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Cover -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. RELATED LITERATURE -- III. METHODOLOGY AND DATA -- IV. STYLIZED FACTS -- V. DRIVERS OF EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION: ALL COUNTRIES AND EMDES -- VI. DRIVERS OF EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION: EMDE COMMODITY EXPORTERS VERSUS DIVERSIFIED EXPORTERS -- VII. DOING BUSINESS INDICATORS AND DIVERSIFICATION -- VIII. POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- IX. CONCLUSION -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Diversification and Development -- 2. Diversification and Potential Determinants -- 3. Diversification and Potential Determinants -- TABLES -- 1. Distribution Statistics of Diversification Index -- 2. Baseline Specification, All Countries and EMDEs -- 3. Baseline Specification, EMDEs - Commodity and Diversified Exporters -- 4. Baseline Specification with Doing Business Indicator.

The paper explores the impact of workers' remittances on the level of export diversification. The hypothesis is that significant inflow of remittances causes overvaluation of real exchange rate, which in turn deteriorates diversity of export. The theoretical base is in line with the Dutch disease phenomenon. The paper uses annual cross-national panel data over 2000-2016 period and System GMM methodology. The evidence suggests that indeed large inflow of remittances is associated with less diversified export. The economic intuition behind is that remittance-caused real exchange rate appreciation unevenly suppresses export of goods: some goods "suffer" more than others do. In terms of the number of product-names, a percentage point increase in remittances to GDP sent home "reduces" variety of export by approximately five active lines. There are other interesting findings as well. An improvement of government effectiveness facilitates overall export diversification; terms of trade improvement and rise of real exchange rate volatility mostly increase export concentration rather than alter number of exported product-names.

The role of the banking industry in export promotion cannot be over-emphasized as banks provide the necessary financial support for borrowers in various industries to undertake investment activities. With the help of an industry-level dataset on bilateral trade flows between various countries, I consider OLS and IV regressions to determine whether the Lerner Index of the banking industry, an indicator on the degree of competition, influences the number of industries exported. In order to consider the impact of competition in the banking industry on export diversification at different levels of financial development of the exporting countries, I split the countries into OECD member countries, non OECD countries and include a pooled set of countries. As macroeconomic conditions are likely to influence the market structure of the banking industry, I further split the samples of countries on the basis of the median levels of lending and the deposit rate spread, foreign bank participation rate and the ratio of government credit to private credit provided by the domestic banks for the respective groups of countries based on their OECD membership status and find varying results under different macroeconomic conditions and levels of financial development. In the recent years, several studies have determined the role of financial markets on exporting activities to be significant at the country-level as well as at the firm-level. To the best of my knowledge, this is one of the first paper to study the influence of competition within the banking industry on export diversification at the industry-level.

Export diversification can lead to higher growth. Developing countries should diversify their exports since this can, for example, help them to overcome export instability or the negative impact of terms of trade in primary products. The process of economic development is typically a process of structural transformation where countries move from producing "poor-country goods" to "rich-country goods." Export diversification does play an important role in this process. The author also provides robust empirical evidence of a positive effect of export diversification on per capita income growth. This effect is potentially nonlinear with developing countries benefiting from diversifying their exports in contrast to the most advanced countries that perform better with export specialization.

Countries with diversi ed export baskets take advantage of various bene ts, which are said to foster and stabilize economic growth directly and through indirect channels (e.g. reduced income volatility, positive externalities, spillover e ects). This is especially important in the context of developing economies. However, identifying the true determinants of export diversifi cation is di cult as there exists no comprehensive theoretical or empirical framework to capture all potential factors in their entirety. This paper uses Bayesian Model Averaging to uncover the true long-term roots of export diversi cation among 43 potential determinants,and thus 2 potential models. Our results suggest that only four factors are important in predicting export diversi cation levels over the long run: natural resource rents as a percentage of GDP (100 % posterior inclusion probability), primary school enrollment rates (96 %), population size (25 %), and foreign direct investment levels (17 %). Many prominent candidates turn out to be insigni cant in determining diversi cation levels. Neither policy-related variables (e.g. tari s, freedom from trade regulations or democracy) nor macroeconomic factors (such as trade openness, terms of trade or domestic investment levels) nor geographical remoteness (whether the country is an island or landlocked) play a role. Various robustness checks con rm our results.

Although many papers have dealt with the relation between trade structure and economic growth, much less attention has been paid to the underlying determinants of export diversification, an exercise that should provide valuable research and policy recommendations regarding the room for active government interventions and their expected outcomes. To fill this gap, this project aims to investigate this issue by: (1) employing econometric techniques on a cross-country database; (2) analyzing, as a case study, firm-level export diversification in Argentina. As a result of the pronounced real devaluation of the peso in 2002-2004, this country offers a nice quasi-natural experiment to examine whether relative prices might influence export diversification and to observe whether diversification is a between- or within-firm phenomenon. ; Departamento de Economía

Since at least the 1960s, the European Union (EU) has offered various kinds of non-reciprocal trade preferences for developing countries. Originally, these trade preferences had at least two policy goals: (i) to increase export volumes for developing countries and thereby boost their export earnings, and (ii) to facilitate export diversification. While extensive research has confirmed that the first of these goals is typically met, the second goal seems to have been largely forgotten by researchers as well as in policy circles. The aim of this paper is therefore to analyse the impact of the EU's non-reciprocal trade preferences for developing countries on export diversification. Our estimation results suggest that some trade preference programs, such as the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP), are associated with increasing ranges of export products. By contrast, preferences offered to Mediterranean countries typically have no significant effects, and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) preferences actually have negative effects toward the end of our time period, suggesting that ACP countries may respond to preferences by specializing into fewer goods.

Since at least the 1960s, the European Union (EU) has offered various kinds of non-reciprocal trade preferences for developing countries. Originally, these trade preferences had at least two policy goals: (i) to increase export volumes for developing countries and thereby boost their export earnings, and (ii) to facilitate export diversification. While extensive research has confirmed that the first of these goals is typically met, the second goal seems to have been largely forgotten by researchers as well as in policy circles. The aim of this paper is therefore to analyse the impact of the EU's non-reciprocal trade preferences for developing countries on export diversification. Our estimation results suggest that some trade preference programs, such as the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP), are associated with increasing ranges of export products. By contrast, preferences offered to Mediterranean countries typically have no significant effects, and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) preferences actually have negative effects toward the end of our time period, suggesting that ACP countries may respond to preferences by specializing into fewer goods.

We propose a short-run model of the extensive margin of trade and deploy it to distinguish and quantify domestic and cross-border margins. Our empirical focus is on the domestic extensive margin of trade (domestic distribution of a product) and its importance for quantifying policy and globalization effects on the international extensive margin of trade. We build a dataset that combines data on the domestic extensive margin and the standard international extensive margin. It reveals significant and intuitive variation in the domestic extensive margin across countries and over time. We quantify the extensive margin effects of European Union (EU) integration, 2008-2018, and demonstrate that these effects cannot be identified without the domestic extensive margin. We find strong and highly heterogeneous effects, both across countries and directionally.