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Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decreased policy rates by an astounding 1025 basis points over the November 2008 to November 2009 period. In this context, this paper addresses the following broad question: If an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime was not adopted, how much

This study1 holds for the formation of international financial crisis and political factors for economic crisis in Turkey, are evaluated in chronological order. The international arena and relevant studies conducted in Turkey work in the literature are assessed. The main purpose of the study is to hold the linkage between the crises and political stability in Turkey in details, and to examine the position of Turkey in this regard. The introduction part follows the literature survey on the models explaining causes and results of the crises, the second part of the study. In the third part, the formations of the world financial crises are studied. The fourth part, financial crisis in Turkey in 1994, 2000, 2001 and 2008 are reviewed and their political reasons are analyzed. In the last part of the study the results and recommendations are held. Political administrations have laid the grounds for an economic crisis in Turkey. In this study, the emergence of an economic crisis in Turkey and the developments after the crisis are chronologically examined and an explanation is offered as to the cause and effect relationship between the political administration and economic equilibrium in the country. Economic crises can be characterized as follows: high prices of consumables, high interest rates, current account deficits, budget deficits, structural defects in government finance, rising inflation and fixed currency applications, rising government debt, declining savings rates and increased dependency on foreign capital stock. Entering into the conditions of crisis during a time when the exchange value of the country-s national currency was rising, speculative finance movements and shrinking of foreign currency reserves happened due to expectations for devaluation and because of foreign investors- resistance to financing national debt, and a financial risk occurs. During the February 2001 crisis and immediately following, devaluation and reduction of value occurred in Turkey-s stock market. While changing over to the ...

"Incorporating a broad range of economic approaches, Understanding Financial Crises explores the merits of various arguments and theories which have been used to explain the causes of financial crises. The book explores eight of these different explanations: under-consumption, debt accumulation, financialization, income inequality, financial fragility, tendency of rate of profit to fall, human behavior and global imbalances. The introduction provides a brief overview of each argument along with a comparison of their relative merits. Each chapter then introduces one of the arguments, explores a historical case, and focuses on the insights that can be gleaned into the global crisis in 2007-2008. The book draws on insights from various schools of thought including post-Keynesian economics, Marxist economics, behavioral economics, neoclassical economics, and more, to provide a pluralist overview of the causes of economic crises in general and the Great Recession in particular. This book marks a significant contribution to the literature on economic and financial crises, political economy and heterodox economics. It is well suited to academicians, practitioners, and financial analysts working within the relevant fields. Ensar Yılmaz is a professor at Yıldız Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey, where he teaches in the Department of Economics. He is the author of several articles in the subjects of macroeconomics, financial regulation, income distribution and game theory."

"Incorporating a broad range of economic approaches, Understanding Financial Crises explores the merits of various arguments and theories which have been used to explain the causes of financial crises. The book explores eight of these different explanations: under-consumption, debt accumulation, financialization, income inequality, financial fragility, tendency of rate of profit to fall, human behavior and global imbalances. The introduction provides a brief overview of each argument along with a comparison of their relative merits. Each chapter then introduces one of the arguments, explores a historical case, and focuses on the insights that can be gleaned into the global crisis in 2007-2008. The book draws on insights from various schools of thought including post-Keynesian economics, Marxist economics, behavioral economics, neoclassical economics, and more, to provide a pluralist overview of the causes of economic crises in general and the Great Recession in particular. This book marks a significant contribution to the literature on economic and financial crises, political economy and heterodox economics. It is well suited to academicians, practitioners, and financial analysts working within the relevant fields. Ensar Yılmaz is a professor at Yıldız Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey, where he teaches in the Department of Economics. He is the author of several articles in the subjects of macroeconomics, financial regulation, income distribution and game theory"--

This important volume presents key contributions to the study of financial crises from many different areas of economics. The book offers an economic history of financial crises, empirical studies of crises in the modern era, and classic works on the theory of banking crises. It also covers specialized topics, with sections on currency crises and financial contagion. Undergraduate students of money, banking, macroeconomics and financial crises alike will find this collection to be an invaluable overview of a critical area of study

"Financial Crises" published on by Oxford University Press.

Why are some financial crises associated with political crises and some are not? Does political instability cause financial fragility or the other way around? What are the implications of political distortions for policy in countries experiencing financial turmoil? This paper studies these and other questions in a formal model of debt, default, and financial crisis. A key assumption is that the default decision is made by a government that has superior information than the public about the social costs of default. Citizens, however, can dismiss the government, and overrule its default decision, at the cost of a political crisis. If there is a divergence between the objectives of the government and its people, political crisis may emerge in equilibrium. For this to be the case, the foreign debt must be large enough, and international reserves low. When this political equilibrium is seen as a part of a larger investment problem, I show that there are equilibria in which crises are only financial, and equilibria in which default and political crises occur. In some cases, both kinds of equilibria coexist and, in this sense, a loss of confidence by foreign lenders can exacerbate the likelihood of a political crisis. If so, international intervention in financial markets may ensure financial and political stability at little cost. Policy analysis is delicate, however, and may require linking financial policies to political outcomes.

The paper examines the distributional consequences of financial crises based on the lessons of the past crises experiences of Argentina, Brazil, Korea, Mexico, and Turkey. It identifies the possible channels through which crises may affect functional and personal distribution of income. It concludes that the crises of the last two decades have both pro-capital and pro-finance distributional outcomes. JEL classification: D31, E25, O15, G01

Text in English; Abstract: English and Turkish ; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 95-98) ; xvi, 106 leaves ; Turkey, one of the most rapidly growing emerging market, is a heaven for investors with young population, dynamic private sector, and liberalised financial markets. In this respect, the question of "Why does the Turkish economy always face with either a crisis or a program for guiding her out of a crisis?", comes to minds. In the analysis period of this research, the Turkish economy has experienced with two major crisis in 1994 and 2000, which are called as "balance of payment crisis". In the period, before 1994 crisis had happened, although the tight monetary and fiscal policies were supposed to be implemented, neither of them were successfully executed. In the final crisis, Turkey launched a comprehensive and consistent disinflation program at the beginning of 2000 in order to stabilise the economy, which resulted as the abondenment of the crawling peg exchange rate regime- the anchor of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)- drawn back the economic reform program, brought instant and massive market devaluation, souring inflation, and tumbling financial markets. Today, Turkish government aim is to keep the window of Turkey open to all investors and widen it enough to ensure that the government meets its borrowing requirements, banks make profit in subsidising the government while the rest of the economy continues to function with reasonable rates on loans and attractive interest on deposits in order to proper functioning of the economy. This research makes a brief survey on the relationship between financial system, particularly in capital markets and economic crisis, in order to give a general background for the role of capital market in the case of Turkey by taking main macroeconomic indicators as the leading variables and their effects on ISE as the coincidental. In the first part of the research, the emerging history of Turkish Republic is viewed for making clear the path, which Turkey followed as a developing country. In addition, the development of financial markets in Turkey is historically reviewed. After this introductory information, the effects of the deregulation and industrialisation are discussed. The discussion reflects the impacts of liberalisation upon the Turkish economy and financial markets. In the second part of this research, 1994 crisis is explained, the most severe crisis ever lived in Turkey of all times. This part continues with the chronology of the 1994 crisis and is followed by economic indicators in terms of results of the economic crisis. In the third part of this research, Turkey's problems remained the same including the high inflation rate. Turkish economy was launched a comprehensive and consistent disinflation program again. This part is followed by January 2000 and February 2001 crisis, which became as the most severe and destructive crisis ever lived in Republic of Turkey's history, worse than 1994 crisis, and resulted as another burden on Turkish economy. In the fourth part of this research, Turkish Capital Markets' development is reviewed particularly and ISE is considered for the assessment of the role of the development of Turkish Capital Markets. Current part is followed by the condition of ISE during the period 1994 through 2000, including movements in the size and the volume of market with major events of daily market environment. In the last part of this research, both crises are examined by using the financial instruments' returns in comparison with the ISE, the most efficient capital market of Turkey. Interest rates, T-Bill, foreign exchange market, money supply, and industrial production monthly returns are considered for plotting the analysis successfully on the ISE. In addition, for determining the relation between the ISE and other variables one-by-one, each of these returns are graphed. According to the results of graphs, the relation between 1994 and 2000 crises are brought into open and the reasons for 2000 crisis' getting longer than 1994 crisis are tried to be achieved. Relevant data and information have been obtained from several books and public sources such as company document press releases' annual reports, governments' statistics, databases, especially Proquest, and finally state's official web-sites and organisations' web-sites for periodic data which has been cross checked and correlated with statistics issued by the several organisations. Finally, it should be noted that, the capital markets is the most important arm of financial sector for Turkey. The future of capital markets in Turkey are highly interrelated with the stabilisation and the development in the entire economy. A better comprehension of the economic development and stabilisation package after the crisis helped public to understand the vital importance of entire capital markets. ; Türkiye genç nüfusu, dinamik özel sektör yatırımları, ve liberalleşmiş finansal piyasalarıyla, hızla büyüyen ve gelişmekte olan pazarlardan biri olarak yatırımcılar açısından cazibesini korumaktadır. Bu bağlamda, " neden Türk ekonomisi sıklıkla finansal krizlere maruz kalarak krizle baş etme programlarıyla karşı karşıya geliyor? "sorusu akıllara geliyor. Çalışmanın analiz dönemleri, 1994 ve 2000 yıllarında Türkiye'nin maruz kaldığı "ödemeler dengesi krizleri" olarak adlandırılan 2 büyük krizi kapsamaktadır, 1994 krizi öncesinde gerçekleşen krizlerde sıkı para ve mali politikaları uygulanmaya çalışıldı ancak başarılı sonuçlar alınamadı. Son yaşanan krizde, Türkiye ekonomiyi istikrara ulaştırabilmek için dalgalı kur rejimini bırakarak 2000 yılı başında kapsamlı ve tutarlı enflasyonla mücadele programı başlattı, Türkiye bant içinde dalgalanma rejimi uygulamaya başlamıştır. Ancak yaşanan 2001 kriziyle ekonomik reform programı geri çekilmiş devalüasyon yaşanmış ve finansal piyasalar dalgalanmıştır. Kriz sonrasında Türkiye dalgalı kur rejimine geçtiğini duyurmuştur. Bugün, Türk hükümetinin amacı, Türkiye'nin penceresini tüm yatırımcılara açık tutmak ve olabildiğince genişletmek bu sayede hükümet borçlanma gereksinimlerini giderirken, bankalar devleti sübvanse ederek kazanacaklar, ekonominin geri kalanı makul kredi düzeyinden faydalanırken, mevduat faizi kazanmak cazip hale gelebilecektir. Bu çalışma, finansal sistemle sermaye piyasaları arasında yaşanan mali krizlerin incelemesi üzerinedir, Türkiye'deki sermaye piyasasının rolünün incelenmesi başlıca makroekonomik göstergeleri kullanarak değişkenlerin İMKB üzerindeki tesadüfi etkileri gösterilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmanın birinci bölümünde, Türkiye Cumhuriyet'inin gelişmekte olan bir ülke olarak izlediği yolu açıklamakla başlamak gerekiyor. Bu duruma ek olarak, Türkiye'deki finansal piyasaların gelişimi de tarihsel olarak gözden geçirilmiştir. Başlangıç bilgilerden sonra, fiyat serbestisi ve sanayileşme etkileri tartışılmıştır. İnceleme Türk ekonomisi ve mali piyasalar üzerindeki. küreselleşmenin etkilerini yansıtmaktadır. Araştırmanın ikinci bölümünde ise, Türkiye'de yaşanan tüm zamanların en ağır krizi olan 1994 krizi açıklanmıştır. Bu bölüm 1994 krizinin kronolojisi ile devam ederken ekonomik krizin sonuçları açısından ekonomik göstergeler takip edilmektedir. Bu araştırmanın üçüncü bölümünde, Türkiye'nin yüksek enflasyon dahil aynı kalan sorunları paylaşılmıştır. Bu dönemde Türk ekonomisine yeniden kapsamlı ve tutarlı bir enflasyon düşürme programı başlatıldı. İlgili bölümde, Türkiye tarihinin ve Cumhuriyeti'nin yaşamış olduğu en ağır ve yıkıcı krizlerden olan Ocak 2000 ve Şubat 2001 krizleri takip ediyor. Çalışmanın dördüncü bölümde ise, özellikle Türk Sermaye Piyasasındaki gelişmeler gözden geçirilmiştir ve İMKB'nin bu gelişmedeki rolü değerlendirilmiştir. İMKB'nin günlük piyasalarda gerçekleşen önemli olaylar sonucunda işlemlerinin büyüklüğü ve hacmi 1994 ten 2000 yılına kadar uzanan durumu incelenmiştir. Son bölümde, her iki krizde finansal enstrümanların getirileri IMKB ile karşılaştırılarak incelenmiştir. Faiz oranları, hazine bonoları, döviz piyasası, para arzı ve sanayi üretimi aylık getirileri dikkate alınmıştır. Hazırlanan grafiklerin sonuçlarına göre, 1994 ve 2000 krizleri arasındaki ilişkiye bakılmıştır ve değerlendirme sonucunda 2000 krizinin 1994 krizinde daha uzun sürdüğü açıklanmıştır. Son olarak, sermaye piyasaları Türkiye'de finansal sektörün en önemli kolu olarak dikkate alınmalıdır. Türkiye'de sermaye piyasalarının geleceği ekonominin tamamının gelişimi ve istikrarı ile ilişkilidir. Kriz sonrası ekonomik gelişmenin ve uygulanan istikrar paketinin daha iyi anlaşılması kamunun sermaye piyasalarının önemini anlamasına yardımcı olacaktır.

This study empirically observes the leading indicators of 1994, 2000/2001 and 2009 Turkish financial crises. Stepwise regression, Probit and Logit models have been applied to three sets of quarterly data covering the periods of Q1-1990 to Q4- 1999 to investigate the leading indicators of the 1994 crisis, from Q3-1996 to Q2-2005 to capture the 2000/2001 twin crises, and from Q3-2005 to Q3-2015 to see the global financial crisis effect on Turkey. Results assert that the three crises of Turkey are different in structure and each has different characteristics with different leading indicators. The results provide a new set of leading indicators that includes capital adequacy and long-term interest rates as well as international variables, and these indicators are compatible with the new structure of Turkish economy. Regulators and policymakers should pay close attention to macroeconomic variables and the banking sector stability of Turkey as well as the status of the global economy as the results show that many banking and international related variables increase the probability of the crisis, this can be through imposing tighter regulations on banks to avoid default and credit risk, following the liquidity levels in the markets and closely following the stability of global economic indicators. Keywords: Financial crisis, Turkey, stepwise regression, probit and logit models, leading indicators. ; ÖZ: Bu çalışmada, 1994, 2000/2001 ve 2009 Türkiye finansal krizlerinin öncü göstergeleri Stepwise regresyon, Probit ve Logit tahmin yöntemleri kullanılarak ampirik olarak incelenmiştir. 1990-2015 yıllarını kapsayan çeyreklik veri seti her bir krizin öncü göstergelerinin tespit edilebilmesi amacıyla 1990-1999, 1996-2005, 2005-2015 olmak üzere üç alt gruba ayrılmıştır. Sonuçlar, Türkiye'de yaşanan her üç krizin de birbirinden yapısal olarak belirli ölçüde farklı olduğunu göstermiş ve her bir kriz için elde edilen öncü göstergelerde farklılıklar olduğu görülmüştür. Çalışma sermaye yeterliliği, uzun vadeli faiz oranları ile uluslararası değişkenleri içeren ve Türk ekonomisinin değişen yapısıyla uyumlu yeni bir öncü göstergeler seti önermektedir. Bulgular bankacılık sektörü ile ilgili çeşitli değişkenlerin yanında, ülke dışında yaşanan olumsuz gelişmelerin de ülkede bir kriz yaşanma ihtimalini artırdığını göstermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar politika yapıcıların ve düzenleyici organların ülkenin temel makroekonomik göstergeleri yanında, küresel ekonomideki gelişmeleri de yakından takip etmelerinin ve bankacılık sektöründe istikrarın sağlanmasının önemine işaret etmektedir. Uygulanabilecek önlemler arasında piyasalardaki likidite seviyesinin kontrol altında tutulması, kredi riskini azaltabilmek için bankaların gözetim-denetimine önem verilmesi ve küresel ekonomik şoklara karşı alınacak önlemlerin planlanması sayılabilir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Finansal kriz, Türkiye, stepwise regresyonu, probit ve legit modelleri, öncü göstergeler. ; Master of Science in Banking and Finance. Thesis (M.S.)--Eastern Mediterranean University, Faculty of Business and Economics, Dept. of Banking and Finance, 2017. Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Korhan K. Gökmenoğlu.