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Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONJUNCTURE -- A. Recent Developments -- B. Baseline Outlook -- C. Risks Around the Baseline -- MONETARY POLICY -- RISK REDUCTION -- A. Fiscal Policies -- B. Structural Policies -- C. External Sector Policies -- D. Financial Sector Policies -- ARCHITECTURE -- A. Banking Union -- B. Capital Markets Union -- C. Fiscal Institutional Reforms -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Macroeconomic Impacts of Brexit -- 2. Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics -- 3. European Commission Proposals on Corporate Income Taxation -- 4. Capitalizing on Knowledge-Based Capital -- 5. Recent Policy Proposals on NPLs -- 6. Specific Steps Toward Capital Markets Union -- 7. Preparing the Financial Sector for Brexit -- 8. Some Background on Euro Clearing and Brexit -- 9. A Central Fiscal Capacity for Macroeconomic Stabilization -- TABLES -- 1. Main Economic Indicators, 2015-23 -- 2. External Sector Assessment -- 3. Risk Assessment Matrix -- 4. Structural Reform Plans and Progress in Selected Euro Area Countries -- ANNEXES -- I. Progress Against IMF Recommendations -- II. Statistical Issues.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- Glossary -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- DETERMINANTS OF EURO AREA BANK PROFITABILITY -- A. Introduction -- B. Conceptual and Empirical Framework -- C. Data, Key Trends, and Stylized Facts -- D. Econometric Analysis -- E. Conditional Profitability Distributions -- F. Weakest Bank Profits in 2016-An Illustrative Exercise -- G. Conclusions and Policy Implications -- References -- BALANCE SHEET-BASED INTERCONNECTEDNESS AND CONTAGION RISK ANALYSIS -- A. Bank-Level Analysis of Interbank Exposures and Contagion Risk -- B. Country-Level Analysis of Cross-Border Linkages and Contagion Risk -- C. Caveats -- D. Summary and Policy Implications -- References -- APPENDICES -- I. Euro Area: Stress Test Matrix (STeM) for the Banking Sector: Contagion Risks -- II. Methodology, Data, and Implementation -- MARKET-BASED INTERCONNECTEDNESS ANALYSIS -- A. Introduction -- B. General Framework: An Overview -- C. Data and Stylized Facts -- D. Pooled OLS Versus Quantile Regressions -- E. Conditional Spillover Distributions -- F. Conclusions and Policy Implications -- References -- APPENDICES -- I. Market and Balance Sheet Indicators -- II. Sample Description -- III. Pooled Estimation Strategy -- CONTINGENT CLAIMS ANALYSIS -- APPENDICES -- I. An Overview of the Structure of the CCA-MCS-GVAR Model -- II. List of Banks, Insurers, and Countries -- DATA GAPS IN THE NONBANK, NON-INSURANCE FINANCIAL SECTOR -- FIGURES -- 1. Euro Area Banks (Significant Institutions): Key Trends and Stylized Facts -- 2. Illustrative Conditional Profitability (ROE) Distributions -- 3. Illustrative Exercise: Bank Profitability, Growth, and NPLs -- 4. Banks' Cross-Border Exposures, June 2017 -- 5. Network Graphs, June 2017 -- 6. Intra-EA Interconnectedness Analysis, June 2017 -- 7. Cross-border Contagion Analysis, June 2017 -- 8. Bank Distress Sensitivity to Model Assumptions.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- Glossary -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- BACKGROUND -- A. Scope of the Review -- B. Progress and Experience So Far -- C. Legislative Proposals -- "COMPLETING" THE BANKING UNION -- A. European Deposit Insurance Scheme -- B. Financing Resolution -- C. Further Unification of the Regime -- D. Balancing Home-Host Interests -- E. MREL -- INSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGES -- A. Decision-Making Structure -- B. System-Wide Crisis Management -- ENHANCING OPERATIONAL CAPACITY -- A. Introduction -- B. Staffing -- C. Operational Readiness -- D. Resolution Preparation and Implementation -- E. Recovery and Resolution Planning -- F. Inter-Agency Cooperation -- DEPOSIT INSURANCE -- BOXES -- 1. The Recent Italian, Spanish, and Latvian Bank Intervention Cases: Chronology -- 2. European Deposit Insurance Scheme: Key Features -- 3 The Commission's Crisis Communications on State Aid to Financial Institutions -- 4. Home-Host Balance in Recovery and Resolution -- 5. Harmonizing the Hierarchy of Creditor Claims in Bank Insolvency and Bail-In Provisions -- 6. Decision-Making Structure for Resolution -- 7. Moratorium Proposal -- 8. Timeline SRB Resolution Planning -- TABLES -- 1. Recommendations on Bank Resolution and Crisis Management -- 2. Staffing of the Single Resolution Mechanism -- ANNEXES -- I. BRRD: Use of Selected National Options -- II. DGSD: Use of Selected National Options -- III. Recovery and Resolution Planning in the Absence of a Common Approach -- IV. The Recent Italian and Spanish Bank Intervention Cases: Bibliography.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the euro area recovery is taking hold. Real output has expanded for four consecutive quarters, and financial market sentiment has improved markedly. Complementary policy actions have supported demand, boosted investor confidence, and eased financial conditions. At the national level, governments have made further progress repairing sovereign and bank balance sheets and implementing structure reforms to restore competitiveness. At the area-wide level, the ECB has taken a wider range of measures to support demand and address fragmentation. Over t

This paper studies monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area. It discusses the process of policy competition and the structure of policy cooperation. As to policy competition, the focus is on competition between the European central bank, the German government, and the French government. As to policy cooperation, the focus is on the same institutions. These are higher-dimensional issues. The policy targets are price stability and full employment. Special features of this paper are numerical simulations of policy competition and numerical solutions to policy cooperation.