Suchergebnisse

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT: CYCLICAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY -- …BUT A SUBDUED MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK -- A COLLECTIVE, CONCERTED COMMITMENT TO LASTING GROWTH -- A. Strengthening Demand-Staying the Course with QE -- B. Delivering Fiscal Support within the SGP -- C. Balance Sheet Repair to Enhance Monetary Transmission -- D. Closing Structural Reform Gaps-Boosting Growth and Integration -- E. A Stronger, Simpler Economic Governance Framework -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. A Downside Scenario of Stagnation in the Euro Area -- 2. An Upside Scenario of Demand Support and Comprehensive Reforms -- 3. The NPL Problem in the Euro Area and Its Macro-Financial Implications -- 4. "Outcome-Based" Structural Reform Benchmarking -- FIGURES -- 1. High Frequency and Real Economy Developments -- 2. Inflation Developments -- 3. External Sector Developments -- 4. Monetary Policy Channels -- 5. Fiscal Developments and Policies -- 6. Banking Developments -- 7. Monitoring Sovereign QE -- 8. Fragmentation -- 9. Financial Stability -- TABLES -- 1. Risk Assessment Matrix -- 2. Main Economic Indicators, 2012-2020 -- 3. External Sector Assessment -- 4. Structural Reform Plans and Progress in Selected Euro Area Countries -- APPENDICES -- 1. Progress Against IMF Recommendations -- 2. Statistical Issues.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONJUNCTURE -- A. Recent Developments -- B. Baseline Outlook -- C. Risks Around the Baseline -- MONETARY POLICY -- RISK REDUCTION -- A. Fiscal Policies -- B. Structural Policies -- C. External Sector Policies -- D. Financial Sector Policies -- ARCHITECTURE -- A. Banking Union -- B. Capital Markets Union -- C. Fiscal Institutional Reforms -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Macroeconomic Impacts of Brexit -- 2. Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics -- 3. European Commission Proposals on Corporate Income Taxation -- 4. Capitalizing on Knowledge-Based Capital -- 5. Recent Policy Proposals on NPLs -- 6. Specific Steps Toward Capital Markets Union -- 7. Preparing the Financial Sector for Brexit -- 8. Some Background on Euro Clearing and Brexit -- 9. A Central Fiscal Capacity for Macroeconomic Stabilization -- TABLES -- 1. Main Economic Indicators, 2015-23 -- 2. External Sector Assessment -- 3. Risk Assessment Matrix -- 4. Structural Reform Plans and Progress in Selected Euro Area Countries -- ANNEXES -- I. Progress Against IMF Recommendations -- II. Statistical Issues.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- Glossary -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- DETERMINANTS OF EURO AREA BANK PROFITABILITY -- A. Introduction -- B. Conceptual and Empirical Framework -- C. Data, Key Trends, and Stylized Facts -- D. Econometric Analysis -- E. Conditional Profitability Distributions -- F. Weakest Bank Profits in 2016-An Illustrative Exercise -- G. Conclusions and Policy Implications -- References -- BALANCE SHEET-BASED INTERCONNECTEDNESS AND CONTAGION RISK ANALYSIS -- A. Bank-Level Analysis of Interbank Exposures and Contagion Risk -- B. Country-Level Analysis of Cross-Border Linkages and Contagion Risk -- C. Caveats -- D. Summary and Policy Implications -- References -- APPENDICES -- I. Euro Area: Stress Test Matrix (STeM) for the Banking Sector: Contagion Risks -- II. Methodology, Data, and Implementation -- MARKET-BASED INTERCONNECTEDNESS ANALYSIS -- A. Introduction -- B. General Framework: An Overview -- C. Data and Stylized Facts -- D. Pooled OLS Versus Quantile Regressions -- E. Conditional Spillover Distributions -- F. Conclusions and Policy Implications -- References -- APPENDICES -- I. Market and Balance Sheet Indicators -- II. Sample Description -- III. Pooled Estimation Strategy -- CONTINGENT CLAIMS ANALYSIS -- APPENDICES -- I. An Overview of the Structure of the CCA-MCS-GVAR Model -- II. List of Banks, Insurers, and Countries -- DATA GAPS IN THE NONBANK, NON-INSURANCE FINANCIAL SECTOR -- FIGURES -- 1. Euro Area Banks (Significant Institutions): Key Trends and Stylized Facts -- 2. Illustrative Conditional Profitability (ROE) Distributions -- 3. Illustrative Exercise: Bank Profitability, Growth, and NPLs -- 4. Banks' Cross-Border Exposures, June 2017 -- 5. Network Graphs, June 2017 -- 6. Intra-EA Interconnectedness Analysis, June 2017 -- 7. Cross-border Contagion Analysis, June 2017 -- 8. Bank Distress Sensitivity to Model Assumptions.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the euro area recovery is taking hold. Real output has expanded for four consecutive quarters, and financial market sentiment has improved markedly. Complementary policy actions have supported demand, boosted investor confidence, and eased financial conditions. At the national level, governments have made further progress repairing sovereign and bank balance sheets and implementing structure reforms to restore competitiveness. At the area-wide level, the ECB has taken a wider range of measures to support demand and address fragmentation. Over t

Cover -- CONTENTS -- Glossary -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- BACKGROUND -- A. Scope of the Review -- B. Progress and Experience So Far -- C. Legislative Proposals -- "COMPLETING" THE BANKING UNION -- A. European Deposit Insurance Scheme -- B. Financing Resolution -- C. Further Unification of the Regime -- D. Balancing Home-Host Interests -- E. MREL -- INSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGES -- A. Decision-Making Structure -- B. System-Wide Crisis Management -- ENHANCING OPERATIONAL CAPACITY -- A. Introduction -- B. Staffing -- C. Operational Readiness -- D. Resolution Preparation and Implementation -- E. Recovery and Resolution Planning -- F. Inter-Agency Cooperation -- DEPOSIT INSURANCE -- BOXES -- 1. The Recent Italian, Spanish, and Latvian Bank Intervention Cases: Chronology -- 2. European Deposit Insurance Scheme: Key Features -- 3 The Commission's Crisis Communications on State Aid to Financial Institutions -- 4. Home-Host Balance in Recovery and Resolution -- 5. Harmonizing the Hierarchy of Creditor Claims in Bank Insolvency and Bail-In Provisions -- 6. Decision-Making Structure for Resolution -- 7. Moratorium Proposal -- 8. Timeline SRB Resolution Planning -- TABLES -- 1. Recommendations on Bank Resolution and Crisis Management -- 2. Staffing of the Single Resolution Mechanism -- ANNEXES -- I. BRRD: Use of Selected National Options -- II. DGSD: Use of Selected National Options -- III. Recovery and Resolution Planning in the Absence of a Common Approach -- IV. The Recent Italian and Spanish Bank Intervention Cases: Bibliography.

EuroCoin in October indicates quarterly growth rate of -0.67 (q/q). The Q3 flash estimate for Euro Area GDP was -0.1%. Figure 1: Euro Area GDP growth rate (not AR) (red circle), and EuroCoin (blue line), both q/q (not AR). Source: Banca d'Italia. From CEPR release: In October, €-coin dropped significantly (to -0.67, from -0.18 in […]

Some important progress has been made since the crisis, belatedly and often imperfectly, in reforming the institutional framework of the Euro Area. However, the existential weaknesses - redenomination risk given doubts about the effectiveness of the Lender-of-Last-Resort function and the inadequacy of measures to address inherent divergence trends between member countries - have not been resolved. For as long as that is so, the euro area will remain on shaky ground. This report reviews proposals to strengthen the institutional setup of the euro area. A package is proposed that would rectify the over-reliance on the ECB as a firefighter, and put euro area institutions and member states - with the involvement of governments, parliaments and social partners - in charge of dealing with intra-euro area imbalances and keeping growth close to potential. The more a preventive approach can be reinforced, the less recourse is needed to euro-level emergency measures, the greater will be the confidence that such measures can be introduced without risking "moral hazard". ; Seit der Krise sind bei der Reform des institutionellen Rahmens des Euroraums echte Fortschritte erzielt worden, allerdings verspätet und oft unvollkommen. Jedoch sind die existenziellen Schwächen - das Risiko der Wiederernennung angesichts der Zweifel an der Wirksamkeit der Lender-of-Last-Resort-Funktion und der Unzulänglichkeit der Maßnahmen zur Bewältigung der inhärenten Divergenzen zwischen den Mitgliedstaaten - nicht behoben. Solange das so ist, wird der Euroraum auf unsicherem Boden bleiben. In diesem Report werden Vorschläge zur Stärkung der institutionellen Struktur des Euroraums erörtert. Es wird ein Paket vorgeschlagen, das die übermäßige Abhängigkeit von der EZB als Feuerwehrmann beheben und die Institutionen des Euroraums und die Mitgliedstaaten - unter Einbeziehung von Regierungen, nationalen Zentralbanken und Sozialpartnern - mit der Bewältigung von Ungleichgewichten innerhalb des Euroraums und der Aufrechterhaltung des Wachstums in der Nähe des Potenzials beauftragen würde. Je mehr ein präventiver Ansatz verstärkt werden kann, desto weniger Rückgriffe auf Notfallmaßnahmen auf Euro-Ebene erforderlich sind, desto größer wird das Vertrauen sein, dass solche Maßnahmen eingeführt werden können, ohne "moral hazard" zu riskieren.