Context, Objectives and Entrepreneurship Intervention In the context of labour market issues, unemployment rates constitute, undoubtedly a major concern, especially under an economic and financial crisis situation, such as the currently faced by many European countries, since 2008. Unemployment rates are an important structural indicator, displaying both economic and social dimensions. An increase of unemployment might imply a loss of talent and unique human capital out of the labour force, culminating in social exclusion, disintegration and substantial raise of government expenditures (social benefits and ALMPs). Nowadays, stimulating entrepreneurship through active labour market policies is widely recognized as manner of combating unemployment and improving innovation and job creation. The primary role of the present research is to infer whether a entrepreneurship training contributes to employment, full-employment and self-employment rates of targeted individuals. Therefore, it includes the measurement of 4 main groups of outcomes: 1). Networking and job's offers applications; 2). Employment, self-employment's plans, full-time employment and job seeking strategies; 3). Complementary training and pro-activity 4). Confidence and optimism levels. The scope of analysis was focused on the emerging reality of the Portuguese unemployed people with graduate degrees, despite remaining unemployed for an uncertain length of time and in what extent entrepreneurship training programmes contribute to reduce the unemployment rates among the participants and to engage them on creating their own businesses. Nevertheless, more than merely analysing the impact of training on employment or self-employment likelihoods, this intervention aims at understanding if individuals who benefited by the program change positively their behaviour relative to networking and job offers applications, due precisely to that participation. The acknowledge of the best labour policies to mitigate structural unemployment, to correspond to unemployed needs and characteristics and to enhance a better match between labour's supply and demand is determinant on current days. This necessity, at the moment, is not only applied for low-skilled workers, but also, in an increasing rate, to high-skilled workers. These last ones are in general much less targeted to training programs than the low-skilled individuals. Most of active labour market policies are developed and provided to the most disadvantaged groups who face the greatest barriers and incentives to become employed. Therefore, a research gap in what respects the best labour market policies concerning this particular group of unemployed still remains to explore. European and Portuguese Active Labour Market Policies (ALMP's) The improvement regarding effectiveness of labour market policies in Europe entails the undertake of programmes at an early stage, so that it can prevent the occurrence of long-term unemployment; the need to establish an adequate profile of the participants to infer their specific weaknesses, skill's needs and to allocate them to the most suitable programme, the targeting of wage subsidies might be run at a small-scale basis, and the existence of appropriate incentives for employers to retain workers after the subsidy's expiration. The European Commission defines the different ALMPs into several categories, such as: Labour market services (category 1): job-search assistance; Training (category 2); Employment incentives (category 4): hiring incentives for firms; Supported employment and direct jobs (categories 5&6): target particularly long term unemployed, youth or groups facing problems of inclusion and integration in regular labour market and Start-ups incentives (category 7). The Portuguese institutions that implement and reinforce the labour market policies, with overall responsibility of the Ministry of Solidarity, Labour and Social Affairs are the Institute for the Innovation and Training (Instituto para a Inovação na Formação) and specially the Institute for Employment and Vocational Training (IEFP-Instituto do Emprego e Formação Profissional). The main goal of this organism is to promote the creation and quality of employment and mitigate unemployment spells, through the conduction of ALMPs, namely vocational training. Some of the most relevant active labour market policies involve: Stimulus to employment or employment subsidy, Employment's internships, National Plan of implementation of a young's guarantee, Active youth employment, Youth Investment Program, Youth Boost Program, Active Life Program and Vocational Education and Training (VET). Data and Methodology A randomized field experiment was conducted in order to analyse the causal impact of entrepreneurship training on labour market outcomes of graduate unemployed individuals in a manner as rigorous as possible. This training program, inserted in the program Active Life – Educate and Integrate was implemented through a partnership between Nova School of Business and Economics and Institute for Employment and Vocational Training (IEFP) - one of the main Portuguese institutions promoting active labour market policies and reintegrating the unemployed in labour market. The dataset used in this study is from Batista, C. (2013). One makes use of data on 94 unemployed individuals with higher education from IEFP's database. These data include the main demographic characteristics of project participants, such as name, age, email, personal contacts, current address, degree level, other qualifications or training participation and the main motivation for participating on this project. The intervention was implemented in October and November of 2012. From the 120 individuals of IEFP's initial dataset, 50 were randomly selected to the program, thus composing, the treatment group of those, who received the entrepreneurship training. The eligibility criteria for the participation in this program was based on the requirement that the involved individuals displayed at least one diploma of higher education not intrinsically or directly related to Management or Business issues. This experiment differs from the previous ones conducted on this field, in the sense that evolves exclusively graduate unemployed and the training is focused on entrepreneurial skills' improvement and their repercussion, among other outcomes, on individual's behavioural measures of networking, self-employment and employment probabilities. Main outcomes of the research and study's limitations To estimate the impact of entrepreneurship training, one should compare the outcomes of interest in the treatment and in the control group, with and without the baseline controls and other covariates. Individuals of both groups were followed –up through surveys at 3 and 6 months after the intervention. Due to the fact that only 94 individuals responded to both surveys, one excluded from the initial sample the remaining participants that were just followed up once. The most significant results of this study concerns the impact of training of behavioural measures of networking. Training's participants are significantly more likely to use LinkedIn for providing comments, likes or posts and also for adding connections (after three months of the intervention) or changing profiles (after six months of the intervention). Participants use at least every week the LinkedIn for essentially these purposes. Nonetheless, there was no evidence that the training enabled participants to distinguish more or less suitable job offers of Vida Activa or shared more these offers among them. The results of this experiment suggested that individuals who participated in training are not significantly more likely to become employed or full –time employed when compared to non-participants. There is no evidence that the training influenced substantially job seeking strategies of the beneficiaries compared to non- beneficiaries. There is evidence that the intention to become self-employed is positive but only of short-term and lose significance across time, which is congruent with existing literature. The same conclusion can be drawn from confidence levels' analysis. Confidence levels are no static, are reliable on conjecture indicators and may depend on opportunities to put in practice the new knowledge acquired. Some explanations behind the non-significance of the results on employment were provided, including the eminent economic and financial crisis, the rigidity and segmentation of Portuguese labour market prior to 2012's labour market reform, the learning curves and signalling theories and the skills mismatch present on labour market. For the self-employment results, those might be explained by the perceptions of uncertainty, market information asymmetry or unavailability, credit constraints, lack of financial incentives and risk inherent to the creation of a business as well as its sustainability over time, in particular under economic downturns evidenced on the context of this study. Implications for future research The main implications for future research comprise the insertion of risk aversion and entrepreneur's characteristics measures in order to obtain better results or understanding of other components that interfere on self-employment decisions. Additionally, conducting a qualitative research as a complement to the quantitative one is also important. This qualitative research might include measures of participants' satisfaction and suggestions for program's improvement. Lastly, in order to acquire significant results on employment rates, the classroom training, in which this entrepreneurship training is based, should be complemented with other types of training namely in -company training due to its benefits for future employment likelihood and acquisition of managerial skills and competences, also determinant for self-employment. ; Master [120] en sciences de gestion, Université catholique de Louvain, 2015
Context, Objectives and Entrepreneurship Intervention In the context of labour market issues, unemployment rates constitute, undoubtedly a major concern, especially under an economic and financial crisis situation, such as the currently faced by many European countries, since 2008. Unemployment rates are an important structural indicator, displaying both economic and social dimensions. An increase of unemployment might imply a loss of talent and unique human capital out of the labour force, culminating in social exclusion, disintegration and substantial raise of government expenditures (social benefits and ALMPs). Nowadays, stimulating entrepreneurship through active labour market policies is widely recognized as manner of combating unemployment and improving innovation and job creation. The primary role of the present research is to infer whether a entrepreneurship training contributes to employment, full-employment and self-employment rates of targeted individuals. Therefore, it includes the measurement of 4 main groups of outcomes: 1). Networking and job's offers applications; 2). Employment, self-employment's plans, full-time employment and job seeking strategies; 3). Complementary training and pro-activity 4). Confidence and optimism levels. The scope of analysis was focused on the emerging reality of the Portuguese unemployed people with graduate degrees, despite remaining unemployed for an uncertain length of time and in what extent entrepreneurship training programmes contribute to reduce the unemployment rates among the participants and to engage them on creating their own businesses. Nevertheless, more than merely analysing the impact of training on employment or self-employment likelihoods, this intervention aims at understanding if individuals who benefited by the program change positively their behaviour relative to networking and job offers applications, due precisely to that participation. The acknowledge of the best labour policies to mitigate structural unemployment, to correspond to unemployed needs and characteristics and to enhance a better match between labour's supply and demand is determinant on current days. This necessity, at the moment, is not only applied for low-skilled workers, but also, in an increasing rate, to high-skilled workers. These last ones are in general much less targeted to training programs than the low-skilled individuals. Most of active labour market policies are developed and provided to the most disadvantaged groups who face the greatest barriers and incentives to become employed. Therefore, a research gap in what respects the best labour market policies concerning this particular group of unemployed still remains to explore. European and Portuguese Active Labour Market Policies (ALMP's) The improvement regarding effectiveness of labour market policies in Europe entails the undertake of programmes at an early stage, so that it can prevent the occurrence of long-term unemployment; the need to establish an adequate profile of the participants to infer their specific weaknesses, skill's needs and to allocate them to the most suitable programme, the targeting of wage subsidies might be run at a small-scale basis, and the existence of appropriate incentives for employers to retain workers after the subsidy's expiration. The European Commission defines the different ALMPs into several categories, such as: Labour market services (category 1): job-search assistance; Training (category 2); Employment incentives (category 4): hiring incentives for firms; Supported employment and direct jobs (categories 5&6): target particularly long term unemployed, youth or groups facing problems of inclusion and integration in regular labour market and Start-ups incentives (category 7). The Portuguese institutions that implement and reinforce the labour market policies, with overall responsibility of the Ministry of Solidarity, Labour and Social Affairs are the Institute for the Innovation and Training (Instituto para a Inovação na Formação) and specially the Institute for Employment and Vocational Training (IEFP-Instituto do Emprego e Formação Profissional). The main goal of this organism is to promote the creation and quality of employment and mitigate unemployment spells, through the conduction of ALMPs, namely vocational training. Some of the most relevant active labour market policies involve: Stimulus to employment or employment subsidy, Employment's internships, National Plan of implementation of a young's guarantee, Active youth employment, Youth Investment Program, Youth Boost Program, Active Life Program and Vocational Education and Training (VET). Data and Methodology A randomized field experiment was conducted in order to analyse the causal impact of entrepreneurship training on labour market outcomes of graduate unemployed individuals in a manner as rigorous as possible. This training program, inserted in the program Active Life – Educate and Integrate was implemented through a partnership between Nova School of Business and Economics and Institute for Employment and Vocational Training (IEFP) - one of the main Portuguese institutions promoting active labour market policies and reintegrating the unemployed in labour market. The dataset used in this study is from Batista, C. (2013). One makes use of data on 94 unemployed individuals with higher education from IEFP's database. These data include the main demographic characteristics of project participants, such as name, age, email, personal contacts, current address, degree level, other qualifications or training participation and the main motivation for participating on this project. The intervention was implemented in October and November of 2012. From the 120 individuals of IEFP's initial dataset, 50 were randomly selected to the program, thus composing, the treatment group of those, who received the entrepreneurship training. The eligibility criteria for the participation in this program was based on the requirement that the involved individuals displayed at least one diploma of higher education not intrinsically or directly related to Management or Business issues. This experiment differs from the previous ones conducted on this field, in the sense that evolves exclusively graduate unemployed and the training is focused on entrepreneurial skills' improvement and their repercussion, among other outcomes, on individual's behavioural measures of networking, self-employment and employment probabilities. Main outcomes of the research and study's limitations To estimate the impact of entrepreneurship training, one should compare the outcomes of interest in the treatment and in the control group, with and without the baseline controls and other covariates. Individuals of both groups were followed –up through surveys at 3 and 6 months after the intervention. Due to the fact that only 94 individuals responded to both surveys, one excluded from the initial sample the remaining participants that were just followed up once. The most significant results of this study concerns the impact of training of behavioural measures of networking. Training's participants are significantly more likely to use LinkedIn for providing comments, likes or posts and also for adding connections (after three months of the intervention) or changing profiles (after six months of the intervention). Participants use at least every week the LinkedIn for essentially these purposes. Nonetheless, there was no evidence that the training enabled participants to distinguish more or less suitable job offers of Vida Activa or shared more these offers among them. The results of this experiment suggested that individuals who participated in training are not significantly more likely to become employed or full –time employed when compared to non-participants. There is no evidence that the training influenced substantially job seeking strategies of the beneficiaries compared to non- beneficiaries. There is evidence that the intention to become self-employed is positive but only of short-term and lose significance across time, which is congruent with existing literature. The same conclusion can be drawn from confidence levels' analysis. Confidence levels are no static, are reliable on conjecture indicators and may depend on opportunities to put in practice the new knowledge acquired. Some explanations behind the non-significance of the results on employment were provided, including the eminent economic and financial crisis, the rigidity and segmentation of Portuguese labour market prior to 2012's labour market reform, the learning curves and signalling theories and the skills mismatch present on labour market. For the self-employment results, those might be explained by the perceptions of uncertainty, market information asymmetry or unavailability, credit constraints, lack of financial incentives and risk inherent to the creation of a business as well as its sustainability over time, in particular under economic downturns evidenced on the context of this study. Implications for future research The main implications for future research comprise the insertion of risk aversion and entrepreneur's characteristics measures in order to obtain better results or understanding of other components that interfere on self-employment decisions. Additionally, conducting a qualitative research as a complement to the quantitative one is also important. This qualitative research might include measures of participants' satisfaction and suggestions for program's improvement. Lastly, in order to acquire significant results on employment rates, the classroom training, in which this entrepreneurship training is based, should be complemented with other types of training namely in -company training due to its benefits for future employment likelihood and acquisition of managerial skills and competences, also determinant for self-employment. ; Master [120] en sciences de gestion, Université catholique de Louvain, 2015
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. Acknowledgements: We especially thank all volunteers who participated in our study. This study made use of data generated by the 'Genome of the Netherlands' project, which is funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (grant no. 184021007). The data were made available as a Rainbow Project of BBMRI-NL. Samples were contributed by LifeLines (http://lifelines.nl/lifelines-research/general), the Leiden Longevity Study (http://www.healthy-ageing.nl; http://www.langleven.net), the Netherlands Twin Registry (NTR: http://www.tweelingenregister.org), the Rotterdam studies (http://www.erasmus-epidemiology.nl/rotterdamstudy) and the Genetic Research in Isolated Populations programme (http://www.epib.nl/research/geneticepi/research.html#gip). The sequencing was carried out in collaboration with the Beijing Institute for Genomics (BGI). Cardiovascular Health Study: This CHS research was supported by NHLBI contracts HHSN268201200036C, HHSN268200800007C, HHSN268200960009C, N01HC55222, N01HC85079, N01HC85080, N01HC85081, N01HC85082, N01HC85083, N01HC85086; and NHLBI grants HL080295, HL087652, HL105756 and HL103612 with additional contribution from the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS). Additional support was provided through AG023629 from the National Institute on Aging (NIA). A full list of CHS investigators and institutions can be found at http://www.chs-nhlbi.org/pi.htm. The CROATIA cohorts would like to acknowledge the invaluable contributions of the recruitment teams in Vis, Korcula and Split (including those from the Institute of Anthropological Research in Zagreb and the Croatian Centre for Global Health at the University of Split), the administrative teams in Croatia and Edinburgh and the people of Vis, Korcula and Split. SNP genotyping was performed at the Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility in Edinburgh for CROATIA-Vis, by Helmholtz Zentrum München, GmbH, Neuherberg, Germany for CROATIA-Korcula and by AROS Applied Biotechnology, Aarhus, Denmark for CROATIA-Split. They would also like to thank Jared O'Connell for performing the pre-phasing for all cohorts before imputation. The ERF study as a part of EuroSPAN (European Special Populations Research Network) was supported by European Commission FP-6 STRP grant number 018947 (LSHG-CT-2006-01947) and also received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/grant agreement HEALTH-F4-2007-201413 by the European Commission under the programme 'Quality of Life and Management of the Living Resources' of 5th Framework Programme (no. QLG2-CT-2002-01254). High-throughput analysis of the ERF data was supported by joint grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (NWO-RFBR 047.017.043). This research was financially supported by BBMRI-NL, a Research Infrastructure financed by the Dutch government (NWO 184.021.007). Statistical analyses for the ERF study were carried out on the Genetic Cluster Computer (http://www.geneticcluster.org), which is financially supported by the Netherlands Scientific Organization (NWO 480-05-003 PI: Posthuma) along with a supplement from the Dutch Brain Foundation and the VU University Amsterdam. We are grateful to all study participants and their relatives, general practitioners and neurologists for their contributions and to P. Veraart for her help in genealogy, J. Vergeer for the supervision of the laboratory work and P. Snijders for his help in data collection. The FamHS is funded by a NHLBI grant 5R01HL08770003, and NIDDK grants 5R01DK06833603 and 5R01DK07568102. The Framingham Heart Study SHARe Project for GWAS scan was supported by the NHLBI Framingham Heart Study (Contract No. N01-HC-25195) and its contract with Affymetrix Inc for genotyping services (Contract No. N02-HL-6-4278). DNA isolation and biochemistry were partly supported by NHLBI HL-54776. A portion of this research utilized the Linux Cluster for Genetic Analysis (LinGA-II) funded by the Robert Dawson Evans Endowment of the Department of Medicine at the Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Medical Center. We are grateful to Han Chen for conducting the 1000G imputation. The Family Heart Study was supported by the by grants R01-HL-087700 and R01-HL-088215 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI). We would like to acknowledge the invaluable contributions of the families who took part in the Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study, the general practitioners and Scottish School of Primary Care for their help in recruiting them, and the whole Generation Scotland team, which includes academic researchers, IT staff, laboratory technicians, statisticians and research managers. SNP genotyping was performed at the Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility in Edinburgh. GS:SFHS is funded by the Scottish Executive Health Department, Chief Scientist Office, grant number CZD/16/6. SNP genotyping was funded by the Medical Research Council, United Kingdom. We wish to acknowledge the services of the LifeLines Cohort Study, the contributing research centres delivering data to LifeLines and all the study participants. MESA Whites and the MESA SHARe project are conducted and supported by contracts N01-HC-95159 through N01-HC-95169 and RR-024156 from the NHLBI. Funding for MESA SHARe genotyping was provided by NHLBI Contract N02.HL.6.4278. MESA Family is conducted and supported in collaboration with MESA investigators; support is provided by grants and contracts R01HL071051, R01HL071205, R01HL071250, R01HL071251, R01HL071252, R01HL071258 and R01HL071259. We thank the participants of the MESA study, the Coordinating Center, MESA investigators and study staff for their valuable contributions. A full list of participating MESA investigators and institutions can be found at http://www.mesa-nhlbi.org. Netherland Twin Register (NTR) and Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA): Funding was obtained from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and MagW/ZonMW grants Middelgroot-911-09-032, Spinozapremie 56-464-14192, Geestkracht programme of the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (Zon-MW, grant number 10-000-1002), Center for Medical Systems Biology (CSMB, NWO Genomics), NBIC/BioAssist/RK(2008.024), Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL, 184.021.007), VU University's Institute for Health and Care Research (EMGO+) and Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam (NCA); the European Science Foundation (ESF, EU/QLRT-2001-01254), the European Community's Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013), ENGAGE (HEALTH-F4-2007-201413); the European Science Council (ERC Advanced, 230374); and the European Research Council (ERC-284167). Part of the genotyping and analyses were funded by the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06), the Avera Institute, Sioux Falls, South Dakota (USA) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH R01 HD042157-01A1, MH081802, Grand Opportunity grants 1RC2 MH089951 and 1RC2 MH089995). PREVEND genetics is supported by the Dutch Kidney Foundation (Grant E033), the EU project grant GENECURE (FP-6 LSHM CT 2006 037697), the National Institutes of Health (grant 2R01LM010098), The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (NWO-Groot grant 175.010.2007.006, NWO VENI grant 916.761.70, ZonMw grant 90.700.441) and the Dutch Inter University Cardiology Institute Netherlands (ICIN). The PROSPER study was supported by an investigator-initiated grant obtained from Bristol-Myers Squibb. J.W.J is an Established Clinical Investigator of the Netherlands Heart Foundation (grant 2001 D 032). Genotyping was supported by the seventh framework programme of the European commission (grant 223004) and by the Netherlands Genomics Initiative (Netherlands Consortium for Healthy Aging grant 050-060-810). The Rotterdam Study is funded by Erasmus Medical Center and Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Netherlands Organization for the Health Research and Development (ZonMw), the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly (RIDE), the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, the Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports, the European Commission (DG XII) and the Municipality of Rotterdam. We are grateful to the study participants, the staff from the Rotterdam Study and the participating general practitioners and pharmacists. The generation and management of GWAS genotype data for the Rotterdam Study is supported by the Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research NWO Investments (nr. 175.010.2005.011, 911-03-012). This study is funded by the Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly (014-93-015; RIDE2), the Netherlands Genomics Initiative (NGI)/Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) project no. 050-060-810. We thank Pascal Arp, Mila Jhamai, Marijn Verkerk, Lizbeth Herrera and Marjolein Peters for their help in creating the GWAS database. ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF
Hunger ist nach wie vor ein weit verbreitetes Problem. Nach der jüngsten Schätzung der FAO hungern weltweit noch immer über 800 Mio. Menschen. Prognosen gehen davon aus, dass die Agrarproduktion bis 2050 verdoppelt werden muss, um der steigenden Nachfrage nach Agrarprodukten durch Bevölkerungswachstum, Bioenergieproduktion und sich verändernde Ernährungsgewohnheiten zu begegnen. Unter vielen Möglichkeiten, das Welternährungsproblem zu beschreiben, wird in dieser Dissertation das Konzept der Ernährungssicherheit nach der Definition der FAO herangezogen. Ernährungssicherheit umfasst als wichtigste Aspekte die Verfügbarkeit von Nahrungsmitteln und den ökonomischen Zugang zu Nahrungsmitteln. Nahrungsmittelverfügbarkeit ist in erster Linie von einer global ausreichenden Produktion abhängig, der Zugang zu Nahrung von der Kaufkraft der Haushalte. Die Kaufkraft wird sowohl durch das Einkommen wie auch die Agrarpreise beeinflusst. Die Nahrungsmittelverfügbarkeit kann vor allem durch Ertragssteigerungen erhöht werden. Sollen die Ertragssteigerungen ressourcenschonend erfolgen, muss die Produktivität der Agrarproduktion bezogen auf alle Produktionsfaktoren inkl. Umweltgütern steigen. Nur durch technische und organisatorische Innovation kann dies realisiert werden. Ertragssteigerungen in Entwicklungsländern erhöhen gleichzeitig die Einkommen von potenziell von Hunger Betroffenen. Eine Begrenzung der Nachfrage nach Agrargütern kann global in erster Linie in den Bereichen Bioenergie und Konsum tierischer Produkte erfolgen. Simulationen können helfen, den Einfluss einzelner Faktoren der globalen Nachfrage und des Angebots nach Agrarrohstoffen und -produkten auf die Welternährungslage genauer abzuschätzen. Ein Großteil der Simulationen in der Literatur kommt mithilfe von partiellen oder allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodellen zu Aussagen über gehandelte Mengen und Preise oder Wohlfahrtseffekte. In dieser Arbeit wird ein einfaches partielles Gleichgewichtsmodell für den Weltmarkt für Biotreibstoffe, Fleisch und Getreide entwickelt und mit der Methode der FAO zur Schätzung der Zahl der Hungernden gekoppelt. Dies ermöglicht die Abschätzung des Einflusses verschiedener Szenarien auf die Zahl der Hungernden. Für das Referenzjahr 2011 werden Szenarien alternativer Nachfrage nach Fleisch und Biotreibstoffen simuliert, ebenso wie ein Szenario alternativer landwirtschaftlicher Produktivität in der Europäischen Union. Die Schätzungen ergeben einen signifikanten Einfluss der simulierten Nachfrage- und Angebotsverschiebungen. Im Vergleich mit dem Status Quo führt eine Reduktion des Fleischkonsums in den OECD-Ländern um 50% zu einer Reduktion der Zahl der Hungernden um 5%. Eine ii Flächenproduktivität im Getreideanbau in der EU auf dem Niveau von 1980 steigert die Zahl der Hungernden um mehr als 5%, ein Anstieg der Biotreibstoffquote in der OECD auf 10% erhöht die Zahl der Hungernden gar um 10%. Die Durchsetzung geeigneter politischer Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der Welternährungslage kann durch eine breite öffentliche Unterstützung beschleunigt oder erst ermöglicht werden. Über die öffentliche Meinung zu Fragen der Welternährung in Deutschland existieren bisher keine expliziten Studien. In den Themenbereichen landwirtschaftliche Produktion und Nahrungsmittelkonsum stellt das Thema Welternährung nur einen Aspekt dar, der neben Fragen nach z.B. der Lebensmittelsicherheit und Gesundheit sowie den Auswirkungen von Agrarproduktion auf Landschaft und Umwelt steht. Hier werden Ergebnisse einer Online-Befragung zum Thema Welternährung präsentiert, die im März 2012 mit einer repräsentativen Stichprobe 1.200 deutscher Internetnutzer durchgeführt wurde. Die Befragung beinhaltete im Wesentlichen die Bewertung der Wirkung verschiedener potenzieller Ursachen der weltweiten Unterernährung, sowie Maßnahmen und Entwicklungen zu ihrer Lösung. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das Thema Welthunger in erster Linie mit Merkmalen akuter (Hunger-) Krisen in Verbindung gebracht wird. Die vielversprechendsten Lösungsmaßnahmen sind in den Augen der Befragten der Ausbau des Fairen Handels, Absatzmärkte für Kleinbauern sowie ein Lebensmittelspekulationsverbot. Der intensiven Landwirtschaft in der Welt wie auch in Europa sowie insbesondere der Grünen Gentechnik wird kein Potenzial zur Lösung des Problems zugesprochen. Die Antwortmuster lassen auf die Präsenz eines Halo-Effekts mit einer Übertragung unterstellter negativer Umweltwirkungen auf das Thema Welternährung schließen. Die Grüne Gentechnik ist eine Agrartechnologie, die potenziell zur Angebotsausweitung von Agrarprodukten genauso beitragen kann wie zu einer ressourcenschonenderen Landwirtschaft. Bisherige Anwendungen, hauptsächlich Herbizidtoleranz sowie Insektenresistenz, haben u.a. zu einer Steigerung der effektiven Erträge, einer Einsparung von Insektiziden und einer Steigerung der Profite vor allem im Baumwollanbau beigetragen. Trotz zahlreicher Belege besteht über die Auswirkungen von gentechnisch veränderten (GV) Nutzpflanzen eine anhaltende Kontroverse. Ein Großteil der europäischen Bevölkerung lehnt den Anbau ebenso ab wie einen Verzehr von Produkten aus GV-Pflanzen. Unterstellte sozio-ökonomische Auswirkungen oder Auswirkungen auf die Welternährung sind nur zwei Determinanten von vielen, die zu den Einstellungen zur Grünen Gentechnik beitragen. Zur Konsolidierung des Wissens im Bereich agronomischer sowie sozio-ökonomischer Auswirkungen von GV-Pflanzen wurde eine Meta-Analyse durchgeführt. In wissenschaftlichen Datenbanken wurden iii 147 Primärstudien identifiziert, die für die Meta-Analyse verwendet wurden. Die Analyse beschränkt sich auf gentechnisch veränderte Sojabohnen, Mais und Baumwolle. Als mittlere Effekte des Anbaus von GV-Pflanzen ergibt die Meta-Analyse eine Steigerung des Ertrages um 22%, eine Reduktion der Menge der angewendeten Pflanzenschutzmittel um 37% und eine Steigerung der Profite der Bauern um 68%. Die Höhe der Effekte hängt stark von verschiedenen Faktoren ab. Die Effekte sind für alle drei genannten Variablen in Entwicklungsländern betragsmäßig größer als in Industrieländern. Auch sind die Effekte des Anbaus von GV-Pflanzen bei Erträgen und beim Pflanzenschutzmitteleinsatz betragsmäßig höher für insektenresistente Pflanzen als bei solchen mit Herbizidtoleranz. Aus den in der Arbeit gewonnenen Erkenntnissen kann geschlussfolgert werden, dass sowohl das Nahrungsmittelangebot gesteigert als auch die Nachfrage begrenzt werden sollte. Dies verlangt eine standortangepasste Ausnutzung vorhandener und die Entwicklung neuer Technologien. Auch die Gentechnik kann einen Beitrag leisten. Der Kleinbauernsektor muss vordringlich gefördert werden. Zur Begrenzung der Nachfrage können neben der Politik, welche vor allem die Biotreibstoffnachfrage beeinflussen kann, auch Konsumenten durch Verzicht auf tierische Produkte beitragen. Dies wie auch die Durchführung effektiver politischer Maßnahmen sind auf eine unverzerrte Sichtweise der Öffentlichkeit auf das Thema Welternährung angewiesen. Dazu muss das Thema in Wissenschaftskommunikation und Bildung stärker thematisiert werden. ; Hunger is still a widespread problem. According to newest estimates of the FAO, more than 800 million people are not able to fulfil their basic dietary needs. Projections estimate that the global agricultural production will have to be doubled by 2050 to meet the growing demand driven by population growth, bioenergy, and changing dietary habits. Among many possible ways to describe the world hunger problem we choose the concept of food security according to the FAO. Food security is comprised of four pillars, the two first of which are food availability and the economic access to food. Food availability is mainly dependent on a sufficient global agricultural production; the access to food depends on the purchasing power of the households. The main determinants of purchasing power, in turn, are the household income as well as agricultural prices. Food availability can mainly be increased through an increase in agricultural yields. In order for the yield increases to be resource conserving, the productivity of all production factors including environmental resources must be enhanced. This can only be achieved through technical and organizational innovation. Yield gains in developing countries simultaneously increase the incomes of small scale farmers who are potentially in danger of undernutrition. A limitation to global demand for agricultural commodities can foremost be achieved in the domain of bioenergy and animal products. Simulations are a valid tool to assess the influence of certain factors of global demand and supply of agricultural commodities. In large parts, simulations use computer generated total or partial equilibrium models to assess shifts in quantities traded, prices, or welfare. In this dissertation, we develop a simple partial equilibrium model for the world market for biofuels, meat, and grains. This model is then connected to the FAO method for the estimation of the prevalence of undernutrition. This enables us to estimate the impact of different scenarios on the number of undernourished people in the world. For the year 2011, several scenarios with an alternative demand for meat or biofuels are simulated as well as one scenario with an alternative agricultural productivity in the European Union. The estimations show a significant effect of the simulated shifts in demand and supply. In comparison with the status quo, an OECD-wide reduction in meat consumption leads to a reduction in the number of undernourished people by 5%. A simulated land productivity in grain production in the EU at the level of 1980 leads to an increase in the number of undernourished people by 10%. In order for appropriate policies concerning the world food situation to be put in place, wide public support will be necessary. So far there exists no evidence about the public opinion concerning the problem of world hunger. In the areas of agriculture and food consumption, the issue of world food v security is only one side aspect within an array of issues as food safety and health, as well as the impacts of agriculture on landscapes and the environment. In this dissertation we present the results of an online survey concerning the issue of world hunger. The survey was carried out with a representative sample of 1,200 German internet users in March 2012. In the main parts of the survey, respondents were asked to rate different potential causes and remedies of the world hunger problem. The results show that the world hunger is mainly associated with attributes of famines and acute crises. In the view of the respondents, the most promising remedies to world hunger are an increase of Fair Trade, the creation of market outlets for smallholder farmers in developing countries, and the interdiction of speculation on agricultural commodities. Intensive agriculture in the world and also in Europe is not rated having any potential to improve world food security; the same holds true for GM (Genetically Modified) crops. The patterns of the responses suggest that there might be a halo effect whereby assumed negative consequences of intensive agriculture and genetic engineering are transmitted to the evaluation with respect to the issue of world hunger. Genetic engineering in agriculture is a technology that can potentially help increase agricultural production and also have resource-conserving effects. Current applications, mainly insect resistance and herbicide tolerance have, among others, led to an increase in effective yields, a reduction in the application of insecticides, and an increase in farmers' profits. Despite evidence from numerous studies there is still a high level of controversy regarding the impacts of GM crops. Large parts of the European public oppose both the cultivation of GM crops and consumption of GM food. Assumed socio-economic impacts or impacts on food security are only two minor aspects of many determinants of the attitude towards this technology. To consolidate the evidence on agronomic and economic impacts for farmers, we conducted a meta-analysis. Through keyword search in scientific databases, 147 studies were identified and used in the analysis. The meta-study is limited to results on the most widespread GM crops worldwide: soybeans, maize, and cotton. We estimate mean effect sizes of GM crop cultivation which are an increase in yield by 22%, a reduction in pesticide quantity by 37% on average, and an increase in farmer profits by 68%. The magnitude of the effects is determined by various factors. For all three variables named above, the impact of GM crop cultivation is larger in developing than in developed countries. Yield effects as well as impacts of GM crops on pesticide quantity are relatively larger for insect resistant crops than for herbicide tolerant crops.
The paper presented here is the country research and has an analytical character concerning a regional aspect of the public procurement system in Belarus. Stages of the public procurements system's formation and its legislative base and the development of the electronicization of purchases are considered. The public procurement system at the sub- national level is analyzed and weak points are emphasized. Corruption aspects and ways of their minimization in the public procurement activity are showed. Debatable issues and ways of procurement activity improvement in Belarus regions are presented. The methodology of research is based on the analysis of a series of data on public procurements in the regions of Belarus, including budgetary expenditures on public procurement in the local governments of the Belarus regions and the e-auctions procurement at the Universal Commodity Exchange. Statistical data for analysis was obtained from official sources, such as the State Statistics Committees, Ministry of Finance, Open Joint Stock Company (OJSC) Belarusian Universal Commodity Exchange, and on-line databases of analytical centres working in this field, etc. ; Представленная статья является страновым исследованием и имеет аналитический характер. В ней затронут региональный аспект системы общественных закупок в Беларуси. Методология исследования базируется на анализе серии данных по публичным закупкам в регионах Беларуси, включая бюджетные расходы на закупки в местных органах власти, а также на закупки по электронным аукционам на Белорусской универсальной товарной бирже. Статистические данные в этой статье получены из официальных источников, таких как государственный Комитет по статистике, Министерство финансов, ОАО Белорусская универсальная товарная биржа, а также базы данных аналитических интерент-центров, работающих в этой сфере, и т.д. Публичные закупки являются очень большой и важной темой в системе администрирования Республике Беларусь. Анализ закупочной деятельности на уровне поднациональных правительств показал, что в системе закупок существует серьезный методологический недостаток. Публичные закупки в Беларуси рассматриваются, как самостоятельная тема вне контекста управленческих задач, и регулируются отдельно, вне специфики и задач регионального и местного управления. В свою очередь региональное и местное управление регулируется отдельно, вне специфики и задач публичных закупок. Между ними нет существенных взаимосвязей. Проблема заключается в том, не определено место публичных закупок в системе регионального и местного управления. Единственной взаимосвязью между этими двумя направлениями является то, что госзакупки осуществляются за счет средств центрального и местного бюджетов и внебюджетных фондов. Отсутствие серьезных взаимосвязей между системой закупок и региональным и местным управлением вызвано отчасти тем, что в Беларуси нет четко закрепленных расходных полномочий и функций в поднациональных правительствах. Существующие функции достаточно размыты и законодательно не закреплены. Это позволяет, например, осуществлять расходы по закупкам вышестоящих правительств вместо нижестоящих, и даже наоборот. Другой причиной отсутствия взаимосвязей между этими направлениями является нежелание властей создавать специфику для региональных и муниципальных закупок, аргументируя это необходимостью универсализации и унификации закупочной деятельности, а также наличием исключительно государственного управления на всех уровнях в Беларуси. Между тем, такая региональная и муниципальная специфика закупок и ее механизмы должны иметь право на существование. Острыми дискуссионными вопросами остаются проблемы прозрачности, подотчетности и оценки результативности публичных закупок местными правительствами, местным сообществом, средствами массовой информации, гражданами. Создание и функционирование сайтов по размещению закупок является важ- ным шагом в деле повышения уровня их прозрачности, но далеко недостаточным с позиций подотчетности и оценки эффективности проведенных закупок. Так информация о публичных закупках и акты законодательства об общественных закупках размещаются в открытом доступе на официальном сайте. К информации о публичных закупках относятся годовые планы государственных закупок, приглашения к участию в процедурах закупок, документы, представляемые участнику для подготовки предложения на участие в открытом конкурсе, электронном аукционе, сообщения о результатах процедур публичных закупок, сведения о договорах, определяемые советом министров Республики Беларусь, список поставщиков (подрядчиков и исполнителей), временно не допускаемых к участию в процедурах публичных закупок, а также изменения и дополнения к ним, протоколы заседаний комиссий по вопросам открытия предложений, отклонения предложений и подведения итогов процедуры публичной закупки в случае проведения открытых конкурсов и электронных аукционов. Сообщение о результате процедуры государственной закупки заказчик размещает в открытом доступе на официальном сайте, а в случае проведения электронного аукциона – на электронной торговой площадке. Вместе с тем, на официальном сайте не публикуются контракты, заключенные в результате проведения процедур публичных закупок. Как следствие общественность и участники торгов не имеют возможности проследить и проконтролировать процедуру публичной закупки от размещения приглашения до заключения контракта. Статистика официального сайта публичных закупок в Беларуси показывает, что сообщения о результатах процедур закупок размещается только в половине случаев, что является прямым нарушением действующего законодательства. Это свидетельствует о том, что уполномоченный орган по государственным закупкам, каким является Министерство торговли, не справляется с контролем всех процедур государственных закупок, тогда как эта проблема могла бы быть решена с помощью простых программных средств. Таким образом, можно констатировать, что информация о проведении закупок не полна и не достаточно легко доступна. На наш взгляд, сообщение о результатах процедуры публичных закупок должно публиковаться на официальном сайте при проведении всех видов процедур закупок, кроме тех случаев, когда сведения о государственных закупках составляют государственные секреты. Более того, сообщение о результате процедуры закупки должно включать не только цену заключенного контракта, но и полное тендерное предложение каждого участника торгов вместе с критериями оценки предложений и обоснованием выбора победителя конкурсной комиссией. Необходимо также обеспечить видимость содержания договоров, заключенных в результате проведения процедур публичных закупок. В данном реестре должен публиковаться на официальном сайте полный текст договора со всеми дополнениями и спецификациями, а до официальной публикации договор должен считаться недействительным. В целях повышения уровня прозрачности и снижения уровня коррупционных рисков в системе закупок необходимо шире внедрять электронные аукционы. Такой вид конкурсной системы государственных закупок должен в перспективе заменить все другие традиционные виды закупок и стать доминирующим в закупочной деятельности. Одним из преимуществ электронного аукциона является возможности просмотра всех процедур, начиная от объявления предложения на закупку до исполнения договоров поставщиками. Между тем на практике, как заказчики, так и поставщики неохотно идут на публичные закупки через электронный аукцион, предпочитая традиционные закупки, поскольку при этом сохраняются возможности сведения закупок к неконкурентной форме закупок из одного источника. Тем самым это способствует существованию коррупциогенного поля в закупочной деятельности. Электронные аукционы, наоборот, препятствуют стремлениям поставщика и покупателя свести закупки к неконкурентным торгам из одного источника. С этих позиций это снижает коррупционные риски. В перспективе необходимо также доработать электронные аукционы, дополнительно включив туда процедуры предквалификацонного отбора поставщиков услуг. Серьезную озабоченность вызывает отсутствие контроля и мониторинга за публичными закупками со стороны негосударственных организаций, которые могли бы защищать общественные интересы. Это необходимо вложить в специальную антикоррупционную программу в сфере публичных закупок, которая должна быть разработана Министерством торговли, и которая к настоящему времени отсутствует. Не менее важным дискуссионным вопросом выступает отмена существующей дискриминации в отношении иностранных поставщиков и подрядчиков. Как известно, новый Закон о закупках предусматривает введение национального режима в отношении товаров (работ, услуг) иностранного происхождения и поставщиков (подрядчиков, исполнителей), предлагающих такие товары (работы, услуги), в случае, если аналогичный режим установлен иностранным государством или группой иностранных государств. На наш взгляд, такая мера значительно снижает конкурентную среду и урезает равные возможности иностранных компаний в качестве поставщиков. Привлечение международных фирм и компаний к участию в процедурах публичных закупок может не только усилить конкуренцию в закупочной деятельности, сэкономив значительные бюджетные средства, но и в существенной степени снизить коррупционные риски в общественном секторе экономики, где осуществляются закупки на крупные суммы. В этой связи необходимо исключить дискриминационные меры, предусмотренные в действующем законодательстве, в отношении иностранных товаров и компаний, чтобы обеспечить равные возможности для всех участников торгов. Проведенное исследование показывает, что Беларусь еще далека от достижения развитых форм и методов публичных закупок. Несмотря на внедрение в практику в последние годы новых форм и методов закупок, соответствующих мировой практике, степень централизации публичных закупок остается очень высокой. Публичные закупки на региональном уровне остаются связанными в позиции их зависимости от центра и его органов. Степень децентрализации, поэтому в системе публичных закупок, является очень низкой. Состояние публичных закупок в целом зеркально отражают существующую ситуацию в сфере децентрализации управления на локальном уровне. Дальнейшая эволюция публичных закупок в Беларуси определенно потребует углубления и улучшения их законодательной базы, которая в настоящее время очень запутана и сложна для понимания. Ясно, что законодательная база должна быть пересмотрена и реформирована в направлении создания определенной специфики публичных закупок на региональном и местном уровнях, ликвидации дискриминации участников закупок из стран Европейского Союза и других зарубежных участников. Предстоит предпринять ряд важных антикоррупционных мер в закупочной деятельности. В этой области необходимо создать механизм, отторгающий интересы участников в неконкурентных процедурах торгов, одной из которых выступают закупки из одного источника. Одновременно следует стимулировать участие покупателей и продавцов в электронных аукционах, обеспечивающих прозрачность и подотчетность в публичных закупках. Очевидно, что следует создать специальный закупочный механизм для местного и регионального самоуправления, который должен быть достаточно децентрализованным. Необходимо предоставить больше прав местным и региональным властям в организации и упрощении закупочных процедур, ликвидировать многоступенчатость в принятии решений по закупкам местных правительств, что значительно сократит бюрократические процедуры в закупочной деятельности.
Entre el 11 y el 19 de marzo pasado Mohamed Merah, un criminal autoidentificado como un jihadista vinculado con Al Qaeda asesinó a 3 militares y 4 miembros de una escuela judía en Francia, tres de ellos niños. Conociendo las dificultades que supone el análisis de un acto que a prori podría ser calificado de irracional, intentaremos abordar a partir de este hecho algunos conceptos inherentes al estudio de una de las amenazas a la seguridad más importantes de nuestra época: el terrorismo. A pesar de que los actos terroristas suelen ser fácilmente identificables y podríamos citar rápidamente muchas organizaciones que practican o practicaron el terrorismo, su definición puede suponer un desafío y existe poco consenso en la academia en este sentido: Schmid y Jongman (1) identificaron 22 conceptos diferentes que son incluidos por analistas en diferentes proporciones en sus definiciones de terrorismo. Según Rapin (2), el hecho de calificar al terrorismo como "aquello que produce terror" además de ser tautológico supone dos problemas fundamentales. En primer lugar, la falta de evidencia empírica que demuestre que los actos calificados como terroristas han causado terror en sus espectadores: de hecho, estudios indican que el terrorismo causa desórdenes psicológicos en una proporción mínima de las poblaciones afectadas y en formas que distan de poder ser calificados de "terror" (según lo define la psicología), y la resiliencia (la capacidad de superar estos acontecimientos sin secuelas importantes) ha sido mucho más frecuentes (3). En segundo lugar, es necesario notar que los actos terroristas no buscan crear terror en los tomadores de decisiones sino que, por el contrario, buscan que estos respondan de forma racional ante sus amenazas, midiendo los costos y beneficios que pueden suponer sus decisiones. La siguiente definición mínima de terrorismo, a pesar de haber recibido críticas por su ambigüedad y por la posibilidad de englobar en ella otros crímenes no terroristas, pueda sernos útil para introducirnos en una conceptualización un poco más exacta del tema, a través del análisis de sus componentes: "Terrorism is a politically motivatedtactic involving the threat or use of force or violence in which the pursuit of publicityplays a significant role" (4) Lo primero que se desprende de estadefinición, y que no es un detalle menor, es que el terrorismo es un táctica, es decir, un medio utilizado para alcanza ciertos fines: "Groups who want to dramatize a cause, to demoralize the government, to gain popular support, to provoke regime violence, to inspire followers, or to dominate a wider resistance movement, who are weak vis-a-vis the regime, and who are impatient to act, often find terrorism a reasonable choice". (5) Es importante entender esto para no cometer el error de creer que existen organizaciones o personas inherentemente terroristas: el terrorismo es una táctica que algunas agrupaciones consideran efectivas para el logro de sus objetivos, no es un fin en sí mismo. Entender esto será también esencial para combatirlo. El siguiente punto que analizaremos será la naturaleza política del fenómeno en cuestión. A pesar de que a partir de los años noventa y principalmente luego de los atentados del 11 de setiembre muchos autores comenzaron a hablar acerca de un "nuevo terrorismo", que sería identificable entre otras cosas por la persecución de fines religiosos, muchos trabajos concluyen que esto no es tan exacto y puede que la religión tenga un uso principalmente instrumental por parte algunos grupos que utilizan el terrorismo buscado cohesionar a sus miembros y obtener cierta legitimidad. (6) Con respecto a Al Qaeda, es revelador notar que a pesar de que la organización suele ser identificada como una agrupación terrorista de tipo religiosa, sus diferentes facciones ubicadas en distintas partes del mundo tienen objetivos políticos específicos para sus zonas. Por último, es menester mencionar al papel fundamental que juega la propaganda en la estrategia terrorista. El papel que juega la propaganda puede ser rápidamente comprendido a partir del esquema que utiliza Rapin para definir al terrorismo. Según el autor, el terrorismo puede ser caracterizado por la utilización de la violencia contra un objetivo (direct target), con el fin de enviar un mensaje hacia otro actor (indirect target), que puede ser las autoridades públicas o la población civil: "terrorism is a means of communication, albeit a cruel one, and its medium (violence) transmits messages intended to pressure its addressee" (7) Para ser efectivos, lo actos de terrorismo necesitan de su difusión: no resulta nada extraño que Merah haya grabado sus atentados con el fin de difundirlos luego en Internet: sus víctimas jugarían el rol de palomas mensajeras. Uno de los asuntos más controversiales con respecto al terrorismo y que suele salir a flote cada vez que un acontecimiento como éste vuelve a ser noticia son las "causas del terrorismo". Durante mucho tiempo, se creyó que era posible encontrar condiciones que facilitaban la aparición del fenómeno, con la esperanza de una vez identificadas dichas raíces estructurales, poder atacarlas directamente para así evitar la germinación de nuevos terroristas. Seguramente, los factores más frecuentemente asociados con el terrorismo han sido la pobreza y la falta de educación. Sin embargo, numerosos estudios han demostrado que dicho correlación no se sostiene en la realidad y la frecuente asociación entre pobreza y falta de educación con el terrorismo está fundamentada en el sentido común más que en estudios científicos. (8) De hecho, debido a la diversidad de escenarios y contextos en los que han surgido organizaciones terroristas, parece ser difícil que la cuestión de las "causas del terrorismo" pueda tener una respuesta integradora. En cambio, las últimas investigaciones han virado hacia el entendimiento de los procesos de radicalización violenta, una perspectiva que pretende ya no intentar contestar la pregunta"¿cuáles son las causas del terrorismo?" sino "¿Cómo es el proceso que lleva a un grupo o individuo a adoptar la violencia?". Uno de las explicaciones más difundidas (entre otras cosas porque fue desarrollado para el FBI) es el modelo de 4 etapas de Borum. (9) Según el autor, el proceso de radicalización violenta comienza con la identificación de una situación que no está bien, que luego es caracterizada de injusta. El tercer paso consiste en la atribución de la culpa de dicha injusticia a un grupo en particular que será, en última instancia, identificado como "el mal", deshumanizándolo y dando lugar a la reacción violenta. (10) A pesar de que la mayoría de los analistas consideran que Al Qaeda se encuentra sumamente debilitada como organización, la posibilidad de que desde el seno de las ciudadanías occidentales surjan amenazas a la seguridad parecen no haber cedido. La posibilidad de que aparezcan lobos solitarios (individuos auto-radicalizados y que actúan por fuera de cualquier organización aunque se sientan identificados con alguna de ellas) parece ser hoy una de las mayores amenazas latentes. Es posible que un aumento de la seguridad a través de un mayor involucramiento de los servicios secretos en asuntos privados, en detrimento de la libertad, sea un procesoal que Francia se esté enfrentando actualmente. Indudablemente, no será sencillo ni para Francia, ni para Europa ni para el resto del mundo deshacerse del terrorismo. Queda mucho por hacer. (1) Schmid andJongman (1988).Political Terrorism: A Research Guide to Concepts, Theories, Databases, and Literature. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books.(2) Ami‐Jacques Rapin (2011).What is terrorism?Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression Vol. 3, Iss. 3, 2011(3) Rubin, G.J., Amlot, R., Page, L., &Wessely, S. (2008). Methodological challenges in assessing general population reactions in the immediate aftermath of a terrorist attack.International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 17, 29–35.(4) Weinberg, L., A. Pedahzur and S. Hirsch-Hoefler (2004) 'The challenges of conceptualising terrorism', in Terrorism and Political violence, vol. 16, no. 4,pp. 777-794.(5) M. Crenshaw (1981),The Causes of Terrorism, Comparative Politics, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 389. Program in Political Science of the City, University of New York(6) I. Duyvesteyn (2004), How New Is New Terrorism?, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 27, Number 5, September-October 2004 , pp. 439-454(7) Rapin (2011)(8) A. Krueger and J.Maleckova (2003). Education, Poverty And Terrorism: Is There A Causal Connection?, Journal of Economic Perspectives, v17(4,Fall), 119-144.(9) Borum, R. (2003). Understanding the Terrorist Mind-Set. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin72 (July), 7-10. Disponible enhttps://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/201462.pdf(10) Idem. P. 9*Estudiante de la Licenciatura en Estudios Internacionales. FACS, Universidad ORT Uruguay
Dissertação de mestrado em Medicina Legal e Ciências Forenses, apresentada à Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Coimbra. ; Violence against women is a widely spread phenomenon that still persists in actual societies, being currently recognized as a violation of human rights. Most of the times, it occurs within the family (domestic violence) and more specifically, within abusive intimate relationships - intimate partner violence (IPV). Considered as a priority in the political and national setting, many policies have been defined to prevent IPV. IPV is an important cause of women´s health problems, being the most extreme one the victim's homicide. The role of forensic pathology in these cases is crucial, constituting a priority in scientific research. Accordingly, the main objective of this study was to contribute to a better knowledge on fatal IPV in Portugal, concerning a forensic medicine perspective. This first national retrospective autopsy-based and judicial-proved study was based in fatal cases of women due to IPV-related homicide perpetrated by intimate partners and was conducted, based in the statistics of the National Institute of Legal Medicine (which covers 83.4% of the total Portuguese population), between 2005-2007. The main findings of this study were: 1. At least 62 women were killed by current or former men-intimate partners, corresponding to an IPV-related female mortality rate of 0.44 per 100.000 women aged 15 years old or older; 2. Fatal IPV constitutes an important part of forensic autopsies' case load (13%), representing the most common type of women's homicide (61%); 3. The typical Portuguese victim is a young adult woman, employed, killed by a current husband in a long-term relationship, usually with offspring in common and most of the times with a history of previous IPV (79%); 4. The typical Portuguese perpetrator is a man, older than the victim, employed, usually with a history of substances abuse and psychiatric problems, owning a firearm and without criminal records; 5. Most fatal events took place in the summer, during the weekend, in homes shared by the victim and perpetrator and were triggered mostly by a context of separation (39%) or jealousy (32%); 6. Some perpetrators attempted (23%) or committed suicide (24%) afterwards, other multiple victims occur as 2 attempted and 6 consummated homicides and 21% of the events occurred in the presence of minors; 7. Most women were killed by gunshot trauma (45%), especially in the thorax (49%), with multiple fatal injuries (55%) and 57% also presented non-fatal IPV related injuries (including defense wounds in 73%), particularly due to blunt trauma (63%); 8. Only some victims presented positive toxicological exams for alcohol (17%) and abuse drugs (7%) while all DNA samples which were collected in suspected sexual assault cases (15%) were negative; 9. Perpetrators, who did not die, were prosecuted and convicted of murder in 98% of the cases. Despite the absolute number, and also the correspondingly mortality rate of IPV-related homicide of women being low (when compared with published data), the respectively prevalence among women´s homicides is high. Discrepancies among national and international prevalence are mainly explained due to the use of distinct definitions of intimate relationships and different research methodologies. The lack of some information on the victims, perpetrators and results of the criminal investigation, found in this study, obligates to a better search during the forensic medicine approach. Our analysis and those of others suggest that: (a) Detecting timely high-risk IPV situations (which allow DV protective measures to be applied); (b) Preventing alcohol abuse; (c) Improving mental health care services; (d) Controlling access to firearms; and (f) Recognizing previous IPV, should have a positive impact in decreasing and preventing IPV fatal outcomes. This work also emphasizes the need to deepen the research on this issue, adopting standard comparable definitions and eventually to create a national homicide database, with the final aim of preventing both fatal and non-fatal cases IPV-related. ; A violência contra a mulher é um fenómeno universal que ainda persiste nas sociedades actuais, sendo actualmente reconhecido como uma violação dos direitos humanos. Geralmente, este tipo de violência ocorre no contexto familiar, correspondendo a uma situação de violência doméstica, mais especificamente no contexto de relações íntimas abusivas - violência nas relações de intimidade (VRI). Considerada uma prioridade no contexto político nacional e internacional, várias medidas têm vindo a ser implementadas para prevenir a VRI. A VRI é uma importante causa de problemas de saúde nas mulheres sendo a sua consequência mais extrema a morte da vítima por homicídio. Nestes casos, o papel da Patologia Forense é crucial, tornando este tópico uma prioridade em termos de investigação científica. Assim, o principal objectivo deste estudo foi contribuir para um melhor conhecimento sobre a temática dos casos mortais de vítimas de VRI em Portugal, segundo uma perspectiva médico-legal. Trata-se do primeiro estudo nacional e retrospectivo de autópsias médico-legais de mulheres vítimas de homicídio no contexto de uma relação de intimidade, perpetrado por parceiros homens, comprovados judicialmente e com base na casuística do Instituto Nacional de Medicina Legal (que abrange 83.4% da população Portuguesa), entre 2005-2007. As principais conclusões deste estudo foram: 1. Pelos menos 62 mulheres foram mortas no seio de uma relação de intimidade (actual ou passada), correspondendo a uma taxa de mortalidade de mulheres por VRI de 0.44 por 100.000 mulheres com idade igual ou superior a 15 anos; 2. Os casos mortais de VRI constituem uma importante fracção de todas as autópsias médico-legais (13%), representando o principal tipo de homicídio nas mulheres (61%); 3. O perfil mais habitual da vítima Portuguesa é o de uma mulher adulta jovem, empregada, numa relação conjugal de longa-duração, geralmente com filhos em comum e maioritariamente, com uma história prévia de VRI (79%); 4. O perfil mais habitual do perpetrador Português é o de um homem mais velho que a vítima, empregado, geralmente com história de abuso de substâncias e problemas psiquiátricos, detentor de arma de fogo e sem registo criminal; 5. A maioria dos eventos fatais ocorreram no Verão, durante o fim de semana, nas casas das próprias vítimas e perpetradores e foram desencadeados num contexto de separação (39%) ou ciúme (32%); 6. Posteriormente, alguns perpetradores tentaram (23%) ou consumaram o suicídio (24%); concomitantemente ocorreram 2 tentativas de homicídio e 6 homicídios consumados; 21% dos eventos foram presenciados por menores; 7. A maioria das mulheres foi morta por arma de fogo (45%), sobretudo no tórax (49%), envolvendo múltiplas lesões (55%) e 57% apresentavam lesões associadas não fatais produzidas por VRI (incluindo 73% com lesões de defesa), especialmente por traumatismo contundente (63%); 8. Apenas algumas mulheres apresentaram exames toxicológicos positivos para álcool (17%) e drogas de abuso (7%) enquanto todas as amostras colhidas de ADN nos casos suspeitos de abuso sexual (15%) foram negativas; 9. Os perpetradores que não morreram antes do julgamento, foram acusados e condenados de homicídio em 98% dos casos. Apesar do número absoluto e da correspondente taxa de mortalidade de mulheres por VRI ser baixa (quando comparada com a literatura publicada), a respectiva prevalência em relação ao total de homicídios de mulheres é alta. As discrepâncias nas prevalências encontradas em estudos nacionais e internacionais podem ser explicadas, sobretudo, pelas distintas definições de relações de intimidade e diferentes metodologias usadas. A informação em falta detectada durante o estudo, sobretudo relacionada com as vítimas, perpetradores e investigação criminal, suscita que se atribua uma maior atenção no que se refere à obtenção de informação circunstancial durante a intervenção médico-legal. A nossa análise e a de outros sugere que a: (a) Detecção atempada de situações de VRI de alto risco (que permitam a oportuna aplicação de medidas de protecção de vitimas); (b) Prevenção de abuso de álcool; (c) Melhoria dos serviços de saúde mental; (d) Acesso controlado a armas de fogo e (f) Reconhecimento de história prévia de VRI, podem ter um impacto positivo na diminuição e prevenção dos casos mortais nas relações de intimidade. Este estudo enfatiza, ainda, a necessidade de uma investigação mais profunda desta problemática, com adopção de definições comparáveis e eventualmente, a criação de uma base de dados nacional de homicídios, com o objectivo final de prevenir ambos as situações de VRI fatal e não fatal.
L'anomenat drenatge àcid de mina (AMD) ve generat per l'oxidació de sulfurs i és causa major de contaminació d'aigües a nivell mundial. L'arsènic és un del princiapls contaminants laconcentració del qual pot assolir centenars de mgL-1, és a dir, de 5 a 6 ordres de magnitud més gran que el límit de potabilitat per a l'aigua (10μg L-1) establert per la UE en 1998. En aquesta tesi, s'estudia l'impacte de la mobilització de l'arsènic al llarg de descàrregues de drenatge àcid de mina. L'oxidació de sulfurs que contenen arsènic (tal com l'arsenopirita (AsFeS), la pirita rica en arsènic (FeS2) o la marcassita (FeS2) és una de les principals fonts d'alliberament d'arsènic a l'aigua. En la primera part de la tesi, s'ha estudiat la cinètica de dissolució de l'arsenopirita i de la marcassita a pHs àcids i neutre, utilitzant reactors de flux continu, i s'han valorat els efectes del pH, de l'oxigen dissolt i de la temperatura en la dissolució d'ambdós sulfurs. A partir de les velocitats en estat estacionari establertes, es proposen les respectives lleis de dissolució que tenen en compte el lleu i el fort efecte del pH i de l'oxigen dissolt, respectivament, en llur dissolució. La incorporació d'aquestes lleis cinètiques en les bases de dades del codis geoquímics i de transport reactitu permeten fer prediccions molt més realistes. L'impacte mediambiental causat per l'arsènic alliberat a les aigües depèn de la seva atenuació natural. El principal procés que controla el destí i la mobilitat de l'arsènic aquós és l'adsorció de l'arsenat en fases de ferro precipitades. Per tant, cal tenir en compte el paper que juga l'estat d'oxidació de l'arsènic. En la segona part de la tesi, shan estudiat tant l'oxidació de l'arsènic com l'adsorció de l'arsènic. L'oxidació s'estudia en condicions abiòtiques i biòtiques a pH i composició típics d'aigües àcides de mina, fent servir experiments de tipus batch. S'hi mostra com en condicions biòtiques tenen lloc simultàniament l'oxidació de Fe(II) a Fe (III) i d'arsenit a arsenat, de manera que mentre els bacteris governen la primera, el contingut de Fe(III) domina la segona. En condicions abiòtiques, l'oxidació d'arsenit a arsenat en presència de Fe(III) és lenta, tot i que augmenta augmentant la presència de Fe(III) i de clorur amb llum de dia. L'adsorció d'arsènic en llocs d'AMD, i per tant l'atenuació d'arsènic, ocorre mitjançant l'adsorció d'arsenat en precipitats formats per oxi-hidròxids i oxi-hidròxid-sulfats de ferro (principalment schwertmannita (Fe8O8(OH)5.5(SO4)1.25), K-jarosita (KFe3(SO4)2(OH)6) i goetita (FeOOH)). S'han estudiat les capacitats d'adsorció de la jarosita i de la goetita i s'han comparat amb la de la schwertmannita. Amb aquest propòsit es van fer experiments de tipus batch a pH molt àcid i amb mostres sintetitzades de K-jarosita i de goetita. Sense la competència d'altres anions, la capacitat de la jarosita per eliminar arsenat és més alta que la de la goetita. També s'ha vist que la força iònica té un escàs efecte en l'adsorció d'ambdós minerals, però que la presència de sulfat, que és l'anió més abundant en aigües àcides de mina, minva llurs capacitas d'adsorció. Cal conèixer bé els mecanismes dominants que controlen el contingut d'arsènic en les aigües, no només en condicions de laboratori, sinó també en les condicions de camp. Per tant, en la tercera part de la tesi s'han estudiat el processos d'atenuació de l'arsènic en un sistema natural. Amb aquest objetiu s'han caracterizat exhaustivament l'aigua i els sediments del rieron provinent de la mina abandonada Tinto Santa Rosa, situada a la Faixa Pirítica Ibèrica (IPB). La característica dominant de l'aigua del rierol és un descens del pH aigües avall que va acompanyat d'un decreixement sistemàtic de les concentracions de ferro ferrós i de ferro total, d'arsenit i d'arsenat, així com d'arsènic total. A més a més, els sediments de llit mostren contiguts alts d'arsènic. Els principals mecanismes que dominen el destí i la mobilitat de l'arsènic en aquestes aigües de camp són l'oxidació del ferro i de l'arsènic i la precipitatió de compostos de Fe(III) que adsorbeixen l'arsenat. S'ha proposat un model unidimensional de trasnport reactiu, utilitzant el codi PHREEQC, per explicar i quantificar els processos mencionats que han estat estudiats en condicions de laboratori. ; Acid mine drainage (AMD) generated by sulfide oxidative dissolution is a major cause of water contamination world-wide. Arsenic is one of the main AMD pollutants whose concentration can reach up to hundreds of mg L-1, i.e. 5-6 orders of magnitude higher than the limit of 10 μg L-1 for potable water established by the European Union in 1998. This thesis is concerned with the impact of arsenic mobilization along AMD discharges. Oxidation of As-bearing sulfides such as arsenopyrite (AsFeS), As-rich pyrite (FeS2) or marcasite (FeS2) is one of the main sources of arsenic release. The first part of this thesis is focused on the dissolution kinetics of arsenopyrite and marcasite at acidic to neutral pH using long term flow-through experiments. The effects of pH, dissolved oxygen and temperature on their dissolution were assessed. The respective dissolution rate laws were proposed on the basis of the steady-state rates, taking into consideration the slight pH effect and the strong dissolved oxygen effect on dissolution. The incorporation of these rate laws into the kinetic databases of geochemical and reactive transport codes allows us to obtain better realistic simulations. The environmental impact of released arsenic into waters depends on its natural attenuation. The arsenic oxidation state is considered given that the main process that controls the fate and mobility of aqueous arsenic is arsenate sorption onto precipitated Fe-phases. The second part of the thesis discusses arsenic oxidation and arsenic sorption. Oxidation was studied by means of batch experiments under abiotic and biotic conditions at typical AMD water pH and water composition. Simultaneous oxidation of Fe(II) to Fe(III) and arsenite to arsenate occurs under biotic conditions, the former mediated by bacteria, and the latter by the presence of Fe(III). Under abiotic conditions, oxidation of arsenite to arsenate in the presence of Fe(III) is slow, but is enhanced by increasing dissolved Fe(III) and chloride concentrations in the presence of light. Arsenic sorption at AMD sites, and hence arsenic attenuation, occurs via arsenate sorption on new iron-oxyhydroxide and iron-oxyhydroxide-sulphate precipitates (mainly, schwertmannite (Fe8O8(OH)5.5(SO4)1.25), jarosite (KFe3(SO4)2(OH)6) and goethite (FeOOH)). The sorption capacity of goethite and jarosite was studied and compared with the one reported for schwertmannite. To this end, batch experiments were conducted using synthetic powders of K-jarosite and goethite at highly acidic pH. In the absence of competitive effects of other anions, K-jarosite presented better removal efficiency for arsenate, and ionic strength and pH had little effect on the sorption capacity of the two minerals. In contrast, these sorption capacities diminished considerably in the presence of sulfate, which is the main anion in AMD waters. A deeper understanding of the dominant mechanisms controlling arsenic content in waters demands the study of the processes not only under laboratory but also under natural conditions. Accordingly, the third part of this thesis deals with the arsenic attenuation processes in a natural system. To this end, the acidic water and sediments of the abandoned Tinto Santa Rosa mine discharge, located in the Iberian Pyritic Belt, were studied. The most striking feature of the water was a pH decrease accompanied by a systematic decrease in ferrous iron, total iron, arsenite, arsenate and total arsenic concentration. Additionally, bed-stream sediments showed high arsenic contents. The main processes that control the fate and mobility of arsenic in waters in the field were iron and arsenic oxidation, precipitation of Fe(III)- minerals and sorption of As(V) onto them. A 1-D reactive transport model using the PHREEQC code was used to explain and quantify the aforementioned processes that had been studied previously under laboratory conditions. ; Postprint (published version)
L'anomenat drenatge àcid de mina (AMD) ve generat per l'oxidació de sulfurs i és causa major de contaminació d'aigües a nivell mundial. L'arsènic és un del princiapls contaminants laconcentració del qual pot assolir centenars de mgL-1, és a dir, de 5 a 6 ordres de magnitud més gran que el límit de potabilitat per a l'aigua (10μg L-1) establert per la UE en 1998. En aquesta tesi, s'estudia l'impacte de la mobilització de l'arsènic al llarg de descàrregues de drenatge àcid de mina. L'oxidació de sulfurs que contenen arsènic (tal com l'arsenopirita (AsFeS), la pirita rica en arsènic (FeS2) o la marcassita (FeS2) és una de les principals fonts d'alliberament d'arsènic a l'aigua. En la primera part de la tesi, s'ha estudiat la cinètica de dissolució de l'arsenopirita i de la marcassita a pHs àcids i neutre, utilitzant reactors de flux continu, i s'han valorat els efectes del pH, de l'oxigen dissolt i de la temperatura en la dissolució d'ambdós sulfurs. A partir de les velocitats en estat estacionari establertes, es proposen les respectives lleis de dissolució que tenen en compte el lleu i el fort efecte del pH i de l'oxigen dissolt, respectivament, en llur dissolució. La incorporació d'aquestes lleis cinètiques en les bases de dades del codis geoquímics i de transport reactitu permeten fer prediccions molt més realistes. L'impacte mediambiental causat per l'arsènic alliberat a les aigües depèn de la seva atenuació natural. El principal procés que controla el destí i la mobilitat de l'arsènic aquós és l'adsorció de l'arsenat en fases de ferro precipitades. Per tant, cal tenir en compte el paper que juga l'estat d'oxidació de l'arsènic. En la segona part de la tesi, shan estudiat tant l'oxidació de l'arsènic com l'adsorció de l'arsènic. L'oxidació s'estudia en condicions abiòtiques i biòtiques a pH i composició típics d'aigües àcides de mina, fent servir experiments de tipus batch. S'hi mostra com en condicions biòtiques tenen lloc simultàniament l'oxidació de Fe(II) a Fe (III) i d'arsenit a arsenat, de manera que mentre els bacteris governen la primera, el contingut de Fe(III) domina la segona. En condicions abiòtiques, l'oxidació d'arsenit a arsenat en presència de Fe(III) és lenta, tot i que augmenta augmentant la presència de Fe(III) i de clorur amb llum de dia. L'adsorció d'arsènic en llocs d'AMD, i per tant l'atenuació d'arsènic, ocorre mitjançant l'adsorció d'arsenat en precipitats formats per oxi-hidròxids i oxi-hidròxid-sulfats de ferro (principalment schwertmannita (Fe8O8(OH)5.5(SO4)1.25), K-jarosita (KFe3(SO4)2(OH)6) i goetita (FeOOH)). S'han estudiat les capacitats d'adsorció de la jarosita i de la goetita i s'han comparat amb la de la schwertmannita. Amb aquest propòsit es van fer experiments de tipus batch a pH molt àcid i amb mostres sintetitzades de K-jarosita i de goetita. Sense la competència d'altres anions, la capacitat de la jarosita per eliminar arsenat és més alta que la de la goetita. També s'ha vist que la força iònica té un escàs efecte en l'adsorció d'ambdós minerals, però que la presència de sulfat, que és l'anió més abundant en aigües àcides de mina, minva llurs capacitas d'adsorció. Cal conèixer bé els mecanismes dominants que controlen el contingut d'arsènic en les aigües, no només en condicions de laboratori, sinó també en les condicions de camp. Per tant, en la tercera part de la tesi s'han estudiat el processos d'atenuació de l'arsènic en un sistema natural. Amb aquest objetiu s'han caracterizat exhaustivament l'aigua i els sediments del rieron provinent de la mina abandonada Tinto Santa Rosa, situada a la Faixa Pirítica Ibèrica (IPB). La característica dominant de l'aigua del rierol és un descens del pH aigües avall que va acompanyat d'un decreixement sistemàtic de les concentracions de ferro ferrós i de ferro total, d'arsenit i d'arsenat, així com d'arsènic total. A més a més, els sediments de llit mostren contiguts alts d'arsènic. Els principals mecanismes que dominen el destí i la mobilitat de l'arsènic en aquestes aigües de camp són l'oxidació del ferro i de l'arsènic i la precipitatió de compostos de Fe(III) que adsorbeixen l'arsenat. S'ha proposat un model unidimensional de trasnport reactiu, utilitzant el codi PHREEQC, per explicar i quantificar els processos mencionats que han estat estudiats en condicions de laboratori. ; Acid mine drainage (AMD) generated by sulfide oxidative dissolution is a major cause of water contamination world-wide. Arsenic is one of the main AMD pollutants whose concentration can reach up to hundreds of mg L-1, i.e. 5-6 orders of magnitude higher than the limit of 10 μg L-1 for potable water established by the European Union in 1998. This thesis is concerned with the impact of arsenic mobilization along AMD discharges. Oxidation of As-bearing sulfides such as arsenopyrite (AsFeS), As-rich pyrite (FeS2) or marcasite (FeS2) is one of the main sources of arsenic release. The first part of this thesis is focused on the dissolution kinetics of arsenopyrite and marcasite at acidic to neutral pH using long term flow-through experiments. The effects of pH, dissolved oxygen and temperature on their dissolution were assessed. The respective dissolution rate laws were proposed on the basis of the steady-state rates, taking into consideration the slight pH effect and the strong dissolved oxygen effect on dissolution. The incorporation of these rate laws into the kinetic databases of geochemical and reactive transport codes allows us to obtain better realistic simulations. The environmental impact of released arsenic into waters depends on its natural attenuation. The arsenic oxidation state is considered given that the main process that controls the fate and mobility of aqueous arsenic is arsenate sorption onto precipitated Fe-phases. The second part of the thesis discusses arsenic oxidation and arsenic sorption. Oxidation was studied by means of batch experiments under abiotic and biotic conditions at typical AMD water pH and water composition. Simultaneous oxidation of Fe(II) to Fe(III) and arsenite to arsenate occurs under biotic conditions, the former mediated by bacteria, and the latter by the presence of Fe(III). Under abiotic conditions, oxidation of arsenite to arsenate in the presence of Fe(III) is slow, but is enhanced by increasing dissolved Fe(III) and chloride concentrations in the presence of light. Arsenic sorption at AMD sites, and hence arsenic attenuation, occurs via arsenate sorption on new iron-oxyhydroxide and iron-oxyhydroxide-sulphate precipitates (mainly, schwertmannite (Fe8O8(OH)5.5(SO4)1.25), jarosite (KFe3(SO4)2(OH)6) and goethite (FeOOH)). The sorption capacity of goethite and jarosite was studied and compared with the one reported for schwertmannite. To this end, batch experiments were conducted using synthetic powders of K-jarosite and goethite at highly acidic pH. In the absence of competitive effects of other anions, K-jarosite presented better removal efficiency for arsenate, and ionic strength and pH had little effect on the sorption capacity of the two minerals. In contrast, these sorption capacities diminished considerably in the presence of sulfate, which is the main anion in AMD waters. A deeper understanding of the dominant mechanisms controlling arsenic content in waters demands the study of the processes not only under laboratory but also under natural conditions. Accordingly, the third part of this thesis deals with the arsenic attenuation processes in a natural system. To this end, the acidic water and sediments of the abandoned Tinto Santa Rosa mine discharge, located in the Iberian Pyritic Belt, were studied. The most striking feature of the water was a pH decrease accompanied by a systematic decrease in ferrous iron, total iron, arsenite, arsenate and total arsenic concentration. Additionally, bed-stream sediments showed high arsenic contents. The main processes that control the fate and mobility of arsenic in waters in the field were iron and arsenic oxidation, precipitation of Fe(III)- minerals and sorption of As(V) onto them. A 1-D reactive transport model using the PHREEQC code was used to explain and quantify the aforementioned processes that had been studied previously under laboratory conditions. ; Postprint (published version)
Emerging economies and the behaviour of firms domiciled in these markets is beginning to develop as a research area; yet little empirical work exists (Bruton, Ahlstrom, & Obloj, 2008; Hoskisson, Eden, Lau, & Wright, 2000; Meyer & Peng, 2005; Peng, Wang, & Jiang, 2008; Wright, Filatotchev, Hoskisson, & Peng, 2005). An extensive and critical review of the literature revealed that there was limited research that focused on the internationalisation of emerging economy firms to other emerging and developed economies. In order to address this clear gap in our understanding, the broad research problem that this thesis sets out to investigate is 'how do institutions, organisational governance and managerial intentionality effect the internationalisation of smaller Indian firms'? It is argued that in order for research in strategy to make a lasting contribution, there is a need to contemplate whether the theories and methodologies developed in primarily mature and developed economies are applicable to the emerging economy context (Wright et al., 2005). In addressing this concern, this study draws on institutional theory, transaction cost theory, the resource-based view and aspects of the organisational capabilities perspective in order to understand the internationalisation of smaller Indian firms. In particular, the aim of this research was to understand the effect of institutions (Research Question One), organisational governance (Research Question Two) and the moderating effect of managerial intentionality (Research Question Three) on the internationalisation of smaller Indian firms. India was chosen as the context for the study due to its rapid growth in recent years which places it among the four big emerging economies of the world (Wilson & Purushothaman, 2003). The relatively recent liberalisation of the Indian economy in 1991 provides an interesting context within which to study the internationalisation behaviour of firms. Prior to its liberalisation India adopted what was known as an inward-focused, socialist-style, economic framework (Wilson & Keim, 2006). The liberalisation of the Indian economy has increased the country's trade linkages with other emerging and developed countries, yet little research has been conducted on the internationalisation of Indian firms (Peng et al., 2008; Wright et al., 2005). Further, India's linguistic distance but geographic closeness to emerging markets, yet western Commonwealth past and geographic distance to developed markets makes it a unique context. The research methodology adopted in this study entailed a qualitative design conducted through multiple case studies. The case study firms comprised four smaller manufacturing and four smaller service firms. Cases for the study were selected theoretically (Eisenhardt, 1989) using intensity sampling, snowball sampling, criterion sampling and opportunistic sampling techniques (Patton, 1990). To determine the size of the firms, the definition proposed by the Government of India was used. One key growth region in India was chosen due to the institutional diversity in India. Bangalore was chosen as it is considered a high growth region of the country that is well reputed for its service sector, as well as a competitive manufacturing sector (Ahya, Xie, Roach, Sheth, & Yam, 2006). The adoption of a multiple case study design facilitated an aggregated cross-case analysis. The data was collected through in-depth, semi-structured interviews with senior management in the selected case study firms. In addition, documentary evidence was collected through newspaper articles, information from trade journals and information from the company websites. The interviews were guided by an interview protocol and a case study database was created for each firm in order to increase the reliability and validity of the data. The data was coded using NVivo (version 7) and analysed using the 'template approach' (Crabtree & Miller, 1999). To date, literature originating out of mature markets has regarded institutions as background information due to the stability and maturity of institutions in these markets (Ingram & Silverman, 2002). However, when studied in an emerging market context, the role of institutions is argued to be pushed to the forefront of strategy research due to its relative underdevelopment (Meyer & Peng, 2005). This study used Scott's (1995) three institutional pillars (regulative, normative and cognitive) to gain an institution-based view of the business strategies pursued by the smaller Indian firms (Peng et al., 2008). The findings highlighted regulatory institutional influences at the home country, host country and trade policy levels. The findings from this study shed light on the notion of institutional entrepreneurship, thereby extending institutional theory to take into account the strategic behaviour of firms. The findings further emphasised the need to gain legitimacy in international markets as a means to gain access to resources and overcome the liabilities of foreignness and newness. In doing so, the findings from this study extended Mathews' (2006) 'linkage, leverage and learning' strategy to a 'linkage, leverage, learning and legitimising' strategy. Next, the findings from Research Question One extended the U-Model of internationalisation to highlight the importance of domestic market experience when gained in an institutionally complex market such as India. Finally, the findings highlighted the interaction between the path-dependent experience of the founders and the various dimensions of their managerial intentionality in managing the institutional influences on the firm. In studying organisational governance decisions (Research Question Two), transaction cost theory was used as the key conceptual perspective. This study used Williamson's (1975) governance continuum to understand the organisational governance decisions of smaller Indian firms. Interestingly, the findings emphasised a move away from the narrow comparative-efficiency framework developed by Williamson (1975), towards a more eclectic understanding of the effect of transaction costs. The findings highlighted the choice of governance modes not as discrete designs, but as those that overlap as a result of being influenced by institutions, the experience of the firm with a particular mode, the propensity to trust, the constraints on firm behaviour, the managerial intentionality of the founders and the need to gain local knowledge from network partners. In adopting this broader perspective, the findings addressed the call by Madhok (1997) to understand the choice of governance modes from more than a cost minimisation perspective. Hutzschenreuter, Pedersen and Volberda (2007) suggested that the role of managerial discretion to date is downplayed in existing IB literature and hence called for research to focus on the role of managerial intent in the strategies of established multinationals rather than on the process of 'becoming a multinational'. Research Question Three highlighted the moderating effect of managerial intentionality in managing the institutional influences and governance decisions of the firm. This study extended Hutzschenreuter et al.'s (2007) conceptualisation of managerial intentionality by emphasising the resilience as well as the reluctance of the founders (due to past experiences) as important in the emerging economy context. This study has practical implications for the case study firms as well as for potential entrants into India. Firstly, for the case study firms it is important to develop clear internationalisation strategies (as opposed to a reactive approach) due to the increasing competition both locally and internationally. Second, for the manufacturing firms, it is important to move beyond their pure low cost advantage. Partnering with other companies to leverage their resources and capabilities in international markets is one possibility. Third, for these firms to remain globally competitive, the sourcing of international talent is likely to increase their legitimacy and reduce their liability of foreignness. Finally, the continued liberalisation of the Indian economy has made it an attractive destination for foreign firms. While the case study companies have recognised the opportunities overseas, they should not ignore their domestic market where they enjoy a 'home court advantage'. For potential entrants into India, it is important to recognise the potential competitive advantage that local incumbents have with regard to the environment. Second, foreign firms entering India and competing with smaller players need to understand the subtleties of the market and tailor their strategies to meet local needs. Finally, while this study has made contributions to the field, the findings must be interpreted in light of the limitations of the study. First, this study focused on one key big emerging market; India. Further, within India only one key region was examined. The findings reflect the business strategies by firms domiciled in Bangalore. Hence future studies could extend this research to other emerging markets and other regions of India to gain a more detailed perspective. Second, given the qualitative nature of the study, only analytical generalisations can be made. However, these insights can provide a basis for future researchers to develop quantitative measures to test the inferences drawn. Finally, this study was cross sectional in nature. In order to gain a more detailed analysis on the effect of institutions, future researchers may consider a longitudinal design to capture the institutional transitions over time.
Diese Dissertation beschreibt die Entwicklung und Anwendung des Klimawirkungsmoduls des ICLIPS-Modells, eines integrierten Modells des Klimawandels ('Integrated Assessment'-Modell). Vorangestellt ist eine Diskussion des gesellschaftspolitischen Kontexts, in dem modellbasiertes 'Integrated Assessment' stattfindet, aus der wichtige Anforderungen an die Spezifikation des Klimawirkungsmoduls abgeleitet werden. Das 'Integrated Assessment' des Klimawandels umfasst eine weiten Bereich von Aktivitäten zur wissenschaftsbasierten Unterstützung klimapolitischer Entscheidungen. Hierbei wird eine Vielzahl von Ansätzen verfolgt, um politikrelevante Informationen über die erwarteten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels zu berücksichtigen. Wichtige Herausforderungen in diesem Bereich sind die große Bandbreite der relevanten räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen, die multifaktorielle Verursachung vieler 'Klimafolgen', erhebliche wissenschaftliche Unsicherheiten sowie die Mehrdeutigkeit unvermeidlicher Werturteile. Die Entwicklung eines hierarchischen Konzeptmodells erlaubt die Strukturierung der verschiedenen Ansätze sowie die Darstellung eines mehrstufigen Entwicklungsprozesses, der sich in der Praxis und der zu Grunde liegenden Theorie von Studien zur Vulnerabilität hinsichtlich des Klimawandels wiederspiegelt. 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle des Klimawandels sind wissenschaftliche Werkzeuge, welche eine vereinfachte Beschreibung des gekoppelten Mensch-Klima-Systems enthalten. Die wichtigsten entscheidungstheoretischen Ansätze im Bereich des modellbasierten 'Integrated Assessment' werden im Hinblick auf ihre Fähigkeit zur adäquaten Darstellung klimapolitischer Entscheidungsprobleme bewertet. Dabei stellt der 'Leitplankenansatz' eine 'inverse' Herangehensweise zur Unterstützung klimapolitischer Entscheidungen dar, bei der versucht wird, die Gesamtheit der klimapolitischen Strategien zu bestimmen, die mit einer Reihe von zuvor normativ bestimmten Mindestkriterien (den sogenannten 'Leitplanken') verträglich sind. Dieser Ansatz verbindet bis zu einem gewissen Grad die wissenschaftliche Strenge und Objektivität simulationsbasierter Ansätze mit der Fähigkeit von Optimierungsansätzen, die Gesamtheit aller Entscheidungsoptionen zu berücksichtigen. Das ICLIPS-Modell ist das erste 'Integrated Assessment'-Modell des Klimawandels, welches den Leitplankenansatz implementiert. Die Darstellung von Klimafolgen ist eine wichtige Herausforderung für 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle des Klimawandels. Eine Betrachtung bestehender 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle offenbart große Unterschiede in der Berücksichtigung verschiedener vom Klimawandel betroffenen Sektoren, in der Wahl des bzw. der Indikatoren zur Darstellung von Klimafolgen, in der Berücksichtigung nicht-klimatischer Entwicklungen einschließlich gezielter Anpassungsmaßnahmen an den Klimawandel, in der Behandlung von Unsicherheiten und in der Berücksichtigung von 'singulären' Ereignissen. 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle, die auf einem Inversansatz beruhen, stellen besondere Anforderungen an die Darstellung von Klimafolgen. Einerseits muss der Detaillierungsgrad hinreichend sein, um Leitplanken für Klimafolgen sinnvoll definieren zu können; andererseits muss die Darstellung effizient genug sein, um die Gesamtheit der möglichen klimapolitischen Strategien erkunden zu können. Großräumige Singularitäten können häufig durch vereinfachte dynamische Modelle abgebildet werden. Diese Methode ist jedoch weniger geeignet für reguläre Klimafolgen, bei denen die Bestimmung relevanter Ergebnisse in der Regel die Berücksichtigung der Heterogenität von klimatischen, naturräumlichen und sozialen Faktoren auf der lokalen oder regionalen Ebene erfordert. Klimawirkungsfunktionen stellen sich als die geeignetste Darstellung regulärer Klimafolgen im ICLIPS-Modell heraus. Eine Klimawirkungsfunktion beschreibt in aggregierter Form die Reaktion eines klimasensitiven Systems, wie sie von einem geographisch expliziten Klimawirkungsmodell für eine repräsentative Teilmenge möglicher zukünftiger Entwicklungen simuliert wurde. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Klimawirkungsfunktionen nutzen die globale Mitteltemperatur sowie die atmosphärische CO2-Konzentration als Prädiktoren für global und regional aggregierte Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf natürliche Ökosysteme, die landwirtschaftliche Produktion und die Wasserverfügbarkeit. Die Anwendung einer 'Musterskalierungstechnik' ermöglicht hierbei die Berücksichtigung der regionalen und saisonalen Muster des Klimaänderungssignals aus allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodellen, ohne die Effizienz der dynamischen Modellkomponenten zu beeinträchtigen. Bemühungen zur quantitativen Abschätzung zukünftiger Klimafolgen sehen sich bei der Wahl geeigneter Indikatoren in der Regel einem Zielkonflikt zwischen der Relevanz eines Indikators für Entscheidungsträger und der Zuverlässigkeit, mit der dieser bestimmt werden kann, gegenüber. Eine Reihe von nichtmonetären Indikatoren zur aggregierten Darstellung von Klimafolgen in Klimawirkungsfunktionen wird präsentiert, welche eine Balance zwischen diesen beiden Zielen anstreben und gleichzeitig die Beschränkungen berücksichtigen, die sich aus anderen Komponenten des ICLIPS-Modells ergeben. Klimawirkungsfunktionen werden durch verschiedene Typen von Diagrammen visualisiert, welche jeweils unterschiedliche Perspektiven auf die Ergebnismenge der Klimawirkungssimulationen erlauben. Die schiere Anzahl von Klimawirkungsfunktionen verhindert ihre umfassende Darstellung in dieser Arbeit. Ausgewählte Ergebnisse zu Veränderungen in der räumlichen Ausdehnung von Biomen, im landwirtschaftlichen Potential verschiedener Länder und in der Wasserverfügbarkeit in mehreren großen Einzugsgebieten werden diskutiert. Die Gesamtheit der Klimawirkungsfunktionen wird zugänglich gemacht durch das 'ICLIPS Impacts Tool', eine graphische Benutzeroberfläche, die einen bequemen Zugriff auf über 100.000 Klimawirkungsdiagramme ermöglicht. Die technischen Aspekte der Software sowie die zugehörige Datenbasis wird beschrieben. Die wichtigste Anwendung von Klimawirkungsfunktionen ist im 'Inversmodus', wo sie genutzt werden, um Leitplanken zur Begrenzung von Klimafolgen in gleichzeitige Randbedingungen für Variablen aus dem optimierenden ICLIPS-Klima-Weltwirtschafts-Modell zu übersetzen. Diese Übersetzung wird ermöglicht durch Algorithmen zur Bestimmung von Mengen erreichbarer Klimazustände ('reachable climate domains') sowie zur parametrisierten Approximation zulässiger Klimafenster ('admissible climate windows'), die aus Klimawirkungsfunktionen abgeleitet werden. Der umfassende Bestand an Klimawirkungsfunktionen zusammen mit diesen Algorithmen ermöglicht es dem integrierten ICLIPS-Modell, in flexibler Weise diejenigen klimapolitischen Strategien zu bestimmen, welche bestimmte in biophysikalischen Einheiten ausgedrückte Begrenzungen von Klimafolgen explizit berücksichtigen. Diese Möglichkeit bietet kein anderes intertemporal optimierendes 'Integrated Assessment'-Modell. Eine Leitplankenanalyse mit dem integrierten ICLIPS-Modell unter Anwendung ausgewählter Klimawirkungsfunktionen für Veränderungen natürlicher Ökosysteme wird beschrieben. In dieser Analyse werden so genannte 'notwendige Emissionskorridore' berechnet, die vorgegebene Beschränkungen hinsichtlich der maximal zulässigen globalen Vegetationsveränderungen und der regionalen Klimaschutzkosten berücksichtigen. Dies geschieht sowohl für eine 'Standardkombination' der drei gewählten Kriterien als auch für deren systematische Variation. Eine abschließende Diskussion aktueller Entwicklungen in der 'Integrated Assessment'-Modellierung stellt diese Arbeit mit anderen einschlägigen Bemühungen in Beziehung. ; This thesis describes the development and application of the impacts module of the ICLIPS model, a global integrated assessment model of climate change. The presentation of the technical aspects of this model component is preceded by a discussion of the sociopolitical context for model-based integrated assessments, which defines important requirements for the specification of the model. Integrated assessment of climate change comprises a broad range of scientific efforts to support the decision-making about objectives and measures for climate policy, whereby many different approaches have been followed to provide policy-relevant information about climate impacts. Major challenges in this context are the large diversity of the relevant spatial and temporal scales, the multifactorial causation of many climate impacts', considerable scientific uncertainties, and the ambiguity associated with unavoidable normative evaluations. A hierarchical framework is presented for structuring climate impact assessments that reflects the evolution of their practice and of the underlying theory. Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are scientific tools that contain simplified representations of the relevant components of the coupled society-climate system. The major decision-analytical frameworks for IAMs are evaluated according to their ability to address important aspects of the pertinent social decision problem. The guardrail approach is presented as an inverse' framework for climate change decision support, which aims to identify the whole set of policy strategies that are compatible with a set of normatively specified constraints (guardrails'). This approach combines, to a certain degree, the scientific rigour and objectivity typical of predictive approaches with the ability to consider virtually all decision options that is at the core of optimization approaches. The ICLIPS model is described as the first IAM that implements the guardrail approach. The representation of climate impacts is a key concern in any IAM. A review of existing IAMs reveals large differences in the coverage of impact sectors, in the choice of the impact numeraire(s), in the consideration of non-climatic developments, including purposeful adaptation, in the handling of uncertainty, and in the inclusion of singular events. IAMs based on an inverse approach impose specific requirements to the representation of climate impacts. This representation needs to combine a level of detail and reliability that is sufficient for the specification of impact guardrails with the conciseness and efficiency that allows for an exploration of the complete domain of plausible climate protection strategies. Large-scale singular events can often be represented by dynamic reduced-form models. This approach, however, is less appropriate for regular impacts where the determination of policy-relevant results generally needs to consider the heterogeneity of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors at the local or regional scale. Climate impact response functions (CIRFs) are identified as the most suitable reduced-form representation of regular climate impacts in the ICLIPS model. A CIRF depicts the aggregated response of a climate-sensitive system or sector as simulated by a spatially explicit sectoral impact model for a representative subset of plausible futures. In the CIRFs presented here, global mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are used as predictors for global and regional impacts on natural vegetation, agricultural crop production, and water availability. Application of a pattern scaling technique makes it possible to consider the regional and seasonal patterns in the climate anomalies simulated by several general circulation models while ensuring the efficiency of the dynamic model components. Efforts to provide quantitative estimates of future climate impacts generally face a trade-off between the relevance of an indicator for stakeholders and the exactness with which it can be determined. A number of non-monetary aggregated impact indicators for the CIRFs is presented, which aim to strike the balance between these two conflicting goals while taking into account additional constraints of the ICLIPS modelling framework. Various types of impact diagrams are used for the visualization of CIRFs, each of which provides a different perspective on the impact result space. The sheer number of CIRFs computed for the ICLIPS model precludes their comprehensive presentation in this thesis. Selected results referring to changes in the distribution of biomes in different biogeographical regions, in the agricultural potential of various countries, and in the water availability in selected major catchments are discussed. The full set of CIRFs is accessible via the ICLIPS Impacts Tool, a graphical user interface that provides convenient access to more than 100,000 impact diagrams developed for the ICLIPS model. The technical aspects of the software are described as well as the accompanying database of CIRFs. The most important application of CIRFs is in inverse' mode, where they are used to translate impact guardrails into simultaneous constraints for variables from the optimizing ICLIPS climate-economy model. This translation is facilitated by algorithms for the computation of reachable climate domains and for the parameterized approximation of admissible climate windows derived from CIRFs. The comprehensive set of CIRFs, together with these algorithms, enables the ICLIPS model to flexibly explore sets of climate policy strategies that explicitly comply with impact guardrails specified in biophysical units. This feature is not found in any other intertemporally optimizing IAM. A guardrail analysis with the integrated ICLIPS model is described that applies selected CIRFs for ecosystem changes. So-called necessary carbon emission corridors' are determined for a default choice of normative constraints that limit global vegetation impacts as well as regional mitigation costs, and for systematic variations of these constraints. A brief discussion of recent developments in integrated assessment modelling of climate change connects the work presented here with related efforts.
The Structure and Dynamics eJournal offers a conduit for refereed electronic publication, debate, and editorial communication in the domain of anthropology and human sciences. We invite you—as an open access reader at no cost, an author at no cost, or a volunteer, to submit book reviews or commentary—to contribute and to participate in raising the aspirations of the human sciences today. To submit an article, follow the link to "Submission guidelines." To submit a review simply click Submit a "Reader's Comment" at the article site. We comment here on the contents and success of the first two issues. Full-text downloads of the eJournal articles numbered 5,313 in the 11 months since September 23, 2005, now averaging 16-17 a day. This reflects positively on quality of the articles, made possible in turn by the high quality and incisiveness of reviews, the number and diversity of reviewers who have responded, and selection for quality in article acceptance and reviewers (and we thank our reviewers for their efforts at timely review). In just two issues, the eJournal has come a long way in attaining the goals set out for it as a publication in which scholarship and debate can be engaged in contemporary fields of research, one that provides a venue for the study of the complex interplay between dynamics and structure, and gives an outlet for methods and results which speak to the issues of simplicity in complexity and the study of structure and dynamics. It has also facilitated presentations of new forms of analysis and visualization, new forums for debate and new vehicles for the dissemination and absorption of work at the cutting edges of the human sciences. Authors of issue 1#1 have had feedback and good reception. Peter Turchin's findings on historical dynamics have been replicated, for example, using data covering a 700-year period from archaeological research in the Southwest. The replication study is in press in the journal Complexity. Wikipedia, at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cycle_theory, cites Turchin's article in issue 1#1. Several of the issue 1#1 articles are now reviewed in blogs and on-line commentaries, digests, or reference lists, many with timely google citations. Links to them are starting to appear on educational sites at which students have direct access to download and on-line readership. Issue 1#1 marked our first use of high-quality color imagery and live url links. Krempel and Schnegg's paper explained our journal's dynamic-gif logo in their "About the Image: Diffusion Dynamics in an Historical Network," which also allows the reader to link to the authors' longer 1998 study and its on-line imagery. That article, "Exposure, Networks and Mobilization: The Petition Movement during the 1848/49 Revolution in a German Town," published at http://www.mpi-fg-koeln.mpg.de/~lk/netvis/exposure, provides further background and examples for the innovative use of dynamic graphics. Summing up our current issue, 1#2, and to give readers an idea of the unusual and unique features of electronic publication, we review the advantages and evolution of our permanent, paper-quality, refereed eJournal publications. Along with our use of live url links and imagery on-line, these advantages are facilitated by our UC eScholarship publisher. In 1#2, Sean Downey provides a fascinating study that interrogates ethnographic and historical texts with the aid of simulation. He uses his approach to analyze the ethnographic/historical theory put forward by noted author Paul Willis in Learning to Labor, secondarily to show strengths and weaknesses of contemporary social theories such as those of Tony Giddens (1984) and, finally, also to identify the descriptive lacunae that limit this genre of simulation. As an invaluable gift to students and instructors (he is himself a graduate student), he supplies on-line the code for the simulation and, as a free resource, access to the simulation software package itself. Christiansen and Altaweel's "Understanding Ancient Societies," subtitled "A New Approach Using Agent-Based Holistic Modeling," describes their Argonne National Labs holistic agent-based simulation framework that couples with incredible depth to the real-world information that can be brought into simulation and modeling from the earth sciences, satellite imagery, climate modeling, the agricultural sciences, ethnography, network analysis, and a host of other areas. Focusing on the development of their model for addressing research questions about Mesopotamia, they explain and illustrate the general-purpose simulation framework. Their work offers a productive complementarity to Algaze's lead article in our first issue, where he poses a series of questions, hypotheses, and possible lines of evidence with which to explore the processes that lead to the first cities' takeoff. Wouter de Nooy's study of the networks and the structural dynamics of folktale plots, tested as well against literary interactions through time among Dutch literary critics, uses network analysis software described in his coauthored book with the software authors (de Nooy, Batagelj, and Mrvar 2005). He gives us the first-ever published SVG image produced by Pajek network software with interactivity within the SVG image itself (now available from the Pajek freeware authors at http://vlado.fmf.uni-lj.si/pub/networks/pajek/). The SVG image is not simply static but directly accessible, thanks to live links inside our eScholarship pdfs, as an interactive graphic that the reader can explore for different views of the data. Wilkinson and Tsirel evaluate limit cycles in Indic regional political polarities—how many polities in each ten year interval, coded from a comprehensive database—over two millennia. They begin with the simplest of models of temporal dynamics and historical limit cycles and proceed to evaluate at each step those of increasing complexity. The visual scanability of their multicolor graphical results helps to give the reader an ability to judge visually the contribution of different kinds of statistical analyses to understanding the complexity of the data and, in turn, the plausibility of different historical processes and explanations. Seary, Richards, McKeown-Eyssen, and Baines, in their "Networks of Symptoms and Exposures," provide an innovation that makes possible a better comprehension of statistical interactions in complex phenomena by enabling the reader to recognize linkages within complex data such as those in the field of medicine. The visual imagery of their 3-dimensional interactive "panigram" images, named from the Greek panis ("sail"), provides a generalization of simpler histograms that, by analogy, would be composed by an ordering of the one-dimensional heights of the ship's masts. The 3-D panigrams form an analog of planar sails rotatable about masts that represent the spines of the data structure. Co-authoring with professionals in the medical field, they use these images to look at the interrelations of people, their exposures to disease, and how symptoms are jointly distributed across both. Berkowitz, with his collaborators Woodward and Woodward, draws on his scholarship about the role of family and informal institutions in historical world economies to write of venerable and legal networks of exchange that have operated for millennia and yet that make it impossible to trace financial transactions through the modern computerized credit banking systems. His scholarship, interrupted by untimely death in 2003, is honored in this issue. Palmer, Steadman, and Coe, in "More Kin: An Effect of the Tradition of Marriage," utilize genealogical graphics, a mathematical model of networks and demography, and analysis of the relation between biology and culture to reopen important questions about the role of human kinship systems in human evolution, considered both in terms of networks and cognition. Their results for numbers of kin at various distances in bilateral kinship networks, depending both on demography and issues of social recognition, are cited in the article by Moody. James Moody's "Fighting a Hydra: A Note on the Network Embeddedness of the War on Terror," shares in common with Berkowitz et al.'s article a concern for misunderstandings that prompted and have emerged out of the War on Terror. Moody writes of the effects of misguided policies, such as described in the recent best seller by Thomas Ricks (2006), that fail to take into account the "blowback" consequences of the killing, wounding, and arresting of civilians and the torture of suspected insurgents. He considers as well the effects of the wounding and deaths of soldiers, recruited into such wars, on those in their home communities, families and social networks. His on-line innovation is to provide students and the reader with a calculator for the network scale-up model of Killworth et al. (1998) to estimate the number of people who know somebody in an "event," such as those killed in the war. "Since the values needed to make these estimates are rapidly changing and somewhat subjective, users can test the effect of different assumptions with this calculator," as noted within the calculator itself. In our review, we highlight the general properties of the scale-up model, of which we shall see more in future articles.
The provision of career information and guidance throughout a citizen's life has become an issue of great importance worldwide, as societies prepare themselves to meet the challenges that the transition to knowledge-based economies represents. An unprecedented research effort has in fact been initiated by the OECD, which has distributed a dedicated questionnaire to 14 countries internationally in order to create a baseline of information on the current state of policy development in career guidance. That same survey instrument has been used by CEDEFOP to gather data on the remaining EU countries, and by the ETF in relation to 11 ACCs . The World Bank has initiated a parallel review in a number of middle-income countries, again using the OECD questionnaire. The thematic review by these key partners will lead to the development of the most extensive harmonised international database ever on guidance policy and practice. This synthesis report summarises the state of play in the development of career information and guidance in both the education and labour market sectors in Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Experts from each of these countries have written a report, structured around the OECD survey and on the basis of their own knowledge of the field, often following extensive consultation with key partners. The broad purpose of this exercise is, first of all, to provide an account of the most recent and most significant developments, trends, challenges and major issues, as well as the strengths and weaknesses, of national career information and guidance systems and policies, in such a way as to render the data susceptible to comparative analysis. Secondly, the synthesis report aims to facilitate the generation of benchmarks, enabling the countries that participated in the review to gauge how well they are doing in career information and guidance provision in relation to other comparable countries, and to facilitate the sharing of good practice. Thirdly, the report should prove to be a useful tool for the development of policy, particularly as ACCs have acknowledged the centrality of lifelong learning in their strategic response to the challenges of integration in the global economy generally, and in the EU more specifically, and the value of career information and guidance throughout life for citizens within that context. The synthesis report consists of six sections, which closely follow the OECD outline in order to facilitate comparison between the different reports once these become available. In the Annex, experts responsible for writing up the detailed country reports have contributed a summary providing an overview of the key elements of the national arrangements for careers information and guidance, outlining the strengths, weaknesses, issues and challenges for their systems. The first section provides a background to the Commission's involvement in the career information and guidance review. It also outlines briefly the geopolitical, economic and cultural contexts of the 11 countries surveyed, particularly in so far as these impact on career guidance provision. The second section focuses on the policy challenges for career information and guidance in terms of national objectives. The latter include the upgrading of the knowledge and skills base of the population, with a view to addressing unemployment, to meeting the demands of knowledge-based economies, and to ensuring that the labour supply and demand are in harmony. Another set of challenges arises from a social policy context that seeks to ensure equitable distribution of education and employment opportunities, with guidance services having a key role to play as active measures in combating early school leaving, facilitating the integration of at-risk groups in both education and the labour market, and reducing poverty. Governments in ACCs – and to a lesser extent, the private sector – have acknowledged the important contribution that career guidance can make in reaching these educational, employment and social objectives, and indeed have launched several initiatives to underscore their commitment to the cause. Nevertheless, while the discourse around career guidance has intensified, it appears that in some cases that discourse has outstripped practice, and plans tend to suffer from a lack of implementation. The third section constitutes the heart of the report, as it considers several aspects that contribute to the more effective delivery of career guidance. An initial focus is the services provided in the education sector. Here attention is given to the extent to which guidance is a stand-alone activity offered infrequently and at key transition and decision-making points, which seems to be the key modality of provision when compared to other models where guidance issues permeate the curriculum. Attention is also given to the initiatives that help to connect the school with the world of work; to the instruments used in delivering guidance; to the groups that are targeted; and to the education sectors where services are non-existent (namely primary schooling), or where they are most present (secondary level), or where they are on the increase (tertiary level, including universities). A second focus is on the employment sector, and the extent to which adults receive guidance as they negotiate occupational and further education and training trajectories in a lifelong learning society. The synthesis report highlights the fact that most adult guidance is offered in the context of public employment services, and that it tends to be remedial in nature, narrowly targeted at unemployed people, with the immediate goal of finding them employment. Other key trends noted are the lack of cross-sectorial collaboration, and the minor involvement of the private sector in the provision of adult guidance, where at best they function as job-brokerage services. One aspect of guidance that has witnessed a great deal of development in most ACCs is the use of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) to ensure more effective and widespread provision of education- and career-related information to the community. There is also a gradual trend to increased input and involvement by stakeholders, and to a shift in the modality of service whereby clients are provided with the resources to assess their needs and aspirations, and to match these with employment opportunities. A key issue cutting across the whole of this section is the lack of a sound evidence base that would permit the evaluation of the effectiveness of the guidance service in reaching its objectives. Section four considers the human and financial resources dedicated to career guidance. In most ACCs, staff involved in offering guidance services have a higher level of education – often in psychology or the humanities – though not all have had specialised pre-service training in the field. Trends include increased opportunities for in-service training, and the gradual professionalisation of career guidance through the specification of entry and qualification routes, the articulation of clearly defined occupational roles, the drawing up of a formal code of ethics, and the formation of associations and networks that may have a research and training function. Most ACCs report that the profession tends to attract women in the main, and that the qualifications and training routes for staff employed in the education sector tend to be different from those for staff engaged in the employment sector. The information about the financial resources allocated to career guidance is extremely sketchy and inconclusive. Most of the budget for careers information and guidance services comes from the state, with few ACCs reporting any substantial investment in the activity by the private sector. Section five synthesises the observations made by experts from the ACCs in terms of the strategic leadership that is exercised in the field of career guidance, and of how this could be strengthened. Despite the fact that there have been several noteworthy developments, a general conclusion that can be drawn is that there is a need for stronger mechanisms to provide coordination and leadership in articulating strategies for lifelong access to guidance within a national policy framework that is both dynamic and adequately resourced. As things stand at the moment, career guidance still tends to be seen by governments as a marginal activity. There is also much scope for a more vigorous role for the private sector and stakeholders, in a field where, curiously, trade union input seems to be particularly weak. Little evaluation is carried out to monitor quality in service provision, or to measure effectiveness, particularly in relation to specific performance targets and outputs. While examples of good practice exist in a number of the countries surveyed, a more robust evidence base is required if guidance is to be provided in a way that responds to the distinct needs of a differentiated clientele. Section six provides a concluding note identifying the main challenges as well as the way forward for career guidance in the countries surveyed. While none of the ACCs on its own holds the key for addressing the most pressing issues that are identified, collectively they certainly provide a rich thesaurus of good practice from which policy-makers and practitioners can draw inspiration. ; peer-reviewed
This paper is framed as a User's Guide to help city officials and city competitiveness practitioners in implementing interventions. This guide aims to support cities in identifying collaborative configurations of actors from the public and private sector along with the management approaches that can help leadership implement interventions to support the city economy.
Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) is an emerging multidisciplinary research area that aims to create an ecosystem of different types of sensors, computers, mobile devices, wireless networks, and software applications for enhanced living environments and occupational health. There are several challenges in the development and implementation of an effective AAL system, such as system architecture, human-computer interaction, ergonomics, usability, and accessibility. There are also social and ethical challenges, such as acceptance by seniors and the privacy and confidentiality that must be a requirement of AAL devices. It is also essential to ensure that technology does not replace human care and is used as a relevant complement. The Internet of Things (IoT) is a paradigm where objects are connected to the Internet and support sensing capabilities. IoT devices should be ubiquitous, recognize the context, and support intelligence capabilities closely related to AAL. Technological advances allow defining new advanced tools and platforms for real-time health monitoring and decision making in the treatment of various diseases. IoT is a suitable approach to building healthcare systems, and it provides a suitable platform for ubiquitous health services, using, for example, portable sensors to carry data to servers and smartphones for communication. Despite the potential of the IoT paradigm and technologies for healthcare systems, several challenges to be overcome still exist. The direction and impact of IoT in the economy are not clearly defined, and there are barriers to the immediate and ubiquitous adoption of IoT products, services, and solutions. Several sources of pollutants have a high impact on indoor living environments. Consequently, indoor air quality is recognized as a fundamental variable to be controlled for enhanced health and well-being. It is critical to note that typically most people occupy more than 90% of their time inside buildings, and poor indoor air quality negatively affects performance and productivity. Research initiatives are required to address air quality issues to adopt legislation and real-time inspection mechanisms to improve public health, not only to monitor public places, schools, and hospitals but also to increase the rigor of building rules. Therefore, it is necessary to use real-time monitoring systems for correct analysis of indoor air quality to ensure a healthy environment in at least public spaces. In most cases, simple interventions provided by homeowners can produce substantial positive impacts on indoor air quality, such as avoiding indoor smoking and the correct use of natural ventilation. An indoor air quality monitoring system helps the detection and improvement of air quality conditions. Local and distributed assessment of chemical concentrations is significant for safety (e.g., detection of gas leaks and monitoring of pollutants) as well as to control heating, ventilation, and HVAC systems to improve energy efficiency. Real-time indoor air quality monitoring provides reliable data for the correct control of building automation systems and should be assumed as a decision support platform on planning interventions for enhanced living environments. However, the monitoring systems currently available are expensive and only allow the collection of random samples that are not provided with time information. Most solutions on the market only allow data consulting limited to device memory and require procedures for downloading and manipulating data with specific software. In this way, the development of innovative environmental monitoring systems based on ubiquitous technologies that allow real-time analysis becomes essential. This thesis resulted in the design and development of IoT architectures using modular and scalable structures for air quality monitoring based on data collected from cost-effective sensors for enhanced living environments. The proposed architectures address several concepts, including acquisition, processing, storage, analysis, and visualization of data. These systems incorporate an alert management Framework that notifies the user in real-time in poor indoor air quality scenarios. The software Framework supports multiple alert methods, such as push notifications, SMS, and e-mail. The real-time notification system offers several advantages when the goal is to achieve effective changes for enhanced living environments. On the one hand, notification messages promote behavioral changes. These alerts allow the building manager to identify air quality problems and plan interventions to avoid unhealthy air quality scenarios. The proposed architectures incorporate mobile computing technologies such as mobile applications that provide ubiquitous air quality data consulting methods s. Also, the data is stored and can be shared with medical teams to support the diagnosis. The state-of-the-art analysis has resulted in a review article on technologies, applications, challenges, opportunities, open-source IoT platforms, and operating systems. This review was significant to define the IoT-based Framework for indoor air quality supervision. The research leads to the development and design of cost-effective solutions based on open-source technologies that support Wi-Fi communication and incorporate several advantages such as modularity, scalability, and easy installation. The results obtained are auspicious, representing a significant contribution to enhanced living environments and occupational health. Particulate matter (PM) is a complex mixture of solid and liquid particles of organic and inorganic substances suspended in the air. Moreover, it is considered the pollutant that affects more people. The most damaging particles to health are ≤PM10 (diameter 10 microns or less), which can penetrate and lodge deep within the lungs, contributing to the risk of developing cardiovascular and respiratory diseases as well as lung cancer. Taking into account the adverse health effects of PM exposure, an IoT architecture for automatic PM monitoring was proposed. The proposed architecture is a PM real-time monitoring system and a decision-making tool. The solution consists of a hardware prototype for data acquisition and a Web Framework developed in .NET for data consulting. This system is based on open-source and technologies, with several advantages compared to existing systems, such as modularity, scalability, low-cost and easy installation. The data is stored in a database developed in SQL SERVER using .NET Web services. The results show the ability of the system to analyze the indoor air quality in real-time and the potential of the Web Framework for the planning of interventions to ensure safe, healthy, and comfortable conditions. Associations of high concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) with low productivity at work and increased health problems are well documented. There is also a clear correlation between high levels of CO2 and high concentrations of pollutants in indoor air. There are sufficient reasons to monitor CO2 and provide real-time notifications to improve occupational health and provide a safe and healthy indoor living environment. Taking into account the significant influence of CO2 for enhanced living environments, a real-time IoT architecture for CO2 monitoring was proposed. CO2 was selected because it is easy to measure and is produced in quantity (by people and combustion equipment). It can be used as an indicator of other pollutants and, therefore, of air quality in general. The solution consists of a hardware prototype for data acquisition environment, a Web software, and a smartphone application for data consulting. The proposed architecture is based on open-source technologies, and the data is stored in a SQL SERVER database. The mobile Framework allows the user not only to consult the latest data collected but also to receive real-time notifications in poor indoor air quality scenarios, and to configure the alerts threshold levels. The results show that the mobile application not only provides easy access to real-time air quality data, but also allows the user to maintain parameter history and provide a history of changes. Consequently, this system allows the user to analyze in a precise and detailed manner the behavior of air quality. Finally, an air quality monitoring solution was implemented, consisting of a hardware prototype that incorporates only the MICS-6814 sensor as the detection unit. This system monitors various air quality parameters such as NH3 (ammonia), CO (carbon monoxide), NO2 (nitrogen dioxide), C3H8 (propane), C4H10 (butane), CH4 (methane), H2 (hydrogen) and C2H5OH (ethanol). The monitoring of the concentrations of these pollutants is essential to provide enhanced living environments. This solution is based on Cloud, and the collected data is sent to the ThingSpeak platform. The proposed Framework combines sensitivity, flexibility, and measurement accuracy in real-time, allowing a significant evolution of current air quality controls. The results show that this system provides easy, intuitive, and fast access to air quality data as well as relevant notifications in poor air quality situations to provide real-time intervention and improve occupational health. These data can be accessed by physicians to support diagnoses and correlate the symptoms and health problems of patients with the environment in which they live. As future work, the results reported in this thesis can be considered as a starting point for the development of a secure system sharing data with health professionals in order to serve as decision support in diagnosis. ; Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) é uma área de investigação multidisciplinar emergente que visa a construção de um ecossistema de diferentes tipos de sensores, microcontroladores, dispositivos móveis, redes sem fios e aplicações de software para melhorar os ambientes de vida e a saúde ocupacional. Existem muitos desafios no desenvolvimento e na implementação de um sistema AAL, como a arquitetura do sistema, interação humano-computador, ergonomia, usabilidade e acessibilidade. Existem também problemas sociais e éticos, como a aceitação por parte dos utilizadores mais vulneráveis e a privacidade e confidencialidade, que devem ser uma exigência de todos os dispositivos AAL. De facto, também é essencial assegurar que a tecnologia não substitua o cuidado humano e seja usada como um complemento essencial. A Internet das Coisas (IoT) é um paradigma em que os objetos estão conectados à Internet e suportam recursos sensoriais. Tendencialmente, os dispositivos IoT devem ser omnipresentes, reconhecer o contexto e ativar os recursos de inteligência ambiente intimamente relacionados ao AAL. Os avanços tecnológicos permitem definir novas ferramentas avançadas e plataformas para monitorização de saúde em tempo real e tomada de decisão no tratamento de várias doenças. A IoT é uma abordagem adequada para construir sistemas de saúde sendo que oferece uma plataforma para serviços de saúde ubíquos, usando, por exemplo, sensores portáteis para recolha e transmissão de dados e smartphones para comunicação. Apesar do potencial do paradigma e tecnologias IoT para o desenvolvimento de sistemas de saúde, muitos desafios continuam ainda por ser resolvidos. A direção e o impacto das soluções IoT na economia não está claramente definido existindo, portanto, barreiras à adoção imediata de produtos, serviços e soluções de IoT. Os ambientes de vida são caracterizados por diversas fontes de poluentes. Consequentemente, a qualidade do ar interior é reconhecida como uma variável fundamental a ser controlada de forma a melhorar a saúde e o bem-estar. É importante referir que tipicamente a maioria das pessoas ocupam mais de 90% do seu tempo no interior de edifícios e que a má qualidade do ar interior afeta negativamente o desempenho e produtividade. É necessário que as equipas de investigação continuem a abordar os problemas de qualidade do ar visando a adoção de legislação e mecanismos de inspeção que atuem em tempo real para a melhoraria da saúde e qualidade de vida, tanto em locais públicos como escolas e hospitais e residências particulares de forma a aumentar o rigor das regras de construção de edifícios. Para tal, é necessário utilizar mecanismos de monitorização em tempo real de forma a possibilitar a análise correta da qualidade do ambiente interior para garantir ambientes de vida saudáveis. Na maioria dos casos, intervenções simples que podem ser executadas pelos proprietários ou ocupantes da residência podem produzir impactos positivos substanciais na qualidade do ar interior, como evitar fumar em ambientes fechados e o uso correto de ventilação natural. Um sistema de monitorização e avaliação da qualidade do ar interior ajuda na deteção e na melhoria das condições ambiente. A avaliação local e distribuída das concentrações químicas é significativa para a segurança (por exemplo, deteção de fugas de gás e supervisão dos poluentes) bem como para controlar o aquecimento, ventilação, e sistemas de ar condicionado (HVAC) visando a melhoria da eficiência energética. A monitorização em tempo real da qualidade do ar interior fornece dados fiáveis para o correto controlo de sistemas de automação de edifícios e deve ser assumida com uma plataforma de apoio à decisão no que se refere ao planeamento de intervenções para ambientes de vida melhorados. No entanto, os sistemas de monitorização atualmente disponíveis são de alto custo e apenas permitem a recolha de amostras aleatórias que não são providas de informação temporal. A maioria das soluções disponíveis no mercado permite apenas a acesso ao histórico de dados que é limitado à memória do dispositivo e exige procedimentos de download e manipulação de dados com software proprietário. Desta forma, o desenvolvimento de sistemas inovadores de monitorização ambiente baseados em tecnologias ubíquas e computação móvel que permitam a análise em tempo real torna-se essencial. A Tese resultou na definição e no desenvolvimento de arquiteturas para monitorização da qualidade do ar baseadas em IoT. Os métodos propostos são de baixo custo e recorrem a estruturas modulares e escaláveis para proporcionar ambientes de vida melhorados. As arquiteturas propostas abordam vários conceitos, incluindo aquisição, processamento, armazenamento, análise e visualização de dados. Os métodos propostos incorporam Frameworks de gestão de alertas que notificam o utilizador em tempo real e de forma ubíqua quando a qualidade do ar interior é deficiente. A estrutura de software suporta vários métodos de notificação, como notificações remotas para smartphone, SMS (Short Message Service) e email. O método usado para o envio de notificações em tempo real oferece várias vantagens quando o objetivo é alcançar mudanças efetivas para ambientes de vida melhorados. Por um lado, as mensagens de notificação promovem mudanças de comportamento. De facto, estes alertas permitem que o gestor do edifício e os ocupantes reconheçam padrões da qualidade do ar e permitem também um correto planeamento de intervenções de forma evitar situações em que a qualidade do ar é deficiente. Por outro lado, o sistema proposto incorpora tecnologias de computação móvel, como aplicações móveis, que fornecem acesso omnipresente aos dados de qualidade do ar e, consequentemente, fornecem soluções completas para análise de dados. Além disso, os dados são armazenados e podem ser partilhados com equipas médicas para ajudar no diagnóstico. A análise do estado da arte resultou na elaboração de um artigo de revisão sobre as tecnologias, aplicações, desafios, plataformas e sistemas operativos que envolvem a criação de arquiteturas IoT. Esta revisão foi um trabalho fundamental na definição das arquiteturas propostas baseado em IoT para a supervisão da qualidade do ar interior. Esta pesquisa conduz a um desenvolvimento de arquiteturas IoT de baixo custo com base em tecnologias de código aberto que operam como um sistema Wi-Fi e suportam várias vantagens, como modularidade, escalabilidade e facilidade de instalação. Os resultados obtidos são muito promissores, representando uma contribuição significativa para ambientes de vida melhorados e saúde ocupacional. O material particulado (PM) é uma mistura complexa de partículas sólidas e líquidas de substâncias orgânicas e inorgânicas suspensas no ar e é considerado o poluente que afeta mais pessoas. As partículas mais prejudiciais à saúde são as ≤PM10 (diâmetro de 10 micrómetros ou menos), que podem penetrar e fixarem-se dentro dos pulmões, contribuindo para o risco de desenvolver doenças cardiovasculares e respiratórias, bem como de cancro do pulmão. Tendo em consideração os efeitos negativos para a saúde da exposição ao PM foi desenvolvido numa primeira fase uma arquitetura IoT para monitorização automática dos níveis de PM. Esta arquitetura é um sistema que permite monitorização de PM em tempo real e uma ferramenta de apoio à tomada de decisão. A solução é composta por um protótipo de hardware para aquisição de dados e um portal Web desenvolvido em .NET para consulta de dados. Este sistema é baseado em tecnologias de código aberto com várias vantagens em comparação aos sistemas existentes, como modularidade, escalabilidade, baixo custo e fácil instalação. Os dados são armazenados numa base de dados desenvolvida em SQL SERVER e são enviados com recurso a serviços Web. Os resultados mostram a capacidade do sistema de analisar em tempo real a qualidade do ar interior e o potencial da Framework Web para o planeamento de intervenções com o objetivo de garantir condições seguras, saudáveis e confortáveis. Associações de altas concentrações de dióxido de carbono (CO2) com défice de produtividade no trabalho e aumento de problemas de saúde encontram-se bem documentadas. Existe também uma correlação evidente entre altos níveis de CO2 e altas concentrações de poluentes no ar interior. Tendo em conta a influência significativa do CO2 para a construção de ambientes de vida melhorados desenvolveu-se uma solução de monitorização em tempo real de CO2 com base na arquitetura de IoT. A arquitetura proposta permite também o envio de notificações em tempo real para melhorar a saúde ocupacional e proporcionar um ambiente de vida interior seguro e saudável. O CO2 foi selecionado, pois é fácil de medir e é produzido em quantidade (por pessoas e equipamentos de combustão). Assim, pode ser usado como um indicador de outros poluentes e, portanto, da qualidade do ar em geral. O método proposto é composto por um protótipo de hardware para aquisição de dados, um software Web e uma aplicação smartphone para consulta de dados. Esta arquitetura é baseada em tecnologias de código aberto e os dados recolhidos são armazenados numa base de dados SQL SERVER. A Framework móvel permite não só consultar em tempo real os últimos dados recolhidos, receber notificações com o objetivo de avisar o utilizador quando a qualidade do ar está deficiente, mas também para configurar alertas. Os resultados mostram que a Framework móvel fornece não apenas acesso fácil aos dados da qualidade do ar em tempo real, mas também permite ao utilizador manter o histórico de parâmetros. Assim este sistema permite ao utilizador analisar de maneira precisa e detalhada o comportamento da qualidade do ar interior. Por último, é proposta uma arquitetura para monitorização de vários parâmetros da qualidade do ar, como NH3 (amoníaco), CO (monóxido de carbono), NO2 (dióxido de azoto), C3H8 (propano), C4H10 (butano), CH4 (metano), H2 (hidrogénio) e C2H5OH (etanol). Esta arquitetura é composta por um protótipo de hardware que incorpora unicamente o sensor MICS-6814 como unidade de deteção. O controlo das concentrações destes poluentes é extremamente relevante para proporcionar ambientes de vida melhorados. Esta solução tem base na Cloud sendo que os dados recolhidos são enviados para a plataforma ThingSpeak. Esta Framework combina sensibilidade, flexibilidade e precisão de medição em tempo real, permitindo uma evolução significativa dos atuais sistemas de monitorização da qualidade do ar. Os resultados mostram que este sistema fornece acesso fácil, intuitivo e rápido aos dados de qualidade do ar bem como notificações essenciais em situações de qualidade do ar deficiente de forma a planear intervenções em tempo útil e melhorar a saúde ocupacional. Esses dados podem ser acedidos pelos médicos para apoiar diagnósticos e correlacionar os sintomas e problemas de saúde dos pacientes com o ambiente em que estes vivem. Como trabalho futuro, os resultados reportados nesta Tese podem ser considerados um ponto de partida para o desenvolvimento de um sistema seguro para partilha de dados com profissionais de saúde de forma a servir de suporte à decisão no diagnóstico.
