Abstract in English: Governance in Russian Regions: A Policy ComparisonHelge Blakkisrud reviews Governance in Russian Regions: A Policy Comparison, edited by Sabine Kropp, Aadne Aasland, Mikkel Berg-Nordlie, Jørn Holm-Hansen & Johannes Schumann. The book investigates the emergence and the workings of governance networks in a Russian context.
Abstract: Trauma and Collective Memories in Georgia's Foreign PolicyGeorgia's foreign policy since the mid-1990s would appear to be a regional anomaly. While Georgia's neighbors have either accommodated to Russia's geopolitical interests or sought to navigate between Russia and the West, Georgian governments have pursued a comparatively stable pro-Western foreign policy orientation. Thus, structural arguments like geographic proximity, or Russia's assertive foreign policy, cannot account for the variation in foreign-policy orientation among post-Soviet states. Moreover, although alternative explanations, like Georgia's European identity and commitment to democracy, or explanations related to qualities of the Mikheil Saakashvili government, are not without merits, they cannot fully account for the continuity in Georgia's pro-Western foreign policy over time. This article argues that the collective memory of the traumatic years 1989–1994 is a key factor for understanding Georgia's foreign policy continuity. The collective memory and trauma related to loss of territory, together with a weak state and Russia's negative involvement, have shaped the strategic thinking of Georgia's foreign policy elites. This trauma explains Georgia's shift to a pro-Western foreign policy in the mid-1990s and the continuity of this policy up until today. This argument is supported by the author's interviews with key Georgian decision-makers responsible for foreign policy decisions.
Abstract: Russia's Defence Policy and Military Presence in the Caucasus and Central AsiaThese two reports, Security in the Caucasus. Russian policy and military posture and Security in the Caucasus. Russian policy and military posture, analyse and discuss Russia's security policy and military posture after 2014 in two regions often described as part of Russia's 'near abroad', the Caucasus and Central Asia. The reports find that although both regions are considered as within Russia's 'sphere of influence', the Russian military structure and policy varies significantly. While geared towards crisis management of potential conflicts in Central Asia, the frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus have made Russia set up for regional war.
Abstract: Economic growth, production and divergence in the transition countries This article examines developments in income and living standards in the post-communist transition countries. All these countries had planned economies, but differed greatly in their economic and institutional starting points at the time of transition. The extent and speed of reforms has also varied. Production has increased considerably, but many of these transition countries have experienced severe business-cycle fluctuations. Although they have generally narrowed the income gap between them and the world's richest nations, there are clear signs of divergence, with some of the poorest transition countries making very slow progress here. This is especially the case with the countries of the former Soviet Union and, to a lesser extent, the Balkan countries, but not the 11 countries that have joined the EU. Thus, the economic gains of the post-communist transition have been very uneven across countries.
Abstract: Security Policy and Memory Politics: Establishing the Soviet Liberation Monument in Kirkenes, 1945–1952A few kilometers from the border with Russia, in the town of Kirkenes in the easternmost corner of Northern Norway, there stands a bronze statue of a Soviet soldier looking out over the borderland. The Soviet Liberation Monument, as the statue is called, was unveiled in 1952 by the Norwegian authorities, in gratitude for the Soviet liberation of the East Finnmark area in 1944. The statue has served as a meeting place for regular commemorative ceremonies involving the Norwegian and Soviet authorities, throughout the Cold War and up until the present. This article explores the interplay between security policy and memory politics at the onset of the Cold War by examining the seven-year long process of establishing this monument. As the Iron Curtain descended over Europe, the monument and the memories attached to it became important tools with which Norway developed a critical dialogue with its great-power neighbor. The article shows how the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs learned how to use the collective memories of the Soviet liberation to ensure Norway's security-policy goal of low tension in its relations with the USSR.
Abstract: An East-West divide in late-life wellbeing in Europe? A comparative study of 12 countries This study explores late-life loneliness and depression in European countries, noting the role of micro-level differences in socioeconomic status, health, and social variables. Findings from cross-sectional, nationally representative data from 12 countries and 36,000 individuals in the Generations and Gender Survey show a marked East–West divide among older but not among younger adults. Among older adults (aged 60–80) loneliness and depression are as much as three to four times more prevalent in Eastern European (20–40%) than in Northwest European countries (10–15%). These patterns reflect economic, social, and societal issues which in turn affect the conditions for active and healthy aging. There is considerable variation among Eastern European countries, correlating with macro-level economic development and welfare spending. Generous welfare states seem to offer a buffer against, or postpone, the risk of late-life depression and loneliness. Cultural factors may also play a role: because of high expectations as to strong family and community ties, Eastern Europeans may have a lower loneliness threshold than other Europeans.
Abstract: EU Actorness in the South Caucasus: Possibilities and LimitationsDespite significant institutional changes and refinements since its creation in 2004, the ENP (European Neighborhood Policy) remains a major tool available to the EU for providing incentives for reform and stability in non-member states through the diffusion of its norms and rules. Earlier studies, drawing on the Europeanization conceptual framework, have been mostly concerned about how and by which mechanisms compliance with EU rules takes place, rather than focusing on whether and to what extent it occurs. By contrast, this article assesses the actorness of the EU in three countries of the South Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan), viewing actorness as composed of three dimensions – capability, opportunity, and presence – enabling and constraining the aspirations of the EU to be an international actor in the South Caucasus.
The article analyses the results of a nationally representative survey on local democracy conducted in Ukraine in the autumn of 2017, offering insights into attitudes towards local authorities and ongoing decentralization reforms, as well as participation in local politics. The survey shows that people have very low trust in the authorities, but more trust in them than in national institutions. Respondents feel that they have little influence on local politics and that local authorities do not take their opinion into account. On the other hand, the majority report being active in various forms of local political activity. Further, there is considerable support of decentralization reforms; people have already noted certain local improvements since the decentralization reform was launched in 2015. Differences among the several geographical regions of Ukraine are small. Survey findings are explained through three analytical frameworks that emphasize the historical heritage, important economic and political conditions, and structural adjustment to European institutions.
Abstract: "Even if it didn't happen, it's true" – Houston, We Have a Problem!Houston, We Have a Problem! (director: Žiga Virc, 2016) is a mockumentary film from Slovenia that stirred up controversy in the former Yugoslavia. The film deals with the Yugoslav space program, which Josip Broz Tito sells to the United States under President Kennedy for $2.5 billion. However, it turns out that the Yugoslavs have nothing to sell: their space program is utterly useless. The payment is then converted into a loan, forcing Yugoslavia into an economic crisis. Tito dies, and with more or less direct involvement from the US side, Yugoslavia dies with him. The content of this film, and the debate surrounding it, show that popular culture dealing with the past has inherited traces of the ideologizations of the past. This article presents interpretations of public reactions to the film, but also analyzes what it seeks to convey regarding Yugoslav historiography, through this fable of Yugoslavia, its purported space program, and US involvement.
Abstract: Russia's operationalization of a sphere of interest in the South CaucasusA central foreign policy objective of Russia is to maintain an exclusive sphere of interest in its post-Soviet neighbourhood. This article analyses how Russia employs a combination of political and military instruments in operationalizing its perceived sphere of interest in the still conflict-ridden South Caucasus. Russia is the only external power in the region to have military bases there, and is the only one seemingly ready to undertake military action. At present, Russia appears satisfied with the status quo in the South Caucasus. The unresolved conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh are therefore unlikely to be resolved in the near future. Unresolved conflicts suit Russia's objectives. Russian military bases in Georgia and Armenia provide Moscow with both a key lever against Tbilisi and Yerevan and a structural advantage for potential Russian military operations in the region. Russia's military posture in the Caucasus is relevant to the potential for large-scale conflict in the Southern war theatre, including the wider Middle East, and not just local conflicts in the Caucasus.
Abstract: HIV and AIDS in Russia: Regime Dynamics and ResponseOver the last two decades, the number of persons living with HIV in Russia has increased dramatically. According to WHO criteria, Russia is now facing a generalized HIV epidemic. This article analyzes how regime dynamics have influenced Russia's capacity to build a domestic response to the epidemic. Putin's cultural conservative turn in 2012 may have negatively affected the regime's ability to curb the spread of HIV. Evidence collected for this study indicates that three developments in particular have contributed to this. The first is the introduction of legislation aimed at reducing foreign involvement in Russia, which has weakened civil society as the main provider of prevention programs and services to key populations, and has forced global agencies to leave the country. Secondly, the increasing use of value-based conservative rhetoric after 2012 has meant better access to state structures, policy crafting and governmental funding for actors opposed to conventional methods of preventing HIV. Lastly, Putin's post-2012 cultural conception of the state has served to entrench Russian neopatrimonialism. As neopatrimonialism creates conditions unfavorable to successful implementation of reforms, including those necessary to deal with the ongoing epidemic, its stabilization may have assisted inaction as regards HIV.
Abstract: 'The Politics of Uncertainty' in Practice: The 2020 Presidential Election that Changed BelarusUp until 2020 Aleksandr Lukashenka's authoritarian regime had ruled Belarus for 26 years without major challenges. Thus, the popular mobilization that took shape in connection with the August 2020 presidential election came as a surprise. It was not the first time that elections in Belarus were not fair – but it was the first time that large sectors of the population reacted openly. Six months later, Belarusians all over the country were still contesting the falsified results. What contributed to this mobilization and politicization of a previously largely apolitical society? Why does that development represent such a serious threat to the authoritarian system? This study sees the Belarusian presidential election and its aftermath as illustrating the 'politics of uncertainty' of electoral authoritarian regimes. Because of the intrinsic insecurity of authoritarian systems, all regular elections in that context entail risks, which in theory might lead to change. In Belarus, the emergence of latent threats to the regime's legitimacy in the form of social cleavages and an economic crisis, combined with the fundamental dynamics of the 'election game', amplified this instability. The election served as the starting point for a process of transformation that became the most serious threat ever faced by the Lukashenka regime.
Abstract: East is East and West is West? Comparing Party System Stability in Europe 2008–2019This article compares trends in party system stability in Central/ Eastern Europe (CEE) and Western Europe, to see if recent studies indicating that the two regions have become more similar hold when the results of outcomes of several post-financial-crisis elections are taken into consideration. Further, it enquires into the underlying causes of electoral volatility and whether they differ between the two regions. In all, 82 parliamentary elections in 25 EU countries 2008–2019 are analyzed as regards electoral volatility (Pedersen's Index) and support for new parties ('volatility type A'). The results show that, when the most likely confounding variables are controlled for, a significant difference between the two regions remains, but also that there is a converging trend on both indicators. Moreover, whereas electoral volatility in the West is driven by the level of corruption together with the effective number of parties, unemployment and economic growth as well as the number of effective parties are the main factors explaining the same phenomenon in CEE. There is also evidence that volatility in CEE, unlike in Western Europe, is also driven by a path-dependent logic, where previous volatility scores explain subsequent ones. That finding may have implications for the prospects of future party system stabilization.
