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Prepared at the direction of the Special Task Force on Energy of the National Conference of State Legislatures with the support and cooperation of the Federal Energy Administration. ; Mode of access: Internet.

I have been involved in energy modelling for planning and policy making for more than ten years now and I am still convinced that systematic and careful modelling can contribute to better decisions in the energy policy area. I think I should make this statement right at the beginning, because my contribution will be somewhat critical. It will to some extend focus on the failures, misuses and unresolved issues in energy policy modelling rather than report about the successes, which although they are there, are still small compared with the potential benefits and prospects, that energy models can offer to the decision makers. Nevertheless I will start with a brief review of the history and methods used in energy modelling and I will describe a limited number of representative models in order to illustrate the present state of the art. The review is not intended to be exhaustive or to provide a comparative evaluation of models designed for similar purposes. Rather, the models are reviewed to illustrate the advances and the structure of recent and current efforts by energy modellers.

Cover image; Title page; Table of Contents; Copyright; PREFACE; Chapter 1: THE ENERGY CRISIS; Publisher Summary; THE NATURE OF THE CRISIS; THE FUTURE-BRIGHT OR BLEAK?; Chapter 2: WORK, ENERGY, AND POWER; Publisher Summary; THE DEFINITION OF WORK; ENERGY; CONSERVATION OF ENERGY-FORMS OF ENERGY; ENERGY CONVERSION; EFFICIENCY IN ENERGY CONVERSIONS; POWER; ENERGY UNITS AND CONVERSIONS; QUESTIONS AND EXERCISES; Chapter 3: ENERGY CONSUMPTION-TODAY AND THE FUTURE; Publisher Summary; HOW MUCH ENERGY DO WE USE?; HOW DO WE USE OUR ENERGY?; ENERGY USAGE IN THE FUTURE; QUESTIONS AND EXERCISES

THE ARTICLE IS AN EXAMINATION OF AMERICAN POLICIES ON ENERGY SECURITY, WHICH, IT IS ARGUED, ARE POORLY RELATED TO US MILITARY-POLITICAL POLICIES. POSSIBLE POLICY OPTIONS AND THEIR DANGERS ARE REVIEWED, INCLUDING MILITARY ACTION AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK OPEC. THE AUTHOR THEN DISCUSSES ELEMENTS OF A SUCCESSFUL ENERGY STRATEGY, NOTING THE POTENTIAL ROLE TO BE PLAYED BY THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY.

Abundance, cleanliness and widespread distri bution are great incentives for the application of solar energy to man's energy requirements. Recent and impend ing fuel shortages, cost increases of energy and environ mental degradation have provided strong incentives for the development of solar energy for wide practical use. However, its low intensity and high variability impose severe econo mic problems in converting it to useful forms. Conversion of solar radiation to thermal, electrical and mechanical energy has been well demonstrated in numerous experi mental systems. Of these methods, those of greatest current interest are the production of heat for the heating and cooling of buildings and the direct, or indirect, conversion to elec tricity. In favorable locations, the costs of solar heating and cooling equipment under development appear to be nearly competitive with fuels; hence, this application is ex pected to be widespread within a very few years. Electric power from solar energy is not now competitive with conventional supply and is, therefore, a longer term possibility.