Suchergebnisse

eingereicht von Aylin Sünney ; Universität Linz, Diplomarbeit, 2019 ; (VLID)4554362

This paper examines the recent evolution of the Brazilian public domestic debt and interprets it in light of the confidence crisis literature. The analysis of the recent developments in the Brazilian public domestic debt market shows that the likelihood of a default must not be assessed only using simple summary aggregate measures of public domestic debt size and maturity, but must also take into consideration other structural aspects. Our analysis emphasizes the two main pillars of the Brazilian public domestic debt market: home-bias and the role of the banking sector in intermediating the debt. Evidence from yields of a perfectly indexed bond shows that the rollover premium was very small when the devaluation occurred, and is still fairly small by October, 1999, indicating that the rollover of the public domestic debt has not, so far, constituted a serious problem. Positive prospects for the public domestic debt market will depend, however, on the Brazilian government maintaining the current fiscal austerity program.

Mit altgedienten Sprachbildern sollte man sparsam umgehen. Und doch: Die von Jerome Powell, dem Chef der Federal Reserve (Fed), unlängst vorgeschlagene zukünftige Zielzone für Inflationsraten, möglicherweise verbunden mit einer Anhebung der durchschnittlichen, von der Fed angestrebten Preissteigerungsrate, erinnert stark an ein von der Deutschen Bundesbank in den 1990er Jahren durchaus erfolgreich praktiziertes Modell. Damals stand allerdings nicht die Inflationsrate selbst, sondern die Wachstumsrate der Geldmenge im Fokus. ; This paper analyses the Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell's proposal possibilities and limits made during the recent meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA. According to Powell, the Fed, as well as the ECB, might change its inflation target policy in the future. The idea is to construct a target zone for the inflation rate. This mechanism would allow the Fed to violate its own inflation target - possibly more than 2 % in the future - for certain periods, provided it is committed to compensate for these violations in subsequent periods. The goal, hence, would be to meet the inflation target only on average in each period. This article discusses problems of implementation, compares the plan with the monetary compensation policy of the old Deutsche Bundesbank and assesses its likely failure or success.

Populismus macht sich breit: das zeigen der Brexit, die Wahl Donald Trumps, die befürchteten Ergebnisse der Wahlen in den Niederlanden und Frankreich sowie das Erstarken der AfD in Deutschland. Erklärt wird dieser Trend häufig sozio-kulturell mit einer Skepsis gegenüber der modernen globalisierten Welt. Adalbert Winkler präsentiert einen anderen Erklärungsansatz, der den Blick vor allem auf die ökonomischen Gründe lenkt. Er beschreibt die Entwicklung der dominierenden ökonomischen Dogmen und deren Einfluss auf die Politik sowie die Veränderung der globalen wirtschaftlichen Verflechtungen und deren Folgen für die Beschäftigten. Abschließend analysiert er die Erfolgsaussichten einer Politik, die von Populisten zur Lösung der entstandenen Probleme angeboten wird. ; Is the rise in populism driven by economic issues, e.g. inequality and stagnating incomes, or by social issues, e.g. illiberal views on gender, race and migration? This paper argues that it is impossible to distinguish between the two factors, as social issues have a profound impact on economic issues. Populists make use of this tight link and exploit the inability of mainstream policymakers to address the negative economic impact that open borders for goods, capital and labour have on a large number of people within their countries. The result is the return of economic nationalism, as it seems to provide policymakers with an opportunity to dismantle the policy constraints set by a globalised economy.

In der Augustausgabe 2015 veröffentlichte der Wirtschaftsdienst einen Aufsatz von Jens Boysen-Hogrefe und Ulrich Stolzenburg über "Rettungsprogramme und "Ownership" - Irland, Portugal und Griechenland im Vergleich". Nach der Replik von Ernst Niemeier folgt hierzu eine Erwiderung der Autoren. ; In his reply, Niemeier accuses Boysen Hogrefe and Stolzenburg of erroneously ascribing the failing of the Greek programme to insufficient "ownership", whereas the true cause is - in his view - an inadequate austerity policy. The alleged success of this policy in Portugal and Ireland refers solely to GDP growth and ignores the continuing high levels of unemployment in those countries. Boysen- Hogrefe and Stolzenburg insist that the "success" of a rescue programme actually implies that the respective country is able to return to capital markets. The Greek crisis was structural rather than cyclical, so a temporary stabilisation of domestic demand (financed by additional foreign debt) would not have solved the issue.

Following the British decision to leave the European Union, the question arises as to how relations should be conducted going forward. The objective of the negotiations between Great Britain and the EU is to ensure which strategy is best - both for the British and the EU. Another important element is what long and short-term advantages can be obtained. Here, the authors will examine these questions from a game theoretical perspective. In any case, it is evident that the EU will benefit the most from an uncompromising approach to the negotiations in the long term, whatever the benefits in the short term.

In this paper, we investigate possible sources of declining economic growth performance in Italy starting around the middle of the '90s. A long-run data analysis suggests that the poor performance of the Italian economy cannot be ascribed to an unfortunate business cycle contingency. The rest of the euro area countries have shown better performance, and the macroeconomic data show that the Italian economy has not grown as rapidly as these other European economies. We investigate the sources of economic fluctuations in Italy by applying the Business Cycle Accounting procedure introduced by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2007). We analyze the relative importance of efficiency, labor, investment and government wedges for business cycles in Italy over the 1982-2008 period. We find that different wedges have played different roles during the period, but the efficiency wedge is revealed to be the main factor responsible for the stagnation phase beginning around 1995. Our findings also show that the improvement in labor market distortions that occurred in Italy during the '90s provided an alleviating effect, preventing an even stronger slowdown in per capita output growth.

This paper investigates the consistency of the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan with the economic and industrial policy objectives outlined in the "Next Generation EU" plan and the European Commission's New European Industrial Policy. We analyze official policy documents in order to highlight some macroeconomic impact indicators with respect to the mission-based allocation of European and national financial resources. The New European Industrial Strategy is particularly challenging; industrial objectives outline a structural challenge capable of reshaping much of the industrial structure and strengthening critical value chains, especially in key sectors. Such an economic challenge requires clear strategic priorities in order to guide the economic transition. In this context, the Italian plan is particularly relevant since it brings together the largest share of European resources. The essay analyzes in detail the allocation of resources of the Italian NRRP, which—while formally adhering to the European guidelines—fails to address the priorities outlined by the EU-wide industrial strategy. JEL codes: E60, E61, E65

This paper reviews research on the origins of the financial crisis of 2008-2009, highlights the key events that triggered a financial panic in September 2008, and summarizes the extraordinary policy actions the United States (US) has taken to ameliorate the crisis. We discuss the proximate causes of the crisis, including the characteristics and growth of the subprime mortgage market, and the distorted incentives and flawed regulatory structure surrounding the secondary market for mortgage-backed securities. We also assess the role of more fundamental macroeconomic determinants of the bubble in US asset prices, most notably low global interest rates attributed to either loose monetary policy or excess global saving. We find that while low global interest rates may have contributed to the boom in housing markets and speculative excesses, the poorly understood innovations and microeconomic distortions of the financial system played a more fundamental role. Finally, the otherwise extraordinary policy response of the US government has been limited by the lack of an effective restructuring of the financial system, and a recovery marked by higher private saving, weak domestic investment, and a large public deficit appears to be unsustainable. Ultimately, the US economy will need to shift about 3% of GDP from domestic consumption to the export sector. This will pose some serious challenges to countries that have come to rely on exports to the US market.

This paper reviews Thailand's structural changes, the 1997 crisis experience, and recovery and lessons from the crisis. The paper then discusses the impacts of the subprime crisis on the Thai economy and the policy responses to date. The paper ends by discussing strategies to rebalance growth by reducing the dependence on exports as the main growth engine. The recovery from the 1997 crisis left Thailand more dependent than ever on exports as the main engine of growth, with the ratio of exports to gross domestic product (GDP) increasing from a precrisis level of about 38% to about 65% recently. The lessons learned from the 1997 crisis led to a more risk-averse financial system, and this helped Thailand avoid the direct impacts of the subprime crisis. However, being highly dependent on exports, Thailand, along with other export oriented East Asian economies, is now heavily affected by the indirect impacts of the subprime crisis, especially in the export industries. Exports and GDP have dropped sharply over the past two quarters. The government has been using fiscal stimulus and monetary easing measures to try to improve the economy. These measures are mostly short-term in nature, and if the subprime crisis is protracted, then the sustainability of the fiscal stimulus will be called into question. In the medium- to long-term, Thailand needs to move to a more balanced growth path, depending less on exports (although exports will still be important) and more on other, domestic sources of growth. The paper concludes by discussing a number of policy strategies that will contribute to a more balanced growth path.

Durch Digitalisierung und Klimaschutz entsteht ein zusätzlicher fundamentaler Erneuerungsbedarf des Kapitalstocks. Damit die dafür notwendigen Investitionen in Deutschland stattfinden, braucht es attraktive Standortbedingungen für Unternehmen, die im internationalen Wettbewerb stehen. Im internationalen Vergleich steht der Industriestandort Deutschland gut da und liegt auf Platz 4 gemäß der aktuellen Version des IW-Standortindexes. Diese relativ gute Position findet sich jedoch nicht bei allen Kategorien der berücksichtigten Standortfaktoren. Deutliche Wettbewerbsnachteile gibt es besonders bei den Kosten. Das betrifft Arbeits- und Energiekosten sowie die Steuerbelastung. Auch mit Blick auf die digitale Infrastruktur und die bürokratischen Lasten haben Unternehmen in Deutschland deutlich schlechtere Rahmenbedingungen. Seit 2013, dem Startpunkt der aktuellen Großen Koalition, wurden die bisherigen Schwächen des Standorts Deutschland noch ausgeprägter. Deutschland ist hier weiter zurückgefallen - weil sich andere Länder verbessert haben, während hierzulande wenig Fortschritt verzeichnet werden konnte. Fehlende Verbesserungen sind gleichzusetzen mit verschlechterten Chancen auf zukünftiges Wachstum. Nach den zwei Legislaturperioden der Großen Koalition muss die Standortpolitik eine höhere Priorität bekommen. Verbesserte Investitionsbedingungen für die Industrie sind notwendig, um die Erneuerung der Industrie zu forcieren und die Arbeitsplätze der Zukunft in Deutschland zu gewährleisten. ; The demands of digitalisation and climate protection are creating an additional need for fundamental renewal of Germany's capital stock. To ensure the necessary investments are made, the country will have to offer attractive investment conditions for companies that compete on international markets. Germany currently compares well with other countries as a business location: the latest version of the IW Business Location Index ranks it 4th in the world. However, this relatively good position is not reflected in all the location factors included in the Index, and there are distinct drawbacks to investing in Germany. These are to be found particularly in costs, with not only labour and energy costs but also the tax burden being especially high. Companies in Germany also have to contend with a significantly inferior digital infrastructure and considerable red tape. Since 2013, when Germany's two main parties formed the current government, the country's existing weaknesses as a business location have become even more pronounced. This lack of progress, combined with significant improvements in other countries, has left Germany falling further behind and is reducing the chances of future growth. After September's general election, the next legislative period must see location policy given higher priority. Germany needs improved investment conditions so that industry can be regenerated and secure the jobs of the future.

Donald Trump gewann 2016 die Präsidentschaftswahlen, nachdem schon seit der Regierungszeit Ronald Reagans die oberen Einkommensschichten begünstigt worden waren. Der technische Fortschritt und die Globalisierung führten zu einem Wandel der Wirtschaftsstruktur zulasten der Mittel- und die Unterschicht. Diese litten am stärksten unter sinkenden Löhnen, einer steigenden Verschuldung und der geringen sozialen Mobilität und wendeten sich gegen die sogenannte Elite, die sie für verantwortlich hielten. ; Donald Trump won in 2016 because of the building despair that began under Ronald Reagan's presidency. Economic dislocations played a crucial role in convincing voters in the Rust Belt to vote for an anti-establishment candidate. The dislocation was born out of the development of a dual economy characterised by falling wages, increasing debt and downward social mobility.

Die Eurokrise hat ihren Ursprung nicht nur in einer Staatsschuldenkrise. Sie wurde ebenfalls durch eine Zahlungsbilanzkrise verursacht. Ein breit gefächerter Ansatz in der Wirtschaftspolitik ist daher erforderlich, um die Eurozone auf einen nachhaltig stabilen und dynamischen Wachstumspfad zurückzubringen. ; A multi-faceted approach is required for the euro area to restore sustainable growth and prevent a vicious circle of public- and private-sector deleveraging leading to weaker economic activity which in turn results in a further deterioration in banks' asset quality. While avoiding discretionary fiscal expansion, creditor countries should work together with debtor countries to accelerate micro-economic reforms in product, services and labor markets to achieve greater macro-economic convergence in the euro area. This, with together the restoration of the health and resilience of the banking sector, is the key to the area's viability. The ECB's policy to avoid any deflationary bias while stabilizing inflation at or around 2 per cent for the euro-area as a whole should be another component of such an approach.

Croatia is becoming the 28th member of the European Union on July1st, 2013. Croatia has gone a long way from a socialist republic to an independentcountry recognized as one of the economic tigers of the Western Balkans in thefirst decade of the 21st century.Croatia has been hit by the global crisis, which turned out to be a huge externalshock for the region of the Western Balkans. Although it does not enter theeconomy through the direct channels, as local banks have not been engaged intoxic assets trade, but indirect channels, like the decrease of FDI, which deepensforeign trade deficits, slow credit growth or decrease of remittance which lead toeconomic disturbances during the last phase of the European integration process.Small economies, like Croatia, are exposed much more to the effects of any disturbanceson the international scene. They are dependent on foreign trade and the inflow of FDI, while their demand and inflation rate are affected by the pace of changes in big economies.The article addresses the problem of economic development in the countrywhich needs to deal with a problem of the economic crisis infection and the EUintegration process. The article studies the economic situation in Croatia which is the consequence of a recovery plan undertaken by the Croatian government. ; Croatia is becoming the 28th member of the European Union on July1st, 2013. Croatia has gone a long way from a socialist republic to an independentcountry recognized as one of the economic tigers of the Western Balkans in thefirst decade of the 21st century.Croatia has been hit by the global crisis, which turned out to be a huge externalshock for the region of the Western Balkans. Although it does not enter theeconomy through the direct channels, as local banks have not been engaged intoxic assets trade, but indirect channels, like the decrease of FDI, which deepensforeign trade deficits, slow credit growth or decrease of remittance which lead toeconomic disturbances during the last phase of the European integration process.Small economies, like Croatia, are exposed much more to the effects of any disturbanceson the international scene. They are dependent on foreign trade and the inflow of FDI, while their demand and inflation rate are affected by the pace of changes in big economies.The article addresses the problem of economic development in the countrywhich needs to deal with a problem of the economic crisis infection and the EUintegration process. The article studies the economic situation in Croatia which is the consequence of a recovery plan undertaken by the Croatian government.

Croatia is becoming the 28th member of the European Union on July1st, 2013. Croatia has gone a long way from a socialist republic to an independentcountry recognized as one of the economic tigers of the Western Balkans in thefirst decade of the 21st century.Croatia has been hit by the global crisis, which turned out to be a huge externalshock for the region of the Western Balkans. Although it does not enter theeconomy through the direct channels, as local banks have not been engaged intoxic assets trade, but indirect channels, like the decrease of FDI, which deepensforeign trade deficits, slow credit growth or decrease of remittance which lead toeconomic disturbances during the last phase of the European integration process.Small economies, like Croatia, are exposed much more to the effects of any disturbanceson the international scene. They are dependent on foreign trade and the inflow of FDI, while their demand and inflation rate are affected by the pace of changes in big economies.The article addresses the problem of economic development in the countrywhich needs to deal with a problem of the economic crisis infection and the EUintegration process. The article studies the economic situation in Croatia which is the consequence of a recovery plan undertaken by the Croatian government. ; Croatia is becoming the 28th member of the European Union on July1st, 2013. Croatia has gone a long way from a socialist republic to an independentcountry recognized as one of the economic tigers of the Western Balkans in thefirst decade of the 21st century.Croatia has been hit by the global crisis, which turned out to be a huge externalshock for the region of the Western Balkans. Although it does not enter theeconomy through the direct channels, as local banks have not been engaged intoxic assets trade, but indirect channels, like the decrease of FDI, which deepensforeign trade deficits, slow credit growth or decrease of remittance which lead toeconomic disturbances during the last phase of the European integration process.Small economies, like Croatia, are exposed much more to the effects of any disturbanceson the international scene. They are dependent on foreign trade and the inflow of FDI, while their demand and inflation rate are affected by the pace of changes in big economies.The article addresses the problem of economic development in the countrywhich needs to deal with a problem of the economic crisis infection and the EUintegration process. The article studies the economic situation in Croatia which is the consequence of a recovery plan undertaken by the Croatian government.