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Intro -- FEDERAL DEBT, INTEREST COSTS AND THE DEBT LIMIT -- FEDERAL DEBT, INTEREST COSTS AND THE DEBT LIMIT -- Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- Chapter 1: FEDERAL DEBT AND INTEREST COSTS -- INTRODUCTION -- SUMMARY -- Debt Held by the Public -- Other Measures of Federal Debt -- Interest Payments and Receipts -- DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC -- Trends in Debt Held by the Public -- Types and Amounts of Treasury Debt Held by the Public -- Marketable Securities -- Auctions -- Borrowing Schedule -- Bills -- Notes -- Bonds -- Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities -- Maturity -- Seasonality -- Nonmarketable Securities -- Savings Bonds -- EE/E Bonds -- Other Types of Savings Bonds -- State and Local Government Series -- Thrift Savings Plan -- Zero-Coupon Bonds and Other Nonmarketable Securities -- Reasons for Borrowing Other than Budget Deficits -- Credit Programs -- Student Loans -- Purchases of Mortgage-Backed Securities -- Supplementary Financing Program -- Other Factors Affecting the Treasury's Borrowing -- Ownership of Federal Debt Held by the Public -- Domestic Ownership -- Foreign Ownership -- U.S. Debt Compared with that of Other Countries -- OTHER MEASURES OF FEDERAL DEBT -- Debt Held by the Public Net of Financial Assets -- Cash -- Credit Programs -- Gross Federal Debt -- Debt Subject to Limit -- What the Debt Limit Covers -- Options for the Treasury When Debt Approaches the Limit -- Suspending Sales of Nonmarketable Securities -- Trimming or Delaying Auctions of Marketable Securities -- Suspending Issuance of Maturing Cash Management Bills in the Supplementary Financing Program -- Suspending Flows and Redeeming Securities in Government Accounts -- Swapping Debt with the Federal Financing Bank -- Consequences of Having a Limit on Debt -- INTEREST PAYMENTS AND RECEIPTS

The Genie Out of the Bottle Safe State Muddy Terminology Understanding the Public Debt What Is a Trillion Dollars? Basic Concepts of the Federal Government Debt John Maynard Keynes and Democracy in Deficit The Debt of States and Local Governments Adding Up and Taking Stock Lessons from Europe Sovereign Bankruptcy The Debt Problem Predates the Great Recession State Greed The Hidden Welfare State Federal Social Spending Two Welfare States The Look and Feel of the Welfare State Convergence Rational Ignorance Unsustainable Future Uncle Sam's Solvency in Doubt Official Forecasts of Insolvency The Ghosts in the Closet The Naked Emperor The Emperor's Praetorians Coercive Taxes Voluntary Taxes in Fiscal Orthodoxy: We Ate It Together Doubts About Fiscal Orthodoxy Who ate the money? Will Americans Pay? The Sovereign's Bankers 'A True Providence for the State' Who Are the Real Bankers of the State? The Limits of Honest Borrowing Reducing Expenditures: Mission Impossible? The Miracle of the Loaves and Fishes All Expenditures Are Essential Reagan's Failure Questioning the State's Missions Inflating the Debt Away The Cause of Inflation Default by Inflation Could the US Government Pull the Trick? Contagion: When the Emperor Coughs Contagion Fuels Recessions Default Risks Contagion The Least Bad of All Possible Worlds Repudiation or Open Default Stealth Default The Cost of Doing Nothing The Benefits of Open Default Wishes and Reality Opportunities Tough Times Ahead Another Possible World The Fourth Alternative

Cover -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Executive Summary -- Ch 1. A Decade of Debt -- I. Introduction -- II. Surges in Public Debt -- III. The Financial Crash-Sovereign Debt Crisis Sequence -- IV. Debt and Growth -- V. The Aftermath of High Debt: The 1930s and World War II -- VI. Conclusion -- Ch 2. Chartbook of Country Histories of Debt, Default, and Financial Crises -- I. Preamble -- II. Key to Figures and Methodology Notes -- III. Debt and Crises: Main Themes -- References -- About the Authors -- Index.

This book studies the sustainability and optimality of public debt under different scenarios: the closed economy, the small open economy, and a two-country setting. Sustainability refers to the existence and the stability of the long-run equilibrium. Optimality relates to the path of public debt that maximizes discounted utility. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the Solow model, the overlapping generations model and the infinite horizon model. The government can follow different strategies, it either fixes the deficit ratio or the tax rate. As a result, a fixed deficit ratio generally can be sustained. By contrast, a fixed tax rate generally cannot be sustained. Depending on the chosen fiscal strategy, there exists either an optimal deficit ratio or an optimal tax rate that maximizes the sum of consumption and government purchases per capita.

Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Data And Definitions -- A. Data -- B. Private Deleveraging: Definitions And Statistics -- III. Stylized Facts -- IV. Private Deleveraging In Modern History -- A. Methodology -- B. What Happens Before, During, And After Private Deleveraging? -- V. Tackling Causality -- A. The Ipwra Method -- B. Estimating The Causal Impact Of Private Deleveraging -- VI. Concluding Remarks -- References -- ANNEXES -- 1. Data: Country Coverage -- 2. Private Debt And Leverage Flows -- 3. Deleveraging Episodes By Income Groups -- 4. Additional Figures And Tables -- FIGURES -- 1. Advanced Economies: Gross Debt -- 2. Spain: Gross Debt -- 3. Private Debt in the Global Debt Database -- 4. Number of Deleveraging Episode -- 5. Probability of Deleveraging by Decades -- 6. Incidence of Private Deleveraging, 1950-2016 -- 7. Macroeconomic Dynamics During Private Deleveraging -- 8. Sources of Change in Public Debt During Private Deleveraging in Advanced Countries -- 9. "Growthless" vs "High Growth" Deleveraging -- 10. "Post-GFC" vs. "Pre-GFC" Deleveraging Episodes -- 11. Deleveraging Episodes -- 12. Cumulative Impact of Private Deleveraging on GDP and Public Debt -- TABLES -- 1. Average Features of Private Deleveraging Episodes -- 2. Private Deleveraging Episodes: Crisis vs. Non-crisis -- 3. Average Macro-Economic Conditions during Normal Times -- 4. Determinants of Private Deleveraging -- 5. Impact of Private Deleveraging on Growth and Public Debt (IPWRA).

This paper proposes a fiscal policy framework we call Public Debt Targeting. The framework seeks to smooth primary spending over the business cycle while remaining consistent with public debt sustainability. Under the proposed framework, a government announces a commitment to a public debt band trajectory over the medium term, while sequentially announcing primary expenditures for the next budget cycle, which are determined recursively based on the history of shocks. Public debt targeting differs from a structural balance rule in that it internalizes the effect of the deterioration in creditwo

The global financial crisis has put considerable pressure on public finances, particularly on government debt. Public debt in many countries of the world have increased in recent years to levels that were not registered by the end of the Second World War, facing today with a high risk regarding fiscal sustainability.Debt portfolio is usually the largest financial portfolio of a state, with a complex structure that can generate high risks that may affect public balance and financial stability of the country. Thus, proper management of public debt must become a priority for both the creditor and debtor countries. This paper aims to highlight the importance of effective management of government debt and to make a brief assessment of Romania's public debt structure and dynamic.