Suchergebnisse

Résumé Nous étudions l'évolution de la gestion de la dette publique, le comportement des gestionnaires de la dette publique et leur interaction avec la stabilité financière et la politique monétaire. Nous nous centrons sur la zone euro. L'estimation d'une fonction de réaction des gestionnaires de la dette montre que ces derniers réagissent aux variables suivantes : le niveau des taux d'intérêt dans le cadre de leur stratégie de minimisation du coût de la dette, la crise économique. L'accroissement de la dette à court terme des pays de la zone euro implique des risques financiers plus élevés et un renforcement des interactions entre la politique de gestion de la dette publique, la stabilité financière et la politique monétaire. La recommandation de politique économique que l'on peut faire est une plus grande transparence dans l'utilisation des actifs dérivés, ainsi qu'une gestion prudente de la dette. JEL Code : E62, E65, E52

This study analyses the performance of macroeconomic policy in South Africa in 2007- 2020 and outlines challenges for policy in the coming decade. After remarkable economic growth in 1997-07, South Africa's progress slowed dramatically in 2009 with the global financial crisis. Real GDP growth decelerated more than in other emerging markets and mineral exporting peers and never recovered pre-crisis levels. In addition, the budget deficit that provided counter-cyclical support to the economy was never reigned in, leading to a rapidly rising public debt load. The study assesses three accounts of South Africa's post-GFC growth and fiscal slump: (1) an external story; (2) a macro story; and (3) a microeconomic story. Evidence of strong linkages between micro- and political developments and growth performance is provided.

The Argentinean economy has just ended another lost decade. After the peak registered in 2011, the per capita GDP has oscillated with a decreasing trend, leaving the economy poorer than it was ten years before. During these ten years, different governments with conflicting macroeconomic programs were in power, none of them able to save the economy from stagflation. The goal of this paper is to address to what extent the economic performance would have been better had other policy combinations been implemented. The analysis is made through an empirical quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) model for the period 2007-19 in order to ensure the coherence of the results and to give the outcomes of the simulations a holistic and dynamically consistent interpretation. From the results of the simulations it seems that the problem that is keeping Argentina in stagflation goes beyond the domain of macroeconomics. The fact that in practice two divergent macroeconomic programs were implemented-neither of them being able to produce good and sustainable macroeconomic performance-is a first symptom that favors the case for that hypothesis. When the model is used to counterfactually test the policy recommendations of these approaches with the external conditions that prevailed while the opposite program was implemented, none of them yield results that can be deemed sustainable. Yet, the model developed in this paper can be useful for studying the different policy combinations that, given a specific context, can bring about more stable and sustainable dynamics for the Argentinean economy.

This paper provides a retrospective assessment of the effects of trade policies on South African manufacturing since the transition to democracy, examining the differences and commonalities in the views of economists in favour of and against an acceleration of trade liberalization. Data from the Bureau of Economic Research are used to test a number of effects on manufacturing industry that were envisaged to flow from trade policy reforms, including effects on mark-ups, productivity, exports, employment, and investment. The evidence presented here shows that a rising real exchange rate results in falling unit raw material costs as expected. However, exporter profitability still suffers because the mark-up also falls, presumably to keep prices from rising too much in foreign currencies. There is evidence, too, that a real appreciation causes the export volume to decrease.

Based on a large historical panel dataset, this paper provides robust evidence that the government spending multiplier is significantly higher when interest rates are at, or near, the zero lower bound. We estimate fiscal multipliers that are around 1.5 during zero lower bound episodes and significantly below unity outside of it. We show that the difference in multipliers is not driven by multipliers being higher during periods of economic slack.

On June 19, 2017 the European Union and the British government officially commenced negotiations on the terms of the British exit from the union. The dominant view among most economic policy analysts and commentators seems to be that the cards are clearly stacked against Britain and that the high-handed behaviour of the British representatives is, at best, either a bluff or, at worst, a sign of a loss of reality. In this paper we develop a formal model to show how this uncertainty regarding the preferences and strategy of the British side may affect the dynamic of the negotiations and may lead to unanticipated outcomes.

The paper examines the recent European crisis management programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to see how the lessons of Asia were applied. Compared to the Asian programs of 1997, the European programs of 2008 were better funded and their structural conditionality more focused. Other than these, the overall thrust of the programs was similar: fiscal and monetary tightening, coupled with banking reforms. The real difference, however, was not so much about content but about philosophy. Relative to the Asian programs, the European programs were characterized by more emphasis on ownership, greater collaboration among stakeholders, more realistic assumptions and greater transparency about the risks and the logic of policy actions, and more built-in flexibility of targets and policy options. This approach to crisis management, foreshadowing the major reform of conditionality in March 2009, incorporated the changes that had been made since the Asian crisis in the IMF's policies and procedures to manage capital account crises more effectively. Despite these recent changes in the way the IMF does its business, Asia appears to remain unengaged. The lesson Asia should draw from Europe is that it should build a strong regional institution to complement, and catalyze the involvement of, the IMF. Only then can the lessons learned in Asia over 10 years ago be applied back in Asia to benefit its own people.

On many measures, the indigenous movement in Ecuador has been the most successful in Latin America. This is particularly the case in political terms where they were key players until leaving the Gutiérrez cabinet. Their influence on the direction of economic policy has been minimal, however, and the rapid economic changes undertaken by the Correa administration since 2007 may marginalize them further. This paper examines Ecuador's checkered economic performance in the Washington Consensus period and the notable changes undertaken by Pres. Correa. These changes are then set in the context of the economic programs of the indigenous movement, specifically of CONAIE (Confederación de Nacionalidades Indígenas del Ecuador). This allows us to isolate several significant areas of overlap where the interests of the indigenous movement and of the Correa administration coincide and where collaboration on economic policy may be feasible.

Effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables during 1973-93 are analysed using a disaggregated macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy. Fiscal policy is measured as deviations from estimated trends for disaggregated policy variables. The policy effects are related to the cyclical situation of the economy. Variations in fiscal policy instruments have reduced output volatility during 1973-93 by approximately 10 per cent, according to our results. On average the behaviour of local government has been procyclical. Partial effects of various fiscal instruments are calculated. During certain episodes fiscal policy appeared procyclical, an effect that is due to the aim of stabilizing the current account.

The narrative approach to macroeconomic identification uses qualitative sources, such as newspapers or government records, to provide information that can help establish causal relationships. This paper discusses the requirements for rigorous narrative analysis using fresh research on the impact of monetary policy as the focal application. We read the historical Minutes and Transcripts of Federal Reserve policymaking meetings to identify significant contractionary and expansionary changes in monetary policy not taken in response to current or prospective developments in real activity for the period 1946 to 2016. We find that such monetary shocks have large and significant effects on unemployment, output, and inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely occurred in 2022. Based on the empirical estimates of the effect of previous shocks, one would expect substantial negative impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024. (JEL E31, E52, E58, E65, N12)

From March to July 1933, US industrial production rose 57 percent. We show that an important source of recovery was the effect of dollar devaluation on farm prices, incomes, and consumption. Devaluation immediately raised traded crop prices, and auto sales grew more rapidly in states and counties most exposed to these price increases. The response was amplified in counties with more severe farm debt burdens. For plausible assumptions about farmers' relative MPC, the incidence of higher farm prices, and the aggregate multiplier, this redistribution to farmers accounted for a substantial portion of spring 1933 growth. This farm channel thus provides an example of how the distributional consequences of macroeconomic policies can have large aggregate effects. That recovery in 1933 benefited from redistribution to farmers suggests an important limitation to the use of 1933 as a guide to the effects of monetary regime changes in other circumstances. (JEL E32, E65, N12, N52, Q11, Q12)

We examine the relationship between changes in a country's public sector fiscal position and inequality at the top and bottom of the income distribution during the age of austerity (2006-13). We use a parametric Lorenz curve model and Gini-like indices of inequality as our measures to assess distributional changes. Based on the EU's Statistics on Income and Living Conditions SLIC and International Monetary Fund data for 12 European countries, we find that more severe adjustments to the cyclically adjusted primary balance (i.e., more austerity) are associated with a more unequal distribution of income driven by rising inequality at the top. The data also weakly suggest a decrease in inequality at the bottom. The distributional impact of austerity measures reflects the reliance on regressive policies, and likely produces increased incentives for rent seeking while reducing incentives for workers to increase productivity.

Relying on a large sample of countries, this paper quantifies the effect of political constraints, as measured by legislative control by the incumbent government, on the size of fiscal stimulus packages that have been put in place as reaction to the Great Recession. The results suggest that on average, political constraints reduced the size of a country's fiscal stimulus packages by between 1.2 and 2.8 percentage points of GDP (depending on the stimulus measure used). This substantial effect is significant and robust to a number of alternative dependent variables and specifications. The results are thus in line with the widely held, but never tested, perception that political reality limits the de facto application of discretionary fiscal policy as reaction to negative economic shocks.

Die Staatsanleihekäufe der EZB sind zu einem Fall für das Bundesverfassungsgericht geworden. Die Autoren des IW Köln argumentieren, dass das Outright-Monetary-Transactions-Programm noch innerhalb der Grenzen des EZB-Mandats liegt, aber wegen seiner Nachteile nur temporär eingesetzt werden sollte. Sie halten das Programm für gerechtfertigt, weil die notwendige Sicherung der Finanzstabilität kurzfristig nicht die Preisstabilität gefährdet. Zudem belegen sie eine ernsthafte Störung der geldpolitischen Transmission in den Krisenländern und halten die EZB-Staatsanleihekäufe - unter gewissen Bedingungen - nicht für verbotene monetäre Staatsfinanzierung. ; The ECB's government bond purchases have become an issue for the German constitutional court. The authors see the OMT programme as falling within the bounds of its mandate but call for the ECB's crisis policies to be strictly temporary. They argue that the OMT programme was necessary to safeguard financial stability and that it does not endanger price stability in the short term. Moreover, they present evidence for the breakdown of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the crisis countries and argue that the conditions for forbidden monetary government financing are not met - provided the ECB sticks to certain conditions. Particularly, the ECB's government bond purchases must maintain a clear distinction between the primary market and a functioning secondary market.

Differences across countries or decades in the countercyclical stance of fiscal policy can help identify whether the growth in government spending affects output growth and so speeds recovery from a recession. We use the heterogeneity in the government-spending reaction functions across twenty countries in the interwar period to identify this effect. The main finding is that the growth of government spending did not have a significant effect on output growth, so that there is little evidence that this central aspect of fiscal policy played a stabilizing role from 1920 to 1939.