International audience ; EU cohesion policy celebrated its twenty years of existence in 2009. The establishment of this policy stems for the observation that market forces may not be sufficient to significantly reduce regional inequalities. The EU therefore built this financial solidarity tool between member states with the aim of improving the competitiveness of disadvantaged regions and correcting regional imbalances. Yet, literature (particularly in spatial econometrics) on the question of the effectiveness of European funds is not unanimous. Hence, we suggest to analyse the cohesion policy and its role in regional growth through a method developed in spatial analysis, namely the GWR (Geographically Weighted Regression). The results show that the effects of the cohesion policy are differentiated according to EU regions. Spatial variations of the influence of European funds on the economic growth of regions ask for inflections in the Cohesion policy, especially in favor of a more territorialized policy. ; La politique de cohésion de l'UE a fêté ses vingt années d'existence en 2009. La mise sur pied de cette politique part du constat que les forces du marché ne sont pas nécessairement suffisantes pour réduire significativement les inégalités territoriales. L'UE a alors construit cet outil de solidarité financière entre États membres avec l'objectif d'améliorer la compétitivité des régions défavorisées et de corriger les déséquilibres régionaux. Pourtant, la littérature (notamment en économétrie spatiale) sur la question de l'efficacité des fonds européens n'est pas unanime. Aussi, nous proposons d'analyser la politique de cohésion et son rôle dans la croissance régionale au travers d'une méthode développée en analyse spatiale, à savoir la GWR (régression géographiquement pondérée). Les résultats montrent que les effets de la politique de cohésion sont différenciés en fonction des régions de l'UE. Les variations spatiales de l'influence des fonds européens sur la croissance économique des régions appellent des inflexions dans la politique de cohésion, en particulier en faveur d'une politique davantage territorialisée.
There is no controversy on the definition of public budget constraint. However, there is much debate on the speed of fiscal adjustment through which governments decide to satisfy their budget constraint : this is the topic of this PhD thesis. The main assumption is that the speed of adjustment is critical in the comprehensive assessment of the fiscal policy. More specifically, I answer to the following three questions: (i) historically, how fast was the resorption of governments' fiscal imbalances? (ii) What are the effects of different fiscal stimulus given the speed and the composition of the adjustment? (iii) How the length of an accommodative monetary policy affects the answers of the above questions? The first chapter shows that the weaknesses of econometric tests of sustainability can be overcome. I characterize the degree of persistence in fiscal imbalances by using fractional econometrics. This methodology allows to classify countries according to the reaction functions of their fiscal authorities. The chapter two assesses, through a general equilibrium model, the effects of adjustments after an expansive fiscal policy. I show that, whatever the preferred instrument for fiscal stimulus, an acceleration in the speed of adjustment has a negative effect on production in the medium term. Given that the nominal interest rate reached its lower bound, the chapter three assesses, in this context, a policy mix based on the timing of adjustments after the fiscal stimulus. An unstable regime of excessive consolidation occurs when the fiscal adjustment is strong regardless of the behavior of the central bank towards inflation. ; Si la définition de la contrainte budgétaire publique ne semble pas l'objet de controverse, ce qui constitue l'objet de recherche de cette thèse est la vitesse à laquelle les États décident de respecter cette contrainte. L'hypothèse est que la vitesse d'ajustement est déterminante dans l'évaluation globale de la politique budgétaire comme instrument contracyclique. Plus précisément, on ...
School enrolment zoning is the object of a deep debate in France with in the background the virtues of school competition. Towards its objective of social co-education, its assessment can seem quite disappointing. The map of school catchment areas is indeed a relatively ineffective instrument in the urban spaces marked by a strong spatial segregation, which it even tends to increase, Besides, its functioning is strongly unegalitarian (with by-pass strategies implemented by wealthier and/or insiders & screening devices of schools). In this context, the system ends exactly in what against what it tries to fight, a strong polarization of schools, strong disparities & poor performances in internationals comparisons. Its abolition announced for 2010 & the related stake in competition can appear as a means to unbolt the system & to increase average quality. Applied econometrics realized from foreign experiments show however that efficiency gains to be waited are at best modest On the other hand, competition rather tends to increase inequalities. We develop a model where pupils differ with respect to their parental income & their ability, & where achievements depend on own ability & on peers' abilities. Each school chooses an admission policy to maximize a quality index, We show that abolition of school enrolment zoning will imply a stronger school segregation even more based on academic results. A computational example also demonstrates that this stronger scholastic segregation will probably come with a more pronounced social segregation. All in all, the debate can then seem relatively orthogonal to the challenges which the school has to raise. The crucial questions for the future of the school indeed concern more social mixity, redistribution of the means in the direction of the pupils in academic failure, or still the improvement of the educational spending efficiency. Adapted from the source document.
This thesis falls within one period largely dominated by the idea according to which the developing countries are highly corrupt. Many studies show that corruption constitutes an impediment to their development. In the same vein, other studies focus on the determinants of corruption. However, most of these studies are undermined by the weaknesses of the indicators and the lack of using appropriate methodologies to take them into account. In addition, rare are the studies which test empirically the persistence of corruption. Lastly, as far as the consequences of corruption are concerned, only few studies examine rigorously the benefits of corruption in an environment characterized by multiple imperfections of the market. This thesis thus proposes to mitigate these problems by using an approach combining both theoretical modeling and econometric analysis. The first part of this thesis is devoted to the analysis of perception, determinants and persistence of corruption. It is assumed that the risk of biais related to the overvaluation of the extent of corruption by the international experts can be reduced by taking into account of the opinions of the local populations. We show, using surveys data in African countries and the PROBIT model, that the individual, social and political characteristics significantly affect the perception, the incidence and the tolerance of corruption. At a macroeconomic level, the instrumental variables (VI) analysis of the interactions between the public intervention and corruption show that a better regulation of the economic activities, a better bureaucratic quality and effective public policies contribute to reduce corruption. The bureaucratic and institutional variables do not affect the corruption in the same way in the different groups of developing countries. In addition, beyond the traditional determinants of corruption, a study of its persistence relies on two complementary tools: spatial econometrics and the seemingly unrelated regressions (SURE) and the three stage least ...
National audience ; The aim of this paper is to test the hypothesis that tax competition intensity is stronger in urban area than in rural area. We use the theoretical foundations of tax competition literature where horizontal strategic interactions are due to tax base mobility between local jurisdictions belonging to the same level of government. When tax base is mobile, an action chosen by a jurisdiction affects the budget constraint of another jurisdiction, leading to strategic interactions in local fiscal choices. As a consequence, tax rates in one jurisdiction depend on tax rates in the neighbouring jurisdictions. We then build a spatial model of local tax choices which takes into account the fiscal decisions made by concurrent jurisdictions as well as the local socio-economic characteristics such as tax base and population density in the explanatory variables. More precisely, we test the existence of horizontal fiscal interactions inside some different groups of jurisdictions by estimating the slope of each reaction function. We measure the sign and the intensity of the spatial lag parameter using spatial econometrics. We then rely these estimates to the features of each group of jurisdictions and more particularly to its classification in urban areas and in rural areas. We observe that jurisdictions belonging to urban areas tend to mimic each other whereas those who belong to rural areas does not take into account the neighbouring tax choices when they set their local business tax. Rural jurisdictions set their local business tax only by looking at their own socio-economic features. ; L'objet de cet article est de tester l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'intensité de la concurrence fiscale est plus forte en milieu urbain qu'en milieu rural. Dans ce but, nous construisons un modèle spatial de choix fiscal communal qui tient compte des choix fiscaux des communes concurrentes en matière de taxe professionnelle. Plus particulièrement, nous testons l'hypothèse de l'existence d'interactions fiscales au sein de ...
Série Histoire économique quantitative, AF ; National audience ; During the nineteenth century, newspapers publish, day after day, the quotation of the government bond, then in the second half of the century, some stocks ; at each year end, one takes the habit to indicate to the investor the highest quotation and the lowest for each month of the last year. These observations have the great advantage to be easily accessible but present nevertheless some serious disadvantages. Having these series of the highest and the lowest quotation, with doubtful precision, as well as the exact observations, we have questionned the usefulness of a careful data counting. It appeared that this gigantic work, in spite of its rigor, brought us relatively minor corrections and that the conclusions rejoined those previously established. That would lead us to conclude that with a light procedure, one could, without real loss in precision, avoid a particularly heavy work of counting. The demonstration, of empirical order, is undertaken in two steps. The first one makes use of classical econometrics: simple regression, Granger-causality and analysis of the seasonality. The second step uses different techniques, the cointegration and the error correction model. ; Au XIX e siècle, les journaux publient, jour après jour, le cours des rentes, puis dans la seconde moitié du siècle, de certaines actions ; à la fin de chaque année, on prend l'habitude d'indiquer à l'épargnant le cours le plus haut et le cours le plus bas pour chaque mois de l'année écoulée. Ces observations ont le grand avantage d'être assez facilement accessibles mais présentent toutefois quelques inconvénients sérieux. Disposant de ces séries de cours le plus haut et le plus bas, de précision assez douteuse, ainsi que des observations exactes, nous nous sommes interrogés sur l'utilité d'un dépouillement soigneux des données. Il nous est apparu que ce travail gigantesque n'apportait, en dépit de sa rigueur, que des corrections relativement mineures et que les conclusions ...
Série Histoire économique quantitative, AF ; National audience ; During the nineteenth century, newspapers publish, day after day, the quotation of the government bond, then in the second half of the century, some stocks ; at each year end, one takes the habit to indicate to the investor the highest quotation and the lowest for each month of the last year. These observations have the great advantage to be easily accessible but present nevertheless some serious disadvantages. Having these series of the highest and the lowest quotation, with doubtful precision, as well as the exact observations, we have questionned the usefulness of a careful data counting. It appeared that this gigantic work, in spite of its rigor, brought us relatively minor corrections and that the conclusions rejoined those previously established. That would lead us to conclude that with a light procedure, one could, without real loss in precision, avoid a particularly heavy work of counting. The demonstration, of empirical order, is undertaken in two steps. The first one makes use of classical econometrics: simple regression, Granger-causality and analysis of the seasonality. The second step uses different techniques, the cointegration and the error correction model. ; Au XIX e siècle, les journaux publient, jour après jour, le cours des rentes, puis dans la seconde moitié du siècle, de certaines actions ; à la fin de chaque année, on prend l'habitude d'indiquer à l'épargnant le cours le plus haut et le cours le plus bas pour chaque mois de l'année écoulée. Ces observations ont le grand avantage d'être assez facilement accessibles mais présentent toutefois quelques inconvénients sérieux. Disposant de ces séries de cours le plus haut et le plus bas, de précision assez douteuse, ainsi que des observations exactes, nous nous sommes interrogés sur l'utilité d'un dépouillement soigneux des données. Il nous est apparu que ce travail gigantesque n'apportait, en dépit de sa rigueur, que des corrections relativement mineures et que les conclusions ...
The European regional policy tries to improve the level of the economic and social cohesion within Europe. However, the structural funds assigned to this policy modify economic as well as spatial structure of the regions. In addition, the reflexions engaged, in particular through the SDEC, aim at promoting a voluntarist policy of polycentric adjustment of European space. Thus we are led to consider both structuration and regional integration dynamics of this space. The spatial analysis is mobilized to account for the impact of the economic integration process as well as the effect of regional policy on the european spatial structuration. An inventive use of the most recent tools of spatial econometrics makes possible to appreciate and to quantify the concerned processes. More particulary, we seek to improve the modelization of the interactions between areas by building up gravitational spatial weights matrix which integrate relevant elements put forward by spatial theory. ; La politique régionale européenne est un instrument au service du renforcement de la cohésion économique et sociale. Cependant, les fonds structurels affectés à cette politique modifient la structure des économies régionales et, par là, celle de leur territoire. Par ailleurs, des réflexions engagées, notamment à travers le SDEC, visent à promouvoir une politique volontariste d'aménagement polycentrique de l'espace européen. Il convient donc de s'interroger sur les dynamiques de structuration et d'intégration régionale de cet espace. L'analyse spatiale est mobilisée pour rendre compte de l'impact du processus d'intégration économique ainsi que de la politique régionale sur sa structuration. Une utilisation originale des outils récents de l'économétrie spatiale permet d'apprécier et de quantifier les processus en jeu. Une attention particulière est portée à l'amélioration de la modélisation des interactions entre régions, obtenue par la construction de matrices de poids gravitaires intégrant des éléments jugés à la source des interactions ...
Série Histoire économique quantitative, AF ; National audience ; During the nineteenth century, newspapers publish, day after day, the quotation of the government bond, then in the second half of the century, some stocks ; at each year end, one takes the habit to indicate to the investor the highest quotation and the lowest for each month of the last year. These observations have the great advantage to be easily accessible but present nevertheless some serious disadvantages. Having these series of the highest and the lowest quotation, with doubtful precision, as well as the exact observations, we have questionned the usefulness of a careful data counting. It appeared that this gigantic work, in spite of its rigor, brought us relatively minor corrections and that the conclusions rejoined those previously established. That would lead us to conclude that with a light procedure, one could, without real loss in precision, avoid a particularly heavy work of counting. The demonstration, of empirical order, is undertaken in two steps. The first one makes use of classical econometrics: simple regression, Granger-causality and analysis of the seasonality. The second step uses different techniques, the cointegration and the error correction model. ; Au XIX e siècle, les journaux publient, jour après jour, le cours des rentes, puis dans la seconde moitié du siècle, de certaines actions ; à la fin de chaque année, on prend l'habitude d'indiquer à l'épargnant le cours le plus haut et le cours le plus bas pour chaque mois de l'année écoulée. Ces observations ont le grand avantage d'être assez facilement accessibles mais présentent toutefois quelques inconvénients sérieux. Disposant de ces séries de cours le plus haut et le plus bas, de précision assez douteuse, ainsi que des observations exactes, nous nous sommes interrogés sur l'utilité d'un dépouillement soigneux des données. Il nous est apparu que ce travail gigantesque n'apportait, en dépit de sa rigueur, que des corrections relativement mineures et que les conclusions ...
Are financial incentives to get a job over-estimated? Six econometrics models are estimated, that combine with various levels of substitutability three possible explanatory factors for unemployment: disincentives to find a job due to high inactivity benefits and low wages, minimum wage regulation, labor market shortcomings. The investigation of the participation behaviour relies on the survey "Revenus Fiscaux" (year 1998), whereas the impact of the minimum wage legislation is estimated thanks to the data in "Enquête Emploi" (years 1997 and 1998). The study conducted on one-adult households shows that the best fit is obtained by models in which a strict complementarity between minimum wage censorship and participation is assumed. There is a significant income effect and leisure is a normal good. An increase by 10% through transfers of the revenue of a female worker earning the minimum wage would induce an increase by roughly 10% of her probability to be employed. ; Il est procédé à l'estimation par maximum de vraisemblance de 6 modèles qui font intervenir d'une manière tantôt substituable, tantôt complémentaire trois facteurs de non-emploi : le plus ou moins grand désir de travailler lié aux incitations financières, une productivité insuffisante inférieure au coût du Smic et des dysfonctionnements du marché du travail. L'étude du comportement de participation est réalisée à l'aide d'un modèle de micro-simulation basé sur l'enquête Revenus Fiscaux 1998, tandis que l'estimation de la censure au SMIC utilise les données de l'enquête Emploi 1997. Il ressort des estimations effectuées sur les personnes isolées que les modèles qui s'ajustent le mieux aux données sont ceux qui supposent une complémentarité stricte entre le risque de censure et le risque de refus d'accepter un travail. L'effet revenu existe et le loisir est un bien normal. Une augmentation de 10% du revenu disponible du Smicard sous forme de transferts se traduirait par un gain de probabilité d'emploi de l'ordre de 10%.
Are financial incentives to get a job over-estimated? Six econometrics models are estimated, that combine with various levels of substitutability three possible explanatory factors for unemployment: disincentives to find a job due to high inactivity benefits and low wages, minimum wage regulation, labor market shortcomings. The investigation of the participation behaviour relies on the survey "Revenus Fiscaux" (year 1998), whereas the impact of the minimum wage legislation is estimated thanks to the data in "Enquête Emploi" (years 1997 and 1998). The study conducted on one-adult households shows that the best fit is obtained by models in which a strict complementarity between minimum wage censorship and participation is assumed. There is a significant income effect and leisure is a normal good. An increase by 10% through transfers of the revenue of a female worker earning the minimum wage would induce an increase by roughly 10% of her probability to be employed. ; Il est procédé à l'estimation par maximum de vraisemblance de 6 modèles qui font intervenir d'une manière tantôt substituable, tantôt complémentaire trois facteurs de non-emploi : le plus ou moins grand désir de travailler lié aux incitations financières, une productivité insuffisante inférieure au coût du Smic et des dysfonctionnements du marché du travail. L'étude du comportement de participation est réalisée à l'aide d'un modèle de micro-simulation basé sur l'enquête Revenus Fiscaux 1998, tandis que l'estimation de la censure au SMIC utilise les données de l'enquête Emploi 1997. Il ressort des estimations effectuées sur les personnes isolées que les modèles qui s'ajustent le mieux aux données sont ceux qui supposent une complémentarité stricte entre le risque de censure et le risque de refus d'accepter un travail. L'effet revenu existe et le loisir est un bien normal. Une augmentation de 10% du revenu disponible du Smicard sous forme de transferts se traduirait par un gain de probabilité d'emploi de l'ordre de 10%.
Are financial incentives to get a job over-estimated? Six econometrics models are estimated, that combine with various levels of substitutability three possible explanatory factors for unemployment: disincentives to find a job due to high inactivity benefits and low wages, minimum wage regulation, labor market shortcomings. The investigation of the participation behaviour relies on the survey "Revenus Fiscaux" (year 1998), whereas the impact of the minimum wage legislation is estimated thanks to the data in "Enquête Emploi" (years 1997 and 1998). The study conducted on one-adult households shows that the best fit is obtained by models in which a strict complementarity between minimum wage censorship and participation is assumed. There is a significant income effect and leisure is a normal good. An increase by 10% through transfers of the revenue of a female worker earning the minimum wage would induce an increase by roughly 10% of her probability to be employed. ; Il est procédé à l'estimation par maximum de vraisemblance de 6 modèles qui font intervenir d'une manière tantôt substituable, tantôt complémentaire trois facteurs de non-emploi : le plus ou moins grand désir de travailler lié aux incitations financières, une productivité insuffisante inférieure au coût du Smic et des dysfonctionnements du marché du travail. L'étude du comportement de participation est réalisée à l'aide d'un modèle de micro-simulation basé sur l'enquête Revenus Fiscaux 1998, tandis que l'estimation de la censure au SMIC utilise les données de l'enquête Emploi 1997. Il ressort des estimations effectuées sur les personnes isolées que les modèles qui s'ajustent le mieux aux données sont ceux qui supposent une complémentarité stricte entre le risque de censure et le risque de refus d'accepter un travail. L'effet revenu existe et le loisir est un bien normal. Une augmentation de 10% du revenu disponible du Smicard sous forme de transferts se traduirait par un gain de probabilité d'emploi de l'ordre de 10%.
Are financial incentives to get a job over-estimated? Six econometrics models are estimated, that combine with various levels of substitutability three possible explanatory factors for unemployment: disincentives to find a job due to high inactivity benefits and low wages, minimum wage regulation, labor market shortcomings. The investigation of the participation behaviour relies on the survey "Revenus Fiscaux" (year 1998), whereas the impact of the minimum wage legislation is estimated thanks to the data in "Enquête Emploi" (years 1997 and 1998). The study conducted on one-adult households shows that the best fit is obtained by models in which a strict complementarity between minimum wage censorship and participation is assumed. There is a significant income effect and leisure is a normal good. An increase by 10% through transfers of the revenue of a female worker earning the minimum wage would induce an increase by roughly 10% of her probability to be employed. ; Il est procédé à l'estimation par maximum de vraisemblance de 6 modèles qui font intervenir d'une manière tantôt substituable, tantôt complémentaire trois facteurs de non-emploi : le plus ou moins grand désir de travailler lié aux incitations financières, une productivité insuffisante inférieure au coût du Smic et des dysfonctionnements du marché du travail. L'étude du comportement de participation est réalisée à l'aide d'un modèle de micro-simulation basé sur l'enquête Revenus Fiscaux 1998, tandis que l'estimation de la censure au SMIC utilise les données de l'enquête Emploi 1997. Il ressort des estimations effectuées sur les personnes isolées que les modèles qui s'ajustent le mieux aux données sont ceux qui supposent une complémentarité stricte entre le risque de censure et le risque de refus d'accepter un travail. L'effet revenu existe et le loisir est un bien normal. Une augmentation de 10% du revenu disponible du Smicard sous forme de transferts se traduirait par un gain de probabilité d'emploi de l'ordre de 10%.
Comovement is ubiquitous in financial markets. The evolution of asset characteristics, such as price, volatility or liquidity, exhibits a high degree of correlation across assets---a phenomenon that in this thesis will generically be denoted with the term comovement. The origins of such comovement are legion. In their investment decisions, economic agents are not only influenced by their idiosyncrasies---a large part of investment motivations are shared over a population. Demographics or the political situation can generate constraints that are similar for a large number of people. A country's geography can greatly influence the sectors in which it is most productive, which implies that many people are sometimes subject to the same risk factors. Moreover, it is well known that mimesis is part of human psychology, and that people mimic their peers even when taking personal decisions. For these reasons, and many more, financial markets have a very systematic character, and studying the nature and intensity of such comovement is important from a risk management point of view. This thesis studies comovement in financial markets under three dimensions. First, I consider comovement in equity liquidity. The liquidity of an asset is the ease with which that asset can be bought or sold. Liquidity can be measured in various ways and the first chapter concludes that market movements of two different liquidity measures have the same origin. Second, I study the impact correlation comovement on the price of stocks. The correlations between stock returns and the market return evolve through time and are correlated themselves. The effect of this correlation comovement on asset prices is however ambiguous and there is not enough evidence to depict a clear image. Finally, I develop a model to investigate contagion dynamics in the secondary market for European sovereign bonds over the past two years. More particularly, I study whether changes in the bond price of one specific country have an impact the next day on the average bond ...
Socio-spatial segmentation causes a situation where urban areas are insulated from dynamic areas and in which populations having economic and social difficulties are concentred. The consequences of segmentation are even more detrimental as it lasts longer because of a process of self-reinforcement. Segmentation becomes segregation. The first part of this thesis presents the forms, causes and consequences of the sociospatial segmentation. Given the negative consequences of socio-spatial segregation (in terms of income, education, professional trajectory.), public intervention aiming at enhancing social mixing in urban space seems a priori justified. In the second part, I insist on the place of housing policy. Since 2000, French "SRU law" (for "Solidarité et Renouvellement Urbains" – urban solidarity and urban renewal) compels urban municipalities to offer at least 20 % of social housing. Municipalities that do comply with this quota are sanctioned by a levy on their revenue. The incentives and functionality of the SRU law have been the subject of a wide-ranging debate. Are the penalties insufficiently high? Do real estate prices, scarcity of land, the tax base of the city, the type of municipality (rural, urban.), the preferences of the inhabitants, the political affiliation of the mayor. influence the effort of the municipalities? The theoretical model we develop, using a principal-agent framework, aims at studying the incentives properties of this rule and introducing the political and economic constraints that affect the local public decision maker. The third part deals with the implementation of the law in Ile-de-France. After the examination of geographical distribution of social housing and the results of the implementation, three years after its promulgation, we try to identify the politico-economic determinants of the additional social housing supply in Ile-de-France. Thanks to econometric tools, we find real estate prices, type of municipality (rural, urban), initial proportion of social housing influence the effort of the mayors. Penalties are inoperative. Our results enable us to moderate the effectiveness of the SRU law in stimulating the social housing supply in particular municipalities. ; La segmentation sociospatiale génère une situation où des quartiers sont isolés des zones dynamiques et dans lesquels sont concentrées des populations rencontrant des difficultés socio-économiques. Les conséquences de la segmentation sont d'autant plus néfastes qu'elle perdure à cause d'une dynamique cumulative. La segmentation dégénère alors en ségrégation. La première partie de cette thèse présente les formes, les causes et les conséquences de la segmentation sociospatiale. A cause des conséquences négatives de la ségrégation sociospatiale (en termes de revenus, d'éducation et d'emplois), une intervention publique ayant pour objectif d'améliorer la mixité sociale à l'échelle urbaine semble a priori justifiée. Dans la deuxième partie, nous insistons sur le rôle de la politique du logement social. Depuis 2000, la loi Solidarité et Renouvellement Urbains oblige les communes urbanisées à détenir au moins 20 % de logements sociaux sous peine d'un prélèvement sur leurs recettes fiscales. Le caractère incitatif et opérationnel de la loi SRU fait l'objet de nombreux débats. Le prélèvement est-il assez élevé? Les prix de l'immobilier, la rareté du foncier, le potentiel fiscal, le type de commune (rural, urbain), les références des habitants, la couleur politique du maire.influencent-ils l'effort des municipalités? Le modèle principal-agent que nous développons vise à étudier les propriétés incitatives du dispositif et à expliciter les contraintes politico-économiques qui affectent la décision publique locale. La troisième partie s'intéresse à l'application de la loi en Ile-de-France. Après avoir proposé un état des lieux de la répartition géographique des logements sociaux et un bilan de l'application de la loi suite à la première période triennale, nous cherchons à identifier les déterminants politico-économiques de l'offre additionnelle de logements sociaux en Ile-de-France. Les résultats économétriques auxquels nous parvenons montrent notamment que les prix immobiliers, le caractère rural des communes et le taux initial de logement social influencent le niveau d'effort des maires. Le prélèvement n'est pas influent. Nos résultats nous conduisent à nuancer la capacité de la loi à inciter la production de logements sociaux dans des villes aux caractéristiques particulières.
