Democracy, demography and growth
Digitised version produced by the EUI Library and made available online in 2020.
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Digitised version produced by the EUI Library and made available online in 2020.
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In order to be able to analyse the incentives for rural municipalities to support an offensive politics on nature preservation, a demographic model, with focus on migration, is built up. The demographic model is to integrated into LINE, a regional macro economic model at municipality level for Denmark. By that, it is possible to carry out model calculations to judge upon the effects from demographic changes on disposable income employment, production etc. The focus is upon people''s incentives to move to municipalities with a "green profile", and the effects of this.
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The paper examines the effects of demographic change on federal, state and local governments in Germany with a focus on the expenditure side to answer the question, whether demographic change will induce vertical fiscal expenditure imbalances. We present estimates of the impact of demographic change on public spending based on a decomposition of expenditures into almost 30 categories (functions). Our results suggest that demographic change will indeed result in significant vertical expenditure imbalances between the federal and the subnational government sector as well as within the subnational government sector. In addition, the estimates show that the structure of expenditures by function has to be adjusted considerably in order to avoid deficits as demographically induced increases in expenditures in some important functions, such as pension payments, have to be counterbalanced by exploiting potential savings that arise from demographic change in other functions.
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This paper presents new evidence on how demography affects attitudes toward democracy and policy preferences. The empirical analysis disentangles age effects from cohort effects and separates their role from economic and political factors that shape political preferences in a given period, using survey responses for more than 200,000 individual observations from 90 countries. The results show that the support for democracy increases with age and, at the same time, depends on cohort-specific factors that are related to past experiences with democracy and socioeconomic status. The findings shed new light on the role of demography in terms of life-cycle and cohort effects for political attitudes.
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Among different important issues, which are discussed in Political Demography the issue of global ageing becomes more and more pressing every year. It is sufficient to take into account the point that within two forthcoming decades a rapid global increase in the number of retirement-age persons will lead to its doubling within this fairly small historical period. The concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present volume of the Yearbook (which is the fifth in the series) is subtitled 'Political Demography & Global Ageing'. It brings together a number of interesting articles by scholars from Europe, Asia, and America. They examine global ageing from a variety of perspectives. This issue of the Yearbook consists of two main sections: (I) Aspects of Political Demography; (II) Facing Population Ageing. We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
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This paper discusses the general nature of current demographic trends. The purpose is to offer a more nuanced view of part of the world's population development. In particular, I will show that the demographic transition, while similar in developed and developing countries, gives rise to an emerging demographic cleavage between developed and developing countries. It is not unlikely that this emerging cleavage could change the conditions for international relations in very substantial ways, and possibly give way to a new world order.The focus of this paper is on demographic changes in the Mediterranean region. I shall contrast demographic developments on both the southern and northern shores of the Mediterranean Sea. The countries included on the European side, defined here as Southern Europe, are France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. The countries constituting North Africa are Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunis. The purpose of the comparison is to show how similar demographic trends in North Africa and in Southern Europe give rise to sometimes very different general developments. These opposite developments are, in turn, likely to affect the general performance (political and economic) of the countries in the region. They could be beneficial if used to our advantage; if ignored, they are potentially dangerous and could be a source of conflict and tension in the region.
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The National Party came into power in 1948 with an election promise to safeguard the political, economic and social interests of minority whites In South Africa. Racial segregation was their major strategy for ensuring the supremacy of white racial group in the country. By the mid-1950s, major pieces of legislation which formed the pillars of apartheid such as the Immorality Act, Population Registration Act, Reservation of Separate Amenities Act and Black Education Act, were firmly in place. Apartheid policies were implemented with zeal by the minority white government to the social and economic detriment of the blacks who constitute the majority In South Africa. The dream of Institutionalized racial segregation met with Intensive Internal resistance and International pressures, and in 1991, the ruling National Party formally renounced apartheid and declared a commitment to the creation of non-raclal democracy In South Africa. By the end of the 1940s, distinct demographic regimes existed In South Africa with potentials for maximum exposure to alternative trends. The aim of this paper is to show briefly how these different regimes reacted to the realities of the Implementation of apartheid with particular reference to mortality, fertility and reproductive behavior, and population activities.
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Europe will be challenged by demographic changes over the next few decades, even under favourable assumptions about fertility and migration, but the economic eects are not yet fully understood. This paper studies the eects of population ageing on economic growth, capital deepening and robotisation in 27 European Union (EU) labour markets. First, we econometrically assess the eects of ageing and potential labour market shortages on growth. Second, we test the hypothesis of whether ageing leads to faster adoption of new technologies. We distinguish between various capital asset types, including non- ICT and ICT capital, tangible and intangible capital and the adoption of robots. The analysis is based on Eurostat, the European Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and International Federation of Robotics (IFR) data. Results indicate that ageing and demographic changes might result in secular stagnation, which decelerates the adoption of new technologies.
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The "Future Directions of Spatial Demography" specialist meeting (Santa Barbara, 2011) brought together 41 specialists from multiple disciplines to discuss the future of spatial demography. Whereas the majority of attendees were geographers and sociologists, many other disciplines were represented, including anthropology, economics, epidemiology, health economics, and political science. This report outlines the primary outcomes of the meeting, including recommendations about training-related activities and cross-site collaborations, and activities that promote spatial demography within the wider academy. The report follows the structure of the meeting, focusing on: 1. The state of the science in spatial demography2. Emergent geospatial data and measurement issues3. Spatial statistical methods4. A synthesis of challenges
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International audience ; Among different important issues, which are discussed in Political Demography theissue of global ageing becomes more and more pressing every year. It is sufficient to takeinto account the point that within two forthcoming decades a rapid global increase in thenumber of retirement-age persons will lead to its doubling within this fairly small historicalperiod. The concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developingcountries and it has turned into a global issue. In forthcoming decades the populationageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future societycharacteristics and the direction of technological development.The present volume of the Yearbook (which is the fifth in the series) is subtitled 'PoliticalDemography & Global Ageing'. It brings together a number of interesting articlesby scholars from Europe, Asia, and America. They examine global ageing from a varietyof perspectives.This issue of the Yearbook consists of two main sections: (I) Aspects of PoliticalDemography; (II) Facing Population Ageing.We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians,as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
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International audience ; Among different important issues, which are discussed in Political Demography theissue of global ageing becomes more and more pressing every year. It is sufficient to takeinto account the point that within two forthcoming decades a rapid global increase in thenumber of retirement-age persons will lead to its doubling within this fairly small historicalperiod. The concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developingcountries and it has turned into a global issue. In forthcoming decades the populationageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future societycharacteristics and the direction of technological development.The present volume of the Yearbook (which is the fifth in the series) is subtitled 'PoliticalDemography & Global Ageing'. It brings together a number of interesting articlesby scholars from Europe, Asia, and America. They examine global ageing from a varietyof perspectives.This issue of the Yearbook consists of two main sections: (I) Aspects of PoliticalDemography; (II) Facing Population Ageing.We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians,as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.
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International audience ; [With the emergence of nuclear power in the 1950s, the temptation was strong to analyze the world political situation exclusively on the access of states to atomic power. The geopolitical analysis could then be reduced to a dichotomy between countries with nuclear fire and others and neglecting the importance of strategic variables, such as natural resources, socio-political structures or demographic trends. But history has shown that a country can have nuclear weapons and decay from within.The study of the political influence of the States, the conduct of various contemporary conflicts show that geopolitical must return to its sources. The first French strategist geographer, Sébastien Vauban (1633-1707), insists in his project of a royal tithe (1706), the importance of the population as one of the dynamic factors to account for the situation policy. The evolution of the weight of the populations in their national and international environment and movements that affect the causes and consequences involved many political and geopolitical events.] ; Avec l'émergence de l'arme nucléaire dans les années 1950, la tentation a été forte d'analyser la situation politique mondiale exclusivement en fonction de l'accès des Etats à la puissance atomique. L'analyse géopolitique pouvait alors se réduire à une dichotomie entre les pays possédant le feu nucléaire et les autres et négliger l'importance des variables stratégiques, comme les ressources naturelles, les structures politico-sociales ou les évolutions démographiques. Mais l'histoire a montré qu'un pays peut posséder l'arme nucléaire et se décomposer de l'intérieur. L'étude de l'influence politique des Etats, le déroulement de différents conflits contemporains mettent en évidence que la géopolitique doit revenir à ses sources. Le premier stratège-géographe français, Sébastien Vauban (1633-1707), insiste, dans son Projet d'une dîme royale (1706), sur l'importance de la population comme l'un des facteurs dynamiques permettant de rendre compte de la situation politique. L'évolution du poids des populations dans leur environnement national et international et les mouvements qui les affectent participent des causes et conséquences de nombreux phénomènes politiques et géopolitiques.
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International audience ; [With the emergence of nuclear power in the 1950s, the temptation was strong to analyze the world political situation exclusively on the access of states to atomic power. The geopolitical analysis could then be reduced to a dichotomy between countries with nuclear fire and others and neglecting the importance of strategic variables, such as natural resources, socio-political structures or demographic trends. But history has shown that a country can have nuclear weapons and decay from within.The study of the political influence of the States, the conduct of various contemporary conflicts show that geopolitical must return to its sources. The first French strategist geographer, Sébastien Vauban (1633-1707), insists in his project of a royal tithe (1706), the importance of the population as one of the dynamic factors to account for the situation policy. The evolution of the weight of the populations in their national and international environment and movements that affect the causes and consequences involved many political and geopolitical events.] ; Avec l'émergence de l'arme nucléaire dans les années 1950, la tentation a été forte d'analyser la situation politique mondiale exclusivement en fonction de l'accès des Etats à la puissance atomique. L'analyse géopolitique pouvait alors se réduire à une dichotomie entre les pays possédant le feu nucléaire et les autres et négliger l'importance des variables stratégiques, comme les ressources naturelles, les structures politico-sociales ou les évolutions démographiques. Mais l'histoire a montré qu'un pays peut posséder l'arme nucléaire et se décomposer de l'intérieur. L'étude de l'influence politique des Etats, le déroulement de différents conflits contemporains mettent en évidence que la géopolitique doit revenir à ses sources. Le premier stratège-géographe français, Sébastien Vauban (1633-1707), insiste, dans son Projet d'une dîme royale (1706), sur l'importance de la population comme l'un des facteurs dynamiques permettant de rendre compte de ...
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In the annual Global Risks report presented at the World Economic Forum (Davos) in January 2012, its authors include demographic trends among what they identify as "three distinct constellations of risks" or "Seeds of Dystopia", which they define as the "opposite of a utopia" or "a place where life is full of hardship and devoid of hope". What I have elsewhere called "demodystopias" would define a literary subgenre which, along the lines of the classical works by Wells, Huxley and Orwell, appeared in the late 1960s in response to fears of a "world population explosion". Surprisingly perhaps, in recent years it has also come to represent serious concern in the political arena. From ecology activism to neoliberal discourse, in a setting of economic crisis, present population trends are ever more frequently presented as a real threat to the future of humanity. This new revival of demodystopias is related with the transformation by the neoliberal discourse of the concept of "resilience" as a new way of dealing with risk and managing populations ; A l'informe anual Global Risks presentat al World Economic Forum (Davos) al gener de 2012, els seus autors incloïen les tendències demogràfiques entre el que ells identificaven com "tres diferents constel·lacions de riscs" o "Llavors de Distopia", que definien com a oposada a utopia, o "el lloc on la vida és plena de dificultats I sense esperança". El que en altres llocs he anomenat "demodistopies" pot definir un subgènere literari que, seguint la tradició dels treballs clàssics de Wells, Huxley i Orwell, va aparèixer a darreries dels anys seixanta, com a resposta a les pors de "l'explosió de la població mundial". Sorprenentment en els darrers anys, aquesta visió ha tornar al medi polític. Des de l'activisme ecologista fins al discurs neoliberal, a partir de la crisi econòmica, l'evolució de la població és presentada cada cop més com una amenaça per al futur de la humanitat. Aquest retorn de les demodistopies està relacionat amb la transformacióper part del discurs neoliberal del concepte de "resiliència" com una nova forma d'afrontar els riscos i la governabilitat de la població. ; En el informe anual Global Risks presentado en el World Economic Forum (Davos ) en enero de 2012 , sus autores incluían las tendencias demográficas entre lo que ellos identificaban como "tres diferentes constelaciones de riesgos" o " Semillas de Distopía" , que definían como opuesta a utopía , o "el lugar donde la vida está llena de dificultades y sin esperanza" . Lo que en otros lugares he llamado "demodistopias " puede ser definido como un subgénero literario que, siguiendo la tradición de los trabajos clásicos de Wells, Huxley y Orwell, apareció a finales de los años sesenta, como respuesta a los miedos de "la explosión de la población mundial". Sorprendentemente en los últimos años, esta visión ha vuelto al medio político. Desde el activismo ecologista hasta el discurso neoliberal , a partir de la crisis económica, la evolución de la población es presentada cada vez más como una amenaza para el futuro de la humanidad. Este retorno de las demodistopias está relacionado con la transformación del concepto de "resiliencia " por parte del discurso neoliberal como una nueva forma de afrontar los riesgos y la gobernabilidad de la población.
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Indonesia, with the spirit and principles of a just democracy, has given birth to various political parties and paradigms that are believed to be a solution in solving various problems faced by the Indonesian people lately such as Corruption, Intolerance, radicalism, terrorism and various social problems can be said as a complex cases, social anxiety in Indonesia lately, really need a solution that can solve the problem without skating a particular religion. The presence of the Indonesian solidarity party, chaired by Grace Natalie lately, known as a Christian female political figure with a relatively young age in the midst of the world's largest Muslim majority population, political battles in various efforts to gain public support, became the biggest challenge for the Indonesian Solidarity Party. The contribution of the Indonesian Solidarity Party in fighting for the aspirations of minority religions greatly influences the strength of the Indonesian Solidarity Party, besides having to fight for the support of the Muslim population with religious doctrines that do not provide space for non-Muslims to be elected as leaders. The presence of the Indonesian Solidarity Party is believed by some support groups to be a new enthusiasm to participate in resolving the problems currently being faced by the Indonesian people. crucial by not considering the religious values that exist in Indonesia in conveying political narratives and maneuvers, such as unconditional rejection of Sharia Law, rejecting polygamy as a social problem, to invite debate and get a serious reaction for some Indonesian Muslim groups. In this paper, is an attempt to dissect the various paradigms and narratives of the Indonesian Solidarity Party in political communication as a whole, analyze the principles of the State concept, and examine the concept of Islam in depth, comprehensively, and be able to answer the socio-political discourse lately.
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