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The aim of this thesis is to investigate the influence of climate and health policies on personal well-being and the environment or both as well as how household behaviour influences the sustainability of health goals – prevalence of obesity. The most important contribution of this thesis is the application of new methods, use of experimental data and incorporation of national climate and health policy goals into our analysis. The thesis has six chapters, the first chapter deals with the introduction of the thesis whilst the last chapter summarizes the conclusion from the four main chapters comprising of four papers. The second Chapter investigates the effectiveness of carbon tax to promote climate-friendly food demand, welfare and diet quality in Spain. Tax policy scenarios were based on EU alternative social cost of emissions. Own- and cross-price elasticities of sixteen food groups were calculated from incomplete Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) food demand system. Results show that price increases due to the tax reform reduces the consumption of the food products associated with higher CO2 equivalent emissions but improves diet quality. Even though the tax reform simultaneously improved both the environment and health, the tax was more regressive on low-income citizen's welfare. The third Chapter investigates the effectiveness of a health tax reform on consumer welfare and diet quality. In this case, the tax policy scenario was based on internalizing the social cost of obesity in Spain. Using the 2012 Kantar homescan data, the EASI demand model was used to estimate nutrient price and expenditure elasticities. Results suggest marginal improvement in the quality of diet, although not in the very short term. Moreover, the consumption of health damaging nutrients such as saturated fatty acid, sodium, and cholesterol decreased tremendously. From the welfare perspective, all household segments had expenditure savings. In Chapter four the thesis took a behavioural perspective due to the marginal impact of the taxes on reducing the consumption of both environmental and health damaging foods. As a result, this chapter assessed the link between psychological attitudes such as risk attitudes, time inconsistencies and body mass index (to account for the prevalence of obesity) in Catalonia. Experimental data on consumer attitudes towards risk, time inconsistencies and sociodemographic characteristics were collated from a section of Catalonian households in 2014. Econometric approaches based on prospect theory and time discounting were used to estimate the risk and time parameters, respectively. The results support a strong influence of risk aversion on the development of body mass index. Furthermore, time inconsistencies significantly influence individuals propensity to increase body mass index. The fifth Chapter brings together all the covariates that influence the development of obesity by investigating the psychological, behavioural and socioeconomic drivers of obesity in Catalonia using path model analysis. Experimental data that elicited risk preferences, time inconsistencies, believes about obese persons, attitudes towards obesity, body perception, body image dissatisfaction and body mass index consumers were used. A multivariate path model was used to estimate the path parameters linking the covariates. Results suggest significant direct and indirect relationships between obesity and most variables. Obesity is also directly influenced by believe that obesity is controllable, correct body image and body image dissatisfaction. Second, significant indirect relationship was found between obesity and attitudes towards persons with obesity. Socioeconomic factors that have significant influence of obesity include age and gender. Risk attitudes did not have any direct or indirect effects on obesity. ; El objetivo de esta tesis doctoral es investigar la influencia de políticas climáticas y de salud sobre el bienestar personal y el medioambiente, así como, la forma en que el comportamiento de los hogares influye en la sostenibilidad de los objetivos de salud. La contribución principal de esta tesis es la aplicación de nuevas metodologías, el uso de datos experimentales y la incorporación de los objetivos de políticas nacionales de clima y salud en nuestro análisis. El presente documento se divide en seis capítulos, el primero consiste en una introducción a la temática, los cuatro siguientes, donde se desarrollan los contenidos, corresponden a las publicaciones científicas, mientras que el último recoge las conclusiones de los capítulos anteriores. El segundo capítulo investiga la efectividad del impuesto sobre las emisiones de carbono en la promoción de la demanda de alimentos medioambientalmente sostenibles, bienestar social y calidad de la dieta en España. Se han diseñado diferentes escenarios de políticas de impuestos basados en las alternativas de costes de emisiones de la Unión Europea. Las elasticidades propias y cruzadas de los precios de dieciséis grupos de alimentos se han calculado a partir del sistema de demanda de alimentos - EASI. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el aumento de precios producido por la reforma de impuestos conlleva a una reducción del consumo de alimentos asociados con mayores emisiones de CO2 equivalente, a la vez que mejora la calidad de la dieta. Aunque se observa que la reforma de los impuestos mejora simultáneamente la salud y el medioambiente, esta parece afectar en mayor grado a segmentos de población con bajos recursos y niveles de bienestar. El tercer capítulo investiga la efectividad de la reforma de los impuestos en el bienestar y la calidad de la dieta de los consumidores. El escenario de política de impuestos se basa en internalizar el coste social de la obesidad en España. Para estimar el precio de los nutrientes y las elasticidades de gasto de la compra de los hogares se utilizan los datos del panel de hogares de Cataluña recolectados en el 2012. Los resultados sugieren una mejora marginal de la calidad de la dieta, aunque ésta no se observa a corto plazo. Además, el consumo de nutrientes dañinos para la salud como ácidos grasos saturados, sodio y colesterol, disminuyen enormemente. Desde el punto de vista de bienestar, el régimen neutral de los impuestos afecta a hogares de todas las clases sociales. En el cuarto capítulo evalúa el vínculo entre las actitudes psicológicas como las actitudes de riesgo, las inconsistencias temporales y el índice de masa corporal (para tener en cuenta la prevalencia de la obesidad) en Cataluña en 2014. El enfoque econométrico se basa en la teoría de la perspectiva y el descuento de tiempo- ambos se utilizan para estimar los parámetros de riesgo y tiempo, respectivamente. Los resultados apoyan una fuerte influencia de la aversión al riesgo en el desarrollo del índice de masa corporal. Además, las inconsistencias de tiempo influyen significativamente en la propensión de los individuos a aumentar el índice de masa corporal. El quinto capítulo reúne a todas las covariables que influyen en el desarrollo de la obesidad mediante la investigación de los factores psicológicos, de comportamiento y socioeconómicos de la obesidad en Cataluña mediante el análisis de modelos de diagramas causales. Los resultados sugieren que existen relaciones significativas directas e indirectas entre la obesidad y la mayoría de las variables. Se observó que la obesidad está directamente influenciada por la creencia que está bajo el control de la gente que la padece, que tiene una imagen corporal correcta y la gente que sufren insatisfacción de su imagen corporal. Además, se encontró una relación indirecta significativa entre la obesidad y las actitudes hacia las personas obesas, edad y el género. En cambio, las actitudes de riesgo no tuvieron ningún efecto directo o indirecto sobre la obesidad. El gobierno debe considerar las interacciones que existen entre los diversos determinantes de la obesidad al formular políticas relacionadas con la esta. ; Postprint (published version)

In this paper, we present international comparisons of potential output growth among several economies -Canada, the euro area, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States- for the period 1991-2004, for which we construct consistent and homogenous capital stock series. The main estimates rely on a structural approach where output of the whole economy is described by a Cobb-Douglas function and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is estimated allowing for possible breaks in the deterministic trend. The results confirm that over the considered period the potential GDP growth has been faster in the United States than in other studied countries, reflecting a combination of higher labour contribution and faster TFP growth. Overall, this paper might help to shed some light on cross-country differences in economic performance over the recent period. ; Nous présentons dans cet article une comparaison internationale de croissance potentielle entre plusieurs économies - Canada, zone euro, France, Allemagne, Italie, Royaume-Uni et Etats-Unis- sur la période 1991-2004, pour lesquelles nous construisons des séries cohérentes et homogènes de stock de capital. Les principaux résultats des estimations reposent sur une approche structurelle dans laquelle la production d'une économie est décrite par une fonction de production Cobb-Douglas et une productivité globale des facteurs (PGF) estimée autour d'une tendance déterministe susceptible de présenter des ruptures. Les résultats confirment que sur la période d'investigation, la croissance potentielle a été plus rapide aux Etats-Unis que dans les autres économies considérées, combinant une plus forte contribution de l'emploi et une croissance de la PGF plus rapide. De plus, ce papier permet de mettre en lumière des différences internationales de performance économique sur la période récente.

The conversion of biologically rich areas into agricultural land undermines the capacity of these lands to sustain and maintain vital ecosystem functions. This is mostly the case when the conversion includes the simplification to a monoculture system such as that of oil palm. Oil palm grows best in tropical humid areas where the most biodiverse forests are located, which can threaten local biodiversity and natural ecosystems. At the same time, oil palm represents an economic opportunity for the local community. Today, globally, oil palm is the most important and productive vegetable oil, grown on more than 13.5 million hectares of tropical areas. Indonesia is the world's largest producer of this oil and houses rainforests and rich biodiversity. Recognizing these economic benefits and the environmental externalities, there is a need for policies that reconcile trade-offs of growing oil palm. This is particularly urgent in Indonesia, since the country plays a crucial role in mitigating global warming. Furthermore, the expansion of oil palm in the country is expected to continue as the national government envisages large investments in the oil palm sector and adoption of the crop is rapidly increasing among smallholder farmers. Given the economic gains associated with high return-to-labour, adoption of oil palm is multiplying among smallholder farmers. Often, these farmers have production systems that support biodiversity and related ecosystem functions, or retain remnant forest in their oil palm plantations. These remnant forests are valuable habitat for biodiversity. Indonesian oil palm farmers therefore have an important role in restoring or maintaining biodiversity. Policies that foster pro-environmental behaviors by adopting biodiversity-friendly practices in oil palm plantations are urgently needed. Such policies can draw on social-psychological theories, which argue that behavioral change is influenced by cognitive processes that involve intrinsic factors such as perceptions and intentions. These factors are less examined in the context of agricultural innovation adoption. This dissertation contributes to this gap by analyzing the connection between perceptions, intentions, and actions taken, based on the case of Indonesian oil palm farmers. Specifically, we address four research objectives. First, we analyze farmers' perception of changes in ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, and their respective subjective valuation. Second, we explore factors that are correlated to the farmers' environmental concerns. Third, we investigate the causal effects of two environmental policies on tree planting behavior. Lastly, we explore mediation pathways that explain how the provision of information and the combination of information with delivery of free seedlings can increase the adoption of tree planting through changes in the perceptions and intentions a person holds. The present dissertation consisting of four chapters is organized as follows. Chapter 1 presents an overview of the context in which the dissertation was conducted. It provides a background on the current environmental global challenges caused by land use change and outlines the research gaps and objective of this dissertation. Chapter 2 addresses the first and second research questions. Drawing on environmental psychology studies, I provide a descriptive analysis on oil palm farmers' perceptions on the change of ecosystem functions in oil palm cultivation and explore factors that shape farmers' concern for the environment. I employ 5-point Likert scales to construct these psychological measures and use a multivariate probit and an ordinary least-squares model to perform the econometric analysis. I start by exploring farmers' perceptions towards these ecosystem functions in oil palm, and then link these perceptions to observe the relationship with the construct of environmental concern, and finally, I examine factors that influence environmental concern of oil palm smallholders. The empirical analysis provides evidence that farmers value and perceive a decrease on water and soil-related ecosystem functions. At the same time, farmers perceive an increase on provisioning services which is linked to the economic gains for cultivating oil palm. Our analysis further indicates that the perceived increase of provisioning services might outweigh farmers' ecological motives to conserve areas with high biodiversity value. Chapter 3 provides experimental evidence from a randomized controlled trial to evaluate two environmental policies to promote the adoption of tree planting in oil palm cultivation. The policies address knowledge gaps by disseminating information about this practice through a movie and an illustrative manual, and addresses structural constraints by distributing seedlings for free in addition to information. We focus on three outcomes: changes in perceptions of the ecosystem regarding oil palm, the intention to plant, and actual adoption. I estimate intent-to-treat effects and conduct a path analysis on psychological components to understand the mediating channels through which the interventions influence the adoption of tree planting. We find that both interventions have a positive and significant effect on changing perceptions, intentions, and the actual adoption of tree planting. The results of the path analysis suggest that perceptions and intention fully explain the effect of information dissemination, while partially explaining the effect of the combination of information and delivery of seedlings. Chapter 4 presents and summarizes the findings on the previous chapters to draw feasible policy implications and outlines the main limitations of this study. It also suggests future research directions.

[spa] La tesis titulada 'Essays on the economics of crime: Determinants of crime in an urban context' tiene el objetivo de analizar los principales determinantes de la delincuencia en el contexto urbano. En concreto, analiza en profundidad los efectos de los partidos de fútbol jugados por el Fútbol Club Barcelona en la delincuencia con un objetivo tanto de análisis espacial como temporal. Adicionalmente, se analiza otra dimensión de la delincuencia: la percepción del delito. Para tales objetivos, se divide la tesis en 3 principales capítulos que reflejan 3 artículos que pueden ser leídos de forma separada o conjunta. En el primer capítulo, se analiza el efecto que los partidos de fútbol tiene sobre la distribución espacial de la delincuencia en la ciudad de Barcelona. Para tal objetivo, se utiliza una base de datos que por una parte, contiene todos los partidos de fútbol jugados por el F.C.B (tanto los jugados en casa como los jugados en otros campos de fútbol). Adicionalmente, y como gran novedad, se utiliza una base de datos única en España que contiene todos los delitos registrados por los Mossos de Esquadra i la Guardia Urbana desde 2007 a 2011 con información específica de donde han ocurrido, cuando han ocurrido y de que tipología delictiva se trata. Esta base de datos, permite realizar un análisis primero para el conjunto de toda la ciudad de Barcelona, y luego para aquellas secciones censales cercanas al estadio del Campo del F.C.B. La metodología utilizada consiste en un análisis exploratorio de datos espaciales mediante funciones de densidad de Kernel y la comparación de estos valores cuando existen partidos de fútbol jugados en casa y fuera de casa. De forma adicional, se añade un análisis de regresión que consiste en una primera estimación con datos de serie temporal a nivel de día para analizar los efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre los hurtos y los delitos violentos en toda la ciudad de Barcelona. A continuación, también se realiza una estimación espacial que consiste en la estimación del efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre los delitos violentos y sobre los hurtos a nivel de sección censal y día. En el segundo capítulo de la tesis, se realiza un análisis de los efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre el desplazamiento de hasta 8 tipologías delictivas en la ciudad de Barcelona. El análisis se realiza mediante los datos descritos anteriormente. La metodología utilizada consiste tanto en un análisis descriptivo de todas las tipologías delictivas al nivel de hora, día, semana y mes, como en un análisis de regresión a nivel hora de los efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre el desplazamiento de los delitos en el tiempo. Los resultados reflejan que ciertas tipologías delictivas parecen aumentar después del partido de fútbol mientras que otras, como el consumo de substancias estupefacientes y los delitos contra la seguridad vial, parecen disminuir. Finalmente, el último capítulo analiza, mediante datos de la encuesta de victimización de Barcelona, que determina la percepción del delito de los individuos. Analizo desde los determinantes individuales como sexo, edad, nacionalidad o renta, hasta los determinantes de barrio. Es decir, variables relacionadas con el entorno de orden y del aspecto del barrio. Finalmente, en este mismo capítulo se analiza como el simple contacto con la policía puede incrementar o disminuir el nivel de percepción del delito. La metodología utilizada es un análisis multinivel logístico que tiene en cuenta tanto el orden de la variable dependiente como las variables independientes a dos niveles. ; [eng] In this thesis, I draw on these theoretical models from the criminological literature and on the empirical tools from the field of economics to analyze crime from the perspective of economics. I use the city of Barcelona, known worldwide for its ability to attract tourists, as my area of study. To the best of my knowledge, no similar crime research has previously been undertaken in this city and, therefore, the results of this thesis should provide interesting outcomes for policy makers. In Chapter 2, entitled "Should football teams be taxed? Determining crime externalities from football matches", I begin by demonstrating the economic importance of Football Club Barcelona. I then analyze the effect of Football Club Barcelona matches on crime from a spatial perspective. That is, I first evaluate the effect of the number of spectators on crime (thefts and assaults) by comparing crime rates on match days, both home and away, and days that are very similar in all other characteristics apart from the fact that no match has been played. I analyze two types of crime given that their determinants are likely to be very different: first, I focus on thefts, where the concentration of people in space and time may introduce incentives, or reduce costs, to potential offenders; and, second, I focus on assaults (fights and brawls in the main), whose drivers would appear to be more closely related to hooliganism, i.e., unlawful behavior related to football matches, such as fights, drunken disorder or damage to the belongings/property of others. In the next step, I analyze the impact of a football match on the spatial distribution of crime, by carrying out an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) of the census tracts around the stadium on football match days and on days free of football. Employing econometric models that account for the positive skewed distribution and the over dispersion of the data (e.g. negative binomial regressions), I analyze how the scheduling of a football match can modify the distribution of crime in the city of Barcelona. In the case of thefts, the results indicate an increase in the number of crimes for the whole city of Barcelona on home match days, especially, in those census tracts that are within a 1-km radius of the stadium. This suggests that despite the increase in the number of police officers deployed around the stadium, pick pockets are attracted to crowds where the rewards are likely to be higher and the probability of being detained lower. These results are confirmed by the placebo test that shows a lower number of crimes are recorded in the census tracts around the stadium when Football Club Barcelona plays away. In the case of assaults, a similar spatial pattern to that described for thefts is found, although the overall impact for the whole city is not significant. This result suggests that there is a marked displacement effect towards the census tracts around the football stadium from other parts of the city. This phenomenon would seem to reflect the hooliganism that is present in and around most football stadiums in Spain. As such, the results obtained in this chapter provide public administrations with the opportunity to raise their revenue levels by taxing the crime externalities generated by football teams. In Chapter 3, entitled "How time shapes crime: the displacement effects of football matches in the city of Barcelona", I purposefully omit the spatial dimension of crime in order to focus on the temporal. I begin by undertaking an analysis of the temporal profile of crime for the city of Barcelona. That is, I carry out a very specific analysis of different types of crime and their unique temporal patterns. I specifically observe temporal crime patterns on a daily, weekly and monthly basis to determine whether they actually follow a clear pattern over time. I then conduct an hourly analysis to examine the impact of a major event, in this case a football match, on different types of crime. The results show that the football matches played by Football Club Barcelona reduce the levels of certain types of crime during the period of the game due to the incapacitation effect, i.e., potential criminals are incapacitated by the fact of their watching the game. Moreover, I find a reduction in those crimes typically reported only by the police, including driving crimes and drug consumption, due to what I identify as a substitution effect, i.e., police officers substitute their duty of reporting crimes for that of safeguarding citizen security. The consequence is an apparent fall in these types of crime, although the reality may be quite different. Finally, the results also show that in the hours leading up to a game and in the hours following the final whistle there appears to be significant increases in certain types of crime such as pick pocketing and violent crimes. Chapters 2 and 3 give more evidence on the determinants of crime and specifically on crime behavior modifications (as regards both time and place displacements) attributable to major events such as football matches. The results obtained provide police agencies with a better understanding of the way in which criminals shift their decisions regarding the commission of crimes in relation to major events: on the one hand, when criminals decide to commit their crimes on days when a football match is being played; and, on the other, where criminals choose to commit these crimes on match days. Placing these results into the context of public economics, football matches generate negative externalities in the form of higher levels of crime, which serves as a justification for policy makers to find new ways of financing the public sector and compensating the costs of these events. Moreover, and given that tackling crime is one of the main goals of police agencies, Chapters 2 and 3 also shed light on criminal behavior. Specifically, the results reported in these chapters help understand the way in which criminals modify their target preferences (both in terms of time and space) and, therefore, how the police might best deploy police officers in time and space. However, since the early eighties there has been an increasing interest among police officers to ensure that that people not only feel safer, but that they have an enhanced perception of their own safety (Cordner, 2010). Thus, the reduction of the fear of crime has been a major objective of the police given its impact on individuals' well-being. For instance, a robbery not only has an impact on the victim itself, it also affects the individuals that witness the act (and those who subsequently know about it) since they are likely to feel unsafe and to modify their behaviour accordingly. Networking and social interactions can spread this insecurity among individuals consequently affecting individuals' well-being. If the authorities are incapable of ensuring that people perceive their personal integrity as being guaranteed and that they live in a safe environment, public efforts and resources devoted to crime prevention and control may well not be assessed as fulfilling their primary objectives. In this sense, assessing the determinants of fear of crime and of crime risk perception are crucial for the public sector as they tackle the potential negative effects on individuals' well-being. Community policing is the policy that has been used since the early eighties in an attempt at assessing crime risk perception determinants as well as the potential factors that may reduce crime. It consists of a more human approach to society as the police seek to get closer to the real problems and fears of the citizens. The level of crime risk perception is not only determined by crime or individual characteristics such as gender or age, but also by the characteristics of the neighborhoods. The broken window thesis (Wilson and Kelling, 1982) links three important concepts in neighborhoods: disorder, fear and crime. Specifically, this thesis states that the link between the three concepts may start with a minor disorder such as a broken window. If left unchecked, it will generate the perception that no one cares about it. Hence, this minor disorder may generate increasing levels of fear. Levels of distrust among the neighbours consequently rise and they start to behave differently - staying at home more and socializing less with each other. In turn, this leads to a reduction in natural surveillance permitting further disorder and minor crimes. In sum, crime risk perception is known to be an important determinant of individuals' well-being. Therefore, it is crucial, especially for governments, to understand its determinants and those (public) policies that can reduce it. Among those policies, public resources devoted to police forces emerge as a key instrument not only to tackle criminal activity but also to impact on citizenship crime risk perception. In this framework, the aim of Chapter 4, entitled "When police patrols matter. The effect of police proximity on citizens' crime risk perception", is precisely to analyze the determinants (both individual and neighborhood) of citizens' crime risk perception for the city of Barcelona focusing on the effect of police proximity and taking into account spatial aspects of neighborhood characteristics. We measure, according to the main theoretical theories, how the simplest contact of a police officer with citizens' can affect their level of crime risk perception. In this sense, we analyze how police policies consisting of an approach to citizens, may be effective in terms of reducing peoples' crime risk perception. After controlling for possible problems of endogeneity of police forces and crime risk perception and the potential sorting of individuals across neighborhoods, our results show that crime risk perception is reduced when non-victims (randomly) interact with police forces. Moreover, neighborhood variables, such as proxies for social capital and for the level of incivilities, as well as individual characteristics have an impact on individuals' crime risk perception.

Investigating the factors which determine bank profitability has been a hot topic for decades, however, there is still no consensus among researchers, practitioners, or policymakers regarding the set of factors that affect bank profitability due to the differences in social, economic, legal, and technical contexts across banking systems all over the world which give rise to the existence of many econometric specifications and samples design. In this paper, we survey 65 studies on bank profitability which covers the banking systems in three major blocs; the US, the EU, and the rest of the world (RoW). We followed two approaches; the first is to classify the surveyed studies into subgroups based on the used measure of profitability (ROA or ROE), sample size (small or large), and the time frame (the period) that data covers in each study (short or long). We then trace the impact of each of the factors of profitability (defined earlier) on the measure of profitability within the aforementioned subgroups across the different geographical areas. We call this approach "between blocks". The second approach was to trace the impact of each factor on ROA or ROE within each geographical area; namely the US, EU, and RoW. We call this approach the "within blocks". Factors are said to have an impact on ROA or ROE based on a set of rules we design within the paper. Based on "between blocks", we find three factors with consistent impact on ROA in all subgroups (CAP, CE, and GGDP) which are all positively related to ROA; One factor (CR) was found to have a negative impact on ROA in three subgroups. Comparing the impact of each factor on ROE across the three subgroups, we find only one factor (CE) that is positively related to ROE in three subgroups. Based on "within blocks", and within the US, factors that are found to be positively related to ROA are CAP, CE, GGDP, and INF, while CR is negatively related to ROA. On the other hand, factors that are found to be positively related to ROE are CE and NII, while CR and LIQ are negatively related to ROE. In the EU, factors that are found to be positively related to ROA are CAP, CE, and GGDP, while CR, LIQ, BSD, and INF are found to be negatively related to ROA. On the other hand, factors that are found to be positively related to ROE are CE and GGDP, while CR is the only factor with a negative impact on ROE. Finally, factors that are found to have a positive impact on ROA within RoW are CAP and CE, while CR and LIQ are negatively related to ROA. When it comes to ROE, CE and GGDP have a positive impact while LIQ is negatively related to ROE. To check for the robustness of our findings, we decided to account for the "quality" of each of the surveyed papers to assure that they are equally weighted in terms of each paper's quality. Hence, we have to consider only the papers which come from top journals, or in some cases, bad journals but the papers are of high quality. To perform this task, we build a "quality index" which rules out all the papers that are of scholarly low quality by defining some rules. As a result of applying this index, our surveyed studies were downsized from 65 to only 45 studies. Our findings confirm the results obtained before the index was applied which confirms that the inclusion of such index represents a special case of the approaches we developed in tracing the impacts of determinants of bank profitability internationally and, therefore, our results are robust. ; Using the fixed effect estimator, this paper analyzes the profitability of 11 private banks in Syria over the period from 2007:Q1 to 2018:Q4. To evaluate the impact of the Syrian crisis (civil war), we separately consider the pre-crisis period, 2007:Q1-2012:Q4, and the crisis period of 2013:Q1-2018:Q4. Our profitability determinants include bank-specific characteristics as well as industry-specific and macroeconomic factors, some of which have not been considered in previous studies. The inclusion of these additional factors as well as the separate consideration of the crisis years allow us to gain new insights into what determines the profitability of private banks in Syria. Our results clearly show that there exist large differences in profitability among our sample banks and that a significant amount of this variation can be explained by the factors included in our analyses. ; Unlike the past literature which focuses on studying the effects of bank efficiency on the bank performance (in the same period) using different methodologies to assess how differences in the efficiencies obtained across the different methods lead to different impacts, we test the impacts of bank efficiency of the Syrian banking sector in normal times on bank performance (risk & profitability) during the subsequent crisis. We extend the work of Assaf et al. (2019) by opting to use two different methodologies; Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and Free Distribution Approach (FDA) to estimate cost and profit efficiencies during normal times and assess how the different methodologies lead to different impacts of the estimated efficiencies on bank performance during crisis times assuming two scenarios for the estimation of inefficiencies; the first is a time-invariant inefficiency while the second is a time-varying inefficiency. With respect to bank risk, we find that cost efficiency during normal times was translated into increasing banks risk, under time-invariant and time-varying inefficiency. However, we find that profit efficiency has a negative impact on bank risk during the subsequent crisis under timeinvariant and time-varying inefficiency. This suggests that cost efficiency may better proxy management quality, while profit efficiency may partially reflect temporary high returns during normal times from low-risk investments that are reversed during the subsequent crisis. With respect to bank profitability, we find that cost efficiency, during normal times, was translated into helping banks to increase their profitability under the time-invariant inefficiency. However, the results were contradictory under the time-varying inefficiency. On the other hand, profit efficiency in the pre-crisis period seems to be conclusive with respect to its negative impact on profitability during the subsequent crisis. This was proven based on the results of two models under time-invariant inefficiency and one model under timevarying inefficiency suggesting that bank managers were tending to engage in high revenues-low risk activities in the period prior to the outbreak of the Syrian crisis. Findings have policy implications and imply policymakers, regulators and supervisors should consider more sophisticated means of monitoring and surveillance of banks characterized with high-cost efficiency as early as possible in order to decrease and minimize the occurrence of potential problems that might surface during future financial crises. In addition, bank managers should focus on utilizing policies and procedures that promote and foster cost efficiency, which may drive better bank performance and enhance the response of banks to possible negative shocks during any subsequent crises.

In the past decades, the issues in real estate have received an increasing amount of attention worldwide. One of the main reasons is that the boom-bust cycles in real estate markets were attributed to the underlying causes of numerous financial crises, such as the Nordic banking crisis in the early 1990s, Japan's "Lost Decade" of 1991–2000, the East Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and the recent global financial crisis erupted in the American 2007 (Bordo and Jeanne, 2002; Crowe et al., 2013; Hartmann, 2015; Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009). Real estate is deemed to be an important factor in the real economy as it makes a major contribution to GDP and provides prosperity and jobs in most countries. In addition, real estate also plays a crucial role in the financial system, since construction projects and residential property purchases are usually credit-financed. Leveraged banks rely heavily on real estate collateral to reduce the risk of much f their household and commercial lending. A widespread downturn in property prices will have a severe impact on the financial stability. Since the explosion of the global financial crisis in 2007, a considerable number of economic models and methods have been designed specifically to anatomize the root causes and key events of it. As a part of the growing body of literature, the focus of this study centres on the old question of what we can learn from this crisis. However, this thesis attempts to provide different insights by employing a newly developed empirical method and economic concepts. There are several lessons that we can learn from the financial crisis. First, countries should watch for early warning and now-casting hints signalling a future crisis. As the crisis in many countries was caused by excessive increases in property prices and/or rapid credit growth, one of the major tasks is to develop renewed empirical methods and econometric tests to detect excessive asset price developments. Meanwhile, these methods are of particular importance in the sense of macroprudential policy. Broadly speaking, macroprudential policy is seen as aiming at financial stability. In terms of the specific goals of macroprudential policy, the general view is that it is all about limiting the risk and costs of systemic crises. Since boom-bust cycles in real estate markets have been major factors in systemic financial crises and therefore need to be at the forefront of macroprudential policy (Hartmann, 2015). Against this background, we employ the newly developed recursive unit root tests to spot the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in the Chinese and German housing price cycle. Because both countries have experienced large markup in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, there are increasing worries that they might be destined to a similar fate. Nevertheless, we find that actual house prices are not to be disconnected significantly from underlying economic fundamentals and there is no evidence of an emerging speculative housing bubble at the present time in China and Germany. Further to this, we also investigate house price developments across other OECD countries. In contrast to Germany, the majority of OECD countries, such as Ireland, New Zealand, Spain, the Netherlands, the UK and the US, have experienced strong house price growth in the early 2000s, which cumulated in 2007–2008 into an astounding burst of speculative house price bubbles. Aiming to assess the genuine validity and reliability of the univariate screening toolkit, we also provide the test statistics for these countries. The test results deliver timely warnings of underlying misalignments, vulnerabilities and tail risks that predisposed the international housing market to the financial crisis in 2007–2009. The second lesson we could learn is that policymakers should also be mindful of the channels through which the financial crisis erupted. Since the explosion of the crisis in 2007, most of the blame has been placed on the regulatory authorities and investment banks. Nevertheless, in the instance of the subprime mortgage catastrophe, we should not point the finger only at them. Rather, this crisis was the collective creation of the world's central banks, homeowners, mortgage lenders and investors (Petroff, 2007). Against this background, this thesis also attempts to scrutinize the housing investment behaviour of households. Based on Coeurdacier et al.'s(2011) earlier work, we develop a stylised stochastic model to show that risky steady state house prices have a significant impact on housing investment choice. With increasing risk from aggregate income, the financial market and the housing market, the model predicts that agents tend to invest more in housing and financial assets. We also address the issue of housing investment from the perspective of housing affordability in a dynamic life-cycle modelling framework. The main purpose is to assess quantitatively the impact of the affordability constraints on households' optimal consumption, mortgage, portfolio choices and poverty status over the lifetime. Meanwhile, we also investigate the interaction between borrower-based macroprudential policies and social policies aimed at improving poverty and fostering home ownership and credit availability. Through studies of different scenarios, we find that the affordability constraints are crucial determinants of households' investment behaviour and their poverty status in both prime and subprime mortgage markets. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis implies that in light of the age profile of households and features of mortgage credit markets, the magnitudes of the borrower-based macroprudential policies are needed to be carefully assessed in order to minimise the potential conflicts with other social policies. ; In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten haben die Immobilienprobleme zunehmende Aufmerksamkeit weltweit erhalten. Einer der Hauptgründe dafür ist, dass der Boom-Bust-Zyklus auf den Immobilienmärkten den eigentlichen Ursachen der zahlreichen Finanzkrisen zugeordnet wurde, wie zum Beispiel der nordischen Bankenkrise in den frühen 1990er Jahren, Japans "verlorenem Jahrzehnt" von 1991 bis 2000, der ostasiatischen Finanzkrise im Jahr 1997 und der jüngsten globalen Finanzkrise, die in Amerika 2007 ausbrach (Bordo and Jeanne, 2002; Crowe et al., 2013; Hartmann, 2015; Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009). Immobilien gelten als ein wichtiger Faktor in der Realwirtschaft, da sie einen wichtigen Beitrag zum BIP leisten und zu Wohlstand und Arbeitschancen in den meisten Ländern beitragen. Darüber hinaus spielen Immobilien auch eine entscheidende Rolle im Finanzsystem, da Bauvorhaben und der Kauf von Wohneigentum in der Regel mit Hilfe von Krediten finanziert werden. Mit Fremdkapital finanzierte Banken verlassen sich stark auf Immobiliensicherheiten, um das Risiko der Privathaushalts- und Gewerbekredite zu reduzieren. Ein umfassender Rückgang der Immobilienpreise hat einen starken Einfluss auf die Stabilität des Finanzsystems. Seit dem Ausbruch der globalen Finanzkrise im Jahr 2007, wurden eine beträchtliche Anzahl von Wirtschaftsmodellen und Methoden speziell entwickelt, um die Ursachen und deren Schlüsselereignisse analysieren zu können. Als Teil der wachsenden Ansammlung von Literatur fokussiert sich diese Studie auf die alte Frage, was wir aus dieser Krise lernen können. Diese Doktorarbeit versucht allerdings unterschiedliche Einblicke durch Einsatz einer neu entwickelten empirischen Methode und wirtschaftlicher Konzepte anzubieten. Es gibt einige Lektionen, die wir aus der Finanzkrise lernen können. Zunächst sollten die Länder die Frühwarnungen und kurzfristigen Hinweise, die eine künftige Krise signalisieren, dringend beachten. Da die Krise in vielen Ländern von übermäßigem Immobilien-Preisanstieg und/oder rasantem Kreditwachstum verursacht wurde, ist es eine der wichtigsten Aufgaben, erneuerte empirische Methoden und ökonometrische Tests zu entwickeln, um einen übermäßigen Anstieg der Vermögenspreise zu erkennen. Zugleich sind diese ökonometrischen Tests im Sinne der makroprudenziellen Politik von besonderer Bedeutung, weil Boom-Bust-Zyklen an den Immobilienmärkten die Hauptfaktoren in systemischen Finanzkrisen darstellen (Hartmann, 2015). Allgemein gesprochen kann makroprudenzielle Politik als Ausrichtung auf Finanzstabilität gesehen werden. In Bezug auf die spezifischen Ziele der makroprudenziellen Politik ist die allgemeine Sicht, dass es sich um die Begrenzung der Risiken und Kosten der systemischen Krisen handelt. Vor diesem Hintergrund verwenden wir die neu entwickelten rekursiven Einheitswurzeltests, um den Anfang und das Ende der möglichen Spekulationsblasen im chinesischen und deutschen Immobilienpreiszyklus herauszufinden. Da beide Länder starke Preiserhöhungen nach der globalen Finanzkrise von 2007-2009 erlebt haben, gibt es zunehmende Sorge, dass ihnen ein ähnliches Schicksal bestimmt sein könnte. Allerdings finden wir, dass die aktuellen Immobilienpreise nicht von den wirtschaftlichen Fundamentalfaktoren deutlich zu trennen sind, und es gibt zurzeit keine Hinweise auf eine aufkommende spekulative Immobilienblase in China und Deutschland. Überdies haben wir Immobilienpreisentwicklung in den anderen OECD-Ländern geprüft. Im Gegensatz zu Deutschland haben die meisten OECD-Länder, wie Irland, Neuseeland, Spanien, die Niederlande, Großbritannien und die USA, ein starkes Immobilienpreiswachstum in den frühen 2000er Jahren erlebt, das in den Jahren 2007-2008 kumulierte und zu dem erstaunlichen Platzen von spekulativen Immobilienpreisblasen geführt hat. Um die echte Gültigkeit und Zuverlässigkeit des eindimensionalen Screening-Toolkit zu belegen, legen wir auch die Untersuchungsstatistiken für diese Länder vor. Der Untersuchungsnachweis liefert rechtzeitige Warnungen vor zugrunde liegender Falschausrichtung, Schwachstellen und Restrisiken, die den internationalen Immobilienmarkt in der Finanzkrise der Jahre 2007-2009 fehlgelenkt haben. In der zweiten Lektion erfahren wir, dass die politischen Entscheidungsträger sich der Kanäle bewusst sein sollten, durch die die Finanzkrise ausgebrochen ist. Seit dem Ausbruch der Krise im Jahr 2007 wurden die Vorwürfe überwiegend gegen die Regulierungsbehörden und Investmentbanken erhoben. Dennoch sollten wir im Falle der Subprime-Hypothekenkrise nicht nur mit dem Finger auf diese zeigen. Diese Krise war eigentlich die kollektive Erschaffung der weltweiten Zentralbanken, Hausbesitzer, Kreditgeber und Investoren (Petroff, 2007). Vor diesem Hintergrund versucht diese Arbeit auch das Investitionsverhalten der Haushalte in Immobilien eingehend zu untersuchen. Basierend auf Coeurdacier et al.'s (2011) früherer Arbeit entwickeln wir einem stilisierten stochastischen Modell um zu zeigen, dass riskante stationäre Immobilienpreise einen wesentlichen Einfluss auf das Wahlverhalten bei Immobilieninvestition haben. Mit zunehmendem Risiko aus dem Gesamteinkommen, dem Finanzmarkt und dem Immobilienmarkt prognostiziert das Modell, dass Agenten tendenziell mehr in Immobilien und Finanzanlagen investieren. Wir befassen uns auch mit der Frage der Immobilieninvestitionen aus der Sicht der Immobilienerschwinglichkeit in einem dynamischen Lebenszyklus des Modellierungsrahmens. Der Hauptzweck besteht darin, die Auswirkungen der Erschwinglichkeitsbeschränkungen auf den optimalen Konsum, die Portfolioauswahl, die Hypothek und den Armutsstatus der privaten Haushalte über die gesamte Lebensdauer quantitativ zu beurteilen. Außerdem untersuchen wir auch die Interaktion zwischen Kreditnehmerbasierte makroprudenzielle Maßnahmen und sozialpolitischen Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der Armut und zur Förderung von Wohneigentum sowie Kreditverfügbarkeit. Durch Untersuchungen von verschiedenen Szenarien verdeutlichen die Ergebnisse der Modellkalibrierung, dass die Erschwinglichkeitseinschränkungen entscheidende Faktoren für Investitionsverhalten der Haushalte und ihren Armutstatus im Prime und im Subprime-Hypothekenmarkt sind. Darüber hinaus impliziert die Sensitivitätsanalyse, dass angesichts des Altersprofiles von Haushalten und die Grundzüge von Hypothekenmärkten die Einflußgrößen der Kreditnehmerbasierten makroprudenziellen Maßnahmen sorgfältig beurteilt werden müssen, um mögliche Konflikte mit anderen Sozialpolitiken zu minimieren.

Cross-country panel data are used to assess the effect of free-trade agreements on flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Free-trade agreements are found to have a significant positive effect on FDI flows, and free-trade agreements are found to matter more for the smaller members of the agreement. For example, the North American Free-Trade Agreement's (NAFTA) effect on FDI flows into Mexico is much larger than its effect on flows into the United States. These cross country results are used to assess NAFTA's effect on FDI flows into Mexico. After controlling for a set of other factors such as an increase in worldwide FDI flows the trade agreement is found to generate FDI flows nearly 60 percent higher than they would have been without the agreement.

The consequences of human activities on the ecosystem and the environment have its inherent implications. This has been a topical discourse among energy economist /environmental practitioners and government officials saddled with the mandate to formulate energy blueprint and action plans. Thus, the need to carefully underpin the root cause and propose possible ways to mitigate against the protection of the environment is pertinent in a time of global consciousness towards green energy sources. This thesis is based upon this motivation. The thesis is structured into four parts. First, the investigation of energy use and economic growth nexus from 1960 to 2016 in South Africa while accounting for capital, labor, and carbon dioxide emissions. We applied Bayer and Hanck (2013) combined co-integration approach, Pesaran, et al. (2001) bounds test and Kripfganz and Schneider (2018) critical values and approximate p-values. The empirical evidence finds support for a long-run equilibrium relationship among investigated variables. The Granger causality test indicates one-way causality from energy use to economic growth, validating the energy-led growth hypothesis. Our study found an inverted U-shaped pattern between energy use and economic growth in the long run. This finding suggests that at a higher level of economic development there is less intensification of energy consumption, hence, signifying a decline in energy intensity while validating energy efficiency in South Africa. The second strands of this thesis proceed to examine the long-run and causal interaction between, renewable energy consumption, non-renewable energy consumption, and economic growth in a carbon function. The current study incorporates natural resources rent to the model as an additional variable. Empirical evidence is based on a balanced panel data between annual periods of 1996-2014 for selected EU-16 countries. The Kao test reveals a cointegration between carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, natural resources rent, renewable, and nonrenewable energy consumption. The Panel Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive Auto regressive distributive lag model (PMG-ARDL) suggests a positive significant relationship between the countries' natural resource rent and CO2 emissions in the long-run. Implying that the overdependence on natural resource rent affects environmental sustainability of the panel countries if conservation and management options are ignored. Our study affirms that nonrenewable energy consumption and economic growth increase carbon emission flaring while renewable consumption declines CO2 emissions. The panel causality analysis reveals a feedback mechanism between economic growth, renewable, and nonrenewable energy consumption. We further observed a feedback causality between natural resources rent and economic growth. Effective policy implications could be drawn toward cleaner and environmentally friendly energy sources, especially in attaining the Sustainable Development Goals. The third strand of this dissertation offers a new perspective to the electricity-led growth hypothesis for the case of Pakistan. The dissertation revisits the interaction between electricity consumption, real gross domestic product and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. To this end, our study relies on annual data from 1971-2014 for the econometric analysis while accounting for the structural break(s). According to the Maki cointegration test, a cointegration equilibrium relationship exists among electricity consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions. The empirical findings from Toda-Yamamoto causality test provided the following insights: (i) A unidirectional causality was found running from economic growth to electricity consumption. Thus, this study validates the conservative hypothesis, meaning that in Pakistan, conservative energy strategies cannot harm economic progress. (ii) Causality was also found running from electricity consumption to carbon dioxide emissions. This implies that industrial activities trigger an increase in carbon emissions flaring which in return translates into environmental degradation. This outcome has inherent policy implications which are further discussed in the conclusion section. Finally, the last section of this dissertation dwells on electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth for the case of Zimbabwe. To achieve this, the study set off by examining the stationarity properties of the variables under review with the Zivot-Andrews (1992) unit root test that accounts for a single structural break. Subsequently, Maki (2012) cointegration test, which accounts for multiple structural breaks, is applied for equilibrium relationship between the variables under review while the long run regression of dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) is employed for long-run coefficients as estimation procedures. In order to account for the direction of causality flow the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) causality test is used for annual frequency data set spanning from 1971-2014. Empirical evidence from the Maki cointegration test shows that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and real gross domestic product per capita over the sampled period. The long-run regression suggests that there exists a positive statistically significant relationship between real income and electricity consumption. Thus, corroborating the electricity-led growth hypothesis. This result is supported by the causality test, as one-way causality is observed running from electricity consumption to real gross domestic product. Thus, this is suggestive to government administrators and policymakers that the Zimbabwean economy is electricity dependent. However, there is a tradeoff for environmental quality. As increase in electricity consumption increases carbon dioxide emissions. The need for diversification of Zimbabwe energy portfolio to cleaner and environmentally friendly energy sources is recommended given the world global consciousness for cleaner energy consumption. Keywords: Energy conservation hypothesis, energy consumption, combined cointegration, Dynamic causality, Renewable energy consumption, non-renewable, Electricity Consumption, Economic Growth, Maki Cointegration, South Africa, and Pakistan. ; ÖZ: İnsan faaliyetlerinin ekosistem ve çevre üzerindeki sonuçlarının kendine has etkileri vardır. Bu, enerji planını ve eylem planlarını formüle etme zorunluluğuyla ilgilenen enerji ekonomisti / çevre pratisyenleri ve hükümet yetkilileri arasında güncel bir konu olmuştur. Bu nedenle, çevresel problemlerin kök nedenini dikkatlice araştırmak ve çevrenin korunmasına karşı önlem almanın olası yollarını önerme ihtiyacı, yeşil enerji kaynaklarına karşı küresel bilinçlenme döneminde geçerlidir. Bu tez, bu motivasyona dayanmaktadır. Tez dört bölüme ayrılmıştır. İlk olarak, Güney Afrika'da 1960'tan 2016'ya enerji kullanımı ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi, sermaye, emek ve karbondioksit emisyonları dikkate alınarak araştırılmıştır. Bu ilişkiyi araştırmak için Bayer ve Hanck (2013) eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı, Pesaran ve ark. (2001) sınır testi ve Kripfganz ve Schneider (2018) kritik değerleri ve yaklaşık p değerleri uygulanmıştır. Ampirik kanıt, incelenen değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu desteklemektedir. Granger nedensellik testi, enerji kaynaklı büyüme hipotezini doğrulayarak, enerji kullanımından ekonomik büyümeye tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmamızda, uzun vadede enerji kullanımı ile ekonomik büyüme arasında ters U şeklinde bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu bulgu, daha yüksek bir ekonomik gelişme düzeyinde, enerji tüketiminde daha az yoğunlaşma olduğunu, dolayısıyla Güney Afrika'da enerji verimliliğini doğrularken enerji yoğunluğunda bir düşüş olduğunu göstermektedir. Tezin ikinci kısmında, bir karbon fonksiyonunda yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, yenilenemeyen enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun dönem ve nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmektedir. Bu çalışma, kiralanan doğal kaynaklar modele ek bir değişken olarak dahil edilmiştir. Ampirik sonuçlar, seçilen AB-16 ülkeleri için yıllık 1996-2014 dönemleri arasındaki dengeli bir panel verilerine dayanmaktadır. Kao testi, karbondioksit emisyonları, ekonomik büyüme, doğal kaynaklar kirası, yenilenebilir ve yenilenemeyen enerji tüketimi arasında bir uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Panel Havuzlanmış Ortalama Grup-Gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif model (PMG-ARDL) sonuçları, uzun vadede ülkelerin doğal kaynak kirası ve CO2 emisyonları arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Koruma ve yönetim seçeneklerinin göz ardı edilmesi durumunda, doğal kaynak kirasına aşırı bağımlılığın panel ülkelerinin çevresel sürdürülebilirliğini etkilediği ortaya konmuştur. Çalışmamız, yenilenemeyen enerji tüketiminin ve ekonomik büyümenin karbon salınımını artırdığını, yenilenebilir tüketimin CO2 emisyonlarını azalttığını doğrulamaktadır. Panel nedensellik analizi, ekonomik büyüme, yenilenebilir ve yenilenemeyen enerji tüketimi arasında bir geri bildirim mekanizması ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, doğal kaynak kirası ile ekonomik büyüme arasında bir geri beslemeli nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Özellikle sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerine ulaşmak için daha temiz ve çevre dostu enerji kaynaklarına yönelik etkili politika sonuçları çizilebilir. Bu tezin üçüncü kısmı, Pakistan için elektrik kaynaklı büyüme hipotezi üzerine yeni bir bakış açısı sunmaktadır. Tez, Pakistan'da elektrik tüketimi, reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve karbondioksit emisyonları arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Bu amaçla, çalışmamız, yapısal kırılmayı dikkate alan ekonometrik analizler için 1971-2014 yılları arasındaki yıllık verilere dayanmaktadır. Maki eşbütünleşme testine göre, elektrik tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve karbondioksit emisyonları arasında uzun dönemli ilişki vardır. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testinden elde edilen ampirik bulgular: (i) Ekonomik büyümeden elektrik tüketimine tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Bu nedenle, bu çalışma muhafazakâr hipotezini doğrular, yani Pakistan'da muhafazakâr enerji stratejileri ekonomik ilerlemeye zarar veremez. (ii) elektrik tüketiminden karbondioksit emisyonlarına da tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Bu sonuca göre, endüstriyel faaliyetler, karbon salınımında bir artışa neden olur ve bunun karşılığında çevresel bozulmaya neden olduğu bulunmuştur. Son olarak, bu tezin son bölümünde, Zimbabwe için elektrik tüketimi, karbondioksit emisyonları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi ele alınmıştır. Bu amaçla çalışmada öncelikle, incelenen değişkenlerin durağanlık özelliklerini incelemek için tek bir yapısal kırılmayı dikkate alan Zivot-Andrews (1992) birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Daha sonra, birden fazla yapısal kırılmayı hesaba katan Maki (2012) eşbütünleşme testi incelenen değişkenler arasındaki denge ilişkisine uygulanırken, dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi (DOLS) uzun dönem regresyonu tahmin prosedürleri olarak uzun dönem katsayıları için kullanılır. Nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünü belirleyebilmek için, Toda-Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testi, 1971-2014 arasında değişen yıllık frekans verileri için kullanılmıştır. Maki eşbütünleşme testinden elde edilen ampirik sonuçlara göre, incelenen dönemde elektrik tüketimi, karbondioksit emisyonları ve kişi başına düşen reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Uzun dönem regresyon sonuçları ise reel gelir ile elektrik tüketimi arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Böylece, elektrik kaynaklı büyüme hipotezini desteklemektedir. Bu sonuç nedensellik testi ile de desteklenmektedir, çünkü elektrik tüketiminden reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi gözlemlenmiştir. Bu nedenle, devlet yöneticileri ve politika yapıcılar için Zimbabwe ekonomisinin elektriğe bağlı olduğu öne sürülmektedir. Ancak, çevresel kalite için bir dezavantaj var. Elektrik tüketimindeki artış, karbondioksit emisyonunu artırdıkça. Zimbabwe enerji portföyünün daha temiz ve çevre dostu enerji kaynaklarına çeşitlendirilmesi ihtiyacı, daha temiz enerji tüketimi konusunda dünyaya duyduğu dünya bilinci göz önünde bulundurulması önerilir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Enerji tasarrufu hipotezi, enerji tüketimi, kombine eşbütünleşme, Dinamik nedensellik, Yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, Yenilenemeyen enerji tüketimi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Maki Eşbütünleşme, Güney Afrika ve Pakistan. ; Doctor of Philosophy in Economics. Thesis (Ph.D.)--Eastern Mediterranean University, Faculty of Business and Economics, Dept. of Economics, 2019. Co-Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Leila Dagher, Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Mehmet Balcılar.

The welfare impact of a disaster does not depend only on the physical characteristics of the event or its direct impacts in terms of lost lives and assets. Depending on the ability of the economy to cope, recover, and reconstruct, the reconstruction will be more or less difficult, and the welfare effects smaller or larger. This ability, which can be referred to as the macroeconomic resilience of the economy to natural disasters, is an important parameter to estimate the overall vulnerability of a population. Here, resilience is decomposed into two components: instantaneous resilience, which is the ability to limit the magnitude of the immediate loss of income for a given amount of capital losses, and dynamic resilience, which is the ability to reconstruct and recover quickly. The paper proposes a rule of thumb to estimate macroeconomic resilience, based on the interest rate (a higher interest rate decreases resilience and increases welfare losses), the reconstruction duration (a longer reconstruction duration increases welfare losses), and a "ripple-effect" factor that increases or decreases immediate losses (negative if enough idle resources are available to cope; positive if cross-sector and supply-chain issues impair the production of non-affected capital). An optimal risk management strategy is very likely to include measures to reduce direct impacts (disaster risk reduction actions) and measures to reduce indirect impacts (resilience building actions).

In spite of the United States' recovery, most Caribbean nations are still struggling in the aftermath of the 2007–08 global financial crisis. This paper examines this slow growth recovery through the analysis of how the Caribbean's growth relates to that of key drivers of the global economy. The paper explores whether the region's links with some important global partners could be behind the sluggish post-crisis recovery. The paper analyzes the economic growth of Caribbean countries as a function of the growth in key global partners and of country-specific characteristics. The findings attribute an important role to the European Union and the United States in the outcomes for the region, especially in services-oriented economies. The findings show that when these nations grow, or when they are in an expansionary cycle, the Caribbean's growth responds positively but less than proportionally. Consequently, the slow recovery in the Caribbean region is attributed to the persistent sluggishness in the European Union and the fact that the U.S. recovery is still nascent and not quite robust.

Employing a unique dataset that covers households from six West African capitals, this paper provides new evidence on the demand for informal sector products and services. Authors first investigate whether demand linkages exist between formal and informal products and distribution channels. In a second step, authors estimate demand elasticity's based on Engel curves. Authors find strong demand-side linkages between the formal and informal sector, with the exception that informal goods are hardly bought through formal distribution channels. The estimated demand elasticity's tend to show that rising incomes are associated with a lower propensity to consume informal sector goods and to use informal distribution channels.

This paper analyses the impact of a microfinance institution (MFI) serving small informal enterprises in Antananarivo (Madagascar). The methodology consists of comparing over time the situation of a representative sample of clients' enterprises with a control group, constructed in an almost experimental way through a standard propensity-score matching technique. Overall, the results indicate a positive impact of the project. Taken as a snapshot, the evaluations successively conducted in 2001 and 2004 indicate that the clients' enterprises recorded better average performance than enterprises without funding. With a dynamic perspective however, the results are more nuanced. If the positive effect of the project is clear during growth phases, its effect during economic recessions appears less certain.

Social reproduction is the highest for self-employed as shown by an extensive literature from developed and developing countries. Very few studies however document the reason for this high intergenerational correlation of the self-employed status. The purpose of this paper is to test if the second-generation of self-employed has an advantage related to the first-generation in the African context. It aims at highlighting the debate on firms heterogeneity in the informal sector, by identifying factors of informal business success. In addition, this paper seeks to contribute to understand the intergenerational transmission of inequalities. Using 1-2-3 surveys collected in the commercial capitals of seven West African countries in 2001-2002, this paper shows that the second-generation of informal self-employed does not have better outcomes than the first one, except when they choose a familial tradition in the same sector of activity. Thus, in the African context, having a self-employed father does not provide any advantage in terms of profit or sales and is not sufficient for the transmission of valuable skills. On the other hand, informal entrepreneurs who have chosen a specific enterprise based on familial tradition have a competitive advantage. Their competitive advantage is partly explained by the transmission of enterprise-specific human capital, acquired through experiences in the same type of activity and by the transmission of social capital that guarantees a better clientele and a reputation.

Recent academic research has questioned the role of economic policy as a determinant of long term growth rates. While there seems to be a correlation between several policy variables and growth rates, this correlation disappears when controlling for other factors. As an example, the significance of key economic policy variables such as inflation or government size disappears if we account for the quality of institutions. This paper looks at recent empirical research that questions the conclusion that macroeconomic policy does not matter for growth. By looking at the volatility of economic policy (whether it is fiscal policy or exchange rates), the authors find that policy is still a relevant and robust explanatory variable of cross country differences in economic growth. These results have strong policy implications. Improvements in the conduct of macroeconomic policy can have beneficial growth effects even if institutional reforms are not taking place. These results do not deny the importance of institutional reforms. By setting the right institutions one can ensure the proper conduct of macroeconomic policy without having to rely on the 'quality' of the decision maker.

Recent academic research has questioned the role of economic policy as a determinant of long term growth rates. While there seems to be a correlation between several policy variables and growth rates, this correlation disappears when controlling for other factors. As an example, the significance of key economic policy variables such as inflation or government size disappears if we account for the quality of institutions. This paper looks at recent empirical research that questions the conclusion that macroeconomic policy does not matter for growth. By looking at the volatility of economic policy (whether it is fiscal policy or exchange rates), the authors find that policy is still a relevant and robust explanatory variable of cross country differences in economic growth. These results have strong policy implications. Improvements in the conduct of macroeconomic policy can have beneficial growth effects even if institutional reforms are not taking place. These results do not deny the importance of institutional reforms. By setting the right institutions one can ensure the proper conduct of macroeconomic policy without having to rely on the 'quality' of the decision maker.