Suchergebnisse

This paper applies the replacement cost method for calculating the value of stochastic carbon sink in the EU climate policy for mitigating carbon dioxide emissions. Minimum costs with and without carbon sinks are then derived with a safety-first approach in a chance constrained framework for current system with an emission trading system and national allocation plans and a hypothetical system where all sectors trade. The theoretical results show that i) the value of carbon sink approaches zero for high enough risk discount, ii) relatively low abatement cost in the trading sector curbs supply of permits on the ETS market, and iii) large abatement costs in the trading sector create values from carbon sink for meeting national targets. The empirical application to the EU commitment of 20% reduction in carbon dioxides shows large variation in carbon sink value depending on risk discount and on institutional set up. Under no uncertainty, the value can correspond to approximately 0.45% of total GDP in EU under current policy system, but it is reduced to one third if all sectors are allowed to trade. The values are unevenly allocated among countries, but in different ways depending on EU policy; under current system countries make gains from reduced costs of meeting national targets, under a sector wide trading scheme buyers of permits gain from reductions in permit price and sellers make associated losses.

The free market economy, to which East European countries are increasingly being exposed, implies that classical budgeting techniques in the form of the Faustmann approach present themselves as the tools of choice for forest investment analysis. One implication is that the choice of a proper discount rate (r) must be made as part of the basis for formulating a harvest policy. The paper discusses this choice in the light of practice as well as theory, and, using Lithuania as a case, examines the potential economic and political impact of softening the current restrictions on forest management. A review of the debate on discounting in forestry is provided. A statistical analysis of the relation between reported rs and internal rates of return (IRR) from numerous studies on forestry investments reveals a strong correlation between r and IRR. Possible explanations are provided. Analysis reveals that application of any positive r will significantly change forestry practice in Lithuania. Setting r = 3 per cent, slow growing species are to be replaced by fast growing species, and rotation periods should be substantially shortened. The standing volume of (over-) mature forests is about 160 million m3, as compared with the currently harvestable volume of about 40 million m3 according to the minimum allowable rotation age. The macroeconomic perspectives of cashing some of the mature forest for the small transition economy are discussed, taking into account the effects of externalities of forests. Consequently we suggest an alternative formulation of the normal forest. Finally, based on these considerations, a real r of 0-2 per cent is suggested for State forestry in Lithuania. A post-tax r of 2 per cent is advocated for private forestry, with potential project specific deviations downward to 0 or upward to 4 per cent. It is stressed that discount rate is viewed as one of important decision parameters and due regard should be given to non-timber forest outputs, social and institutional settings and other factors.

Hungary is an extremely poor state in terms of energy resources; the energy policy of the country and the structure of energy resources used have been and are determined by the energy import dependence. After WWII, it could obtain its increased demand necessary to its extensive energyintensive industry established based on the Soviet model almost entirely from the Soviet Union. Hungary, just like other Central-European countries, tried to decrease its unilateral dependence on energy import linked to Russia through several measures in the past 25 years but these efforts achieved partial success only; the Russian energy import dependence of Hungary and of a large part of Central-Europe remained till the present days. The 'National Energy Strategy 2030' developed on the basis of the guideline, adopted in 2011, specified insurance of long-term sustainability, security and economic competitiveness as primary objective of the Hungarian energy policy. The Government intends to guarantee security of supply, to enforce environmental considerations and depending on the options of the country, to stand up for solving global problems through implementation of the strategy. The strategy intends to achieve the termination of the electricity import balance of the country until 2030 by this 'Nuclear-Coal-Green' scenario based on these three pillars.