Citation: Alawin, M., Al-Hamdi, M., & Alomeri, M. (2016). Determinants of electricity demand in Jordan. Indian Journal of Science and Technology, 9(15). doi:10.17485/ijst/2016/v9i15/88578 ; Electricity is the most known form of energy that is related to production and crucial determinant of economic growth. This paper aims at identifying the determinants of electricity demand in Jordan. To achieve that goal the study employs an economic model that includes the following explanatory variables: Real GDP growth rate, population growth, the domestic energy price index and improvement in production efficiency in the manufacturing sector. This approach will be carried out using the Auto Regressive Distribution Lags (ARDL) model in order to find the determinants of electricity demand in Jordan. The findings of the study came to be consistent with the economic theory by showing that the demand for electricity grows directly and significantly with the growth of the real GDP and population. Means as the population of the country grows at rapid rates, policy makers should be prepared to make the necessary actions to face larger electricity demand in the future. Interestingly, the results show that a higher level of domestic inflation gives incentives to people to save on the electricity consumption. Finally, as expected, the results show that with an improvement in the performance of the manufacturing sector, demand on electricity goes down. Based on these results, the government should facilitate all procedures for economic units to adapt advanced means of production and consumption of energy to meet the increasing electricity demand.
VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes 2470 ; The future electricity demand and demand trends in Finland and in the Nordic countries (excluding Iceland) are the main focus of this report. The electricity demand per capita is high on a European and even on a global scale in Finland, Sweden and Norway. One reason is the high share of electric heating combined with a cold climate; another reason is the relatively low price level of electricity which has led to extensive electricity intensive industry. The estimated Nordic business as usual (BAU) demand for year 2020 is 435 TWh and for year 2030 454 TWh. EU's recent policy decisions regarding increased use of renewables, greenhouse gas emission reductions and improved energy efficiency will have an impact on the electricity system. The basic demand is expected to decrease compared to the BAU scenario. The future trends do not only affect annual consumption, but also the load curves and system peak load behaviours. Using consumer type load models and sectorwise annual energy estimates, we model the Nordic load curves for each country for the years 2020 and 2030. EU 20-20-20 policies will change how electricity is used. The authors of this report see industrial electricity demand, electric heating and heat pumps, and electric vehicles as the most important individual factors that may affect electricity demand in the future, and even increase it considerably. The impacts of large scale penetration of the latter two are further analysed with special regard to effect on system peak load. The analysis was done using what-if cases. The future of oil heating is under the spotlight especially in Finland according to the long-term climate and energy strategy of the Ministry of Employment and the Economy. If 200 000 of the oil heated detached houses are converted to heat pumps, then the electricity consumption would rise with more than 2 TWh. At the same time the peak load will rise with 1100 MW. On the other hand, if a similar chunk of direct electric heated houses get heat pumps, it will more than compensate for the rise in consumption. But not for the rise in peak load as there will still remain a net increase of 700 MW. The deployment of electric vehicles (EV) and their effect on the electricity power system was studied. The results indicate that a small amount of EVs (5% to 10% market share) will increase electricity demand by a negligible amount, less than 0.5-1 % in Finland. If half of all personal vehicles were EVs, a realistic possibility by 2030, the electricity consumption would rise in Finland by 3 TWh and in the Nordic countries by 15 TWh. However, it will not require any extraordinary changes to the system peak load management if smart distribution network charging is selected as the preferred charging method. Our results show an increase in the system peak load of 1000 MW on the Nordic level. Large scale penetration of both heat pumps and electric vehicles on a Nordic level are studied with two case studies, case A being a worst case scenario with regard to load impact and case B a more realistic alternative. In case B also electric heated houses get heat pumps, not only oil heated houses as in case A. Both cases show a substantial (3.000-4.000 MW) peak load increase at -25°C, whereas peak load increase is quite small for case B at -10°C. A simultaneous cold spell in the Nordic countries is in our opinion better described by -10°C than by -25°C, thus EVs and heat pumps might not affect the peak capacity requirements in the Nordic countries as adversely as beforehand was anticipated. Considering all demand issues presented in this report, it is clear that electricity is a high value source of energy offering possibilities to overall energy savings and an increased share of renewables. This will further boost the electrification of the society.
There was a time when the electricity for running server farms was an afterthought, but in many place, that time is already past. The International Energy Agency has a discussion of the issue in its recent report, Electricity2024: Analysis and forecast to 2026 (January 2024, pp. 31-36). The light blue and dark blue bars show … Continue reading Server Farms and Electricity Demand The post Server Farms and Electricity Demand first appeared on Conversable Economist.
The large-scale development of variable renewable energy sources, like wind and solar power, increases the demand for flexibility in power systems. At the same time, their electricity production replaces that of conventional power plants – the traditional suppliers of flexibility, and consequently, a new flexible infrastructure needs to be established. This thesis addresses the policy dimension of the flexibility challenge with a focus on Denmark, a country committed politically in two ways that make it particularly interesting: first, a commitment to renewable energy formulated as a long-term vision of becoming independent of fossil fuels; and second, a commitment to liberalised energy sectors with a notably progressive approach to market-based operations. The crucial question of how it will be possible to balance the Danish electricity system with large amounts of variable renewable production, primarily wind power, is still under debate. To maintain reliability in the most cost-efficient way, a policy strategy aiming at flexibility needs to be developed. Technologically, several different options are available to fulfil the requirement. A part of the solution may be to make use of idle flexibility on the demand side. Its potential could be substantial and technical solutions are available. Still, demand flexibility is largely unutilised and establishing an enabling policy and regulatory framework has been identified as one of the major challenges. While the latest Danish energy policies include a clear commitment to develop an "intelligent" energy system that utilises the flexibility potential of the demand side, a coherent policy strategy covering all aspects of the flexibility challenge has not yet been defined. By use of economic models and concepts of policy analysis, this thesis considers several policy options aiming at demand flexibility in terms of their effectiveness to induce adoption and their efficiency in creating system value while accounting for the specific characteristics of the demand side. The thesis suggests barriers relevant to be addressed due to either market failures in the classic economic sense or systemic failures founded in market design, rules and regulations. The analysis covers impacts of failures stemming from incomplete markets for flexibility and inappropriate regulation that distort the observed value or risks of demand flexibility. Furthermore, it considers various types of transaction costs related to adopting a demand response contract (switching costs) and to activation (monitoring and decision costs). The thesis develops methods to quantify the impacts of these failures and applies them in relation to the Danish case. Switching costs are estimated and found to be a major barrier to the adoption of dynamic pricing schemes in spite of the benefits that could be achieved. As the cost of adoption may be difficult to influence directly, policies may aim at increasing the benefits vii of flexible demand. One suggested option is to address the issue of incomplete markets and expand market access of flexible demand in the spatial and time dimensions. The value of improving the access of the demand side to intra-hourly reserve markets is found to be substantial. Quantitative findings of the thesis suggest that the reserve value of flexible demand may be significantly higher than the value in hourly spot markets. Another improvement might be achieved by adjusting distortional electricity price elements. It can be shown that value-based taxation, even if applied to smaller portions of the electricity taxes and levies, generates benefits sufficient to exceed switching cost estimates. Monitoring and decision costs can be caused by the complexity of pricing schemes and hamper efficient response. Even though real-time pricing generates the highest benefits in theory, results of the thesis suggest that simplified schemes with minimal monitoring and decision costs would generate around half of the ideal gains and could be deemed sufficiently beneficial during an initial phase. After consumers gained experience with dynamic pricing, they should be transferred to the more complex and efficient schemes, though. Focussing on the installation of automation equipment could be another way to improve the efficiency of response. As this would require investments, the question of risk involved in generating benefits from demand response becomes more relevant. Using a stochastic price model the thesis shows that risk-averse investors might require a significant cost reduction, resulting in lower levels of investment in automation than what could be expected based on average prices. A policy intervention could be considered to initialise adoption, depending on the further technology cost development. Overall, the thesis improves the understanding of the specific challenges that policymaking faces when aiming at better utilisation of demand-side flexibility. It includes aspects that often would remain unaddressed in the evaluation of policies. On that basis, it provides support to the development of a coherent policy strategy for flexibility that is required for the successful transition to a fossil-free energy system.
Availability of electricity is essential in modern age because it becomes a necessity of life. The present study used some economic and non-economic determinants that affect household demand for electricity. This study used PSLM survey data for the year 2013-14. The amount of electricity consumed by household was used as dependent variable whereas electricity price, household income, appliances, heating days, region, awareness, and rooms were taken as explanatory variables. Ordinary least square technique (OLS) was used for analysis. The findings of the study showed that Economic and demographic factors are important in determining electricity expenditure. In micro level analysis prices has strong and positive effect on electricity expenditures and it didn't represent traditional behavior of demand with price. Price and income had positive impact during the period of study with demand for electricity. Expenditure on electricity is fairly higher during summer season. Positive and significant effect is estimated for stock of electricity appliances. Household members have significant effect on electricity expenditure but shows very smaller influence. The dummy variable for region indicates that electricity expenditure is higher for those households who are living in urban areas as compared to rural. Over the time period residential demand of electricity is increasing in Pakistan. As Pakistan is consumption oriented society and demand for appliances is increasing so government should take necessary measures to shift appliances on other resources other than electricity. Increasing use of the appliances increases demand for electricity therefore generation of electricity resources should be increased to meet this increasing demand.
Pakistan has plunged into darkness because of severe electricity shortage over the last few years. The electricity shortfall has reached 4,250 MW with demand standing at 16,400 MW and generation at 12,150 MW in June 2013 (PEPCO). The load shedding and power blackouts act as a binding constraint to the economic growth through their impact on employment, trade and poverty [Kessides (2013)]. The existing statistics reveal that Pakistan has witnessed low GDP growth rate during the periods of low or negative electricity growth and during the periods where electricity growth picked up there is an increase in GDP growth rate [Pakistan (2013)]. The power crisis has destroyed the industrial sector of Pakistan. Around 40 percent factories and industry units have now been closed and around 7.5 percent of labour force is out of jobs only because of this dilemma.1
AbstractThe growing demand for electricity has put pressure on generation of electricity based on fossil fuel, resulting in emission of carbon dioxide. In order to design policy for demand side management, proper knowledge on determinants of electricity demand as well as prediction of future demand is required. However, study on estimation and forecasting of residential demand in developing countries like India has received less attention. This study is the first attempt to estimate and forecast residential electricity demand in the state of Odisha, which is the pioneer of electricity reform in India. It employs ARDL model to estimate residential electricity demand; while ARIMA, VAR and VEC models are employed to forecast future demand. The results show that income and price of electricity are significant determinants of residential electricity demand. The higher price elasticity compared to income elasticity reveals that price could be used as an effective instrument for demand side management. The forecast results show that VAR has the lowest error, which predicts per capita residential electricity demand to be double by 2030–31. This would help the policy makers to plan for demand side management and electricity generation so as to avoid shortage of electricity supply.
By now, there is a consensus that non-residential buildings (commercial and public buildings) present important opportunities for reducing cost, fuel inputs and greenhouse gas emissions, especially because of their intensive use of electricity. Till now, however, in emerging economies energy efficiency opportunities in buildings are typically more focused on households. In Mexico, official government statistics suggest that the non-residential sector electricity demand is low compared to the residential and industrial sectors, but previous studies suggest that non-residential electricity use is underestimated due to the reliance of electricity tariff classes, which may not adequately distinguish large commercial buildings from industrial facilities. The analysis presented here follows the same general bottom-up methodology as two recent studies, but enhances them with a more rigorous and up-to-date assessment of electricity drivers of building sub-types from a variety of sources. The result is a more reliable estimate of non-residential electricity demand by building sub-type and climate zone. Non-residential buildings electricity demand in 2017 is found to be 66.9 TWh, which is nearly three times the official estimate of 22.6 TWh in the same year. Such a large discrepancy likely distorts the picture of energy use in the country and may lead to an under-emphasis by government and private sector actors in managing energy use in this important sector.
Although the energy headlines of 1985 proclaim the waning of OPEC, the collapse of oil prices, and the demise of the nuclear power industry, few policy analysts are examining the dynamic challenges and opportunities that may confront the electric power industry during the remainder of this century. In this pioneering work, Adela Maria Bolet attempts to do exactly this, namely, to reconcile the differences among forecasters as to the future of electricity demand in the industrial, commercial, and residential sectors.
