not by removing options they wish they could resist when choosing for themselves (mistakes-projective paternalism), but rather as if they seek to align others' choices with their own aspirations (ideals-projective paternalism). Laboratory choices predict subjects' support for actual paternalistic policies. (JEL C92, D12, D15)
In: American economic review, Band 110, Heft 4, S. 1177-1205
ISSN: 1944-7981
This paper documents a large association between individuals' time discounting in incentivized experiments and their positions in the real-life wealth distribution derived from Danish high-quality administrative data for a large sample of middle-aged individuals. The association is stable over time, exists through the wealth distribution and remains large after controlling for education, income profile, school grades, initial wealth, parental wealth, credit constraints, demographics, risk preferences, and additional behavioral parameters. Our results suggest that savings behavior is a driver of the observed association between patience and wealth inequality as predicted by standard savings theory. (JEL C91, D15, D31, E21)
In: American economic review, Band 109, Heft 6, S. 2137-2172
ISSN: 1944-7981
We study a generous program to promote the adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems through subsidies on future electricity production, rather than through upfront investment subsidies. We develop a tractable dynamic model of new technology adoption, also accounting for local market heterogeneity. We identify the discount factor from demand responses to variation that shifts expected future but not current utilities. Despite the massive adoption, we find that households significantly discounted the future benefits from the new technology. This implies that an upfront investment subsidy program would have promoted the technology at a much lower budgetary cost. (JEL C51, D15, Q48, Q58)