Suchergebnisse

Understanding the workings of whole economies is essential for sound policy advice - but not necessarily for accurate forecasts. Structural models play a major role at most central banks and many other governmental agencies, yet almost none forecast the financial crisis and ensuing recession. We focus on the problem of forecast failure that has become prominent during and after that crisis, and illustrate its sources and many surprising implications using a simple model. An application to 'forecasting' UK GDP over 2008(1)-2011(2) is consistent with our interpretation.

"No abstract available"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site

This article summarises research on the role of forward-looking behaviour in important sectors of a macro-econometric model. It is based on the work of a number of researchers at the National Institute over the last two years. Important changes are introduced into many central equations in the model We argue that on grounds of both the underlying theory and the plausibility of the empirical results, this work is a significant advance in explaining dynamic macro-economic behaviour.

1. Economic Methodology and Econometrics -- 2. Statistical Decision Theory -- 3. Econometric Model Selection Procedures: A Survey -- 4. Set of Spherical Models -- 5. Set of More Informative Models -- 6. AVE and Acord Criteria. A New Proposal -- 7. Dynamic Models-1 -- 8. Dynamic Models-2 -- References.