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This article question what are the causes of inaccuracies in opinion polls, and what is the political impact of opinion polls and their inherent risk of inaccuracies. Examples are provided of opinion polls that failed to predict the outcome of the 2008 Democratic primary elections. The author considers the strong US traditions of polling and ties to the academic community, and examines special issues present in American politics and the nomination process for the 2008 election to explain low polling accuracy. Statistical and methodological premises of opinion polls are discussed. It is suggested that the issue of race had an impact on respondents' willingness to answer truthfully questions about their candidate of choice in primary election opinion polls. A discussion of media presentation of polling results is included and it is argued that media organizations are increasingly ordering exclusive polls as opposed to reporting aggregate results from multiple polls conducted by independent sources. The bandwagon theory of the effect polling influencing results is discussed. The article refers to the American Association for Public Opinion Research special panel to shed light on pre-election polling. It is concluded that opinion polls will continue to have an important role in election reporting. References. E. Sundby

The United States Electoral College system is explained. Written six months prior to the 2008 US Presidential election, a multiple state analysis is presented to predict which states will be crucial to the Presidential election. The geographical analysis is based on opinion polls. Other issues considered important to the outcome in each state are the state of economy, the unpopularity of the current President, the war in Iraq, and the status of fundraising efforts. Historical shifts in individual states are discussed, with a focus on those that do not have a consistent history of voting consistent democrat or republican during the past four elections. The states are divided into segments of those Obama is likely to win, those McCain is likely to win, and those that are undecided. The undecided states are discussed according to geographic region; North, South, East, and West. It is concluded that the outcome of the election is unpredictable and various Electoral College votes scenarios are presented. Tables, Figures, Charts, References. E. Sundby

While a number of answers have been given by election research and electoral sociology why Norway is not a part of the European Union there is still room for alternative perspectives. An important but overlooked reason might be how the Norwegian population sees itself in the European context. Norwegians view themselves as open, small and healthy group, whereas they view Europe as a closed, large and sick entity. This view has not developed overnight, but is an outgrowth of largely historical reasons that date as far back as year 1660 and were strengthened by the events that took place in both the 19th and 20th century. L. Pitkaniemi

Jorgen Elklit critiques Nils O. Erlandsson's (2005) essay on mandate distribution methods & the general election process in Sweden, comparing Erlandsson's work with other existing material on the subject to conclude that Erlandsson has not sufficiently familiarized himself with these materials. Erlandsson replies to Elklit, reiterating his line of reasoning. Elklit responds to Erlandsson's reply. References. C. Brunski

2014 marked important milestones for Afghanistan. It gained a new political leadership by a democratic election, the NATO International Stabilisation Force (ISAF) was withdrawn, and the country took the initiative to a wider and more trusting cooperation with its neighbor Pakistan (RFE/RL 2014). 2015 is a crucial year. We will get an indication of whether Afghanistan can stand on its own and if the (partial) military extraction was wise, and to what extent the new administration is viable. Adapted from the source document.

The author examines the power of superdelegates to exert disproportionate influence on the selection of the Democratic nominee for president. It is asserted that superdelegates consist dominantly of the party elite or party machine and are primarily white males, which it is further argued goes to the heart of the elitist concept of American exceptionalism. The history of American exceptionalism is examined. The introduction of superdelegates into the Democratic Party nomination process and front-loading of state elections to influence the nomination process are discussed as examples of exceptionalist politics. Campaign financing and spending is discussed, including the issue of campaign finance reform. One perspective presented on superdelegates is that they are intended to balance out the liberal tendencies of the average democrat voter in the primary election to promote the nomination of a moderate candidate. References. E. Sundby

Many changes, both internally & externally, have been felt during the 20 yrs that a Democratic majority governed the US. Since Eisenhower's election in 1952 & re-election in 1956, it would be interesting to know to what extent the Republican majority can be considered to be stable. In 1956, the Democrats won the elections, the presidential party having failed, for the 1st time since 1848, to carry a majority to Congress in a Presidential election yr. PO polls show that there are 3 Democrats for every 2 Republicans. Stevenson was defeated because the Republicans were better organized than the Democrats, many of whom voted for Eisenhower or did not vote at all. Finally, the Republicans control almost all of the press & the media of propaganda & information, & the SS of Republicanism is more a matter of prestige than one of soc pressure. The Wc, while still almost exclusively Democratic in 1948, is becoming more & more Republican, while the moderates are gradually drifting from the Democratic party. Cath's, Ru voters, & individuals living in small towns are tending toward Republicanism, while the younger age groups of the New Deal generation are remaining faithful to the Democratic Party. The qualities of the candidates in 1952 & 1956 certainly played a role in the division of the votes, but if the prestige of the General was a factor, Stevenson also had traits in his favor. Domestic issues, especially the Negro question, had their influence, but foreign affairs is the area in which the diff's in the parties is most apparent. Tr by J. A. Broussard from IPSA.

The rebirth of the Liberal Party (LP), which has taken place in recent yrs in GB, can be explained, according to certain experts, by the upheaval in pol'al life due to the revolt of the Mc's Mc's against the 2 major parties. The Conservatives are decadent with power, but their decline has not profited the worker. This phenomenon has its roots in the evolution of the society. About 1890, a rupture in the core of the LP occurred which was followed by the replacement of the LP by the Labor Party after 1920. After a new 30 yr cycle the line of separation between the major tendencies of British pol'al life is again a question. In effect, the Laborites have realized their program after 1945 & are therefore in a defensive position. The Conservatives have not made an issue of the Welfare State & have tended to be pol'ly moderate. However, the effect of the soc reforms has been to increase the numbers of the Mc while reducing the standard of living of the wealthy & improving that of the Wc. This Mc is not satisfied with the programs of the major parties, as has been demonstrated by various minor elections & opinion polls. However, it must be remembered that the voters behave differently in general elections than they do in minor elections. Be that as it may, the possibility of a Parliament without a majority, & with some 40 or so LP members making the diff between the 2 major parties, must not be ignored as an eventuality in the near future. Tr by J. A. Broussard from IPSA.

A little over a month before election day, victory in the race between George W. Bush & John Kerry appeared to depend on closely divided opinion among voters in a few battleground states, whose blocks of votes in the Electoral College could well decide the outcome. The essay interprets polls, interviews, & news reports with registered voters in four of these states: two so-called small states, one leaning toward Bush (MO) & one leaning toward Kerry (WA); & two large states, both highly contested, but one leaning toward Bush in some recent polls (OH), & another where opinion is too close to call the likely result (PA). The analysis focuses on the issues that voters considered most important in these states & nationally, policy regarding the economic problems, especially job losses, & approaches to dealing with terrorism & the war in Iraq. 28 References. Adapted from the source document.