Suchergebnisse

The author analyzed e a new perspective on democratization processes, by analyzing the role of external dynamics in the transformation Poland. The academic research only recently started to focus on the external factors, and the influenced agents were mainly the political elites and institutions. The first part examines the theoretical foundations of transformation, a combination of external and internal factors that have influenced the processes in Central and Eastern Europe. For example, the model, presented by the researcher Edmund Wnuk-Lipiński shows the sequence of five phases of transition from the old system to the new one in Poland. In the next part, author describes "transformation through integration" and analyzes the effect of the overlap of the systemic transformation process on accession processes. In conclusion, membership in the EU is considered as an opportunity to further develop, the factor of increase foreign direct investment and the choice of civilization for Polish society

External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects ofemerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of externalmacro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VARconsisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for smallopen economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolboxcan be used for "nowcasting" the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regularupdates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhancethe accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that externalshocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.

The following article considers the origins, external and internal factors of the modern crisis in Yemen. It is particularly noted that one of the reasons that Yemen has always been the arena for a clash of interests of the powers due to its strategic position on the sea route connecting Europe with the Indian ocean. It describes in detail how, along with the external threat, North and South Yemen in the second half of the XXth century was torn by internal contradictions. It is noted that after the integration of Yemen in 1990, opposition intensified its activities against the conditions of unification, which led to a new civil war. The article has a strong focus on the fact that in Yemen in the end of twentieth century political factor has been supplemented by religious factor, i.e., the confrontation escalated between the northerners Shia zaidis and the South Sunni. Attention is drawn to the fact that the spread of Wahhabism in Yemen as an ideological and political force, the creation of "al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula" has further aggravated the explosive situation in the country. The analysis of the process of transformation of the theological movement of the Houthis-zaidis into a military-political force, which managed in the Wake of the "Arab spring" and in Alliance with the supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, not only to seize power in Sana'a in January 2015, but also to expand its position up to Aden. The particular emphasis has been placed on the fact that since March 2015 the conflict in Yemen has acquired an international character, when the Saudi coalition (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, Sudan and UAE, Egypt) sided with the President in the exile of Abd Rabbo Mansur Hadi and forced the Houthis to retreat from Aden and Bab El-Mandeb Strait by force of arms. It is noted what changes have occurred in the US policy towards the support of the Saudi coalition in recent years. The role of Iran in Yemen and the nature of its relations with the Houthis cause disputes between researchers. Based on the analysis of recent events, it is concluded that the military actions of the Saudi coalition can lead to the elimination of Yemen as a state. The ongoing armed conflict and the futility of attempts at a political solution make the possibility of a peaceful settlement in Yemen problematical.

In 2014, amid increasing geopolitical risks and economic sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States against Russia, the Russian ruble dramatically depreciated, and the Russian economic expansion slowed. As a result, supplies of Belarusian-made products and services to Russia became unprofitable, which caused the government and the National Bank to take urgent measures. In order to support the price competitiveness of Belarusian exporters and increase import costs, the authorities devaluated the national currency. At the same time, the strengthening of administrative price controls by the state allowed limiting import supplies and curbing demand for foreign exchange. In 2015, the authorities will continue using the tactics of internal devaluation envisaging measures to reduce internal demand, real wages, and real GDP in order to restrict external depreciation of the Belarusian ruble against the main foreign currencies.