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AbstractThe value of an economic forecast in planning urban service facilities. Forecasting is not a guessing contest.

The purpose of observation is to discover laws. The word "law" I use in Hegel's sense of a generalization, a determination of categories, which enables experience to be classified and rationally interpreted. We can never arrive at a complete knowledge of laws in this sense. If we could, the future would be known to us with as much certainty as the past. Hegel said that forecasting is not the province of the philosopher, and some of his own attempts in that direction, such as the subjugation of Asia by Europe and a monarchy for the United States, do not appear fortunate. The difficulties, however, are two: that laws are not truly or completely known; and that experience is not assigned to the proper categories. These conceptions, however, point the way. It would seem that economics has as much need as any other branch of knowledge for seeking laws in this sense. Although its steps may be faltering, they will be in the right direction if truth is sought by observation conceived as a quest for the laws which experience obeys.I propose in this paper to present a short attempt along these lines, my data being taken from Canadian and United States economic statistics since the War. The following, therefore, is intended primarily as an illustration of method. It is hoped, however, that the conceptions which will emerge are also worth notice for their own sakes.