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This paper investigates factors that determine the average income growth and net migration using Swedish data. The main issue is to test the hypothesis that the growth rate in one municipality is affected by the growth rates in its neighboring municipalities. Our results support this hypothesis: we found a positive correlation between the growth rates in neighboring municipalities. In addition, we found a negative correlation between the initial level of average income and the subsequent average income growth, which can be interpreted in terms of conditional convergence. We also found that local government policy variables such as local public investments, expenditures, and income tax rates were important determinants of net migration and average income growth. ; Inom EU-finansierade projektet Urban Design.Revised and extended in CERUM Working Paper no 2003:67.Published in Regional Studies ISSN 0034-3404 2006 vol 40 no 3 pp 303-316. Taylor & Francis. doi:10.1080/00343400600631566Changesmay have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication.

The great majority of the theoretical analysis about electoral cycles has considered the national space as the territory of interest for the study of the economic consequences of an electoralist behaviour by the central government. This fact, in conjunction to the nature of the data most commonly available, has lead many authors to empirical studies which, by the use of more or less sophisticated econometric echniques, intend to verify the empirical evidence of electoral cycles whether in their political versions or in their partisan versions. Given that the election results for the main parties, at least for Portugal, clearly reflect some spatial localization we find rather intriguing to verify that so very few of those empirical studies use spatial econometrics techniques. This being said, the main objective of the paper is to analyse the results corresponding to the last legislative election that took place in Portugal, from the partisan viewpoint, by the use of well-known techniques of spatial econometrics. The confrontation of the results with the ones obtained ignoring the spatial localization of the data will lead us to the nature and extent of the improvement on the results obtained by spatial econometrics techniques in what concerns the detection of empirical evidence supporting the existence of a link between voters' ideology and the election results obtained by the two main parties in Portugal.

The great majority of the theoretical analysis about electoral cycles has considered the national space as the territory of interest for the study of the economic consequences of an electoralist behaviour by the central government. This fact, in conjunction to the nature of the data most commonly available, has lead many authors to empirical studies which, by the use of more or less sophisticated econometric techniques, intend to verify the empirical evidence of electoral cycles whether in their political versions or in their partisan versions. Given that the election results for the main parties, at least for Portugal, clearly reflect some spatial localization we find rather intriguing to verify that so very few of those empirical studies use spatial econometrics techniques. This being said, the main objective of the paper is to analyse the results corresponding to the last legislative election that took place in Portugal, from the partisan viewpoint, by the use of well-known techniques of spatial econometrics. The confrontation of the results with the ones obtained ignoring the spatial localization of the data will lead us to the nature and extent of the improvement on the results obtained by spatial econometrics techniques in what concerns the detection of empirical evidence supporting the existence of a link between voters' ideology and the election results obtained by the two main parties in Portugal.

The great majority of the theoretical analysis about political business cycles (PBCs) has considered the national space as the territory of interest for the study of the economic consequences of an electoralist behaviour by the central government. This fact, in conjunction to the nature of the data most commonly available, has lead many authors to empirical studies which, by the use of more or less sophisticated econometric techniques, intend to verify the empirical evidence of PBCs. Given that the election results for the main parties, at least for Portugal, clearly reflect some spatial localization we find rather intriguing to verify that so very few of those empirical studies use spatial econometrics techniques. A causal observation on the data concerning the (Portuguese) election results over space shows that the results obtained by the incumbent, at a regional level, should not be considered completely independent of the party ruling the distinct municipalities distributed over the national territory. This being said, the paper's main objective is the analysis of the results corresponding to the last legislative election that took place in Portugal, from the PBCs viewpoint, by the use of well-known techniques of spatial econometrics. The confrontation of the results with the ones obtained ignoring the spatial localization of the data will lead us to the nature and extent of the improvement on the results obtained by spatial econometrics techniques in what concerns the detection of empirical evidence supporting the existence of PBCs in Portugal.

Defence date: 6 June 2003 ; Examining Board: Søren Johansen, Supervisor, External EUI and Copenhagen ; Anindya Banerjee, EUI ; Marius Ooms, Free University Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics ; Andrew Harvey, University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics and Politics ; First made available online on 23 April 2018 ; -- Stock market integration and the cointegrated VAR -- Does the PPP hold within the US? -- PPP, cointegration, and non-stationary inflation -- I(2)-to-I(l) transformation and deterministic terms

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) Cambodia, in close collaboration with various government institutions, has been conducting poverty analysis and mapping refinement. The main objectives of the refinement have been (i) to refine core poor areas in Cambodia, (ii) to identify priority areas for social sector interventions such as those targeted to adult and child education, health and nutrition interventions, and (iii) to identify priority areas for assisting variable population groups such as those in flood and drought prone areas, forest and fishing concession areas.

Using both univariate and multivariate analyses, this paper attempts to determine whether a credit crunch occurred in the Turkish economy during the 1990s. It also addresses the question of whether this credit crunch was a supply-side- or a demand-side-originated phenomenon. Economic uncertainty is proxied by unanticipated inflation. The analyses are carried out by controlling for political uncertainty as well. The results indicate that economic uncertainty has a significantly negative impact on the supply of and the demand for loans. Also, there is evidence that a supply-side-originated credit crunch occurred in the Turkish economy.

The interplay between unemployment compensation and the duration of contracts is analysed in a matching framework. The unemployed after a permanent job are entitled to a long period of unemployment Insurance (UI). The unemployed after a temporary job are not eligible for UI. The former receive offers for permanent and temporary jobs while the latter find only temporary jobs. The variables of the model are estimated using the European Panel. Then some reforms of the unemployment compensation system and of the temporary contracts' legislation are simulated. More generous insurance or assistance benefits slightly raise the unemployment rate and the social welfare. Increasing the legal duration of temporary contracts or their transformation rate in permanent contracts strongly decreases the rate of unemployment and improves the welfare of all the individuals. L'interaction entre l'indemnisation du chômage et la durée des contrats est analysée dans le cadre d'un modèle d'appariement. Les chômeurs après un emploi en CDI ont droit à une longue période d'indemnisation par l'assurance. Les chômeurs après un emploi temporaire sont peu ou pas indemnisés. Or les premiers reçoivent des offres d'emploi en CDI et CDD, alors que les seconds ne trouvent que des CDD. Les variables du modèle sont estimées à partir du Panel européen, puis des réformes de l'indemnisation du chômage et de la législation sur les contrats temporaires sont simulées. Des allocations chômage (d'assurance ou d'assistance) plus généreuses accroissent faiblement le taux de chômage et le bien-être social. Allonger la durée légale des CDD ou accroître leur taux de transformation en CDI réduit fortement le taux de chômage et améliore le bienêtre de tous.

In this paper, we test the hypotheses that recreational and cultural services provided at the local level of government are associated with bene…t spillovers between Swedish municipalities. We also test the hypothesis that municipalities with similar expenditure levels are more clustered than would be expected from merely a coincidence. A representative voter model is derived and the demand for recreational and cultural services is estimated using spatial SUR techniques. The results suggest that these expenditures are associated with bene…t spillovers and that municipalities with similar expenditure levels are clustered to a greater extent than would be expected from just a coincidence. ; Med stöd från Svenska komunförbundet. Published in Regional studies(ISSN 0034-3404)Vol 40 No 6 pp 631-644. Taylor & Francis. DOI:10.1080/00343400600868788 Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication.

The deregulation experience in airline, banking, and telecommunication suggests that the heterogeneity in consumers' preferences has important policy significance. However, the varied nature in motorists' preferences has been hardly recognized in urban passenger transportation sector. In this public sector, the public authority generally offers a uniform class of services to all potential users. This dissertation employs the new advances in econometrics on survey data sets from road pricing experiment in Los Angeles area to study the diversity in motorists' preferences for travel time and travel time reliability. The empirical findings are used to explore the efficiency and distributional effects of road pricing that accounts for users' heterogeneity. This dissertation found substantial heterogeneity in motorists' preferences for both travel time and travel time reliability. Furthermore, based on a simulation model, this dissertation found that road pricing policies catering to varying preferences can substantially increase efficiency while maintaining the same political feasibility as the current experiments. This dissertation also explores how to apply the recent developments in Bayesian econometrics to estimate the multinomial probit models combining different sources of data, which can be used to estimate the diversity in peoples' preferences with more flexibility in model specification.

We present a model for measuring spillovers resulting from local expenditure policies. We identify and test for three different types of budget spillovers: (i) benefit spillovers from the production of local public goods, (ii) externalities in crowding, caused by non-resident users of public facilities, and (iii) externalities from expenditure competition effects. In order to account for these types of spillovers, we specify a demand of public goods with interactions among local governments. The model is tested for different expenditure categories with a cross-section of data from municipalities of the metropolitan area of Barcelona. We find positive benefit spillovers in spending in Cultural and Sports facilities, and in Parks and Streets maintenance. Externalities in crowding appear in spending on Police, Cultural and Sports facilities, Parks and Streets maintenance, and Street cleaning, Water delivery and Sanitation. Spending on Social services seems to be affected by competition externalities, while there is no evidence of spillovers in the expenditure on General Administration.

We examine interaction between trade in goods and market power in domestic trade and distribution, developing a model that highlights this interaction. Theory points to an expected linkage between service sector competition and goods trade, one supported by econometrics involving import patterns of 21 OECD countries vis-à-vis 86 trading partners. This points to significant linkages between effective market access conditions for goods and the structure of the service sector. Because of the implied interaction, ignoring the structure of the domestic service sector may lead to a substantial underestimation of the direct impact of tariffs on trade flows.

Although the government annually produces about 70 new coins for every man, woman, and child, the economy's need for coins can vary from year to year. So how do the U.S. Mint, which makes the coins, and the Federal Reserve, which distributes them, decide how many coins the economy needs? Dean Croushore highlights some facts about coins and describes how demand for change is forecast.

The paper analyses the effects of international fragmentation in terms of intermediate goods trade on the dynamics of skill-specific real wage bills in manufacturing of three Central and East European countries (Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic). Both intermediate goods exports and imports of the CEECs exhibit a positive impact on the unskilled workers' wage bill. Since 1993, intermediate goods trade with the European Union alone has accounted for a reduction of about 58 per cent of the predicted annual change in the skilled-to-unskilled wage bill ratio in Hungary's manufacturing. The corresponding contribution was 31 per cent in the Czech Republic and 30 per cent in Poland.

This study extends the analysis of the economic benefits of naval crisis response enabled by forward presence undertaken by the Naval Postgraduate School for the 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR97). That study developed an operational methodology for quantifying these benefits. Drawing on that methodology, significant economic benefits were found associated with naval crisis response in the Arabian Gulf. The current study expands the QDR97 effort in several important directions. First, event analysis is introduced to link naval crisis response with price movements in key commodity, exchange, and share markets. Second, several new cases, one not directly involving oil, are developed to assess the generality of our findings. The findings of the first study are confirmed with naval forward presence/crisis response shown to produce extensive economic benefits for the US economy in each of the cases examined. Taken together, the two studies suggest that the economic benefits associated with naval forward presence/crisis response occur in a wide variety of crisis situations and geographical locations. More importantly, increased globalization together with the revival of tight oil markets will, for the foreseeable future, only reinforce the economic contributions made by forwardly deployed forces. ; Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.