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Item 0344-G. ; Cmit Pub 104-6. Replaces DA Pam 20-291, Feb. 1952. ; Mode of access: Internet.

How do changes in climatic conditions and disaster patterns affect the persistence of civil unrest across countries over time? Existing studies postulate that changing climate conditions will exacerbate various social conflicts through their impacts on degraded environmental and economic conditions, which is further conditional on political institutions. Nevertheless, there are two major pitfalls in the existing studies. First, vulnerability as a major underlying mechanism has been used as an umbrella term or been presumed. Using vulnerability as an umbrella term has a detrimental effect on climate-conflict theory-building because it prevents scholars from deriving testable empirical implications for relevant concepts. Second, previous research has pinpointed the importance of political institutions in moderating impacts of climate on conflict, but the literature says little about what aspects of political institutions might aggravate or alleviate vulnerability to climate in ways that are simmering or amplifying civil strife. Using the structural causal approach and machine learning methods, this dissertation improves the identification of the mediation effect of vulnerability and the moderation effect of political institutions on the climate-conflict relationship. The important mechanisms and implications revealed by this study are twofold. First, this dissertation finds that the impacts of extreme climatic events are more important in shaping local vulnerability than that of annual weather variations, and that adaptive capacity is more important than economic sensitivity in mitigating local vulnerability. Annual weather variations (i.e., the slow-moving mechanics) have a significant impact on cumulative conflict hazards, whereas extreme climatic events (i.e., the fast-moving drivers) fuel onset of a new conflict. In the presence of socio-psychological vulnerabilities, an increase in annual weather variations can boil new conflicts. Second, the state capacity is more important than democracy in exacerbating a country's vulnerability to climate, and the degree of executive bribery especially plays a crucial role in moderating the impacts of vulnerability to climate on civil conflict. However, of different aspects of democracy, freedom of academic and cultural expression has the most important moderating effect on conflict. What is striking is the role of socio-psychological vulnerability in transmitting the impacts of extreme climate and weather variations on civil conflict. Mainstream conflict theory has shown that institutional and economic conditions are the most important factors determining conflicts even though socio-psychological factors are meaningful contexts. However, this present study shows that socio-psychological vulnerability is more important than institutional and economic conditions in shaping civil conflict.

"Prepared by a committee of former German generals and general staff officers under the supervision of the Historical Division, EUCOM." ; "Supersedes MS T-36, "Influence of climate upon operations," which was given a limited distribution by the Office of the Chief of Military History, Special Staff, U.S. Army." ; Mode of access: Internet.

Context
The population dynamics of many wildlife species are associated with fluctuations in climate. Food and abundance may also influence wildlife dynamics.

Aims
The present paper aims to evaluate the relative effects of climate on the annual instantaneous population growth rate (r) of the following three bird species: grey heron and barn owl in parts of Britain and malleefowl in a part of Australia.

Methods
A priori hypotheses of mechanistic effects of climate are derived and evaluated using information theoretic and regression analyses and published data for the three bird species. Climate was measured as the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for herons and owls, and rainfall and also the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for malleefowl.

Key results
Population dynamics of grey heron were positively related to the winter NAO, and of malleefowl were positively related to annual rainfall and related in a non-linear manner to SOI. By contrast, population dynamics of barn owl were very weakly related to climate. The best models for the grey heron differed between time periods but always included an effect of the NAO.

Conclusions
The annual population growth rate of grey heron, malleefowl and barn owl show contrasting relationships with climate, from stronger (heron and malleefowl) to weaker (barn owl). The results were broadly consistent with reported patterns but differed in some details. Interpretation of the effects of climate on the basis of analyses rather than visual assessment is encouraged.

Implications
Effects of climate differ among species, so effects of future climate change may also differ.

Küresel rekabet ortamında değişimin hızlı bir şekilde organizasyonları etkilediği günümüzde örgütler için yükselen değer ?insan? dır. Artık bütün işletmeler çok kısa bir zamanda teknolojik eksikliklerini gidermekte, dünyanın neresinde olursa olsun hammadde ve enerji kaynaklarına eşit sürelerde ulaşabilmekte, sanal âlemde sınır tanımadan dünyanın her yerinde pazarlama imkânına ulaşabilmektedir. Maddi unsurların işletmeler için fark olmadığı bu yüzyılda artık örgüt için taklit edilemez temel değer ve fark insan olmuştur. Küresel düşünce anlayışı ve evrensel değerler, yönetim bilimlerini de değiştirmektedir. Bu açıdan yönetsel değerler içinde organizasyon yapısı yeniden şekillenmiş ve bu yeni yapıda insan ve insana ait özellikler yeni ve farklı konumunu almıştır.İnsanların farklılıkları tarih boyunca dikkati çeken, varlığı bilinen ve çoğu zaman istenmeyen durumlar olsa da yönetim bilimleri açısından farklılıkların yönetimi yeni bir yaklaşımdır. Bu yaklaşımda farklılık; örgütü tekdüzelikten kurtaran, olaylara yeni bakış ve değerleme açısı kazandıran, alternatif çözüm stratejileri geliştiren, örgüte ekonomik ve sosyal değer kazandıran bir olgudur. Farklılıklar örgüte yeni ufuklar kazandıran özelliklerin tamamıdır. Farklılıkların yönetimi ise; modern ötesi yönetim anlayışının yeni paradigmalara açılan kapısıdır.Örgüt içindeki bireysel farklılıkların işletme için rekabet avantajı oluşturmak amacıyla yönetmeyi öngören farklılıkların yönetimi yaklaşımı günümüz işletmeleri için gün geçtikçe önemi artan bir stratejiye dönüşmektedir. Farklılıkların yönetimi; örgütteki farklılıkları kullanarak bu farklılıkları örgütün amaçlarına hizmet eder hale getirip diğer örgütlere karşı taklit edilemez bir stratejiye ulaşmayı hedefler. Bu yönetim yaklaşımında örgüt içindeki farklılıklar önemsendiğinde ve yönetildiğinde yeni fikirlerin, alternatif çözüm önerilerinin, yeni bakış açılarının doğması sağlanacaktır. Bu anlamda örgüt üyeleri sahip olduğu farklılıkları işletme için önemli bir özellik olarak görmenin yanında huzurlu ve mutlu bir şekilde çalışmanın anahtarı olarak görür. İşletme insana dayalı bir değer oluşturacağı için çalışanlar kendini aidiyet duygusu ile örgütüne bağlı hissedecek; örgüt, olumlu, demokratik, pozitif bir örgüt iklimine sahip olacaktır. Bu nedenle farklılıkların yönetimi örgüt iklimini örgütün stratejik amaçlarına ve sosyal birliktelik duygularına hizmet eder hale getirir.Yöneticiler farklılıkların ön plana çıktığı yeni binyılda bu değerleri görmek ve örgütün varlığını sürdürmesi için bu farklılıkları yönetmeyi sağlamak durumundadır. ; Nowadays, human being is the rising worth in global competition atmospehere which affects organizations quickly. All the managements have the ability to reduce its technological lackings, acquire energy and row materials in all over the world in a short time and have the chance of marketing on internet life illimitably. In this century the basic worth for managements, material elements is no difference, is human being. Global thinking intelligence and universal worths affect government scholarship. In this aspect, the structure of organization in government worths has reshaped and in this new shape human and its characteristics has placed in its different and new place.Despite of the differences of people that take attention throughout the history, known and sometimes in case of the unwanted situations, it is a new approach to the management scholarship. The difference in this approach is a fact that rescues organization from monotonous, gives a new aspect and valuation to the situations, improves alternative solution strategies and brings organization economical and social worth. differences are the complete features that make organizations gain new horizans. On the other hand management of the differences is the new paradigmal way to the postmodern management understanding.Management of the differences in organizations, which stipulates individual differences in organizations to make an advantage with rivalry for organizations, becomes a rising strategy for organizations. Management of the differences uses the the differences in organizations and then makes these differences serve to the goals of organizations and finally aims to get an inaccesable rate. In this managment approach when the differences in organization are considered important, new ideas, alternative solutions and different looking aspects will arise. For this reason the members of the organizations will see the differences an important feature of operation and this is the key for a happy work life. As the organization belongs to human being, the workers feel themself bound to the organizations and by this way organization will have a positive, democratic atmosphere. for this reason management of differences makes the atmosphere of organization serve to the strategical goals of organizations and the emotion of social togetherness.As differences are foreground, managers need to provide this management in this millenium to see these worths and to make organization alive.

Global change triggers shifts in forest composition, with warming and aridification being particularly threatening for the populations located at the rear edge of the species distributions. This is the case of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in the Mediterranean Basin where uncertainties in relation to its dynamics under these changing scenarios are still high. We analysed the relative effect of climate on the recruitment patterns of Scots pine and its interactions with local biotic and abiotic variables at different spatial scales. Number of seedlings and saplings was surveyed, and their annual shoot growth measured in 96 plots located across altitudinal gradients in three different regions in the Iberian Peninsula. We found a significant influence of climate on demography and performance of recruits, with a non-linear effect of temperature on the presence of juveniles, and a positive effect of precipitation on their survival. Abundance of juveniles of P. sylvestris that underwent their first summer drought was skewed towards higher altitudes than the altitudinal mean range of the conspecific adults and the optimum elevation for seedlings' emergence. At local level, light availability did not influence juveniles' density, but it enhanced their growth. Biotic interactions were found between juveniles and the herb cover (competition) and between the number of newly emerged seedlings and shrubs (facilitation). Results also highlighted the indirect effect that climate exerts over the local factors, modulating the interactions with the pre-existing vegetation that were more evident at more stressful sites. This multiscale approach improves our understanding of the dynamics of these marginal populations and some management criteria can be inferred to boost their conservation under the current global warming. ; Funding was provided by the Spanish Ministry for Innovation and Science with the grant Consolider-Montes (CSD2008_00040), and the European Union with the projects BACCARA (CE: FP7-226299, 7FP) and FunDivEUROPE (CE: FP7-ENV-2010. 265171).