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Abstract. The probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis is one of the newest methods of estimating the amount of probabilistic displacement in fault surface rupture areas. Considering the strike-slip mechanism of the north Tabriz fault, Iran, using the earthquake method and historical earthquakes in 1721 and 1780, the surface displacement of the north Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the probabilistic displacement in different scenarios has been estimated. The north Tabriz fault's 50–60 km long section was selected as the source of possible surface rupture from its historical data. Two scenarios were considered according to probabilistic displacements, return periods, and magnitudes according to paleoseismic studies of the north Tabriz fault. For both scenarios, the probabilistic displacements for the exceedance rate of 5 % in 50, 475, and 2475 years for the probabilistic principle displacements (on the fault) of the north Tabriz fault have been estimated.

"Errare humanum est", a well known and widespread Latin proverb which states that: to err is human, and that people make mistakes all the time. However, what counts is that people must learn from mistakes. On these grounds Steve Jobs stated: "Sometimes when you innovate, you make mistakes. It is best to admit them quickly, and get on with improving your other innovations." Similarly, in learning new language, learners make mistakes, thus it is important to accept them, learn from them, discover the reason why they make them, improve and move on. The significance of studying errors is described by Corder as: "There have always been two justifications proposed for the study of learners' errors: the pedagogical justification, namely that a good understanding of the nature of error is necessary before a systematic means of eradicating them could be found, and the theoretical justification, which claims that a study of learners' errors is part of the systematic study of the learners' language which is itself necessary to an understanding of the process of second language acquisition" (Corder, 1982; 1). Thus the importance and the aim of this paper is analyzing errors in the process of second language acquisition and the way we teachers can benefit from mistakes to help students improve themselves while giving the proper feedback.

AbstractYoung children occasionally make scale errors– they attempt to fit their bodies into extremely small objects or attempt to fit a larger object into another, tiny, object. For example, a child might try to sit in a dollhouse‐sized chair or try to stuff a large doll into it. Scale error research was originally motivated by parents' and researchers' informal accounts of these behaviors. However, scale errors have only been documented using laboratory procedures designed to promote their occurrence. To formally document the occurrence of scale errors in everyday settings, we posted a survey on the internet. Across two studies, participants reported many examples of everyday scale errors that are similar to those observed in our labs and were committed by children of the same age. These findings establish that scale errors occur in the course of children's daily lives, lending further support to the account that these behaviors stem from general aspects of visual processing.

The article highlights the need to broaden the analysis of the quality of the survey results, taking into account the negative impact of certain operations of so-called editing input data, such as checking their accuracy and correction of errors. In the conclusions it underlines the need to extend the programs for academic lectures in statistics for analysis of the impact of processing operations on the quality of the results.

The fact that the literature tends to find optimistic biases in national fiscal projections has led to a growing recognition in the academic and policy arenas of the need for independent forecasts in the fiscal domain, prepared by independent agencies, such as the European Commission in the case of Europe. Against this background the aim of this paper is to test: (i) whether the forecasting performance of governments is indeed worse than that of international organizations, and (ii) whether fiscal projections prepared by international organizations are free from political economy distortions. The answer to these both questions is no: our results, based on real-time data for 15 European countries over the period 1999- 2007, point to the rejection of the two hypotheses under scrutiny. We motivate the empirical analysis on the basis of a model in which an independent agency tries to minimize the distance to the government forecast. Starting from the assumption that the government's information set includes private information not available to outside forecasters, we show how such a framework can help in understanding the observed empirical evidence. ; Las previsiones presupuestarias que preparan las autoridades nacionales tienden a presentar, en promedio, una visión optimista de la senda futura de las finanzas públicas. Este hecho ha sido probado en numerosos trabajos en particular, en el caso de Europa, en la última década. Por ello, se escuchan voces que piden que otras instituciones, independientes de los Gobiernos nacionales, asuman un papel más relevante en el proceso de planificación presupuestaria. En particular, en el caso de Europa, se menciona a la Comisión Europea. En este marco, el objetivo del presente documento es contrastar dos cuestiones muy concretas con respecto a las previsiones presupuestarias preparadas por las instituciones internacionales: i) ¿es la exactitud de dichas proyecciones mucho mejor que la de las preparadas por las autoridades nacionales?, y ii) ¿están libres dichas previsiones de distorsiones derivadas de factores tales como los ciclos electorales? Nuestros resultados, basados en una muestra de datos (previsiones) obtenidos de informes publicados en tiempo real para 15 países europeos en el período 1999-2007, señalan que la respuesta a las dos preguntas es negativa. Además de la evidencia empírica, en el documento se desarrolla un modelo teórico muy estilizado con el que se proporciona una posible explicación de los resultados empíricos. Dicha explicación se basa en la idea de que las autoridades nacionales disponen de más información que los analistas externos en todas las etapas de elaboración y seguimiento de los planes presupuestarios. Así pues, la institución independiente, al tratar de aproximarse lo más posible a la previsión del Gobierno (para reducir el déficit de acceso a la información), puede acabar incorporando en su propia previsión parte del sesgo político habitual en las proyecciones oficiales.