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Abstract. When calculating the risk of railway or road users of being killed by a natural hazard, one has to calculate a temporal spatial probability, i.e. the probability of a vehicle being in the path of the falling mass when the mass falls, or the expected number of affected vehicles in case such of an event. To calculate this, different methods are used in the literature, and, most of the time, they consider only the dimensions of the falling mass or the dimensions of the vehicles. Some authors do however consider both dimensions at the same time, and the use of their approach is recommended. Finally, a method considering an impact on the front of the vehicle is discussed.

Economic impact studies overestimate the direct impact of an airport on travelers' expenditures. This occurs for two reasons. First, impact studies assume that the number of visitors traveling to the local area via the airport would fall to zero in the absence of the airport. Second, impact studies implicitly assume that local residents would continue to travel outside the local area in the same numbers as when the local airport is available. In other words, it is assumed that the demand for travel into the local area by visitors is perfectly elastic with respect to the time and money costs of travel, while the demand for travel by local residents is perfectly inelastic with respect to these variables. This paper develops a methodology that avoids both of these sources of error by explicitly incorporating air travel demand into the analysis. The methodology is applied to Tampa International Airport for the year 1996. It is shown that using the standard methodology would have resulted in an estimate of direct impacts sixteen times the size of the estimate made by using the methodology of this paper.

Acid rain is a serious environmental problem that occurs in many places around the world. Acid deposition can form as a result of the oxidation of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide gases that are released into the atmosphere. These gases (SO2, NOx) are the primary causes of acid rain, and physically and chemically react with water, oxygen, and other chemicals to form other acidic compounds such as sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and nitric acid (HNO3). Acid rain can form in the presence of ozone and carbon dioxide as well. Sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and nitric acid (HNO3) affect biological systems like plants directly. This paper provides information about acid formation and the direct impacts of acid rain on plants. Through a survey of the literature, we assessed the direct effects of acid rain on leaf chlorophyll, growth, and yield parameters on crops that have the highest economic importance in Afghanistan. (e.g., wheat, rice). For the analysis of the data, linear regression was applied. The results showed that plant parameters (dependent variables) such as leaf length, leaf area, chlorophyll content, leaf dry weight, and weight of 1000 seeds of wheat; leaf area; net-photosynthetic rate; and leaf dry weight of rice can be significantly affected by pH treatments (pH 5.5–2.5) (independent variables). The trends of the analysis determined significant negative effects of acid rain on plant parameters. To reduce the impacts of acid rain on plants, it is necessary to apply adaptation and mitigation strategies.

This empirical study examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and poverty reduction using some control variables in the context of Pakistan. The time-series data has been used to cover the period 1985–2016. The study found robust results of co-integration between FDI and poverty reduction in the long-run analysis. Moreover, to find the correlation between FDI and poverty reduction, this study used autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to check the co-integration between FDI and poverty. The short-run and long-run analysis results indicate that FDI, the mobile phone users (per 100 inhabitants), life expectancy, and government expenditure contributes to poverty reduction. The results of variance decomposition method showed that bidirectional causality found between FDI and poverty reduction or both are Granger cause of each other. The ratio of inflow of FDI is not too high in Pakistan, so government with scared financial resources should improve the policies regarding FDI inflow. This analysis suggests policymakers divert their attention towards the betterment of institutions, establish FDI attractive inflow trading zones like other emerging economies.

AbstractDevelopment zones constitute a special type of place‐based policy that has been implemented worldwide. As an essential economic development engine, Chinese National Economic and Technological Development Zones (NETDZs) are perceived as a successful example. However, few studies have looked into the channel effects at work in development zones concerning industrialization and urbanization, despite the crucial nature of such effects with regard to sustainable development of development zones. Following a brief description of NETDZs and their theoretical mechanisms with urban economic performance, industrialization, and urbanization, this study used a simultaneous equation model to generate empirical evidence of the impact of the establishment of NETDZs on urban economic performance and its channel effects through industrialization and urbanization. The results confirm that NETDZs exerts a positive and significant impact on urban economic performance, and NETDZs also show indirect influence in urban growth through urbanization. Although significant and positive intermediation of industrialization remains invalid, foreign direct investment and investment in fixed assets are still crucial in Chinese industrialization. Both industrialization and urbanization play an important role in Chinese urban economic development. Meanwhile, compared with eastern regions more influenced by urbanization, industrialization still acts as a major impetus in inland China.

This study explores the mechanisms of how social movements' activities influence public policy by focusing on the role of protest characteristics. By applying an event history analysis to the data on India's anti-privatization movement activity between 1990-2003, I demonstrate that favorable policy outcomes are more likely in cases where the movement uses large or economically disruptive protests. Although privatization policy is primarily dependent on the financial situation of the enterprise, protests against privatization had significant direct impact on policy. The results of this study allow for the argument that threatening rather than persuasive tactics offer an explanation of the direct impact of social movement actions.

This study explores the mechanisms of how social movements' activities influence public policy by focusing on the role of protest characteristics. By applying an event history analysis to the data on India's anti-privatization movement activity between 1990-2003, I demonstrate that favorable policy outcomes are more likely in cases where the movement uses large or economically disruptive protests. Although privatization policy is primarily dependent on the financial situation of the enterprise, protests against privatization had significant direct impact on policy. The results of this study allow for the argument that threatening rather than persuasive tactics offer an explanation of the direct impact of social movement actions. Tables, Figures, References. Adapted from the source document.

This paper establishes the methodological foundations for a systematic analysis of the direct impact of the media on the vote. We propose to combine two different approaches: the 'linkage' approach, which relates media coverage to voting intentions; & the 'attentiveness' approach, which compares the vote choice of those who pay the most & least attention to the news. We apply these two methods to the 1997 Canadian election. We find support for the hypothesis that, during the election campaign, voting intentions for a party increased (decreased) when media coverage of that party was systematically positive (or negative), among those who followed the news & decided how to vote during the campaign, but we find no evidence that, on election day, those more attentive to the news voted differently from those less attentive. We conclude that the media temporarily moved voting intentions during the course of the 1997 Canadian election but that they appear to have had no direct impact on the final vote. 2 Tables, 2 Figures, 1 Appendix, 36 References. Adapted from the source document.

This report develops a conceivable mathematical model for the transmission and spread of COVID-19 in Romania. Understanding the early spread dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures in the first wave of infection is crucial for assessing and evaluating the potential for sustained transmission occurring in the second wave. The main aim of the study was to emphasize the impact of control measures and the rate of case detection in slowing the spread of the disease. Non pharmaceutical control interventions include government actions, public reactions, and other measures. The methodology consists of an empirical model, taking into consideration the generic framework of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Epidemic–Macroeconomic Model, and incorporates the effect of interventions through a multivalued parameter, a stepwise constant varying during different phases of the interventions designed to capture their impact on the model. The model is mathematically consistent and presents various simulation results using best-estimated parameter values. The model can be easily updated later in response to real-world alterations, for example, the easing of restrictions. We hope that our simulation results may guide local authorities to make timely, correct decisions for public health and risk assessment.

Klima- und wetterbedingte Extremereignisse unterbrechen immer wieder unseren Alltag. Sie gefährden die menschliche Gesundheit sowie Sicherheit und Wohlstand. Mit fortschreitendem Klimawandel ändern sich Häufigkeit und Intensität dieser Wetterextreme, mit nachteiligen ökonomischen und gesellschaftlichen Auswirkungen. Um diese zu verringern, müssen diese verstanden und adäquate Anpassungsmaßnahmen entworfen werden. Diese Dissertation untersucht verschiedene gesellschaftliche Auswirkungen von Wetterextremen, die aufgrund des fortschreitenden Klimawandels den öffentlichen und den privaten Sektor zunehmend belasten. Zunächst wird gezeigt, dass Hochwasserschäden an öffentlicher Infrastruktur den öffentlichen Haushalt erheblich belasten. Dies wird durch steigendes Hochwasserrisiko zukünftig verstärkt. Versicherungslösungen bieten die Möglichkeit, diese Zusatzbelastung planbarer zu machen. Die zweite analysierte gesellschaftliche Auswirkung ist das Spätfrostrisiko in der Steiermark. Mittels eines interdisziplinären Ansatzes wird gezeigt, dass dieses trotz des Klimawandels bestehen bleibt oder sogar zunimmt. Es werden daher Maßnahmen benötigt, die das Einkommen und den Ernteertrag der Landwirte stabilisieren. Diese werden im Rahmen der Analyse aufgezeigt und verglichen. Die dritte untersuchte gesellschaftliche Auswirkung sind durch langsam und schnell einsetzende Wetterextreme verursachte Verspätungen im Flugverkehr. Die Resultate zweier Schätzverfahren zeigen, dass insbesondere schnell einsetzende Wetterextreme die Verspätungen signifikant erhöhen und dadurch zu wesentlichen gesellschaftlichen Zusatzkosten führen. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass die detaillierte Analyse der Auswirkungen von Klima- und Wetterextremen nötig ist, um Zusatzbelastungen im öffentlichen und privaten Sektor zu identifizieren und zielgerichtete Anpassungsmaßnahmen entwickeln und umsetzen zu können. ; Climate and weather related extremes continuously interfere with our everyday lives. They directly and indirectly affect human health, security and prosperity. With ongoing global warming, the frequency and intensity of such extreme events will change. Hence, it is essential to understand the effects climate and weather related extremes have on the public and private sector to design adaptation strategies that reduce societies vulnerability to extreme events. This dissertation singles out three showcases to analyze the impact extreme events have on social outcomes in the public and the private domain. Within the public domain, the impact of flood damages to public infrastructure on regional and national governments budgets is explored. It is found that flood risk to public infrastructure will increase due to climate change and that damages to public infrastructure persistently burden municipal budgets. It is shown that formalised insurance arrangements can contain the budgetary burden the increase in risk entails. For the private domain, the evolution of spring frost risk faced by Styrian apple farmers is analyzed. Taking an interdisciplinary approach, frost risk for apple cultures is projected to stagnate or even increase in a warmer climate. Adaptive measures needed to stabilize crop yields and farmers income are assessed. The third societal impact studied is flight delays caused by adverse weather conditions. Two econometric approaches are applied to estimate the impact of slow and sudden onset weather shocks on delays. Particularly, sudden onset weather shocks are found to have a significant impact, and therefore represent a considerable cost factor. Overall, disaggregated information on the impacts of climate and weather related extremes reveals regional and sector-specific vulnerabilities, the knowledge of which is essential in tailoring effective adaptation measures. ; Christian Unterberger ; Kumulative Dissertation aus 4 Artikeln ; Zusammenfassungen in Deutsch und Englisch ; Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Dissertation, 2018 ; OeBB ; (VLID)2581569

National audience ; Avec la généralisation de la conditionnalité des aides et son caractère désormais obligatoire, la réforme de la Politique Agricole Commune de juin 2003 fait un pas de plus dans le renforcement de la promotion d'une agriculture respectueuse de l'environnement. Parmi les différents champs couverts par la conditionnalité, l'article s'intéresse à la mesure visant à la mise en place de bandes enherbées dans les exploitations pratiquant des cultures arables. Combinant enquêtes de terrain et modélisation, les auteurs étudient deux systèmes de production (élevage bovin et grandes cultures) dans deux régions françaises (Pays de la Loire et Midi-Pyrénées) pour dégager les enjeux et les conséquences économiques et environnementales de cette mesure. Ils montrent ainsi qu'étant donné le poids des aides dans le revenu des exploitations et le relativement faible coût de la mise en place des bandes enherbées, les pénalités encourues en cas de non respect des nouvelles exigences se révèlent effectivement dissuasives, conduisant bien à l'amélioration de la performance environnementale des exploitations.

Avec la généralisation de la conditionnalité des aides et son caractère désormais obligatoire, la réforme de la Politique Agricole Commune de juin 2003 fait un pas de plus dans le renforcement de la promotion d'une agriculture respectueuse de l'environnement. Parmi les différents champs couverts par la conditionnalité, l'article s'intéresse à la mesure visant à la mise en place de bandes enherbées dans les exploitations pratiquant des cultures arables. Combinant enquêtes de terrain et modélisation, les auteurs étudient deux systèmes de production (élevage bovin et grandes cultures) dans deux régions françaises (Pays de la Loire et Midi-Pyrénées) pour dégager les enjeux et les conséquences économiques et environnementales de cette mesure. Ils montrent ainsi qu'étant donné le poids des aides dans le revenu des exploitations et le relativement faible coût de la mise en place des bandes enherbées, les pénalités encourues en cas de non respect des nouvelles exigences se révèlent effectivement dissuasives, conduisant bien à l'amélioration de la performance environnementale des exploitations.