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AbstractWhile the possibility of European disintegration is prominently on the public agenda, European Union (EU) studies have so far largely neglected the issue. This article looks for a proper theoretical starting point to conceptualize and explain European disintegration. Theories about European integration, but also international politics, comparative federalism, optimum currency areas and imperial decline appear to be problematic bases to this end. Some of these theories suffer from a state bias. Other theories are too narrowly focused to explain the complex process of disintegration. Yet others fail to interconnect coherently the manifold disintegrative factors. A theoretical framework on polity formation developed by Bartolini is the most promising basis from which to examine European disintegration as it avoids the problems just mentioned. It shows that Eurosceptic dissatisfaction mainly induces partial exits within the EU due to the EU's weak lock‐in power, its problematic voice structuring and the lack of proper full exit options.

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.One way to engage in rigorous, guilt‐free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.