Suchergebnisse

Tenth elections for the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia since the reestablishment of a multiparty system were held on March 16th, 2014, under a proportional electoral system. Electoral model essentially established in 2000 also included a single electoral district, closed party lists, five percent electoral threshold for non-minority parties and a use of D'Hondt formula for distribution of seats. Most important results of the March elections include: the lowest voter turnout and close to half of the votes won by the Serbian Progressive Party (which, in turn, gave them 63% of parliament members). Moreover, more than 80 percent of the seats was won by lists led by governing parties, i. e. Progressive or Socialist party. Elections were also not just a disaster for Democratic party, but also for Democratic Party of Serbia, Liberal Democratic Party, and United Regions of Serbia, which all lost seats in the National Assembly. Traditional success of the minority parties of most numerous national minorities (i.e. Hungarians, Bosniaks and Albanians) was noted. Also, for the first time, the parliament will convene without so-called sovereignists and opponents of European integration process. Finally, March elections were marked by a large number of squandered votes.

The article proposes to analyze electoral violence in the 2018 municipal elections in Ilha de Moçambique, from a mixed approach through quantitative and qualitative data. Having triggered the inquiry through semi-open interviews, to voters who voted in the 2018 municipal elections in Ilha de Moçambique, we sought to understand the dynamics of acts of electoral violence and their meanings in Ilha de Moçambique. The research indicates that the electoral violence in Ilha de Moçambique has alarming levels, mostly led by members and sympathizers of political parties during the electoral race, due to the lack of political and civic education of party members and fear of losing power. We also noted that the biggest victims of these violent electoral acts are the members and sympathizers of political parties and that the sabotage of campaign material, intimidation, beatings, deaths and arrests are assumed to be the most common violent acts during the entire electoral process. The research also indicates that electoral violence has contributed to abstentions in the voting process, as people are afraid to approach polling stations for fear of physical or verbal aggression by the various political actors in the municipality, as electoral violence has become in a ritual.

Doktorska disertacija nastoji da objasni rezultate višestranačkih parlamentarnih izbora u Srbiji od 1990. godine do prve mirne smene vlasti 2000. godine sa stanovišta informisanosti publike o izbornim opcijama. U njoj je potvrđena generalna hipoteza da su informativni televizijski programi o izborima za Skupštinu Srbije tokom 1990-tih godina onemogućavali slobodnu i poštenu utakmicu izbornih rivala. Umesto da biračima ponude adekvatne informacije kao osnovu za racionalan izbor, oni su sistematski favorizovali jednog izbornog učesnika u odnosu na druge. U radu se utvrđuju glavne medijske strategije uticaja na mišljenje birača na osnovu empirijske analize televizijske prezentacije izbora u periodu 1990-2000. godina. Kvantitativno-kvalitativna analiza sadržaja obuhvata redovne informativne programe i specijalizovane izborne programe proizvedene tokom kampanje za izbore za Skupštinu Srbije 1990, 1992, 1993, 1997. i 2000. godine. Analiza je fokusirana na utvrđivanje centralne strategije medijske prezentacije izbora u svakom pojedinačnom ciklusu, identifikovanje slike društvene i političke realnosti kao konteksta u koji se smeštaju informacije o aktivnostima izbornih učesnika, utvrdjivanje glavne teme-dileme izborne kampanje u odnosu na koju se pozicioniraju izborni učesnici i utvrđivanje televizijskih imidža glavnih izbornih rivala. Analizi medijske slike izbora prethodi razmatranje političkog, pravnog i medijskog konteksta u kome su izbori održani. Analiza je potvrdila radne hipoteze da je izborno izveštavanje državne televizije RTS (RTB) od 1990. do 2000. godine podsticalo biračku podršku za vladajuću stranku – Socijalističku partiju Srbije (SPS) ili njenu koaliciju – sistematskom diskriminacijom njenih izbornih rivala; da su specijalizovani izborni programi državne televizije favorizovali interese vladajuće partije SPS ili njene koalicije u odnosu na interese drugih izbornih učesnika i favorizovali interese izbornih učesnika u odnosu na interese birača; i da je redovno TV izveštavanje o aktuelnim neizbornim događajima omogućavalo da izborne poruke jednog izbornog učesnika budu lakše prihvatljive za birače od poruka njegovih izbornih rivala. Način na koji je izveštavanje o izborima kontekstuirano u specifičnu sliku neizbornih događaja identifikovan je kao ključna dugoročna strategija uticaja na birače, zajedno sa medijskim definisanjem smisla izbora u skladu sa interesima jednog izborno učesnika - poželjnog izbornog pobednika. Doktorska disertacija je potvrdila teorijsku hipotezu da kulturološke studije nude pogodnu teorijsku i analitičku osnovu za istraživanje uloge medija u izbornoj komunikaciji u Srbiji tokom 1990-tih godina. ; The doctoral thesis aims to explain the results of multiparty parliamentary elections in Serbia from 1990 until the first peaceful change in power in 2000 from the standpoint of information about election options available to voters. The thesis confirms a general hypothesis that the information TV programs about elections for the Parliament of Serbia during the 1990-ies prevented a free and fair competition of election rivals. Instead of offering adequate information to voters as a basis for a rational choice, TV programs systematically favored one election participant over others. The thesis identifies the main media strategies of influencing the opinion of voters on the basis of empirical analysis of television presentation of elections in the period 1990-2000. The quantitative-qualitative content analysis is applied to regular news programs and specialized electoral broadcasts produced during campaigns for elections for the Parliament of Serbia in 1990, 1992, 1993, 1997 and 2000. The analysis is focused on identifying the central strategy of the media presentation in each election cycle, the picture of social and political reality as a context for the information on activities of election participants, the main issue of the election campaign and TV images of the main election rivals. The analysis of the media picture of the elections is preceded by a review of political, legal and media context in which the elections took place. The analysis confirmed the working hypothesis that the election coverage of the state television RTS (RTB) from 1990 until 2000 mobilized the voters' support for the ruling party – Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) or its coalition – by a systematic discrimination of its election rivals; that the specialized programs of the state television favored the interests of the ruling party SPS or its coalition in comparison to interests of other election contestants as well as the interests of election participants over the interests of voters; and that the regular Serbian television news reporting about non-election events made the messages of one election participant more easily acceptable by voters than the messages of other contestants. The way the coverage of election events was placed into a specific picture of non-election events is identified as the key long-term strategy for influencing the voters' decision, together with the media definition of the meaning of the election which was in accord with the interests of one election participant – the preferred election winner. The thesis confirmed a theoretical hypothesis that cultural studies offer a convenient theoretical and analytical basis for studying the role of the media in election communication in Serbia during the 1990's.

In this article Dr Pribicevic analyses the impact of Kosovo crises on Serbian EU integrations and shaping of political scene of Serbia. Dr Pribicevic pointed out how crises started in spring 2011 when idea of split of Kosovo appeared again in Serbia and then continued with the clashes between KFOR and Serbs from north of Kosovo in order to get the control of administrative crossing Jarinje and Brnjak. During the summer 2011 German chancellor Merkel visited Serbia and asked government in Belgrade to normalize its relations with Kosovo and dissolve "parallel institutions" of Serbs in the north of Kosovo. Following this visit Serbian government continue its negotiations with Pristina and find out solutions for administrative crossings. On the other side, Belgrade and Pristina didn't find solution for the problem of presentation of Kosovo on the regional gatherings after what European council, under the German influence, decided to postpone the decision to give Serbia the status of candidate for the EU. Therefore, Serbia remains without EU candidaturein December 2011 in spite of the fact that government in Belgrade handedover general Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic to Hague Tribunal as well as conducted a number of successful reforms which got very high marks from EU commission. In this article Dr Pribicevic is trying to answer several questions. Why Washington and Berlin imposed such a strong pressure on Serbia in this moment? Is split of Kosovo possible solution? Could Serbian government continue with current politics of EU and Kosovo or it should take one of these politics as a priority? How Kosovo crises influenced Serbian political scene? At the end, Kosovo crises opened the crucial question: could Serbia enter EU without "recognition of territorial integrity of Kosovo"as described by German foreign minister Westervele. Having in mind forthcoming elections in spring time 2012 author thinks that ruling Democratic Party as well as leading opposition party Sebian Progresive Party will continue with current politics "both EU and Kosovo". Such politics will be in accordance with the public mood in Serbia which shows that support for EU integrations is declining with the growing pressure of US and Germany on Serbian Kosovo's politics. On the other side, Serbian politics "both EU and Kosovo" is not sustainable on the long run and Serbia has to face difficult decisions in future. Also, according to the author opinion Kosovo crises showed weakness of Serbian international position. It is without important allies among key Western powers which has dominant influence in this part of Europe. Serbia has support of Russia but key influence on Kosovo has US, GB, France and Germany. These powers connected Serbia's further progress towards EU with normalization its relations with Kosovo, knowing in advance that the time when Serbia is seeking for the EU candidature is the best time to ask Belgrade to make concessions in its Kosovo's politics. Western powers do not expect Serbia to recognize Kosovo but they expect Serbia to accept " territorial integrity of Kosovo", including its north part. Why Kosovo become so important for leading Western powers? Author thinks that several reasons influenced such tough behavior of Western power towards Serbia. First, after helping them to create an independent state, US perceived Albanians as the most reliable ally in this part of Europe. Second, Germany and other big powers in Europe wants to prevent creation of new frozen conflict in Europe similar to Cyprus one, Third, all big Western powers has reserves towards Serbian foreign policy and its orientation on EU but as well as on Russia, nonalignment world, China which quite often is described in the West as sitting on the two chairs, Last but not the least, Germany as well as France is not very eager of politics of enlargement of EU in the eve of forthcoming elections in these countries scheduled for 2012 and 2013. Therefore its hesitation in this moment towards further enlargement with US pro Albanian politics creates tough dillemas for Serbian politics in foreseeable future.

This article aims to analyze how the distrust of a significant portion of Brazilians both in their democratic institutions and in relation to democracy itself, influenced or the election of President Jair Bolsonaro. For this, we conducted a bibliographic research, using institutionalist and, especially, culturalist theories. Thus, we perceive as possible explanatory factors, on the one hand, the recent Brazilian democracy that preserves traces of the dictatorial past in its political culture. On the other hand, as distortions between the functioning of democratic institutions, in a context of incentive to "delegative democracies", which "guides" part of the citizens to identify themselves with charismatic leaders who present themselves as outsiders within this discredited political system. In the scenario in which the media played a central role in electoral disputes.

The goal of this article is to present an initial overview of 2012 US Presidential elections, discussing the Republican Party primary election process, suggesting hypothesis regarding the definition of the Republican candidate to the White House and the general challenges facing President Obama´s reelection. ; O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar um panorama inicial das eleições presidenciais de 2012 nos Estados Unidos, avaliando o processo de primárias do Partido Republicano, hipóteses sobre os possíveis cenários de definição do candidato republicano à Casa Branca e os desafios gerais da reeleição para o Presidente Obama.

This article aims to discuss how digital social networks contribute to the political-electoral debate. The research involves two theoretical aspects: one about the centrality of electoral coverage and other about social media as a space for distribution and circulation of journalistic contents. Based on this discussion, we analyze the content published on the fanpages of 9 newspapers of the Northeastern - O Estado do maranhão (MA), Meio Norte (PI), O Povo (CE), Tribuna do Norte (RN), A Tarde (BA), Jornal da Paraíba (PB), Diário de Pernambuco (PE), Gazeta de Alagoas (AL) and Jornal da Cidade (SE) - during the electoral period of 2016. The objective is to identify the visibility given to the political-electoral issue, the candidates and which campaign sub-themes are published. 9,993 posts were categorized. ; Este artigo discute como as redes sociais digitais contribuem com o debate político-eleitoral. A pesquisa envolve duas vertentes teóricas, sendo uma relacionada à centralidade da cobertura eleitoral e a outra tratando das redes sociais como um espaço de distribuição e circulação de conteúdos jornalísticos. A partir disso, analisa-se o conteúdo publicado nas páginas do Facebook de nove jornais do Nordeste - O Estado do maranhão (MA), Meio Norte (PI), O Povo (CE), Tribuna do Norte (RN), A Tarde (BA), Jornal da Paraíba (PB), Diário de Pernambuco (PE), Gazeta de Alagoas (AL) e Jornal da Cidade (SE) – durante o período eleitoral de 2016. Com este recorte, o objetivo é identificar a visibilidade dada ao tema político-eleitoral, aos candidatos e aos subtemas de campanha. No total, foram categorizadas 9.993 postagens.

This paper deals with a critical discourse analysis (CDA) of pre-election TV commercials inthe last two campaigns of 2012 and of 2014 in Serbia. The aim of the research is to deconstruct thestrategy of political parties in the field of gender sensitization from a gender perspective based onthe most important activity of parliamentary democracy – the election cycle, using examples ofpaid political advertising – the pre-election TV clip, for which the parties allocated the most resourcesin the campaign of 2012 and of 2014 in Serbia. The aim is also to analyze the personalexperience of female politicians in order to provide a new and different way of analyzing practicesand strategies of the parties in relation to the visibility of female candidate in the mediaduring the election campaign.The basic method is the critical discourse analysis (CDA) complemented by the method ofcomparing the regular election campaign of 2012 and the early elections of 2014, and the methodof life stories of the candidates (oral history). The CDA puts a special emphasis on various forms of discrimination that result from the abuse of power that continues to lead to the emergence ofsocial inequality and injustice (Dijk 2008).There are three levels at which the (in)visibility of women in the political process can be observed:a) the (lack of) presence of women on the candidate lists in the election campaign, andafter the elections, the (decreased) number of women in the parliament; b) (in)visibility of womenin paid media campaigns and c) (in)visibility of women in the language.Practice: a) On the basis of the "principle of affirmative action", women become more presenton the candidate lists and in the parliament as a result of the introduction of quota into the gendersensitive legislation (all SEE countries – Southeast Europe/Western Balkans). b) Women are stillrarely seen in the pre-election TV clip which is the most effective paid advertising, because it is atraditionally male "space", while women are more active in reach-out field work. c) visibility ofwomen in language is achieved, for example, by the use of the Gender-sensitive language Code.(S. Savić).In this paper the focus is on the sub-paragraphs (a) and (b), with (c) being analyzed in a limitedmanner only as part of the pre-election TV clip slogans analysis.A TV clip is comprised of: the slogan and the body of the clip. The slogan is made of aniconic and a linguistic part. In both campaign slogans there were no gender sensitive slogans,except for one in 2014 (URS's campaign for the female Mayor of Belgrade). The body is made ofthe video format and the content. In both campaigns, in 2012 and in 2014 forms of videos werehybrid types that included: documentary footage from the field, speech of the leader speakingdirectly in camera, animation, short fiction form.The analysis confirmed the basic hypothesis: despite the fact that, according to the legal provisionsa female candidate occupied every third position of the candidate lists in both analyzedelection cycles – they are underrepresented in paid political advertising in the media (TV clip).Individual hypotheses are also confirmed.The icons and the contents of the presentation of Serbia in the election cycle in 2012 and in2014 in the election TV clips were masculinized from the standpoint of power in society that isheld by male party leaders. The basic strategy of all parties who had a paid television campaign,in a form of TV clips, in both observed election cycles was the strategy of exclusion from thepolitical space mediated by the media. So we are here talking about a media, and by that, a widersocial invisibility of women in exercising one of the fundamental rights, the right to participationin decision-making and active participation in the elections. ; Cilj rada je da dekonstruiše strategije političkih partija iz rodne perspective u odnosu natelevizijsko predizborno političko plaćeno oglašavanje u kampanjama 2012. i 2014. u Srbiji.Cilj je takođe da se analizira lično iskustvo političarki da bi se na nov i drugačiji način analizirale prakse i strategije partija u odnosu na vidljivost kandidatkinja u vreme predizborne kampanjeu medijima. Metode korišćene u istraživanju su: kritička analiza medijskog diskursa(jedinica analize je tv spot u celini, verbalna, vizuelna i zvučna komponenta), komparativnametoda i životne priče kandidatkinja. Osnovna hipoteza je da bez obzira na to što su, shodnozakonskim odredbama, na kandidatskim listama, u oba analizirana izborna ciklusa, ženezauzimale svako treće mesto – one su podzastupljene u plaćenom političkom medijskom reklamiranju(TV spotu). Osnovni rezultat je da su medijske plaćene kampanje bile maskulinizirane.U fokusu je samo partijski lider. Kandidatkinje su podzastupljene u oba posmatranaperioda. Partije nisu rodno senzibilisane kada je reč o političkom plaćenom oglašavanju uvreme predizborne kampanje.

Izbori i izborni sistemi su veoma važan faktor funkcionisanja političkih sistema i njihove demokratizacije. Kraj prošlog veka doneo je temeljite promene bivšim socijalstičkim društvima širom starog kontinenta. Politički pluralizam, demokratija i tržišna ekonomija postale su široko prihvaćene vrednosti za bivša komunistička društva. Ovo je, sa druge strane, povećalo značaj izbora u svim ovim zemljama, uključujući Republiku Makedoniju. Veoma je teško tvrditi da li su izbori u Republici Makedoniji, od početka njenog postojanja kao nezavisne države, uvek bili u skladu sa pravilima naprednih demokratija, ali svejedno ostaje činjenica da su omogućili demokratiju u ovoj zemlji. Republika Makedonija prihvatila je parlamentarizam i u kontinuitetu iskazivala sve veće poštovanje za volju građana izraženu na fer i slobodnim izborima, iako je u nekoliko aspekata pokazala nedostatak političke kulture i tendencije koje bi se mogle nazvati demokratskim manipulisanjem demokratijom. Glavni cilj ovog rada je da pruži pregled izbora i razvoja izbornih modela u političkom sistemu Republike Makedonije. Kao što će to u radu biti predstavljeno, Republika Makedonija je u ove dve decenije svoje nezavisnosti primenjivala čist većinski izborni model, kombinovani izborni model i proporcionalni model, koji je trenutno u upotrebi. ; Elections and electoral systems are a factor of great importance for the functioning of political systems and their democratization. The end of the last century brought fundamental changes to ex socialist societies all over the old continent. Political pluralism, democracy and market economy became the largely accepted values for ex communist societies. This on the other hand resulted in an increased importance of elections in all these countries, including the Republic of Macedonia. It is very hard to argue weather election in the Republic of Macedonia from the very beginnings of its functioning as an independent country have always been in accordance with the rules of advanced democracies, but never the less the fact remains that they have made democracy in this country possible. The Republic of Macedonia has accepted parliamentarism and has shown in continuity an increasing respect for the will of citizens expressed in fair and free elections, although in several aspects it has shown a lack of political culture and tendencies for what might be called a democratic manipulation of democracy. The main objective of this paper is to provide an overview of elections and the evolution of the electoral models in the political system of the Republic of Macedonia. As will be presented in the paper the Republic of Macedonia in these two decades of functioning as an independent country has implemented the pure majoritarian electoral model, the combined electoral model and the proportional model which is being actually implemented.

Van Reybrouck, D. (2016). Against Elections: The Case for Democracy. London, UK: The Bodley Head. ISBN: 9781847924223. ; Van Reybrouck, D. (2016). Against Elections: The Case for Democracy. London, UK: The Bodley Head. ISBN: 9781847924223. ; Van Reybrouck, D. (2016). Against Elections: The Case for Democracy (Traduzido por Liz Waters). London,UK: The Bodley Head. ISBN: 9781847924223.

The close relationship between money and votes has been exposed in contemporary democracies through the influence of the former in election results and in the creation of public policies. Studies have pointed out that the progressive inequity of financial resources available to the candidates running for elections unbalances democracy and promotes plutocracy, increasing the oligarchical ruling over the political processes by the wealthiest citizens and groups. This work contributes to this debate by analyzing the relationship between fundraising and electoral performance and the success of 317,107 candidates running in local legislative elections in 2008, 2012, and 2016 in 441 Brazilian municipalities with over 50,000 inhabitants. This is an unprecedented study regarding its period, filling a gap in electoral studies on sub-national elections, particularly regarding elections for the legislative branch. Data was collected from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court, from candidate lists, results, and accounting. The tests and data analysis and information employed correlation and regression statistical resources, along with central measures and odds ratio. The results confirmed a strong association between money, vote, and electoral success, including in the 2016 election when company donations had been prohibited. The maintenance of a pattern, regarding both time and geography, indicates the existence of structural characteristics of a plutocratic character in the election funding of those running for the council in the municipalities studied and, consequently, in the creation of public policies in Brazil. ; La intimidad entre dinero y voto ha sido expuesta en las democracias contemporáneas a través de su influencia en los resultados electorales y en la producción de políticas públicas. Los estudios muestran que la desigualdad progresiva entre los recursos financieros de los candidatos en las elecciones debilita la democracia y promueve la plutocracia, es decir, aumenta el dominio oligárquico en los procesos políticos por parte de los ciudadanos y grupos más ricos. Contribuyendo a este debate, el presente trabajo analiza la relación entre los ingresos por financiamiento y el desempeño y el éxito electoral de 317.107 candidatos a concejal en las elecciones de 2008, 2012 y 2016 en 441 municipios brasileños con más de 50 mil votantes. Es un estudio sin precedentes en su alcance temporal que permite suplir la falta de estudios sobre elecciones subnacionales, especialmente en disputas relacionadas con el Poder Legislativo Municipal. Los datos utilizados provienen del Tribunal Superior Electoral, de los cuadros de candidaturas, resultados y rendición de cuentas. Las pruebas y análisis de datos e información utilizan recursos estadísticos de correlación y regresión, además de medidas centrales y razón de probabilidades. Los resultados confirman una fuerte asociación entre dinero, votación y éxito electoral, incluso en las elecciones de 2016, cuando se prohibieron las donaciones corporativas. El mantenimiento de un patrón tanto temporal como geográfico indica la existencia de características estructurales de carácter plutocrático en el financiamiento electoral de los candidatos a concejal en las ciudades encuestadas y, en consecuencia, en la producción de políticas públicas en Brasil. ; A intimidade entre dinheiro e voto tem sido exposta nas democracias contemporâneas por meio de sua influência nos resultados eleitorais e na produção de políticas públicas. Estudos apontam que a progressiva iniquidade entre os recursos financeiros dos candidatos nas eleições abala a democracia e promove a plutocracia, ou seja, amplia o domínio oligárquico dos processos políticos pelos cidadãos e pelos grupos mais ricos. Contribuindo para esse debate, o presente trabalho analisa a relação entre receitas de financiamento e o desempenho e o sucesso eleitoral de 317.107 candidaturas a vereador nas eleições de 2008, 2012 e 2016, em 441 municípios brasileiros com mais de 50 mil eleitores. Trata-se de um estudo inédito em sua abrangência temporal, que permite suprir uma carência de exames sobre eleições subnacionais, em especial nas disputas ao Legislativo municipal. Os dados utilizados têm origem no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, nas tabelas de candidaturas, nos resultados e na prestação de contas. Os testes e as análises de dados e informações utilizam recursos estatísticos de correlação e regressão, além de medidas centrais e razão de chances. Os resultados permitem confirmar uma forte associação entre dinheiro, voto e sucesso eleitoral, inclusive no pleito de 2016, quando estiveram proibidas as doações empresariais. A manutenção de um padrão, tanto temporal quanto geográfico, indica a existência de características estruturais de caráter plutocrático no financiamento eleitoral dos candidatos a vereador nas cidades pesquisadas e, consequentemente, sobre a produção de políticas públicas no Brasil.

The article seeks to analyze the performance of crowdfunding as a fundraising strategy in the election campaign for the Brazilian Congress in the 2018 general elections. The article also analyzes the influence of the socioeconomic and demographic profiles of the candidates associated with the decision to adopt crowdfunding. The methodology used was logistic regression, considering the following independent variables: funds raised, education, age, race, and marital status of the candidate, in addition to the party's ideology, size, and age of the party. The binary dependent variables were: use of crowdfunding (or not) and the campaign's outcome. The data source was the Electoral Data Repository of the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE), with information from all candidates running for federal deputy in all Brazilian states in the 2018 general elections. The resulting analysis shows that crowdfunding was statistically more used by white, young, highly educated candidates from the Southern region of Brazil. There is also evidence that crowdfunding is an electoral strategy used especially by candidates from recently created parties, from the left, center-left or right (those in the center and center-right did not use crowdfunding as frequently) and larger parties. Finally, the econometric model points to an average increase of 5.55 percentage points in the probability of electoral success of candidates using crowdfunding. ; El artículo busca analizar el desempeño del crowdfunding como estrategia de captación de fondos para la campaña electoral de diputado federal en las elecciones generales de Brasil en 2018. También se analizó la influencia de las características socioeconómicas y demográficas de los candidatos asociada a la decisión de adoptar el financiamiento colectivo como alternativa de recaudación en la campaña electoral. Se utilizó la metodología de regresión logística considerando las siguientes variables independientes: valores recaudados, nivel de instrucción, edad, raza y estado civil del candidato, además de la ideología, tamaño y antigüedad de su partido político. Las variables dependientes binarias fueron: uso o no de crowdfunding y éxito o fracaso electoral. La fuente de datos fue el Tribunal Superior Electoral de Brasil (TSE), con información de todos los candidatos a diputado federal en la elección de 2018. Entre los resultados alcanzados está que el crowdfunding fue estadísticamente más utilizado por candidatos blancos, jóvenes y de alto nivel de escolaridad y de la región sur de Brasil. También hay evidencia de que el crowdfunding es una estrategia electoral utilizada especialmente por candidatos de partidos de reciente creación, de izquierda, centro-izquierda o derecha (los de centro y centro-derecha registraron menos uso) y tamaño de los partidos políticos. Finalmente, el modelo econométrico apunta a un aumento promedio del 5,55 puntos porcentuales en la probabilidad de éxito electoral de los candidatos que utilizaron el crowdfunding. ; O artigo busca analisar o desempenho do financiamento coletivo (crowdfunding) como estratégia de arrecadação de recursos para a campanha eleitoral a deputado federal nas eleições de 2018. Também foi analisada a influência de características socioeconômicas e demográficas dos candidatos associada à decisão de adoção do financiamento coletivo como alternativa arrecadatória na campanha eleitoral. A metodologia utilizada foi a de regressão logística, considerando as seguintes variáveis independentes: valores arrecadados, escolaridade, idade, raça e estado civil do candidato, além de ideologia, tamanho e antiguidade do partido. As variáveis dependentes binárias foram: utilização ou não do crowdfunding e sucesso ou insucesso eleitoral. A fonte de dados foi o repositório de dados eleitorais do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), com informações de todos os candidatos a deputado federal, de todos os estados brasileiros, no pleito de 2018. Entre os resultados obtidos, encontra-se que o crowdfunding foi estatisticamente mais usado por candidatos brancos, jovens, de alta escolaridade e da região Sul. Há evidências também de que o crowdfunding seja uma estratégia eleitoral utilizada sobretudo por candidatos de partidos de criação recente, de esquerda, centro-esquerda ou de direita – os de centro e centro-direita tiveram menor utilização –, e daqueles com maior bancada. Por fim, o modelo econométrico aponta um acréscimo médio de 5,55 pontos percentuais na probabilidade de sucesso eleitoral dos candidatos que se valeram do crowdfunding.

This work aims to identify how political factors are related to health inequalities from the approach of state capacities, considering that these indicate a necessary condition for a potential reduction of health inequalities. For this, a synthetic indicator of state capacities in health was formulated for the 5,570 Brazilian municipalities from 2013 to 2015, and through descriptive analyzes and econometric regression models of panel data and logistic regression, we sought to answer the following questions: (I) is the dependence of voters on the public health system correlated with the levels of state capacity in health and, consequently, with the levels of inequality?; (II) do left parties reduce health inequalities more in relation to other parties?; and (III) are municipal governments that reduce health inequalities politically rewarded through re-election? The results indicate that (I) higher levels of dependence are correlated with higher levels of state capacity; (II) leftist parties no longer reduce health inequalities; (III) voters reward municipal governments for reducing health inequalities, although there is no unanimous standard in this regard. ; Este trabalho objetiva identificar de que forma os fatores políticos se relacionam com as desigualdades em saúde a partir da abordagem das capacidades estatais, considerando que estas indicam uma condição necessária para uma redução potencial das desigualdades em saúde. Para isso foi formulado um indicador sintético de capacidades estatais em saúde para os 5.570 municípios brasileiros de 2013 a 2015, e por meio de análises descritivas e modelos econométricos de regressão de dados em painel e regressão logística se buscou responder às seguintes perguntas: (I) a dependência dos eleitores sobre o sistema público de saúde se correlaciona com os níveis de capacidade estatal em saúde e consequentemente nos níveis de desigualdade ?; (II) os partidos de esquerda reduzem mais as desigualdades em saúde em relação aos outros partidos?; e (III) os governos municipais que reduzem as desigualdades em saúde são recompensados politicamente por meio da reeleição? Os resultados indicam que (I) maiores níveis de dependência se correlacionam com maiores níveis de capacidade estatal; (II) os partidos de esquerda não reduzem mais as desigualdades em saúde; (III) os eleitores recompensam os governos municipais pela redução das desigualdades em saúde, embora não haja um padrão unanime em relação a este aspecto.

The economic literature has discussed the effects of public spending on the probability of re-election, pointing out that voters tend to evaluate the performance of politics based on the pre-election period (political myopia). In this context, this study investigates the influence of public investments on the re-election of municipal mayors in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, between 2001 and 2012. Using Logistic regression, we find that voters from the State of Espírito Santo, in general, reward the mayors who promote increments related to public investment in the period surrounding the elections, which is consistent with results in the political cycles and electoral behavior literature, although no empirical evidence was found that those voters are conservative in a fiscal perspective. ; La literatura económica ha discutido los efectos del gasto público sobre las posibilidades de reelección de los gobernantes, y señaló que los votantes tienden a evaluar el desempeño de los políticos en función de su rendimiento en el período pre-electoral (miopía política). En este contexto, este trabajo investiga la influencia de la inversión pública sobre la reelección de los alcaldes de los municipios en el estado de Espírito Santo, entre 2001 y 2012. A través de la metodología de regresión logística, los resultados sugieren que los votantes del Espírito Santo en general recompensan a los alcaldes que promueven incrementos en la inversión pública en el periodo cercano a las elecciones, que parece consistente con la literatura más reciente de los ciclos políticos y comportamiento electoral, aunque no había ninguna evidencia empírica de que los votantes son conservadores en el punto de vista fiscal. ; A literatura econômica tem debatido os efeitos dos gastos públicos sobre as chances de recondução dos governantes, apontando que os eleitores tendem a avaliar com um maior peso a performance dos políticos tendo por base seu desempenho no período pré-eleitoral (miopia política). Nesse contexto, este trabalho investiga a influência dos investimentos públicos sobre a recondução dos prefeitos dos municípios do estado do Espírito Santo, entre 2001 e 2012. Por meio da metodologia de regressão logística, os resultados sugerem que os eleitores capixabas, de modo geral, premiam os prefeitos que promovem incrementos relativos de investimentos públicos no período próximo às eleições, o que se mostra consistente com a literatura mais recente de ciclos políticos e de comportamento elei­toral, embora não tenha havido a comprovação empírica de que os eleitores sejam conservadores sob a ótica fiscal.

The motives for choosing the government's chief executive are of vital importance in a democratic society. In this article, evidence is presented of how local economic growth in the last year of government has a positive impact on the percentage of votes obtained by the incumbent in a population sample of Brazilian municipalities, with data of the presidential and municipal elections of 2000 to 2010. Real GDP growth of the city is used as a measure of local economic growth to test the hypothesis that voters in a municipality tend to reward incumbents and their candidates, if they had good economic performance in the last year of their mandate. The hypothesis is based on the economic theory of voting, suggesting that incumbents are more likely to win re-election, or elect their successor, when the economy is good. Panel and Multilevel models are used to detail the effects and the impact of economic growth in the proportion of votes obtained by the incumbent. The multilevel analysis was used in order to better explore existing heterogeneity in the economic voting phenomenon and thereby infer how economic growth effects may vary among parties, the federation units, constituency and other variables. ; La investigación de los factores que influyen en la elección del jefe del Ejecutivo en Brasil es un asunto de vital impor­tancia en la literatura. En este artículo, presentamos evidencia de que el crecimiento económico local en el último año del gobierno tiene un impacto positivo en el porcentaje de votos obtenidos por el incumbente en una muestra de los municipios brasileños, con datos relativos a las elecciones presidenciales y municipales de 2000 a 2010. Utilizamos el crecimiento real del PIB municipal como medida de crecimiento económico local para poner a prueba la hipótesis de que los votantes en una ciudad tienden a recompensar el titular y sus candidatos que tuvieron un buen desempeño económico en el último año de mandato. La hipótesis se base en la teoría económica de la votación que sugiere que los titulares tienen más probabilidades de ganar la reelección, o elegir a su sucesor, cuando la economía está en un buen momento. En el análisis se utiliza los métodos de datos de panel y el análisis multinivel con el fin de aprovechar mejor la heterogeneidad existente en el fenómeno del voto económico y con ello inferir la existencia de efectos del crecimiento económico sobre la proporción de votos obtenidos por el incumbente y cómo estos efectos pueden variar en relación a partidos, las unidades de la federación, circunscripción electoral y otras variables. ; A investigação dos fatores que influenciam a escolha do chefe do Executivo no Brasil é uma questão de vital importância. Neste artigo, apresentam-se evidências de que o crescimento econômico local no último ano de governo possui impacto positivo na porcentagem de votos obtidos pelo incumbente em uma amostra da população dos municípios brasileiros, com dados das eleições presidenciais e municipais de 2000 a 2010. Usamos a expansão real do PIB municipal como medida do crescimento econômico local e testamos a hipótese de que os eleitores em um município premiam os incumbentes, ou seus respectivos candidatos, que tiveram bom desempenho econômico no último ano de mandato. A hipótese se baseia na teoria econômica do voto que sugere que os incumbentes têm mais chances de vencer uma reeleição, ou eleger seu sucessor, quando a economia está em um bom momento. Na análise utilizamos as abordagens para dados em painel, além de análise multinível, de modo a melhor explorar a heterogeneidade existente no fenômeno do voto econômico e com isso inferir a existência de efeitos do crescimento econômico na proporção de votos obtidos pelo incumbente e como esses efeitos podem variar em relação a partidos, unidades da federação, circunscrição eleitoral e outras variáveis.